Welcome to the Safran First Quarter 2026 Revenue. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to your host, Olivier Andriès, Safran CEO, and Pascal Bantegnie, Group CFO. Mr. Andriès, please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We had a very strong first quarter with revenue reaching EUR 8.6 billion, up 23% organically. We continue to benefit from a solid momentum in both aerospace and defense, with little to no impact from the Middle East conflict so far. Once again, our main growth driver is aftermarket. We saw vigorous demand across the board, especially for commercial engines and nacelle. Sales of spare parts for civil aircraft engines were up 29%, mostly thanks to the CFM56. Services for civil aircraft engines increased by 43%, with LEAP rate of flight hour contracts leading the way. At the same time, building on our excellent industrial performance in the second half of 2025, we continued the LEAP ramp up with more than 500 deliveries this quarter, up 63% year-on-year and marking the third consecutive quarter with deliveries above this level.
Overall, the strength of our Q1 performance reinforces our confidence in reaching the high end of our full year 2026 guidance. That said, we remain cautious for the coming months given the uncertainty around the scale, duration and potential impact of the Middle East conflict, notably on air traffic. A few words on our portfolio management. In January, we completed the divestment of Safran Passenger Innovations, and more recently we announced the acquisition of a partner, Syntony, leader in resilient navigation technologies for complex and denied environments. Turning to slide four. We continue to raise our industrial capacity for the ramp up in both civil and defense activities. We recently announced two new facilities to support Airbus and Boeing ramp up, one in Morocco dedicated to the A320 landing gear and another one in Belgium for compressor components, which will equip the LEAP, the GEnx, and the GE9X engines.
In addition, we just announced a EUR 150 million investment in Gennevilliers for a new 30,000-ton forging press. This will support the LEAP ramp up as well as our military program, further reinforcing our resilience in forged parts. In defense, we signed an MoU with EDGE Group in the UAE for the development, the production, the commercialization of advanced air to ground weapon system. This is yet another example of the momentum in our defense activities and our ability to forge meaningful partnerships. On the commercial side, we are pleased to see our Arrius 2D helicopter turbine selected to power Guimbal's new GrandCabri G5 helicopter. We are also keeping a strong focus on innovation and future technologies. The ENGINeUS electric motor was recently honored at the 2026 Aviation Week Laureates, marking a significant achievement of the first electric motor to be certified for hybrid and electric aircraft.
It was also selected to power the fully electric Bristell B23 Energic aircraft. With that, I will now hand over to Pascal to walk you through the Q1 revenue in more detail.
Thank you, Olivier. Good morning, everyone. Let me give you a quick update on FX. Earlier in the quarter, we saw the euro to dollar rate jump up to almost 121, but it then settled back down into a more favorable range between 114-116 in March before stabilizing around 117 this week, largely in the context of the Middle East crisis. We use this environment to keep building out our hedging positions for 2029, and I'm pleased to say we are now 80% hedged for that year. In this context, we are confirming our 2026 hedge rate at $112 per euro. As of March 2026, our hedge books stood at $59 billion, which continues to give us strong visibility and protection against currency movements. Looking further ahead for 2027 and 2028, we are still targeting a hedge rate of 112.
For 2029, we are aiming for a range between 112 and 114 based on the market rate today. Now moving on to slide seven. In Q1 2026, our revenue reached EUR 8.6 billion, which is a 19% increase year-over-year or 23% organically. Organically, that's almost EUR 1.7 billion more than last year, driven by both our services and original equipment businesses. On the currency front, we did see a negative impact of 8.5%, mainly because the average euro-dollar rate was less favorable, 117 in Q1 2026 compared to 105 a year ago. In concrete terms, that meant a hit of about EUR 600 million on our revenue. Lastly, scope effects added around 4%, mainly thanks to the acquisition of Collins' actuation and flight control business last July, which contributed nearly EUR 400 million, and this was partly offset by the divestment of Safran Passenger Innovations for nearly EUR 100 million.
Turning to slide eight. Let me give you a quick overview of our revenue by activity. Starting with propulsion. Revenue reached EUR 4.6 billion, which is a 33% organic increase. The civil engine aftermarket delivered a particularly strong performance. Spare parts were up 29% and the main driver here was again, the CFM56, which benefited from a favorable comparison against Q1 2025. The strong results also build on the momentum we saw in the second half of last year, where we experienced a significant increase in work scope. In addition, the LEAP third-party network kept growing. Also, its revenues are still modest compared to the CFM56. Looking now at services, we saw a 43% increase, mainly driven by the LEAP rate per flight hour contracts with volume, work scope, and also favorable comparison basis since margin recognition for the LEAP- 1A only started in the second quarter of last year.
On the OE side, we delivered 520 LEAP engines this quarter, up 63% year-over-year. This substantial increase reflects both a ramp-up, marking three quarters in a row with more than 500 deliveries and again, a favorable comparison base. Moving on to equipment and defense. Revenue grew by 13.5% organically year-over-year, or 11.9% if we exclude the transfer of the Safran Ventilation Systems from aircraft interiors. We continue to support the ramp-up at Airbus and Boeing with deliveries of critical equipment such as the nacelle for the A320neo, all electrical systems and wiring for the 737 MAX, landing gear for the A330neo and the 787. In defense, we benefited once again from strong global demand, especially for electronics, inertial navigation system, and guidance systems.
Aftermarket services also grew across the board, particularly nacelles for the A320 and A380, and also for electrical system and wiring on the A380. Turning to aircraft interiors, we saw 9.2% organic growth or 14.8% before the transfer of Safran Ventilation Systems. Growth in original equipment was led by very strong cabin deliveries and favorable pricing in business class seats despite lower volumes. Aftermarket services also increased, mainly driven by cabin activities for airlines in North America, Asia, and the Middle East. Turning to slide nine. We are continuing to deliver on our EUR 5 billion share buyback program. In the first quarter of 2026, we repurchased 1.6 million shares totaling EUR 500 million.
These shares are set to be canceled by the end of the year, and I would like to highlight that a new tranche of EUR 375 million of the buyback will be launched in the coming days. On the debt side, we redeemed the EUR 700 million bond issued back in March 2021 as it reached maturity this March. This redemption has no impact on our net debt position and our long-term debt profile, as shown on the graph, is long-dated and now primarily made up of bonds and USPP. Finally, just as a reminder, Safran will propose to its shareholder a dividend of EUR 3.35 per share for the 2025 fiscal year. This represents a total payout of EUR 1.4 billion scheduled to be paid on May 28th. Olivier, back to you.
Thank you, Pascal. Our Q1 performance and the strong momentum we continue to see across both civil aerospace and defense gives us strong confidence in our ability to reach the high end of our full year 2026 target and guidance. Nevertheless, we remain cautious as the situation in the Middle East remains fluid and its potential effects, notably on air traffic, are still uncertain. In any case, the first half of the year should remain largely unaffected. Thank you, and we will now be happy to take your questions.
Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Once again, it's star one one to ask a question and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. We are now going to proceed with our first question. The question's come from the line of Olivier Brochet from Rothschild & Co. Please ask your question.
Yes. Good morning, Olivier and Pascal. I wanted to discuss the potential difficulties that the airlines might see later in the year and if they decide to defer shop visits. Do you have signals that others might step in actually to take over the slots that would have been freed up? That would be the first question. The second one is on spare engines. If there is traffic slowdown, do you think that airlines will effectively reduce their spare engine purchase? The last one is, you discussed in the press release, missile propulsion. Can you maybe tell us how significant it is, sort of growth that we should expect to the end of the decade and these sort of things, please?
Hello Olivier. Airlines. Interestingly, I spent two days last week in Hamburg at what we call the Aircraft Interiors Expo. That's interesting because this is an opportunity to meet many, many airlines. During those two days, I met about 20 of them, coming from everywhere, Americas, Europe, Middle East, Asia, India, China. What's interesting is that I got no indication at all that there is any potential acceleration in the pace of retirements of aircraft. As of today, if we look at Q1, there has been 44 CFM56 powered aircraft being retired, which is less than 2%. It's about 1.5%. In the last three, four years, most of the airlines are mainly complaining about the shortage of capacity, of aircraft capacity. There is no. Even nobody envisions, as we speak, to accelerate the pace of retirement.
I'm confident that the pace of retirement will remain low. Lowest ever, by the way, lower than before COVID in 2026, and I don't expect that to pick up in 2027. That's one. Now, when we look at shop visits. In Q1, we've seen removals of the wing of engines in line with our expectations in Q1, meaning that in Q2, we will see induction into the shop in line with our expectation. This will feed engine output, considering the turnaround time in the shop. This will feed the engine output in Q3 in line with our expectation. All in all, we are quite confident that, let's say the volume of shop visits this year will be in line with our expectation.
We have been positively surprised in Q1 by the high number of shop visits with a heavy work scope, in fact, higher than what we anticipated. This is why, as we speak, and as you've seen, we are indeed ahead of our trajectory in Q1. We still expect to be ahead of our trajectory at the end of H1. This is why this is fueling high confidence to meet the high end of our target.
That's very clear.
Spare engines. On the contrary, the appetite for spare engine is very, very significant, in fact. We would be able to produce even more engines than what we have planned for in 2026. There would be an appetite for the airframers to take them, but there would be a strong appetite as well from the airlines to take them. No slowdown for spare engines. You had a question on missile propulsion. As I think I mentioned it, we have decided 18 months ago to invest EUR 100 million in our missile propulsion business to increase the capacity by five. We see today on our missile propulsion business, we see an increase. We forecast an increase of 20% in 2026 versus 2025. We think, this is what we see, because we have a backlog of orders.
We think that our production is going to be multiplied between now and 2030 by a factor of four to five. There's a big appetite for what we call munitions. This indeed is feeding a strong backlog for missiles and also propulsion, but also seekers and guidance kits.
Okay. Thank you, Olivier. Could you give us a sense of how significant that business is in a missile for you?
No, Olivier, good morning. We won't provide such a detail, but the kind of growth rate we enjoy in 2026 is clearly in the 20s%.
I can at least give you just an indication, not a detail, but we are talking about a few hundred millions.
Okay. That's very helpful. Much appreciated. Thank you very much.
We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question's come from the line of Benjamin Heelan from Bank of America. Please ask your question.
Yes. Morning, guys. Hope you're both well. I wanted to come back initially on the situation in the Middle East, and Olivier, your comments about being confident to reach the high end of the guide because there is clearly a scenario where this situation drags on, and it does become quite difficult for a lot of airlines across the world. You're confident on reaching the high end of the guidance, but can you help us understand from a conflict scenario, like how long are you anticipating within that guide that this situation drags on for? That will be the first question. The second question is, you mentioned little to no impact so far. In terms of both March and April, have you seen requests for small reductions in scope or delays to some deliveries of spare parts?
I'd just be interested in the last six, seven weeks, what you've actually seen on the ground in terms of scope of shop visits and spare parts requests. On the LEAP, obviously a very strong improvement in deliveries. Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing from a supply chain perspective? Have you seen any incremental tightness, given what's going on in the Middle East on the LEAP supply chain in particular? Are you still on track with the LEAP-1B [MAVERICK] blade introduction in the first half? Thank you.
Hello, Ben. A lot of questions. On the Middle East, frankly speaking, it's really early to comment or speculate on how long the Gulf crisis will last and how this will unfold. I mean, I don't have a crystal ball on that. Of course, it has lasted for now almost one month and a half, probably it will last more, so a few months. I hope no more. We'll see. We've not seen any indication yet of any slowdown. It's very clear, we've not seen any indication of any slowdown of engine removals or engine induction. We have not seen any indication of reduction of work scope. As I said, we've been very positively surprised, in fact, by the higher number in the global mix of shop visit, in the higher number of shop visit with a heavy work scope.
In terms of volume of shop visit, we are in line with our expectation. In terms of price, we could anticipate, so we are in line. The positive surprise has come from, let's say, a heavier work scope on average than anticipated. No indication of any slowdown. Again, in Q1, and again, we don't expect anything in Q2 as well. We expect to have a strong H1. Supply chain. What we anticipate and what we've seen is, let's say, a significant price increase in some specific raw materials, which basically has a cost impact for us indeed. We see that as potentially a consequence of the conflict or whatever. I can give you two or three example. Cobalt, tungsten are typical example where the prices have hiked quite significantly.
We manage that, of course, and we had the buffer and the room to absorb that cost increase on specific raw materials.
Good morning, Ben. If I may add, I know that you sit in Dubai, so I hope all is well for you and your family. Interestingly, a year ago, it was all about the tariff. If I may discuss a tailwind that we will have in 2026 that may absorb any headwinds that could come up from the Middle East conflict, is about tariff.
For example, in February I mentioned that the expected impact of tariff in 2026 should be in the range of EUR 400 million. Given the Supreme Court's decision months ago, now our expectation is much less than that, below EUR 50 million. Okay? That's a tailwind. In addition to that, since two days now, CBP has opened a platform to reclaim the paid tariff for 2025, and we are claiming up to $100 million. This is typically a tailwind that we could enjoy in 2026 to offset any impact, if any, during the second half of the year or in 2027.
Super clear. Thank you both.
We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question's come from the line of Christophe Menard from Deutsche Bank. Please ask your question.
Yes. Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I had two questions, one on aftermarket and the other one on defense. On aftermarket, you mentioned CFM56 work scope. What about GE90? Is it also strong, or where do you see work scope evolving in the rest of the year? On defense, can you comment on the LPM boost that we saw and the impact on your midterm guidance? Thank you very much.
Hello, Christophe. Yes, on what we call our first-engine, especially GE90, we've seen a significant growth, and this has contributed as well to our spare parts revenue growth in Q1. We've seen quite also an increase of work scope as well on the GE90. It has contributed to the growth, which again is a good news, because as you know, when we look at the Gulf share of the global air traffic, it accounts for about 5% of narrow body, but 20% of the wide body. It's been a good news. We see that continuing in Q2. On defense, yes, the LPM, as you call it, in France, the Loi de Programmation Militaire, basically is going to be, let's say, augmented with a decision to increase the spending between now and 2030 by EUR 36 billion on top of the already decided EUR 400 billion spending in this period.
Announcement has been made that a part of it would be dedicated to what is called munitions. Munitions means missiles and other ingredients for missiles. As I said, guidance kits, seekers, missile propulsion. Yes, it's a boost indeed. On top of that, just as a reminder, about 80% of our revenues in defense are related to export, so not France. We see a big boost here as well, especially in Europe.
Okay, thank you. The LPM boost is probably not enough for you to reconsider your midterm guidance, just on the back of that EUR 36 billion boost.
It's a good tailwind, and a good contributor, but it reinforces our confidence, I would say, to meet the high end of our guidance.
Thank you very much.
We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question's come from the line of Robert Stallard from Vertical Research. Please ask your question. Hello, Robert Stallard, your line is open. You may ask your question.
Hello, can you hear me?
Yes, Robert.
Oh, sorry. I muted myself. Good morning, guys. Couple of questions from me. First of all, earlier this week GE gave a new basis on airline activity for its forecast and its 2026 guidance, and I was wondering if you'd done anything similar in your guidance. Secondly, on interiors, Boeing was highlighting continued seat certification issues on the 787 yesterday. I was wondering if that had any impact on you in the first quarter. Thank you.
Hello, Bob. Airline activity. We have not gone through a detail, let's say, exercise of forecasting airline activities. Of course, we are studying various scenarios depending on how long the crisis will last. Again, it's very early. I don't want to speculate, so it's too early to comment on that. Again, we believe that the wide body is more impacted than the narrow body by this crisis in terms of overall number of cycles for the full year 2026. So impact could be, let's say, higher on wide bodies than on narrow bodies. About seats certification, yes. This is an industry-wide, let's say, issue, as we have already commented. The certification, the airworthiness authorities have significantly tightened their interpretation of certification rules. Therefore, we are in a situation sometimes where we have delivered the seats to the airframe and the aircraft is ready to be delivered.
We still wait for the green light of seat certification. It happens, and again, it is one of the issues that as an industry, and it's really something that we work on with the airframers. We need to find a way to unlock and to ease because it does have an impact on aircraft deliveries. Now, interestingly, and again, I refer to my two days in Abu last week. I've been again surprised by the level of the demand for new premium seats, new business class seats and first class seats, which largely exceeds the supply. We are in a situation where seat suppliers are quite often in a position to no bid, to request for proposal just simply because the demand is largely exceeding the supply.
The reason for that is that many airlines have launched big retrofit program, and they are investing tens of millions for retrofitting their fleet of A380s, 777, 787, A350s. This comes on top of, let's say, the line fleet ramp-up, especially on A350, 787 and 777. We are in an interesting situation where we still need to unlock those certification issues. The demand is incredibly strong.
That's great. Thanks so much, Olivier.
We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question's come from the line of Ian Douglas-Pennant from UBS. Please ask your question.
Thanks very much for taking my question. Yes, I have a few, please. The first, just on going back to the guidance this year. Q1 has been, as you said, significantly ahead of your expectations. You sound extremely clear that we're not going to see an impact from the Middle East, at least this year, by the sounds of things. Even if we look back at past cycles, there's been a lag of 12 to 18 months between airline financials and your financials. Could you just help me understand why it is that you haven't increased your guidance on any metric this quarter, please? Secondly, on LEAP, just looking at the production rates that we've seen in Q1, am I correct in thinking that you're tracking ahead of your production targets for the year, or am I overreading into one quarter's numbers?
Then just finally on workscopes, can you just help us understand in absolute terms how to think about where workscopes are today? This has been a driver of kind of upgrades to your expectations, I think, over at least the last 18 months, if not longer. Can you help us understand in absolute terms how high they are and what scope therefore this has to increase further from here or decrease? If these normalize, how should we think about that? I'm just struggling to size the absolute workscope effect. Thank you.
Good morning, Ian. This is Pascal. Okay, on your first question, as we only disclose the revenue for the first quarter as we do as well for the third quarter, the market has no reference for the EBIT at the end of March or the cash at end of March. This is why, and given the uncertainty we have, this is why we decided just to reaffirm the current guidance and reaffirm as well the assumptions behind this guidance in terms of LEAP deliveries, spare parts, revenue growth mid-teens and services revenue growth about 20%.
As we clearly said, Q1 is well ahead of these numbers. We strongly believe that at the end of June we will be largely ahead of these numbers. There is clearly an upside opportunity when we will publish our half year results in July, that we will revise upwards at least the underlying assumptions behind the guidance, and then we'll see how it does translate in terms of numbers in EBIT or in cash. It's not the right timing, and we usually never upgrade our guidance or revise our guidance, when we only publish a revenue number.
Hello, Ian. On LEAP production, I can say we have guided cautiously at 15%. We are in line with our production plan. We are in line. With our guidance, we would be above 2,000 engines being produced this year. This quarter we are above 500, so we are in line. It may well be that we do a little bit better, as again, we have guided cautiously at 15%.
On the work scope.
Work scope. Yes. In fact, there's quite a high number of shop visits with a full scope of work, addressing not only the core engine, as we say, the core engine being the hot section plus the HP compressor, but also the fan and the low-pressure turbine. Basically what we see is that we have an unprecedented proportion of shop visits with a full scope of work. We should not expect the work scope to continue to increase. We should expect, at least this year, let's say, we've reached this peak in terms of work scope, and we expect that to continue along the year.
If I put that in different words, if I split between shop visit growth, pricing, and work scope, when you look to the +29% revenue growth in Q1, at least for the CFM56, there was no shop visit growth over Q1 last year. Pricing effects, which we had in August last year, was mid to high single digit, meaning that the rest of the performance is coming from the work scope. It gives you an order of magnitude how huge is the impact coming from the work scope.
Could I just ask a follow-up there, and I hope it's quick. In the scenario that fuel prices stay structurally elevated and so airlines are forced to reevaluate their maintenance plans going forward, is there any reason why that work scope cannot decline by a similar magnitude?
Again, as a matter of fact, we don't have any indication of that following our discussion with any airlines as of today. We don't see any indication of that. Again, I don't have a crystal ball, so I don't know what's going to happen in 2027 or so. But the fact is that airlines have learned from the past years that it's wise for them to make sure they have enough capacity. This is why, again, we don't see any, let's say, airline envisioning accelerating pace of retirements or, let's say today, trending towards telling us that they are going to reduce the work scope. We don't see that today.
If we look to the CFM56 utilization pre and post the conflict, it has remained stable so far. We have no indication at all that there will be a reduction in scope or in number of shop visits for the months to come.
Thank you very much. Appreciate your help in uncertain times. Thank you.
Thank you.
We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question comes from the line of Chloé Lemarié from Jefferies. Please ask your question.
Yes, good morning. Thank you, Olivier and Pascal, for the detailed view on shop visits volume and work scope. If I could follow up on, actually, on pricing and how this works from your end. Obviously, I guess the list pricing increase, you probably already set them and kind of made them known to airlines. In terms of the discounts that you grant them, when does this discussion happen? Have you already done that throughout the end of the year? Does that happen at the time of the shop visits? If you could help us understand how things could move versus your initial view on this. My second question is on services. We're obviously seeing a very strong quarter again. I'm assuming LEAP contracts as the main driver.
How should we think about the margin evolution there, given that you're now recording profitability on the 1B as well, please? Thank you.
First, good morning, Chloé. On pricing, we have not yet finalized and completed the discussion with GE for what we will do on the 1st of August. As you know, on our side, the intent is always to have a couple of points above inflation. Inflation may be the uncertain or the unknown parameter so far. We will have to think twice about what we do the next 1st of August for the catalog list price for CFM56 spare parts and for the LEAP as well. Do we grant a discount today to airlines? First, we have not received any demand for that. Discounts that airlines are benefiting from are the ones that are very usual depending on the size of their fleet, the importance they have for CFM. There is nothing new, at least related to the Middle East conflict.
Now on services, we did enjoy a very strong 43% year-over-year growth, which is well above our underlying assumption of 20% for the full year. It bodes well for the rest of the year. In terms of margin, we started to recognize LEAP-1A, LEAP RP FH margin last year, and our partner confirmed that they will introduce the [MAVERICK] HPT blade on the LEAP-1B during the summer months, June, July. It will trigger the recognition of margin on those contracts. You will expect, let's say, in H2, that Safran will recognize not only the 2026 LEAP-1B RPFH margin, but the past margin, which was unrecognized so far. There will be, as we had last year, one-time effect lower than what we had on the LEAP-1A, but still a one-time effect coming from this new margin recognition on the LEAP RPFH contracts.
That's on H2 that you're recognizing versus H1 for the 1A last year, right?
Last year it has started in Q2. Yeah, in Q2. We started to recognize margins in Q2.
Okay. Very clear.
We load up in H1. Yeah. Yes.
Perfect. Thank you so much.
Thank you, Chloé.
We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question come from the line of Kenneth Herbert from RBC Capital Markets. Please ask your question.
Yes. Hi, good morning, Olivier and Pascal. Two questions. First, investors are very focused today on the uncertainty into 2027. I can appreciate services this year. You've got relatively good visibility and conversations with airlines remain very constructive. Is there anything you can provide around visibility into 2027, either in terms of backlog on the services side, any other indicators there? Because I think the primary risk today that's getting reflected or priced into the stocks isn't so much the 2026, but it's the potential downside or deceleration of growth in 2027. I know it's a ways out, but any comments on that would be appreciated. Second, anything you can refine in terms of your assumptions on CFM56 retirements this year? You called out 1.5% of the fleet in the first quarter.
Just remind us again the assumptions into the remainder of 2026 and 2027 on retirements on that engine? Thank you.
Hello, Ken. Yeah. Again, I'm not able to comment or speculate on how this crisis in the Gulf will unfold, and therefore on 2027. What I can say is as explained, we've been positively surprised on what we've seen. That started in H2 2025 indeed, and it continued in Q1 2026, and it will continue in Q2 2026. We've been positively surprised by the heavy work scope, which basically is a driver for us being significantly ahead of our planned trajectory. We are ahead of plan. Again, this basically fueled our confidence to meet this year the high end of our target. Basically, this plan trajectory is the one that we had used for even our 2028 expectation. We were ahead of plan. We are ahead of plan. We have some room to absorb, let's say, some potential headwinds.
We have demonstrated in the past our ability to navigate through headwinds. That's what I can say. On CFM56 retirements, we firmly believe that we will be below 2% this year, and that we don't see today that the number of retirements should be significantly different than what we saw in 2025. In 2025, it was 143 aircraft, and it was 1.5% of the fleet. Q144. We believe we should be around 1.5%-2%.
Yeah. Keep in mind that the narrow body fleet is owned 50% by lessors. They can redeploy aircraft from one area to another if needed. We don't see the retirement to pick up even in 2027.
Yeah. I should have mentioned, I met last week also with the big lessor companies, and none of them today is seeing any impact on the dynamic of the leasing aircraft business. None of them. That's what I can say. Factually.
Thank you.
Maybe a last question?
We are now going to proceed with one last question, and the question comes from the line of Ross Law from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question.
Hi, morning, everyone. Thanks for the question. Just one final one on work scope, and the question is really just around how much flexibility airlines actually have here. If we obviously baseline the current activity, let's say at 100, how far down, I guess, could this be dialed? And how much lead time do they actually need to provide you? If I've got a shop visit in the future, at what point do I need to give you some sort of anticipation or request for that scope? And just lastly, would you agree that this is the one variable most at risk going forward over, let's say, volumes or price? Thanks.
Flexibility on the work scope. The key point is, basically what the airlines have to indicate to us when the engine is removed from the wing, what they have to indicate to us is basically, do they want to focus on just the core engine or do they want to extend the work scope also to the fan and to the LP turbine. This comes basically typically when the engine is removed from the wing. This is why we have some visibility, let's say two or three months ahead of induction, I would say. The turnaround time today on CFM56, and this is related to some attention on parts and also on the global MRO capacity, which basically is in line with our anticipation in terms of volume of shop visit, but is also a constraint. We have a turnaround time around 100 days now on CFM56, typically.
This is why we have some visibility in what's going to happen in Q2 and Q3. No surprise on price. There should not be any surprise. We don't expect any surprise on the volume of shop visit and work scope. Again, we have some anticipation. Does it answer your question?
Yes. Thanks very much. Appreciate it.
If I may, because I understand that your concern, all of you, is more 2027 and beyond. We have updated our 2028 ambition for it was last February. As you know, we always guide cautiously. It was built with the appropriate buffer to overcome some risk. We have not factored in some opportunities as well. We do enjoy strong visibility and, frankly, we strongly believe in the durability of the earnings growth profile of the company. Now, we have no crystal ball for the Middle East conflict, and we'll re-discuss that at the end of July when we can provide numbers for the end of H1. But so far, so good. We are running ahead of plan. Thank you all for your questions.
Thank you.
That concludes the question and answer session. I hand back to you for closing remarks. We have no further questions now. Please go ahead for the closing remarks. Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.