Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A. (EPA:SGO)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Oct 27, 2022

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Saint-Gobain conference call. I now hand over to Mr. Benoit Bazin, CEO, and Mr. Sreedhar N., CFO. Gentlemen, please go ahead.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Thank you. Good evening, everybody. I hope that you have received our press release and that you have already been able to go through the highlights. Together with Sreedhar, we will discuss our Q3 sales and take your questions. We have achieved strong growth in Q3, with sales up nearly 20%. organic growth was dynamic at 13.4% in the quarter. All our five segments have once again achieved double-digit like-for-like growth in the quarter. These strong performance reflects the group's strong strategic positioning as the worldwide leader in Light and Sustainable Construction, a strong governance country- by- country to offer unique innovative solutions, and a commitment to strong execution from our teams on clear operational priorities. Right now, each one of our country CEOs is steering action plans in order to continue to outperform whatever the market environment they face.

These sales numbers are driven especially by our North America, Asia-Pacific and High Performance Solutions segments. Renovation in Europe remains resilient, while we have started to see a slowdown in new construction in the region as expected when we last spoke to you in July. We have continued to demonstrate our ability to manage energy and raw material inflation well, leveraging our pricing power and also the added value of our solutions in order to achieve sequential price increase given the energy volatility we have seen in Europe. We are of course conscious of the impact of inflation for our stakeholders, and we have proactively put in place measures to support our customers wherever possible, including helping them understand pricing movements, giving them as much visibility as possible, and ensuring also the necessary inventory for a very good level of service and supply.

As planned also, we closed the acquisition of GCP at the end of September. The new organization has already been put in place. Thierry Bernard, the former Chryso CEO, has been appointed CEO of Construction Chemicals within High Performance Solutions. He is leading the responsibility of integration, which we have been preparing for since the beginning of the year, and it is off to a very good start. We are confirming our guidance for 2022, and we are very confident that we will deliver a new record year in operating income with a double-digit margin. Our medium and long-term drivers are strong, with a clear need for Light and Sustainable Construction as the world strives towards its net zero carbon goals.

There has never been such a perfect alignment between climate change and energy savings, the need to protect household purchasing power through energy savings, and of course, energy security in each country, so making energy efficient renovation all the more urgent. We are rolling out Grow & Impact strategic plan, and I'm very confident that our organization will continue to demonstrate once again its ability to overcome tough challenges, whether supply chain, high inflation, or geopolitical crisis, and will continue to outperform even in the face of more challenging conditions in some of our markets, as we have done in recent years. I now hand over to Sreedhar who will give you additional information about our third quarter sales.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Thank you, Benoit, and good evening, everybody. Let me give you more details about our Q3 sales. We achieved strong organic growth in Q3, up 13.4%. The currency impact was positive at 5.4%, linked to the US dollar and the Brazilian real in particular. The structural impact turned positive in Q3 to +0.8% with the consolidation of Kaycan from August and continued impact from the acquisition of Chryso. We also have the impact of Divestments and Distribution in the Netherlands, Specialist Distributions in the U.K., Glass Solutions in various European countries, and Pipe in China. This demonstrates how the rotation of portfolio has become a management routine. Please note, Turkey is now treated in our accounts as a Hyperinflationary country and excluded from the like-for-like comparison. This will be included in the structural impact going forward.

Now, coming back to the like-for-like growth, we continue to achieve sequential price increases important against the inflationary backdrop and given the energy volatility in Europe in particular. This allowed us to achieve a positive spread for both the nine-month period and also the Q3 alone. We expect raw materials and energy inflations of slightly more than EUR 3 billion in 2022. As a reminder, our energy cost is hedged at around 80% for 2022 and at around 60% for 2023. We are very confident in our ability to continue to offset the inflation in raw materials and energy expected for 2022 and generate the positive price-cost spread. In the current volatile energy environment, price environment, we remain focused on the spread in order to make sure we start 2023 in a good position.

Volumes decreased slightly in Q3 to -1.6% with a negative working day effect of around 0.50%, or 0.5%, but more significant in Southern Europe. I will now give some more details by segment. In Northern Europe, we saw 12% organic growth in Q3, with sequential price increases on a higher comparison basis, and with volumes impacted by the slowdown in new construction. The Renovation markets remain at a good level. Nordic countries outperformed with the Renovation market continuing to be supported by energy-efficient renovation projects and despite the slowdown in new construction projects. The U.K. performed satisfactorily in a weaker market. Germany benefited from our strong positioning in energy-efficient renovation solutions, and we are making quick progress in building the flexibility in all our plants for alternate energy sources to gas.

Eastern Europe continues to see a very good momentum, and we have gained market share in our main countries. Now coming to Southern Europe, Organic Sales grew nearly 11% in Q3. We achieved sequential price increases on a higher comparison basis. Volumes were lower in Q3 with a negative working day effect of around 2% and with the slowdown of a new construction in the region. Renovation remained more resilient. France maintained a good dynamic supported by the structurally more resilient Renovation market. The Stimulus package and the stricter regulations continue to be effective. The order backlogs for the craftsmen continue to be full, and our complete offering of sustainable and innovative solution is allowing us to make the most of this. Spain and Italy continue to outperform. Vantylis benefited from its complete renovation solutions for specific markets like schools, hospitals, or the renovation of the multifamily housing.

The Middle East and Africa continue to show a significant growth, benefiting from the opening of the new factories to make the most of the dynamic underlying markets, especially in Egypt. Turning now to the Americas, which saw organic growth up 14% in Q3, driven by prices and despite the start of a slowdown in new construction due to a sharp rise in interest rates. North America continued to show strong organic growth of 17% in Q3, driven by our complete offering of solutions and good trends in light construction. The new construction market slowed but remained at a good level. Q3 saw Kaycan join the region with good results. We have had a good start to the integration process of Kaycan.

As a reminder, the local North American waterproofing business of GCP is included in the region due to the strong synergies with CertainTeed's roofing and siding activities. Latin America saw organic growth of 8% in Q3 with an uncertain environment in Brazil elsewhere in the region. Dynamic growth was supported by pricing, new plant opening and targeted acquisitions. Our Asia-Pacific region saw strong sales growth with like-for-like up 27% in Q3, with growth driven by India and Southeast Asia. India achieved another quarter of excellent performance with market share gains across all product lines and an integrated and innovative offers being rolled out to the new customers. Southeast Asia outperformed, especially in Vietnam and Malaysia, supported by the diversification of our offerings in construction chemicals in particular. China saw moderate growth driven by pricing despite the pandemic restrictions and slowdown of the general construction market.

Now coming to High Performance Solutions, we saw organic growth up 19% in Q3, driven by an acceleration in pricing and volumes, thanks to the resilient markets and the recovery of the automotive in Europe. Our businesses serving global construction customers achieved record sales in Q3 up 25%. Chryso continues to outperform its markets. Integration and synergies are progressing well. Mobility saw a very strong organic growth in Q3, supported by a strong price renegotiation and a rebound in volumes from a very low base in Europe. We continue to see good sales growth in the Americas, India and China. Overall, our Mobility business continued to outperform the automotive market, thanks to our strong positioning in electric vehicles. Businesses serving industry progressed supported by activities related to our customers investment cycles like ceramics, which benefit from our innovative technologies to help our customers decarbonize their processes.

To sum up, we continue to deliver a good sales growth and sequential price increase with a very strong focus on price-cost spread. In the coming quarters, we will remain focused on margin and cash. Now I hand over back to Benoit for concluding remarks.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Thank you, Sreedhar. Now I'd like to make a few comments about the outlook and our strategic priorities. We expect the following trends within our different segments in Q4 2022. Resilience in renovation Europe, while new construction markets are slowing down. The Americas should hold firm. Solid growth in Asia-Pacific and a good momentum in High Performance Solutions supported by Innovation. Saint-Gobain confirms that it is targeting a further increase in operating income in 2022 compared to 2021 at constant exchange rates. Like you, we have no crystal ball, but what we have done is to make sure that we have the best possible organization in place to be able to face whatever market environment we may see. Our local management is close to their customers, hands-on, on a daily basis.

They have clear priorities, and they are incentivized on them, meaning that there is real ownership and accountability. Our transformed organization puts us in the best position to deal with any new challenges and continue, of course, to outperform the market. We are also helped by our optimized business profile with around EUR 10 billion of sales, either acquired or divested since the transformation began. Meaning that we have now a better and more resilient business profile. This constant reinforcement of the group through acquisitions and divestitures has become part of management routine.

Most importantly of all, we are focused on controlling what we can control, adapting fast to changing conditions on the ground, proactively managing our price-cost spread, integrating our recent acquisitions quickly, continuing to innovate and roll out new solutions to meet our customers' needs, ensuring also the flexibility of our production with less or alternative energy, continued manufacturing excellence, et cetera. We of course cannot control everything, but there is plenty that is under our control, and we'll keep focusing our efforts on this in order to outperform our markets, leverage our structural margin improvements and generate cash. On a strategic side, we are well-positioned on the resilient market of energy-efficient renovation. Light construction is growing fast, and sustainability needs call for accelerated innovation across our global markets.

All the while, we are playing a key role in building a carbon neutral economy, thanks to our positive IMPACT solutions. Just this quarter, our French teams launched low-carbon glass offer, which will be supported by our new initiative to recycle used glass in a closed loop. We have also recently signed energy supply agreements in North America and in Poland to increase the proportion of renewable electricity we use. At the beginning of August, we successfully launched our first sustainability-linked bond. Our strategic positioning to respond to the energy and to the Decarbonization challenges has never been more relevant. We are focused on consolidating our strong operating performance and on adapting to the specific market trends in each of our countries in order to continue to outperform. Thank you for your attention.

Sreedhar and myself, we are now happy to take and answer any of your questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question by phone, please press zero one on your telephone keypad. Your first question comes from Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq from CIC Market Solutions. Please go ahead.

Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq
Financial Analyst and Head of Building Materials & Contractors, CIC Market Solutions

Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq. Bonsoir. Good evening. I have three questions, if I might. First, flat glass, the traditional question. Can we have more flavor on the most recent level of pricing? If we look at the German index, it's up by 65% September 2022 versus September 2021. So an excellent performance. Do we have further price announcement on this product? Second issue, Plasterboard. If we compare the American and German index, they are very divergent, just below 10% in Germany, but very high, more or less 25% in North America. How do you explain this difference? Can we rely on further price hikes in Plasterboard in Europe? Last question, integration of Chryso.

If we look at the polymer pricing, it's up by more than 20%. Are you able to increase the margin despite so this very strong hike in factor costs? Many thanks.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Thank you, Jean-Christophe. Should I take the first, and I will follow up?

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Jean-Christophe, you know, the glass prices are improving sequentially. The last quarter average price was EUR 6.17 for the 4 MM thing. Again, this is something that I give you, but this is not something which is relevant from a Saint-Gobain's perspective. Overall, the glass prices are sequentially, the prices are improving quarter after quarter. This is something which we are making sure because there is also a good supply chain situation in the market, and there is a clear opportunity for us, and we are able to benefit from this current situation.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

I take maybe the question on the Plasterboard. You know, across all the different countries and product lines within the country, we always make sure also, as I said, that we give visibility to our customers in terms of price increase so that they can adapt themselves. I think it's a way to be close to our customers, and our local organization is extremely powerful for that, and it's also a good way to outperform. Yes, in Plasterboard, you know, the dynamic is strong in the U.S. We have been running full capacity in the third quarter. I think we are performing very well. As you know, we leverage full speed, the very successful integration of Continental and CertainTeed. The market is strong.

You know, I'm quite intrigued to see that yes, there is a bit of softness on new housing starts for single family, but multifamily are strong in the U.S. In terms of mix for Plasterboard, it's quite interesting. There is a good environment and a good demand. Plasterboard, both in volumes and prices, are strong in the U.S. Now, if you go in other country, you, I think, picked Germany. We are not the number one in Germany. For me, what is more relevant is that our German CEO delivers the margin for the country that we ask him to deliver.

If he can deliver more on insulation, which he's doing, because we are leading the charge on insulation in Germany, and this explains also, you may have seen the nice strong growth sequentially in Germany from the first half to the third quarter, a good acceleration on energy savings. Insulation, notably in Germany, is delivering on the German margin. Sometimes, yes, we have a situation where Plasterboard Germany margin or the price dynamic is a bit more tricky. Actually, we are still pushing up prices on Plasterboard in Germany. Overall, we do more and better in other product lines. Ultimately, our German CEO is accountable to his margin for all the country, and that's what he's delivering. This is the way I look at it, and we are continuing to push prices across the board in Germany.

Your third question, I don't comment specifically on the margin for Chryso in the third quarter. I think we told you in the first half, which was a very strong performance. The margin of Chryso was flat, still a 20%+ EBITDA margin in the first half, which was a superb performance. We are still running above 20% like-for-like, close to 25% like-for-like for Chryso, with a strong pricing dynamic. This is the strength, the value add of innovation from Chryso and of course something that Thierry Bernard is implementing in terms of synergies with GCP. We are confident about a very strong year of Chryso, well aligned, if not above, with the first year of the business plan we had at the time of the acquisition.

Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq
Financial Analyst and Head of Building Materials & Contractors, CIC Market Solutions

Okay, many thanks. Merci beaucoup.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Paul Roger from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Paul Roger
Managing Director and Head of Building Materials, BNP Paribas

Yeah, good evening, everybody. Congratulations on the results, and thanks a lot for taking my questions. I'll keep it to two. Firstly, can you tell us what proportion of the price increases you've seen this year take the form of energy or maybe other surcharges that could clearly reverse if costs do decline in 2023? Then secondly, just a general question, to what extent do you think renovation is relatively immune to a macro downturn? Also maybe if you could split your renovation exposure between energy efficiency and more discretionary projects, please. Thank you.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

In terms of surcharge, Paul, you know, we don't use it at all. There are very few, very rare examples in general because it adds a lot of complexities, and we have not opted for this. There are very few examples within the organization where we have tried to use this. By and large, this price increase is something which we have defended based on the total inflation that we have seen in the businesses, again based on the market situations and the competitive scenario in the given market.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

On your question related to renovation, no, we are not going to fool ourselves and to say renovation is totally immune. One very important point, because sometimes some external viewers look at do it yourself. We are not in do it yourself. You know, we are not like I buy paint to do some work in the bedroom of my child. We are that durable renovation. This is not a discretionary spend like taking paint, you know, for the weekend or for Labor Day, whatever activity. We are investing on durable goods. When you think of Europe, you know, it's the largest factor of our presence in Europe. It's above 60% related to renovation. It's hard to totally isolate, Paul, the part of energy efficiency.

What I can tell you is that within the total portfolio of Saint-Gobain, as you know, we have 72% of our total sales which are related to sustainability. That's one important indicator to keep in mind. The second, I would say is that recently, for instance, there was a survey in France asking B2C customers, so end users, homeowners, about their intention, their intent to renovate on energy efficiency. It has doubled versus a year ago for a quite obvious reason, because they see that energy price is coming up, even though governments across Europe are trying to cap the energy bill, but they all know that it's not going to be there forever. Even in France, it will be up 15%. In the U.K., it's extremely high already.

The intention to dedicate even more to renovation towards energy efficiency is, for instance, in France, two times higher than it used to be a year ago. The last point I would like to make also is that when you look into, and we have a good grip on that, for instance, through our distribution business in France, but not only, in the Nordics as well, a lot of this renovation job, more than 50%, is done based on personal savings. It's not based on financing, therefore it's not correlated to higher interest rate. It's done for more than 50% of the time with personal savings. Adding to that, after that, some subsidies and tax incentives that you have here and there in Italy with their cash bonus, etcetera.

A large portion is actually, I think, immune and will get prioritized in the coming years. It's part of the long-term trend. You know, we know that we have to more than double the renovation rate of buildings across Europe in the next 30 years. There will be bumps down the road, country by country. As we speak, we see the U.K. market being the weakest for us across Europe, but we see a strong resilience in France, in the Nordics, in Germany, even an increase sequentially quarter- to- quarter. Accelerated support from building standards, diagnosis of energy performance in France in order to rent or to sell your real estate. All those measures are going to pop up and continue to be a good support.

Plus, keep in mind also what has to be done and started to be done on public buildings.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

You know, there's some of these new regulations are clearly seeing that positive impact. I mean, I know if you look at the survey results, what Benoit mentioned, in France today, you cannot increase your rent if your performance of your building is not G or F. This is clearly a compelling reason for any house owner to go and do the renovation fast.

Paul Roger
Managing Director and Head of Building Materials, BNP Paribas

Yeah, that's really interesting. Maybe I could just have one quick follow-up. I mean, it's obviously from your initial remarks that you're communicating a lot with customers, giving them visibility about upcoming price increases. Clearly the sort of backdrop in terms of new construction demand is getting weaker. I'm just curious, how are the customers actually reacting to your recent communications and attempts to push pricing further? Are you getting any pushbacks?

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Well, you know, it's always something that has to be done on the ground, and this is the power, the superpower of our local organization, because our managers, first, 90% of the time they are native from their country. Joanna Czynsz-Piechowiak, she is Polish in Poland. Raimund Heinl, we covered Germany already, or Mike Chaldecott in the U.K., they are British and German, so they know their ecosystem, and they relate very well to this ecosystem of local customers. We have emphasized a lot, and I've done it personally, asking all our country CEOs for the last 12-18 months to be proactive in terms of local communication to their customers.

For instance, if I take France, we have taken the lead on that in early March of this year, taking myself and the French CEO to the Head of the Federations of craftsmen, the Federation of Home Builders, and to define a framework, and we have been the leader for that on how to anticipate two months ahead the price increases, how to define fixed quotes within our distribution outlets for one month, so that if I quote a job at your place, Paul, and I come back to place the order as a craftsman within Point.P, I don't have a surprise. One month of fixed quotes. Also, putting forward, you know, the credit we are, as you know, offering credit to the craftsmen we have in France, in the Nordics, in many places.

When interest rates from banks and financing is higher, this is a very good way to know our customers, know their upcoming job sites, and have the loyalty with them. It's all a matter of communication. I'm not saying there is no pushback because it's difficult for everyone. We have done a lot of education to them to help them also not giving fixed quotes to their end customers so that they are not squeezed. Even, you know, to the point where, for instance, in Germany, even though it has been a bit hard at the beginning of the year, we have been thanked by some customers, saying, "I should have, you know, listened to you early in the year because now I know how to behave and how to anticipate," because we all know that inflation is not going to disappear.

There is a learning curve in the overall chain in Europe, and we are participating in that. That's for renovation across hundreds of thousands of small customers. On new build, what we are seeing is that for the prime home, the prime buyer, it's a bit more difficult because the down payment, you know, is a bit more high and the interest rates then have a negative impact. It's more for this kind of population that either you squeeze and you downsize the project or new build, or there is a bit of slowdown in volumes.

Paul Roger
Managing Director and Head of Building Materials, BNP Paribas

Yeah. That's great. Thanks a lot. Congratulations again.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Elodie Rall from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Elodie Rall
Managing Director, JPMorgan

Hi. Good evening, gentlemen. Congrats, and thanks for taking my questions indeed. My first question is on the price cost. I think you've said that you're running positive in Q3. I think you mentioned you were at above EUR 250 million at H1. Can you quantify what level you're running at currently year to date? That's my first question. My second question is on hedging. You said you're hedged 60% for next year, but we've seen energy costs coming down quite a bit recently. Could you tell us if you're hedged or if your hedging level for next year is higher than current prices? My third question is on 2023 outlook.

I know you won't comment too specifically, but I was wondering what your thoughts are about, you know, consensus expectations at the moment. Notably, I think consensus is looking for operating margins at 9.2%, so I was wondering how you feel about that. Thank you.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Yes. Elodie, price-cost spread, you are right. We are positive in Q3. I'm not going to quantify it for the simple reason because it does not make any sense in a given volatile environment. What I can tell you is we are very confident that we will have the price-cost spread positive for the second half. What matters here is, again, the focus. You have seen the country by country, Benoit mentioned about it. Everybody is looking at the cost, price-cost spread in the business, and that's what is making a huge difference because when you have business managers who are empowered, they're able to take decisions on where to push prices and where not to push prices, and making them accountable for overall price-cost spread in the given country.

It's really delivering the results, and you have seen the progress we are making on this front. At this point of time, I would say that this is something which is manageable, and we'll continue to remain focused on it because for us it is also very important that we need to start 2023 on a good note. It is actually very important to anticipate this. Coming to the next question on hedging. It is true that it is coming down, but again it's all relative. We were in August at 340-350. When you talk of hedging today for 2023, it is still hovering around 150, so it is still significantly higher. You know, the fact that we have built flexibility in our plans, I think we will take a call at appropriate time.

We will remain very vigilant and opportunistic. At the end of the day, we need to see that how we can optimize the cost as we go forward. At this point of time, we remain at 60%, but we will keep a watch on it.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

I will take the third point. You know, to elaborate also, Elodie, on what you asked, I think we have a this is where I'm very confident and very proud of what all the teams of Saint-Gobain delivered. That on the price-cost spread on anything related to their action plans on the ground with customers, our country CEOs are extremely hands-on, and they are fast. They have a real accountability and that makes a big difference. We are also on top, as you know, on hedging day by day. If there are some opportunities, and I think we have managed extremely well over the last two years, we'll capture that.

At this stage, we feel good with what we have going forward, and we feel good also on how we have prepared 2023 by the pricing dynamic of the current quarter and the last few months. Of course, we don't comment, Elodie, on 2023.

Elodie Rall
Managing Director, JPMorgan

Yes.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

What I want to say again is that Saint-Gobain has changed. Saint-Gobain has changed. We have a transformed organization, empowered local teams, a real cultural shift. The culture of outperformance is there, and for me this is the point. You know, we have improved our margin in the first half. I think in the overall building materials space it was quite a performance to improve in the first half. This is the culture of Saint-Gobain in terms of outperformance, in terms of focus on execution. You have seen also how we manage the price-cost spread. The margin focus and the cash focus is super high within Saint-Gobain, and clearly this is the priority, the two priorities I've given to the teams over the last months.

We have also all the benefits of the portfolio changes we have done and, whether on divestitures, also the integration of strong acquisitions. I'm extremely happy with the start of Kaycan. Actually, Kaycan finalized, you know, their year was July to July. They finalized even higher than what we thought at the time of the acquisition. The first two months in August and September have been very good. Portfolio changes will help us going forward. We have a strong balance sheet also, even after GCP and Kaycan. Coming back to the long-term trends of Saint-Gobain, we talked about European renovation on energy efficiency, the needs for that and the priority for governments, for household owners has never been that high. I'm confident about the way forward for Saint-Gobain.

I know, and we all know, and we face it, that there will be bumps, but as I said in my introduction, we will continue to do our absolute best on what we can control, and we'll continue to deliver excellent results for Saint-Gobain.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Okay, thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Matthias Pfeifenberger from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Matthias Pfeifenberger
Director of Company Research & Advisory and Head of European Building Materials, Deutsche Bank

Yes, good evening, gents. Thanks for taking my questions, and congrats to the results. I'll do a bit more digging of the Elodie's approach, if I may. In terms of crisis resilience, looked at on 2008- 2009, volumes down 14%, actually, pricing up and then, margins down to 5.9%. Can you maybe give some color, I guess? Is it fair to assume, depending on the depth of the recession, it's gonna be less than -14% on the volumes. You traded 25% of your portfolio, and you just mentioned a very strong acquisitions, especially also in chemicals. On the margin, I guess we talked about 200 basis points of structural margin improvements. You also said the 9%-11% corridor is without a financial crisis, so would 8% be a good level?

Maybe some color. Then secondly, on volumes, quite resilient, especially in Europe, what do you see in the fourth quarter or in the orders in terms of new build, residential? Do you expect an overall further deceleration of the volume momentum in the fourth quarter? Thanks.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

You know, I would say it's nice to try for many angles. I appreciate the exercise. Of course, you know, we talk about that a lot. As I said, you know, the priorities are extremely clear within the teams of Saint-Gobain in terms of margin performance and cash. Please, Saint-Gobain has changed, so I will not compare, first, because what we have in front of us has nothing to do with what we experienced in 2008 and 2009 in terms of scenario. Second, Saint-Gobain has dramatically changed in many aspects. Please, don't look again at the rear window. I don't know how you call that, you know, the when you go backward. I look forward, and we all take the group forward, not backward.

We cannot compare, with the situation, you know, that we faced with the financial crisis 13 years ago. Here we have an energy crisis, so Energy Renovation is something on top of the priority of everyone. That's very important to keep that in mind. You know, we said that we have, through the portfolio and the transformation, we have gained, you know, 200 basis points. We have also delivered 370 basis points in the first half of 2022 versus the first half of 2018, prior to the transformation. That gives you some data points in terms of margin improvement, structural, and what we have delivered also with the addition of all the benefits culturally, management-wise, in terms of the new organization and how close we are to our customers.

Now, on your last question, you know, we expect for the group, the Q4 volumes to be same order of magnitude versus what we experienced in Q3. That's what I would say. You know, I could add, because you always ask, so you have not asked, but I will tell you know, October, from what we hear, is holding quite well. That's no difference in October, and this is what I see on the market everywhere, and our teams are busy.

Matthias Pfeifenberger
Director of Company Research & Advisory and Head of European Building Materials, Deutsche Bank

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Yassine Touahri from On Field Investment Research. Please go ahead.

Yassine Touahri
Co-Founder and Managing Partner, On Field Investment Research

Yes. Maybe another question on the price versus cost. Energy prices have come down substantially in Europe in the past few weeks. Could this sequential decline support your ability to generate another positive price-cost spread in the second half of 2022? Another question is, could we see a margin stability or expansion in the second half? Or is it too challenging given the volume decline? My last question is about the scope effects for you agreeing to consolidate GCP. Do you have an order of magnitude of what's going to be the approximate scope effect in the first quarter of 2022?

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Sreedhar will take the third and the first. You know, we don't comment, this is a sales call, so we don't comment on the margin. I told you that we are very confident, you know, on the guidance, and we will deliver a double-digit margin for this year. This is what I want to repeat again. Sreedhar, you take the first one.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Yeah. On the scope with the, you know, we will certainly be a bit more positive in Q4, as you rightly said, given that we have a GCP and also a part of the impact of Kaycan, because Kaycan was integrated in first of September.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

You will have some extra scope IMPAC in the last quarter.

Yassine Touahri
Co-Founder and Managing Partner, On Field Investment Research

The impact of lower energy prices, is it something that you will benefit from in the first quarter, or is it too early?

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

No, keep in mind that as Sreedhar said, we have 80%+, which is hedged. Yes, when there is, you know, punctually on the day-to-day basis, a lower cost of gas, of course, for the non-hedged part, we benefit from it, but it's very minimal because a large portion has been hedged. As you have seen, you know, some of our volumes have been a bit down in the third quarter, so the remaining piece is very small. If you look at all this, you know, if you were willing to hedge in November and December, yes, the gas price was at 25 two days ago. But if you want to hedge in November and December, it's still 120. Our hedging, you know, IMPAC is much lower than that.

All in all, you know, we are confident about this price-cost spread, and Sreedhar has been very detailed on that. You cannot take it day by day.

Yeah, it's so volatile, you know.

Of course, day by day.

Yes.

We benefit from it, but it's minimal in the big scope and we cannot bank on that. It's, I would say in that regard, the year is done on energy.

Yassine Touahri
Co-Founder and Managing Partner, On Field Investment Research

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Sven Edelfelt from ODDO BHF. Please go ahead.

Sven Edelfelt
Financial Analyst of Building Materials & Construction, ODDO BHF

Yes. Good evening, gentlemen. Thank you for taking my question. First question, can you explain which businesses are slowing down in the U.S. and are dragging your volume down? Second question, Benoit, you said your business is more resilient because of the disposal. Can you give us an order of magnitude of the trough EBITDA of your EUR 6.4 billion revenue disposal? I mean, was it negative EUR 100 million, negative EUR 200 million? That would be much appreciated. Then a very quick one, a very quick third one, have you experienced any destocking effect in distribution?

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Thank you. Just one point of clarification, which is very important. You know, in the Americas, we have been flattish in North America. We have been down in Latin America because of Brazil. When you look at the Americas, the negative, it all comes from Brazil. Of course, you all know, you know the political situation in Brazil. We are very confident that Brazil going forward, it will bounce back. As we flagged actually almost a year ago, Brazil had been slowing down and the last quarter has not been very good. We were together with Sreedhar in Mexico two weeks ago, visiting our teams, our Mexican CEO, the recent acquisition of IMPAC in Construction Chemicals, for instance, the north of Latin America is strong.

In North America, we're flattish volumes, strong, a bit stronger on interior finishing, a bit lighter, slightly better than the whole market. If I take the roofing association, slightly better than that, but a bit lighter on exterior products. That's for Americas. I think it's very important. As I said a bit earlier, even though some housing starts are a bit down on single family, multifamily starts are strong. You also have in the U.S., but the U.S. now, a large lag between the start and completion, so that should keep the businesses busy in the first half of next year. You have a bit of impact, it's a bit too early to quantify it, of the storm in the southeast of the U.S. for roofing. That will deliver also some orders for the first half of 2023.

Again, that's a mixed picture in the overall Americas between North America and within Latin America, specifically, Brazil. On your second question, what we can say, and it's a general comment, is at first, the businesses we divested, they were almost at zero EBITDA margin, so they were dilutive. As we all know from a management standpoint, you know, anytime you have a crisis, I take it as an opportunity. I can tell you know, all the teams of Saint-Gobain are super motivated today to take the challenges that we have faced over the last two, three years of COVID, supply chain, inflation, etc., and the upcoming challenges as an opportunity to continue to make a difference, to continue to outperform. There are many areas. If I take automotive, we have outperformed a big way the automotive market, thanks to our electric vehicle positioning.

In many countries of Europe, we have outperformed the renovation market and the underlying market. We take any more challenging time as an opportunity to make a difference because we know that the strong businesses accelerate even further in more difficult times, and they increase the gap. The weaker businesses, they get even weaker, almost at a free fall. Yes, I know that all those businesses, you know, in 2008 and 2009, dropped within the group more than the strong businesses. I take another angle because I think it's important, so you all know that, but I want to restate that. You know, in glass, 2008 and 2009, we entered the difficult times of the financial crisis with overcapacity as a market. We are with undercapacity in glass today, and it will remain so for the next two years.

On our side, within Saint-Gobain, we have four float lines, less than in 2008 and 2009. If I take Plasterboard in the U.S., you know, the market has been more consolidated. We did that. We participated with the Continental acquisition. All those data points, I think, are also important to keep in mind that we cannot compare Apple with Apple. Yes, you are right, that the weaker businesses which we have offloaded dropped even further during the last time. Overall, again, the big picture is Saint-Gobain has been transformed, and we have a much stronger resilience. All the teams, again, are adapting themselves very fast. You know, the pricing power we have shown is a result of that, if I take just pricing as one example. I could take supply chain, for instance.

One of the benefits we will bring to GCP, and we have both agreed to GCP even before the closure, we started to work on that in June and July is availability of raw materials. They didn't have the scale of the supply chain of Saint-Gobain/Chryso to have all the polymers. They were lacking sales because of lack of raw materials. All this organization that we have in place is extremely important hands-on to solve and take whatever challenge we'll face.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

The third question on this, whether there was an effect of this talking, it was a very little bit.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Marginally, a bit.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Marginally, yeah.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

In Europe, a bit of that.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Yeah.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

More in July than September, actually.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Yeah. Yeah.

Arnaud Lehmann
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America

Okay, thank you. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Arnaud Lehmann from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Arnaud Lehmann
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America

Thank you very much. Good evening, gentlemen. Three questions on my side, please. First, have you said anything or are you interested in Sika MBCC assets? I guess, I think you mentioned in the past that both GCP that was less interesting for you, but could you confirm? Second, you mentioned the U.K. slowdown. Would you mind being a bit more specific whether it's driven by distribution or manufacturing or both? Lastly, you provide a useful update on the energy situation in Europe and what you're doing with your own businesses. Would you mind commenting on the competitive environment for the energy intensive businesses, in particular flat glass and fiber insulation? Have you seen any capacity closures by your largest peer? Thank you.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Yeah. MBCC, the overall answer is no, because from what I understand from the communication that we can have externally is that I think it will go with the overall, but I may be wrong, but it will go with the overall admixtures of MBCC in one go. Therefore, because of antitrust, we could not be a serious candidate, and we don't want to waste the time of Sika and others on this transaction. If there were some smaller pieces, we could definitely look at it, but I don't think from what I've understood, but I may be right, I may be wrong, sorry, we cannot look at it as one single transaction, both in the U.S. and in Europe. That's the high level.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

In the U.K., the slowdown is across the board. It's to do with the whole political instability. The country is going through the turmoil and it's clearly impacting the business. It is not specific to any one business. U.K. is suffering for the last couple of quarters and we hope that with the political change, whatever is happening and things should bring some more stability in the U.K..

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

On the float, I guess.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

I mean, you know, first of all, if we have not seen any big move from the competition, and if at all, if something happens, I can only tell you is that Saint-Gobain will benefit from it because Saint-Gobain has prepared flexibility across the float lines and the glass insulation. I mean, we have given you a lot of detailed color on what are the different steps that we have taken on the flat glass. I think we are making a very good progress. It gives us a good situation of dealing with this uncertainty. The fact that the plants are being tested and we see that it is something which is a credible solution we have had. We remain very confident of dealing with this.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

We have seen some weakness or some restructuring being done by some of our automotive glass competitors in Europe.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Yeah.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

reducing capacity

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Yeah.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

In the last quarter. That's one comment I would make. You know, some competitors have stopped float in Hungary, for instance. All in all, I think as I said, the overall market will remain under capacity in the next two years. That's what we could say. I would not comment more into the details.

Arnaud Lehmann
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America

Excellent. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Nabil Ahmed from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Nabil Ahmed
Director and Head of European Construction, Building Materials & Infrastructure Research, Barclays

Yeah, good evening, Benoit Bazin, Sreedhar. Thanks for taking my questions. I had three actually. First one, if I look at your European volumes in the third quarter, they seem to be below 2019, and that's the first time for a long while. And you are now talking of a resilient renovation market in Europe rather than a supportive market, which I think was your words in July. Is there anything exceptional in Q3 volume we should be aware of or are we starting to witness a downturn given the current macro? It would be useful if you could elaborate about what has changed last quarter. The second question, you've been talking a lot about energy and raw materials, but could you update as well on labor costs? Are you starting to see some pressure here for next year?

How easy do you believe it is to pass on to customers compared to energy and raw materials that may be more visible? The last question, I think at the capital markets day you communicated about a range of 9%-11% operating margin, but I also believe it was excluding any severe recession. Now we may be facing one. And as you were pointing out, the group has changed a lot. Could you help us understand what's the operating leverage of Saint-Gobain now? Thank you.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

First, you know, on the third one, as I said, we give you very clear position on our double-digit margin ambition for the year. We will comment about 2023 in February when we will release our 2022 figures. I say again that our focus is on margin protection, keeping all the structural gains we have delivered in the last few years and cash. This is what I want to restate again on the margin and how we focus on the margin going forward, and the fact that this year will be a record year and another second year with double-digit margin for Saint-Gobain. On the second one related to labor cost, yes, of course there is a bit more inflation overall on labor.

It's around 4%, I would say, for the group, so it's 1.5 points higher than it used to be in a normal year. Here again, our local organization has helped us to be extremely proactive. For me, it's extremely important that all the Saint-Gobain employees are engaged, that they are all behind the purpose, the strategy of Saint-Gobain. We have been agile on those questions of salary. If I take France, you know, there was a round of bargaining for salary increase in February, March. For the low-income employees, we had another one, if I take distribution, in July. We distributed also some bonus in October for some parts of the population below a certain salary. We are listening actively to our teams. It's extremely important to look at, you know, their motivation.

One thing which is maybe not in our financial figures, but you know that over the last four years since the launch of the transformation, we have had every year in the fall a worldwide employee survey across 165,000 employees. We started with the NPS, so the Net Promoter Score, the satisfaction measure of employees. We started with 22. We were at 35 last year, and the last survey, which we just got two weeks ago, is at 38. It's a big jump from 22- 38 in the last four years. The participation rate of our employees jumped also from 74% four years ago to 84% across 165,000 employees in the last four years. I can tell you that we are close to that.

For me, it's important to have a low turnover, and I think when we compare with other industries, other competitors within our industry, we have a lower turnover and therefore higher loyalty, higher skills, and a very engaged workforce for Saint-Gobain. We are cautious about that. It's very important to have all the teams of Saint-Gobain engaged. Here again, like with our customers, it's a lot of local communication on the priorities, not too many, but to make sure that they are on board and they are well treated. Last point, because I don't want to be too long, they've got also a large and good variable pay based on the 2021 results.

Some of the variable pay is paid also quarterly in 2022, so we had good first half, and they see also the benefit and the alignment between their strong efforts and the variable pay that is delivered to them. It's a lot of data points, but for me, and it's a very important question, it's also the success of Saint-Gobain is done by the teams of Saint-Gobain.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Coming to your question on Europe, Nabil, I think it's important to not just see quarter-on-quarter, while, you know, if you wanna see the quarter-on-quarter, we need to also be getting into the details of working days effect. As we already said that there is an important data point to keep in mind, the working days. Otherwise, in general, it's new construction which is down. Renovation continues to resist well. But don't forget, when you look at the YTD end of September, we are talking of a growth still more than 6% volume in 2020 as compared to 2019. At this point of time, we continue to see a good trend in the renovation market.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

You know, we have the weekly sales. I alluded a bit on the October. I don't want to be too loud on that, but we have the weekly sales of our distribution business in France, and it's nicely above 2019. The trend continues, and we are above 2019 indeed as a reference point.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

The order backlog is around five months.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Which is at a high plateau.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Yeah.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

vs history.

Nabil Ahmed
Director and Head of European Construction, Building Materials & Infrastructure Research, Barclays

Okay. That's useful. Thank you.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Gregor Kuglitsch from UBS. Please go ahead.

Gregor Kuglitsch
Executive Director, UBS

Hi. Good evening. A couple of questions, if that's okay. The first is, could you just give us a sense how much new build is actually declining? I mean, sort of ballpark figure, maybe it's a bit of a range, but that would be interesting to know. Whether it's, I don't know, 10% down or more, I don't really know. Second question is, on GCPs, you said you had a good start. I think the margins were a bit disappointing. You called out some issues. Can you give us sort of a sense how quickly, compared to what you talked about at the time of acquisition, you think you can achieve those EBITDA targets? I believe there were some absolute numbers. Then maybe the final question, maybe shorter term one. Q3 autos were very strong.

I think that's also kind of known from the production data. Is that kind of a bit of a one-off for you as well? Just because I guess there was a low comp and et cetera, and therefore, we can't extrapolate that. Maybe related to that, you've historically talked about a margin in HPS. I think you were sort of saying between H1 of this year and H2 of last year. Do you still stand by that guidance or is it better? Thank you.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Thank you. I take the second and third. Auto, you know, we are cautiously optimistic about the auto recovery because the last three years have been bumpy. We all know, for whatever reason, but a lot of different reasons. No, the order intake continues to improve, so there has been a strong recovery from a very low base. Q3 last year was the lowest reference. I think we are gaining a bit of share thanks to our very strong positioning on electric vehicle, because it's not only in Europe, it also North America and in Asia. Q4 should continue in the same trend, but let's.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

There was a comparison benefit for Q3.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Q3, for sure.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Yeah.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Overall, it's recovering. Let's take it to

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Yeah, I won't.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

I won't-

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

I won't extrapolate just like that.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Overall, for the HPS margin, we expect our second half margin to be stronger than the second half of last year and the overall margin for the year to be in the same order of magnitude than last year for HPS. Automotive is improving and it's a significant impact on the top line. Of course, as you know and as you'd expect, you know, automotive is below the average of HPS margin.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

It has been a bit of a journey to changing the business model of pushing the price. These guys are not used to getting the price increase. I think there has been a significant shift which we have brought. I think we are happy to see some clear sequential improvement, but we still have a way to go. This is something which is very clear to the team that they need to constantly push because the inflation has been pretty high, so prices need to go up in Mobility. That's an area where we need to really work more.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

On GCP, maybe a few points we expect, you know, and we will disclose all that to you in February, the year of 2022 for GCP to be flat more or less versus the year 2021. Second half benefiting from their pricing actions, which were a bit slow, I would say, to some of our expectations at the beginning of the year. Their first half was challenging because of that cost increase, but a big delay on the pricing. Second half is better. All in all, they will end more or less flat versus 2021. For us, the first year starts next year, you know, in our three years journey to create value.

When I say a good start is that the chemistry, if I could use this word for construction chemicals, the chemistry between the teams is very good. The appetite and the enthusiasm for the GCP teams to join us has been prepared, of course, for the last 10 months. The organization is clear. We have appointed the different managers from day one. There were a lot of town halls. All that is in place and we know exactly what we have to do. Again, management is in place. We know what we have to do in terms of clarity on the customer margin within GCP, security of supply on raw materials and supply chain. I mentioned that earlier, which was something a bit hectic and difficult for GCP in the past. SG&A savings because they are pretty high versus our benchmark and Chryso benchmark on SG&A.

Also the benefits of all the integration of polymers. As you know, Chryso is one of the only two players in the world to manufacture their own polymers, starting from monomers that you can buy on the commodity market and make the polymers. We'll bring that benefit also to GCP. This is what I would like to say. It's a three-year journey to create value, and this is the business plan we have shared with you. We are very confident that we have all the ingredients, the teams and the different buckets of actions. I would say the reaction from the teams has been good and all the managers, et cetera, are in place country by country.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Okay, Gregor, on the new build, maybe I'll help you to give you some data point which probably can be useful. One is you know that new construction in Saint-Gobain sales is around 30%, so I think that's a good data point to keep in mind. The other places where we clearly highlighted where we have a volume drop is we said U.K., Brazil, and China. These are the four places which has clearly seen the impact on volume. I'll let you now do your math and come up with the figure.

Gregor Kuglitsch
Executive Director, UBS

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Tobias Woerner from Stifel Europe. Please go ahead.

Tobias Woerner
Managing Director of Equity Research, Stifel

Yes, good evening. Thanks for taking three, if I may. The first one relates to your material input costs and the key ingredients there when you look at them and, you know, create an index. It seems to me that the cost or the price inflation has peaked in Q1 actually, and it's started to come off. If it continues to do so, then.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Can you, Tobias, be closer to the mic because your voice is breaking?

Tobias Woerner
Managing Director of Equity Research, Stifel

Okay, apologies. I'm not sure whether my mic is working. Okay. The question is the material input costs seem to have peaked in Q1 of this year and are starting to come down. You're still increasing your prices. On that basis, you should be expanding your margins. Firstly, is that observation correct, that the material input costs are starting to come off? Secondly, you know, is that a right assumption to take that you will continue to increase prices despite your input costs coming off? The second question.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Yeah

Tobias Woerner
Managing Director of Equity Research, Stifel

Will, if I may just follow on

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Go ahead. Go.

Tobias Woerner
Managing Director of Equity Research, Stifel

Yeah. The second question is just to follow on from the question around GCP. I mean, you targeted, I think, EUR 100 million of EBITDA. You're saying this is just gonna be delayed by one year, and then you're gonna start your three-year journey. And more importantly, will you continue to report on that basis because you're breaking up the business into the HPS and the North American division? And then just lastly, it seems to me that pricing across the board seems to have decelerated in Q3 versus Q2. Should we assume that we're peaking there too as well? Maybe with the exception of HPS, which is accelerated. Thank you very much.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Sreedhar will give you the details, but sequentially, in every single region, we have had an increase on pricing sequentially Q2- Q3. On GCP, Tobias, what we said is that the year one for us on the 170 is 2023 because we just closed on the first of October, so better to have a calendar year, and it will be the first year of 2023. Of course, like we have done with Continental, like we'll do also with Chryso, we will give you the full picture of how we create value for those large significant acquisitions. We'll reconcile what is in North America and what is High Performance Solutions so that we have the full view on the value creation for GCP, like we gave it to you for Continental.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Yeah. Coming to your trend on material input cost, I wish it was true what you said, Tobias, but the fact is that we still have inflation. The inflation is still on. The energy volatility is still there. It is true that the last few days probably it is showing some indication, but the fact is that the inflation remains high, at a high level. For me, we have to keep a watch, and at the end of the day, you know, if the prices, if the material cost comes down, then we need to also then adapt and adjust ourselves in the market, to make sure that we don't stand out as the only one who is looking for the price. I think our pricing would be a dynamic situation.

That's why it's very important to keep in mind that the focus is going to be on a price-cost spread. That's where we will continue to remain, by country, where the country units will keep monitoring and optimizing wherever they can. That's a very important thing. The second thing we need to also keep in mind that, you know, 2023, you would see, even though it's relatively, it will be lower inflation than what you had in 2022, because the energy price, on an average basis would still be higher than what you would have had in 2022. It's important that we remain focused and prepare well for 2023.

Again, at the end of the day, it's important to make those intelligent trade-off and take appropriate decisions to ensure that we continue to grow and outperform the market. That's the key message to keep in mind. The other point which you asked on the pricing, I think Benoit already said that sequentially it's improving. Yes, on the face of it, you see that it is lower, but you have to keep in mind that the comparison base is tougher. Even in the Q4, you are going to have a comparison base tougher. You have, at the group level, it's around 2%, 2% points, which will be tougher as compared to last year. You just have to factor that in your analysis.

Tobias Woerner
Managing Director of Equity Research, Stifel

Okay. Thank you. The question was actually related to the materials part of your input costs, not the energy side. When you look at-

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

There are a lot of things which is linked to energy, Tobias. You know, when you talk about resins and transportation, all these things are linked.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

You have, Tobias, only a few items like timber, recently aluminum, steel, which went down. Overall, and it was part of the questions earlier on, the polymers, the soda ash-

Tobias Woerner
Managing Director of Equity Research, Stifel

Paper

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Paper, anything which has as an input some energy will be more expensive next year. This is why we have anticipated all year long, and we are still working on our pricing so that we enter 2023 in a good position. Yes, there have been a few exceptions here and there. Don't overreact on the fact that natural gas in Belgium, you know, was lower two days ago. Again, the futures for November, December, January, year 2023 is still at 120- 140. All the input costs for raw materials for all the other players is based on that. I think we should not overreact one direction or the other. Of course, when it's still down, of course, we will benefit from it. For instance, in our CapEx, steel was higher for a good portion of the year.

Now we know that steel in our civil engineering structure will benefit a bit from that and leverage this upcoming trend on steel, but it's a minority within the different categories.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

In any case, this will be monitored on a daily basis to make sure. I mean, that's the biggest advantage of the new organization, where there is ownership and people are hands-on in the country.

Operator

Excellent. Thank you so much, gentlemen.

Thank you very much. The next question comes from Cedar Ekblom from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Cedar Ekblom
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Thanks very much. Hi, guys. Two follow-up questions. I don't know if you would share what your volumes in distribution were in Europe in the third quarter, and then what the volumes were in the direct or industry divisions. On the M&A that you've done, there's obviously lots of moving parts with acquisitions and divestitures. Would you be willing to confirm the pro forma margin improvement that we could expect from all of that M&A? Thank you.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

What I can tell you is that, yes, we will have a like-for-like improvement in operating income. Excluding the scope effect, which will be of course relative, we will have a like-for-like improvement on the operating income, if I understand your question correct.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

No, I mean, you know, we have talked about structural improvements. All that what we did is around 200 basis points, and

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Just for this year, so.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Yeah. All the M&As, which we have done, so that if you look at the rotation of portfolio, should be something like 140 basis points. The 60 basis point would be-

Cedar Ekblom
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

I'm thinking more specifically on GCP and Kaycan, which is obviously just closed.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Uh-

Cedar Ekblom
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

If there's any margin uplift.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Yeah.

Cedar Ekblom
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

We should be thinking about those businesses into next year.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

It would be there, but in a limited way at the group level.

Cedar Ekblom
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Okay. The distribution volumes, I don't know if you would be willing to share how those volumes have trended?

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

It's good that you're asking me this question, so you know our answer, Cedar, because you know, we are not organized like this, so it really doesn't make sense to get into these details because you know, it's important that at the end of the day, we have to be aligned to the way we are organized. In any case, you know, distribution is very important from a renovation point of view. Just like keep that in mind. We are confirming that the renovation market as of now continues to remain resilient.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Frances, you know, you asked a lot of questions about the pricing power of Saint-Gobain. The fact that we are so close to the small craftsmen and customers through our distribution network in some countries help actually being able to anticipate. What I alluded to earlier in the call regarding the discussions we had with the federations of the craftsmen, of the home builders in France, it was through our distribution business and our distribution presence in the country. It does give us a good grip on, you know, the trend, how to outperform renovation, how to recycle products, and also how to train the whole value chain when there is a pricing environment as of today. Of course continue to push the renovation, building standards, all the energy diagnosis performance that we mentioned during the call.

It's part of the outperformance of Saint-Gobain in those markets.

Sreedhar N
CFO, Saint-Gobain

Overall, yeah. I think it's important to keep in mind it's renovation.

Cedar Ekblom
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Great. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Ross Harvey from Davy. Please go ahead.

Ross Harvey
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Davy

Thanks. Just one question from me. I'm wondering, is your attitude towards M&A, whether acquisitions or disposals, changing in the context of the current environment? Do you expect to see valuations in the market adjust?

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

A few points to answer. Well, first, we have to integrate well what we have in our hands. Chryso again has had a very good first year, you know, close to the 25% like-for-like growth and very strong performance. We have Kaycan, which started well. We have GCP. We have to integrate, and our teams in several parts of the world are busy with that. For me, that's the number one priority. Second, we are happy, and I think it's a good position to be in to have a strong balance sheet, even after GCP and Kaycan on a pro forma basis, we're at 1.5x, you know, EBITDA on the debt side. We are with a strong, very strong balance sheet. I think it's a good position to be in.

If and when there are some opportunities in the next 12-18 months, we will have the flexibility to size those opportunities. Again, priority number one is to be very good at execution on value creation, like we have done very well with Continental. Same story for Chryso, GCP, and Kaycan. Indeed, if there are some attractive targets with lower expectations from the sellers down the road, we will be flexible, and we will have the financial means to do that. The third point I would add is that around the world also, with our country structure, we have the ability to leverage organic growth and organic growth CapEx. We have done a lot of that. You know, it doesn't take much to add a construction chemical plant. The small, you know, addition of plants we have done in Africa.

Last year, I think it was 5 or 6 new plants. We have done in Southeast Asia, we are doing in India. All those organic growth CapEx are extremely good. The fact that we deliver a fantastic performance in India is based on organic growth. We have added insulation through acquisition in India, but the rest is organic growth. We have also, if the seller expectations are a bit too high or if we don't have the perfect target, we will deliver our organic growth plan. It's not because we have a solid balance sheet that we will feel forced, pushed, to spend the money on not so good acquisitions. We'll continue to be very selective and also extremely focused on, execution of integration.

Ross Harvey
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Davy

Thanks. Do you have any thoughts on disposals?

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

We will continue to prune the portfolio like we have done, you know, for a bit more than EUR 6.5 billion over the last three years. I think it's today that we closed our Polish distribution business, Budmat. You know that we keep pushing on that, and we are busy. Yes, we'll continue to look at how to optimize and fine-tune country by country the perimeter of Saint-Gobain, so that in every single country all the product lines add value to each other and help us deliver the maximum of positive IMPAC from our solutions.

Ross Harvey
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Davy

Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you very much. There are no further questions. Dear speakers, back to you.

Benoit Bazin
CEO, Saint-Gobain

Thank you very much for your questions and your time. You will join us again for our 2022 results on the 23rd of February 2023. I thank you for participating in this call. Again, a strong third quarter of Saint-Gobain. Very confident on the guidance with a double-digit margin. Second year like that for Saint-Gobain. I would like also to thank all the Saint-Gobain teams who have delivered such a strong third quarter altogether around the world. Thank you, and I wish you a very good evening. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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