Good morning! It is my pleasure today to present our first half 2023, together with Sreedhar, our Group CFO, we will give you all our financial metrics and performance. The key point, of course, is that we continue to deliver consistently very strong performance. Record results in the first half of 2023, and 2023 will be again, a year of double-digit margin for Saint-Gobain, the third consecutive year. Let me first share with you some of the highlights of the year before we go into the financial details with Sreedhar. I will start with a few illustration, examples of how our solutions are delivered, are used in the field, country- by- country. One example in Bucharest, Romania, of a housing and office complex, where 10 different Saint-Gobain solutions, both interior, exterior, solar control glass, have been implemented, partition walls, acoustic ceilings.
Second example, the United Arab Emirates Pavilion, that recently won the Saint-Gobain Gypsum International Trophy. It does include 19 Saint-Gobain solutions, notably our glass mat, reinforced plasterboard, but also acoustic solutions and insulation. Here you have an example close to Paris, close to us, with Nexity. Nexity is a partner, and it chose 10 of our best solutions to deeply renovate what used to be the regional council headquarters. This project does use our new ORAÉ glass, which is, as you know, the lowest carbon footprint glass on the market, and also our Placo Infinaé 13, our plasterboard that we launched a few months ago, which is made of more than 50% recycled material. I finish with India. Here, our teams have leveraged the full range of solutions of Saint-Gobain for the Indian Parliament, so a very iconic realization, of course.
Windows, facades, partitions, fire-resistant glass, ceilings, et cetera. Our solutions are everywhere in this building. Our financials now. In the first half, once again, we have delivered new record results. On the like-for-like basis, our sales are up 1.6% compared to the first half of last year at EUR 25 billion. We delivered a record operating margin of 11.3%, despite more difficult underlying markets, and our operating income is up 2.1% at constant exchange rate to reach EUR 2.8 billion. Another record also on the recurring net income, just above EUR 1.8 billion. Our cash jumped nicely by 30% compared to the first half of last year to reach EUR 2.2 billion. A great set of financial results with new records.
We also continued to work on our extra-financial performance, and here also, just in the first half, we delivered on our sustainability roadmap with many examples, but I picked two of them, two world-first that we achieved during the first half. In Norway, we have now started the zero-carbon production of our plant in Fredrikstad, zero-carbon production Scope 1 and 2, and we are the only manufacturer in the world to offer this. In March, we also carried out the world-first pilot production of flat glass with more than 30% of hydrogen. This would allow us to reduce direct CO₂ emissions by up to 70%. In a nutshell, our Grow & Impact strategy has proven to be very effective once again during this first half. We continue to roll out our offering with comprehensive solutions.
You just saw a minute ago some pictures of what it means in the field and how it allows our countries and our country's use to outperform our markets. Second, we continue to lead on sustainability, not only on the reduction of our manufacturing emissions, but also now with our low carbon offer for our customers. Our local organization, which has delivered very well over the last years, has proven once again, how we can be proactive with the right action plans altogether. We continue to actively strengthen our growth and profitability profile with no less than EUR 3.3 billion of sales rotated just during the first half of 2023.
I'm very confident that our strategy will continue to drive consistent and strong success for Saint-Gobain going forward, and I now turn to Sreedhar, who will give you all the metrics and details on our financials. Sreedhar, the floor is yours.
Thank you, Benoit. Good morning, everyone. Let me give you some more details about our first half 2023 results. Starting with sales growth, we saw an organic growth of 1.6% in the first half, despite a very difficult environment. Pricing was up 7.9%, mainly due to the rollover impact from the last year's price increase, with also some additional price increases and certain adjustments done locally in the first half. Our local organization continued to demonstrate its ability to manage proactively the inflation in raw materials and energy in each country by product line. We now expect raw materials and energy inflation of around EUR 600 million in 2003, almost all in the first half.
Given the strong focus on price cost spread by each and every country CEO, we remain confident to once again deliver a price cost spread positive in 2023. This is something which we did consistently for the last few years. As we expected, we saw a moderate slowdown in markets, with volumes down 6.3% in H1. We have a contrasting situation between the market decline in the new construction and the overall good resilience in renovation. In addition, we had a negative working day impact in Q2 of around -2%. The foreign exchange impact became more negative in Q2. We expect it to be something more in the second half. When you compare with the spot rate of exchange now, it would be something like -4.5% for the second half.
When you look at the operating profit, we have achieved again, a record operating income and the margin, despite the lower volumes that I just explained. The operating income has grown very strongly since 2018, with an average growth of 13% per year if we compare all the first halves. It is once again a double-digit margin for the third consecutive year. We have gained 30 basis point improvement in first half as compared to last year, first half. This demonstrates the resilience of the transformed Saint-Gobain, with a much better business profile and a decentralized and empowered country organization, which allows us to adjust and quickly adapt to the different end market situations country by country. We are managing our pricing and adapting our cost where we need to. At the same time, we are also investing for growth where we see opportunities.
This is what has allowed us to deliver consistently for the last five years. Let us look at the other lines of the PNL below the operating income. We achieved another new record of EBITDA in the first half, with also a record margin of 15% in the first half. The capital gains and losses line is mainly linked to the divestments of U.K. distribution, with the currency conversion effect over the years. The asset write-downs and other lines is mainly linked to the impact of purchase price allocation for recent acquisitions like Continental Building Products, Chryso, Kaycan, and GCP. Recurring net income reached a new record level at EUR 1.8 billion, and recurring earning per share is up 1.7%, benefiting from the share buybacks program with EUR 160 million already bought back in the first half.
We continue to buy shares. We will deliver at least our EUR 400 million buybacks for 2023, what we committed. If you look at the cash flow, we have achieved the free cash flow of EUR 2.2 billion. Free cash flow generation is now structurally higher because of the strong cash culture that we have implemented throughout the organization and also due to our strong business profile. The total CapEx of EUR 616 billion, up 4%, with growth CapEx increasing faster at 14%. This is consistent with what we outlined in the Capital Markets Day. That is, to optimize the maintenance CapEx and reallocate this CapEx fund to more into the growth CapEx, which are in identified markets. This should clearly lead to around EUR 2 billion of CapEx for the financial year of 2023.
The strong free cash flow generation has enabled us to maintain a strong balance sheet, while at the same time, investing for the growth and also delivering attractive shareholder returns, with return on capital employed, sustaining a level above 15%. The net debt to EBITDA ratio remained flat at 1.2 times at the end of June. Let us look at results by reporting segment. Overall, in Europe, we continue to see a resilient renovation markets despite the slowdown in new construction. Northern Europe, as you know, is much more exposed to the new construction, suffered more than the Southern Europe, and we see that after several quarters of slowdown, Q2 actually saw the same volume drop in Q as compared to Q1 at constant working days.
Nordic countries resisted, thanks to our presence across the full value chain, despite tough new construction markets, especially in Sweden. The U.K. was supported by market share gain in facade and interior solutions. The German and Eastern European markets suffered the most from high inflation and interest rate increases, which hit the new construction market. The region achieved a record operating margin of 8.6%, benefiting from the optimization of portfolio and also excellent pricing management, as well as a proactive cost initiative. In the Southern Europe, our comprehensive solutions helped us to once again outperform. The region marked the renovation market continued to be more resilient, thanks to the stricter regulations and subsidies, whereas the new construction slowed.
In France, we continue to benefit from our unique presence across the value chain and an undisputed leadership position in energy-efficient renovation, with an ongoing increase of public support towards residential and non-residential sectors. This is an excellent news for energy-efficient renovation in the country. Our position as the reference on the renovation value chain has allowed us to strengthen our market position in a very consistent manner. In Spain, our solutions for light and sustainable constructions are doing well in a generally dynamic construction market, while in Italy, the renovation market remained supported by stimulus measures, which have been extended at a more sustainable level. We achieved a good operating margin of 8.6% in the region. In the Americas, growth was supported by the rebound in North America in Q2.
This helped us to achieve a new opera record of operating margin in the region with a margin of 17.8%. In North America, the sales of our complete solutions for light and sustainable construction and our strong renovation presence drove growth. The new construction market has stabilized over the last six months, with positive signs at the end of H1. We passed a price increase in May in roofing and have announced another price increase in August. We continue to gain share in siding markets, thanks to all the cross-selling initiatives implemented on exterior solutions over the last years. Similarly, we are doing a very good progression, seeing in gypsum markets across the North American market.
Canada, which is an important country for us now, that you see that we have been making a lot of acquisitions, and we clearly see a double-digit growth in H1 coming from prices and as well as volumes. Latin America suffered from the macroeconomic environment still being difficult in Brazil, where situations should finally improve by end of 2023. Mexico, however, benefited from a good integration of IMPAC in construction chemicals, with commercial synergies accelerating, and we also plan to build the new Prismo plant on the IMPAC site. Other countries in the region continue to be supported by sales price and enhanced positive mix, targeted acquisitions, such as Stoneway in Argentina, to enhance the range of solutions that we offer country by country in the region.
In the Asia Pacific region, we saw good sales dynamic and achieved a strong operating margin of 12.5%. India performed well on a high comparison basis, thanks to the market share gains and an innovative offer. It was also driven by our targeted investments for growth, with the successful integration of our acquisitions of Rockwool India Private Limited and U.P. Twiga , completing the whole insulation offer in the country, and the new capacities in glass, in particular, that we added recently. We are the pioneer in the green buildings in India, with our solutions widely used in the country, and I'm personally excited to tell you that we have launched, even in a country like India, the first global low carbon glass for the market, which is actually 40% less CO2 emission.
China delivered a good growth in Q2, after the start of the year being impacted by the reopening post-COVID. We opened a new plant in plasters and plasterboard to respond to the strong demand for the light construction materials to replace the traditional construction methods. Southeast Asia benefited from the diversification of our light solutions offering, and continued to reinforce its position with the recent acquisition of Basf Crete and Hume. Vietnam has improved its dynamic in Q2, and we also continue to gain share. Let us look at our global markets, customer market, that we saw a good sales growth benefiting from innovation, the recovery in European automotive, and prices are also holding up well.
The margin was slightly below in H1 as compared to last year, that is 12.3%, given the price mix impact of mobility. Showed a significant sequential margin improvement as compared to H2 of last year. Our construction industry business showed strong growth, mainly linked to the integration of GCP. Chryso and GCP continue to show a good sales strength, driven by innovative solutions to decarbonize the construction industry. Chryso is benefiting from Saint-Gobain's strong presence in industry. Clearly, we see that in the emerging markets, we are able to make acquisitions like Matchem in Brazil. Also, we are able to quickly expand our CapEx and the new plants in many countries. Particularly, we saw India was done in a very short period of time.
Our mobility sales grew 20% like for like, supported by a progressive catch-up in sales price and recovery of European automotive, as well as continued the good trends in Americas and Asia. We continue to outperform the automotive market, thanks to our strong presence in electric vehicle. Industrial markets were driven by pricing and our high-end market materials and technologies to help our customers decarbonize with the industrial market mix. To conclude, we have, as Benoit said, once again delivered a record results and continue to outperform despite the more challenging underlying markets, and particularly with the negative volumes. We are going to, as we said, deliver, again, a double-digit margin in 2023, which means that we are talking about a consistent performance for the third consecutive year, which with a double-digit margin.
I'm very confident with the fact that we have an empowered and decentralized organization where every country CEO is focused on customer, looking at different solutions that he can offer, the differences he can bring in his market, constantly, proactively adapting the cost structure, focusing on margin. There is absolutely no reason why Saint-Gobain will not consistently deliver a good performance, even in the future, in the years to come. I will now pass on the floor to Benoit. Thank you.
Thank you, Sreedhar. Let me give you an update on our strategy. This new set of record results proves how our Grow & Impact strategy is delivering consistently strong performance. As the worldwide leader in light and sustainable construction, Saint-Gobain is stronger and more resilient than ever. Why is that? First, because we have positioned the group on high-growth markets, and second, because we have developed all the levers to outperform. Let me illustrate those two points. First, on our markets, they are driven by strong mega trends, climate change, and the need to decarbonize construction, necessity to preserve natural resources, circular economy, and of course, rapid urbanization in emerging markets. These three fundamental challenges call for a sustained growth on our three key markets: renovation, notably linked to energy efficiency, light construction, and decarbonization of our industrial customers. I start with renovation, our largest market.
We have there a strong leadership on this market in Europe, and this is why we are making the most of the increasing regulatory momentum. Energy efficiency renovation is growing faster than general renovation, estimated four times faster in France, for instance. Why? Because it's at the crossroads of the energy crisis, the climate crisis, and social issues around housing. A few examples on the residential market to start with. In France, owners of dwellings with the lowest energy efficiency class cannot rent their property anymore, and the rule is going to be further tightened, so you can estimate by in the next four years, roughly 17% of the current housing might have to be renovated in order to be rented. Also, in France, the government just recently announced that they will double the subsidy, MaPrimeRénov', between 2021 and 2024 at EUR 4 billion.
In the U.K. also, there is a minimum energy efficiency requirement for rental of private properties. This type of renovation tends to require smaller investment than new build, and that are mainly financed by personal savings. We can estimate that by roughly 70% of renovation being financed by personal savings, and therefore, less sensitive to the evolution of the interest rates. This momentum on renovation does exist also on non-residential. Legislation at the European level does require by 2030, that around a quarter, 25% of public buildings should be renovated. In France, we didn't talk a lot about it in the last year, but it does exist. There is a Décret Tertiaire that does require all large commercial buildings to cut their energy consumption by 40% before 2030. In the Netherlands, all offices have to reach also a minimum C energy class from 2023.
All these regulations imply massive works of renovation to come, and this is why the renovation market is demonstrating some strong resilience. It makes a bit more than 60% of our sales in Europe. Our second market is light construction. It has many benefits compared to traditional construction, and this is why it's growing, depending on the countries, on average, 3- 5 points higher than traditional construction around the world. In parallel to that, there is a structural need for increased new build in all regions. Everywhere, countries are facing severe housing shortages. There is a shortage of close to 4 million houses in the U.S., and this is also why we see, you know, the bumping of housing starts like we have seen strongly in May, an estimated 20 million in India, but also in many European countries.
In the U.S., as I said, new built market is showing signs of stabilization, with already key indicators starting to improve. Saint-Gobain is present in 75 countries. Western Europe, new residential represents only 12% of our total sales, while we have also 10% in the growing markets of North America and Asia, emerging markets for new residential construction. You know that each geography has a different cycle, which does smooth the group overall exposure to local temporary slowdowns, because again, the shortage is there and is growing when there is a drop of new construction. Finally, on our global markets, the need for decarbonization is a strong driver for all our three segments. In construction, low-carbon cement and concrete are growing rapidly, with an expected 11% growth rate in the years to come.
This is very supportive to our innovation for Chryso and GCP, our new admixtures, which are a must-have component for this low-carbon cement and concrete. On mobility, electrical vehicles are expected to grow roughly 33% annually between now and 2025. They demand a particular performance for auto glazing in terms of shapes, in terms of weight, in terms of solar control, so that you can save on the air conditioning and save on the autonomy of the battery, and for our security business. We are experts in this field in terms of coating technologies on glass, we have built a leading position in supplying the electrical vehicle around the world. Finally, decarbonization of industry. We have 75% of the world's biggest companies that have set net zero commitment.
For their industrial products or processes, they need specialty materials such as high-performance ceramics, which help customers to have less carbon in their industrial processes or products. You see, all in all, our market fundamentals are robust, and our position is very strong on these mega trends. With our strategic plan, Grow & Impact, we have also developed all the levers to continue to outperform on those strong markets. First, we are continuously optimizing our profile for more growth and profitability. This has been true over the last four years, during which we have rotated approximately 1/3 of our sales, both through value-creative acquisitions and divestments of the underperforming assets. We continue to be very active with EUR 2 billion sales acquired over the last 12 months and EUR 3.4 billion of sales divested. We are building a worldwide leadership position in construction chemicals.
Chryso again, has continued to show strong growth and best-in-class profitability during this first half. By leveraging the Saint-Gobain worldwide footprint, Chryso has been able to expand in different geographies such as Brazil, India, Egypt, recently, either with Bolton acquisitions or new production lines. Of course, building on Chryso and its very experienced management team, we are integrating GCP according to plan with many synergies, already delivering results, notably on SG&A savings, purchasing, and supply chain optimization. Everywhere we have launched the backward integration of polymerization for GCP countries being delivered by Chryso, this will be fully effective in the second half. If I take just North America, I was there two weeks ago, I can tell you that the combined forces of Chryso and GCP have also allowed us to have major commercial wins on admixtures in the Americas.
Another strong and dynamic example, of course, is Canada, where we have expanded with a complete offer of light and sustainable construction with Kaycan on siding, we have acquired a leading position. The integration is on track with synergies being realized step by step. The last key product category that was missing for comprehensive interior, but also exterior products, was roofing for us in Canada. Building Products of Canada is the absolute perfect match. We expect to close this acquisition before the end of the year. I were there also two weeks ago. I can tell you the teams are very eager to join the forces of Saint-Gobain in Canada and the forces of Saint-Gobain in roofing all together in North America.
Canada is a very good example of how very good growth and very logical growth strategy has been implemented in the last two years, where we doubled our sales to reach roughly CAD 1.8 billion and being now the number one building materials manufacturer in Canada. All in all, we have deeply rebalanced our geographic footprint to support higher profitable growth and more resilience. Today, over 60% of our group income comes from the higher growth markets of North America, Asia, and emerging markets. We continue to invest in those regions. Two-third of our growth CapEx over the last 12 months and 20 lines of 23 were made there in North America, Asia and emerging markets. Not only on acquisition, but also capital allocation on our CapEx.
Our second lever to outperform is our powerful country organization, with full ownership and accountability of our country CEOs on their PNL. Our local teams are empowered to make the right decisions. You know, 90% of them are native from their country. They have a deep understanding of their local markets, the customer, the growing channels, and they continue to outperform country by country. It has proven to be very efficient to deal with changing market conditions, of course, in the last years, but also this year. Priority was given first to pricing management, also commercial efficiency, to push the value-added solutions and the different systems and outperform the market, and also, where needed, proactive cost adjustments. Our country CEOs, they have fundamentally the goal to increase what we call the share of wallet, their share of wallet with customers with cross-selling. A few examples there.
In Poland, we created one Saint-Gobain solutions team to target complex projects, complex buildings, and leverage our full offering. We target, notably, for instance, the certified green buildings, where, of course, the acoustic, the thermal, the visual, the air quality, performance and solutions of Saint-Gobain are the best fit. Another example is what we have done over the last years in the U.S. on big box retail to leverage the full five product lines of Saint-Gobain, and also on key account management with the large professional builder merchant distributors in the U.S.. If I take just siding, in the wake of exterior products offer, we gain four points of siding in the overall U.S. market in the last four years. In France, we have also joint prescription teams.
A few examples which are interesting: in Paris, we sign an agreement with the City of Paris to take back all the plasterboard and glass when they renovate buildings and recycle that. It's part of our circular economy commitment. Of course, it saves on the cost of materials, it provides a very good service for the City of Paris. Another example, I mentioned it with the Carré Invalides in my first picture, with Nexity for low-carbon, affordable housing. Our offer allows us to outperform the market, also not only to cross-selling, but high value-added systems combining several products. This is illustrated on this chart. We leverage our innovation, we move from basic flat glass towards sustainable solutions like ORAÉ, the lowest carbon glass in the market, with all the published new Environmental Product Declaration.
We then combine this low-carbon glass, for instance, with solar control, with high-performance coatings and energy efficiency, and it moves up in terms of all added value. Same story on plasterboard. From a standard board that sells around, EUR 2 per square meter, depending on the country, to moisture, fire-resistant, robust plasterboard. We combine it with other products of Saint-Gobain to make a system. It could be with ADFORS fiberglass mat, it could be with glass wool, it could be with all kinds of products, including the GCP membrane, and then you move up to a system. You can see on this chart, and of course, it's very generic, it varies by system, it varies by country, but you can move from a few euros per square meter to 20 times, 50 times more when you reach finally the full solutions, set of solutions of Saint-Gobain.
For instance, for global renovation, where we can save 80% of the energy for an existing single-family house in France or elsewhere. That's a good example of not only the cross-selling, but how we develop more and more systems, combining the products and moving up in terms of added value, and therefore, of course, the pricing power when we sell a full set of system is much higher. This is the power of our country-based organization in a nutshell, but I suggest we listen to two of our country CEOs in India and in Mexico. Let take a few minutes to listen from them on their journey in their country. Let's launch the video, please.
Bonjour! At a moment when most of the regions in the world face strong challenges, rising interest rates, inflation, large economies in Asia, and in particular India, represent fantastic growth opportunities for Saint-Gobain now as well as for the decade ahead. Saint-Gobain's success in India is an inspirational implementation of our strategic plan, Grow & Impact. Our sales have grown 3 times during the last decade, given the rapid urbanization and the need for increased sustainability combined with productivity. In India, we are the only solutions provider to offer complete solutions for light and sustainable constructions for homes and the workspaces. We have a leadership position in all our product lines, notably glass and plasterboard, and now in insulation, thanks to our recent and successful acquisition of U.P. Twiga in glass wool and Rockwool India in stone wool.
Our recent acquisitions have also reinforced our leadership in construction chemicals, and we have leveraged our industrial footprint in India to open a new Chryso site in a record time. This is the way we methodically build up our presence across a comprehensive and cohesive offer. We promote our unique set of solutions with active advocacy to seize tremendous opportunities. Today, there are Saint-Gobain materials and solutions in seven out of ten Indian green buildings. We're excited about the future opportunities as the country is poised to grow exponentially faster.
Mexico is another clear illustration of how Saint-Gobain deploys its Grow & Impact plan in Latin America. I'm happy to share today part of our great story. Let me start by saying that in the past 5 years, we have more than doubled our sales, and today we count close to 8,000 people operating in 13 manufacturing sites. Historically, Saint-Gobain has been present in the construction and automotive glass, operating as a local leader. Given the potential of the country, in 2019, we enlarged our offer, entering the plasterboard market with the successful acquisition of Placo. That same year, we started a glass coater line to supply competitive solar control glass in the growing local market, offering solutions that reduce energy consumption in buildings.
The combination of our position in the construction market and the success of our electric vehicle glass solutions led us to start our third glass furnace in 2021 in the northern part of the country. Finally, last year, we entered the high-growth market of waterproofing with the acquisition of IMPAC. This acquisition in construction chemicals makes us the only player in Mexico to offer a comprehensive portfolio of building envelope solutions for light and sustainable construction. From day one, we leveraged IMPAC's strong presence in DIY retail channels to increase our share of wallet and cross-sell our other product lines. IMPAC benefited from Saint-Gobain distribution channels to access the U.S. and Central America markets. Today, we are planning to build a construction chemical plant on an IMPAC site to leverage synergies with Chryso, GCP, accelerating the growth in Mexico.
Looking at the success of the last years and the development needs of the country, I am very excited and confident about the future of Saint-Gobain in Mexico.
To conclude, we have all the levers required to continue to outperform. A very agile and empowered local teams and country organization, cross-selling of innovative and high value-added full range of solutions, and a value-creative, dynamic capital allocation and portfolio rotation. Let me give you an outlook for the rest of the year. 2023 will mark another successful year for Saint-Gobain and will continue to implement our Grow & Impact strategic priorities. We confirm our assumptions for our end markets in 2023 that we presented at the beginning of the year, at the end of February, i.e., contrasting trends between a marked decline in new construction in certain regions, but good resilience overall in renovation. We are raising our operating margin guidance.
Amid a moderate market slowdown, Saint-Gobain is now targeting for full year 2023, a double-digit operating margin again for the third consecutive year. Sorry. For the second half of 2023, the group is targeting an operating margin of between 9% and 11%, in line with the Grow & Impact strategic plan targets. I now have time with Sreedhar to take all your questions. Thank you.
Excuse me, this is the conference operator. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone.
I suggest we start with the questions from the room. Sorry, because we have the generosity of different.
investors and analysts coming to our headquarters in Paris. I suggest to take the question from the room. Yes, Arnaud?
Yeah, Arnaud in Field Research. 2 to 3 question, please. The first one on, can you update us on your guidance on the inflation, the energy inflation incremental cost? I had in mind you were around EUR 800 million for the full year.
Mm-hmm.
... you could probably revise it down. Second question will be on the distribution margins. Could you just give us a little more flavor on the evolution of the margin in H1 in the distribution business versus the one in the manufacturing business for Southern Europe? The third one is on the guidance for the second part of the year, 9%-11%. For the third consecutive year, you have provided a double-digit margin, and congratulations for that, by the way. You are still mentioning the 9% in your second semester guidance. What parameters of the equation could lead you to post only 9% in a context where normally the energy costs will be further down in H2?
Thank you, Arnaud. You take the first?
Yeah. Yeah. On inflation, at the beginning of the year, we actually indicated around EUR 1 billion. End of April, we said EUR 800 million, and now we are saying EUR 600 million, and almost all the inflation is in the first half. Okay, that's one message to retain. The second, on this inflation of EUR 600 million, around 10% of the inflation is coming from energy costs, and within energy costs, it's primarily because of electricity. Otherwise, the inflation, what we are seeing now is all in minerals, notably gypsum, sand, soda ash, cullet. It's cullet have gone up because I think everybody's focusing on CO2 and sustainability. These are the reasons why we still have some inflation, but overall the trend is good.
The most important point to keep in mind is that we are very confident to deliver price cost spread positive, not only for the full year, but also for the second half. I think that's the point which you need to retain.
On the second question, you know, we run our distribution business between 6% and 7% operating margin, we are there. It's not only France, it's also in the Nordic countries, we are there in the first half, benefiting from strong market share, overall presence on the full value chain, not only distribution, but all the rest, including manufacturing and benefiting from the strong resilience of renovation. Not much movement on those margins, whether I take the Nordic countries or a bit down in the Nordic countries because Sweden is affected, but very good resilience overall in France and within the guideline we gave at 6% to 7% for distribution in Europe.
On the guidance, you know, keep in mind that first, this year was the first year ever we guided on the margin for the full year, so I know you appreciate that. What matters is indeed the full year margin. We are not going to give you the quarterly margin, that should be a bit of micro management. On the second half, what we want to say and to show is that you are protected on the downside. Second, to be consistent, Saint-Gobain doesn't want to give negative surprises. You are protected on the downside, and we are consistent with the guideline and the range we outlined at the time of the Capital Markets Day in 2021. This is the main message: protected on the downside. We keep the guideline that we had at the time of the Capital Markets Day.
As Sreedhar said, the price cost spread will be positive in the second half. After that, we'll have ups and downs, notably on new build. I don't expect new build to improve in Europe. I expect, I said it, new build to stabilize, if not improve, at some point in North America. We have ups and downs by region, but overall, protected on the downside, confidence in the second half. Full year margin is the big picture, as you know, we will continue to do our best for Saint-Gobain. That's what I would say on the overall year margin, which is important to us and the second half.
Yes.
Question, Jean-Christophe?
Bonjour, good morning. 2 questions at this stage. First, follow-up question of Arnaud regarding distribution. Distribution, this is a key crossing point in the Saint-Gobain value chain. If we look at France, notably Point. P subsidiaries, the margin is close to 9%-10%. Does it means that Nordic distribution, it's much below? Second issue, Saint-Gobain solution projects in Poland and also in France, is that direct sales to contractors, or does the distribution network play the role? Many thanks.
Thank you. I don't know, Jean-Christophe, where you get your...
He seems to be more informed than us.
your French margin, because I don't look at the figure the same way. What is important to us is that both countries, because I look at that, as you know, by country, so it's not only one Point. P versus Placo in France or Isover in Sweden. We look at the full country margin. First, that's the very important point. There is not any more one business versus the other. I look at the performance. When we deliver on Nexity, it's delivered by the French performance, not only one business of glass or plasterboard or distribution. Second, the two businesses of Nordics and France are in this range of 6%-7%. If you think some are higher, fine, but it's very important for us that every single asset, whether it's manufacturing, whether it's distribution, is within the guideline that we outlined.
U.K. distribution, obviously, was not there, and this is why we divested in February. Second, on the Saint-Gobain solutions, in the particular case of Poland, it was, yes, delivered directly, but at the end of the day, what matters is the prescription. Because sometimes you can, you know, in a large country like the U.S., what matters is the prescription of our sales teams, and then the logistics can be done by distribution. And it's also a very interesting and important dynamic, that when you have strong technical teams, you prescribe, and then you give business to your distribution or partner, so that they're happy about this business that you provide to them, thanks to your power of prescription. And it might allow them to give you a bit more of the stock items, of the traditional stocked items.
It's not only a good dynamic on the prescription of direct sales, but also it has some ripple effect, positive, on the richness of what they carry in their inventory. Another question in the room before we turn to the call. We can always come back. I'm sure Arnaud will follow up with some questions at some point. Maybe let's take some of the questions. I see Elodie Rall first in line, so let's turn to the question from Elodie.
The first question is from Elodie Rall of JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Can I first ask about the outlook for volumes from here? I mean, I know you said you don't expect new builds to stabilize in Europe, or you see some better trends in North America. You talked a bit about renovation. Would you say that we've seen the worst in terms of volumes, and that, the, from here, we should see at least an improvement in the rate of decline? Would you say that in 2024 we could see a stabilization or a recovery in volumes? Then I have a sub-question on volumes, actually, specifically on France, and on renovation.
You said energy efficiency renovation is growing 4 times faster than the normal renovation, I think, and that stimulus is increasing further for 2024 in this sector. Would you expect positive renovation volumes in France in 2024 as a result? Then lastly, on free cash flow, you've had very strong performance. Free cash flow conversion was exceptionally strong at 65%. Do you think that you can continue at this level in H2, and maintain performance at this level for the full year? Thank you.
Thank you. Sreedhar, you start with the cash.
Okay. cash, Elodie, you know, I'm happy that we are consistently, again, delivering the good free cash flow, free cash flow conversion. I'm not going to guide you only for second half. We have said 50% is our objective, and you have seen consistently we have surpassed this objective. I remain very confident of delivering a good free cash flow, and this is something which is now across throughout the organization, everybody is focused on cash.
On the question, your question on volumes, overall, we are in line, and we expect to be in line with our full year guidance on volumes, i.e., mid-single digit down. As you know, the comp will be a bit easier in the second half in terms of comparison, that gives you the flavor of, yes, indeed, the rate of decline slowing down a bit. I'm not going to comment on 2024, except to say that in 2024, also, the comp will be easier. You know, on top of that, we gain market share in a lot of countries.
I think Sreedhar mentioned some of them, including in Europe, be it in the U.K., be it in France. We'll continue to push our added-value solutions and our particular focus on energy efficiency. Specifically on the French market, the statistics that I mentioned is coming from the CAPEB, which is the Federation of Craftsmen in France, so it's not the statistic from Saint-Gobain. Regarding France in 2024, again, for me, the good news among others is that we have an increased support, two times more than 2021 on the subsidy, MaPrimeRénov'. Keep in mind also that on schools, on public buildings, there have been announcements to be on the rise in the next four, five years on support and renovation of public schools in France.
There are also some positive like that. My last comment on 2024 in France, that we have the Olympics. Saint-Gobain is a proud supporter of the Olympics, and I will not comment more about the volumes in 2024, because we'll do that in February next year. We are confident about all the trends of Saint-Gobain going forward, whether it's renovation and particularly energy efficiency, whether it's our ability, I mentioned it, to outperform with a lot of levers, whether it's also the fact that in some countries, then I take the new built hat, on some countries, again, we are stabilized. I think versus the markets or some investors in our road shows over the last six months, we have been a bit more optimistic on the U.S. market, and we have proven to be right.
You know, the view of housing starts in the U.S., it has stabilized. May was actually the highest jump month-over-month since 1990 in the housing start, you still have this shortage of housing. Canada was up double digits, both between volumes and price, you have also some new build that at some point will bounce back. All in all, I'm confident about the trends of Saint-Gobain going forward, whether it's internal performance and delivering exceptionally well on what we can control. You know, the job of all of us is to make sure that we maximize the positive of what we can control, plus some good support on renovation, on new build in some geographies.
Great, thanks for that. If I can throw a last bonus question, maybe on construction chemicals. Would you give us some indication on where margins are at the moment on that division? That would be helpful. Thanks.
Margins are moving nicely in the right direction, and I'm, I cannot be as positive as I can on the quality of the teams and the integration that has been done between Chryso and GCP. Margins are moving nicely in the right direction, not only because of the savings on purchasing, on supply chain, on the SG&A, but also because of the very good price-cost management and pricing by product, by customer, that has been implemented very quickly across different geographies of Chryso and GCP. I'm extremely happy. We'll update you in early 2024, but the full year of this, of this great business, but I'm extremely happy with the move, faster than what I thought, frankly speaking, on the evolution of, not only the margin, but also the top line momentum.
I highlighted some of the examples in the U.S. for construction chemical. We are perceived also, it's interesting to see that a lot of people are joining us. I think we are perceived as a good dynamic, winning team on construction chemical.
Thanks very much. Thank you.
The next question is from Yves Bromhead of Societe Generale. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I just wanted to circle back maybe to the volumes and the HPS division. In H1, your like-for-like is down approximately 1% on the non-mobility side of the business. I just wanted to know if you could maybe comment on what was the driver behind that, given that there would be some pricing in here, and also on the margin performance, 12.3% in H1 is up sequentially, but down year-on-year. How should we think about the margin as we go into the second half of the year for that division? My second question is on pricing. You've commented on the roofing price increases in May and the one that you've announced for the summer.
Actually, could you maybe give us more transparency in terms of, are there any products for which you are still increasing prices sequentially in H2? Inversely, are there any ones where you're starting to see a downward evolution of prices? Last but not least, my last question is on the cost side. You've mentioned that you've proactively taken measures at the country level. Can you actually quantify the cost optimization and the savings that you've done in H1, and what would be your estimate for the full year? Thank you very much.
Thank you, Yves. I will take the third and the second, and then we'll move back to the first with Sreedhar. Third question, quantifies improvement in the margin. It's as simple as that. We moved from 11 to 11.3. It's a combination of cost action, pricing, commercial wins, and I think that's the best answer we can provide to you, and an easy one. On the pricing, if I move back, yes, roofing is one. I'm very happy, overall, the price cost management everywhere, then, you know, you have to go country- by- country. Yes, there are some areas where we secondarily continue to move out the prices. If I take, Sreedhar will answer about HPS, mobility, we continue to push up, and there will be some in the second half of pricing actions.
It's true on the different construction products in the different areas of the world. It has been very sustained at a high level in North America, for instance. We are pricing up in Canada, I mentioned it. It varies country- by- country, product line by product line. What is important is to understand, I think we highlighted it several times over the last years, that a country CEO is incentivized on the margin.
Their job is to make sure that they deliver a good margin, an improved margin year-on-year, and sometimes it's increasing the pricing on one product line, sometimes it's dropping a bit, the price we have adjusted, for instance, some of our pricing in glass in Europe, but not elsewhere in the world, to make sure that we continue to have the right balance between market share, price cost, and overall PNL margin. This is what our country CEOs are doing. The beauty about Saint-Gobain and the new organization is that you can play with a lot of product lines. If you are just in stone wool, you have to sell stone wool, and you have to deal with your prices of stone wool.
We sell stone wool, glass wool, we sell plasterboard, we sell glass, we sell plaster, we sell ceilings, a country CEO can play with all those product lines. This is why we have the ability, on top of what we are doing on cross-selling and added value systems, we have the ability to not only protect or gain market share, but also improve our margin. The recipe then is the fitness and the intimacy of our country CEOs, country by country with their channels and customers, and they do, I would say, a splendid job, and the result, as I said, is in the margin. You take the floor.
Yeah. Coming to High Performance Solutions, you know, if you recall last year in the second half, we did mention that mobility market, particularly the OEMs, it was a tough market to get the price increases. This is again, a great example to demonstrate the change in the culture, change in the focus of the result orientation throughout the organization, that where Saint-Gobain did take a tough posture, where we actually pushed the prices up. We saw the impact, which was coming later on. There was an impact in the second half, which was dropped, first half is improving. That's why it's important to look at the sequential progress that we are making in High Performance Solutions. We are in the right direction.
This margin of 12.3% is a very good margin, and this is something which we are very confident to hold on in 2023. Now, coming to your industry, you know, why we see a negative, I think there's one element we need to keep in mind, that we have a business within the High Performance Solutions is the construction industry, which is a part, not the construction chemicals, but there's another thing called ADFORS, which is basically the fabrics we make, which is much more exposed to the new construction market. We see that market is getting impacted, that's clearly one reason why we see some downward trend there. Otherwise, globally, the other industrial markets are moving in the right direction.
Thank you so much.
Next question from Cedar, if I'm correct. No, sorry, from Paul Roger. Sorry. You are second on the line. Let's go to Paul.
The next question is from Paul Roger of BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning, Benoit, Sreedhar. Congratulations on the results today. I'll have two questions, please. Firstly, on the energy efficiency regulation, obviously, you've spoken a lot about this, but I'm just wondering how set in stone those initiatives actually are, and whether they're already sort of legislated for. I guess I'm asking that because we saw last year with what happened with the coal fire, power stations, that sometimes the green agenda can collide with political reality, often the latter wins. Then secondly, can you remind us, Sreedhar, how hedged you are for natural gas in the second half, please?
Could you repeat again?
Basically, the energy efficiency, is it a serious affair?
Ah.
Because people did move to coal.
Yes. Is energy efficiency a serious affair? The answer is yes. I highlighted, you know, one mechanism, which I think is a good one and a very powerful one, is raising the bar from minimum energy efficiency. It's not something across the board in thousands of angles. It's basically raising the bar with minimum energy efficiency, be it on residential or non-residential, in order for you to rent your house or sell it. I can go a bit deeper into that. Since May first in France of this year, each time you sell a house, you need, by law, to have a diagnosis of energy performance, plus the list of the work that is required. Let's say if you are F, and you need to move to C. If you are the buyer or the seller, you can easily understand the dynamic.
You are trying to sell your G or F type of dwelling, because you don't want to renovate it, or you cannot rent it anymore, in two years or three years. The buyer is seeing the list of all the works. That comes as a discount in the value, or that comes as an upside if you sell a C or B or D class. All this dynamic is now on the ground. It's not a theory, it's on the ground by law. If I take France, if I take the minimum energy efficiency in the UK. It's a good thing to raise the bar from the bottom for several reasons. First, because that's the easiest to renovate.
You know, when you move from F to C, we highlighted several times that on average, energy efficiency home renovation is roughly EUR 250 per square meter in France. It does improve your energy bill, because you save 70% on the energy bill. It does improve your real estate value. That's on the energy type of things. Second, on the climate, there has been a study from the scientific committee in France saying that all the F and G dwellings, they make 70% of the CO2 emissions. If you care more about the CO2 than the energy bill, you have also to deal with those dwellings, raising the bar from the floor. It's moving up nicely. I don't think energy will come back at a very cheap level everywhere, because we will move towards more green electricity, green energy.
That does require a lot of investment, because we are lacking overall green energy, so it will be more expensive, and we see that going forward. Energy efficiency is a serious matter because that's good for the energy bill and social issues, good for the climate, and also good to save the energy and the green energy, to put it in the areas where you need it. You know, the good thing about housing, that you can have a passive house with zero energy. You cannot have electrical vehicle with zero electricity. You cannot have an industry with zero energy. We need to preserve the green energy for transport and industry going forward.
Coming to your question on hedging, Paul, I'm sure you'll not be happy with me, the fact is that we said end of February, this is a very market-sensitive information, it didn't help us. Last year, we gave a lot of information to all of you because it was a very peculiar situation. It was very volatile. In any case, nothing has changed from what the information we gave in the past, that should give you some confidence. The second thing I think to help you more is that I said EUR 600 million, only 10% of that is energy-linked inflation. Out of that also, I said it's all coming from electricity, you know, is less volatile, particularly when you see the factor of the CO2.
The CO2 is going up, the carbon credit price is going up, and that gets reflected on electricity cost, because everybody is asking for electricity to avoid gas, which is direct impact on the CO2 emissions. You know, honestly, hedging is not an issue, and we remain confident of delivering price cost spread positive in the second half, too. It's very well managed, very closely monitored.
Thank you. Let's move to question from Cedar now.
The next question is from Cedar Ekblom of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much. Good morning, gentlemen. Just a question on cash flow and the balance sheet. At the end of the first half, your net debt was up year-on-year. I think we can understand that linked to the cash outflows for acquisitions and also working capital outflow, at least in the first half of this year. I just want to understand, as we look into the second half of the year, how powerful should the working capital inflow be in the second half? Is it reasonable to assume that your net debt should be lower in December of this year, even with the roughly EUR 1 billion outflow that will be coming linked to the Canadian Building Products business? Thank you.
Yeah. Cedar, again, you know, you're asking me a difficult question to give me a very precise number, what I'm going to end up with the debt at the end of the year. I think what is important to know is, again, there is very good focus. You have seen, if you look at the last 12 months, the free cash flow has enabled Saint-Gobain to also not just take care of the CapEx, growth CapEx and the shareholder return, but also take care of large part of the M&A that we did. The GCP, Kaycan acquisition, the large part of it was paid through a strong free cash flow generation. We remain very confident. I think the other way of looking at it, we gave a leverage ratio, 1.5-2 times.
I think we will remain at the low end of this ratio, what we will see at the end of the year.
Thank you. I don't see this-
Sure, I understand that, but sorry, just a follow-up. I get where you're coming from with the net debt to EBITDA ratio, and you have had strong cash flow generation. Since the second half of 2020, we've now had a consistent increase in net debt in absolute terms. You know, sure, it's been at the same time as a strong increase in absolute EBITDA and cash flow generation. I understand that the two go together, but I think that the market is gonna start focusing on when do we actually start to see the net debt in absolute terms move lower, right?
I'm not asking for a point estimate at the end of the year, but is it reasonable to assume that your net debt at the end of this year should be lower than the net debt at the end of 2022? You should have a working capital inflow, which I guess would be offset by, you know, the outflow linked to Building Products of Canada.
Yeah, Cedar.
I don't know if you would.
Cedar, you're right.
Yeah, go ahead.
We would have the seasonality impact. The working capital impact should be lower in the second half, for sure. I mean, you know, when you look at the seasonality, we're talking of more than 10 days impact from first half to the second half. We just have to keep in mind that we will have Building Products Canada payment to be made in the second half, depending on the closure when it happens.
A cautious answer from a cautious CFO. I suggest we move to the question from Arnaud Lehmann, Bank of America. Could we move to the question a bit faster, please? Question from Arnaud Lehmann. Is Arnaud on the line or? If not, we have Gregor Kuglitsch from UBS. It seems we have lost the line.
Please, Mr. Arnaud, go ahead.
Yes. Can you hear me? Hello, can you hear me?
Yeah. Let's go ahead.
Yeah.
Excellent. Thank you very much. Good morning, gentlemen. three questions on my side, please. Firstly, could you come back on Northern Europe? Obviously, double digit volume pressure there, as you discussed. However, the margin in percentage is improving, and I was wondering what was the driver behind that. Is that more of a mix effect thanks to the disposal of U.K. distribution, or are you also seeing positive price cost trends in Northern Europe or a combination of both? That's my first question. Secondly, on the buyback, I look at your spending in the first half. That was about half of the spending of the first half of last year, so you were around EUR 350 million of buybacks in the first half this year. Are you slowing down the pace? What's your view on future buybacks?
You know, your valuation is still relatively low. Most of the share price performance this year was driven by earnings revisions rather than necessarily a rerating. Do you see optionality for more buybacks in the future? Lastly, my last question is on France and more specifically, MaPrimeRénov'. As you mentioned, the budget for MaPrimeRénov' will increase, I think to EUR 4 billion. That's like a EUR 1.5 billion increase. What do you see in terms of potential market impact for your business in France? How do customer see that particular stimulus in the context of, as you know, rising interest rates, energy price have come down, maybe the motivation to renovate is a bit lower. Any comments on that would be helpful. Thank you.
Okay. Northern Europe, it's a combination of two things: a very good price cost spread, so nicely positive in Northern Europe. You know, it's positive on all the segments, the price cost, not only of the group and not only quarter by quarter, but on all the segments, because we are very focused on that. A matter of mix also, as you mentioned, with the divestitures of distribution in the U.K. Buybacks, yes, we are committed to do at least EUR 400 million, so we'll do more of what we did in the first half. We'll do more of that in the second half, and to have at least EUR 400 million, if not more, like we did in 2021 and in 2022.
France, MaPrimeRénov', you know, I'm confident that the market reaction will be positive because there is a good demand, there is a good need, plus there are all those parameters that I mentioned regarding the regulation of rental for G and F in France. You know, the deadline is 2025, so if you don't do it in 2024, you have a problem in 2025. We expect, again, a good reaction from the renovation market on those parameters going forward in France, without losing in mind the fact that some of the non-residential,
public schools, et cetera, have also some programs to renovate. Yes, that's a good support for France renovation going forward.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. I think a question from UBS now.
Yes, sir. The next question is from Gregor Kuglitsch of UBS. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning. I've got a couple of questions. I wanted to check one thing. I know you don't split it out exactly, but if I told you, I think you have around, I don't know, EUR 400, EUR 450 of price-cost positive in the first half, roughly. That's my estimate. I don't know whether you could sort of say if I'm in the ballpark there. Consequently, around the similar negative on volumes to sort of get you to a sort of flattish EBIT. Which leads me to the second question, which is, I think you sort of said raw mats essentially will be flat year-over-year in H2. Could you tell us what you think if you were to hold industrial pricing today, what the year-over-year increase would be in the second half? Just assuming it's sort of flat.
Appreciate it could move around a little bit from here. I guess directionally, I think, but maybe you could confirm, there was, I think, a little bit of a sequential erosion in Q2 on an aggregate level, but I think it's pretty modest. If you just could confirm that. I guess what I'm trying to get to is to sort of size a little bit what the potential price cost could be in the second half, in the context of the sort of EUR 400, EUR 450 of the first half. Thank you.
Sreedhar?
On price cost spread, we are not going to be very precise. I think your calculation is always, you know, very closer to the reality. I'm not going to comment more on that. Coming to the price increase, you know, we should see a bit more than 4% price increase effect for the full year. We just have to keep in mind that, you know, H2 comparison basis would be much harder, and that's a fact. I think it will be more, little bit more than 4% for the year.
That's full year, not half, two?
Yeah, full year.
Thank you.
Thank you. I think next question is from Citi. If we can move to Citi, 'cause we have a, still a long list of questions on the line.
Yes, the next question is from Ephrem Ravi of Citi. Please go ahead.
Thank you. In terms of the improved cash flow conversion that you're confident that you're going to go ahead with, over the last 2-3 years, most of it has come from improved working capital. There's only so much you can pull in terms of that lever. You know, in terms of other levers of improved cash conversion, like tax optimization, and again, prepayments from suppliers, et cetera, you know, which are the big focus areas for you, in terms of keeping that 50% cash conversion going?
One comment. We have done a very good job, Sreedhar mentioned it already, on the CapEx, to make sure that our maintenance CapEx. Maybe you keep in mind that during the Capital Markets Day, we outlined for you what would be the CapEx ratio to sales for Saint-Gobain, and we are there. We have done it in three years, we are there. It helps also the cash conversion.
There are plenty of other initiatives. One is, you know, trying to look at the working capital more deeper to see what are the, you know, the receivables which are overdue, why it is overdue. I mean, getting in a very structured manner, country by country, looking at the raw materials, looking at the inventory, the moving, the speed at which it is moving, why it is not moving. You know, there are basic fundamental questions being asked, and it's done in a very structured manner. That's why I remain very confident of delivering consistent cash conversion ratio.
All that being in the incentives of our country COs.
Yeah.
Very clearly. I think the next questions were from Tobias Wagner, if I'm correct. Tobias, the floor is yours.
Benoit, thank you. Sreedhar, two questions from my side, please. number one, just to follow up on the price cost spread. first half, price plus 7.9%. Can you give us an indication? Hello?
Yes, go ahead. Oh, we hear you.
Yeah. You can hear me. Okay. Can you give us an indication what the split is between rollover effect and additional price increases in H1? Within the price cost, I've looked through the report, couldn't find anything. On the EUR 800 million cost inflation you talked about at the last update, is there any sort of further sort of thinking from your side? I mean, gas prices have come down another 36% from Q1 since you last talked about this number, shouldn't that number also start to become a little less pressurizing? The second question is about your European sales exposure. You no longer show that, you show the profit on an annualized basis being about, I think, 39% from Europe.
I'd be interested to know what the sales exposure is now, and more importantly, actually, to get probably from Sreedhar a sense where you think margins are today in the region and where they were at the peak in, in the equivalent businesses. Thank you.
Maybe I'll take the last, and you take the other two, Benoit Bazin. Yes, we did not update precisely the European sales exposure. If I'm correct, we are around 56%-57%. We'll update that, including Canada, on a pro forma basis by the end of the day, but it's slightly above 55%, if I'm correct. We don't put it like that instead of the profit. I think the profit matters. The fact that we have also 1/3, roughly, in each of the big regions, for me, is extremely important. The second point I would mention is we highlighted, because it's a point which is sensitive today, our exposure on new build in Europe, which is 12%. I think that was important to give you that figures.
Our exposure on the negative is 12% on new build residential in Europe.
In terms of pricing, sequentially, when you look at Q3, I mean, Q2 and Q1, we should actually see a pricing is flat. It's important to keep in mind that we have a comparison basis of four points tougher. If you take the price, you need to, you know, take the price in a more longer period of time, because we did the consecutive price increase last year, so that has an impact on it. As far as the pricing is concerned, it continues to remain in a good situation. Inflation, we said, Tobias, it's EUR 600 million now instead of EUR 800 million. That's what I had guided before.
Okay. Just following up, Benoit, on your comment about Europe. I mean, I think it is important because we're well below GFC levels still in Europe, and, you know, what I'm trying to get is a sense of where that could sort of improve both on a top and a margin level.
No, it's a very, it's a very important and very good point, Tobias. Thank you to point that, because indeed, you know, I don't expect Sweden to continue to be as bad as it will be in 2023. For me, you know, when I look at Saint-Gobain, we have been again ahead of the curve in terms of seeing that North America will rebound. We are there, U.S. or Canada. We are going to see a strong rebound in Europe, that's for sure. You know, there is a shortage of housing. Of course, we have renovation on one side, and I highlighted all the levers in terms of stimulus, in terms of law, in terms of standards. Renovation, I'm confident it will continue.
At some point there will be a cherry on the cake, but a big cherry, which is the rebound of the new build in Europe, which is needed. If you take Germany, it's one of the slides, there is a lack of 700,000 houses and in Germany. In France, it's well above 500. In all those countries, at some point, today, it's just constrained by the interest rates and the lack of financing from the various banks, but at some point it will ease, and then it will be a positive tailwind on top of what we have already in our hands, be it new build in North America, Asia, emerging markets, be it the renovation trend or the growth on decarbonization of industries, specialty materials that we have, such as construction chemicals or ceramics.
Yes, you are right to say that sometimes in 2024, it will be an upside for Saint-Gobain.
Thank you.
Thank you, Tobias. We go to John with HSBC.
Thank you. Can you hear me?
Yes.
Hello?
Yes, we can hear you. Go ahead.
Yeah, great. Yes, good morning. three, please. First one, could you identify the sequential price rise Q1 versus the exit rate last year? Second question, could you please elaborate on the signs of an upturn you're seeing in North America at the end of the second quarter? Finally, in renovation, which is described as relatively resilient, would it be fair to assume that that's a sort of low double-digit decline year-on-year in the half? Are there any markets where renovation's actually growing or is flat? Thank you.
I will take the third and the second. You, or you want to start?
I mean, sequentially, the price increase is flat. That's the answer, short answer.
Signs in North America, indeed, we had the 10% like for like growth in the second quarter in North America, with a good combination of pricing and volumes. You know, it's across the board. It's not only roofing. We have managed very well our overall roofing dynamic, rebuilding some inventory in Q1 and then benefiting from the strong season in Q2, so we gain market share in roofing in the second quarter and overall for the first half. It's also in siding. I highlighted our gains in the last two, three years. Housing starts have been up strongly in May, slightly down after that in June, but overall, it has stabilized at roughly 1.45 billion housing starts.
Remember that when we bought Continental Building Products, it was at 1.1, and we know that the average which is needed for the population is 1.5. For 10 years, it has been well below, roughly $1 billion. That's why there is a shortage of at least 4 million houses in the U.S., we start to see it in the statistics. We have a good backlog of orders. When you hear the builders, the contractors on the ground, the teams, I was there two weeks ago, the signs are the signs of confidence. It will be bumpy for sure, but it will vary also by region.
It's not a surprise that we expand and we double our capacity of GlasRoc board in Florida because the southeast region of North America is one of the growing and fast growing region in North America. You have all those parameters on the ground, but already some signs in our figures, and not only U.S., but also Canada, not only roofing, but other product lines, like siding, and also some good movements in the statistics and what we hear from the markets and our teams on the ground. On renovation, it varies a lot country by country. Of course, when Sweden is badly affected or Germany, new build is severely down, renovation is a bit down.
In other markets, if I take some parts of France, if I take Spain, if I take Italy, it's up. It varies a lot country by country, and we cannot have an overall picture. Some of the countries in Northern Europe, of course, are more severely impacted on renovation, and therefore it's down, but some others are slightly up. It varies. We have a bit also of renovation in the U.S., a bit more than 50% of our sales are driven by renovation in the U.S., so it varies country by country. Overall, renovation is much more resilient than what we see on new build, and driven also by personal savings versus interest rates, and therefore all the impact of financing rates, et cetera.
No, no. Thank you. That answer are on price. The statement refers to some selective price increases in Q1 and then stabilization in Q2. Were you saying that actually on balance, there was no positive price movement sequentially in Q1 versus exit rate 2022?
No, there were some at the beginning of the year. What Sreedhar said is that it was on balance, not Q2 versus Q1, sequentially, but Q1 versus Q4 of last year, there were some price increase in many, many countries and many product lines. The point of Sreedhar is that we have done it early in the year, so that when the strong season starts, we don't have to deal with that anymore. Secondly.
Again.
Prices were flat in Q2.
Yeah. Okay.
No? Sorry.
Oh, no. Thank you. No, no, that's it.
Thank you.
I think we have two last questions on internet. Why was South Europe margin down despite solid organic sales, while in Northern Europe it was up with a bigger like-for-like? I highlighted that already both regions have done a very good job in terms of price-cost management. Remember that on South Europe, specifically, we compared with a very, very super strong first half of last year. That's one. Second, keep in mind also technically, that we have less working days in Q2, like we have less working days in Q3, but notably in South Europe, the impact of working days has been more significant in Q2, if I'm in the details, versus Northern Europe. That's a comparison basis, but both regions have done very well in terms of price-cost.
On top of that, within Northern Europe, you have the mix of business having divested end of February, our low margin distribution business in the U.K.. It's a technicality. I think the last question from Lansdowne, if I'm correct, impressive to raise a bit margin despite volume down. Thank you. What is the operational leverage on the way up if volumes were to rise? Sreedhar?
No, in the first place, it's impressive because a lot of work has happened, so that should give you the confidence that we will continue to remain focused on protecting the margin across the board. you know, I think, that's the power of this decentralized, empowered organization, where any dynamics which are different from country to country, we are able to respond quickly. That I would put it as, you know, it's actually one of the strengths now of the Saint-Gobain, that we are present in 75 countries. It also gives us that flexibility because the cycle and the changes does not happen in the same time in each and every country. We remain confident, and I think we have talked enough on the guidance and the margin for the second half.
If there are no more questions, again, thank you very much.
One question from Arnaud. Sorry, back to the room.
Yeah. Thank you very much. It's two little questions. Just one, the first one is to evacuate a risk in my mind. We have seen Mr. Le Maire, our Minister of Economy in France, talking about abolishing the intermediate VAT rate of 10% for the RMI related work, for non-energy-related works in France. Could you perhaps just quantify what part of your RMI sales are energy related, energy efficiency related, and is it possible? No. Okay.
Well, it's not easy, but the one point I would say first so far, it's an idea that has been thrown up in the air. Not sure it will. Again, that's to be discussed, and it's not, of course, my task to do it. I'm not sure that, you know, when you raise VAT, you know that sometimes you don't gain as a net tax, you just have a bit more informal sales. I should not say that, but it's, I'm not sure it's extremely strong and powerful in terms of tax impact. Second, to some extent, if I'm a bit selfish, if the VAT is a bit higher on the non-energy efficiency related, well, it will be good for Saint-Gobain, because a good majority of our sales and activity and power is on energy efficiency materials.
I should not see that as a positive. If there is a ripple effect, we should benefit from it, because that's our bread and butter.
Okay.
It's a bit of a double, triple ripple effect, so it's hard to speculate, but I would not count that as a significant effect if, and.
If it's-
... if it's put in.
Implemented. My last question. I was very impressed by your presentation, and thank you to have also updated us on the strategy. You talk a lot about growth in North America, growth in India, growth in Europe related to RMI. You mentioned an impressive 11% growth for the construction chemicals. Do you have enough spare capacity in the group to capture all this growth? I heard Sreedhar about, you know, mentioning that you are relocating the optimization of the maintenance CapEx towards growth CapEx. Is it enough to capture all this growth you foreseen, or will you have to increase your CapEx envelope in the coming years?
VLT, I answered. On growth, you are right. You know, I'm confident about the growth, very confident about the growth trajectory of Saint-Gobain going forward. Carbon neutrality has to go with decarbonization of buildings. Renovation in Europe, 90% of the buildings by 2050, they are there, we have to deal with them, not only residential, but also non-residential, we have all the power to do that, without mentioning all the new ideas on specialty materials for EV, for batteries, that is flying for our High Performance Solutions business. Yes, there is growth, this is why we have done a good job to standardize, squeeze a bit the maintenance CapEx, that we free up some resources for growth CapEx. We are invested on growth.
It's up 15% year-over-year, first half to first half in North America. Not only, we opened a new plasterboard line in Spain, a new plasterboard line by the end of the year in Romania. We debottleneck also. Sometimes you don't need a new line or a new plant, but you can debottleneck and gain 20%, 15% of new spare capacity. All in all, I would say in a high level, in Europe, we have enough capacity. In North America, in Asia, in emerging markets, we built new lines, 20 out of 23. Yes, CapEx going forward, it's going to be around EUR 2 billion this year. It might be slightly up and more than EUR 2 billion next year. We do it strongly with the good management of our CapEx and our different teams.
Yes, I'm confident about growth, and I'm confident that we will continue to invest with growth capacities, notably in those regions. That's what I would say.
I think, you know, just let me add this big shift, cultural shift is when you see slowdown, the difficult market, the message is not that you send across the board, "Everybody needs to cut the CapEx, everybody needs to cut the cost." That's not the message. The message is that everybody needs to constantly look at all the opportunities that they can tap, and at the same time, be vigilant about the different trends they see in their local market. That's why we continue to invest. I think that's a great point. You know, we had 15% more CapEx.
It seems, Arnaud, you had some insight about Saint-Gobain, because two weeks ago, we had our ExCom in the south of France, and it was just about that discussion. It seems you are very well ahead in terms of the strategic thinking of Saint-Gobain, but it was exactly our discussion, how to squeeze a bit more the maintenance CapEx to free up resources. A lot of hands were raised to say, "I have great ideas, I have a lot of growth, so please provide me with some growth CapEx," and we will do it, so it might increase a bit into next year.
I want to stop there. Thank you again very much. I'm confident. We are confident. I'm extremely proud of what the teams of Saint-Gobain have delivered everywhere around the world. I'm very confident about the integration also of the various acquisitions, be it GCP with Chryso, be it Building Products of Canada, Kaycan. All that is moving nicely. You heard from Saint-Gobain. One small example, insulation. We were not there 12 months ago. We bought stone wool business, which was break-even, plus glass wool, and now it's stone wool up 40%, and it's double-digit insulation business in India just in one year. I'm confident about the integration, and I'm confident about all the margin management that has been done, not only at the group level, but also segment by segment, be it in Northern Europe, South Europe, HPS, et cetera.
2023 will be a very good year for Saint-Gobain, and I thank you and wish you a very good summer, because we need a bit of a break to make sure we deliver a strong second half. Thank you, and have a great day.
Thank you.