Thank you. Good evening, everybody. I hope that you have received our press release and that you have already been able to go through the main highlights. Together with Sreedhar, our CFO, we will present our solid third quarter performance. We continue to deliver very well on all the parameters that we control: price, cost, cash, and margin. I'm very happy about the operational performance of our group in the third quarter. Our teams are fully engaged and hands-on to continue on their very good journey, so that 2023 will be another record margin year for Saint-Gobain. Like-for-like sales were stable over the first nine months of 2023, and decreased 3.1% in the third quarter, which is bang in line with the consensus. Prices were stable sequentially in Q3, and we once again achieved a positive price-cost spread.
Volumes remained in line with our expectation of a mid-single-digit decrease for the full year 2023. We continue to outperform our markets, thanks to our strong strategic positioning at the heart of the energy and decarbonization challenges, and our very powerful local organization by country, executing very well on the ground, day in and day out. Our strategic choices are paying off. Today, two-thirds of our profits, two-thirds of the operating profits, are now generated in North America, Asia, emerging countries, and Construction Chemicals. These markets with strong growth outlooks, where we have had decisive and successful capital allocation over the last 5 years. So we are continuing to invest for the future in these attractive markets on additional capacity for CapEx, and also with acquisitions such as Building Products of Canada, which I'm pleased to report we were able to finalize more quickly than expected.
It's in our books since September 1. In Western Europe, over 60% of our sales are in renovation, both public and private buildings, which continues to be more resilient. Additional financing costs are temporarily impacting the new residential market in Western Europe, which represents 12% of our total sales and which is still massively undersupplied in terms of housing. Our local organization allows us to manage the contrasted situation between markets and between geographies, with local teams able to proactively take decisions on the ground to adapt to the local environment with the necessary commercial, industrial, and cost measures. This is what is allowing us to deliver a very solid performance, and we continue to demonstrate Saint-Gobain resilience in a difficult environment, and we are confident to deliver a new record margin in 2023, which will mean a third consecutive year of double-digit margin.
You may have seen already in the press release that we have accelerated our share buybacks over the last few weeks. We have bought back EUR 540 million of our shares as of today, significantly beyond our annual target of EUR 400 million. I now hand over to you, Sreedhar, and Sreedhar will give you additional information about our third quarter sales.
Thank you, Benoit, and good evening, everyone. As Benoit said, Saint-Gobain delivered a solid performance and once again demonstrated its resilience in a difficult market environment, with stable Like-for-Like sales over the first nine months of 2023. While the currency and structural impacts were both negative, the currency impact has accelerated significantly in Q3. Both items need to be kept in mind for Q4. The organic growth was -3.1% in Q3. Prices were up 1.9%, stable sequentially since the start of the year in an environment which becomes now less inflationary. This enabled us once again to achieve a positive Price-Cost Spread in this quarter. It is also important to remember that we have a higher basis for pricing comparison, given the price increases we successfully achieved in a proactive manner in the last few years, quarter after quarter.
We have once again delivered a price cost spread positive even in Q3. Given the strong focus on price cost spread of each and every country CEO, we remain confident in our ability to deliver a positive price cost spread in Q4 and also for the full year. Volumes were down 5% for the quarter, in line with our expectation of a mid-single digit decrease for the full year 2023. This moderate slowdown in market continues to reflect a contrasting situation, a marked decline in new construction... but good resilience overall in renovation market. Note that we had a negative working day impact in Q3 of around -2%. Now, let us look at the reporting, the numbers by reporting segment. Overall, in Europe, we continue to see resilient renovation markets for both private and public buildings, despite the slowdown in new construction.
Order books in renovation continue to be strong, with stringent regulations and larger subsidies, for example, in France. Starting with Northern Europe, where after several quarters of sharp volume decreases, Q3 saw a smaller decrease than Q2 against a less difficult comparison basis, and despite the less working days. Prices were managed well locally by the country CEOs on a much higher comparison basis and in a less inflationary environment. Nordic countries saw the sharp drop in new construction markets in Sweden and Norway, partly offset by a strong exposure to the renovation market. Turning to the UK, the market remains challenging, but with the local management's focus on driving more solutions in the UK market, we continue to gain market share in facade and interior solutions. Germany continued to suffer in a difficult macroeconomic environment, which hit the new construction market.
Eastern Europe improved slightly in the third quarter after the sharp volume drop of around 15% in the first half. Coming to the Southern Europe, sales grew 1% over the first nine months, thanks to good resilience in renovation once again, where the new construction market continued to slow down. The prices were managed well locally by country CEOs on a much higher comparison basis and in a less inflationary environment. In France, we continue to outperform, thanks to our strong position in the B2B renovation market.
The French government announced in October that the budget allocated to the renovation subsidy program, MaPrimeRénov', will double next year, taking it to EUR 5 billion in 2024, and it has also increased its target for the number of global renovations to 200,000 per year from 2024, which means 3 times the number we had in 2022. This is indeed an excellent news. You know that Saint-Gobain is the reference in energy-efficient renovation in France, and we will benefit significantly and also further strengthen our market position in energy-efficient renovation market. In Spain and Italy, sales were stable in generally resilient construction markets. In the Middle East and Africa, we achieved strong growth, especially in Egypt and Turkey, which are the two biggest countries in this geographic area, in addition to South Africa.
In the Americas, the growth of 2.2% over the first nine months was supported by the increase in North American volumes. In North America, we continue to see volume growth with +3% in Q3. The smaller price effect was due to the high comparison basis, but prices rose sequentially, thanks to the price increase in roofing this summer. We achieved further market share gains, leveraging our exterior and interior solutions for the light construction market. Some of you have witnessed our comprehensive solution offer during your visit in mid-September. The integrations of our recent acquisitions in North America are progressing very well, and we are achieving the expected synergies. Building Products of Canada was consolidated more quickly than expected from the start of September, allowing us to reinforce our unique industry-leading position in Canada.
We are excited about the significant growth potential in the North American market, and in addition to these acquisitions, we are investing as we speak in additional capacity in roofing and plasterboard. Lastly, I'm pleased to report that we have signed the third power price agreement in North America for the renewable energy. With this, we will now be able to cover 70% of our North American electricity needs with renewable energy by the end of 2024. Coming to Latin America, we suffered from the macroeconomic environment, particularly in Brazil. However, the August interest rate cut, inflation coming under control, and the large construction sector component included in stimulus plan point to an improvement from the end of the year.... Mexico continued to benefit from the good integration of impact in construction chemicals, which has enabled us to enrich our offer to the Mexican market.
Other countries in the region continue to be supported by sales prices and enhanced mix and target acquisitions to enhance the range of solutions that we offer country by country. Coming to Asia Pacific region, we saw 5.1% growth over the first nine months, and we continue to see a very good momentum in Q3, with 6.5% volume growth, while prices were impacted by a high comparison basis. India achieved another strong performance with market share gains, thanks to our innovative solutions approach, our targeted investment for growth, with recent acquisitions in insulation, in particular, and new capacities that we added are helping us. We are a pioneer in low-carbon building in India, with our solutions widely used in the country. China delivered good growth despite a more difficult market, due to the market share gains in the light construction and renovation markets.
Southeast Asia was stable on a high comparison basis. In Malaysia, we benefited from an enriched range of solutions, helping to strengthen our presence on the light construction market. Now let us look at our global customer markets. High-Performance Solutions saw organic growth of 3.5% over the first nine months, with Q3 turning slightly negative due to the decrease in construction industry, which is exposed to the new construction market in Europe, a higher comparison basis in mobility, and more mixed industrial market performance. Our construction chemical business showed a strong reported growth, mainly linked to the integration of GCP. Chryso and GCP continue to show good sales trends, driven by the innovative solutions to decarbonize the construction industry. Chryso grew double-digit in Q3, and GCP's margin improved sharply in line with our integration plan.
This was driven by efficiencies from the new organization and the benefits of global supply chain and industrial optimization was implemented in a very quick manner. We continue to make targeted investments. For example, the recently signed acquisition of Adfill in fibers for the concrete reinforcement that contribute to the reduction of its carbon footprint. Our mobility sales growth of 15% over the first nine months was driven by the continued catch-up in the sales prices and our outperformance of our auto market, linked to our strong technological positioning on electric vehicles. Sales growth in the Americas and Asia remained good. In Europe, we saw growth impacted by the higher comparison basis, given the sharp rebound in European auto markets from Q3 of last year.
Our businesses serving industrial markets held firm in a very weak industrial market, especially in Europe, thanks to sales prices and the need for our high-end materials and technologies to help our customers decarbonate their manufacturing processes. To sum up, you have seen we have once again demonstrated the resilience of Saint-Gobain, even in a difficult underlying market, and we are very confident to deliver a new record operating margin in 2023. We continue to achieve market share gains in many countries, and we continue to deliver a positive price cost spread, and we remain confident to do so, including in 2024. Our cash performance remains very strong, which actually reflects on our ingrained cash culture throughout the organization.
We will continue to proactively do everything that is under our control in order to deliver strong performance, both in terms of margin and cash, including in 2024. Now, I pass on the floor to Benoit for the concluding remarks.
Thank you, Sreedhar. So a few comments to conclude. As I said in my introduction, I'm very proud of what our teams have achieved in terms of operational results and performance in Q3. This has allowed us to deliver another solid performance in a difficult market and macro environment, demonstrating once again the group resilience. North America, Asia, and Construction Chemicals are showing good growth momentum. We expect renovation in Europe to remain strong going forward with the doubling of MaPrimeRénov' in France and the target to triple the number of global renovations in 2024. Regarding new construction, we believe we are not too far from the trough in Europe. Overall, we are well on track to once again deliver on our commitments in 2023 for cash, for return on capital employed, and to achieve a new record operating margin.
Looking forward, all our teams, I can tell you, are fully engaged to use all the levers in our control to outperform and make intelligent trade-offs, investment for growth, proactive cost rationalization, and footprint, footprint optimization wherever necessary. I know that all your eyes are now turning more and more towards 2024. Of course, we'll talk about it in February, but let me tell you that I'm confident Saint-Gobain will deliver another successful year in 2024. So thank you for your attention, and Sridhar and I are now happy to answer any question.
This is the conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press Star and One on their telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press Star and Two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. The first question is from Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq of CIC. Please go ahead.
Bonsoir. Good evening. I have three specific questions, if you don't mind. The first one is what you told us regarding the 2023 outlook, new record operating margin, expecting double-digit for the third consecutive year. It is for the full year. You don't deliver any comments for the second half, isn't it? Secondly, the traditional question on the pricing of flat glass. Last question, in Northern, specifically in Northern and also in Southern Europe, could we have maybe the share of the distribution, around, so share of building distribution in Northern Europe and in Southern Europe, in percentage, more or less, in the turnover? Many thanks. Merci beaucoup.
Thank you, Jean-Christophe. I will let Sreedhar answer the number 2 and number 3. You know, we give you a very strong margin for the full year, and as I said, we are very confident to deliver a new record margin for the third consecutive year, double-digit margin for the third consecutive year, and a record margin in 2023 above the one of 2021, and of course, the one of 2022. That gives you confidence that we'll deliver on all our commitments, as we have done over the last five years. We don't want to, you know, micromanage the guidance quarter by quarter. So I don't see how delivering on the new record margin for the year is anything different from what you say and what you ask in terms of, in terms of questions.
So I'm very confident that, we will have a record margin in 2023, and it will be a very successful year for Saint-Gobain, beating the 2021, beating the 2022, margin. So also, we'll talk about the margin of 2024 in due time, but as I said, you know, I'm confident it will be a solid year for Saint-Gobain in 2024. So record margin in 2023, I think it gives you a lot of color, a lot of flavor, to know exactly what we mean, and we are confident about what we will deliver on the margin. And I prefer to stay on a full year margin, because this is what matters. For me, it's extremely important that for three years in a row, we deliver year after year, a record margin, improving year after year, and this is what we'll do in 2023.
You don't need me to be more specific quarter by quarter. I think it's clear enough on what, what we mean. Sreedhar?
Jean, Jean-Christophe, the glass, the glass price of 4 mm was EUR 4.7 for the Q3.
Okay.
The last question is on the distribution. I mean, Jean-Christophe, you know, we don't run the business like that. The way we operate is by country, and we had given the overall distribution figures for the group, which was 30%. So that's, that's, that number continues to be valid.
30%? Okay.
Yeah, yeah.
But for the country, for the 30% of the EUR 50 billion turnover?
Yeah.
Okay. Okay, thanks.
The next question is from Arnaud Lehmann of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Good evening, gentlemen. I have two questions. Firstly, on pricing, about 2% in Q3, and in particular in the Americas, it's now stable, and in Asia, I think it's down 3.5%. Is it all related to base effect? Anything to mention there? And specifically for Asia, is there a softer pricing effect here, any relevant at all? And secondly, on the share buybacks, as you mentioned, you accelerated, and clearly you have space to do more on a slightly more structural basis. Do you think there is space for you to give a bit more guidance on share buyback? Thank you very much.
Thank you, Arnaud. I'll take the second one, and Sridhar will come back to the first one. You know, the share buyback, what is very important for us is to look at overall value creation and capital allocation. As you know, we have three balanced legs. The CapEx will be around EUR 2 billion of CapEx this year, accelerating on the growth CapEx, because we have growth prospects going forward and growth in volumes in many geographies as we speak. Second, M&A, we have proven to create massive value if you think of Continental, CHRYSO, et cetera. Third, as you point out, the share buyback. We want to keep the balance of those three legs because we are convinced this is the best way to deliver value for our shareholders mid to long term.
You remember that two years ago, in October 2021, we announced a EUR 2 billion buyback over five years. We have done EUR 1 billion over the first two years. Instead of the EUR 400 million, which would have been the average of the five years, in 2023, we are already at EUR 540 million end of October, as of, as of today. So that means we are also taking a pragmatic, approach, opportunistic approach on, on the buyback. So we will, complete, of course, and continue to add on buybacks for the rest of 2023, and do that in 2024, and then we will, figure out. So we will keep this balance between the three legs.
First, I want to finish the EUR 2 billion buyback program, between 2023 and 2024, and before 2025, which is the end of the program, but we may be a bit ahead of the timing.
So, Arnaud, coming on your question on pricing, you know, this 2%, yes, the comparison basis was tougher, and that was the main reason, where you will see that segment by segment. But coming to Asia particularly, in addition to the comparison basis, which was tough, but we also made certain conscious decision to focus on market share. It's a market, you know, especially in a deflationary environment, and more so that we have a good price cost spread situation. Keeping the trend of deflationary and the price cost spread situation, we have made certain conscious decision in some of the market, particularly where the price sensitivity was there. Otherwise, globally, the pricing is in good shape. There is a good discipline.
Sequentially, we continue to remain stable, and that's why I remain very confident of getting, delivering the price-cost spread, not only in Q3, but also in Q4. So, I also said that I think this is now the way, country by country, the focus is there on the price-cost spread by the country CEO. It gives me a lot of confidence that we should continue to deliver the pricing power even in 2024.
And maybe one additional flavor on North America. You know, we are in positive volumes, and we have been there over the last 2 quarters. If I take roofing, we are about to announce price increase for early next year in roofing. So, you know, the storms activity that we have seen over the last quarters will continue well into first half of 2024. And overall, most of our plants, depending on the geographies, and we have visited one in the Northeast mid-September, but most of our plants are still pretty much on allocation. So, there is a good momentum going forward on some pricing actions for North America into 2024.
The one we announced in August has gone through.
Yep.
That's very helpful. Thank you very much.
The next question is from Elodie Rall of J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi, good evening. Thanks for taking my questions. So I'll limit to two. First of all, on H2 margin, so you reiterated double-digit for the year, but I've noticed that you dropped the 9%-11% previous guidance range for H2. So if you could let us know why is that, and if that means that we should expect double-digit margin for H2 as well? And my second question is on volumes. If you run through the major regions, where would you say you're seeing signs of volume drops easing, and where would you say you're seeing positive volumes growth from here into 2024? And if I can push it, if you could comment on renovation specifically. This has been resilient, but everyone is worried that given the consumer backdrop, it's gonna get worse.
So that would be helpful. Thank you.
Okay, very good. I think your first question is quite similar to the one from Jean-Christophe earlier on. Yes, indeed, we dropped the 9-11 because we think it's much more powerful to tell you that we will have a record margin for the full year. We are very confident to deliver that. Of course, it will be another year of double digit, but a record above and beyond the one from last year, 2022, which was above 2021. Again, without micromanaging each and every one of you, I don't see how delivering a new record margin for the full year is anything different from the question you ask.
I cannot be more precise, but I think I've been quite clear, and I'm confident that I'm extremely happy that even in a more difficult challenging environment, you know, we delivered very well against the COVID, very, very well against the supply chain disruption, the war in Ukraine, inflation, all this, and again, even against negative volumes—mid-single digit in 2023, we will deliver record margin above the last, the last two years. So I think we are very clear and very precise on what we, we mean that and there, and, and very confident about what how the group is performing in Q3, and confident that it will continue in Q4, and therefore, for the, for the second half. Regarding, regarding volumes, should I mention it in his comments?
You know, if you take, for instance, Eastern Europe, Eastern Europe, the volumes, although still negative, are a bit better than overall Eastern Europe than in Q2. So that's, that's something, I think in some of the Northern Europe countries, we are not far, not too far from the, from the trough. Again, if I stay on the countries which have been quite, quite challenging. South Europe, if I take Spain, Italy, it didn't move much. So I think those countries, maybe we are getting more share than elsewhere, but, it's quite, quite solid. France, on new build, could continue to worsen a bit for a few, for a few quarters. But again, I, I don't think we are very far from the, from the trough.
As you have heard, if I go outside of Europe, of course, Middle East, Africa, we continue to be on the positive side, same in Asia, and we are already there. The good news is that we start to see some early signs that Brazil, which is an important country for us, will improve into 2024 on several fronts. So that's, we had some early signs in the last few weeks, few months, but that's positive. North America, again, we turn into positive volume already in Q2, and following that in Q3. Even if you look at the new build in housing starts, we are at 1.35, 1.4, with one month up, one month down.
We have been a bit more optimistic than the markets, the financial markets in the beginning of the year on North America. We are confident that the performance of our team, so I think that should resist quite well for next year. I think the mindset around the interest rates and what the homebuilders are doing to ease the purchase of homes has been quite powerful in North America. That's quite sensitive. On renovation, you know, for me, a very good sign, and we should not underestimate that, is the fact that there is a strong support from, if I take France, which is an important country for us, doubling the support of renovation subsidies is meaningful.
Making it easy also for the households which have less purchasing power, i.e. the ones which were, who were a bit excluded from those activities in recent past. So for me, that's, that's significant. Don't forget also that public buildings are moving into the right, into the right space. So, for me, the, the renovation is there. Sometimes you see and you read some debates, country by country, but I can tell you the mindset of households, the fact that energy is expensive and you need to save energy by having the right renovation, I think all this is there to stay. So in every country of Europe, you have this minimum energy efficiency rationale. Keep in mind that we are not in do it yourself. We are in hot stuff of must-have renovation, be it energy or be it roofing renovation in the U.S.
So I think on the renovation, we are quite confident that we are with a large offer, gaining share, and that is something which will be a good support in 2024.
And the order book continues to remain very good, Elodie?
For the craftsmen, yeah.
Particularly for the craftsmen.
Thanks. So if I summarize, do you think we could hope for 2024 volumes to actually be stable or slightly up?
It's too early, Elodie. Like on the overall guidance for 2024, it's of course too early to say, and we'll take it one by one. Again, we are extremely happy, but how we deliver in 2023, it will be another record year for Saint-Gobain, so that's great. And I think it proves that the resilience, the momentum, the dynamic, the engagement of the teams is absolutely there. 2024, we'll talk about it, but I can tell you that I'm confident that it will be a year of success for Saint-Gobain. I'm confident that the teams are very focused on the priorities, and sometimes it's growth investment. If we think of North America, sometimes it's making sure that on cost, on headcount, on industrial footprint, we are delivering exactly what we need when it's negative volumes in Europe.
So all teams are hands-on on deck to make sure that we have solid actions with a small set of priorities. They are must-win battle to deliver a strong performance in 2024 on everything we control. There are things which sometimes are out of control, the geopolitics, et cetera, et cetera, but everything we control, it's our duty and it's our commitment to continue to deliver well, like we have done for the last nine semesters.
The next question is from Yassine Touahri of On Field. Please go ahead.
Yes, good evening. I would have a couple of questions. First, you're discussing about the new residential construction potentially being close to a trough. Can you comment about the new non-residential construction? I think we see some indicator in the US, I think the architectural bidding index getting a little bit weak. The business confidence in Europe is a little bit weak. Do you feel, when you're discussing with your team, when you're discussing with your clients, do you feel that there is a risk of a further deterioration in the coming quarter in a new non-residential construction? And also, I think you gave us the number of your exposure to residential construction at 12% of the group.
Do you have this number for new non-residential construction? And then the second question on energy. So we start to see with the geo, the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, energy prices picking up a little bit or at least being volatile. Have you started to hedge your gas and electricity and fuel costs for next year? And if so, if you can give us a bit more color about the way you're thinking about it.
Yeah, so two questions for Sreedhar.
Yeah. So, you know, coming to non-residential, you know, we have to split this non-residential into two parts. One is if you're talking of some offices and offices, yes, there is negative news, where you see that particularly in the US. But when you look at industrial investment, which is happening in a big way, the industry is growing. You also see that the general other hospitals and schools investments are happening. And then this is very true even in Europe, where you see that clearly this is an area where the state can intervene, because clearly they have identified this as one region, one area where they need to improve the overall efficiency, energy efficiency.
Sangama, you know, that we have a very nicely carved out the full solution for each of the segments. If it's in hospital, we have a full range of solutions. Similarly, for the schools and universities, with a very good use case and data point, I think we are positioning ourselves to clearly leverage our organization, new structure to grow further in this market. That your question was non-residential, where is for the full overall for group, it is 15%, and the new residential, you already said it's 12%.
Residential Europe-
Yeah.
is 12, and total new residential is 22%.
Yeah, 22%. And for our non-residential, it's 15% for the full group.
The second on the energy, Sreedhar?
On the-
I can, I can take it. Your question was on the 2024. Yes, we have started to hedge.
Yeah.
As you can understand, it's a sensitive commercial information, so we will keep it for us, because it's something which is sensitive in the eyes of our competitors, in terms of how you price, depending on your cost. But of course, like we have done in recent years, we started to hedge, and we are always proactive on those measures.
I just want to tell you that, when you look at some of the statistics, the stock of the gas, which used to be last year before we entering into the winter, clearly we are in a much, much better situation. I mean, we are close to 100% stock, which was not the case last year. You would also see that after the crisis which we had in Ukraine war, the number of alternate source is also significantly built. So I think there are a lot of good things have happened over a period of time, and we continue to monitor this very closely.
Thank you very much.
The next question is from Yves Bromehead of Société Générale. Please go ahead.
Good evening, and thank you for taking my question. Maybe one question on 2024. Benoît, you mentioned that you expected another year of success. Can you define what you mean by success? Are we talking about earnings growth, about margin progression? What do you exactly mean by another year of success? And, my second question is just, going to the underlying pricing by region. I understand that the U.S. is improving sequentially, thanks to the roofing, et cetera. High-performance solution also was quite strong. But when I look at Europe, it seems that we are starting to see for the second quarter, some signs of erosion.
So when I put this in the context, maybe of your distribution margin, can you help us maybe clarify whether there is a situation here, especially after some of the UK distributors, and I know you exited the market, have profit warned? So just want to understand the outlook for, especially for distributor margin, in Europe in this context. Thank you very much.
Yves, like I answered to Elodie, we'll talk about 2024 in late February when we publish our 2023 results, and we give you the guidance and the perspectives for 2024. But I can tell you, I'm confident about all what the teams are delivering, be it on the growth initiatives, be it on the acquisitions. When I see how well we integrate GCP, CHRYSO, you know, having double digits like-for-like growth of CHRYSO in the third quarter, be it the construction chemicals worldwide at more than 3% organic growth in the ninth month of 2023, all this is, I think, gaining share in construction chemicals segment. So all those parameters, I think will be also part of the success and the support for 2024.
So it's a lot of parameters, be it financial, strategic, team, engagement, and further strategic moves that will continue to deliver in 2024. On the pricing, you know, specifically by region, what is important for us, as you know, is that when we deliver a strong double-digit for the margin for the group, it means 13% and above for our manufacturing businesses, and it means 6%-7% for our distribution margin, and we are there. So I see good resilience, good performance. Why? Because we are very strong in those geographies, Nordics and France. We are setting the tone, as Sharad said in his comment, we are setting the tone on renovation in France, same in the Nordics....
So that helps, of course, delivering and continue to deliver, even in more challenging environments, a very good margin, bang in line with our expectations for those assets in the Nordics or in France. And yes, we are happy that, you know, timing is of the essence, is of everything for acquisitions and divestitures. We are happy that we sold in due time and with the right multiples and EV, our recent business in February or March of this year.
You know, I think the most important indicator that we look at every single business is the price-cost spread, and I'm confirming to you that every single segment, including Europe, which you mentioned, Yves, that we have a positive price-cost spread.
Thank you very much.
The next question is from Cedar Ekblom of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much. Hi, gentlemen. I'm not gonna ask you about what you think your volumes will be in 2024, because I understand that it's too early and you don't have visibility. What I would like to understand is what level of volume growth you think you need in order to deliver neutral or positive operating leverage in the context of the fixed cost inflation that we have. You talk a lot about price cost spread being positive, but clearly, that's price variable cost. At the end of the day, we're in a negative volume environment with inflation in some buckets, like labor.
I'd just like to understand, you know, not your guidance on 2024, I get why you're not commenting on that, but could you give us some sort of understanding of what you think that volume number needs to be before we need to start thinking about more drastic cost-cutting measures? Thank you.
Yes. So Cedar, you know, if you go back to the leverage, we have always said that we should see 25%-30% leverage in the volume. And when you look at the current year, especially when we're talking of delivering one year of another new record margin, that also reflects that our ability to offset not just the variable cost inflation, but also the fixed cost inflation. We have two things to keep in mind. One is the structural WCM, the World-Class Manufacturing program, where it is run in a very systematic manner in every single plant, which enables us to offset many of these fixed cost increases, mainly through the productivity improvement, and that's something which we have been able to successfully do.
Second thing is, you need to remember that when you look at the total fixed cost, we have something like EUR 16 billion. One third of this fixed cost is actually semi-variable. I think this semi-variable gives us a lot of leeway, and that's one clear area where we have been able to identify country by country, especially when we anticipated a slowdown. It's as early as June 2022, you know, Benoit addressed the top 150 leaders, talking about country by country, looking at where are the indications and anticipate and start looking at all these semi-variable costs and address those costs. So that's how we have been able to, in spite of the fact that we have a low volume in this year, we have been able to continuously deliver a good margin.
So there are plenty of things we do, and, you know, when it comes to cost, the simplest thing is, when you in a distribution business, when you stop replacing the people, the attrition level, which is normally reasonably higher than what you see in the industrial businesses, that itself brings down the cost structure in a very mechanical manner. We do a lot of discretionary cost actions, and that's another way of managing the margin. So it's not as simple, you know, mechanical, where you just put the numbers, you will see a volume, this is the kind of number we need to get. So, you know, there are plenty of levers.
I'm sorry, I'm not giving you a very precise number and answer, but there are plenty of things we can do to protect the margin and deliver the margin in a consistent manner.
That, that's helpful. Can I just ask, what is a semi-variable cost? Is that like blue-collar workers? I'm just a bit confused.
It is blue-collar. It could be also the fixed costs, which are linked to the certain volume of operations that you run in a given plant.
Overall, what is important, Cedar, is that we have, since indeed June 2022, when some countries turned into slightly negative volumes, all the teams were necessary. It's not a one-size-fits-all type of action, but they have been very careful and very cautious on, on cost. And in terms of headcount reduction, be it in Brazil, for instance, be it in France, be it in the Nordic countries, we have taken a lot of actions in terms of cost-cutting over the last 12 months and preparing also, you know, for, for next year. So a lot of things have been done on SG&A, a lot of things have been done sometimes on furlough, on shift reduction, plant by plant, and et cetera, et cetera. So we have a lot of actions on the ground to secure and protect the PNL for, for next year.
You know, shift reduction could be a very good example of semi-variable, Cedar, where, you know, if the volume comes down to a certain level, you actually can reduce the number of shifts, and then you reduce the cost immediately.
Okay. You said fixed-- Sorry, I know I'm going on this point, but I think this is really important just to understand what operating leverage flexibility you have in the business, because we are in a negative volume environment. When you say it's fixed costs associated with production, so fine, blue collar workers. Are we also thinking about things like maintenance and maybe contractors, or would the-- I mean, maintenance-
Yes.
Okay.
Yes, Cedar. Yes.
Okay. Okay.
You, you have all, all types of actions. You know, sometimes you have temporary workers, you just cut them. You have some maintenance costs that you can reduce. You have all the discretionary expense. You have the things we have worked on, on a higher level, for instance, the travel expenses within Saint-Gobain; they are still at half of what it used to be in 2019, for cost reasons, also for CO2 reasons. I think it's both in impact. So there are many, many actions where we have been diligent and vigilant over the last 12 months, and we'll continue to do so.
Great. Thank you.
The next question is from Gregor Kuglitsch of UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi, good evening. Thanks for taking my question. The first one, if you could just help us, I think you flagged in your, in your introductory remarks, sort of, there are some things in mind for Q4 around FX, M&A, and maybe pricing. If you could just give us anything you care to steer us on, for the final quarter, perhaps, let's say, assuming a stable sequential price, for instance, what that means, and sort of the technicals around some of the other bits, that would be helpful. And the second question is, I don't know if you've actually commented on the updated raw material and energy bill inflation. I think you usually give an update. Maybe I missed it, but, if you could give us an update there, and I suppose directionally, what way that's heading?
Okay. Technical effects, you should see the Forex should be much more negative in H2 than H1. I mean, you have seen the numbers. H1, we were at -1.4%, and Q3 was -3.9%. You should expect the Forex should be negative in the fourth quarter, too. This would have a little more impact in terms of operating margin, because, you know, many of these things coming from businesses like Americas, which are profitable. In terms of scope, again, you should see second half should be much more negative than H1. You had in H1 -2.3%, and in Q3, it is -3.5%.
You should see a higher, higher scope, even though, you know, we would see that Gypsum full impact, in which was, which was there. GCP was already included in last year's Q4 2022. However, we have also, we will have the benefit of Building Products of Canada, which would be, which would see the full quarter benefit because we consolidated only in September. Third question is on price. You know, sequentially, you know, with the pa- comparison basis should continue to be there, and you should see, you know, the sequential pricing. You would see that. You should see a slightly positive price for the Q4. Then your question on raw material, inflation.
Basically, what, you know, in a volatile situation today, I'm not going to be- I'm not going to give you a very precise number. We had given you EUR 600 million inflation. It should probably be, um-
For this year.
For this year, for the full year, and it should probably be lower than that EUR 600 million, because we continue to see inflation in certain minerals like gypsum, soda ash, soda, you know, the cullets, the sand. There are still many things which still reflecting the inflation. So, I think what is more important is we should be able to continuously manage this price-cost spread in a very, in a very close manner in every single country.
Thank you.
The next question is from Tobias Woerner of Stifel Europe. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good afternoon, Saint-Gobain team. Three questions from me quickly, and one to follow up from Gregor on the inflationary, or the inflation number, the EUR 600 million. Can you just remind us how that has fallen this year, will have fallen this year in terms of first half and second half, i.e., is the first half EUR 400 million, second half EUR 200 million? Just to get a sense, for how this could continue to flow. The second question, on the HBS side, the volumes were slightly worse than what I was assuming. You'd refer also to Europe exiting the quarter more slowly. What is going on, on the industrial side from your perspective?
Just lastly, you've delivered nicely on your acquisitions, but you've given us targets as and when you made the acquisitions. Could you just sort of one by one tell us where you're ahead and where you're behind your targets, which you set out at the time? Thank you.
Thank you, Tobias. I'll take number three, number two, and sort of number one. On the targets, if I take them one by one, of course, Continental Building Products, you know that we created value on year two, so it's super strong. On CHRYSO, we are delivering very well because we were ahead for the full year 2022 of the first year of the plan, because we consolidated in October 2021. So far this year, it's delivering very well because we have a very solid organic growth within CHRYSO and a good momentum overall in terms of performance. GCP also, I'm happy about that, is delivering well. We highlighted at the beginning of the year, $170 million EBITDA for GCP on the full year basis.
We will be there, but we will update all this in due time, in February. Specifically on Construction Chemical, I hope you will be able to make it for our visit in France on November thirteenth and fourteenth, because Thierry Bernard, the former CEO of CHRYSO, who is managing all this and beyond, because the Matchem, the Adfil, and others, he's managing all that, but again, delivering well ahead of plan on CHRYSO and bang in line in terms of EBITDA for GCP, even if, as you know, GCP is more of a turnaround, so we started from a slightly weaker basis. Kaycan is developing well. On siding, I can tell you that we gain share on siding, notably because we have, but again, we will, we'll update all this with precise figures in February.
But we gain much more on the purchasing of PVC in siding. So I'm happy that, you know, we have growth in siding in 2023. And in terms of margin and profit momentum, thanks notably to purchasing, we gain faster than what we had in mind and what was the target at the time of the Kaycan acquisition. Building Products of Canada, it's too early to say because it's just the first month. I can only say that the teams are eager to join us and happy to do that, but it's, of course, too early to say, and we'll update you in February. So on all those acquisitions, we are, if not ahead or creating value, like year two and ahead, like CHRYSO, but we are bang in line and extremely happy about the momentum.
After that, you have all the small ones, like insulation in India, you know, it's a business which is already making double-digit margin in 18 months, even though it was a low single digit year before, but that's a bit Indian magic of our teams. On your second question, back to HPS volumes, you know, we have a recovery, as expected, in automotive. Keep in mind that on mobility, we compare with a strong third quarter of last year, so we continue to have a good, solid dynamic in North America, in Asia, on mobility. It's a bit weaker in Europe, also, because the comparison basis is much higher from last year, and we expect that to plateau at some point in Europe, just on mobility. As I said, Construction Chemical is delivering very well on the organic growth.
The one business which is suffering quite heavily is what we call construction industry, Adfors . It's all the Glas Grid for the reinforcement of external facades, notably in Eastern Europe, notably in Central Europe. That's where the hit on new build, be it in Germany, be it in the Nordic countries, is quite severe. It will not last forever. It's a great business, but it's quite significant in terms of volume dynamic being down. Then on some of the other businesses related to industrial applications and some CapEx of our customers related to decarbonization, some projects have been a bit delayed. If I think of the Ceramics, they are not canceled, but they have been postponed and delayed, and that's why we had some negative volumes in the third quarter on some of those industrial applications.
I think it's more short term than anything structural, for sure, but typically on the third quarter, we had some negative volume on those industrial businesses.
Your question, Tobias, on EUR 600 million inflation, you know, the large part of the inflation should be in H1. Again, as I mentioned, we still continue to see the inflation and, you know, still see the volatility, even though I believe that we should have less than EUR 600 million, we just have to wait and see. I, but my gut at this point of time is the large part should be in H1.
Mm-hmm. Okay. So, my 400, 200 would be large part in that context? Sorry, two.
I don't want... You know, it, I think it, it can be more than EUR 400 million in the first half, Tobias, you know, I, I would say, but again, I don't wanna, I don't wanna conclude because the year is not yet over, because otherwise, I would have been very precise with my number, you know? It gives you a ballpark figure of where we are landing. I think you should see much lesser inflation impact in the second half than in the first half.
Thank you so much.
The next question is from George Peak of BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for taking my question. So just another one on pricing. When I look at production levels in industries like plasterboard, insulation, glass, primarily in Europe, we're now down 15%-20% off the highs. So against that backdrop, are you seeing competitors continue to be rational?
Well, first, I respectfully disagree with your assumptions on the volumes, because it's not what we are seeing, on those, different product lines, country by country in Europe. Of course, you know, in North America, we are growing, so this is not what we are seeing in terms of overall, market environment. The pricing is strong. Overall, the pricing is strong. You know, when we say secondarily stable across the group, of course, it's also, and I think Screedher answered already in Europe, it is stable in Europe. After that, you had some up in North America, down in Asia. We clarified that a bit earlier in the call, but it is stable in Europe. In some areas we had some, even increase in, in Europe.
In some areas we had to adjust slightly, but it's the fine-tuning in terms of market share, PNL optimization that our country CEOs deliver on the ground, and they are in charge of that, and they do it extremely well because they have the ability across the full set of product lines. You are in charge of Germany. You can be a bit more challenging on gypsum, but then you can recover up the margin. It's exactly what we did in 2022 on glass wool or on glass. So they have the ability to deliver the margin for the country, playing on the different product lines. So we are happy about the pricing overall discipline from our teams. And frankly, you know, the rationale behind that is that first, you are still high on energy, raw materials versus three, four years ago.
So the rationale for all the players is there. And second, when we have negative volumes in Europe, it's not on renovation, it's on new build. And new build, the issue is not the cost of materials, the issue is the cost of financing because of the higher interest rates that has cut the purchasing power of the different households to go buy a new home. So it's not by dropping the price of plasterboard in Germany, that you will bring back new housing in Germany. This is why we have solid pricing dynamic in those different countries. Also, I mentioned that in my introduction, the fact that we are organized by country, the fact that we generate solutions. If I take France, we sell 30 different products of Saint-Gobain when we talk about a single family home renovation.
When you sell on the value of that renovation, you move from a bad performance to a good performance, you save 70% on your energy bill. So you sell on the value, not on the cost plus, and I think this reflects well, and it's not new for this year. It has been there growing in the last 3-4 years, the pricing power of the new set of organization by country, by solution of Saint-Gobain.
Can I just ask a quick follow-up?
Of course.
You've already mentioned, on U.S. Roofing, you've started the conversation about another round of price increases. Are there any other products that you would call out in Europe or the U.S. where you're already having that dialogue about more price increases?
Gypsum, raw gypsum, raw gypsum in North America, but, you know, I could quote, maybe you are based in the U.K., I could quote, you know, gypsum in the U.K. We have had a price increase this year on gypsum in the U.K. Why? Because we have a super strong team leverage the full set of, of solutions. British Gypsum is the clear leader in this country, so-
Sorry, I meant, I meant 24, 2024 conversations. Have you started those yet with customers?
As I said, we have had those early discussions on roofing. It will be something announced, you know, for January. We have had also those discussions on gypsum, U.S. for 2024, and we will have those discussions in the different countries. Usually, in Europe, it's more in late December, January, so it's a bit early. If I take last year, you know, the U.K. market situation, which was not rosy end of 2022. Nonetheless, our teams have been able to land, if I take gypsum, if I stay in the gypsum category, a nice price increase on gypsum in 2023 and gaining market share. Why? Because they have the fantastic offer on the market to service all the direct contractors or the distributors of the U.K. Yes, we have started to have those discussions here and there.
Okay, thanks.
The next question is from John Fraser-Andrews of HSBC.
Thank you, and good evening, gents. Two for me, please. The first one, just coming back on the pricing. Could I ask to clarify the +2% in North America, is that sequential or a year-on-year increase?
Actually, it's in North America. It's overall... Well, you want to answer, Sharon?
Yeah. So, this 2% is, it's an increase, it's a sequential increase. You see that in North America, it's a sequential increase.
Year to date, year to date, if I take North America, we're up 5% in pricing.
So is that? Yeah, I see, I see that. So does that mean there's been any weakness in Latin America that's offsetting that in the year-on-year number?
Correct. In Latin America, in some product lines, notably in glass, because in Mexico and in Brazil, we have had very strong price increases in 2022. We had to adjust slightly. That's part of the very intelligent trade-off that Sharon mentioned in terms of market share, price, and volume. We had to adjust slightly in just glass in Latin America, but starting from a very high base for Brazil and Mexico. And if I'm correct, we started again to push up some prices in late September in Mexico.
In Mexico, again, they continue to have a Price-Cost Spread positive even in 2023.
Sure. Okay. And then just on European pricing, is there any differential? Because I see that Southern and Northern Europe pricing in Q2 was very similar year-over-year, and now there's quite a variation between them. So are the weaker markets in Northern Europe versus the stronger ones in Southern Europe having an impact on price, where perhaps you're making gains in Southern and you've lost a little bit of ground in Northern Europe?
No, actually, it's not, frankly speaking, it's not material if I look at the pricing dynamic, Northern Europe versus Southern Europe. What is true is that in Southern Europe, if I think of Spain, if I think of Italy, those countries overall, in terms of dynamic-
Much more-
Are stronger, and therefore the pricing actions are even stronger. So that may explain a bit the difference. It's purely if you take on the negative side, Germany, Sweden, and on the positive side, Spain and Italy, that explain in itself the slight difference in pricing in Q3.
Thank you. The last one was on, second one was on renovation. Does resilient mean that year-over-year, these volumes, I'm particularly thinking in Europe and the U.S., are these volumes stable? Or is resilient a reference to sort of relative to the new build falling much more?
So there is a wide spectrum in terms of resilience between the different countries. If I think of, you know, renovation in North America, it's actually up. If you think of roofing, part of that is quite related to renovation, so that has been up. If I think of Northern Europe, it's around zero, so it's resilient. Some countries in Northern Europe have been slightly negative, so it varies. But overall, I would say North America up on renovation. Most of countries in South Europe, around zero, and Northern Europe, you are a bit more in the slightly negative, notably in Northern Europe or countries like Germany.
Thank you, Benoît. Very helpful.
The next question is from Martin Flückiger of Kepler. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good evening, gentlemen. Thanks for taking my question. I've only got one left. We've spoken a lot about pricing tonight, and if I remember correctly, not too long ago, we had this news about the European Commission raiding offices of construction chemical companies. And if I remember correctly, also, your communication officer was saying that you guys were cooperating with the antitrust or the cartel authorities. So was just wondering whether you can and are willing to provide us with an update on that story? Thanks.
Well, everything has been put as a statement on our website, and nothing has changed. It is still, it is still there. So I'm very confident about our internal processes on this topic. You know, that, we have a zero tolerance policy on all those compliance matters. We have also a lot of internal processes, being training, being internal audits, and those tools, in terms of compliance, have been duly applied to the newly acquired businesses of construction chemical, right after the acquisition. So all this, again, is, part of the statement which is on our website. So indeed, we cooperate with the antitrust authorities, and we can say that we don't expect any financial impact for Saint-Gobain on this matter. But again, please refer to the full website if you need the full comment.
I can read the statement, but I think I mentioned the overall main comments in terms of how serious we are, the fact that indeed we cooperate, and the fact that we have applied all our mechanism of compliance, trainings, internal audits to the newly acquired businesses of construction chemical at the time of the acquisitions.
Thank you very much.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.
Okay. Well, again, if there are no further questions, thank you very much for your time. Again, an excellent year for Saint-Gobain, a new record on the margin, so we are very happy about that. We will continue to prepare very well for 2024. Back to the questions, we will detail more in 2024 what means success for Saint-Gobain in 2024. I hope we will see many of you at our site visits in France on the 13th and the 14th of November, because that will be an important visit. Meeting, of course, with some of our managers, and digging into the world of construction chemicals of Saint-Gobain, where we have, you know, close to EUR 5.5 billion, and doing well.
The next morning on the fourteenth, with a visit of our gypsum plant, the R&D center, and interacting with our French CEO on top of, of course, Vivien, Sridhar, and myself. So thank you very much for participating, and have a good evening for everyone.