Good evening, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Sopra Steria conference call. This conference call is recorded. If you would like to ask a question throughout the conference, please dial star one on your telephone keypad. I will now hand the floor to Cyril Malargé, CEO. Over to you. Thank you.
Good evening. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We're opening, we're organizing this conference call this evening to share with you some information which has recently emerged and which will have an impact on our 2024 sales. Several, external, conjunctural events, which emerged in the month of June, need to be taken into account in our revenue growth outlook for H2. Firstly, as you've probably all seen, the environment is increasingly uncertain in France, resulting in a significant slowdown in our customers' decisions. There's a good pipeline, but decisions are being pushed back.
This phenomenon is impacting most business sectors, with the exception of defense, security, and transport, who have got clearly positive trends. With regards to the aerospace sector, despite the very encouraging mid- to long-term outlook, it's recently confirmed difficulties in ramping up production. The action plans launched in reaction to the key European stakeholders in Europe is negatively impacting our order book for this year. Finally, in the UK, we're facing a temporary delay in the ramp-up of a significant contract. This contract will make a positive contribution to growth, but we're cautiously expecting it in 2025. In other European countries, growth is positive, as with our solutions activity. In total, we are led to adjust our full year 2024 organic growth target.
In alignment with H1, we're aiming for stable level of revenue on an organic basis compared with +2%-4% previously. So this context, this conjunctural information, isn't changing the way we're ramping up our operations and the transformations undertaken, and they're starting to pay off, and we're seeing this in the group's operational margin. We're confident in our capacity to structurally improve our margin. For 2024, we're aiming for at least 9.7% operating margin, and we are confirming our original target for the year of a level close to 10%. Finally, we're confirming our target to finalize the sale of Sopra Banking Software's activity before the month of September in 2024. Now, I'll hand the floor to Étienne du Vignaux, who will give you some details on the preliminary H1 results.
So H1 2024 results will be presented next week, July 24 in the evening, and they will take into account the classification as assets held for sale for Sopra Banking Software's activities, of which the sale should be finalized before the end of 2024. So as such, the unaudited revenue for the first half of 2024 is estimated at EUR 2,949.4 million. So organic total growth of 3.8% and organic growth of 0.3%. Operating margin on business activity for the first half is estimated at 9.7%, an increase of 0.9% when compared with the first half of 2023. The impact of the classification of Sopra Banking Software's activities as assets held for sale is estimated to be 0.5%.
Net margin for continuing activities in the first half is about 5.5%, before taking into account net results of discontinued operations and minority interest. This is compared with a rate of 4.3% in the first half of 2023. The margin rate for activity continuing operations after deduction of minority interest is also estimated at 5.5%, compared with 4% in the first half of 2023. For the full year, this rate is estimated at 3.2%.
In summary, various external factors which emerged in June have led us to adjust our revenue, which will remain stable on an organic basis, but we do confirm our initial margin target at 9.7%, having taken into account the sale of Sopra Banking Software's activities, whose impact is estimated at +0.2 percentage points. This information is preliminary. As planned, we will publish our results the twenty-fourth of July after market closing, and our quiet period will resume after the telephone conference. I'd like to suggest that we open the floor for the Q&A session. Thank you very much.
If you'd like to ask a question, please dial star one on your telephone keypad. So star one if you'd like to ask a question. First question comes from Laurent Daure from Kepler Cheuvreux. Over to you.
Thank you. Good evening, gentlemen.
Two questions.... First question is on the U.K. contract. It's not the first time we've had a delay on the ramp-up of a contract. Back in the day, I understood it was linked to the previous service provider. Are we sure that in 2025, this contract is indeed going to start? And is the customer committed alongside you? So that's question number one. And the second question I have is on changes in business in the second half. Obviously, we're well aware of the factors in France and with Airbus, but we have other favorable impacts as well. Do your-- is your assumption that the French market is deteriorating structurally for six months, given the impact of the elections, or is there something else in other regions which is the basis for this change?
Yes, Laurent.
So first question on the UK, it's a contract with several different batches, so various different batches which have already started. The last batch, which has been pushed back, but we are confident that it will start. We do have information today which leads us to be quite confident on the matter. We're talking about a start probably at the start of 2025. Now, for H2, with regards to the French market, I think that in reality, the month of June was quite difficult. We'd obviously observe the context in the first half. Specific things have happened that we're all aware of. If we look at France, for us, we will see an improvement in the second half when compared with the first half. You need to bear that in mind.
And then the other regions, are there any concerns? Are there any temporary concerns in other regions?
Temporary concerns? In France, obviously, there's been unknown factors. We've got uncertainty, but we'll see some slight, negative growth in France, so slight negative growth in the second half. Obviously, various factors that are leading us to be cautious with regards to H2. But in the UK, I've spoken about this program shift, but there's no other information at this stage today. And then for Europe, growth, but small growth, mainly driven by Scandinavia, Spain, and Italy. And then for solutions, same applies, a small level of growth. There are no areas that are posting high levels of growth at the moment.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen.
Once again, if you'd like to ask a question, please dial star one on your telephone keypad. Star one to ask your question. Next question is from Emmanuel Parot at Gilbert Dupont.
Good evening. I've got several questions. Could you give us a reminder of the correlation with Airbus production and then order intake for you? Could you give us a reminder of the mechanics here? The second question: What enables you to uphold this operating margin rate when you've got less growth? How have you compensated for this, and then with defense, and how has that impacted margin?
Okay, so first question for Airbus. Obviously, it's not that mechanical. There's no direct correlation, but a lot of people had anticipated a rebound for Airbus in the second half after a very cautious first half.
This rebound won't necessarily take place, and so various decisions have been taken at Airbus, and we're not necessarily, we can't foresee a rebound at Sopra Steria, as with all other stakeholders in the supply chain, that a rebound won't happen before several months' time now. Now, for margin, what means, what leads us to be confident? We'd already said this. We'd already said that the guidance for margin, regardless of the growth, we're confident we can deliver this guidance, and we're saying this because we've launched various measures to improve gross margin for our contracts. We've been working on this for two years now. We're entering into the third year with a good level of maturity when it comes to our action plans. And then we've had the positive integration of companies acquired, synergies that are starting to deliver.
And then we've seen that the progression in margin in 2024 will be good because margin will be above the 2023 levels for the companies acquired. Next, we've had a first half, which is at 9.7%, which is a good starting point to start the second half. And then it's nothing new. Once again, we've launched measures. Measures that we've launched previously are starting to pay off, so cost optimization, and then the real estate reduction, real estate footprint reduction plan. And then we've got a capacity to adapt our workforce, recruitment, share of subcontractors, the amount of our business that's done internally, obviously, depending on growth requirements and on attrition as well. So that's the information I can give you.
Thank you. Very clear.
Thank you.
Just another reminder, if you want to ask a question, please dial star one on your telephone keypad. Now we're going to Antonin Baudry from HSBC. Over to you.
Good evening, gentlemen. Just a new question on the new growth target. What is this based on? Why do you know that this new guidance is achievable? And why have you got this level of confidence with regards to obtaining this target in the future? And then, obviously, you've spoken about 2025. If we finish Q4 flat, what's the outlook for 2025 at this stage?
So, yes, we've reassessed our guidance. We've reviewed the commercial pipeline, which is full.
We based our decisions on the pipeline, taking into account the fact that in France, decision cycles are being pushed. We're going to 3, 6, 9-month long cycles. So we've been quite proactive here. We're trying to assess where the low point will be, to take this into account and take into account the specific context that we see in France. And then for Airbus, we're quite close to this customer, so I think we've got a good level of visibility, with regards to the second half. You were talking about 2025. What's our outlook for 2025?
If we go over the major geographies, the UK, you need to bear in mind that in the second half of 2023, we signed a series of contracts in financial services, including the one that was pushed back, and these contracts are gonna start to ramp up in 2025. So that is the driver in the UK for 2025. Then for Europe, as with solutions, in keeping, we think there's good growth potential. I think that will quite naturally continue. Then for France, clearly, we've decided to set up a specific business task force to take into account the current climate, and our goal is to ensure that we're ready, operational, to attack 2025 in the best conditions as possible.
Very clear. Thank you very much.
Thank you. The next question from Derric Marcon, Société Générale.
Several questions. The first is, could you quantify when we look at the forecast for an acceleration in growth in revenues that you've got for H2 compared with H1? There was a 4% percentage difference here. Can you quantify the impact that Airbus could have, quantify the impact of less business with Airbus on this target to accelerate growth in the second half? Second question is on potential deals that have been postponed or which haven't started in Q2 or even Q3. And what are the impacts for your forecast for Q4? Are there some deals that won't have been signed in Q3 that you'll get before the end of the year, the end of 2024?
So what's the outlook for Q4, besides from the postponement of the contract in the UK? And then the last question is on France. Obviously, we know that the climate is difficult, but when we look sector by sector, we're seeing, obviously, impacts in the public sector. If this is not the case, what are the other sectors, where you, where you've got a significant amount of activity?
Okay. So, Étienne, if you want to go for the first question. So, with regards to the consensus, which was slightly under 3% for the full year for organic growth, the delta is 25% aerospace, 25% postponement of the UK contract, and 30%, slowdown in France. Afterwards, there's small impacts here and there, across the board, but those are the major-- that's the major outline. Second question now.
Q3 to Q4, obviously, we're quite cautious. France can get going again in September after the Olympic Games. The morale will be improving. The National Assembly will have had a chance to catch its breath. So we're cautious, but we think there should be an improvement. With regards to exposure to the different sectors in France, defense, security, and transport, I've already mentioned that. And then other sectors which are flat, where we're quite resilient, given the context, is the public sector and financial services, that we're well established in these sectors. And then where we're experiencing negative growth, aerospace, and then obviously energy and telcos. So, Étienne, can you give us the three blocks?
25% Aero, 25% UK. So these three items are 80%. So 25% Aero, with the group's largest account, 25% UK contracts, and then about 30% in France. So and then just general business, yeah, it's distributed across other areas.
Thank you very much. Thank you for your answers.
Next question from Nicolas David at ODDO BHF. Over to you.
Hello, Cyril. Hello, Étienne. Two questions: Can you give us the revenue for SBS that was classified as assets held for sale? And are you confirming the EUR 340 million annually? That's my first question. And then, we haven't had that many comments on free cash flow. Are you where are you at in the first half, and what's your guidance for the full year?
First question, revenue, deconsolidated revenue, 100 and...
Over 100 million EUR, so full year is obviously twice that. This confirms what we'd already said. Then for cash flow, we'll give you more balance sheet items next week, but we're not communicating on that today. So, one bit of information that I've already mentioned, I can come back to the net result for continuing activities. If we take off minority interest, we'll be at 5.5% in the first half, and we can estimate that for the full year, we're expecting 5.5% net result for continuing activities. And the free cash flow, there's no reason to think that for the full year guidance, there'll be an impact here. No, we'll come back to that next week. We don't give details on that now.
Anything new that we need to bear in mind, any qualitative information on the free cash flow?
Right. I can repeat what I've just said for qualitative information, for full year and for the first half. We're expecting a more difficult context when it comes to collection, public sector. We've obviously planned this into the budget and to the way we built the budget obviously will be above the first half of H1 2023, but that's how we built our budget. And this is obviously taken into account in the annual guidance.
Last question. We haven't spoken about the Benelux and Ordina and Tobania. What can you say about the first half, and have there been any postponements in this business? Are these regions that are holding up well?
We'll come back to that in detail next Wednesday. Next Wednesday. I can repeat what I said earlier. Obviously, we've been very much focused on integration of the companies acquired. This applies to CS, Ordina, and Tobania in the Benelux. Integration is going well, quite clearly. Synergies plan is progressing well. Margins will progress in 2023, and the result will be up in 2024, sorry, compared with 2023. We've got, for example, financial services in the Netherlands, European Commission, or defense and space business at CS, which is obviously benefiting from the synergies with Sopra Steria. So that's what I can say at this stage.
Okay, thank you. And then free cash flow. Is this linked to a problem with data?
These are...
This is preliminary, non-audited data, so, we'll come back to you on that, if you will. So we'll wait for that next Wednesday then. Okay.
Thank you.
We've got one question from the English line. Over to you for the question.
We'll take our next question from Wolfgang Specht, Berenberg. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes, hello, good afternoon. Can you shed some more light on the at least 9.7% operating profit margin or margin of operating activities? Is this including or excluding the contribution from the SBS assets?
This is excluding, as we do not consolidate SBS anymore, I mean, under IFRS 5 rules. Donc c'est excluant SBS.
So this is excluding SBS in our calculation-
Okay, yeah.
because we're applying IFRS 5.
... Okay, so your organic guidance is also falling a little bit on this lap?
Sorry, didn't get you.
That means that the underlying guidance, which used to be 9.5%-10%, is always also somewhat weakened because you're now excluding the contribution of SBS.
Oui, oui.
Yes, that's why we're saying at least 9.7%. That's the minimum.
Okay. Thanks a lot.
Thank you very much. We'll go back to the French line, and we're going back to Derric Marcon from Société Générale.
Sorry to come back. I forgot two little questions. The usage rate, could you give us an idea or a few qualitative comments on usage rate in the different quarters and then the postponement of the project start? And then for two, we haven't spoken about the UK. Six months ago you were quite confident with regards to the UK pipeline major contracts. Is this still the case? Is your vision of H2, has it been impacted by anything? Has this changed your forecast for the UK?
So for the first question, there's not really a link between the bench and then the figures in certain programs. We manage this on a daily basis.
We manage our workforce using internal staff, subcontractors, recruitment, which obviously we organize depending on our growth requirements and our production requirements. If I have to compare this with last year, the bench is slightly higher, but this is something that we can absorb into, to margin quite easily because we are confirming our guidance. For the U.K., level of confidence with regards to the pipeline is still there. We're still confident. In Q2, obviously, the elections have slightly planned, the elections has slightly impacted, obviously our JVs. We've looked at our sourcing for our customers. We've seen this in Q2, but this is a conjunctural impact. We've got multi-annual contracts here, so in the long term, in the U.K., obviously, looking towards 2025, we're not concerned about the U.K., which continues to improve its performance.
Great, thank you.
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, last reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please dial star one on your telephone keypad. We don't have any more questions. I'll hand the floor to you, Mr. Malargé, for some final comments.
Thank you very much for listening, and I wish you all a great evening. Goodbye.
Merci beaucoup.