Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to this Sopra Steria 2024 Annual Results Presentation. For information, the conference will be recorded this morning, and you will be only able to listen to the conference. However, there will be a Q&A session at the end of the presentation. If you wish to ask a question, please dial star one on your telephone keypad. If you need any help, please press star zero, and you'll be connected to an operator. I'll hand the floor to Cyril Malargé, CEO, to start the presentation.
Thank you. Good morning. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to this webcast for the Sopra Steria 2024 annual results presentation. I will lead this conference with Etienne. He will present the details of the financial results for 2024. Then I'll conclude with midterm outlook and targets for the full year.
I will finish with the Q&A session. Let's start with the highlights of 2024. Firstly, our results were significantly up despite a wait-and-see market. Revenue held up well with an organic contraction of 0.5%. Operating margin on business activity was up at 9.8%, thus enabling us to hit our target set three years ago, so an ROA of roughly 10%. The net profit attributable to the group from continuing operations was up 68.4% at EUR 309.3 million. The free cash flow was very, very solid at EUR 432 million, which represents 7.5% of revenues. Operating performance was solid despite the market context. Sopra Steria had its best year since 2007 from an operating margin point of view and from a cash generation point of view. We've seen a key improvement in ROC, so before tax, which was above 20% and stood at 21.5%.
2024 also concluded with an improvement in cash returns for shareholders, so here we've seen a market cap of EUR 3.5 billion or a free cash flow yield of over 12.3%. We've seen a dividend of EUR 4.65 per share, and Sopra Steria decided to launch also a share buyback program for EUR 150 million, and this has enabled the group from the 2nd of October up until the end of January 2025 to buy back 858,000 worth of shares, i.e., 4.3% of share capital, and these shares are to be retired in 2025. Now, if we come back to business, I want to share some good victories in 2024, major wins in the second half of the year. First of all, for Airbus, we've renewed our framework agreement with them for IT services, so EUR 1.5 billion over five years. We've also renewed our framework agreement for corporate services.
This covers consulting activities for EUR 150 million over five years. For defense in France, so for the French armies, in logistics, we've renewed and extended a contract for the information systems for maintenance in the land army. That's a contract with SIMMT, so for EUR 250 million with cloud deployment and artificial intelligence solutions as well. For the Ministry of Justice in the prison system, thanks to CS's expertise, we were chosen for cyber compliance for 15 establishments and then also for renewal and then operational security for 250 prison centers in France. In Norway, we've won a new customer with significant potential. This customer is Gassco. They've chosen us as a strategic IT partner to modernize their IT from infrastructure right through to their applications. Finally, I wanted to mention a two-year extension up until 2027.
So, our contract in the UK with the Metropolitan Police, and this is a contract that is part of our SSCL framework. So, all of these deals were won in the second half, and they show Sopra Steria's capacity to support major European players with their performance and their transformation challenges. 2024 enabled us to refine the group's project to clarify its strategic positioning. We had the sale of Sopra Banking Software's activities, and that's meant the group could clarify its positioning as a European group, as a digital services and consultancy company. Next, to support our project, we decided to accelerate our transformation trajectory, which encompasses our offers, our operating model, human resources, industrialization, and then it also encompasses external growth. Perhaps just a couple of words on the operating model and offers.
We've appointed a Chief Operating Officer in Q4 of 2024 to structure, to shape the trajectory for transformation of our operating model at a group level. In terms of our offers, I also wanted to highlight that we've decided to create two cross-functional business lines. We've got the digital platform services, so cloud services, infrastructure, and then also our platform run services for a total of EUR 600 million. And this business line is supporting all of the group's countries. We've done the same thing with cybersecurity, with a business line which has over EUR 200 million in revenue and intends to deliver prevention, detection, and response services across all of our countries. These decisions obviously aim at boosting synergies across our geographies and boosting the value of our assets and our offers.
Now, if we come back to Sopra Steria's identity post change in scope, so post the sale of SBS and post the acquisitions in 2023 of CS, Tobania, and Ordina, what are the key takeaways? Digital services represent 85% of the group's revenues. Consulting represents 9% and solutions are 6%. The key verticals in the group represent 78% of revenue, so public sector 26%, including Ordina, defense and security, including CS's business, aerospace 10%, and then CS as well. And financial services are 20%, including Ordina and then Aurexia when the planned project will have been completed. Acquisitions have also reinforced the group's position with its top 100 key accounts. They now represent 66% of revenue, of which there is 40% recurring revenue. Now, finally, the operations over the past two years have meant that the group can rebalance its portfolio. France now represents 42% of revenues.
The UK, 17%, Benelux, 10%, Scandinavia, 10%, Germany, 7%, and then other Europe represents 9% of the group's revenues. Now, if we come back to technology, as you know, we set ourselves a target of increasing the share of revenue coming from next-gen technologies to hit 60% of our revenue by 2028. This change is well underway. We've got some initial results. We've increased by 32% the number of certifications that our experts hold. So focusing on ServiceNow, SAP, cloud, cybersecurity, data, or artificial intelligence. We've also had various accolades from market analysts, so NelsonHall, PAC, and Quadrant. They recognize us as a leader in Europe in cybersecurity, in cloud, or in artificial intelligence. This is good, but we're not limiting ourselves to current technology. We're also exploring new emerging technologies to be able to prepare the future.
With our Corporate Ventures program, this is a program that interacts with an ecosystem of over 500 startups in Europe. We have an active watch, and we invest in future domains like quantum computing, secure to be able to manage data securely, or various different other capacities. Now, if we come back to AI, obviously this is at the heart of our transformation, and it's at the heart of the way we operate. We're rolling out AI across all of our business lines, across all our functionalities internally. A year and a half ago, we launched a major program called rAIse, which intended to accelerate adoption of AI within the company and to support our customers as they develop their solutions.
In 2024, we've trained all of our employees, and we've also invested so that all group developers have access to our augmented development platforms and the AI augmented assistance. And this is 100% operational. We've got specialized assistants that have been developed for our project managers, for our consultants, but also to boost our employees' efficiency in their daily work. So these virtual assistants are now rolled out, and they are operational. We've also invested in our offers, in our solutions, our partnerships. Sopra Steria Next has released a new study a couple of weeks ago on trends in this market. And then finally, I wanted to highlight a very promising new partnership, which we communicated on last night, so a partnership with Mistral. And through this partnership, we want to enhance our offers with GenAI.
So we want personalized models developed based on Mistral and then optimized for strategic use cases for our customers in critical and sovereign sectors, so defense, aerospace, energy, and then the public sector. Finally, we've also made progress in terms of our CSR challenges and sustainability. So CDP confirmed that for the eighth year running, and we're very proud of this. So Sopra Steria for the eighth year running got a score of A, so one of the most transparent and active companies in the world. And this recognition takes into account our net zero targets, so by 2030, - 54% for scopes one and two, and - 37% for scope three. At the end of December 2024, reduction rates were 52.7% for scopes one and two, and then 23.9% for scope three. So we are aligned with our objectives and should hit our 2030 targets.
In terms of social initiatives, we saw an increase in the proportion of women at the most senior levels of the company, plus up 1.3%, so standing at 21.4% for women in the top three most senior positions, and then up 0.8 points, coming in at 22.3% for the proportion of women in the top 10% of the most senior positions within the group. So now I'd like to suggest that we look at the group's operating position by reporting unit. We'll start with France. Revenue for the total group revenue stood at EUR 2,437.9 million, and we saw the levels of growth here. But outside of the aeronautic sector, growth would have been roughly stable. In terms of sector dynamics, we saw a contraction in most sectors, with the exception of defense and the public sector, which were up in 2024.
Volumes in aeronautics stabilized in Q4, and they reached a low point and stabilized in Q4. Now, in terms of operating margin on business activity, which was at EUR 220.4 million, or 9% of revenue, this was impacted by the drop in the aeronautics sector. We saw an increase of around two points for the margin of CS Group in 2024. Now, if we move to the United Kingdom, revenue stood up at EUR 962.1 million, so organic contraction of 0.5%. We saw strong growth in the private sector, and the public sector contracted. In the fourth quarter, revenue were down 9.4%, and this was impacted by various specific factors, which I'll come back to, but against this backdrop, we maintained operating margin on business activity at a high level, so 12.1%, and that was up 1.1 points when compared with 2023.
So now, if we just take a look at the specific factors impacting the UK business in the UK, business was marked between the end of Q3 and the start of 2025 by specific quarterly factors impacting the environment in the UK, which I want to describe, but it's also impacting visibility. So we saw it suffered from a high basis for comparison with the SSCL platform, which was up 25% in Q3 2023, and this obviously explains the negative growth that we saw in Q4 2024. The rest is explained by the expiration of a significant contract for visa renewals that was planned, and then we couldn't compensate for this loss of revenue with the NS&I contract launch that was obviously planned for the fourth quarter in 2024, and that was pushed back to start on the 1st of April 2025.
These three impacts had an impact on Q4 2024, and they will impact the first quarter of 2025, but then they will progressively be eliminated, and we will see an improvement in quarterly trends as of the second quarter 2025, and we expect a return to growth as of Q3 2025. So that's for the UK. Now, if we head to Europe, revenue in 2024, EUR 2,049 million, so organic growth of 0.5%, driven by Scandinavia, Spain, and Italy, between + 8% and 10%. Other countries stood at between - 3% and - 5%. We saw operating profit on business activity was EUR 186.4 million, or 9.1%, and we did indeed see the positive impact of Scandinavia, Spain, Benelux, and Italy, so up 0.4 points versus 2023. Now, if we come to solutions, revenue stood at EUR 327.8 million, organic growth of + 1.1%.
This was driven by the human resources solutions, which were up 3.6%. Operating margin on business activity was 12.5%. If we take into account the changes in scope, margin would have improved by 1.6 points. So now I'd like to hand the floor to Etienne for the financial results.
Thank you, Cyril. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. First, we're going to have a look at the consolidated income statement or P&L. As was the case for the first half of 2024, we have three columns. On the left, we have actuals for 2024 in line with IFRS 5 standards, and therefore the discontinued activities are on an isolated item on the P&L, and then in the middle, it's been restated as if the sold SBS activities had been accounted for as discontinued activities in 2023, plus the reported numbers for 2023. I'll mention the changes versus the reported numbers.
Revenues, EUR 5,776,000,000 , therefore organic contraction of 0.5%, as Cyril said before, the operating profit on business activity reached EUR 564.7 million, therefore margin rate of 9.8%, therefore up 40 basis points versus 2023. The expenses connected to payments and shares reached a bit more than EUR 17 million, therefore a sharp drop versus EUR 43 million that we had in 2023 due to the fact that we didn't have any employee share ownership plan and new performance shares for 2024. After factoring in other operating income and expenses that I'll be talking about in a minute, operating profit was at EUR 460.3 million, therefore margin rate of 8%, up 2.3 points versus 2023.
Then below that line, what we have is the cost of financial debt, which has increased, reaching EUR 35.4 million, due to the fact that the average financial debt increased during the period, and the refocus activities with the disposal of SBS were finalized only in September 2024. In addition to this, there's an increase in the financing cost of one point during the period. The other income and expenses correspond to EUR 3 million during the period, and since we apply IFRS 5, this includes also proceeds of intergroup interests due to SBS, and the interest expenses are on the line called disposed activities. We have six months of a consolidation of a share for net profit from associates from 74 Software Axway in 2024, whereas in 2023, this share was EUR 11.5 million.
All in all, the net profit from continuing operations was at EUR 318.2 million and EUR 309.3 million after taking into account minority shareholders. That means an increase of 68.4% versus 2023 and a net margin rate of 5.4%. The net result from discontinued operations was minus EUR 58.3 million, which includes the expenses connected to the disposal of SBS, the revaluation of disposed net assets, and the results of the disposed activities, and the result of the disposed activities during the first two months of the second half and the other disposals. After taking into account minority interests, the net profit group share reached EUR 251 million, therefore up 36.6% versus 2023. Now, let's have a look at other operating income and expenses, totaling EUR 54.7 million, therefore 0.9% of our revenues versus EUR 137.4 million in 2023.
First, in 2023, in the reported numbers, there was an important exceptional item connected to asset impairments, totaling EUR 86.3 million. In 2024, the expense is as follows: EUR 50.6 million of restructuring and reorganization costs, mainly in Germany, in France, and in the Benelux, and EUR 3.3 million of other income and expenses that include proceeds of a bit more than EUR 11 million due to the fact that we sold the Axway securities, former Axway, by mid-July. In 2025, if we look at other income and expenses, the expenses will be 1% of our revenues, more or less. Now, a few words about our taxes. Our tax charge was EUR 96.8 million, which really shows an effective rate of 23% only, and this includes, as we said during the first half results, non-recurring positive items, including in the UK. The normative rate is at 26% in 2024.
In 2025, we expect a tax rate close to 27% after factoring in an exceptional rate levied on large companies in France, which is a one-off measure, which will correspond to one point extra tax charge compared to the normative rates that we had in 2025. Now, let's have a look at our cash generation. The net available cash flow was very solid in 2024 and reached EUR 432.1 million, therefore a bit more than 7.5% of our revenue. Our guidance in the midterm is between 5% and 7% of our revenue to be compared to 2023, which was EUR 390.2 million, and this reflects the fact that EBITDA is up and a change in WCR, which is still positive, even though the context is more difficult this year.
And this number, EUR 432 million, includes a positive cash flow, which is non-recurring on SFT in Germany, that is EUR 45 million, and this flow will be reversing in 2025. Now, a few words about the debt. The debt was EUR 382.2 million at the end of the period, therefore a decrease of almost 60% versus the end of December 2023. This sharp decrease in our debt is due to a number of things: a good available cash flow, as I said, plus a managed cash in, a bit more than EUR 400 million, thanks to our business refocus with the disposal of SBS, and also after financial investments, the debt was decreased by EUR 362 million.
The cash assets and disbursements due to the dividends in 2023 reached EUR 96 million, and share buybacks during the period totaled EUR 132.4 million, and they include EUR 109 million for the plan that was launched at the beginning of October. As Cyril said, it came to its end at the end of January, and therefore the remainder of EUR 41 million was cashed out in January 2025, then the balance sheet on the 31st of December 2024 is healthy and solid. The net financial debt represents 19.3% of our equity, and the leverage ratio is 0.61 times our pro forma EBITDA for 2024 before IFRS 16 impact, therefore a good leverage, which is comfortable, then financing, the group still has comfortable financing with lines that have been authorized for a total amount of EUR 2 billion, more or less.
More or less two-thirds of those were available at the end of period 2024, and the maturities are in between July 2026 and 2029. That's for the 2024 numbers. Now, Cyril, over to you on the outlook and the objectives for 2025.
Thank you, Etienne. So the plan, if we look at the 2028 plan, I'm not going to come back to it in detail because it's already been presented during the Capital Markets day on the 12th of December last year, but as a reminder, Sopra Steria wishes to be a European leader in digital services and consulting. We want to position the group as a credible European alternative to global players, and our goal, as you know, is to support our major customers' transformations and to respond to their strategic challenges.
To do so, we have a high-added value offers approach based on an industrial and long-standing approach, also based on technology as well. The group wants to develop its foothold in four strategic sectors, so public sector, financial services, defense and security, and then aeronautics and space as well, where there are sovereignty and responsible digital challenges, and it's becoming even more critical in Europe. In terms of the services the group offers, we want to deliver more business value and more technology value, so consulting will be developed to represent at least 12% of the group's revenue by 2028, just like new-gen technology, which should exceed 60% of the group's revenue as well. For targets for the coming period, we're also presented during the CMD in December.
As a reminder, between 2026 and 2028, we're targeting organic growth in revenue between 2%-5%, supplemented with external growth for EUR 1 billion. We're targeting operating margin between 10% and 11%, a free cash flow between 5%-7% of revenue, and then an ROCE before tax of around 20%. Now, if we come back to our assumptions as it stands in 2025, across our market, digital is across the board. It's a powerful lever for performance, for transformation, for organizations and administrations. So no doubts in terms of the long-term underlying trends, which is positive in our market, and we know there is potential for growth in the mid and long term. Now, in the short term, we are expecting unfavorable conditions to continue into the first half of 2025. There's a high level of uncertainty in several European countries, particularly France.
It should be noted that there is an unfavorable calendar effect with one less working day in Q1 when compared with 2024. More specifically, for Sopra Steria, we've got a high basis of comparison in terms of revenue, so in the UK in the first quarter, but also for aeronautics in the first half, especially in France. However, we are aiming for continued growth in Scandinavia, Spain, and in Italy. So against this backdrop, Sopra Steria has set its full-year targets for 2025, organic revenue growth of between - 2.5% and + 0.5%. In the first quarter, we should see the low point of the year with a change expected between - 5% and - 6%.
The lower end of the range reflects a lack of improvement in market conditions in the second half, and the higher end of the range reflects an improvement in the second half of the year in Europe. Now, in terms of operating margin on business activity, 2025 will be impacted by an increase in social security contributions in the UK, but also in France, and this increase will have a direct impact on operating margin, so by 30 basis points in 2025 when compared with 2024. Restated, we think we should uphold our operating margin on business activity in 2025 when compared with 2024. If we achieve our growth targets, then we should hit between 9.3% and 9.8% in operating margin, so 9.8% being at the top end of the range. And then finally, we're also aiming for free cash flow between 5% and 7% of revenue.
So that's all for the annual presentation. We've finished now, so I'd like to thank you for listening, and I'd like to suggest that now we move on to the Q&A session.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. If you want to ask a question or make a comment, please dial star one on your telephone keypad, and please make sure that your microphone is activated when you ask your question. The first question comes from Nicolas David at ODDO BHF. Over to you.
Good morning. Good morning, Cyril, Etienne. A question on growth dynamics throughout the year. We've understood that the first half will be the low point, but can we have a bit more detail expected between the -5% and -6%? What will be the impact of the UK and the contract here, and then also the calendar effect at a group level?
And then what will growth be? And then could we have some information on the momentum for the rest of the year? What would be the mid-range? What would be the scenario if we have a slight recovery with the UKVI? Do you have a concrete vision, or do you not have a vision of the situation in terms of demand? And then the contract in the UK, there are two things I wanted to ask about UKVI. Is this all of the contract that has come to a close, or is it just part of it? Is there a ramp down? Is there a ramp down in addition to what we've got currently?
And then compared with your other contracts, which will enable you to renew growth, so NS&I, are there other contracts, multi-annual contracts that have already been signed, or are you expecting contracts to be signed throughout the year? And then margins, the impact of tax on salaries, and then this comes out with a margin in the mid-range, so that's not going up. So what about France? Is this just linked to utilization rates, or has something stopped, or are there impacts of prices or salaries?
So let's come back to growth now. First quarter, yes, I confirm that will be the low point in terms of organic growth. In the UK, we've got environmental factors. Obviously, we've got the basis for comparison with the SSCL values because Q1 2024, we had a 25% growth.
So obviously, you can see the impact of the comparison, but that is eliminated as of progressively. And then for the UKVI contract, this is a contract which is coming to a close at the start of Q, which came to a close at the start of Q4. But then we've got the NS&I contract, so it's kind of the same volume of revenue, same as the UKVI. So one is replacing the other. And then for France, for Q1, we've got the high basis of comparison with Airbus. We reached a low point in Q4. So in the first half, this basis for comparison, obviously very active in the first half. This is going to be eliminated in the second half.
And then for France, I think everyone's bearing this in mind, the fact that the national budget hasn't been increased. Public administrations, they haven't at the start of the year; they didn't launch their plans, and so we've got a slower start. And then I also wanted to highlight that we've got a slower start in Germany and in the Benelux as well. We are anticipating an improvement in Q2. It will be better in Q2. Why? Well, in the U.K., we will have the high basis for comparison, which will be eliminated, and then we'll have NS&I, which will start on the 1st of April. So that's the first factor.
And then the next factor is that in France, but also Germany and the Benelux, aside from the slow start to the year and its impact, we've signed deals at the end of 2024 which haven't started yet, and they will be starting. So we've got a bit of visibility in terms of the second quarter. Now, for the second half of the year, we've got a low level of visibility with regard to market changes, but we can say, firstly, that we've got a business pipeline which is full. We're expecting decisions before the end of the first half or the end of the year. This doesn't mean that our customers are pushing back decisions. Obviously, we've seen that up until now, but in any case, we don't need to go looking for more deals to fill up the pipeline. The pipeline is full.
Second factor is that we haven't got the comparison impacts that we've had in the first half, so in the UK, but then Airbus as well. And then we've got NS&I, which is starting on the 1st of April, then we'll be fully up and running by the second half. So that's what I can say in terms of growth. Now, for margins, what was the question? Prices, changes in prices in France. In 2024, prices increased 3.6%. Salaries increased between 3%-3.5%. So this is obviously something we're monitoring very closely. Obviously, it's had a greater impact than in previous years, but we've had a positive impact of the increase in prices. But this is obviously an area of focus that we'll be looking at closely in 2025. And what about the UK? The contracts? There's not just NS&I, there are others?
Yes, so there's NS&I. Obviously, we've commented on this. We've already announced that previously. But to support growth in H2, we've got a ramp up of a contract which has already started two years ago, so a secured platform for defense. And we're expecting about EUR 20 million in H2. So that's going to ramp up that contract. And then we've got our equity Debt Management Platform, which started in previous years, and it's starting to pay off. We've seen new customers on that. And then we've got other procurement services for the NHS, which we've invested in last year, and they'll be ramping up this year. So we've got a good level of visibility here.
Clear, thank you.
Just as a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please dial star one on your telephone keypad. Next question from Antonin Baudry at HSBC. Over to you.
Good morning. Good morning, Cyril and Etienne. First question, in the long term, so 2025, we're seeing a contraction in business for the second year running. But what about the long-term effects? The market is a positive market. It's buoyant. And then at the end of the year, what can we expect for the exit rate, Q4 2025? What type of growth can we expect in 2026? And then just one question, the 0.3 points on salaries. Is this a permanent impact?
So if we take growth, we're at the mid-range of what we're planning for 2025. That's - 1%. So compared with the 0.5% in 2024. So it's stabilizing. Q1 is starting lower and then ramping up progressively. And the speed at which it ramps up will depend on the market. But in terms of the market, we don't have visibility for the time being.
Now, if we think about long-term trends, why do I think the market is a growth market? I've observed that every time there's a new technology which emerges, it represents a genuine driver for transformation for businesses and for major organizations. So we saw this with GenAI, sorry. There are no programs being launched without GenAI integrated into them. So a return to growth in the long term between 3%-5% is something that seems to be quite plausible, and I do believe in this scenario. Then for 2026, it's a little bit soon to say. When I said that we've got a low level of visibility for the second half of 2025, I can't really give you visibility for 2026.
For our guidance, 2026 to 2028, I've given you the scenario, and I think we can base our estimations on that, but I don't have any more information for the time being. Just the impact on margin for salaries, the 0.3%, Etienne? We'll have to wait for future finance legislation. Half of the impact is coming from France and half from the U.K. We've seen the impacts of the vote two weeks ago, and then in the U.K., we've seen an increase in national insurance contributions as well. So this is distributed across the two countries. That's all I can give you in guise of an answer to your question. We don't know what future French and U.K. governments will decide in the future.
Understood. Thank you.
Next question from Emmanuel Parot, Gilbert Dupont. The floor is yours.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.
Can we just come back to 2025 margin? So if I've understood, we've got the 30 basis points of the additional expenses. This will have an impact on margin, whereas your business is going down. So I wanted to know why you can sort of compensate for this, for the drop in business. This impacts profitability, obviously. So that's my first question. My second is, could we have a reminder of the volume of contracts in the UK? So UKVI and then NS&I. And then finally, third question, could you help us in terms of the gap between EBITDA and everything that comes below this for 2025? Could we have some more information on financial expenses, restructuring, free shares? Could you just give us some more information?
Yeah. So for 2025 margin, as you're saying, restated for the 30 basis points, we're targeting stable margin.
We're confident in this because obviously we've launched our transformation, so this is an in-depth transformation of the company, started three years ago, and it's starting to pay off. We're drawing on the following levers, the business mix, consulting, and digital, so in 2024, we made up 8 points in digital when compared with 2023, so we can see this change, which is already underway, and it should continue into 2025, and then profitability of our digital activities is obviously higher than legacy activities, and then the second driver is that we're working on gross margin for our projects. Obviously, we've got our portfolio management initiative, and after two years now, it's mature, and it is starting to pay off. Third factor, synergies from acquisitions made in 2023, paying off as well, so CS, and then in the Benelux, and then the last point is cost control.
We will benefit from the decisions taken in 2023 and 2024, so on real estate costs and all of that. And then volume of the contracts, so annual volume. Do bear in mind that in terms of volume in revenue, NS&I compensates for UKVI. And then for EBITDA, so the items below the ROA, other operating income and expenses is 1% of revenue. And then share-based payments between EUR 20 million and EUR 25 million this year. And then financial expenses. We've got a budget without M&A. Obviously, it depends on what we do. But in terms of debt at the end of 2024, the group was about just below 4% in 2024. We'll see the change in rates, but we're expecting a drop in these expenses for 2025.
So the key items and then minority interest, I think we'll have about the same amount as in previous years, about EUR 9 million.
Thank you. Final question, please. You're saying that there are uncertainties in France, which is something we can understand. This is a general comment. But then if we look at your key accounts, I'd say, or I think that some large accounts give you more visibility or are more reassuring compared to other sectors where you have less visibility. Could you tell us more about this sectoral approach that you have in France?
Well, we have this France sector-based approach, and what we can say about this is that if we look at administration or public services or defense, these sectors are very resilient. And this is giving us some interesting information in 2025. Then for aerospace, we don't have much visibility. We have quarterly volumes.
It's good if we have a good start again in the second half. It's going to be a good surprise if there's a recovery or a pickup in 2025 second half, and then financial services, that's another sector. I don't know if it's the market that's like that or if it's because we're efficient, but we have the impression that we have large programs that are starting again, that large French banks have and Sopra Steria really has a role to play.
Thank you. Crystal clear. Thank you.
Next. Laura Metayer from Morgan Stanley. The floor is yours, madam.
Hello. Hello. My first question is, what would you say about the impact of GenAI on prices in the midterm and longer run? And question number two, back to your exit rate for Q4.
I know that you have limited visibility, but could you give us more colors on that, the exit rate for Q4? Thank you.
Well, the impact of GenAI on prices, well, that's a very tricky question. Difficult to say anything about this, give you more information on that. We don't have enough experience. Nobody has. We're not mature enough. Nobody is. We're seeing productivity gains, though, on the deals, the contracts for which we use GenAI. But as we speak, I've not seen any clear impact on pricing. What we're seeing, rather, is that for a given lump sum type of contract, we can perhaps deliver more services. This is the type of trend that I think is emerging today. But things are changing so quickly. After two years of GenAI today, I'd say it's not been a tidal wave, as was said.
That's no massive impact on productivity gains nor on pricing, but there's a ramp up that's slow, let's say. Well, some companies, some clients today are going beyond the proof of concept, the POC ceiling, and now it's AI at scale in an industrial mode, but that's only the early stages. So these trends will take three to five years to fully develop. Then what was your second question, please?
I know you don't have much visibility during the second half of the year, but do you have any idea of a range or guidance you could give us for the growth that you could have in Q4?
Well, for Q4, our growth rate will first benefit from Q4 2024.
There was a decrease, 2.7% at least, a negative 2.7%, and will also benefit from the fact that we're going to sign some of the contracts we have in the pipeline. Q4 is going to be the quarter that will really take advantage from the commercial pipeline, which is quite solid because we have large customers whom we know well, and they know us well. And also back to NS&I and the ramp up, and the fourth quarter will give us the largest volumes of all quarters. That's all I can say for the time being. But if there's really one quarter for which I have more confidence, it's Q4.
Thank you.
Next question. Laurent Daure, Kepler Cheuvreux, the floor is yours.
Thank you. Good morning, gentlemen. I have three questions to ask. First, can you tell us more about the aerospace business? You're saying that it's weak.
Is it mainly due to Airbus, or is it all the key players in this industry? And compared to the situation two or three months ago when people were saying that it was more or less sequentially stable, is that confirmed, or have you been disappointed recently? Second question, the large contracts, the visa contract was lost because it was reinsourced by the customer. Is that the reason, or is it another bidder who won this contract, or are there other such deals that you can renew in the months to come that could perhaps be a risk hovering on your outlook? And third question, the extra expenses that you've had connected to the UK and France. Can't we pass on this increase to the customers? Your assumption is that you will pay all these expenses, and that'll weigh on your margins. Thank you.
For aerospace, no, nothing's changed in the past three months. What we said at the time is that we'd reached a flooring in terms of quarterly volumes. We had said EUR 100 million as an average. That's the quarterly revenue. That is EUR 400 million for the full year. We're still on this trend. I'm talking about Airbus, sorry, Airbus. And then if we look at the other clients we have in this industry, I'd say that I can confirm that we had a good growth, a two-digit growth in 2024. Names such as Dassault Aviation and Safran, Thales, Naval Group. I know it's on our seas, and the trend is positive as well in 2025. But this wouldn't, of course, fully offset the Airbus effect. We have visibility. We renewed our framework agreements, which was essential for us.
We renewed the contract we have for IT services to the tune of EUR 1.5 billion five years, and that was very important. And the framework agreement on corporate services for consulting, that's EUR 150 million over a period of five years. Then the UKVI contract. This UKVI contract was something that changed in terms of the scope covered and the nature of the activities. And geographically as well, it changed. It's about visas given that are given either in the UK or in embassies or consulates. We were only in the UK, and the new tender has a broader scope. It has been given to a third party, to a third company. It's not the administration that has taken the contract. And social expenses, yeah, these expenses will impact us directly. The French law for social security is quite recent.
It was voted 10 days ago in France by the parliament, not even 10 days. So this is our current assumption. It'll have an impact on the P&L. Of course, we can still discuss that with our customers, but that's one element among others. As I said, it's half-half, half for France, half for the UK. In absolute values, the amounts are not that huge. So we could knock it at the doors of our customers and say, "Okay, there's EUR 7 million or EUR 8 million for France. That's the impact." We could have this discussion if we wanted, but it's not that easy to have this type of conversation with our clients.
And do you have other contracts coming to their term in the UK? Is that a possible risk?
Well, we have a contract, SSCL, and the maturity is end of 2025. But we're working on that.
We're currently working on the renewal of these contracts. We hope we're going to have good news to talk about in the weeks to come and the months to come. Metropolitan Police was renewed. That's true, on the same platform. The contract we have with the Metropolitan Police, EUR 50 million, more or less, and that was renewed a little while ago.
Thank you very much.
We'll take a final question, please. Next question, Thomas Poutrieux from BNP Paribas.
Hello, hello, Etienne. Hello. I have a final question to ask about Airbus. Could you confirm EUR 100 million? That's the decrease over one quarter. You said that during H2 2025, we could have an acceleration. Do you have more information so that you can say there's going to be an acceleration in 2025? And then Etienne mentioned a positive one-off in Germany to the tune of EUR 45 million.
Could you tell us more about this one-off item and, apart from the reversal you mentioned in 2025, what do you expect in terms of DSOs?
Thank you, Thomas. For the growth in H2, I'll repeat what I said earlier on. As you probably know, we don't have much visibility as far as our markets are concerned. So in our guidance, we factor in the fact that we don't have visibility. However, there's what we have in the commercial pipeline, what we've already signed off, what we're going to start, the ramp up of large contracts that we've mentioned before, and also what's good for us is the comparison basis that's going to be good for us, favorable for us. That's why if you look at the lower end of our bracket, there's an improvement of the situation today, taking into account these elements.
- 5, - 6 Q1, and lower end is 2.5. That's all I can say for the time being. These are the elements on which I developed this guidance for the year for the group. Now, the cash position, free cash flow and DSO, yes. For 2024, what I said is that in Germany for SFT, that's our joint venture with Sparda-Bank, we benefited from a free cash flow that was positive, plus EUR 45 million. And we're going to have the same number, but with a negative sign before. That is a reversal of the trend in 2025. So a swing of EUR 90 million only for this activity. So look at 2024 and 2025 and remember this number. Then for DSO, we think it's going to be going down a little this year by one day.
We'll try and keep the same levels that we had in 2024.
Thank you very much. This is the end of our webcast. We're even a bit late. Thank you very much for being with us. Have a nice day. Bye-bye.