STMicroelectronics N.V. (EPA:STMPA)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2021

Jan 27, 2022

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the STMicroelectronics fourth quarter and full year 2021 earnings conference call and live webcast. I'm Moira, the Chorus Call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and one on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Céline Berthier, Group Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, madam.

Céline Berthier
Group VP of Investor Relations, STMicroelectronics

Thank you, Moira, and good morning. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2021 financial results conference call. Hosting the call today is Jean-Marc Chéry, ST's President and Chief Executive Officer. Joining Jean-Marc on the call today are Lorenzo Grandi, President and Chief Financial Officer, and Marco Cassis in his new role since January first as President of Analog, MEMS and Sensors Group. Marco has kept as well some global corporate role. He is as well head of STMicroelectronics strategy, system research and applications, and innovation office. This live webcast and presentation materials can be accessed on ST's Investor Relations website. A replay will be available shortly after the conclusion of this call. This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause ST's results to differ materially from management's expectations and plans.

We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the press release that was issued with the results this morning, and also in ST's most recent regulatory filings for a full description of these risk factors. Also, to ensure all participants have an opportunity to ask questions during the Q&A session, please, limit yourself to one question and a brief follow-up. I'd now like to turn the call over to Jean-Marc, ST's President and CEO.

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Thank you, Céline. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining ST for our Q4 and full year 2021 earnings conference call. Let me begin with some opening comments. Starting with Q4. As announced on January 7, net revenues and gross margin came in better than expected, primarily due to better than anticipated operations in an ongoing dynamic market. Q4 net revenues of $3.56 billion were up 9.9% year-over-year and 11.2% sequentially, coming in 140 basis points above the high end of our business outlook. Q4 gross margin was 45.2%, 20 basis points above the high end of our guidance. Our operating margin was 24.9% and our net income was $750 million. Looking at our full year 2021.

Net revenues increased 24.9% to $12.76 billion in 2021, reflecting a strong performance across all the end markets we address and our engaged customer programs throughout the year. This performance progressively strengthened versus expectations we provided during the year, despite the challenges faced by the global semiconductor industry supply chain. All three product groups achieved double-digit growth in 2021. Our profitability further increased. Full year 2021 gross margin was 41.7% and operating margin was 19%, compared to 37.1% , sorry, and 12.9% respectively in full year 2020. Our net income nearly doubled to $2 billion. Free cash flow for the year was $1.12 billion and CapEx was $1.83 billion.

Our net financial position was $977 million at December 31st, 2021, compared to $1.1 billion at year-end 2020. On Q1 2022, at the midpoint our first quarter business outlook is for net revenues of $3.5 billion, representing an increase of 16.1% year-over-year. Gross margin is expected to be about 45%. For the full year 2022, we will accelerate the execution of our strategy and value proposition. A strategy which stems from three long-term enablers, smart mobility, power energy management, IoT and 5G. A value proposition based on sustainable and profitable growth, providing differentiating enablers to customers, supporting them with an independent, reliable and secure supply chain.

Committing to sustainability for the benefit of all our stakeholders. We plan to invest about $3.4 billion-$3.6 billion in CapEx to further increase our production capacity and to support our strategic initiatives. This includes the first industrialization line of our new 300-mm wafer fab in Agrate, Italy. Based on our strong customer demand and increased capacity, we will drive the company based on the plan for full year 2022 revenues in the range of $14.8 billion-$15.3 billion. Now, let's move to a detailed review of the fourth quarter. On a sequential basis, Q4 net revenues increased 11.2%. This growth was driven by both ADG and MDG, up 22% and 15.4% respectively, while AMS revenues were substantially flat.

On a year-over-year basis, net revenues increased 9.9% with ADG and MDG growing 28.6% and 23.7% respectively, and AMS decreasing 11.2%. Gross profit was $1.61 billion, increasing 28.3% on a year-over-year basis. Gross margin increased to 45.2% from 38.8% in the year ago quarter and was 20 basis points above the high end of the company guidance, principally driven by improved product mix, favorable pricing, and manufacturing efficiencies. Net operating expenses in Q4 were $720 million. Q4 operating margin was 24.9%, up from 20.3% in Q4 2020, with ADG at 17.6%, AMS at 26.6%, and MDG at 29.9%.

Net income and diluted earnings per share increased about 30% in comparison to Q4 2020, with net income of $750 million versus $582 million, and diluted earnings per share of $0.82 versus $0.63. Let's look now in more detail at our full year results, starting with a recap of the market and business dynamics we saw during 2021. A year marked by a strong market demand, but still impacted by the pandemic and global semiconductor supply chain constraints. Here, I would like to take the opportunity to thank all of the ST employees who worked tirelessly through the year to support our customers, drive our increased manufacturing efficiency, and create innovative new products.

All this in the context of the ongoing challenges of the pandemic, where we continue to support our employees across the globe, ensuring the most stringent health and safety measures in every site where we operate. For 2021 in automotive, we saw unprecedented demand across all geographies as the industry continued to rebound from the difficult environment. The rebound was broad-based across all customers and regions. It was driven by the volume of vehicles produced, the replenishment of inventories across the automotive supply chain, most importantly, an accelerated transformation of the vehicle industry towards more electrification and digitalization. Bookings remain strong through the year. Backlog visibility is now about 18 months and well above our current and planned 2022 manufacturing capacity. In industrial, we saw through the year very strong demand, both in high-end and consumer industrial.

Electrification and digitalization are the main trends driving semiconductor content increase also in this end market. In terms of demand, factory automation was one of the main drivers, together with power-related applications, including renewable energy, motion control, power tools, and home appliances. Demand was strong both with distribution as well as OEMs, in line with our approach to be broad in the highly fragmented industrial market. Through 2021, inventories of our products at distributors remain lean across all product families with high inventory terms. Also, point of sales were strong across all products and geographies. In personal electronics, smartphones continue to be an essential source of social connection and streaming services for entertainment, fitness, gaming and music. Smartphone volumes returned to growth in 2021, about 3% year-over-year, driven by 5G adoption.

Demand for accessories was strong through the year, with healthy dynamics related to other connected devices such as wearables, tablets, hearables and true wireless stereo headsets and game consoles. In communication equipment and computer peripherals, we saw continued adoption of 5G related products as well as a sustained demand for PCs and especially notebooks through the year. The hard drive market recovered somewhat from its decline in 2020. We also saw low-Earth orbit satellite programs launch or ramp up in a number of countries. Looking now at our full year financial results in greater detail. Net revenues were $12.76 billion for 2021, increasing 24.9% year-over-year, reflecting a strong performance across all the end markets we address and our engaged customer programs through the year.

Sales to OEMs and distribution returned to a more balanced split in 2021, representing respectively 66% and 34% of total revenues. This compares with 73% and 27% split in 2020, influenced by the first phase of the pandemic affecting the industrial end markets. By region of origin, 41% of our 2021 revenues were from the Americas, 34% from Asia-Pacific, and 25% from EMEA. In terms of revenues by product group on a year-over-year basis, ADG revenue increased by 32.5%. Both subgroups, automotive and power discrete, recorded double-digit growth. AMS revenue grew 18.8%. Analog and MEMS recorded double-digit growth for 2021, supported by continued growth in imaging product sales. MDG revenues increased by 24.3%. Microcontrollers, our largest subgroup, reported double-digit growth, partially offset by the expected decrease in radio frequency communication revenues.

Gross margin increased to 41.7% for 2021, expanding from 37.1% for 2020, reflecting manufacturing efficiencies and loading improvements, favorable pricing and product mix, partially offset by negative currency effects, net of hedging. Our operating margin also significantly increased during 2021 to 19% from 12.9% in 2020. The increase in the company's operating margin was well supported by all three product groups. ADG operating margin expanded to 11.8% from 5.5%. AMS operating margin increased to 21.9% from 20.8%, and MDG operating margin increased to 24.3% from 16.6%. Net income increased 80.8% to $2 billion for 2021 from $1.1 billion in 2020. Diluted earnings per share were $2.16 from $1.20.

Moving now to other financial indicators. Net cash from operating activities increased about 46% to $3 billion for 2021. CapEx was $1.83 billion compared with the 2020 CapEx of $1.28 billion. Our 2021 investments were about $300 million lower than what we had expected, mainly due to later than planned equipment deliveries. Our full year free cash flow was $1.12 billion compared to $627 million in 2020, up almost 80%. Cash dividends paid to stockholder in 2021 totaled $205 million. During 2021, we repurchased shares totaling $485 million under our prior and new share repurchase programs.

Our net financial position was $977 million at December 31st, 2021. Reflecting total liquidity of $3.52 billion and total financial debt of $2.55 billion. Now let's move to our 2022 first quarter outlook and our plan for the full year 2022. For the first quarter, we expect net revenues to be about $3.5 billion at the midpoint, representing a year-over-year growth of 16.1% and a sequential decrease of 1.6%. Gross margin in Q1 is expected to be about 45% at the midpoint, up 600 basis points year-over-year and sequentially flat compared with Q4 2021.

For the full year, we will accelerate the execution of our strategy and value proposition, a strategy which stems from the three long term enablers, the smart mobility, power energy management, and IoT and 5G, and a value proposition based on sustainable and profitable growth, providing differentiating enabler to customers, supporting them with an independent, reliable, and secure supply chain, and committing to sustainability for the benefits of all our stakeholders. We plan to invest about $3.4 billion-$3.6 billion in CapEx to further increase our production capacity and to support our strategic initiatives. Looking in greater detail, our CapEx plan includes approximately $2.1 billion for capacity additions and mix change in our manufacturing footprint.

In particular for our wafer fabs, digital 300 mm in Crolles, analog 200 mm in Singapore, silicon carbide power MOSFET 150 mm in Catania and Singapore, as well as assembly and test operations. About $900 million for strategic investments. This includes the first industrialization line of our new 300 mm wafer fab in Agrate, Italy, as well as gallium nitride technology and silicon carbide raw materials initiatives. The remaining part of the CapEx plan covers the overall maintenance and efficiency improvements of our manufacturing operations and infrastructure, as well as our carbon neutrality execution program. On this latter topic, a key element of our sustainability strategy, we are moving ahead in our environmental roadmap to be carbon neutral by 2027.

In 2021, we improve our total greenhouse gas emissions efficiency -27% versus 2020, and our use of renewable energy reach about 51%. Based on the strong customer demand and our planned investment to increase capacity, we will drive the company based on the 2022 revenue plan of $14.8 billion-$15.3 billion, representing revenue growth of about 16%-20%. To conclude, in 2021, ST delivered strong revenue growth and increased profitability. We work alongside our customers, continuing to adapt our supply chain to support their strong demand. For 2022, we continue to work on making ST stronger. We are convinced that we have the right strategy and resources in place.

Our balance and market focus and position, our solid product IP technology portfolio, our integrated device manufacturer model, our transformation programs, and our focus on high growth application that continue to accelerate their strong positive dynamics. We are investing significantly to support this acceleration in order to capture new opportunities, working alongside our customers and to prepare our growth for the years to come. Before we take your questions, save the date. We will be hosting our Capital Markets Day on May 12 in Paris. We hope to be able to have an in-person event and will also webcast live. Thank you. We are now ready to answer your questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question or make a comment may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. Anyone who has a question or a comment may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Aleksander Peterc from Société Générale. Please go ahead.

Aleksander Peterc
Director and Head of Technology Hardware Equity Research, Société Générale

Yes, good morning and congratulations for great results. Thanks for taking my question. I guess the first one I would have would be on how we should think about your gross margin developing throughout the year. I think you mentioned last year there could be some near-term headwinds from higher input costs, but it's clearly not the case in Q1 where you guide for flat gross margins at this high level. How much do you expect this to develop over the year? Do you expect the pressure later, or will you build on this strong gross margin in the first quarter?

Just very quickly, secondly, if you could comment on why R&D was so low in the fourth quarter and how we should think about OpEx modeling for the year. Thanks a lot.

Céline Berthier
Group VP of Investor Relations, STMicroelectronics

Lorenzo will take the question.

Lorenzo Grandi
President and CFO, STMicroelectronics

Sure. Good morning, everybody, and thank you for the question. Yes, about gross margin, what it will be the sustainability of the gross margin that we have posted during last quarter in Q4 and what we have announced for Q1. For sure, you have seen that in Q4, gross margin was stronger than expected. This was mainly thanks to more favorable product mix and definitely also thanks to the price environment. We continue to see a gross margin at this level, let's say, also for Q1.

With the current market environment that we see, at the level of the revenues that we have, let's say indicating in our plan, we think that we should be able to maintain our gross margin around the current level, as an average for the whole year. Of course, we expect some seasonality in our gross margin. Means that, for instance, we do expect some slight decline in Q2 in respect to what we stand in Q1, and then maybe some recovery in the course of the year in the second half. In the next following quarters, actually, the dynamic of the gross margin will be impacted by various elements. Some of them are positive, some of them are negative.

On the positive side, we do expect some further revenue price increase and also some, let's say, positive impact from the manufacturing efficiency that is improving. On the negative side, of course, we have the full impact that is not yet totally reflected in our cost of the increase on production of the material price, increase in the cost of foundry in OSAT, as we have the increase in their quotation, as well as a significant increase in the energy cost, as you can imagine. Also, increase depreciation in our COGS as a consequence of our CapEx plan will impact on short-term our gross margin. This will be before, let's say, to translate higher output and improve manufacturing efficiency.

All in all, we do expect that substantially we may stay at this level of gross margin with some, let's say, up and down in terms of seasonality during the year. The second question was about expenses. Let's say yes, indeed, expenses of Q4 came, let's say, lower than we were expecting, or originally expecting. This was mainly driven by the fact that two main components, I would say, for this level of expenses, in the Q4 quarter. On one side, we had some lower discretionary expenses, especially, let's say, on the last part of the quarter, related to the fact that there was some impact in some sites due to the pandemic.

Some of our employees were not allowed to go to work and, of course, some activity had some kind of slowdown, especially in the second part. Actually, there has been some positive one-time item, let's say, linked to the remeasurement of some accrued liability. This, of course, is something that is impacting the quarter, but is not something that is recurrent. Maybe I take the chance, maybe to anticipate some other question about what it will be the dynamic of the expenses moving forward. As I said, in Q4 were particularly low. What we do expect, for instance, in Q1 is that there will be some increase in our expenses.

This increase is related, of course, some activity increase in our R&D, and as I was saying before, and the non-recurring of some impact that we had during the previous quarter. We may say that our expenses it will be something in Q1 more in the range of net expenses, including other income and expenses, more in the range of $820 million. I hope I have answered your question.

Aleksander Peterc
Director and Head of Technology Hardware Equity Research, Société Générale

Yeah. Thank you very much. Thanks a lot.

Céline Berthier
Group VP of Investor Relations, STMicroelectronics

Thank you, Alexander. Now we take another question, please, Moira.

Operator

The next question is from Matt Ramsay from Cowen. Please go ahead.

Matt Ramsay
Managing Director and Senior Semiconductor Analyst, Cowen

Thank you very much. Good morning, guys. Good morning, everyone. Jean-Marc, I wanted to step back and ask a sort of a multi-part question. I mean, if you look at remarkable results, and congratulations, 2021, you guys grew the company, say 25% on revenue, and it looks like you're guiding for high teens growth off of that in 2022. I guess what I would like to get your perspective on is just the overall drivers of that growth. I mean, you're essentially growing the company by 50% in a couple of years off of the pre-pandemic levels. I guess what I wanna understand is how would you characterize the growth? Is it how much driven by secular things like electrification and digitization in autos, et cetera?

How much driven by capacity expansion, and how much driven by pricing increases? Particularly the question that I get from investors, not just for your company, but for the industry, is how durable are some of these price increases through the cycle? If you had any perspective there, I'd really appreciate it. Thank you.

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Thank you. I will comment on the mega trend and maybe Lorenzo will comment on the volume, mix and versus pricing. Well, about the growth of ST, between 2019, 2020, 2021 and our indication for 2022, we see basically two elements to make it very quite clear and simple. First of all, if we split the electronics market in two, the standalone electronics, which is personal electronic consumer and communication computer. Our strategy has been very consistently clear since many years now. Here, we are very selective with some engaged customer programs, and we take opportunity of high volume application with our general purpose MCU and analog and power device.

Here, ST has the capability to both take advantage of the high volume from this part of the electronics. For sure, we are quite successful with some very specific customer engaged program where we provide differentiation to the customer. Well, this is something that since 2016 we are growing every year. The second part, which is the core of our strategy, is about embedded electronics, the well-known automotive market and the industrial market. Here, post-2020, I would like to confirm that these two markets, these two verticals, are facing first recovery or rebound after 2020, definitively. More importantly, it is a major transformation these two verticals are facing.

Again, the electrification of the mobility is accelerating at a speed which was not expected in 2020, driven by the willingness of the world, of course, to improve the environmental footprint, and it is valid in all the regions of the globe. For all the car makers, all the truck makers, all, let's say, the two-wheel vehicle makers. Calling, of course, for more components in terms of power, like the silicon carbide, but also the power analog, for the drivers, MCU for battery management system. In parallel, the digitalization of the car for more safety, so the ADAS. More recently, you have seen Mobileye announcing 100 million cumulative EyeQ device delivery. Believe me, the 200 million will be achieved quite soon.

First of all, the automotive market, which is the most well-known, is really facing an acceleration of the transformation, calling structurally for more components. It will take many years to execute this transformation between 2022 up to 2027, 2030, and calling for a secular more semiconductor content. Something which is less well-known because much more fragmented, it is the industrial market. Here for the industrial market is very similar. You have electrification of everything. The power tools, an example, whatever are for consumer but also for professional. The big infrastructure which are calling for much better efficient electronic system in order to optimize the power energy they consume.

The factory automation, because again, if you remember well, one of the major lesson learned from the pandemic has been that the plant which resist better to the stay at home was the plant with high level of automation. The consumer industry also, the home appliance and basically all the consumer, let's say, application are being more and more, let's say, green neutral. Calling for more MCUs, more MOSFET, more IGBT, more control. As a takeaway, I would like to say as far as ST is concerned. Our dual position to address embedded electronic facing secular transformation, calling for much more semiconductor content. Plus our position, very selective on standalone electronics, where we capture high volume application from general purpose device which are quite efficient, our STM32 as an example.

Very specific engaged customer program where we bring differentiation are the main growth drivers of the company. Now, to give you some color about, respectively, the volume and the price increment or the mix because both played. I let Lorenzo comment.

Lorenzo Grandi
President and CFO, STMicroelectronics

Thank you, Jean-Marc. I wanted to give you some ideas, some data point. Last year in 2021, we grew with respect to 2020 by $2.5 billion, our top line, our revenue. When we look and when we try to split this growth, in the various component, I can say that the main one representing around 80% of this growth is volume. They come from a higher level of volume. Don't forget that in 2020 we had $150+ million of underloading. This year we are running our fabs with increased capacity due to investment that we have done, let's say, fully loaded. Let's say our fabs are running at 90% of loading. That is the maximum. More than that is impossible.

I would say 80% is coming from loading. How about price and mix? Price and mix accounts for the remaining 20% of our growth. I would say they are substantially even, half and half between the two. This is to give you an idea. The biggest driver of our growth has been the volume. For sure price has been important, because definitely the trend was the other way around that normally happens in our market. Let's say, failed to play in a negative way. This year has been played in a positive way for a significant amount, but is not definitely the main driver of the growth. Definitely important on the profitability for sure.

Céline Berthier
Group VP of Investor Relations, STMicroelectronics

Did it answer your question?

Matt Ramsay
Managing Director and Senior Semiconductor Analyst, Cowen

Yes. Thank you very much, guys. I really appreciate all the color and the detail there and very, very clear. Even in the middle of the night, I can understand it. Congrats, congrats again and I'll jump back in the queue. Appreciate it.

Lorenzo Grandi
President and CFO, STMicroelectronics

Thank you.

Céline Berthier
Group VP of Investor Relations, STMicroelectronics

Next question, please.

Operator

The next question is from Alexander Duval from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Alexander Duval
Head of Europe Technology Hardware and Semiconductors Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Yes, good morning, everyone, and thank you for the question. Just a couple of quick ones. We heard overnight from one of your big U.S. auto customers that they see tightness in automotive semis continuing until next year. I wondered to what degree you'd agree with that prognosis and to what extent you see a risk of some kind of correction or adjustment before the end of the year. Just wondered if you could give a bit more color in terms of the semi inventory levels you're seeing in the channel. Then secondly, a quick one on silicon carbide. I wondered if you could give an update on your latest view on the asset you'd acquired there and the extent to which vertical integration as a strategy is gonna help STMicro.

You mentioned just now that as part of your strategic investment, I believe, some of that's going towards silicon carbide material. Wondered how confident you are that you'll have enough wafer supply to deliver your long-term SIC targets, and any update on traction you're getting with car models or platforms on silicon carbide. Thank you.

Céline Berthier
Group VP of Investor Relations, STMicroelectronics

Your first question, Alex, was about automotive or was it globally?

Alexander Duval
Head of Europe Technology Hardware and Semiconductors Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Yes, yes.

Céline Berthier
Group VP of Investor Relations, STMicroelectronics

Your first question is about the automotive and trends, and how we think that the situation should go back to a sort of normalization, whether how is inventory in the channel, how do you see this? The second question is on the vertical integration strategy on silicon carbide, correct? Where we stand, whether we have enough in our hands to what are the strategic initiatives we're going through. The third is whether we have, on silicon carbide, some new news on products, trends, et cetera, in terms of product. Did I correctly summarize your question?

Alexander Duval
Head of Europe Technology Hardware and Semiconductors Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Yes, many thanks, Céline.

Céline Berthier
Group VP of Investor Relations, STMicroelectronics

Thank you very much, Alex.

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

I will comment on automotive and silicon carbide, but definitively if I miss some point, Marco Cassis will complement. First of all, on automotive, from ST perspective, where we provide to this industry, let's say power solution, means MOSFET, IGBT and driver, but also embedded processing solution. Microcontroller. I simply would like to confirm to you that, first of all, our planned capacity for 2022 is sold out. The supply chain, taking into account the number of, let's say, calls and third party calls we have, between car makers, Tier 1s, EMS, there is no inventory in the channel.

There is no inventory built up in the channel simply because the capacity, which is mainly, when we have spoken about, embedded processing solution, capacity using technology node between 90 nm to 40 nm and maybe 28 nm. The capacity for power and power analog, which are mainly, let's say, technology where the node is not the differentiating factor. All these capacity are totally saturated at IDM level or at foundry level. You know that the foundry are massively investing on node beyond 28 nm to support the standalone electronics world. We don't see for the time being, let's say, any inventory build-up.

Again, the challenge for a company like ST, but let's say for a peer like Infineon or NXP, is to have the capability to continue to support the critical and major transformation and successfully the major transformation of the let's say automotive and mobility industry. We still see when cars and vehicles are using let's say more advanced let's say technology and processor still for the time being some tension okay in the supply chain, more related to assembly materials okay. Like substrates okay or frame this kind of stuff. This tension okay should let's say improve progressively let's say through the year and in 2022.

For again, the remaining diversified, let's say, semiconductor product and technology, the tension at least will remain in 2022. Now about silicon carbide. For silicon carbide, we continue, let's say, to win sockets and programs. Okay, we are now engaged with 90 ongoing programs addressing 72 customers. So we definitively confirm our target, okay, of $1 billion revenue by 2024. Our position, let's say, is well balanced between mobility leaders and industrial market.

For part of the $2.1 billion of capacity increase this year, basically the three main parts are the digital 300 mm, then the silicon carbide wafer fab in Singapore and in Catania, and the advanced power analog technology, which are the key device as driver of MOSFET or driver of any solution in the car. In parallel, part of the strategic initiative, I confirm to you that we have already started the building of some facilities in Europe to prepare our future supply internally for raw material and epitaxy, where our target is by 2024-2025 to supply internally 40% of our need.

Based on that, we are confident that we will be capable to continue to sustain our objective to have approximately 30% of market share of this booming market of silicon carbide, which is connected to the acceleration of the electrification of all vehicles. A very strong demand for all inverter, high power inverter in the industrial market.

Céline Berthier
Group VP of Investor Relations, STMicroelectronics

Any follow-ups, Alex?

Alexander Duval
Head of Europe Technology Hardware and Semiconductors Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

That's it, helpful. Thank you so much.

Céline Berthier
Group VP of Investor Relations, STMicroelectronics

Thank you very much, Alex. Next question, please.

Operator

The next question is from Sébastien Sztabowicz from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Sébastien Sztabowicz
Head of IT Hardware and Semis Sector Research, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yeah, thanks for taking the question. One, what kind of visibility do you have on your large redifferentiation design at your main customers, sorry, at this point of the year? Also coming back to the OpEx question, you provide some color, Lorenzo, on Q1. How do you see the OpEx evolving beyond Q1, and can you help us model a little bit the OpEx for the full year, 2022? Thank you.

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

We answer the OpEx first?

Lorenzo Grandi
President and CFO, STMicroelectronics

Yes. Thank you for the question. What is our expectation for the full year 2022, how is the evolution of our OpEx? I was already mentioning, let's say, the level of OpEx that we do expect for the first quarter. Now, I said between $800 million and $820 million. In 2022, this will be a year in which we will strongly invest in OpEx, in our R&D activity. This is to fuel our future revenue growth, of course, and also profitability, as we wanted to push or to continue to improve our product mix.

Additionally, on this, we will reinforce our effort in our programs to transform our company more and more in a digitalized company, addressing our supply chain, addressing the R&D methodology, the quality, the HR, our IT backbone. So many programs we have, let's say, in order to reinforce our processes, our methodology. These of course, all of these will have a true consequence on our expense spending that will increase in respect to what has been done in 2021. However, if I look based on the current sales plan that we have, our what we have communicated, definitely, let's say our expense to sales ratio in 2022 will improve in respect to what has been in 2021.

Céline Berthier
Group VP of Investor Relations, STMicroelectronics

Sébastien, would you mind repeating the question? We didn't hear it so well, the first question.

Sébastien Sztabowicz
Head of IT Hardware and Semis Sector Research, Kepler Cheuvreux

It was a question on your 3D sensing design at your main customer. What kind of visibility do you have on the next potential device that will be launched by your main customer? Thank you.

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Well, generally speaking, we don't comment in detail on our customer. They have really great process to drive their partner and supplier. We have one year of visibility, which let's say gives us the opportunity to drive our operation. This customer will participate to the growth of ST in 2022. As already commented during some previous discussion we have together on the architecture of this subsystem of the smart device.

Okay, we have three years visibility on the evolution, which make us confident that, again, this customer and, specifically Imaging will continue to contribute to the growth of the company in 2022 and beyond.

Sébastien Sztabowicz
Head of IT Hardware and Semis Sector Research, Kepler Cheuvreux

Thanks.

Céline Berthier
Group VP of Investor Relations, STMicroelectronics

Thank you very much. Next question please, Moira.

Operator

The next question is from François Bouvignies from UBS. Please go ahead.

François-Xavier Bouvignies
Head of Europe Tech Hardware and Semiconductor, UBS

Hi. Thank you very much. It's maybe clarification from the questions before. Maybe the first one is on the you mentioned, Lorenzo, the very helpful, the volume and price performance in 2021 that you saw. I was wondering for 2022, what the split is gonna look like. Because when I look at your comments, I mean, previously, you said that you were full in 2022. It's been two quarters, you are saying that. Yet you are consistently, you know, surprising the market and with a growth of 16%-20%, you know, it's a very strong performance on the revenue side.

Can you maybe clarify for 2022 what is a mix of this volume and price would be, very helpful, because I thought your previous comment was on 2021, if I'm not wrong.

Lorenzo Grandi
President and CFO, STMicroelectronics

Yeah, no, definitely. My comment was on 2021, so precise. I would say that, let's say yes, for sure, when I look at our growth moving in 2022, volume will be still a significant driver for our growth. Of course, let's say you see that we have invested significantly during the last year in 2021. We are continuing to invest. It's true that the investment that we are going to do during 2022 will translate progressively in a higher volume. Just to give an idea, let's say in Q1, we intend to invest in the range of $900 million.

It means that there is a significant effort in order to follow the demand and to serve our customer. Of course, there is also the portion of investment relevant for the 12-in in Agrate that will not translate during this year in any significant volume. In any case, I would say that still also in 2022, we will see a similar evolution of our revenues in terms of volume, mix and price. There is still some room from price increase that is embedded inside our guidance. Mix is definitely giving a positive effect also during this year. The volume will be the big driver. This is our expectation.

François-Xavier Bouvignies
Head of Europe Tech Hardware and Semiconductor, UBS

Okay. That's very clear, Lorenzo. It's good. My follow-up is on the capacity increase. I mean, one of the highlights of this quarter is probably your CapEx spend, which is a significant acceleration compared to previous. I mean, we need to go back to 2000. Weirdly, you had a similar almost gross margin of 46%, you know, when you spend the same level of CapEx. I mean, I hope we won't have the, you know, what happened after. But I was just wondering for this CapEx. Can you give us a sense of the timing of the capacity, you know, that will be released with this, you know, significant CapEx?

Because, you know, I believe that it's very tight, you know, in terms of equipment. And you said it before, in terms of equipment. So when should we see the capacity meaningfully increasing following this CapEx increase? And in your strategic program, you said that the increase mainly driven also by strategic initiative like silicon carbide, but you still have $1 billion revenues for silicon carbide by 2024. So I'm just wondering, is it something that will come for capacity after that? Or just are you preparing some capacity over your revenues, just, you know, for the years ahead? Just trying to understand this CapEx, in other words. Thank you very much.

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Well, okay. I take the question and Lorenzo will complement if needed. Well, about CapEx. I repeat, if we split the CapEx, there is $2.1 billion for capacity. This $2.1 billion will be, well, including some carry forward of last year, because, as I commented in my address, we receive late the equipment during the quarter. That's the reason why the CapEx spent were below, let's say the plan. We will pay this CapEx, okay, in Q1. More clearly, the CapEx we'll spend in 2022.

We'll start to participate for a wafer fab of additional revenue in the last, let's say five, four months of the year. The CapEx we will spend for assembly end test will participate basically immediately to the revenue. Well, for the capacity, I have to say that the main part of the CapEx is clearly approximately half of that for our 300 mm wafer fab in Crolles. Here it is driven mainly by embedded processing solution for automotive, so microcontroller and the industrial market, so MCU. Why? Because you see an acceleration of the conversion of the MCUs on 40 nm because the capacity on mature technology 8 in are totally oversaturated.

There is no more investment on this kind of mature MCU, whatever is the region in the world. First of all, the 300 mm will support the digitalization of the connected MCUs in automotive. The second driving factor to increase the capacity for the 300 mm is ADAS. Currently the important volume for ADAS is 40 nm and 28 nm as well. The second important part of the capacity is silicon carbide in Catania and in Singapore. Of course, this will contribute for this year where we will continue to increase our revenue, let's say above $700 million of revenue in 2022, going and prepare the $1 billion.

After the other part of the capacity is again for automotive because in terms of power management, analog mixing and ICs, in terms of driver of power MOSFET, IGBT, you need to have power analog technology in the range of 110 nm, which is the most efficient technology. This will be done in Singapore. This big part, these three elements represent basically 75%-80% of the total capacity increase will contribute from wafer fab perspective in the last part of the year and are preparing 2023. This point number one.

Assembly and test will contribute for 2022, and I have to say that, unfortunately, assembly and test is really now a bottleneck because whatever the capacities are at IDM level or OSAT are really fully saturated, and the equipment suppliers are themselves limited by the semiconductor supply. We have many, let's say, events where the equipment makers they are not capable to supply what we need. About the investment for strategy. Well, guys, the move to a 300 mm for, let's say, the market we address and the product we address. For the next 10 years, when you address the market of automotive and industrial, the technology you will need will be between 90 nm-16 nm. Massively.

Of course, you will need some very specific case for automotive, like the vision processor or some gateway, and for very specific case in industrial, very advanced technology, but it will represent below 15% of the need. 85% of the need will be massively 90 nm to 16 nm, plus the power technology. Here you need to execute progressively the conversion to 300 mm. And that's the reason why ST decided in 2018 to start to build plants in Agrate, Italy, to prepare this long-term mega trend. In 2022, this is the time to set up what we call the first industrialization line, where on two or three technology we have decided supporting our long-term revenue roadmap to qualify.

To qualify a technology to address the automotive market and to address the industrial market cannot be done overnight. Okay? You need basically one year to qualify a technology. It's a mandatory milestone to set up, okay, this 300-mm first industrialization line. To be ready in 2023 and beyond to support the growth on the company addressing analog mixed signal technology and embedded processing solution technology. That's the reason why definitively 2022 is a specific year. Because on the one side, you have a very strong demand and backlog on industrial and automotive market that we have to support because nobody can support them except ST everywhere we are. In parallel, you have to prepare yourself to prepare your future transformation and growth for the next five, 10 years. This is mandatory milestone to set up the industrialization line in Agrate.

Last but not the least, I repeat that we have taken the decision few years ago that ST want to have a part of our own supply chain on raw material silicon carbide. Why? Because we do not want to be limited in innovation, in cost decrease, and in wafer size increase. That's the reason why we have decided to set up in Europe a mega factory for raw material. This mega factory for raw material will have also the epitaxy capability. This mega factory, okay, for the future will have also the capability to support wafer fab fabrication. This is a full picture of the CapEx, which is driven, of course, by the short-term demand we consider very solid. Again, here I would like to repeat, we have 18 months on visibility.

The total backlog of the company, compared to the capacity of 2022 is basically 50% above, so medium short term. We are preparing the future for 300 mm conversion and silicon carbide, and by the way, gallium nitride as well. This is the full picture of the CapEx.

François-Xavier Bouvignies
Head of Europe Tech Hardware and Semiconductor, UBS

Thank you, Jean-Marc. Very, very clear answer.

Céline Berthier
Group VP of Investor Relations, STMicroelectronics

Unfortunately, we have already passed a bit the time. We have time for one last question. Not too long. Thank you so much. Moira, we take the last question.

Operator

The last question is from Jerome Ramel from BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.

Jerome Ramel
Head of Semiconductor Team, Exane BNP Paribas

Yeah. Good morning. Thank you for including me. Just a question, Jean-Marc, on the seasonality for Q1, which is much better than usual. Could you give us a little bit granularity per end market or division? My second question just on the CapEx, clearly big numbers. Without front running the Capital Markets Day in May, does that mean that you're also very confident that globally speaking, you see more growth beyond 2022 for STMicro? Thank you.

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

For Q1, the strong revenue guidance is driven by automotive and industrial market, definitively. We have the usual seasonality for personal electronics, driven by the various important OEM we have. But clearly, with the backlog we have requested by customer, even if we would have the capacity, believe me, the guidance of Q1 would have been much higher. It is clearly seasonality, for the time being, except for personal electronics, which is still valid. Seasonality for automotive and industrial market is something we have to forget for a while, because of the very strong demand. The second question is about Céline.

It was-

Céline Berthier
Group VP of Investor Relations, STMicroelectronics

Was, was, uh-

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

CapEx.

Céline Berthier
Group VP of Investor Relations, STMicroelectronics

Without front running the analyst today, is this level of CapEx? Tell me if I'm right, Jerome. Does that mean that we expect tougher growth beyond 2022?

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

No, but we are convinced.

Jerome Ramel
Head of Semiconductor Team, Exane BNP Paribas

Yeah.

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

As I conclude, during my address. When we look at the market dynamic in the next five years, unprecedented transformation of the automotive and industrial market. The positioning we have on these two markets, plus the one we have on consumer personal electronic communication, where again, I repeat, we will be able to capture some important programs with our differentiated technology. We will be capable to capture high volume application thanks to our general purpose device. We are convinced that our growth strategy based on organic one plus bolt-on acquisition.

When we want to accelerate on some specific IP blocks or technology block will enable the company to grow and to perform better than the market we serve on the long-term trend. Yes, what we are doing this year is of course to execute and supply 2022 and prepare 2023, point number one. Point number two, to prepare ourselves to the medium long-term growth that the company expects. Thanks again to the strategy we have, market positioning, customer base. Clearly it's very important that we support our customer in the short term. We offer them the flexibility, the agility to support their strong demand.

Jerome Ramel
Head of Semiconductor Team, Exane BNP Paribas

Thank you.

Céline Berthier
Group VP of Investor Relations, STMicroelectronics

Thank you very much. This is the end of the session. Thank you so much all of you for your attendance as usual.

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Thank you very much. Bye-bye.

Lorenzo Grandi
President and CFO, STMicroelectronics

Thank you. Thank you. Bye.

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Thank you.

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