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Citi European TMT Conference

Mar 14, 2023

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome back to the afternoon session on the opening day of Citi's European TMT Conference. I'm Andrew Gardiner. I have the responsibility of covering the semiconductor sector here for Citi in Europe, and it's our pleasure this afternoon to have STMicroelectronics, in particular, Jean-Marc Chéry, President and CEO, and we have Céline Berthier and Alessandra Fumagalli from Investor Relations with us as well. I've got a list of questions Jean-Marc has kindly agreed to discuss with us. We'll have some time towards the end to open it up for Q&A if any of you in the room have questions as well. First of all, thank you very much for coming, Jean-Marc.

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Thank you. Invite me.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

It's our pleasure. Perhaps we could start just on the broader cycle. If we, if we think of how you guys framed things with results back in January, you were acknowledging softness in certain parts of the market, continued strength in other parts of the market. Can you just give us a bit of a high-level update as to where things stand at the moment in terms of perhaps the broader cycle and the different end markets?

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

No, I can confirm exactly what I said, at the end of January, early February. Now, with some additional visibility, because, of course, we visited customer both in Asia and in U.S., it is clear that automotive market and what we call the industrial B2B, so, power energy, robotics, automation, healthcare, this kind of stuff is very solid. This is confirming by our backlog, which is still representing six to eight quarters of revenue and capacity. The consumer stuff, so personal electronics, personal computer, is still weak, and there is a kind of consensus that it should restart in H2, having absorbed the excess of inventory which has been built last year on personal computers and smartphone or accessories.

Depending definitively about the consumer behavior, both in America, Europe, and China since China has reopened, let's say early December. This is this consensus. Far for ST, that the reason why, okay, we provided the indication for the year between EUR 16.8 to 17.8 billion. I confirm that if the consumer market smoothly restart in H2, pushing the demand on smartphone and personal computers, we are exposed, okay, to this market, not significantly, but we are exposed. In automotive and industrial, okay, remain as we see today. Clearly, we will be at the upper range of our indication. If the consumer market, okay, restart is postponed next year, we could be at the mid-range. This is, okay, exactly, the dynamic we see, we see today.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

How would you characterize the, I suppose, like the push and pull within the market? I mean, you've talked about capacity constraints, you've talked about sort of where demand is. What's the bigger problem for you at the moment?

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Well, the complexity is maybe still higher compared to last year. Why? Because on some technology clusters, and market, we are still depending our capability to increase our own capacity, so means we are dependent our vendors, and especially we are dependent the equipment vendors, the process equipment vendors. I have to say that on assembly and test, the situation is improving. On process equipment, the situation is still under stretch. We have to monitor very carefully the on-time delivery of the process equipment in order to enable ST to deliver the ramp-up in critical technology, like the 40 nm, the 28 nm, the silicon carbide, the IGBTs, the MOSFET, the VIPower, so BCD and so on. This is one kind of constraints.

Here, okay, we have a backlog which is well above our capacity. On the other end, on the consumer market, we have not, let's say, fully the backlog to deliver our forecast. Here it's a matter of order entry. We know that how many order we are missing to fulfill our, let's say, high-end indication of our range for the year. This year, okay, we have to manage still capacity constraints from our own supply chain, implement on time our capacity increase and support our customer automotive, industrial, and consumer stuff, okay, it's a matter of order entry.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

You mentioned the full year outlook and sort of touched on some of the swing factors there. I mean, you sounded particularly confident in recent presentations about how the year is looking and I suppose in particular on the bookings. Can you remind us of how you've addressed sort of the level of backlog and concerns over double ordering that might be in there and sort of how you've cleaned that up to give you that confidence in the outlook for this year?

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

At the midpoint of our indication, EUR 17.3 billion, we will grow 6-7%. H1, with the midpoint of the indication of Q1, I have to say that H1 we will grow above 15% year-over-year. H2 versus H2 last year will be at the midpoint, with a slight growth. Here that the reason why I communicated to the market that H2 for us will be special. Why? We will have a mix change in important customer programs, where we will have less revenue, a significant decrease of revenue, better gross margin. Okay?

We absolutely do not lost any silicon content, but it is a mix change in the overall system. that's the reason why at the midpoint, okay, the sequence will be average we will grow 6%, 7%, H1 15% year-over-year, H2 basically a slight growth or flattish. this will provide the EUR 17.3 billion . Well, H1, basically, okay, the backlog is there, okay? Order missing on consumer is quite small. Okay? again, what is important will be H2 for us, in order to decide at which level we will run our manufacturing, okay, to be at the upper range or to be at the mid-range. Double ordering.

Double ordering, I repeat, okay, what we monitor, okay, is the inventory at our distributor level. Yes, we have seen some inventory increasing, when you look the variation of inventory increase, okay, on a dynamic way, but they are still, okay, in inventory turn, which are totally, let's say, acceptable to run a business in normal condition. We are not detecting, okay, excess of inventory. This is something we are monitoring very carefully, and that's the reason why we manage our POP, POS, okay, to ship to distributors in order to not build excess of inventory. Then at OEM level, on the car industry or industrial level, we have not detected excess inventories at all.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

I suppose with that combination of demand, supply, inventory, where does that leave us today in terms of the pricing discussions you're having and the kind of visibility you've got, not only through this year, but into next year?

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Here, we are very, very selective. Again, on automotive and industrial B2B, there is price stable. Sometime, through negotiation of the supply, there is still some price increase. There is some specific package or technology cluster and consumer market where definitively we see some price discussion and price pressure. Overall, we do believe that the price at company level will be neutral for our gross profit in 2023.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

From a longer-term perspective on pricing, do you think things have really changed in the industry over the last few years? Are we gonna go back to more normal dynamic in time, in terms of the price erosion? You know, given your end market exposure and the type of product you have, the increasing move towards longer-term, supply arrangements, you know, have things shifted?

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Well, if for the market we address, automotive and industrial, well, I think there is many, let's say, point that change. Well, first of all, technology that are used, okay, to address embedded electronics, so, power solution or embedded processing solution or sensing solution, now are asking technology either in 300mm or for a new material like the wide bandgap in 200mm. This is calling for new investment. This will not be done by investment done in the past on a fully depreciated fab, because, okay, since, okay, 10 years, the 300mm, okay, fab are invested on FinFET.

To enable microcontroller real-time or and advanced analog and so on and so forth, you need 28 nm or 14 nm technology or 20 nm technology, calling for new investment. Nobody can say and say, "I am enjoying a fully depreciated fab," well, except maybe ST, Crolles, to support the business. This is point number one. And clearly, the car industry and the industrial B2B, they need this technology to make their transformation. Decarbonization, automation, electrification, and digitalization on top of the advanced processor. This is one aspect that changed a lot, okay. In 10 years ago, in the past, okay, you have mature eight-inch available, and you have some twelve-inch available. Now it's no more the case.

It's for 200 mm fab, it's the same. If you discuss with equipment maker, they will explain to you that they are investing in 200 mm. This brand new tool, okay, will cost investment. You cannot leverage the depreciation too much. In front of customer, okay, they cannot enjoy excess of capacity, okay, making price pressure on semiconductor. Well, the second element is inflation. Okay, this is something looking, let's call it structural for a while, because of the energy, because of the, of some shortage, in commodity and so on and so forth. You will have inflation. More, there is a labor cost, okay? Labor cost for the time being, will increase, maybe not at the level of inflation.

It's our duty to contain it by the productivity improvement and automation and robotization. Okay, labor cost, okay, will have to be decently increased. You have, okay, driver of overall cost increase that the customer, okay, cannot blindly say, "We don't care." Okay? If not, they will have not, let's say, capacity allocated to them. Yes, of course, we will come back to the normal price discussion where you need to have a price roadmap, but price roadmap you will improve with the substance of what you are doing. Technology improvement, okay, process improvement, productivity improvement. Not, okay, price pressure related to offer versus demand, where basically you make some speculation about the capacity.

The only waiver, the only exception I am seeing about this new condition is what is happening in China, definitely, because China is increasing capacity on the mature technology, importantly, but it will be more to address the local market. For sure, for a semiconductor company like us, certainly this is something where we have to pay attention and we have to work with some Chinese player in order, okay, to leverage this situation.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

Well, thank you. Got a good idea at a, I suppose, group level of how things are going. Maybe we can dive into some of the end markets. Automotive in particular, clearly, in the news at the moment. Starting in terms of where we are in the cycle, I mean, how would you frame, sort of, the robustness of demand from automotive? You know, any change in order rates or behavior from those customers relative to what we've been seeing?

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

No, because the carmakers are executing their transformation. More electrification is a, let's say, well-known transformation. There is progressively the change of architecture, the famous software-defined vehicle, okay, and the management by domain in order also to save some copper, let's say, in the car. This is going on. Situation improving, most likely, okay, some carmaker that during the shortage came back, okay, to some subsystem old-fashioned, they will again introduce, okay, some subsystem improve, so means with more semiconductor. This, okay, is based on a consensus of production vehicles, okay, about 83, 85 million vehicles. Today, what we see on the market is this happening, okay?

Production at this level, let's say, and the demand on our components, to enable, okay, both transformation, change of architecture, and coming back to new feature introduction. Of course, we monitor, as everybody, the end market, and we know that, lead time, okay, for car, for new car is improving, but this is basically not totally a surprise.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

Okay. I've given you 15 minutes or so to warm up. Let's get to the big topic from the last last week or so. One of your big customers in automotive, in silicon carbide, Tesla, said they're gonna reduce their need for silicon carbide in the next generation by 75%. That's a big headline number. I know you can't say too much about what specific customers are doing. Perhaps you can frame it with your perspective on, you know, the roadmap for the industry in terms of how, you know, carmakers move from selling relatively high-end, at least outside of China, shall we say, relatively high-end vehicles, electric vehicles, and how do we get down to the mass market? What is the role for silicon carbide?

What's the role for silicon IGBTs still, as we try and move down to lower price points?

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Maybe the okay, I can answer, okay, specifically about this customer, but let's think about power, okay, overall. Well, there is clearly a major acceleration of power solution, let's say, spread in the market, driven by this electrification of the mobility and the decarbonization of the industry, with energy renewable and here, okay, I can list many application, okay? Clearly inverters, onboard chargers. Micro inverter for residential. Inverter for, let's say, let's say base station for a wind farm or, let's say solar farm. Motor control, okay, of the industry and so on. All this solution, power solution will call for what?

They will call for the best trade-off between a device which is capable, okay, to power switch high power at a high frequency, and definitively the cost of the solution. That the reason why, okay, if you remember well, I think we share this chart as a Capital Markets Day, that, okay, you have a curve where you have the power switch and you have the frequency, and you have the landscape of the power solution, which is a mix between silicon carbide, GaN, and IGBTs, and you have a MOSFET high voltage. This doesn't change, and it is based on this that we have built our $20 billion ambition, out of which, let's say the power will represent, okay, the number we share.

Out of which the silicon carbide will represent more than $1 billion in 2023, $2 billion in 2025, achieving $20 billion, so 10% of our revenue, and going, okay, to what we save around $5 billion in 2030 or below 2030. This doesn't change, okay? It's not because last week my friend Colin, okay, made this announcement, that this change our path. This I would like to repeat. Okay, this mix and match, let's say, strategy for an application is something we know perfectly, okay? Our number remain exactly the same. Saying that, to be more specific on the mobility.

Well, it is clear that I would like to confirm again that when you want to run electrical engine on a battery at a higher voltage possible, and switching the power at a higher frequency, the solution is a silicon carbide. Period. Then, you have also other implication about how you dissipate, let's say the hot of the electronics and the overall cost of ownership of the solution. On top of that, the silicon carbide has many cost driver down. Wafer size conversion, new technology, whatever is a new technology. For us, the SmartSiC as an example. The scaling, definitively, when you run fabs at 10k or 20k wafer per week is not the same things when you run fab at 3k wafer per week.

Scaling, wafer size conversion, technology improvement are cost driver down of the SiC. More and more, the silicon carbide will offer competitive cost of ownership versus IGBT. Because the IGBT today is either on mature 12-inch 8-inch or on 12-inch. Going more on that asymptote in term of cost. However, you cannot prevent engineering, okay, to say, "I can set up an optimum, mixing and matching the technology." Today on car, as an example, there is a car where you have the first inverter based on silicon carbide and the second inverter based on IGBT. Is not optimum because, okay, the mileage is shorter, but, okay, the overall cost of the solution is acceptable.

I cannot prevent that brilliant engineering say, "Okay, I want to make this mix and match inside the inverter." Okay, fair enough, after you have some technical challenge that must be solved. As example, the driver, the driver would drive, IGBT-based or a SiC-based is not the same. Here you need to have a universal driver, which is not so easy, technically. You have other technical challenge, definitively. Yes, okay, certainly this solution, okay, will happen. Also it's a, it's a flexible solution. Imagine in case of shortage, you have a shortage of silicon carbide MOSFET. You have a better supply on IGBT. Okay, you can make this mix and match with lower performances, at least, okay, your car is running. More comment than that, okay, I have not.

I think it's an engineering activity that will land certainly on the solution, but it is part of the overall power strategy where you will mix GaN, SiC, and IGBT in order to offer the best trade-off when you need the best trade-off in term of performance, power switch, frequency, and the cost of ownership.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

I mean, to hear you answer it that way, it feels to me like, you know, while we in the financial community may have been a bit surprised at some of the headline numbers from Tesla a couple of weeks ago, from your point of view, sitting within the industry, speaking to OEM partners, tier ones, this is something that has already been on the roadmap for some time, and it's all consistent from your perspective.

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Exactly. Yeah.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

When you talk about this idea of mix and match, is that something that's almost going to be I don't know, for lack of a better word, sort of pin compatible? They sort of drop in, drop out, or more, much more complicated than that?

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

No. Is. After, okay, you can drive it certainly by software. It's more complicated in the hardware, okay? The hardware, I repeat, okay, you need to have a power driver which is universal versus an IGBT or a SiC MOSFET. If you find a way, after you can drive it by software. That the reason why this solution is maybe interesting for flexibility.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

I suppose, while we're on that topic, how are you feeling about gallium nitride now? It's clearly, you know, earlier in terms of its maturation and adoption curve, but it feels like there's perhaps a blurring as to where that solution may ultimately sit within the automotive space.

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Again, it's a interesting animal because, okay, in GaN, you can address basically, again, the three market we want to address is power management in personal electronics, like, okay, chargers, fast charger. On any operated battery-based tool, okay? If you want to have a fast charger and a smaller charger, the GaN device, okay, is really good. At ST today, we are already this business, okay? We are using TSMC technology, and we are in competition with a well-known company called GaN Systems. We are a competitor of GaN Systems, and we tackle this market. More interesting for us is automotive and industrial market.

Because the GaN has interesting, let's say, capability is to switch power at a higher frequencies than the silicon carbide, but lower power. The second interest of the GaN is could be bidirectional. For on-board charger, it will be certainly very interesting when you want, okay, to give back, okay, the energy you have stored your battery, whatever is the battery. Could be a battery on a vehicle, but could be a battery that you use to store the energy you have from your solar panel, as an example, okay? For the GaN, everywhere you will have a charger of battery with a battery management system where you need to load fast the battery and to be bidirectional is an interesting solution.

ST to address this market, that the reason why, we have done a few years ago a small acquisition with Exagan, where people have a deep knowhow of the critical process step of this technology, the epitaxy. Good skill engineers in the southwest of France, Toulouse. We are developing our own technology, our own solution in cooperation with Soitec. Our strategic plan, as we have always shared, is based on the first industrialization line we have set up in Tours for GaN. We envisage to build eight-inch fab in Tours to address this market. This is our ambition, and GaN will contribute to the revenue of ST significantly, but beyond the $20 billion ambition of 2025.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

If we could go back to silicon carbide and sort of think about the competitive dynamics. You at ST have had an early lead. You've sort of accelerated away $700 million of revenue last year. You're now saying more than $1 billion this year. There's lots of companies out there trying to chase you down. Some are closer than others in terms of that race. I'd just be interested in how you would frame the competitive dynamics at the moment and, you know, how you feel about, you know, your wins and losses as we look out to the future.

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Well, you know, we at ST, we have decided to set up our communication based on KPI, which are very clear, is revenue. Now we give an indication, okay, for the year. We give an indication at two year and then at five years. Revenue. To sustain, okay, we are communicating the number of programs and customer, okay, that award us. On automotive and industrial, because we will never, okay, do on consumer, because generally on consumer, you have multi-source, you don't know exactly what you will do. On automotive, industrial, okay, when you have your funnel of opportunities awarded, okay, you know, okay, quite accurately how many revenue it will generate.

That's the reason why, first of all, we confirm and we have always said we want to stick with a sustainable and profitable 30% market share. Looking at the market dynamic overall, this should translate in above $1.2 billion in 2025, and basically $5 billion before 2030. We have many other opportunities. We have set up a manufacturing strategy consistent with this plan. Today, if we encompass Singapore as a wafer fab, Catania, existing Catania, and the new Catania, which is integrated with our raw material factory that we are building, all this infrastructure and the related backend and module maker can enable this business plan. For us now, we start to question ourself about to go beyond $5 billion, so between $5 to 10 billion.

Here I have to say there is one important consideration in China, because China will be one of the main customer of silicon carbide-based solution. For sure, because of the current, let's say, geopolitical situation, it will be challenging to not produce something in China. This is something that ST is considering very seriously in order to boost our current business plan. After, we have also, let's say, option and flexibility to continuously increase our capability in Catania. We have space available. It is our competence center. We have agreement with local university for talent and so on and so forth. We are executing our plan. Competition is healthy.

It is a booster for us to introduce our roadmap of technology. Three in production, four in production this year, then the five still planar, but boosted by, and the four by SmartSiC. When we will introduce the 6th generation, we will change architecture, and this we are working on. We will convert into a 100 mm, and we are installing, okay, our own raw material substrate fabrication. We are executing our plan. Well, after, again, the competition is LC is a good booster.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

You mentioned the, sort of the architectural roadmap. When you talk about, is it 6th-gen? You say it's a new architecture.

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Yeah.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

You don't specifically say trench-

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

No

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

... in the way that many in the industry are talking about trench. Is it?

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Trench. No. Is why? I don't want my competitor to understand what I am doing, what we are doing as R&D and technology. For sure, it will not be only trench.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

Okay. You also mentioned China there, sort of where you're talking about making chips in China for the Chinese market. What about the local Chinese sort of analog and power chip guys who have... They're relatively young, but they certainly have big ambition in this space. Do you see them as sort of credible competitors in time?

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

No, we have, of course, we have to respect, okay, as a basic principle, okay, China or any player, also in America. Well, you see now you have Microchip coming in. Okay, certainly Coherent is coming in as well. But it's a difficult technology definitively because the reliabilities, emission profile, automotive and industrial is quite challenging, and the failure mechanism are really different than the silicon. Today in China, we see raw material vendors, clearly. We tested them, okay, and they are providing good quality substrate. We don't see yet, okay, device maker, except for diodes. For MOSFET, okay, most likely could come.

That the reason why, okay, we consider adequate at a certain moment, to make some strategic decision, okay, to partner, okay, in China and enable, okay, some production capacity to address a market which will be, let's say, 40% of the total silicon carbide market. Today, China, in term of electrical car, electrical mobility, charging station, again, solar farm, okay, solar panel, is accelerating like hell. This is a market that ST, okay, doesn't want to be out. We want to lead this market.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

Okay, perhaps if we can switch gears and look at some of the other divisions. Analog MEMS and sensors and imaging in particular. In some of your opening comments.

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Yeah

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

... you referred to the change in business this year, some revenue pressure for a key customer in the second half, but not necessarily in terms of gross margin. Any additional sort of color you can provide as to sort of what is happening there in terms of the mix? Perhaps as we look beyond the 2023 cycle into 2024 and 2025, is there still innovation to come, in particular for imaging? You know, do we, you know, are we finally getting to the point where we can drop the whole thing beneath the screen? You know, what kind of things can you anticipate?

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Oh, yeah. I repeat what I have always candidly said, okay. We have a perfect visibility of what will happen, okay, linked to the volume of the phone sold for the next three years. We are working in intimacy, okay, with our customers for the solution that will enable customer differentiation and customer request beyond. I guess everybody understood that for this device, I cannot absolutely comment any detail, okay? Because it's very, very sensitive. Again, today the really the relation we have with this customer is very well-balanced between transaction and R&D, okay? I know exactly how to drive imager. Then saying that, what is interesting for imager is the diversification. Of course, we see some diversification in the Android camp.

There is other smartphone maker, okay, asking for a Face ID, let's say solution, or any type of light solution. More and more, okay, car makers, okay, for inside the car to monitor the driver. You need to have solution based on kind of face recognition because you need to okay to detect if the driver is in condition to drive. This is important, let's say, market for imager for the next three years. Beyond that, I cannot disclose too much because it is also related to the innovation we are doing with our main customers.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

Okay, understood. just got a couple on to the financial side of things, and then perhaps we can open it up to questions in the time that we've got left. You've given quite clear gross margin guidance for the Q1. You still sounded reasonably optimistic into the H2 of the year. you know, what are the key sort of puts and takes in terms of where we may end up in terms of gross margin for this year?

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Well, you know, we guide 48, okay, for Q1, okay. Well, I am not specifically anxious. I think we will deliver it clearly. I think, okay, I feel confident on the dynamic we share with you a few weeks ago that on Q2 will be very similar. Then, on Q3, we will have to pay the ramp-up of Agrate. That will be no more in the start-up cost. We'll be, let's say, on manufacturing mode. Yes, okay, waiting for the critical mass, Agrate will not contribute positively to the gross margin at an average. Yes, in H2, we will have, let's say, a lower gross margin versus H1 because of Agrate.

Well, after, it's not a secret that the manufacturing input costs are under pressure, okay, with energy and some inflation. Thanks to Crolles growing in this year, okay, we'll improve the productivity. We have also other opportunity improvement. We will increase our volume because at either at the midpoint of the range we have given or at the upper range, we will have some scaling effect that will mitigate the productivity. We consider the price will be neutral. That's the reason why, okay, I confirm that connected to the range of revenue we have given, so EUR 16.8 to 17.8 billion, we will deliver above 47% gross margin.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

Okay, that's great. I've got a long list of questions I could go for ages. In the interest of being polite to our audience, does anyone have any questions in the room? Yeah, perhaps far as out on the end.

Speaker 3

Hi. Just on the AMS, you mentioned you have perfect visibility for the next three years. When you say visibility, are you talking about, you know, turnover? Are you talking about what programs are on and you hope to sort of be designed in? Are we talking about proliferation beyond the one device that is 220 million devices a year or so? Are you looking to sort of move away or add outside the sort of main program?

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Well, the three-year, sorry. The three-year visibility is design win and what we call engaged programs, which can enable us to elaborate an accurate S&OP. This is what the reason why I say we have this three-year visibility, okay? Beyond that, okay, there is some disruption on which we are working and on which soon, when we will enter in the famous three years, there is some milestone. When this milestone are positively passed, okay, after it's granted. This is the way, okay, we are working.

I confirm that I have a pretty decent sales plan and operating plan connected to the volume of phone that will be sold, but also PC and tablets and accessories that for the time being, okay, is let's say reliable, okay? This is what I am saying.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

Other questions in the room? Amit?

Speaker 3

Jean-Marc, could you comment specifically around microcontrollers and how do you see your confidence in levels of microcontrollers within distribution inventory levels there? Back in 2018, I think that was what surprised us with the changes in microcontrollers.

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

You have a good memory. Today, microcontroller, there is a many dynamics. It is clear if we speak about a mainstream microcontroller, 8-bit or 32-bit, addressing consumer application, whatever is a pure consumer or what we call a consumer industrial. So, let's say, white goods or, battery-operated tools for consumer. We are monitoring, clearly the dynamic because, okay, we see some inventory increase, but we control it. Okay. Clearly, okay, we control it. We control the POS, we control the POP. For sure, okay, we are given more freedom, in the way, the distributor on put orders, so means the flexibility to cancel it beyond, the lead time of the manufacturing. That is business as usual.

I have to say, on this part of the market, we are coming back to a pretty decent lead time, inventory turn at distribution, which enables the distributor to make their business, okay? Means flexibility, take short-term order and so on and so forth. There is microcontroller for industrial, so high-performance microcontroller, 40 nm. Okay. Here, the situation is very similar in automotive. Still long lead time, okay, still some capacity limitation and sometimes shortage and sometimes, okay, allocation. After, okay, you have ultra-low power microcontroller, okay, connected device with security and so on. More, let's say, application-specific device. Here, okay, the demand is the demand is solid. More in secure microcontroller, there is no specific comment.

Microcontroller is exactly the image of the market. Everywhere you have a microcontroller addressing the industrial market B2B, or addressing an application which is application-specific with features, so security, artificial intelligence, connectivity, the market is solid and or strong. Everywhere you are on consumer, you are coming back to a normal situation.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

Anthony, do you have a question?

Speaker 3

Yeah. I was just wondering. Sorry. Should I do it with microphone? Yeah. Yeah. I was just wondering on two elements. Price, there is some carryover from simple calculation, so your guidance assumes some pricing decline in the second half. When we look at mix, last year was phenomenal in terms of mix driving revenues. I think it was, like, 13%. What drove that? Was there anything one-off in nature in that? How do we think about, you know, when you talk about long-term guidance of top line, how does mix contribute in, you know, going forward? Is any of that being brought forward in programs as-

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

No. What is happening on the mix is consistent, sorry, with the strategy we have set up in 2018 and 2019, where we really want to focus on the smart, let's say, mobility and smart industry. I agree with you that the post-COVID period has certainly accelerated this dynamic and strategy with us. That the reason why I mentioned it, that at the midpoint of the indication of 2023, automotive and industrial market will represent 70% of this. This was anticipated only to arrive in 2025, but here we have clearly an acceleration. It is very beneficial for the mix, definitively. After it's inside the verticals itself.

Inside the vertical itself, it is clear that when you are on the, on the, let's say, the electrification, moving forward, mixing, okay, the customer we have versus the historical customer, it's positive and accretive for the gross margin in ST for silicon carbide and industrial customer coming in as well. Expanding ourself on different system like the battery management system, same. Going to a more advanced technology on the legacy of automotive, braking system, okay, door control, body control, moving from old-fashioned technology, okay, at 0.5 micron or 0.25 micron. Going forward to 110 nm, it's improving also the margin. There is two element. Element number one is the weight of automotive and industrial versus total revenue ST.

In fact, we are two years in advance. In each segment, you have also mixed benefits related to the introduction of our new technology and the new application. This, of course, okay, we have taken benefits in a good price environment last year. Again, we consider that the price environment will remain pretty decent. Why? Because overall competition landscape and manufacturing landscape and supply landscape is totally different, okay, a few years ago. We are entering an area where, again, I repeat, if you want to enable a car or industrial application, you have to invest in semiconductor, wafer fab at 300 mm or wide bandgap wafer fab. So it's $1.5 for each dollar of additional revenue. So it's a cost. It's you have depreciation.

Inflation is still there, okay? even if there is some small relaxation, but inflation is there. Labor cost, okay, in a certain extent, you do not increase the salary as you were increasing a few years ago. Productivity is still there, mitigating a lot, but you have ingredients that are pushing, okay, to continue to have a price environment which is based on the substance of what you are doing and not on speculation or offer versus demand.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

All right. Well, with that, we are out of time. Jean-Marc, on behalf of Citi, thank you very much for joining us today. Very much appreciated, your comments.

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Thank you for my voice. It's allergy.

Andrew Gardiner
Head of European Technology Equity Research, Citi

You made it.

Jean-Marc Chéry
President and CEO, STMicroelectronics

Thank you.

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