Veolia Environnement SA (EPA:VIE)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2020

Sep 30, 2020

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

Thank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to this conference call on Veolia's Q3 2020 results. I will present these results with Estelle Brachlianoff, our COO, Claude Laruelle, our CFO, and Olivier Brousse, our head of strategy. During this call, I will, of course, give you an update on our project to buy Suez. We will then present our very good Q3 results, which show the strong capabilities of our group to bounce back quickly. These very good Q3 results enable us to confirm our 2020 objective, which is a Q4 2020 performance equivalent to Q4 2019. We will then take all your questions. I am moving on slide five.

On October 6th, we acquired from Engie a 29.9% stake in Suez with the intention of launching a tender offer on Suez remaining share capital as quickly as possible in order to create the world champion for the green transformation. As I explained at the end of August, when we made our offer to Engie, this project to create the world champion for the green transformation is a unique opportunity because the climate emergency has never been more pressing and because the stimulus packages in Europe and elsewhere all focus on the environment. There is no more time for debating climate change. Now is the time for action, and quick action, in order to save our planet. This planned team up with Suez is a great answer to the environmental emergency by bringing timely solutions to all our clients.

The complementarity of our two groups is compelling in terms of assets, geographies, knowhow, technologies, human resources, and clients. Our values and corporate cultures are also very close. We want to carry out this project together with Suez teams, all of them who are all top quality professionals as are Veolia team, be they field operators, managers, heads of businesses, or Suez top management. As you know, the growth of service businesses relies on the diversity of talents, ideas, and competencies. From this point of view, the opportunity to combine Veolia and Suez will accelerate our development. Our strategic plans are also very much aligned. Sharing common resources will enable us to accelerate the execution of both group strategies and reach our objectives earlier. This combination will therefore be strongly value-creating for all stakeholders.

Our clients will benefit from a larger and more innovative offering, which will address their increasing needs. [Inaudible] The transaction is also very much accretive to EPS and value-creating for our shareholders. I move to slide six. Our project is progressing as planned. On July 31, Engie announced its intention to sell its minority stake in Suez. On August 30, we proposed to Engie to acquire a 29.9% stake of Suez. In other words, most of its stake. We have succeeded in this first step of the transaction and have acquired from Engie on October 6th, a 29.9% stake in Suez at EUR 18 per share. We began the preparatory antitrust work as soon as we announced our interest in Suez. This process is continuing and progressing normally.

We intend to pre-file to the antitrust authorities by the end of November. Meanwhile, the management of Suez has started a certain number of legal proceedings, which we are addressing with great determination, and we will succeed in these being done. They are not delaying the implementation of our project as the longest process is the antitrust approval, which we have begun and which is progressing normally. As I said, there is a place for everyone, without exception, in this project. Our intention is inclusive and designed to build a winning Veolia plus Suez by joining forces. We aim for our project to be accepted by Suez board of directors or by its shareholders. As soon as we have obtained this report, we will launch a voluntary tender offer to buy the remaining 70.1% of Suez shares. I move to slide seven. The financing of the transaction is secured.

On October 14th, we took advantage of very favorable market conditions and issued a EUR 2 billion hybrid bond split into two parts, EUR 850 million at 2.25% for four and a half years, and EUR 1.15 billion at 2.5% for eight and a half years. This issuance already enabled us to secure our investment grade rating. The financing of the total offer will come from a bridge loan, which will be refinanced by the proceeds of the antitrust asset divestments and complemented by an equity issue, which is targeted below 20% of the existing market value of Suez. This will enable us to keep the group's net debt EBITDA ratio at around three times and to bring significant EPS accretion. On slide eight now. At Veolia, we are convinced that this project is value-creating for all stakeholders.

It is good for our shareholders, our clients, the planet, the communities in which we operate, and good for the employees of both groups. I am certain that all together we will quickly achieve our ambition of becoming the world champion for the green transformation. On slide nine, let's now move to our very strong Q3 results. I have to say that I am really very proud of Veolia's capacity to bounce back and by the extraordinary work and energy of all our employees, which made such a swift recovery possible. On slide 10, we have managed to adapt very quickly to this incredibly sudden and severe sanitary crisis. As you can see, we were negatively impacted by the crisis for only three months, from March through May, and we recovered our 2019 global activity rate as early as Q3 with an even higher level of profitability.

Our Q3 revenue reached 99.9% of Q3 2019 at constant scope and perimeter. Our published revenue represents 97.7% of the Q3 2019, as Forex and the divestment of our municipal energy assets in the U.S. in late 2019 impacted revenue by 2.1%. EBITDA and current EBIT are above Q3 2019. Q3 EBITDA reached 102.5% of Q3 2019 levels at constant scope and Forex, and 100.1% at current. We have, therefore, completely compensated for COVID effects, Forex, and scope. Q3 current EBIT reached 104.3% of Q3 2019 at constant scope and Forex, and 100.3% at current. We have, of course, benefited from the strong resilience of most of our businesses. The recovery of the most impacted activities began in June and was then confirmed and amplified throughout the third quarter.

Our field teams have been particularly reactive and efficient. The additional cost-cutting program, which we quickly launched in late March, called Recover & Adapt, has perfectly fulfilled its objectives. In total, EUR 395 million of savings have been achieved in the first nine months, including EUR 195 million from our recurring efficiency program and EUR 200 million from the additional Recover & Adapt plan. In order to secure our dynamic growth path for the months and years ahead, we have chosen to maintain all our development and innovation projects. These projects will fuel the future growth of the group in 2021 and beyond. These very good results allow us to confirm our guidance, which is Q4 performance equivalent to Q4 2019. On slide 11, you can see our detailed quarterly figures for 2020.

They show you how quickly we were able to recover with Q3 2020 revenue at the level of Q3 2019, EBITDA up 2.5%, current EBIT up 4.3%, and current net income up 6.2% at current scope and ForEx. For the net income, + 10.6% at constant scope and ForEx to EUR 142 million. Moving now to slide 12. As I mentioned earlier, we have decided to maintain our growth and innovation projects in order to consolidate our rebounds and to secure our growth next year. Our sales team in the field have maintained a strong level of commercial activity despite the sanitary crisis. No project has been cancelled and very few delayed. We have thus concluded several transactions in Central and Eastern Europe, mainly in energy. We have pursued our development in hazardous waste in Asia, with four plants under commissioning in China and one in Singapore.

We have also boosted our investments in recycling. We have accelerated in a very promising activity, the recycling of lithium batteries, by partnering with Solvay. We have won a BOT for recycled PET plastics with Mitsui and 7-Eleven in Japan. We expect from that annual revenue of EUR 40 million as of 2024 for a 20-year period. Finally, in terms of innovation, we are progressing in key strategic areas such as the green transition of agriculture or the digitalizations of our activities. I now hand over to Estelle Brachlianoff, who will give you details on the specific dynamics of our main activities and our achievements in terms of efficiency. Estelle, the floor is yours.

Estelle Brachlianoff
COO, Veolia

Thank you, Antoine. I'm extremely happy about our Q3 operational results, which are ahead of 2019 performance, both in EBITDA and EBITA. It means we've managed to compensate both the COVID impact and the sale of our district energy business in the U.S. in our results in only a matter of months. There is only one recipe for this, back to essentials and strong and quick adaptation. Back to what's essential means maintaining all our services for our customer while ensuring the safety of our employees, as well as focusing on margin and cash. Let me emphasize that the sales opportunity doesn't change this focusing in any way. The strong and quick adaptation, our cost-cutting has been doubled this year to EUR 500 million, which is an unprecedented performance for Veolia.

We've designed and launched our Recover & Adapt plan early in April and already delivered 80% of the annual target while delivering on our annual efficiency plan as planned. You can understand why I'm so pleased with this performance and our team's ability to adapt. Beyond this quarter, some of this transformation, as Antoine mentioned, is here to stay and will enable us to deal with the second wave of the virus. I'm thinking, of course, of many digital tools whose usage has seen a massive boost in the last few months. We now, just to give you one example, have 33 Hubgrades, which monitor live operational and on-premise performance of our customer's assets around the world. Live data combined with artificial intelligence help us to deliver efficiency and productivity, thanks to those Hubgrades.

It can also be converted into remote control if needed, which you understand how it can be so important nowadays. Our Customer Hub has helped us enormously to share data with our customers on a daily basis as well. In a nutshell, the very good results of Veolia in the third quarter show that we are able to adapt quickly and strongly. I would like now to walk you through our various activities and their bouncing back in the last few months, beginning at municipal water on slide 14. Volumes were very strong, except in a few tourist cities, and we enjoyed favourable weather conditions. Cash collection, which we monitor closely, has held up as well. On slide 15 now. The more impressive bouncing back has certainly been seen in our construction activities.

After almost a total halt in the spring, construction works have resumed, and we even have seen some catching up effect this summer in France. Our focus now is with the backlog for 2021 with newly elected French municipalities. Coming to solid waste now on slide 16. Our municipal collection and energy from waste have been quite resilient. On the other hand, commercial waste volumes were directly and almost immediately impacted by lockdown measures. You have a direct reading on the graph of reopening dates in France, Germany, and the U.K. with even some temporary destocking effect at the start of the summer. In September, we were still missing around 5%-10% of volumes, typically shops and restaurants, which have not reopened fully. Our adaptation measures as well as price increase have helped us to recover our pre-COVID economic performance. Moving now to hazardous waste on slide 17.

Our balanced portfolio of customers, which includes major pharmaceutical companies, for instance, has helped us navigate through the crisis, and we are pleased to see volumes available in Europe and the U.S. China is even running at a higher speed than we anticipated at the beginning of the year, and we have anticipated some new capacity opening. A very resilient business altogether when you consider it deals exclusively with industrial customers. On slide 18 now. As I mentioned earlier, our adaptation plan encapsulates increased savings as well as new ways of working. When it comes to cost-cutting, the year is really exceptional. Our initial efficiency plan of EUR 250 million has been confirmed and is delivered. We have doubled the target to EUR 500 million with an additional Recover & Adapt plan launched in early April to compensate for the COVID impact.

At the end of September, we are well on target with 80% already delivered. This is really a great achievement and a key pillar to our Q3 results. Looking ahead now on slide 19, I would like to share some color on the way I see Q4. The Southern Hemisphere is entering into summer. We can enjoy Australia, for instance, reopening progressively all commercial activities. North America is following pretty much the same trend as this summer. As far as Asia is concerned now, our activities are pretty much back to normal in most countries, which is quite impressive. In Africa and the Middle East, I'm pleased to see construction work at full speed and our order book being filled. The situation is quite different in Europe, obviously, with the very recent announcement in France and several European countries back into lockdown mode.

Although we don't have the full picture yet, we anticipate the impact to be overall much more limited than in the spring, with all activities fully working as normal. Water distribution as well as district heating are barely impacted at all. Industrial customers are keeping their production sites open, which means we are enjoying good volumes of hazardous waste. The same applies for construction works. We anticipate, though, that the volume of waste, both collected and treating on behalf of our tertiary and commercial customers, will be reduced to some degree. Moving on to slide 20 now. Mid-October, before the recent worsening in Europe, we were quite confident we would beat our guidance given the advance we had seen in our Q3 results and recovery.

Now, given those recent governmental measures, we should be able to compensate for the impact thanks to our mix of geographies and activities, which allows me to confirm our guidance and recover an operational performance in Q4 equivalent to that of Q4 2019. Beyond this year, our strategic choices and the activities we want to develop remain fully valid. Among which we have, of course, plastic recycling, hazardous waste, digitalization of water and heating services, as well as water technologies. I have to say, the last few months have confirmed those were absolutely the right choices and priorities of developments. With confirmed, if not reinforced, customer demand for those services and very good performance. The combination with Suez fits perfectly with this strategy, thanks to a very complementary geographical footprint outside France, undisputed synergies, and a similar approach to the future of our business.

Our determination to build a world champion for ecological transformation has never been stronger, as it's never been more needed and urgent to deploy solutions for our customers. Now I can hand over to you, Claude.

Claude Laruelle
CFO, Veolia

Thank you, Estelle, good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I'm on slide 22. It's a little bit special this time as we are going to review during the presentation Q3 numbers and nine months numbers. As Antoine told you at the beginning of the presentation, the very strong Q3 performance more than confirmed the June, July trend that we talked about during the last presentation. We have a revenue of EUR 6.3 billion in Q3, comparable with last year at constant scope and ForEx. A good operating leverage leading to an EBITDA of EUR 893 million, +2.5% at constant scope and ForEx, and EBIT at EUR 333 million, +4.3%. Leading to a current net income of EUR 142 million for Q3, +10.6%.

The net financial debt is well under control, with a reduction of more than EUR 700 million compared to Q3 last year, at EUR 11.7 billion, thanks to a good management of cash, collection, and CapEx. On the slide, you can also see the nine months figures, which of course are improving compared to H1, roughly reducing the negative trend of H1 by one-third for all metrics. Forex continues to impact our numbers for nine months, mostly in Central Europe and Latin. I'm now moving to slide 23, where you can clearly see the rebound of Q3 in revenue in almost all geographies. France has a sharp rebound in Q3, +0.8%, with a dry summer for French water and a lot of local tourism. French waste was also very strong, thanks to improved volumes and discipline on pricing.

The rest of Europe, +0.8%, is benefiting from a very resilient Central and Eastern Europe and waste recovery in many countries. The rest of the world, -6%, is mainly due to the disposal of the district heating in the U.S. for more than half of it. We will see later in the presentation, China remains well-oriented. Regarding construction in our global business segment, Q3 was a very good quarter, with a significant rebound for both SADE and VWT, and even much higher activity than last year. I'm on slide 24. How do we compare Q3 revenue this year with last year? You can see on the slide that the main effects are, first, ForEx for -1.7%. For Q3 is LATAM, U.S., and Central Europe, and a little bit of U.K.

Second, volumes with a slight -0.8%, better than expected as the economy has not fully recovered everywhere, and much better than H1. In H1, we had -6.1%. Third, pricing for +63% or +1% of revenue, which is really a significant marker since the beginning of the crisis, and the strong pricing discipline that we continue to apply to all our businesses. Moving to slide 25. You have the nine months revenue bridge with almost all the negative effects on volumes, for -EUR 862 million occurring in Q2, and the same pricing discipline throughout the nine months, as I mentioned for Q3, with a positive effect of EUR 206 million for nine months. I'm now on slide 26, where you can see a lot of improvements for waste activity in Q3.

Starting by recycled prices, they have improved during the year from -2.5% to -0.9% in Q3. This is due to the rebound of petrol prices due to the lack of volumes collected and sorted in Q2, and a good trend in Q3, and by the strong PET market, which is still driven by the increasing demand. Regarding waste volumes, as we told you, we were expecting a strong recovery in Q3, but not a full recovery in all geographies. In a nutshell, France and Asia are back to last year's volumes, whereas the U.K. and Pacific are in between 90%-98%, depending on the business lines, as Estelle told you. One last comment on hazardous waste. Europe is back to its nominal activity in China, and China is sharply growing, with two new facilities already commissioned in Jining and Changsha.

Globally, hazardous waste revenue increased by 3.8% in Q3. The pricing trend is very strong in Q3, plus 1.6%, thanks to the strong discipline of our commercial teams. Moving to slide 27. What are the main variation of Q3 EBITDA compared to last year? Forex and scope are entered like the revenue, respectively -1.6% and - 0.8%. What I'd like to highlight is a - EUR 2 million effect for volume and commercial in the middle of the bridge. This is a lack of volume impact, totally offset by the Recover & Adapt plan. This is exactly what we projected to do, compensate our lack of volumes by our Recover & Adapt plan that Estelle described earlier, to come back to our normalized level of performance.

Finally, our usual and continuous cost-cutting plan is contributing significantly to the performance of Q3 at EUR 64 million, almost twice the negative price squeeze of -EUR 34 million. On slide 28, you have the EBITDA bridge for nine months. The main difference with the previous one is the volume and commercial part at -EUR 432 million, which is mostly coming from the lockdown in Q2, as we explained, for the revenue bridge. The usual cost-cutting plans remain strong, with EUR 195 million achieved over the last nine months. I confirm that we are fully on track with our EUR 250 million goals for the year. What do we see in our different geographies? I'll start by France on Page 29, with French Water, as I said, with a dry summer and a hot August, leading to volume increase and a total of +0.8% year-to-date.

Same trend as H1 on tariff, plus 1.5% unchanged, and a good rebound on works and the lockdown. French Waste has also a strong Q3, with very good treatment volumes in both incineration and landfill, good C&I recovery, and less municipal collection due to contract selectivity. The pricing discipline in France continues to be very strong with + 2% year-to-date. The EBITDA of France in Q3 is slightly above last year, thanks to waste recovery, good water volumes, and our cost-cutting plan. Let's move to the rest of Europe on Slide 30. As I told you, Central Europe is very resilient and had a strong Q3, both on energy, thanks to good volumes and prices. As a reminder, in Q3, we sold mostly electricity in this region, and prices were hedged last year.

A good momentum on our water business with overall good volumes and tariff increases despite the lower consumption in Prague. Q3 in the U.K. is only slightly down, -1.3%, with strong PFI performance and a record high availability of 93%. As Estelle told you, C&I collection is still below last year at around 90% activity. Germany has recovered normal waste volumes in Q3, and Southern Europe, which is essentially energy activities in Spain and Italy, has recovered well. EBITDA of the segment is slightly above last year, thanks to the strong recovery, the resilience of Central Europe, and cost-cutting. Moving to Slide 31. What about the rest of the world? With a couple of highlights. In Asia, we have a contrasted situation with a strong recovery of water business in China, +50% increase of our hazardous waste revenue in China in Q3.

On the other side, lower works with low margin in Japan and Hong Kong, some contract evolution in Korea, and the disposal of low-tech waste collection business in Singapore. Thanks to the development of our hazardous waste business in China with higher margins, the Asia EBITDA is up 4% despite the drop of revenue. In Latin America, despite the crisis and the long lockdown, the region is growing in Q3 at constant ForEx, thanks to good tariff indexation in Argentina and Turkey, including hazardous waste management in Chile. North America is down -5.6% in Q3 at constant scope and ForEx. This is due to the lower refinery activities, leading to lower volumes on our recycling business. Municipal water is performing well as a very stable business.

The EBITDA of the segment is slightly down in Q3, linked to the volume drop in various geographies, almost compensated by our cost-cutting plan. I'm moving to Slide 32. We experienced a double-digit revenue increase in our construction activities in Q3, with a significant pickup since Q2 lockdown. For Veolia Water Technologies first, Q3 was strong, with our three main desalination projects in the Middle East performing very well. On top of that, we continue to sell cutting-edge and digital solutions with a total revenue of EUR 318 million for Technology & Delivery business line since the beginning of the year. For SADE, our network business was also marked with a very active August and a strong September, leading to a + 10.1% increase in revenue, but bookings remain a concern with a lack of tenders in September.

Hazardous waste is back to its 2019 revenue, with pricing offsetting a slight decrease in volumes due to the industry activity varying by sector. Thanks to the strong performance of construction and the recovery of hazardous waste, the EBITDA of this segment is sharply up in Q3. On Slide 33, you have the translation of EBITDA into EBIT. Depreciation and amortization is down, helped by the ForEx and improved asset management. We continue to have a negative -EUR 14 million at provision level, including higher insurance provision. In line with what we told you in July, the JV contribution is a little bit down after the lower contribution of our Chinese JVs in Q1 and Q2. I'm moving to Slide 34, where you have the detailed bridge from current EBIT to current net income.

Q3 was favorable for the cost of net financial debt, EUR 99 million compared to EUR 111 last year, with two main effects. The lower cost of our EUR debt, which is coming from the continuous refinancing of our debts, it is now at 2.19%. Regarding interest rates in foreign countries, they have declined a lot compared to the same period last year. For example, in the U.K., they have been divided by two. In the U.S., divided by three, and in Poland, divided by two as well. This is impacting positively the swap of our EUR debt into foreign currency. This leads to a current net income group share of EUR 149 million for nine months, EUR 7 million for H1, and EUR 142 million for Q3. Q3 being higher than Q3 last year by EUR 9 million. I am now on slide 35.

You can notice that the CapEx are well under control, especially the maintenance CapEx. As you can see, and as Antoine told you, we have maintained a significant level of discretionary CapEx with EUR 211 million for nine months to continue to fuel the growth for 2021. The nine-month free cash flow is impacted by the low EBITDA in Q2, but the working capital improved by EUR 79 million in Q3, despite the rebound in revenue, thanks to a strong focus on cash by all our management and financial teams. Compared to September last year, the net financial debt is down by EUR 742 million with two main reasons: the net financial divestiture of EUR 461 million and positive ForEx impact of EUR 244 million. On slide 36, you have the main variation of the net financial debt over the first nine months of the year with the effects I have just mentioned.

I'm on slide 37. We keep a very strong cash position and a robust balance sheet with EUR 9 billion of cash at the end of Q3. As you know, we have partially refinanced, as Antoine told you, the EUR 3.4 billion of Suez share acquisition by the issuance of a EUR 2 billion hybrid debt on October 14th. All refinancing for Q4 and Q1 2021 is done as we speak. On slide 38, as Antoine and Estelle told you, after this very good Q3, where our performance was above Q3 last year, we can confirm our guidance for Q4. Thank you for your attention.

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

Thank you, Claude. Ladies and gentlemen, we are now ready for the Q&A session. Please ask your questions.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we are now taking your questions.if you wish to ask a question please press zero one on your telephone keypad. We have a first question from Olivier Brandes Buye from Exane BNP Paribas.

Speaker 5

Yes. Good morning. I hope you can hear me well. Thank you for taking our questions this morning, congratulations on the good quarter. I have two questions, if I may. First one on your results. Yes, probably Q3 was better than expected, and you can reiterate your Q4 outlook despite the new restrictions linked to COVID-19. I was wondering if you could give us maybe already an initial feel, maybe just qualitatively, on what you think those trends might mean for 2021 and how you're thinking today of how 2021 might play out versus 2019, and how significantly you think you might be up, versus 2019, or if you think there's still some degree of caution that we should keep in mind. Then the second question is actually on the situation with Suez.

You have indicated that you would exercise your right to vote if it had to go that route, and you would need other Suez shareholders to actually vote on a potential replacement of the board of Suez. I'm wondering, today, I understand that you cannot use your voting rights, because of the litigation around the consultation of the Suez employees relating to the acquisition of the shares owned by Engie in Suez. How do you see the risk that actually that situation in terms of the litigation lingers on for many months and effectively prevents you from exercising your right to vote, if it would come down to a vote on the Suez board? That will be my two questions. Thank you.

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

Okay. Olivier, thank you first for your congratulations. For your first question, Claude will answer.

Claude Laruelle
CFO, Veolia

Yeah. Good morning, Olivier. Even if it's a little bit early to talk about 2021, given the very good Q3, and, despite the second wave of COVID in Europe, you know that we have confirmed our objective to recover our 2019 level of operational performance as early as Q4. There is no reason not to recover our full underlying performance in 2021 with the same trend next year, which will be comparable to 2019.

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

About your second question, Olivier, as I told at the beginning, the longest process for our project is antitrust approval. We will need between 12 and perhaps 18 months, but rather 12 months to get these approvals. All the other issues will be treated parallelly. There is no delay for the implementation of our project. Even the social dispute will be solved before we will get the approval of antitrust before 12 months. Other questions?

Olivier Brandes Buye
Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Emmanuel Turpin, from Societe Generale.

Emmanuel Turpin
Analyst, Societe Generale

Good morning, everybody. My first question would be a bit of a trading update, in addition to the comments you made earlier in the call. I would like to focus on waste volumes. Please, if you could just tell us what the status is on your main waste businesses regarding volumes. France was already good in Q3. There were other parts of the world where overall in Q3 volumes were down. What is the situation now? I'd love a comment also for your backlog activity, so essentially constructions on the likes of SADE. Where does the backlog stand today? My second question is on the short-term outlook, on considering the fact we've gone back into a lockdown or partial confinement in some geographies.

I'd love to do the exercise with you, if we may, to compare where we stand today versus where we stand at the start of wave one, where the name of the game was trying to estimate what the impact of a lockdown would be on your business. We know the answer to that in wave one. The situation is that today we've got a lockdown, which is less severe. The industry is at work, as you said. You've been able to adapt the way you are conducting your business. The question is, we don't know how long this new confinement is going to last. Imagining that it could last beyond the one month set by the authorities in France, for instance, what would be the likely impact on your business in terms of impact on EBITDA per extra week or extra month? Not an easy exercise.

I would appreciate your help. Lastly, rebounding on the answer by Claude on the previous question, you were kind enough to answer the question about full year 2021 outlook. I understand that you mentioned that there was no reason why full year 2021 wouldn't be at the level of full year 2019. I can't help feeling that it's a note below what I had in mind from previous statements that there was no reason why full year 2021 wouldn't be somewhere between full year 2019 and where full year 2021 should have been without the COVID. I'm wondering whether this is the message that you wanted to carry through, i.e., that it may not be as good as you would have thought a few weeks or a few months ago. Thank you very much.

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

Thank you, Emmanuel. Estelle will answer the first question about waste volume. She will also answer the second question about the second lockdown, which has nothing to do with the first one, as you will see. About your third question, you understand that for next year, 2021, we are very comfortable with what Claude told you. Of course, it is not impossible to do better, as usual. Estelle, please.

Estelle Brachlianoff
COO, Veolia

Thank you, Antoine. Good morning, Emmanuel. On your first question on waste, I guess I would go into the various bricks, which constitute the answer to that one. There is volume, price, and economical performance, which are the three bricks. If I start with price, we've been able to go on with price increase in Q3, as we've had in Q2 and Q1. Which I'm super happy about because given the circumstances, we haven't been chasing volume, but we've been going on with protecting price and even price increase. + 1.6% of price increase in Q3 in the price, in the quarter. With regards volume, which is the second part of the jigsaw, it's been decreasing by 2.6% in Q3, but I would like to compare it to the minus almost 15% we had seen in Q2. The bouncing back is really, really impressive.

It's not full and complete, as you've seen on the page 16, typically in C&I collection, where we have still 5%- 10% in some geographies missing. The third part of the jigsaw is the economical performance, where basically we've been able, despite this minus in volume, to recover our EBITDA level, thanks to our Recover & Adapt plan. In a nutshell, this part of the business has been impacted hard by the lockdown and the COVID has bounced back very sharply, although not fully yet, but has already fully recovered its economical performance, thanks to price increase and recovery. If you want me to dig a little bit into the volume bit, the - 2.6% in Q3, it's really a mixed picture. As Claude already highlighted in his presentation, on the plus side, we have a + 1% in France.

We have a plus something like almost 9% in China, in particular in hazardous waste, which is on the plus side. On the minus side, we are still lagging a bit behind in Pacific, in Q3, and a bit as well in our refinery recycling business in the U.S. The all-combined effect is a - 2.6%. Again, the bouncing back of the result has been quite impressive. In terms of the Wave two, how is Wave two, in Europe at least, different from Wave 1 in many ways? First things first, because everything in terms of our operation is still working as normal. All our plants are open, our maintenance activities are going on. The works and the construction works are still open, which is very different from the situation we were in the spring.

As you can see by just walking in the various cities in Europe, it's nothing to do with last April. Altogether, our activities are up and running almost as normal. The only impact we anticipate on our volume of our customer, so the volume of activities of our customer, pretty much only the commercial and tertiary ones. Yes, we anticipate there will be a little bit of a minus something, in just these commercial volumes, which impact mainly the commercial waste treatment and collection. Very big difference. Plus, we've already adapted a lot. Our teams have adapted to new ways of working, including with digital and remotely when it's needed. Wave Two should be very different from Wave One.

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

Outside Europe?

Estelle Brachlianoff
COO, Veolia

Outside Europe, you're right. That's why I said Europe, the Wave two is a little bit of different concept. I guess, there is a big part of the world where the question is more the reopening and the loosening of some restriction rather than the opposite way around. I'm thinking of Australia, for instance. In South America, it's progressively exiting the most difficult months we've seen precisely this summer. I guess outside Europe, we either stable compared to what we've seen the last three months or even improving in some geographies.

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

Thank you, Estelle. Next question.

Operator

The next question is from Juan Pablo Vadillo from Sero Capital.

Speaker 8

Hello. Thank you very much for the opportunity to make a question. Just to come back again to the transaction with Veolia. I think it's great, extending the offer to minorities. The question is more on the subsidiary level. I understand there is one subsidiary of Suez, which is Aguas Andinas, the largest water company in Chile. My understanding is that the Chilean regulation, the Securities Market Law there, mandates tag-along rights where there are changes in control, and here we're effectively seeing a change of control from Engie to you guys. How are you analyzing the legal front at the subsidiary level, like in the case like this? Thank you.

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

Excuse me, sir. The connection is not good. Could you please repeat your question?

Speaker 8

Sure. The question is just regarding the transaction with Suez. One of the Suez subsidiaries is Aguas Andinas in Chile. It is a public company that trades in the Chilean stock market. It is the largest water utility in the country. The Chilean regulation mandates tag-along rights. The Securities Market Law requires tag-along rights when there is a change in control. Here, effectively, we are going to see a change in control from Engie to you guys. The question is, how are you analyzing the legal front at this subsidiary level? Because we have only heard about extension to minorities at the higher level, not at the subsidiary level when there is a law there.

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

We call him back.

Yes. We understand with this bad connection that you are talking about the Chilean Suez water activities and how we analyze the new political decision about these activities.

Speaker 8

I'm asking about tag-along rights. Because there is a change in control, right? The Chilean subsidiary will go from Engie control to Veolia control. There is a change in control.

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

Okay, thank you.

Speaker 8

Tag-along rights, I'm asking about the tag-along rights.

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

Estelle will answer.

Estelle Brachlianoff
COO, Veolia

Thank you very much for your question. Just a first comment on the fact that amongst the very good assets Suez has in its portfolio, everybody talks a lot about Agbar in Spain, but it's right that the Chilean activities are very good as well. That's part of the key assets we've identified in the portfolio for certain, and I guess we like a lot. Altogether, although I'm not a specialist of the Chilean constitution so far, we could say that we have no intention of changing in any way, shape, or form the actual structure of Aguas Andinas, which is a subsidiary of a subsidiary of Agbar. The intention is to stay exactly as it is, which is a very embedded in Chilean type of activities, including some minority shareholders. Suez being a minority shareholder of it.

The idea is not to change this situation as it is today.

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

Thank you. Next question.

Operator

The next question is from Andrew Secchia from Berenberg.

Andrew Gollan
Analyst, Berenberg

Hi. Good morning. Can you hear me? Sorry, it's Andrew.

Estelle Brachlianoff
COO, Veolia

Yes.

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

Yes.

Andrew Gollan
Analyst, Berenberg

Oh, good. Sorry. Okay. Thanks very much for taking the question. Good morning, everyone. Just, you've obviously covered what you're seeing in terms of volume effects and the trends that we're seeing Q3 versus Q2. I'm just wondering if you could also maybe expand a bit on what you're seeing from your industrial clients in terms of decision making on new projects, in particular, say, on things like future industrial water projects, for example. Are you seeing any improvement in terms of those companies opening up their budgets again to spend money on new projects? Also maybe if you could perhaps give us a little insight into what sort of trends you're seeing across the different key sectors that you're addressing, such as oil and gas, pharmaceutical, power, food and beverages, et cetera, please.

Estelle Brachlianoff
COO, Veolia

Thank you for your question, Andrew. The short answer to that one is we are super happy with our industrial customer base altogether. I will expand a little bit on that could have been a question when the crisis has arisen, it has proven being super resilient, as you can see typically on the graph I've just shown on the hazardous waste business. If I expand a little bit on your first part of the question, which was on the backlog and the order book, we are very happy with it. We have seen in our Veolia Water Technologies activities, the order book is really as it was last year, is super full. We haven't seen any drops.

There was one month or two in the middle of the spring which were a little bit less, but it's been catching up since then. Industrial customers are still spending money as far as we can see, or intending to spend some money in infrastructure, such as water treatment, typically. In China, it's been even more than that. I guess we're even above the normal type of level of activity in the industrial customer base, with a bit of a catch-up effect of the construction work which were delayed first part of the year. No signal of worrying at all. In terms of the backlog, the only attention point Claude mentioned was more on the municipalities order book in France, which is a very specific point linked with the said activities. Apart from that, on the industrial side, everything is really good, and pretty much everywhere.

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

Next question.

Andrew Gollan
Analyst, Berenberg

Great. Thank you.

Operator

We have no further question at this time. Ladies and gentlemen l remind you that if you wish to ask a question please press zero one on your telephone keypad.[Inaudible] The next question is from Juan Rodriguez from Kepler.

Juan Rodriguez
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking our questions, and congratulations on the strong performance due to the current situation. A quick question on my side.

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

Thank you.

Juan Rodriguez
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Hello, can you hear me?

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

Yes. I just thank you.

Juan Rodriguez
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. It's on the dividend side. Given that there's better visibility on what would be your performance on the fourth quarter, if we could have a little bit more color on what you expect to be on the dividend level. Should we see 2019 reviewed level as a basis or maybe a return on a payout ratio, or a little bit more color on this side should be appreciated. Thank you.

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

Juan, it is a bit early to tell you about dividend and to give you some color about it. Of course, more the business will be good, more we will pay dividend, as you could imagine. That's for sure. It is a bit early November to tell you about that.

Juan Rodriguez
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay, excellent. One more thing. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Philippe Ourpatian from ODDO BHF.

Philippe Ourpatian
Analyst, ODDO BHF

Yes, good morning. My question is mainly linked to the Suez situation. In your last press conference, you mentioned that all the financing of the remaining 70% was secured by a group of banks. This morning, we have some information that one of the firms, which is shareholder of Suez, the CIAM Fund, was trying to organize an extraordinary general meeting starting from now in order to attend this meeting somewhere in January. My question was, if they are succeeding, means by forcing the Suez board to, one, cancel the foundation and two, allowing you to launch the takeover bid just after, as you mentioned, the 3rd of November, is this accelerated process change something about the antitrust inquiries?

It means that are we going to still continue to bet on the 12 months, or there is some possible change because your process will be accelerated by the fact that you will be in a position to launch the takeover bid? Many thanks.

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

Okay. It's not a question about the financing, but about the antitrust delay. With a supportive board of Suez on our project, we will be more comfortable, and we will be able to go probably quicker for solving the antitrust demands. It could cut a bit the delay. As you know, the global antitrust analysis and what they will say finally will take, I would say, at least 12 months from the beginning. It will be easier to go quicker with a board which will approve our project because we will get their help.

Philippe Ourpatian
Analyst, ODDO BHF

In fact, my question is there any change in terms of antitrust if you are launching the takeover bid? Are the antitrust going to move from a phase one to a phase two, just to be clear? Clear in terms of timing too.

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

Not at all. It will not change. As you know that, as we told in the press conference last Tuesday, that we hope that we will solve the problem in phase one, and we will do the rest in parallel.

Philippe Ourpatian
Analyst, ODDO BHF

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. We have no further question at this time. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press zero one on your telephone keypad.

Antoine Frérot
Chairman and CEO, Veolia

If there is no more question, we have to thank all of you for your presence on this call. Thank you for your interest for Veolia, and have a good day. Goodbye.