Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Vallourec Q2 and H1 2022 Results Conference. During the call, you will be in listen only mode. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions later on the call. This can be done by pressing zero one on your telephone keypad to register your question at any time. I am pleased to present our today's speakers, Philippe Guillemot, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, and Sascha Bibert, Chief Financial Officer. I will now hand over the call to Jérôme Friboulet, Head of Investor Relations. Sir, please go ahead.
Thank you, and thank you for joining us for Vallourec's Q2 and H1 2022 results presentation. I am Jérôme Friboulet, Head of Investor Relations. Joining me today to comment on those results, we have Philippe Guillemot, Chairman and CEO of Vallourec, and Sascha Bibert, Chief Financial Officer. This conference will be recorded and a replay will be available. It is also an audio webcast on our investor relations website, and the presentation slides are available for download. Before I hand over to Philippe Guillemot, I want to add that today's conference call contains forward-looking statements, and that future results may differ materially from statements or projections made on today's call. For your information, the forward-looking statements and risk factors that could affect those statements are referenced at the beginning of our slide presentation and are included in our universal registration document filed with the French financial market regulator, the AMF.
This presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. Now, I would like to give the floor to Philippe Guillemot.
Thank you, Jérôme. Good morning, everyone. In today's agenda, we will cover Vallourec's second quarter results, the outlook for the year as a whole, and give you an update on the progress of our New Vallourec transformation plan. First, let's take a quick look at the highlights of the second quarter. I am pleased to announce that we have delivered a solid Q2 performance, in particular with respect to EBITDA, which came in at EUR 160 million, representing a significant EUR 150 million rise on the previous quarter. This strong performance is driven by the positive trajectory of the worldwide tube business, especially in the U.S. Our North American business has benefited from a very favorable operating environment, thanks largely to the recovery in oil and gas drilling activity, and we have been able to more than offset inflationary effect with pricing initiatives.
This enabled the group to deliver strong overall performance in spite of the lower than expected contribution of the iron ore mine, which although operations have restarted, continues to operate below its full typical levels. At this stage in the year, we have sufficient visibility to quantify our EBITDA performance for the year as a whole, which we expect to land between EUR 650 million and EUR 750 million. With the mine operating on a normalized basis, we would have expected an EBITDA for the fiscal year of approximately EUR 1 billion. Free cash flow was impacted in H1 by the investment in inventory necessary to address the current buoyant market, but will be positive in the second half as working capital stabilizes at current levels and EBITDA continues to grow. We have also made progress on our New Vallourec transformation plan.
The closure process of the German plant has been launched with the attendant headcount and overhead reorganization measures at other European sites also underway. Finally, I have made several new appointments to our executive committee to ensure we have the right team in place to successfully drive this ambitious transformation. Now, I hand you over to Sascha to comment on our Q2 results.
Thank you, Philippe, and good morning, everybody. Q2 results came in as expected, and as I indicated already in our Q1 call, sales and EBITDA increased compared to prior year, as well as compared to the prior quarter. We expect this sequential improvement to continue throughout the year. Generally, the trends are very different for our tube business, which performs very well, especially in the U.S., and the mine on the other side, which continues to be challenged by waste storage limitations. Specifically for Q2, tube volumes are up 13.6% to 433,000 tons, particularly driven by the North American business. Group revenues are up disproportionately by 36% and over 50% for the tube business, which means a very strong increase in the average selling price of our tubes.
EBITDA was EUR 160 million in the second quarter, of which about EUR 34 million for the mine. As Philippe said, if adjusted for normal operations of the mine, i.e., using budgeted volumes and actual prices. The EBITDA would have been around EUR 240 million, i.e. more than a 60% year-on-year increase. Operating cash flow after CapEx, but before changes in working capital was positive. As we invested again into inventory, free cash flow was negative. In the second half, we expect free cash flow to turn positive, most likely towards the end of the year. Turning to page seven. Group revenues were impacted positively by FX and negatively by lower mine revenues. The same holds true for EBITDA.
However, here you should note in particular that our pricing initiatives are starting to pay off, as we're able to more than offset costs and inflation, therefore, increasing our margins. The last effect, called mix/other, includes various components. The pure mix effect is about three-quarters of the total. In addition to the information displayed in the EBITDA bridge, I want to highlight the following. SG&A costs have declined as a percentage of sales. Depreciation has increased slightly to EUR 49 million from EUR 35 million, with about half of the increase resulting from FX. Financial income was only an expense of EUR 8 million, somewhat supported by FX. The net interest expense embedded was -EUR 22 million. The most noteworthy development below EBITDA is the EUR 456 million expense in so-called asset disposal, restructuring, and other.
About three-quarters relate to provisions for the social plans and associated fees, including for France, Germany, and the UK. Please note that the related cash out is concentrated in 2024. Additionally, we have included non-recurring costs, including provisions for the mine and other impacts like accelerated depreciation related to the restructuring. Finally, there are also a number of asset disposals included, among them the sale of Vallourec Bearing Tubes. The year-on-year comparison of this line item is especially pronounced as we recorded the book gain for the sale of land in Germany in Q2 2021. A book gain for the sale of the remaining land can also be expected once the transaction is closed, as the book value of the remaining land is close to zero.
The cash-effective part of the total EUR 456 million will impact the cash flow statement disproportionately in 2024, say more than 55% of the total, another 25% in 2023, and about 20% in 2022. Moving on to cash flow on page eight. When thinking about cash generation going forward, keep two items in mind that are impacting this quarter. First, a cash effective EBITDA, which is still below the run rate we expect in the coming quarters. Second, a substantial increase in working capital up until end of Q2, almost exclusively a buildup of inventory. As a result, as cash-effective EBITDA continues to grow and the working capital development flattens, free cash flow will turn positive.
Specifically to the bridge on the slide, we start with EBITDA of EUR 160 million and then adjust for non-cash items, which in this quarter predominantly relate to provisions which were increased in prior quarters, however, now released in this quarter, given the favorable environment, leading to a positive effect in the P&L, but without cash implications. We then deduct interest and tax payments of EUR 49 million and EUR 17 million, respectively. The category other of EUR 32 million includes remaining cash out from adaptation measures from prior years and also cash out related to the mine incident. The major driver of the negative free cash flow is the increase in working capital of EUR 187 million, which is literally entirely driven by an increase of inventory.
As of June end, our inventory stood at close to EUR 1.5 billion, an increase of EUR 600 million since Q2 of last year. The inventory is roughly equally spread across our regions, with slightly lower values in distribution regions like the Middle East. To summarize once again, no cash is lost, but in contrast, we are generating margin-enhancing business. To do this, we invest into working capital, predominantly inventory. As the EBITDA grows and working capital growth starts to flatten, cash conversion will pick up, which we expect already in the second half of 2022. Further out, we will benefit again from main cash flows as well as from the uplift in recurring cash generation from the new Vallourec project. The cash out for restructuring measures will stop, which also burden the cash flow significantly. Page nine.
Net debt predominantly follows the trend of free cash flow. Asset disposals and others also include the payment into an escrow account related to the mine incident. End of June net debt stood at EUR 1.39 billion, with the majority of the gross debt having maturities in 2026 or 2027. No refinancing needs in the foreseeable future. Given our view on the cash flow development going forward, year-end net debt will likely be lower than at June end. Now I'm handing back to Philippe for the assumptions driving our full-year outlook.
Thank you, Sascha. Let's look at our assumptions for the remainder of the year, starting with the mine. As a reminder, in January 2022, following exceptionally heavy rainfall, some material from the waste pile associated with the operations at our Pau Branco mine slid into a nearby rainwater dam, causing it to overflow onto a nearby highway. Fortunately, there were no casualties, and the structure of the dam was not affected. However, as a result of this incident, the operations of the mine were temporarily suspended. At the beginning of May, we were able to partially restart operations using an alternative waste pile. Under these conditions, volumes extracted in the first half amounted to 1.1 million tons. In the second half, we now estimate a further 1.5 million tons, bringing the annual production to 2.6 million tons.
This is also the assumptions embedded in our EBITDA outlook. At the current time, we are in discussions with the local authorities to secure the use of other alternative waste piles to be able to continue production. We are, of course, also working as fast as possible on additional safeguarding measures, including drainage system reinforcement and stabilization of the soft soil layers, to return to normal operations using the original waste pile. Our present evaluation of the situation is that the full release of the waste pile and the normal resumption of operations will not occur before Q2 2023. Our tube activity continues to operate against a very positive backdrop. In North America, the highly favorable conditions of the first half appear set to continue into the second half in both price and volume terms within a market that remains very tight in terms of available supply.
In Europe, Africa, and Middle East, Asia, oil and gas volumes are expected to continue to modestly recover in the next few quarters, with any rise in cost fully passed through to customers. On the industry side, the outlook for volumes is neutral in a softer market. However, similar to our other segments, pricing power remains strong, and any cost inflation is expected to be fully offset by price increases. In South America, oil and gas volumes are expected to increase, leading to steady margin improvement throughout the year. On the industry side, the outlook for volumes is positive and trending in line with current levels. As in our other geographies, price increases continues to fully offset cost inflation. Based on these assumptions and trends, let us now take a look at our outlook for the year 2022 as a whole.
At this stage of the year, we are in a position to quantify our expectation for EBITDA, which is projected in a range between EUR 650 million and EUR 750 million. This is significantly above the 2021 level of EUR 492 million. Moreover, at the normalized main activity level, we estimate EBITDA would have been approximately EUR 1 billion in 2022. Now an update on where we are with the New Vallourec transformation plan. A quick reminder, this plan is twofold. First, reshaping the industrial footprint. Closing German operations, a process which will take place over 2 years and includes the sale of the land and buildings and relocation of all European rolling activity for oil and gas to Brazil. Streamlining of all the European operations with the consolidation of all threading activities in a single location at Aulnoye, France.
The closure of the Saint-Saulve heat treatment line and Bellshill threading line, and the disposal of Vallourec Bearing Tubes. One research and development center in Aulnoye will lead all group research and development activities. Second, streamlining overhead in line with our new manufacturing footprint to lower our break-even point and create a business that is free cash flow positive throughout the cycle by creating a leaner organization in all regions, reducing overhead and supply cost, notably through a further slimmed down headquarters, introducing process automation for all transactional processes, and consolidating support functions in shared service centers to leverage our scale. Adopting a more selective approach to research and development and IT projects with strict return on investment parameters. Implementing a decentralized business model with support functions located close to production sites.
Our objective for these actions is to generate EUR 330 million of recurring EBITDA and EUR 250 million in ongoing cash uplift by end of Q1 2024. I have also reinforced the executive committee with four further senior appointments. Enrico Schiappacasse as Senior Vice President, Group Strategy and Development, Nathalie Joannes as General Counsel, Ludovic Oster as Chief Human Resources Officer, and Pierre d'Archemont as Senior Vice President, South America. You can read a bit more about their background in the biography on this slide. The appointment of these new leaders completes the team which beyond January 2023 will be tasked to execute the New Vallourec transformation plan and make Vallourec a key player of the decarbonized economy. Let's take a look at what our new industrial footprint will look like in 2024.
Following the reorganization, our entire production facilities will be located in competitive and low cost production zones of the Americas and the Eastern Hemisphere, with a reduction in rolling capacity of 700 kilotons. This map shows our future rolling capacity by location. Please note that this capacity will not equate directly to our future sales tonnage, which will be consistent with our strategy of value over volume, as well as impacted by practical limiting factors such as steel plant capacity. By focusing production in these areas, we are also reducing our carbon footprint. On slide 19, we show an illustration of the P&L and cash flow profile of the implementation of the New Vallourec plan. On the left hand side, you can see the expected EBITDA trajectory towards our objective of generating a EUR 230 million recurring contribution.
The full run rate is expected to be achieved at the end of Q1 2024. On the right hand, we outline the indicative profile of the one-off cash flows. It shows that the bulk of the cash outflows are concentrated at the beginning of 2024. We expect to secure the cash inflows from items like sale of land and buildings, but also working capital in the earlier part of 2023. Consequently, the restructuring is not expected to impair liquidity. In sum, the New Vallourec plan will not only generate a significant recurring uplift to earnings and cash flow, but is also self-funded with minimal cash out over a short period of time. Before turning to questions, a few points to conclude this presentation. Vallourec is making progress.
Our Q2 results were strong and EBITDA up by EUR 150 million compared to Q1. We are confident at this stage in the year we can quantify our fiscal year 2022 outlook at EUR 650 million-EUR 750 million, despite the mine operating well below capacity. With the mine fully operational, we would expect EBITDA to be approximately EUR 1 billion. After the first half where we invested in inventory to satisfy robust demand, in the second half, free cash flow will be positive as working capital stabilizes at current levels and EBITDA continues to grow. Our tubes business continues to benefit from a highly favorable operating environment, notably with very strong pricing dynamics. Finally, our transition towards New Vallourec is fully on track with key actions already underway and the leadership team completed.
Thank you for your attention. Sascha and I are ready to take your questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press zero one on your telephone keypad. We already have a question from Jean-Luc Romain from CIC Market Solutions. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two actually. One is relating to the mine. My understanding was it could maybe operate up to 70% of normal capacity when it will restart. It looks more like 35%. When do you expect or what could be the ramp up to getting back to normal? That's the first question. My second question relates to a contract that Tenaris recently won in Brazil for good iron equipment. Usually this would have been Vallourec who would have won this kind of contract. Can you update us on the competitive situation between you and your main competitor relating to Petrobras, which we used to see as a monopoly for Vallourec?
Okay. Thank you for your questions. First, your question about the mine. I don't know what you did a re
Ladies and gentlemen, please hold the line while the speakers are going back. Ladies and gentlemen, the speaker line has been disconnected. Please hold the line while they're coming back. Dear speakers, we can hear you now.
Yeah. Okay. Thank you.
I start that from scratch?
No, on the questions. Sorry.
Okay. Where do I start back?
No, never mind.
Okay.
Jean-Luc Romain, from CIC Market Solutions.
It looks like we had some connection issues on our side. I'm going to repeat my answer to the mine. You made a quick math dividing, I assume, how much we will produce this year by the full capacity of the mine of 8.7 million tons. Your calculation obviously doesn't take into account the fact that we are not operating the mine for the full year over the 12 months. As you remember, we didn't operate the mine the first part of the year, and likely we may not operate it in the last part of the year, which is the assumptions embedded in our forecast for the fiscal year 2022. When we operate the mine, we are around 70% or slightly below.
Now, your question about when will we resume full production, as we said, not before Q2 2023. The reason why is because it takes time to recuperate the historical pile where the landslide happened. We are working on drainage systems. We are addressing the soft layer that we discover in this pile. Unless we want to be fully secure when we will resume full operation, obviously it takes a bit more time, but again, purpose is to start and start forever with a very obviously secure environment. That's what we are up to these days. As we mentioned, we are working on another temporary solution, but for the time being, we don't have the approval for this other temporary solution. It may come, but it's not the assumptions we have taken in our fiscal year EBITDA assumption for the year.
More to come later in the year. Yeah.
If I may finish then, but it's always goes to.
Yeah.
Please also note that the 1.5 million ton production assumption that we have embedded into the outlook is very much skewed to the beginning of Q3, i.e., by the end of July and August, and July is basically done. We have produced most of what we have assumed. The rest would then be upside if it comes. Back to you.
Okay. Thank you, Sascha. Again, keep in mind that our EBITDA forecast for the year is taking, I won't say conservative in terms of mind, but what we are sure about, okay? What we are really sure about. Which, by the way, reflect the fact that our tube business is overperforming. Now let's go back to your question on Tenaris, Brazil and Tenaris in Brazil. It's true that Tenaris got a significant share of the bid at a time where, as you remember, markets were depressed. Everybody was fighting for volume.
At that time, Vallourec decided not to dump prices to secure volume, even though, as you know very well, we have a unique position in Brazil, as we have a very strong localized operation to produce tubes for Tenaris. Since obviously there were there have been other bidding processes and discussions on new long-term agreements. Without giving you any indication of what will be the outcome, I just can tell you that we are obviously competitive, and we are expecting to have a strong position in this long-term agreement.
I don't know if Didier wants to complement my answer, but you should not read what has been announced by Tenaris as the fact that we are losing the significant market share in Brazil, in a country where we have a strong and performing operation. It's not. It should not be the reading.
Okay. Thank you. Well understood. Thank you for your answers.
Yes, we have another question from Kevin Roger from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning. Thanks for taking me.
Are we connected?
Yeah. Can you hear me?
Sorry, could you repeat the question, please?
Yeah, sorry. I did not start it. Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. The first one, sorry for that, but I come back on the mill. Because when you look at your metrics right now compared to what you said in Q1, it's completely different. When Jean-Luc did the calculation, if you took your capacity and you divide it by half, it's half your capacity of roughly speaking 4 million tons, you say 1.5, so you are running at a bit more than 30%. You said last time that it should be close to 70%, and you said that you would be able to be close to 100% after 3 months ramp-up period.
Now you basically delayed the production to 100% by almost a year. Can you give us a bit more color on what is happening in Brazil, if it's related to the authorities that do not want to give you the validation, et cetera. I was wondering if you can give us a bit more info on that side, please. The second one is related to the U.S. Environment in the U.S. is very supportive. I was wondering, do you see any welded capacity coming back? Do you see some players reopening welded capacity and that at a moment in time it will lead to potential price decline or price pressure in the country, please?
I go back to the mill. Again, if you divide the capacity by half, and you said 1.5 divided by 4.4. Again, as Sascha said, most of this 1.5 million tons will be produced between July and August. When we run, we run at 70%. When we are stopped, we are zero, that's for sure. What we are just saying to you is that we have a temporary waste pile that we are going to use to the end. This, the capacity of this temporary waste pile allow us to produce what we will produce during the year, which is 1.1 + 1.5, 2.6 million tons.
Again, we are working on another temporary solution, but for the time being, we have not yet the green light to use it. Anyway, in parallel, we work to recuperate the historical waste pile. Why it takes longer than what we said in our communication at the end of Q1? The reason is very simple. Since we have discovered that we have a layer of soft soil. This was not known at the time we communicated, because obviously, in the meantime, we have had ample time to do geological analysis of the content of the pile layer by layer. That's why it takes a bit longer. At the same time, as I said, and here we are fully aligned with the local Brazilian mine authorities and national mine authorities.
What we want to do is to do really something that will definitely. To fully secure our historical file. That, that's the one, it takes longer. I hope I've been clear on what's going on with the mine.
Yeah. Yeah, I can do something.
Okay.
Just to perfectly understand, it means that basically the mine will contribute to Q3 EBITDA. Based on what you see right now, the mine would be closed in Q4, if I will understand. If you do not have any other,
Exactly. You got it.
Okay.
The assumptions embedded in our forecast for you is exactly that one. We may have good news somewhere in the year, but I don't know, so I am not going to bet on it for the time being. Anyway, as our tube business is definitely performing very well, over-performing, I think it more than compensates this shortfall we have on the mine. Okay?
Okay.
As far as welded capacity is concerned, for the time being, we have no real indication that it's coming back. In fact, to reactivate this capacity, you need to recruit people. As you know, the job market in the U.S. is very difficult these days. So far, we have no indication that these capacities that were shut down during the low, long low of the last year have been reactivated. No indication that this may disturb the market. Okay?
Okay. Yep. Okay. Thanks a lot. Bye. Thanks.
Next question comes from Alan Spence from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hi, this is Alan Spence from Jefferies. Think there's a misunderstanding on the recording. I've got a couple questions, so I'll take them one at a time. First one is just around the guidance. What are you assuming in terms of the tubes volumes for the second half underpinning that?
Assumptions on tube volumes. Okay. I will let Sascha give you the precise answer.
Hey, I think it was Alan, if I'm not mistaken. In terms of volumes, I mean, we can speak about tonnage, or we can speak about sales revenues. Staying in terms of tonnage, we had 433 kilotons in Q2, which was a bit higher than the tonnage we had in Q1. Our expectation is that they will be once again higher sequentially in Q3 and Q4, and I would say markedly, combined with our price outlook that will also then impact positively the sales. Now I hand you back to Philippe or to myself for the follow-on questions.
That's perfect. Thank you. On the balance sheet, I appreciate your comment in the presentation that the debt is long dated and there's no need to refinance it. If I understand, the bond does become callable next summer, and at an 8.5% coupon is quite a large amount of interest out per year. Would you look to opportunistically refinance that in the next 12 to 18 months?
Alan, I would say that is an opportunity, it's an option, but nothing that we need to decide today. It's good to know that we have that option, but we'll just take it a bit further out.
Okay. Last one is just a clarification. If I heard correctly, I think you said the mine contributed EUR 34 million in EBITDA. Was that for the second quarter or for the first half? Was EUR 34 million the right number I heard?
I did say roughly EUR 34 million, indeed. It is a Q2 number, but to be honest, I think since in Q1 it didn't do anything, it doesn't make much of a difference.
Okay. Very clear. Thank you, guys.
Thanks, Alan.
Next question comes from Guillaume Delaby from Société Générale. Please go ahead, sir.
Yeah. Yes. Good morning. Two questions, if I may. First, I would like to thank you for the disclosure regarding the tube and the mine revenue and EBITDA. That's really useful, so thank you for that. Glad to see that in Q2, the mine was profitable. Two questions from my side. First, once again on the mine, sorry about that. On the 2.6 million ton, which are planned for 2022, what should be the proportion which will be sold externally? This is my first question. Versus what would be used internally. My second question is a broader question. If we compare this cycle to what has happened between 2006 and 2008, where basically Vallourec was generating a normalized EUR 1.5 billion EBITDA per annum.
If I'm listening to you, I get the impression that we might be back to this kind of normalized level by 2023, 2024. Could you maybe provide some comments or some color when comparing this cycle with this previous 2006, 2008 golden cycle? Thank you.
Hello, Guillaume. It's Sascha. I'll take your first one and then hand over to Philippe for the second one, i.e., comparing cycle today, possibly the future, with the past. With respect to the mine and your question of sales external, sales internal, maybe I can shortcut the answer a little bit and take also out the complexity. The EBITDA assumption that is commensurate with the 1.5 million ton 2H production is a low double-digit million EUR figure. Yeah. Maybe that gets you to the point directly. Otherwise, we don't expect to change much in terms of internal and external sales. Now, for the second one, I'm handing over to Philippe.
Yeah. Your question about how you should read the future trajectory of the group as far as EBITDA is concerned. Well, first, as you see, the mine at some point will resume full operation and we will be in capacity to extract the 8.7 million tons of capacity we have in the mine. As you know now that you have better visibility on how profitable the mine is, you can easily guess what will be the contribution of the mine at full capacity. That's one element. About the tube business. As with the New Vallourec, we are closing Germany and stopping, I would say, the losses that were associated with our German operation. You can easily guess that the future of Vallourec will be what?
Will be the sum of the U.S. market, which we consider will continue to be positive, at least for the next few quarters. Today it's definitely the case when you see, as I explained earlier, our pricing power, which is coming from the fact that there is more demand than capacity available on the market. As far as Brazil is concerned, I think Brazil is a very, has a huge potential. I think we have, you've seen the capacity map of the group. I think here we have a capacity which is used on the domestic market, which is a profitable market. You have obviously Brazil as a base to export, which will obviously be more competitive than Germany. We'll mechanically improve our profitability on the market we address from Brazil.
You have our Asian footprint, where again, we will be very strict on our value over volume discipline, and we will use that capacity on the markets where we can enjoy high profitability. It is clear that I think the embedded profitability and EBITDA of the tube business is likely to be higher than what we deliver right now. On top, obviously you have the streamlining of the organization, all the head count reduction we are doing as a consequence of the simplification of our footprint. Part of this EUR 230 million will flow in addition. Is the EUR 1 billion EBITDA something that we will consolidate as we go? My answer is yes.
Okay. Very clear. I turn it over.
Next question comes from James Winchester from Bank of America. Please go ahead, sir.
Brilliant. Morning. So most of mine have actually been answered. But one final one from me, please. In a kind of a hypothetical scenario where you need to ration volumes, at your German assets, you know, let's say over the next 18 months, due to the lack of gas. I guess firstly, you know, what is the likely impact? And secondly, you know, what are the routes you can take to actually alleviate this impact? Thank you. Okay. If I understood well, your question is about the potential impact of gas shortage. First, gas shortage is, yeah, only in Europe, so it may potentially impact our German operations and to some extent our French operations. As you remember, these are loss-making operations. If I am a bit, the less you produce, the less you use.
That's, I think one way to answer your question. Nevertheless, we look at it. We have ready plans right now in case we have less gas supply than what we need. Based on our estimation, I think this impact up to a certain level is not material and does not compromise at all our guidance for the year. Okay. Very clear. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press zero one on your telephone keypad to enter the queue for the question and answer session. We have another question from Baptiste Lebacq from Oddo BHF. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, everybody. A very quick question on the slide page 19, and the illustrative cash flow profile that you give us, regarding the restructuring. Clearly, if I understand very well, the chart, it means that in Q1, you should receive some cash inflows thanks to the disposals. That means that you are certainly in negotiating phase with potential buyers. Is it, let's say, a good reading? Clearly we should see an acceleration of the inflow regarding this disposal in coming quarters if you are able to register some cash inflows at the beginning of 2023.
Short answer, Baptiste, yes.
Thank you for the short answer.
You're welcome. Again, when you look at the cash flow profile of the New Vallourec plan, as you understood, there are cash in and cash out, which offset more or less each other. At the end, we are with this plan, able to generate an additional EUR 230 million EBITDA with no impact on our liquidity.
Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, one last reminder, if you wish to ask a question by phone, please press zero one on your telephone keypad to enter the queue for the question and answer session.
There's no more questions. Okay. Again, thank you very much. Again, our Q2 performance is just the illustration of the fact that Vallourec is back on a strong positive improvement of performance. When you see the guidance for the year, I think you understand that our tube business is overperforming compared to what we anticipated in Q1. The mine is obviously taking longer to be back at full production, but sooner or later will be. As you will see, we'll have obviously the nice combination of the two, which is obviously what we are working on very obviously in the next few months. Again, thank you very much. Hope to see you through more one-to-one discussions.
Thank you.