Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Befesa Third Quarter 2024 Results Conference call. I am Sergeant, the cross-call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and one on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Rafael Pérez. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning and welcome to the Third Quarter 2024 Results Conference call of Befesa. I am Rafael Pérez, CFO of Befesa. This morning, I am joined by our Group CEO, Asier Zarraonandia. Asier will start with an executive summary of the period, and then he will cover the business highlights for the steel dust, as well as aluminum salt slag recycling businesses. I will then review the financials by business. I will cover the evolution of commodity prices, our hedging program, and finally, cash flow and net debt. Asier will close this presentation providing an update on the outlook for the rest of 2024, how we see 2025, and an update or a growth plan. Finally, we will open the lines for the Q&A session. Before getting started, let me remind you that this conference call is being webcast live.
You can find the link to the webcast and the Third Quarter 2024 Results presentation on our website, www.befesa.com. Now, let me turn this call over to our CEO. Asier, please.
Thank you, Rafael. Moving to page five of the business highlights. Befesa has delivered a strong third quarter despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, which demonstrates the resiliency of our business model. Total adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter has been EUR 49 million, up 16% compared to the previous year, reflecting a strong year-on-year performance. For the nine-month period, adjusted EBITDA reached EUR 152 million, an increase of 11% compared to last year. Operating cash flows have increased by nearly 40% so far in the year, mainly driven by a strong cash conversion. For the performance in the third quarter, I would like to highlight the solid steel dust volume that we have recycled in our two main markets, Europe and the U.S., despite the challenge that the steel sector is suffering.
I would also like to highlight the strong performance of our salt slag recycling business, driven by the Hanover plant back to full operations and strong volume received from our customers. On the other hand, our secondary aluminum business has been impacted by a challenging automotive industry in Europe, characterized by weak demand and production of cars. I will elaborate later on all these aspects. On outlook, we expect full year 2024 Adjusted EBITDA to be between EUR 210 and EUR 215 million, within the previous guidance range that we provided in July of EUR 205 to EUR 235 million, which represents a growth of 15% to 18% year-on-year. We also expect leverage to be reduced from the current levels down to around three times by the end of the year.
For 2025, although it's still early to provide guidance, we are expecting a strong double-digit EBITDA growth and leverage to be reduced to around 2.5 by the end of the year. We are adjusting our business plan and capital allocation to focus on reducing the leverage and invest in ongoing approved expansion projects. As such, the expansion plan in China is stopped due to the current market conditions. Our growth Capex will focus on the refurbishment of Palmerton and the expansion of Bernburg, both low-risk projects from the execution, technology, and commercial point of view. Moving on to page six. Overall, our steel dust recycling business has delivered strong results in Europe and the U.S., which has been partially offset by the operation in the steel refining plant in the U.S.
In Europe, the steel sector is going through a challenging period, with steel production in Europe at the five-year low level, clearly impacted by the weak demand. Despite this challenging environment, we are getting a strong level of deliveries from our EAF steel customers, and we continue to run our plants at a very high capacity utilization, around 90%. Looking ahead for Q4, we have locked EAF volume, which will secure strong utilization of the plants across most of the markets. In the U.S., we must differentiate between the recycling and the refining businesses. In the steel dust recycling business, we are running the plants at around 70% utilization, similar to previous quarters. The measures that we have been taking and best practices that we have been applying to improve the recycling operation are on track and delivering good results, achieving higher EBITDA per ton.
The steel refining plant in the U.S. is in the final stage of the ramp-up and turnaround process, with a strong focus on cost reduction. This year, the unfavorable combination of low TCs and low premiums for special high-grade zinc is putting a special pressure on the business production, double-digit negative contribution in the full year 2024. In our ASEAN operation, the steel dust volume through was impacted by a strike in our Turkish plant during the third quarter. The strike is over, and we have secured strong volumes for Q4. In China, the two plants continue running at similar utilization levels than H1, impacted by a weak economy in general and very low EAF steel production. Moving on to page seven, business highlights for the aluminum salt slag recycling business.
In the aluminum business, we have delivered overall strong salt slag recycling performance, which has been partially offset by weak secondary aluminum metal margin. On salt slag, the strong volume has resulted in a very high capacity utilization of the plants, of around 90%, driven by the Hanover plant in Germany back to operation at full capacity. This strong operating result has been partially offset by lower FMV aluminum price. In our secondary aluminum segment, the main challenge has been the weak European automotive industry, which is affecting the demand for secondary aluminum. This is putting a lot of pressure in the aluminum metal margin, which is suffering compression compared to the levels of last year, caused by weak demand on secondary aluminum, coupled with difficult effects to aluminum scrap in the market. This, coupled with scheduled plant maintenance shutdowns, impacted volumes during the quarter.
Now, Rafael will explain the financials in more detail.
Thank you, Asier. Moving on to page nine, financial results of our steel dust segment. Steel dust delivered EUR 122 million of adjusted EBITDA in the third month of the year, which represents a 9% year-on-year improvement compared to 2023. Subsequently, EBITDA margin has improved from 17% to 20% in the period. The EUR 20 million EBITDA improvement has been driven by the following factors. The year-on-year impact from volume was flat, mainly due to slightly higher volumes in Europe and the US, compensated with lower volumes in Asia, as explained by Asier. Total plant utilization was around 70%, similar to last year. On price, overall positive EBITDA year-on-year impact of about EUR 27 million, with the main price components being EUR 3 million negative impact from lower zinc LME prices, down 3% in euros. This negative EBITDA impact from lower zinc LME prices was compensated with two positive EBITDA impacts.
Firstly, EUR 11 million positive impact from higher zinc hedging prices, EUR 97 per ton higher year-on-year on average. Secondly, EUR 19 million positive EBITDA from the favorable decrease in zinc treatment charges, which was set at $165 per ton in year 2024 versus $274 per ton in 2023. On cost others, Befesa's COG average price continued further normalization in the nine-month period of 2024 to levels below the 2022 average price, driving positive EBITDA impact. Operational improvements in the U.S. recycling operations also have delivered positive EBITDA contribution as well in the period. All these positive impacts have been partially offset by inflation and other effects, mainly attributable to the negative contribution from the zinc refining operations in the U.S., which is going through a turnaround plan, as Asier explained, with a strong focus on cost reduction and a double-digit negative contribution in the full year 2024.
Moving on to page ten, financial results of our aluminum segment. Aluminum salt slag delivered EUR 31 million of EBITDA in the nine-month period, which represents a 14% year-on-year decrease compared to the EUR 36 million achieved in 2023. The year-on-year EUR 5 million negative EBITDA development was mainly due to the lower aluminum metal margin, partially offset by lower energy prices. On volumes, overall slightly positive EBITDA year-on-year impact. Our recycled aluminum salt slag increased by 23% to 318,000 tons in the period, driven by the resumption of operations in the Hanover plant in the middle of 2023. Our secondary aluminum alloys production volumes increased by 2% to 128,000 tons. With these volumes, we operated our plants at a strong capacity utilization rate of about 90% in salt slag and 84% in secondary aluminum on average.
With regard to prices, overall negative EBITDA year-on-year impact of about EUR 9 million, mainly driven by the pressure aluminum metal margins versus the previous year, caused by a weak automotive industry in Europe, as explained by Asier. Aluminum FMV prices were 6% up, with an average of around EUR 2,327 per ton on average. The negative price effect was partially compensated with year-on-year lower operating costs, mainly through lower energy prices. Moving on to page 11, zinc prices and treatment charges. Regarding zinc prices LME, during the third quarter, zinc has been trading with some volatility over the marginal cost zinc IP, trading sideways in the range of $2,300-$3,100 per ton. Average Q3 zinc price LME has been $2,780 per ton. For the nine-month period, average has been $2,690 per ton, which is slightly below last year's average. On treatment charges, nothing new.
As we already mentioned, treatment charges for the zinc were settled in April at $165 per ton for the full year. This is around 40% or $109 per ton lower compared to the $274 in 2023, and it is positively impacting our results. As a reference, spot treatment charges in the market are trading in the negative zone, which very rarely happens. This shows the current supply-demand dynamics in the zinc market, characterized by reduced supply on zinc concentrates, which is making spot treatment charges to be negative. If this dynamic continues, annual treatment charges for next year 2025 should remain at a low level. Turning to page 12 on hedging, we have taken the opportunity of the volatility in the zinc price over the last months to extend our hedging book further beyond the first half of 2026.
The first half of 2026 is fully hedged, and the second half is hedged close to 50% of the volume. With this extension, our zinc hedge book covers close to 90% of 24 months of hedges in our books, at increasing hedging average prices of EUR 2,650 per ton in 2025 and 2026. This level of hedging represents an all-time high level of hedging for Befesa and will provide around EUR 20-EUR 25 million of incremental EBITDA in 2025, regardless of what happens with the zinc price. We continue to monitor the market closing volumes for the remaining 2026. Our hedging strategy remains unchanged and continues to be a key element of Befesa's business model, providing earnings visibility and predictability, lowering the impact from zinc price volatility. Turning to page 13 on Befesa's energy prices.
The page shows the evolution of the three energy sources that we have in Befesa: COG, natural gas, and electricity. With regards to COG price, which today represents around 60% of the total energy bill, the normalization that started in the second quarter of 2023 is continuing throughout 2024 to levels below 2022 average. Average COG price in the nine-month period is 25% lower compared to the same period of last year. This had a positive impact on our steel dust operations, as explained earlier in the bridge. Despite this positive trend, however, the average COG price so far in 2024 is still around 30% above the average levels from years 2019 and 2021. Regarding electricity, which today accounts for around 25% of the total energy expense, prices increased in Q3 by around 18% over the previous quarter, although it remains at low levels since 2019.
Gas prices stayed in line with the previous quarter, stable around the average level of 2021. Turning to page 14, the cash flow results. On the EBITDA to total cash flow bridge, starting with EUR 152 million of Adjusted EBITDA on the left and working to the right, working capital consumption was up by about EUR 37 million, in line with previous quarters, primarily driven by the usual first quarter seasonality and timing impact, and without cash consumption in the third quarter. We expect to recover most of the working capital outflow in Q4, as we have done in previous years. Taxes received in the nine-month period came in at EUR 4 million as a result of our final tax assessment of previous years, resulting in an operating cash flow of EUR 118 million, up 39% compared to last year.
Capex-wise, in the first nine months of the year, we have invested EUR 42 million in maintenance capex, EUR 23 million in growth capex, mainly related to the refurbishing of the Palmerton plant in Pennsylvania, and EUR 40 million in the 50% stake acquisition in Recytech. In summary, overall total capex have been EUR 105 million for the first nine months of the year. For the full year, we expect to invest a total capex of around EUR 120, of which EUR 45 million would be maintenance and EUR 75 for growth, including Recytech. Interest paid increased by 41% to EUR 29 million in the nine-month period, mainly driven by the year-on-year higher EURIBOR from 2.3% in 2023 to 4% applicable in 2024. Finally, a total dividend of EUR 29 million, equivalent to 73 cents per share, was paid to shareholders in the third quarter.
After funding working capital, interest, taxes, Capex, and acquisition of Recytech and dividends, total cash flow in the first nine months amounted to EUR 21 million. Cash on hand stood at EUR 86 million, which, together with the EUR 100 million and drawn revolving credit line, provides Befesa with EUR 186 million of liquidity. Gross debt at the end of the third quarter decreased to EUR 748 million compared to the end of the second quarter. Net debt at Q3 closing stood at EUR 662 million compared to the previous quarter. LTM EBITDA increased to EUR 197 million at the end of the third quarter, resulting in a net leverage of 3.36 at the end of the third quarter. Turning to page 15, the deleveraging.
The new financing, together with our consistent hedging policy and cash flow generation profile, provides the strong financial backbone upon which we base the future growth of Befesa, with a strong focus on capital allocation discipline and leverage management. We clearly have the target to reduce the leverage ratio from the current 3.4 to around 2 to 2.5 times. At the end of this year, we expect leverage to be around 3 times. To do so, we will focus the growth Capex on these projects that will deliver immediate cash flows upon completion, like Recytech and the approved projects of Palmerton and Bernburg. Also, we will keep the maintenance Capex around EUR 40-EUR 45 million over the coming years. As a result, total Capex going forward will not be higher than EUR 100 million per year until leverage is reduced to our target of 2 to 2.5 times.
Now, back to Asier on outlook and growth. Moving on to page 17 on outlook. As explained earlier, we expect full year 2024 Adjusted EBITDA to be between EUR 210 and EUR 215 million within the previous guidance range that we provided in July of EUR 205-EUR 235 million, which represents a growth of 15%-18% year-on-year. Overall, we expect Q4 to be the strongest quarter in the year, supported by a strong volume in all the geographies despite the weak steel sector. In China, we expect to continue at a break-even with no contribution in the year. The positive contribution for the Jiangsu operations being offset by Henan operations. On the same refining in the US, as explained, the current focus is on cost reduction. Overall, we are aiming at reducing the cost around EUR 20 million per year.
We expect to see the results of the cost reduction mostly in the next year. Our secondary aluminum business continues to be impacted by the weak auto industry in Europe, pressure on alloy scrap access, and weak end demand. Expecting leverage around 3.0 by 2024 GRM. Looking ahead to 2025, we feel very optimistic and expect strong double-digit EBITDA growth compared to this year. This is fundamentally based on better zinc hedging level, as Rafael explained, higher volume of steel dust recycled in the U.S. recycling plants, lower zinc refining cost in the U.S., as well as overall lower average COG prices. Moving on to page 18 on growth plan. We are adapting our business plan and capital allocation priorities to focus on reducing the financial leverage, as explained by Rafael, and invest only in the ongoing approved Capex projects Palmerton and Belmont.
The three priorities that will drive our growth and Capex plans are: firstly, keeping the financial leverage between two and 2.5 times over the investment period and the coming years. Secondly, China expansion plan is stopped due to the current market conditions. This does not mean that we are exiting the country. However, we will not invest in the third plan in China in the coming years. Finally, the growth Capex will focus on the two approved projects of Palmerton and Belmont, which are extension of two existing plants in our traditional markets. Therefore, they are projects with relatively low risk from the execution market and technology points of view. Moving on to page 19 on Palmerton. The refurbishment of the Palmerton plant in Pennsylvania is moving on well.
The project consists of the upgrade of the two kilns in the plant in order to improve the efficiency of the plant and expand the capacity to 220,000 tons of steel dust recycling. This will allow us to capture the growth that the North American market is going to experience in 2025 and beyond. The first phase of the project is completed as we speak with the first kiln going through hot commissioning now. The second kiln will be completed by the second half of the next year. We are signing new contracts with steel makers, customers, and so far, we have secured more than 50,000 tons that will gradually come into operations along next year, 2025. Moving on to page 20 on Palmerton.
With regards to the expansion of the secondary aluminum production capacity in the 16th plant of Bernburg in Germany, we are moving forward with the permits, authorizations, and commercial contracts with customers. This project is in line with the expected growth of the demand for recycled aluminum in Europe that we are seeing. Lightweight solutions are recurring, and as a result, the aluminum content in cars will increase. In summary, the growth plan is flexible, and we are adjusting and adapting it to the current circumstances, balancing leverage and Capex, with results in better growth and financial profile over the next years. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Asier. We will now open the lines for your questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touch-tone telephone.
You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. And we also have the first question coming from the line of Brian Butler from Stifel. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one, let's just talk about the guidance. The midpoint came down about $7.5 million on EBITDA for 2024. Can you provide some breakdown color on kind of what's behind that reduction in the midpoint?
Thank you, Brian. Well, first of all, the midpoint is always a reference in between the range that we used to do.
I know that many of you are taking this as a kind of fixed number, but normally, it depends on many things. The final minimum range that we are giving is that this is affecting the last part of the year, some pressure in the aluminum business, especially China not delivering. Finally, it's not a big impact, but it is a persistent situation there. Many things that are affecting, and that's why we are delivering this EUR 210-EUR 215. More than a midpoint, I think that this is, with the time that we have in front of us to finish the year, I think it's more accurate range that we are going to be affected by all those things. Okay.
Okay. Then when you think about the range kind of narrowing, has the range on the cash flow changed as well?
I mean, it was -40 to +20, so a very wide one. Has that narrowed?
I think, Brian, when you look at the total cash flow, we should be thinking in between -20 to -10, considering that we are going to see a reversal of working capital, and there is a limited amount of Capex remaining for Q4. So yes, that will be the new range.
Okay. And then the double-digit growth for 2025, I mean, a big chunk of that is your improved hedging. That's probably 10% growth by itself. What are the other pieces that you know of, assuming kind of the macro environment that's in place, that kind of gets you higher? I mean, two and a half times as a leverage point would probably put you up in the mid-teens, but maybe I'm missing something.
I'm just trying to get an idea of 2025 expectation.
You're right. This is still early, and the thing we have more secure is the hedging. But there are other points that we have touched during the presentation is around more tonnages and utilization rate in the U.S. Despite the challenging period, we think that the current steel production is stable in the U.S., but we are delivering some new contracts with a new project that are going to start to be in place in 2025. This will give us some more profit in the next year, the U.S. utilization and the U.S. volume. And as well, the plan that we have for the reduction of the cost in the smelter is giving us as well some positive news. It's still early to say because we hope the development of the treatment charges, zinc prices, and so.
But at least these three points and perhaps some steel and energy prices coming down because the 2024 at the end has been a little bit resilient in the level they are, is giving us the idea that we are going to have this positive outcome 2025 based on those things. But yes, we will see how the things develop from now and get more accurate range early in the first part of the 2025 year.
Okay. Helpful. And then one last one. What do you need to see in China in order to restart those facilities? Do we need multiple years of kind of steel production improvement or maybe some color around what's your hurdle in order to restart that development?
Well, we have to differentiate.
I mean, the two plants that we have there are basically depending on the steel production in the current circumstances where the real estate crisis and everything affecting the normal industry situation in China. So we are monitoring the market. Of course, we are there, and as soon as we have more dust, we will run the plant at a higher rate. The other thing is the projects of growth in China. We are not exiting from China. I mean, this is the idea that China in the medium term, things have not fundamentally changed. More electric arc furnaces, environmental pressure that we see. But it's true that under the current circumstances, we are basically putting on hold the project unless we see a clear change in a very short term. We don't hope.
I think that it's better to have for the next year on hold the Chinese project. And yes, focus on the two plants which will be delivering. We see 2025 a little bit better than 2024, but I think this is something that is uncertain if China is facing the big crisis that they are doing.
Great. Thank you very much for taking my questions.
Thank you, Brian. Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Jaime Escribano from Banco Santander. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. So my question is regarding the guidance 2024. We see that there are around EUR 25 million as of nine months that you are losing from the zinc and smelter and secondary aluminum. I wonder what would have been the guidance, like a pro forma guidance for 2024, excluding these two negatives. If you can elaborate on that.
Maybe if you can dig deeper in order to get a little bit more assurance on how are you going to recover this, so the initiatives that you are doing in the zinc and smelter, and what can you do also in secondary aluminum in order to turn around these two negatives. This would be my first question. Thank you.
Buenos días, Jaime. Thank you very much for the question. Well, it's a good question. What could be if something different comes? It's true that probably we are living there in the normal operation because the refining and because the aluminum weak margins period in the second part of the year, starting in the summertimes and so. Probably we are talking about 2022. And as well, you can include China. That is where we are developing mark.
But EUR 25-EUR 30 million probably could be an effort of the total effort of those things that could be there. On the other hand, well, I think that part of that is, as I say, to be recovered in 2025 with the saving cost of the smelting in the U.S. And it's early to say what is going to happen with the margin in the aluminum. I mean, this is a consequence of the very specific situation that the car manufacturing industry is facing now. And we don't see that that can keep during the very long period. So probably there is going to be a recovery of the margins in next year. But again, it's early to say. So what is on our hand is the reduction cost plan, and we are going to be focused on that.
And once again, probably when we put the range in 2025, when we finally does, we will do. I mean, meaning that, well, what happened if the Chinese recovery in steel production, margin recovery in aluminum, so that will be covered with the range that finally we put. But definitely, we have to capture part of this effort by reducing the cost in the refinery.
Okay. Thank you. My second question is regarding Palmerton. Given the new capacity, maybe you can give us some guidance on what could be the volumes in the U.S. next year or how much could be the additional EBITDA contribution in 2025 of the Palmerton, let's say, first kiln that is in operation?
Sure. Jaime, I anticipate that we have already signed new contracts of around 50,000 tons for new projects that are going to come to operations in 2025.
Well, this 50,000 could be. It's a number, the theoretical capacity. Well, depending on exactly when the plants are coming into operations during the year, but it's expected to be at least in the third quarter or for sure in the second quarter. This is coming, and it's supporting our plan about the new capacity of steel production in the U.S., and this is for 2025. We see that now more to come in 2026. I don't know. In the range of another 100,000 tons could be in 2026 and then 2027. Again, it will depend on the moment that the new projects, which are ongoing, and obviously they are investing and they are in the final stage, will come, but 2025, I think a good reference could be 50,000 tons or 40,000 tons, depending on the moment.
EBITDA contribution, probably you have your model lines, and you can multiply by the EBITDA per ton of dust that you probably have there. I don't want to give a number because if I give a number, there are going to be another question about what TCs, what price, and everything. But I'm sure that you have modeled it, that you can multiply the 50,000 tons for that. That should be the contribution in next year.
Okay. Thank you, Asier. A final question, if I may, regarding China, which is what is the current utilization of Jiangsu? Has things improved, or how do you see following months and early next year? Any color that you can provide would be also very useful. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Jaime.
Yes, we have repeated the previous results that the idea in Jiangsu is 70% for this year. I think it's going to be a little bit lower. That's why the range that is coming a little bit down, that the expectation of the midpoint, which is something I always say that is like a reference, which is a little bit artificial. But I think it's in the range of 60%-65% probably we will finish in Jiangsu. In the case of Henan, it could be in the range of 20%. How we see 2025? Well, we will have the idea to be back on this level of 70-80% because in a bad year like 2024, we have done in this level in Jiangsu, if we get 70-80% maximum, and we will see later, as I say, in the range how we manage.
In the case of Henan, we don't see more than 30% or something like that for next year later because the situation there is, I think, deeper in the deeper part, in the steelmakers in the Henan area. So yes, it could be a good reference, 70%-80% in Jiangsu, 30% in Henan for 2025. And for this year, 60%-65% in Jiangsu and 20%-25% in Henan.
Thank you, sir.
Thank you, Jaime.
The next question comes from the line of Jorge González from Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking. Please go ahead.
Hello. Good morning, Asier and Rafa. Thank you for taking my questions. My first one, on the last point you mentioned on Henan, can you repeat the utilization levels you mentioned for next year in Henan? I missed that.
Next year could be in the, well, as we have been saying for the 2024, in the range of 30% could be a good reference because we don't see many changes in the current situation so far.
Okay. Okay. I understand. So my first question is regarding the volumes seen in Q3. And sorry if you commented about this because I connected like five minutes late to the call. So the volumes decline around 6%. Obviously, there is always some changes because of when you see the works and all of that. But I am wondering if there is some worsening in the volumes that you expect at least for Q4 and the first part of 2026 in Europe. You mentioned in the slides that Europe is at five-year low. So if it's sustainable, this 90% utilization level, that would be my first question.
And in US, and also to follow up on the comments you did answering Jaime, so you are mentioning that you have new contracts for around 40, 50K next year. And there, in the past, I think you have also mentioned that you have a target to increase utilization levels in general. So to have a better picture of what you are expecting next year, what is in your budget, should we expect any utilization improvement in general in US next year or these 70% levels are still good for our expectations in next year? Thank you.
Thank you for the questions, Jorge. And yes, we have touched a little bit about the tonnages, but in general way. It's true that there is normally this quarter are coincident with some maintenance standstills in Europe and so on, and normally are not the highest, the Q2 or Q3.
But it's true that this year has been a little bit less than even past year. And the reason is very clear. We have had a strike for the union's negotiation in Turkey, which was affecting slightly the total volume in the Q3. As I said before, the strike is over. We got an agreement. And then the Q4 in the Turkish operation are going to be very strong because simply we were growing the stock there. So what we see in the Q4 is in all geographies, a very high utilization rate as used to be normally, including Europe, despite the fact of the steelmaker situation. What we have done in this year and probably will keep next year is to go to longer distance to countries where there are some historical stocks and doing many actions to keep the plants running at those levels.
It's true that can affect, but we don't see a big issue in the next four, five, six months, even the current steelmaker situation, which, by the way, we are observing during the whole year that they are not a very high level production. It's not only now what there is more noise in the market, but the reality is they're high in a level of probably in the 70% range or so. So the European situation, I think that we still have the idea, not I mean, it's more than idea to keep this level of 90% during 2025 and, of course, in the full quarter.
In the case of the U.S., yes, this 40%-50% range is because the new contracts and the real situation will depend on the risk, the margin, and the current contract that we are running there in the U.S., how we will run. But I think, yes, probably the 70% under the current circumstances will become 75%-80% in 2025. Probably this is the aim. And as I said before, 2026 going to 85% or even 90%, depending on the circumstances. But we see what it was planned in the U.S. market, perhaps with some delay, but the new projects are coming into operations and delivering more dust to the market, and we are prepared to capture, especially with the Palmerton. So we see like that.
I mean, growing next year to jump into 75-80, depending when those plants are going to come into, and then 2026 another jump to up to 90%.
Okay, Asier. So we can say then that the growth for next year in U.S. is going to be substantial, no? Because if let's say that we end this year at 300-310,000 tons, and next year you have the addition of Palmerton, let's say 50,000, and then you have around, I don't know, one, two, three points more of utilization, this will drive you more than 20-30%, no? I mean, this is a correct way of thinking about it. I know that you cannot give us numbers, but you are expecting double-digit, strong double-digit growth in U.S. volumes. So is there basically let me do the question another way. It's basically the main driver, no? For volumes next year.
Yes. Jorge, definitely yes. More or less what you are telling is what I'm saying. It's 40-50 thousand tons. It's yes, in around more than 10%. And yes, the growth next year is based on the US. The other geographies will depend on the steel production, but we don't see a major change in the picture, no matter up and down. So yes, the volumes growth is coming on hand from US operations.
Okay. And very last one. On these 50,000 new contracts, this is only with one steelmaker or there are more? Because I remember that you were giving in previous slides some planning for new plants in North America, and there is a number of them. I remember it's three, four, five in the next one to two years.
So I'm wondering if this is only one contract, that then there are others to come, or how we should think about these new plants coming in the U.S. market and how that is going to also help you to increase the utilization levels apart from the economic recovery.
Yes. As I say, Jorge, the idea is that there are more than one steelmaker delivering the new plants. Obviously, all the projects which are there are not going to be for us. There are other players in the U.S. But again, as I say, we see this 40-50 thousand tons this year, and we see another 100,000 tons probably in 2026 for all those projects. But as I say, there are not one. There are more.
But again, if you get all the projects that are in the U.S. and you navigate and you see how much they are, all of them are not for the U.S., obviously. There is a reorganization of the market, but we see like that. 50,000, 2025, and now in 2026, it's early to say, but in the range of 100,000 could be.
Okay. Thank you very much. I go back to the line.
Thanks, Jorge.
The next question comes from the line of Christoph Blieffert from BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on the U.S. refining business. What could be a good estimate for EBITDA contribution for 2024, please?
A good contribution is in a range between EUR 15-20 million this year, and depending on how the year is going to come.
Okay.
And on the cost savings, could you remind us on the cost savings you are currently implementing and whether this will be sufficient in order to reach break even in 2025, even though the overall picture for things melting is not improving next year?
Definitely, we are more or less targeting in the range of EUR 20 million. So initially, the idea is to get break even if, or depending the TC evolution or depending even the premiums there. But for the part of the cost, we'll be in this range. So yes, I mean, the target there is to control what we can control, and later we will see what is the TC evolution. By the way, could affect negatively to the smelter, but positively to the refining business.
So at the end of the day, it is early to say what is going to be the contribution of next year on this. But what is clear is that the target of reduction cost, and we are working on that, is in the range of EUR 20 million for next year.
Okay. And then coming back on the EBITDA contribution, is it a fair assumption that Q1 has been a relatively decent quarter and the big pain started in Q2 and continued in Q3?
I think it's throughout the year. I mean, it's like you kind of split around the nine months. I mean, that can be some specific part of the things at the beginning of the year, but it's a normal contribution and the current cost structure that we have there.
And it's starting to change now at the end of the year, but hopefully in 2025, we get the target.
Okay. And the last question is related to the Bernburg Expansion. What is the strategic rationale for allocating more capital to the aluminum business despite sluggish EV business on the automotive side?
Well, basically, it's a matter of contract with one of the main customers. It's in a tolling basis one, and it's providing more tonnages to salt slag. So at the end, this cyclicality, well, now is no good, but when Bernburg plant is going to be finished, I mean, probably the situation will be different. You get the average. It's not bad. It's not a bad situation.
Once again, the aim of the secondary aluminum is more to have a very big part of our raw material to feed to the salt slag business, and this is what it is. But it's based on a commercial very low risk because it's an increase of a current contract with a very big guy in the aluminum business. This is the rationale.
Thanks a lot.
Thank you, Christoph.
Next question comes from the line of Shashi Shekhar from Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, everyone. And thank you very much for this opportunity. I have a couple of questions. My first question is on the capacity utilization at the steel dust business. It was low in the third quarter. Has the utilization levels recovered in the fourth quarter? And my second question is on Chinese operations.
How much cash these operations are currently burning? That's it.
Thank you, Shashi. The first one, definitely, as I say, the Q3 normally is coming in the same range of Q2 because the maintenance is stopped on this particular situation in this year with Turkey, and this is the reason why it's a little bit lower, but normally, and this year, it's not going to be different. The Q4 is the strongest of the year, and we do hope this. Second question, sorry, was cash flow or the cash indication about what, sorry?
Sorry, I just wanted to understand how much cash Chinese operations are burning currently.
Well, basically, they are not burning because the operations from Jiangsu are offsetting by the no operation of Henan, and we are doing break even in terms of results and cash as well.
Okay, so it's cash total. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Rafael Pérez for any closing remarks.
Thank you all for your questions. You can also reach the investor relations team of Befesa for any further clarification. We will now conclude the conference call and the Q&A. Let me remind you that you can find the webcast and the dial-in details to access the recording of this conference on our website, www.befesa.com. Thank you very much.
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