Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the preliminary full year 2025 results conference call. I am Josa, the conference call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in a listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and one on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Rafael Pérez, CFO. Please go ahead.
Good morning, welcome to the preliminary full year 2025 results conference call of Befesa. I am Rafael Pérez, CFO of Befesa, and this morning I'm joined by our Group CEO, Asier Zarraonandia. Asier will start with an executive summary of the period. He will cover the business highlights for the steel dust as well as aluminum salt slag recycling businesses. I will then review the preliminary full year financials by business, and we'll cover the evolution of commodity prices, our hedging program, and finally, cash flow, net debt, and leverage and capital allocation. Asier will close this presentation, providing an update on the outlook for 2026 and an update on our growth plan. We will open the lines for the Q&A session. As always, this conference call is being webcasted live, and you can find the link in our webcam.
Let me turn this call over to our CEO, Asier, please.
Thank you, Rafael. Good morning, all. Moving to page 5 of the business highlights. We have delivered strong, full results and year results, continuing the solid trend seen in the first nine months of the year. Our performance demonstrates once again the resilience of our business model and the benefits of our diversified operations. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year of 2025 reached EUR 243 million, up 14% year-on-year. The EBITDA margin improved significantly to 21% in the full year of 2025, compared with the 17% in 2024, reflecting a strong operational efficiency and disciplined cost management. Financial leverage was further reduced to 2.27 in December 2025, compared to 2.19 a year ago, well below the 2.5 target, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of deleveraging. Net income and earnings per share also increased sharply.
EPS rose 58% year-over-year to EUR 2.01, reflecting a strong profitability and improved financial performance. In our steel dust business, we achieved resilient EAF dust volume across all markets, despite adverse market conditions. Performance was further supported by lower zinc treatment charges and favorable zinc prices. Our salt slag operation delivered solid performance, while secondary aluminum has been impacted by persistent, challenging environment, driven mainly by the weak automotive market in Europe, as well as the usual summer period maintenance activities in the auto industry. The Palmerton expansion project was completed as expected, with the second kilns successfully hot commissioned in July 25. We expect 2026 to be another year of earnings growth, primarily driven by higher EAF steel dust volumes in the US, as well as strong recovery and secondary aluminum.
Our financial leverage is expected to remain at around 2 times by year-end 2026, supported by solid cash generation and disciplined capital allocation. Growth CapEx will continue to focus on the Bernburg project. I will comment on the outlook in more detail later. Moving on to page 6, business highlights for the steel dust business. In Europe, steel production in the full year of 2025 has remained depressed, down 3% year-over-year, mainly due to weak manufacturing activity and higher imports from China. Despite this, our steel dust deliveries from electrical furnace steel customers continued in line with the 2024 average at very solid levels, demonstrating the resilience of the business model. Operationally, the European plants performed strongly, achieving a 94% load factor in the fourth quarter, showing a strong performance and no maintenance stoppages.
In the U.S., steel production increased by 3.1% year-over-year, driven by overall economic growth. Our U.S. plants operated at a 71% load factor in Q4, continuing a gradual improvement year-over-year. The two new kilns in Palmerton have been fully operational since July 2025, and new electric arc furnace steel supply contracts are ramping up progressively through the Q4, following some initial startup delays. At the same time, cost reduction measures at the U.S. clean refining plant continued to deliver the expected improvements in asset profitability. In Asia, volumes in Turkey increases by 11% year-over-year, recovering strongly after a weak second quarter, affected by maintenance shutdowns. In Korea, the load factor reaches 76% in 2025, up 6% year-over-year, driven by higher domestic deliveries and a strong operational execution.
China operation continue at low utilization level, with earnings around breakeven, reflecting ongoing market weakness. Moving on to the page 7, business highlights for the aluminum salt slag recycling business. In our aluminum business, performance has remained mixed in 2025. Starting with the salt slag recycling business, operations have continued to perform strongly, running in line with previous quarters. Utilization levels remaining above 90% in 2025, demonstrating the robustness and efficiency of our assets. In our secondary aluminum segment, the market environment continues to be very challenging. As we have been commenting during the year, the European secondary aluminum and industry remains under pressure, with tight metal margins and limited production activity, largely as a consequence of the ongoing weakness in the automotive sector.
However, the performance in the fourth quarter of 2025 reinforce the view that the Q3 was the lowest point of the cycle and that the recovery should be underway. Despite these headwinds, we continue to focus on operational discipline, cost efficiency, and customer diversification to preserve profitability and position the business for recovery once market conditions improve. Now, Rafael will explain the financials in more detail.
Thank you, Asier. Moving on to page 9, the financial results for the Steel Dust segment. Steel Dust delivered EUR 212 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2025, which represents a 25% year-on-year improvement. EBITDA margin improved from 21% to 27% in the period, mainly driven by better pricing environment on treatment charges and zinc hedging. The EUR 42 million EBITDA improvement has been driven by the following factors: The year-on-year impact from volume has practically no impact, with similar plant utilization at group level around 70%, similar to last year. As explained by Asier, we have been able to run our European assets at a high utilization, despite a very challenging market environment.
On price, strong positive EBITDA year-on-year impact of around EUR 35 million, with the two main price components being higher zinc hedging price, 3% higher year-on-year, and lower zinc treatment charges, which was set at $80 per ton for the full year 2025, versus $165 per ton in 2024. On cost and other, the net positive EUR 6 million impact is largely driven by the lower operating costs in the zinc smelter in the US, as well as lower average cost of price. These two positive effects have been partially offset by higher inflation costs in the recycling business, as well as unfavorable effects. Moving on to page 10, financial results for our aluminum segment.
Aluminum salt slag delivered EUR 32 million of EBITDA in 2025, which represents a 27% year-on-year decrease compared to EUR 43 million in the same period of last year. The year-on-year EUR 11 million negative EBITDA development was mainly due to the lower aluminum metal margin, as well as slightly higher operating costs and energy prices. On volumes, overall marginally negative EBITDA year-on-year, with a decrease of EUR 3 million. Our recycling volumes of salt slag remain pretty much in line with the previous year. With these volumes, we operated our plants at a strong capacity utilization rate of about 89% in salt slag and 75% in secondary aluminum. With regards to prices, negative EBITDA year-on-year impact of around EUR 5 million, mainly driven by the pressure aluminum metal margin versus the previous year.
As commented by Asier Zarraonandia, our view is that the industry has bottomed out already in Q3 last year, and we expect positive development from now on. This was partially offset by higher aluminum FMB price, with an increase of 3%, averaging EUR 2,369 per ton. On cost and other, increased pressure from higher operating and energy-related expenses. Moving on to page 11, zinc price and treatment charges. Regarding zinc LME prices during 2025, zinc has trading in the range of $2,521-$3,351 per ton, showing a particular positive trend in the last months of 2025. The average of zinc LME price in 2025 have been $2,867 per ton, which is 3% above the last year average.
However, unfavorable evolution of the foreign exchange of the euro dollar has resulted in a slightly lower zinc price in euros, down 1% at EUR 2,542. On the right-hand side of the slide on treatment charges, in 2025, treatment charges for zinc were set in April at $80 per ton for the full year 2025, compared to the $165 of the previous year, marking an all-time low record level. Turning to page 12 on hedging. We have taken the opportunity of the recent rally of the zinc price to be very active on our hedging program. Our hedging book has been extended to the first half of 2028 at all-time high levels of $3,100 per ton.
For 2027, the hedge is set at $3,000 per ton. This provides stability and visibility over the coming quarters and years. Average hedge prices amounted to $2,923 in 2025 and $2,990 for 2026. Turning to page 13, the Befesa energy prices. The page shows the evolution of the three energy sources that we have in Befesa: coal, natural gas, and electricity. With regards to coal price, which today represents around 60% of the total energy bill, the normalization that started in the second quarter of 2023 continues throughout 2025. Average coal price in Q4 was around EUR 152 per ton, consolidated its downward trend compared to the previous quarters.
Regarding electricity, which today accounts for 30% of the total energy expense, price are at similar levels that in Q3 2025, after significant correction in the second quarter of last year. Gas prices continue its normalization throughout 2025, with a slight increase to 45 EUR per megawatt hour in the fourth quarter of last year. Turning to page 14, the cash flow results. Operating cash flow in 2025 has reached a record of EUR 212 million, which represents an increase of 10% compared to the same period of last year, despite higher taxes, with EUR 21 million paid taxes in 2025 versus a positive tax impact in 2024.
The EBITDA to cash flow walk, starting with EUR 243 million adjusted EBITDA, and to the left, working capital consumption amounted to EUR 10 million in 2025, with a strong end-of-the-year recovery from previous level in the first quarter, reflecting the intra-year seasonality that we explained already in the first quarter. Taxes paid in 2025 came in at EUR 21 million as a result of the final tax assessment of the previous year, in comparison with a positive tax impact in 2024, resulting in an operating cash flow of EUR 212 million in the year, making a record in the history of Befesa. CapEx, in 2025, we have invested EUR 50 million in regular maintenance CapEx across the company.
EUR 26 million in growth CapEx related to the refurbishment of the Palmerton plant in Pennsylvania, which is now completed, as well as the part of the Bernburg expansion project in Germany. In summary, total CapEx of EUR 76 million in the year, which is lower than the range of EUR 80 million-EUR 90 million that we initially provided, reflecting a strong discipline on capital allocation. Total interest paid amounted to EUR 34 million, and total bank borrowings amounted to EUR 34 million in the full year. For 2025, the AGM approved in June to pay a dividend of EUR 26 million in July, equivalent to EUR 0.63 per share or 50% of the net income. In summary, final cash flow amounted to EUR 40 million in 2025.
Cash on hand stood at EUR 143 million, which, together with our EUR 100 million undrawn revolving credit line, provides Befesa with more than EUR 240 million of liquidity. Gross debt at the end of December stood at EUR 695 million. Net debt was greatly reduced by 11% to EUR 552 million, compared to EUR 619 million in the same period of last year, resulting in a net leverage of 2.27 at closing of December 2025, a strong improvement compared to the 2.9 at December 2024, and well below our initial target of 2.5. Turning to page 15, the debt structure and leverage.
Following the refinancing back in July 2024 and the repricing in March 2025, Befesa today has a long-term capital structure with optimized financial cost. Net leverage improved significantly, as explained earlier, to 2.27 at the end of last year. This marks the seventh consecutive quarter of leverage reduction, as well as below our company target. For 2026, net leverage is targeted around 2 times and below 2 times onwards, reflecting Befesa's continued commitment to disciplined capital management. We will prioritize the growth CapEx on those projects that will deliver immediate cash flow upon completion, like the approved project of Bernburg and other market opportunities that may appear. We will keep the annual regular maintenance CapEx around EUR 40 million-45 million over the coming years.
On dividend, we are committed to maintain our dividend policy to pay between 40%-50% of the net income to shareholders. For 2026, the board will propose to the AGM to pay a dividend of EUR 40 million, equivalent to EUR 1 per share or 50% of the net income. This dividend is 37% higher than the dividend paid last year in 2025. Moving on to page 16. Befesa is entering a new cycle of low CapEx and high earnings, resulting in a strong free cash flow generation and shareholder value creation. During the last years, we have gone through a high CapEx cycle, which has allowed us to expand our operations globally into the U.S. and China.
Now that this cycle is completed, we enter a new cycle of limited total CapEx, below 80% over the coming years, along with high earnings, resulting in a strong free cash flow. On total cash flow, after 3 years of negative cash flow, 2025 has been marked as an inflection point, delivering a strong final cash flow. Total cash flow is expected to follow a positive trajectory, reflecting the company's improving and stronger underlying cash generation profile. Finally, as we have already commented, leverage is expected to be kept below 2 times for the coming years, allowing greater optionality in future capital allocation decisions. Back to Asier on outlook and growth.
Thank you, Rafael. Moving on to page 18, 2025 guidance. Befesa closed 2025 with solid delivery within the guidance provided, achieving EUR 243 million in EBITDA, and strong operating cash flows of EUR 212 million, and maintaining a strict CapEx discipline, spending EUR 76 million. The company continued to deleverage, reducing net leverage to 2.27, supported by the improved EBITDA and consistent cash generations. Earnings per share rose to EUR 2.01, reflecting a strong underlying performance and enhanced financial efficiency. Overall, the result demonstrate discipline, execution, and continuous focus on long-term value creation for shareholders. Moving to page 19, on 2026 outlook. Looking ahead to 2026, as in the past, we will provide guidance in the first quarter once the 2026 treatment charge has been announced.
I can provide some comments about the year. We expect 2026 to be another year of earnings growth, a strong cash flow generations, and continued deleverage. Steel dust volumes are expected to remain solid and stable in Europe, while the U.S. anticipates higher volumes, driven by new contracts with the steelmakers. In China and the rest of Asia, the stability is also expected to prevail. Salt slags operation are projected to maintain a stable volumes compared with 2025, supported by higher collection fees. The metal margin for secondary aluminum is also expected to improve gradually through the year, particularly after having bottomed it out in the third quarter of 2025. The smelter has benefited from the strong fixed cost reduction achieved in 2025, and further efficiency are expected to be realized through 2026.
On the other hand, energy costs are expected to evolve more moderately. The group anticipates a slightly lower to stable overall coal prices, while European natural gas and electricity prices are projected to rise in 2026. General inflation continues to impact maintenance, auxiliary materials, and personnel costs across all regions, creating a negative pressure point in the cost structure. In the treatment charge environment, the benchmark TC settled at $80 in 2025, its lowest level in 15 years. Although the concentrate market remains tight, characterized by low spot treatment charges, TCs are expected to rise in 2026 toward a range of $100-$130. Hedging activity for silver remains stable, with the average 2026 hedge price set at approximately $2,990 per metric ton, consistent with 2025 levels, suggesting a neutral hedging position.
Total CapEx for the years will be below EUR 70 million, with around EUR 45 million for regular maintenance and the remaining for growth in expansion of Bernburg. Net leverage will be around 2 times by the end of the year. Moving on to page 20 on Palmerton. In the United States, our Palmerton plant has been successfully refurbished, marking a key milestone in our strategy growth roadmap. Both kilns are now fully operational, positioning Befesa to capture the significant growth expected in the US electric arc furnace steel dust market over the coming years. US electric arc furnace steel capacity is projected to increase by more than 20% by 2028, equivalent to around 18 million tons of new steel making capacity. This expansion translates into over 300,000 tons of additional steel dust, creating a substantial opportunity for Befesa's recycling operations.
With a total installed capacity of 650,000 tons across our U.S. plants, we are now well-positioned to leverage this growth. Our goal is to progressively ramp up utilization from below 70% today to around 90% by 2028, as new electric arc furnace capacity comes online. The combination of our modernized Palmerton facility, long-term customer relationships, and a strategic geographic footprint near key steel producers ensures that Befesa is ready to capture this next phase of growth in the U.S. market. Moving on to page 21, our expansion project in Bernburg , Germany. This is another important milestone in Befesa's growth journey as we continue to strengthen our aluminum business and expand our recycling capacity in Europe. From a timing perspective, all permits have now been obtained. Our construction officially started in August 2025.
We expect a 12-month construction period, followed by a 6-month ramp-up phase in the second half of 2026. On the commercial side, we have already secured a strong customer support. Overall, the Bernburg expansion is progressing fully in line with plan. Moving on to page 22, about the European steel industry. Europe is accelerating its transition toward electrical furnace steelmaking, largely driven by decarbonization targets and supportive policy frameworks. Between 2026 and 2030, 12 new electric arc furnace projects have been announced to come online. This represents more than approximately 20 million tons of new EAF capacity, which means 23% increase compared to the EUR 16.9 million of electric arc furnace capacity in Europe.
As a result, EAF penetration is expected to rise from the current 45% over the next 5 to 10 years, supported both by this new project and the progressive replacement of blast furnaces. Given our strong market position, established customer relationships, and ongoing business development efforts, Befesa is strategically well-positioned to capture the significant volume growth expected from these structures. We are already engaged in advanced negotiations with key customers to support this expansion phase in the coming years. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Asier. We will open the lines for your questions.
We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and 2. Participants are requested to use only handsets when asking a question. In the interest of time, please limit yourself to a few questions. Thank you. The first question comes from the line of Shashi Shekhar with Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, everyone, and thank you very much for this opportunity. I have a couple of questions. My first question is on capital allocation. I just wanted to understand what's the priority here? Is it deleveraging or a dividend payment or further expansion into European steel dust business, given improved outlook for European steel segment? My second question is on China. I believe one of the plants is still burning cash. I just wanted to understand at what point you will consider either closing it or moving it to some other province. Thank you.
Thank you, Shashi. On capital allocation, we have tried to explain many times. We want to deliver a combination of keeping the leverage below 2x . Last year, 2025, we made great progress in our deleveraging effort, achieving a target which is below what we initially envisaged, at 2.27. We are targeting around 2x for this year, 2026, and beyond 2026, we expect to keep the leverage below 2x . Okay? Secondly, on dividend, yes, we want to keep the promise that we made at the IPO to pay 40% to 50% of the net income as a dividend to shareholders.
On growth, obviously, as we have explained, we are coming from a high CapEx period, where we have invested heavily in China and in the US, and that has enabled us to expand our operations. I think the focus at the moment is for this year in Bernburg, as Asier has explained, we also see a clear opportunity to deploy capital in Europe, as Asier explained at the end of his speech, to capture the growth of the EAF steel market in Europe, okay? We envisage to do that through a brownfield. We will provide all the relevant details about the project at the right time.
It's a combination of capturing the growth opportunities that we see in our main market, Europe, while keeping the leverage below 2 times and keeping the commitment to pay dividend.
Yeah, Shashi, well, yes, we have one plant running, probably levels in 50%, 60%, and the other one is just 10%, 20%, depending on the dust availability. It's not burning cash because basically what we have is let that plant is stopped under control, even when we run, we run in periods when we have stopped the plant, moving the people to run the business. Basically, the cash is we are not negative cash in general in China for the whole business, we are doing a bit positive and converting into cash positive for the year.
We have some confidence to be in that way until the market come back. Possibilities for the future, well, you told about. I mean, we are open to see if we can move in another in another province, and in that case, we consider even to transfer or translate the assets. We will see. The whole thing now is that China is in a situation that we don't see the need to invest in that facility farm more and wait for the recovery, and as well, because we are not again making cash negative, we have time to do that.
Oh, okay. Thank you. That was very helpful.
The next question comes from the line of Adahna Ekoku with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Thanks very much for taking my questions. I also have two. First of all, just on secondary aluminum, there was quite a strong margin improvement quarter-over-quarter, given the market backdrop. Is this a level we should expect to persist throughout 2026, or were there any kind of specific positive effects in Q4 here? Second, just on the Q1 outlook, could you run through the kind of key moving parts to consider here, like volumes and margins? Are there any maintenance activities we should be aware of?
Hi, Alana. Thank you for the questions. Well, secondary aluminum, I think that, well, yes, I think it's a reference, the last quarter margins, and probably we will see this, we are starting to see this level in the first part of the year. Still, it's a little bit early to say this is gonna be there. Has the level, if it is increasing, so we will see. I mean, it's a good reference because we see that the last part or the worst part has gone. In terms of the outlook and maintenance, I think that the reference could be the last year situation for maintenance stoppages, and probably the dust and the activity volumes are gonna be in line with 2025.
Well, we think that we can improve the figures, but in terms of activity could be a good reference, the first quarter of 2025.
That's helpful. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from the line of Fabian Piasta with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I have three and one follow-up. Could you give us an indication what the EBITDA contribution from your U.S. smelting business is? Are we break even already this year, and what are you expecting for 2026? The second one is on the treatment charge outlook. Do you think that this is more driven by capacities or the recently increasing LME zinc price, basically making smelter compete for the zinc? The third question would be, you were referring to demand from data center verticals. Is there an end market split that you can share? How do you see that? What do you expect this growth to influence volumes in the U.S.?
The last one was on maintenance. Did you say that the phasing is going to be similar like last year, so more maintenance shutdowns in the first half, or did I get that right? Thank you.
Thank you, Fabian. Many good questions. Well, regarding the U.S. refineries, well, the plan is where we thought to be, and it's closing to the breakeven point and the costs are under control. Now, the operation depend on the volumes as well of material we can treat there, and it's basically a control of the cost already done. Even we can gain a little bit more efficiency cost for next year. Regarding the treatment charges, it's a good question about the what is affecting. The most is capacity, demand offered about concentrates market, and it's a little bit strange, but obviously it's affected by the rest of the factors which affects to the same price. Normally, the period is still in favor of the miners.
The question is where it's gonna be. A spot we see that is not, has not to be a real correlation, but is a little bit down again. Well, all the music sounds that it's gonna be another year of favor of miners. The level could be in the range as we see more than $100 now, but this has to be confirmed. Basically, those days with a meeting for the International Zinc Association in U.S. those days. We will see. In terms of the steel demand and so on, I think that everywhere is an expectation about the general evolution. Looks positive because we can see the steel sale prices of everyone.
Yeah, I think that the expectation is that a recovery and because the tax and custom action they are taking for in Europe or U.S. could have an effect in the production. If this happens, we see positive, you know, outlook for the steel in general. Regarding the last point, as I said before, yeah, Maintenance stoppage is sometimes not easy to move from six months or so, or longer period because yearly basis is when we do the maintenance. More or less, what we see now for 2026 is the same level than 2025, with the Q1 and Q2, and then Q3 and Q4, we're having more volumes. This is a little bit the view that we have now, no major changes.
We try to move, and do longer periods before the maintenance, but no big changes are gonna come in a short term. Again, the 2025 maintenance stoppage reference is a good point of, you know, do the your expectations.
Great. Thank you very much.
The next question is from Olivier Calvet with UBS. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have three. Firstly, on volumes, in U.S., what's your expectation for additional volumes in 2026? You know, if you could give us a sense of the range you're thinking about, depending on when your clients come, volumes come through. The second question would be on the CapEx level. I fully understand the message on sort of below EUR 80 million CapEx going forward, but I know it's a slightly higher maintenance CapEx in 2025 than I think you had indicated. Are you expecting a similar level of maintenance CapEx in 2026? Just the growth CapEx part related to Bernburg, I had in mind EUR 10 million-EUR 15 million. Is that fair?
The third one, just on the zinc hedges , great to see you've been active on hedging. What you've added in 2027 and 2028 is in USD, right? There's, in 2026, I think you had hedged in EUR, right? Just if you could remind us what level of exchange rate you hedged 2026?
Thank you, Olivier. I can get the first question about the U.S. volume, which is what we do expect is partially the same that we were expecting 2025 with the new contract. Depending on the evolution of the steel production in general for the rest of the customer, but we see more or less in the range of 60,000-70,000 tons of more volume in U.S. More or less, it's a good reference for you to have.
Regarding CapEx, Olivier, I think we have said that clear. Obviously, it's not a fixed number, but maintenance CapEx will stay between EUR 45 million-EUR 50 million over the coming years. Growth will be based on in this year 2026 on Bernburg.
I think we are envisaging a maximum CapEx for this year of EUR 70 million. For the coming years, we don't see any year of CapEx higher than EUR 80 million. What I try to explain is that we are entering to a new cycle of limited capital, limited CapEx and higher earnings, resulting in a strong free cash flow. Regarding the hedging, yes, we for 2026, we are hedged in euros for our European volumes, in dollars for our American volumes. For 2027 and for 2028, the hedging are at the moment in USD. Yeah.
Okay. Just on the CapEx, the growth part of the guidance for 26 is basically only Bernburg, or is it, is there some headroom to do-?
Only Bernburg.
Got you.
Only Bernburg.
Yeah.
The next question is from the line of Jaime Escribano with Banco Santander. Please go ahead.
Hello, good morning. Excuse me for my voice. A couple of questions from my side. The first one on salt slags. The EBITDA in 2024 was close to EUR 32 million, around EUR 29.5 million in 2025. What could we expect in 2026? Also, if you can comment on the margin of salt slags in Q4, which was a little bit lower, up to only 1%, more or less. What could we expect? If you can give us some color on the dynamics in salt slags, basically. Second question on secondary aluminum. It will be very much of a similar question. EUR 2 million in 2025, which seems to be a trough. What should we expect for 2026, a number that you feel comfortable?
Maybe a final question on the guidance, 2026, which I know you don't provide, but if we look to the consensus at EUR 260 million EBITDA, EUR 262 million EBITDA, more or less, how comfortable you feel with this number? Building on this, if the treatment charge ends up being around EUR 100 million-EUR 110 million, and seeing price average is above EUR 3,000, how do you see this EUR 260 million? Do you see upside risk or you still comfortable with this number? Thank you.
Thank you, Jaime. Starting for the salt slag question, yes, we have. I think it's a business which the current normal capacity of the secondary aluminum production in general and in Europe is quite stable. We do hope this reference of EUR 32 million that we have in 2025 could be a reference even to increase something in 2026 because we have increased fees for aluminum producers. We see that is a good reference, even slightly higher. The 2025 number has been affected by basically the volumes that you have seen that is not better, and some more ways of the cost of production because you are not increasing or compensating with the volumes. The dynamics of the business is clear. It's very similar to the steel dust.
The volumes is the key because we have the plant almost full capacity, but the current aluminum producer and secondary aluminum producer situation is putting some stress to the plant, and we are not being so efficient like in the past because the full production is the best situation to absorb the cost. We see 2026, as I say, you know, an stable business, but probably a little bit higher, 10% or something like that could be a good reference, no? With regards to secondary aluminum, what we can wait, we can expect for 2026? Well, the EUR 2 million of the Q4 is a good reference. I mean, just repeating the EUR 2 million in every quarter, we will talk about EUR 8 million or something like that.
Well, it's not coming back to the years that we have even EUR 20 million in this business, well, some reference of EUR 8 million-EUR 10 million is something that will be not very, very strange for us, right? We will see if it's going to be, you know, even better, because we see very difficult to be back on the, on the worst, you know, period like it was the good Q3. Yes, the Q4 could be a good reference. Perhaps conservative, but repeating this, as I say, could be a reference. With regards, with the guidance. I know you guys that you like the numbers, and basically one number and an average in the, in the range, whatever. EUR 260 million something, that is the current consensus.
We are comfortable with this figure, but we need a little bit more time to see the evolution of TC and put our estimations. I think that is. In any case, we'll be in the range, this amount, and we are not, we are comfortable. Yes, really.
Thank you very much, Asier.
Thank you, Jaime.
The next question is from Beltrán Palazuelo with DLTV. Please go ahead.
Hello, good morning, Asier, Rafa. Congratulations, all of you and the team for the strong results. I have two questions. First of all, regarding capital allocation. I know you answered, but I will ask again. Clearly, seeing all the dynamics you're seeing and you're stating, and clearly also stating all the visibility you start having with the zinc prices, you know, due to the hedges, and seeing that the spot price is higher than your hedges, it looks like that in the future, well, your balance sheet should get stronger and stronger. My question is, apart from paying the dividend, what is making you not start buying a little bit of shares to show the market all your, let's say, improvements? We...
You know, from us, we would like to see the share count decrease. In 2021, you increased it at a good price. Now, we want to see it decrease because the balance sheet, it looks like it gets stronger and stronger. My second question is, What growth opportunities apart from the stated, do you see now, medium to long term to allocate the capital appropriately? Thank you very much, and all the support.
Thank you, Beltrán. I think we have discussed many times, you know. I think obviously share buyback is something that we have looked in the past, but the financial profile of the company was not the adequate. It is true that we expect to generate a very healthy cash flow going forward. We want to keep the leverage slightly below 2 times. Yes, if we don't see any growth opportunity, we will definitely consider share buybacks. Considering also the share price, you know, and the valuation of the company. Always, anytime that we see that the valuation of the company or the share price doesn't reflect really the what we believe should be the fair value of the company, we will analyze share buybacks.
I don't think that's something that you can expect this year. We have another project in the pipeline, which Asier is going to explain you, which is in Europe, as you know very well. It's about balancing everything, but yes, I think share buybacks are something that we are looking at, not in the short term but more in the midterm.
Yeah, indeed. I think it's Beltrán, it's a good question, and I think that we are gonna generate a strong cash, and the massive growth opportunities that we have in the past are not coming so high. Probably those consideration are on the table, and we have to see what is better, is to keep growing with the projects, as you are asking, or yes, do some program of, say, buybacks or whatever. What is better for the shareholders at the end of the day, you know? In this regard, the project that we have in the pipeline for the next years clearly is to finish the Bernburg plan, as we are indicating, basically in 2026.
The next one could be, or is gonna be, the question is when, but probably starting 2027 is a good reference, and to running in 2029. In the European, you know, second kiln in o ur French plant, going on hand to hand with the projects of the steel makers. We have on the pipeline as well, the salt slag plant in the East Europe. If I'm following the developing of the decarbonization and the evolution of the automotive sector, nowadays, I think that is not the time to do because it's everything is delayed and has to be confirmed. Out of those two projects, we have, of course, the idea to medium-term for new geographies, like India or like, say, from five, four, five years, China is back.
At the end of the day, to see opportunities, small M&As or whatever. It's true that this is the reason, as Rafa says, that we have to evaluate the new projects against new ways of retribution to the shareholders clearly, you know? Anyway, we are really interesting because I think that is a very good opportunity for the Befesa evolution on the growth of the European market, and then we will see what is going on with the rest of the geographies.
Okay, thank you very much. Also, as I said in the, in the past, and I say it now publicly, I think, you have demonstrated to the market that you're extremely good, and to say, operators. What you have to demonstrate the market is that you're extremely well capital allocators. I think you demonstrated in 2021. You, you have to demonstrate it, going forward, no? Because if you start a share buyback of EUR 10 million or EUR 20 million in the future, when the stock is at EUR 60, that would make no sense.
You do not have to make a big thing, but I think the balance sheet is getting stronger, and the stock market is not reflecting it. All the support. Have a good day.
Fully agree, Beltrán. Thank you so much for your comments.
Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Pérez for any closing remarks.
Thank you all for your questions. Please don't hesitate to contact the investor relations team of Befesa for any further clarification. We will now conclude the conference call. Thank you for joining, and have a good day. Bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over.