Welcome to the third quarter 2023 results conference call of Befesa. I am Rafael Pérez, CFO of Befesa, and today we have with us Javier Molina, Executive Chair of Befesa, and Asier Zarraonandia, CEO of the company. Javier will start with an executive summary of the third quarter results. After that, Asier will explain the business highlights of the period, covering Steel Dust and Aluminium Salt Slags Recycling. I will then review the financials with a focus on cash flow, net debt, and our hedging program. Asier will close this presentation, providing an update on the outlook for the rest of the year, for the next year, as well as our growth plan over the next five years. Finally, we will open the line for the Q&A sessions. Before getting started, let me remind you that this conference call is being webcast, webcasted live.
You can find the link to the webcast and the third quarter results presentation on our website, www.befesa.com. Now, let me turn this call over to our chairman. Javier, please.
Thank you, Rafael. The third quarter has continued with the challenging macroeconomic environment that we have seen through the year. In these difficult market conditions, Befesa has delivered similar level of revenues than last year, at EUR 289 million, driven by the integration of the zinc refining operations in North America, which has compensated the decrease in zinc price. EBITDA in the second quarter has been EUR 42 million, down 8% compared to the previous year. The main drivers for this decrease has been higher treatment charge, up 19% compared to last year, lower zinc prices, which are down 27% compared to the same period of last year, as well as higher coke price compared to the previous year.
All these negative effects has been partially offset by higher zinc hedging prices, a lower operating cost driven by productivity improvement, and lower natural and electricity prices. Asier will explain the performance on the steel and aluminium business in more detail later. From the strategic point of view, during the third quarter, we have continued integration in the U.S. operations, including the zinc refining plant, which is improving its performance gradually, with higher utilization rates. The focus at the moment is on reducing the cost base, which will drive profitability further. Also, in North America, we continue with the refurbishment works of the plant in Palmerton, Pennsylvania, in order to capture the growth that we are seeing in the U.S. market on Steel Dust recycling over the next two years.
In China, the real estate crisis that the country is experiencing is having an impact on the level of steel production from our customer, which continue to be weak, impacting the levels of utilization of our plants in Jiangsu and Henan. With regards to the third plant in China, in the province of Guangdong, we are focused on getting a Steel Dust supply agreement with local producers in order to have certainty of supply before starting to deploy capital to initiate the construction of the plant. As we explained it in the past, we can modulate the speed of investment depending on the different dynamics that we see in the different markets. As such, we are adapting the execution of our growth strategy to the current situation in China.
With regards to the outlook for the rest of the year, overall, we don't expect any meaningful change in the current macroeconomic environment towards the end of the year. Zinc price have touched the C90 cost curve. However, the price has not rebounded strongly as we, we would have expected. Coke price are coming down in Europe, and we are locking in contract at good prices. However, in the US, coke prices are still high, high. Based on this, we expect to achieve in the last quarter, in line with the third quarter, which will make full year EBITDA around EUR 180 million. On the other hand, for 2024, we expect a strong earning growth, which doesn't depend on the recovery of zinc price, nor a recovery of the global macroeconomy.
We expect many of the headwinds we are facing in 2023, this year, to be reverted in 2024. Finally, we are optimistic about the midterm outlook. Our well-defined five-year plan is based on a strong, strong market fundamentals, like the carbonization mega trend. The plan is well diversified across regions and markets, which provides a facility to move in different speed, depending on the dynamics that we see in each market. Today, we see a, a strong US steel market, which will grow over the next 2 years, and we are moving fast to capture this growth. On the other hand, in China, we are monitoring the development of the real estate industry, while we work on securing the Steel Dust volume in the third plant. Now, Asier will explain the business performance in more detail.
Thank you, Javier. I will now provide an overview of the performance of the business during the first nine months of 2023. Overall, the first nine month period of the year has been a challenging one, as explained by Javier, impacted by decreasing zinc prices, high treatment charges, high coke prices, and still a weak market environment in China.
... Befesa's total revenue increased by EUR 46 million or 5% year-on-year, to EUR 904 million in the first nine months of the year, mainly driven by the contribution from the US zinc refining operations. Befesa delivered an adjusted EBITDA of EUR 137 million, down EUR 27 million or 17% year-on-year. This decrease was driven by lower metal prices of zinc and aluminium. Reviewing the main drivers of the year-on-year, EUR 27 million EBITDA development in more detail. On volume, overall, approximately EUR 8 million positive volume year-on-year impact, mainly driven by a strong volume development in Europe, which is the market where we achieve the highest margin and strong contribution from China, as well as Aluminium Salt Slags with another plant back to operations.
On price, overall, approximately EUR 52 million negative price year-on-year impact, explained by lower zinc and aluminium prices, about EUR 42 million from the Steel Dust business and around EUR 10 million from the Aluminium Salt Slags business. I will explain in more, in more detail later. On cost, other, the negative impact from high coal prices have been compensated with lower operating costs in our Steel Dust and Aluminium Salt Slags business. In this case, mainly through lower electricity and natural gas prices. Turning to page 8, the results from our Steel Dust recycling business. Revenue in the Steel Dust business increased by EUR 72 million or 14% year-on-year to EUR 605 million, mainly attributable to the contribution from the US zinc refining operations. The Steel Dust delivered EUR 102 million EBITDA in the period, down EUR 29 million or 22% year-on-year.
Overall, the year-on-year EUR 29 million decrease in EBITDA was mainly driven by the 27% decrease in Zinc LME market prices. The volume level was positive by around EUR 5 million EBITDA year-on-year impact. As explained, mainly due to the strong volumes in Europe, as well as some contribution from China. In Turkey, after the earthquake occurred again in February, our plant in Iskenderun has been operating at normal levels. Total Steel Dust volume in H1 was 890,000 tons, which is in line with the same period of last year, representing an average utilization of 70%. The lower utilization compared to the previous year is explained by the inclusion of the Henan plant in the calculation.
The price level was overall negative by about EUR 42 million year-on-year, with main price components being EUR 45 million negative impact from lower Zinc LME prices, down 27% or more than EUR 900 per ton year-on-year, to around EUR 2,490/ton on average for the period. The EUR 10 million positive impact from higher zinc hedging prices helped us to fully offset the unfavorable increase of zinc TC's, which was set at $274 per ton for the year 2023, versus $230 per ton in 2022. Regarding the cost level, the pressure from higher coal prices were offset by the positive impact through the productivity and synergies. Moving now to page 9, with the results of our Aluminium Salt Slags Recycling business.
Aluminium Salt Slags delivered a strong first nine months, with EUR 36 million EBITDA, up 6% year-on-year. The year-on-year EUR 2 million EBITDA improvement was mainly due to the higher volume and lower cost, primarily through lower energy prices, partially offset by lower aluminium market prices. Regarding volumes, our salt slag recycling volumes increased by 70% year-on-year to 258,000 tons, primarily due to the ramp up of the Hanover plant, which we completed in Q2. Our aluminium alloy production volumes increased by 3% year-on-year to 126,000 tons. With this volume, we operated our plants at solid utilization rate of about 82% in secondary aluminium and close to 73% in salt slag on average.
With regards to the prices, aluminium alloy, FMB market prices showed that 12% or around 300 EUR per ton decreased versus last year. This negative price effect was partially compensated by, with year-on-year lower operating costs, mainly through the lower gas and electricity prices. From the market point of view, although our global level of steel production is at the same level than last year, it has some different results by geography. In Europe, steel production has decreased 9% in the period, although most of the decrease is coming from BOF side of the production. EAF production in Europe continues at solid levels, supporting the strong authorization levels on in our plants. In the U.S., the steel production is similar to last year. However, our volume is slightly lower as we already expected....
In China, although total steel production is up 3% in the year, the production from our EAF steel makers customers is still weak, driven by a low level of construction caused by the real estate crisis in China. China is suffering. As a consequence, our plant in Jiangsu is running at around 60%-70% utilization, and Henan at 30%-40% utilization. As we saw in page 11, Zinc LME prices have significantly decreased in the year, and they are moving around the C90 cost curve. Zinc prices have historically rebounded strongly upon touching the C90 curve. This time, the recovery is not happening as quickly as in the past. Nevertheless, the C90 is a clear floor of the zinc price.
Regarding treatment charges for zinc in 2023, we are suffering from a very unfavorable combination of high treatment charge, which were settled when the zinc price was very high, and as well as collapsing zinc prices. Treatment charge in 2023 are nearly all by high levels, and our view is that this should be reversed going into 2024. With regards to Befesa's coal price, after reaching at an all-time high level in Q1, Befesa's coal price started to moderate in Q2 and continued further in Q3. However, the nine months average coal price was still around 85% above the 2019-2021 average levels. In Q3, we are starting to to see further normalization, especially in Europe, which hopefully will continue over the rest of the year and in the other geographies. Now, Rafael will explain the financial section.
Thank you, Asier. Turning to page 14 on hedging. Befesa's hedging strategy remains unchanged and continues to be a key element of Befesa's business model, providing zinc price visibility, lowering the impact from zinc price volatility, and therefore improving the stability and visibility of earnings and cash flow throughout the economic cycle. It is in moments like this one, we are seeing now with falling zinc prices caused by uncertainty and weak global economic outlook, when the hedging proves its value. As Asier has explained, the zinc price is currently trading with some volatility around the C90 cost curve. In moments like this, we do not extend our hedge forward. We just wait for the zinc price to recover to extend our hedges. Our zinc hedge book covers 60%-75% of our zinc exposure up to and including July 2025.
Therefore, we have more than 20 months of hedges on our books at increasing hedging average prices, around $2,400 per tonne in 2023, and $2,500 per tonne in 2024, and $2,650 per tonne for the first half of 2025. The higher zinc hedging price for the coming years provide earnings increased visibility of earnings going forward. Turning to page 15, the cash flow, net debt, and leverage results. On the EBITDA to cash flow bridge, starting with EUR 137 million adjusted EBITDA on the left and working to the right. Working capital was up by about 36 million year-over-year.
The higher working capital consumption was very much driven by the seasonality and timing impact, similar to last year, driven mainly by increase in revenues and receivables, the majority of which is expected to reduce in the fourth quarter towards the end of the year, as in previous occasions. Interest paid increased year-on-year by 27% to EUR 21 million in the first nine months of 2023. This was explained primarily by two elements. On the one hand, the higher margin applicable to the Term Loan B, which increased in December 2022, by 25 basis points to Euribor plus 2%, due to the increase on the leverage ratio. On the other hand, the year-on-year higher Euribor from 0% last year to 1%-3% applicable in the first nine months of 2023.
Taxes paid reduced by 23% year-on-year, to EUR 16 million in the first nine months of the year, driven by the lower profit before taxes compared to last year. Just resulting in an operating cash flow of EUR 64 million for the first nine months of the year. 19% or EUR 15 million lower versus the same period of last year, very much driven by the lower level of earnings. CapEx-wise, during the first nine months of 2023, we spent EUR 64 million in maintenance CapEx, including expenditures related to the final recovery of our Hanover plant and related to the operational excellence synergies projects in the US. Normalizing for Hanover recovery CapEx, regular maintenance CapEx amounted to roughly EUR 45-50 million in the first nine months of the year.
Growth CapEx of EUR 20 million, including the remaining expenditure of Henan, and CapEx related to the refurbishment plant of Palmerton, EUR 13 million. Overall, total CapEx of EUR 84 million for the first nine months of the year. Normalized for about EUR 15 million of Hanover spend, total CapEx will amount to around EUR 60 million, which annualized would be equal to around EUR 90 million. Well aligned with the EUR 85 million-EUR 95 million CapEx guidance for the full year 2023. Dividends of EUR 50 million or 1.25 per share were distributed in July, equal to 47% of the net profit of 2022, within our policy of distributing 40%-50% of the net income of the previous year. After funding working capital, interest, taxes, CapEx, and dividends, total cash flow amounted to -EUR 81 million for the first nine months of the year.
Cash on hand stands at EUR 81 million, which together with our entirely undrawn 75 million revolving credit line, provides Befesa with over EUR 150 million liquidity. The EUR 633 million net debt, with the EUR 187 million last twelve months adjusted EBITDA, results in a leverage of 3.4 times at closing Q3. Our capital structure is long-term and efficient, with no covenants and no maturities until July 2026. Now, back to Asier on outlook and growth.
Thank you, Rafael. Moving now to outlook on page 17. Firstly, about full year 2023. As we have explained it, 2023 remains being very challenging, driven by macro and market-specific challenges, like high TC, low zinc prices close to C90, all-time high coal prices, lower than expected Steel Dust volumes in China. Based on these headwinds and the persistence of them, we expect Q4 to be in line with Q3, based on similar market conditions, which will make total full year EBITDA to be around EUR 180 million. For 2024, we expect a strong earnings growth, which does not depend on the recovery of zinc prices, nor on recovery of the global macroeconomic. We expect many of the pressures we are facing in 2023 to be reverted in 2024.
Firstly, the very unfavorable combination of treatment charges zinc price should revert in 2024 via lower TC and/or higher zinc price. For the reference, spot TC is well below this year level. Each $10 TC valuation delivers EUR 2.5 million EBITDA. Secondly, coal price is decreasing in Europe, although this decrease is still not happening in the U.S., the trend goes in the right direction, and coal price should deliver earnings growth in 2024. Third, the hedging level is better in 2024, which will deliver around EUR 15 million. Number four, in the U.S., we expect to continue capturing the operational synergies in the recycling business. Additionally, the Zinc refining plant should deliver positive EBITDA once we are able to operate the plant at high optimization, and we start to capture value from the cost reduction initiatives.
Finally, on China, although it's still difficult to know how much, but we expect in China to deliver more than in 2023, difficult to be lower than 2023. So all in all, we expect a strong double-digit growth for 2024. Regarding our midterm outlook, we remain very optimistic. We have a well-defined, five-year plan, which is based on a strong market fundamentals, like the decarbonization mega trend. Decarbonization will drive, will drive EAF steel production in the key markets where Befesa operates, which will make a Steel Dust production to grow in the coming years. Similarly, the electric vehicle trend will drive the demand for aluminium in Europe and the US in the coming years, as the automotive industry looks for lightweight solutions.
Our world plan is well diversified across regions and markets, which provides us the flexibility to move in the different speed, depending on the developments that we see in each market. In this current challenging environment, we are cautious about the capital expenditures, and we are adapting the CapEx to the dynamics that we see in the market. We have a well-defined growth plan, consisting of nine projects in Europe, China, and the U.S., to capture the growth opportunities that we are seeing in the market. The first part of the investment plan focus on the U.S., with the refurbishment of the Palmerton plant, which has already started signing the EPC and starting with the works on the field.
As explained in the past, the refurbishment of the Palmerton plant consists of the retrofit of the two kilns in the plant, one at a time, in order to capture the growth plan that the North American market is going to experience in 2025 and beyond. The first phase of the project will be completed by Q3 2024, while the second phase will be completed by beginning 2025. The second focus of the investment plan is China, where we are developing the third plant in the province of Guangdong. With more than 120 million people living in the province, Guangdong is one of the richest in the nation and the largest car manufacturing location in China.
The current situation in China, characterized by weak economic environment and weak steel production, makes us be more cautious and adapt to the situation in the country. We are monitoring the evolution of the market and don't expect to invest in the plant in this year, 2023. The focus at the moment is on securing the Steel Dust volume for our customers before we start deploying capital in Guangdong. The question in China is not if the economy will recover, but when will it happen? Despite the current challenging market environment, China has all the ingredients for Befesa to run profitable operations. The penetration of electric arc furnace route is clearly increasing. They are implementing a strong environmental regulation, and we believe that the first mover advantage is essential.
Furthermore, we are exploring the opportunity to expand our Aluminium Salt Slags Recycling business in the U.S., driven by the fast-growing secondary aluminium industry. We are exploring this attractive opportunity hand-in-hand with one of our main customers in Europe, who has a strong operation in the U.S. and needs the same recycling services. The U.S. is a very similar market than Europe, and our presence in North America with our Steel Dust business, together with our leadership position in Europe, will facilitate the opportunity. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Asier. We will now open the lines for the Q&A session.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star followed by two. In the interest of time, please limit yourself to two questions only. If you're using speaker equipment today, please leave the handset before making your questions. Anyone who has a question, press star followed by one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. The first question is from the line of Sandeep Deshpande with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I have a couple of questions. I'll take one at a time. So firstly, what makes you confident that zinc refining asset in the US and two plants in China will start contributing to earnings in 2024? Also, can you confirm if you are expecting approximately EUR 10 million per plant in EBITDA contribution from China and EUR 10 million from zinc refining asset in the US in 2024? That's my first question.
Thank you for the question, Sandeep. Well, basically, what we are confident is that the situation in China is improving in the last months and is improving constantly. So we do think that in 2024, the volumes to be treated at the plant are gonna be higher for sure in 2024 than in 2023. So that's why we are confident in China that the contribution is gonna be positive. The amount of the contribution is still early to say, because depending on the zinc prices that we're gonna face that, and as well, the treatment charges and so. But, well, the range that you are telling is always the range that we are still indicating, in the range between EUR 8 million-EUR 12 million could be what we are doing in China. Let's see for the full year of 2024.
With regards to the refining asset in the U.S., again, operations are going very well. We are having very, very high production levels and with a very, you know, the good quality of the Special High Grade Zinc. So we are doing very well the operations there, and now we are focusing to reduce the cost to the level that contribute more profit in the future. But again, it's early to say if we can get the number for 2024, because, again, depends on what is gonna be the treatment charges. As you know, the smelting facilities can have to live with the treatment charges on the other way to the miners and to the recyclers. So will depend on that.
will depend, of course, about the zinc prices and as well the electricity prices and the other costs that we can have. So it's early to say, but this amount that we have set in the past is something that could be probably achievable. But again, Sandeep, it's early to say to confirm the levels of the euros you are telling.
Okay, thank you. And just follow up on that. So what level of zinc prices have you assumed to come to EUR 8 million-EUR 12 million of EBITDA in China? And similarly, what level of zinc TCRC needs to be seen to achieve EUR 10 million of EBITDA?
Well, probably we have to live with the same prices that are now, and I think that, again, you, us, and everyone at the call has the idea of what is gonna be the same prices. But normally, what we have to have in mind always is the forecast and the consensus of the future zinc prices that all the experts are doing. So I will say that, we have to do this with the prices that the people is projecting.
Okay, thank you. And then, second question. So your leverage seems to be quite elevated. So are you taking any steps to reduce financial leverage, which is expected to be, let's say, greater than three times by the end of the year? Also, are you thinking to keep your dividend policy intact for 2023?
Yeah. Yeah, thank you for the question, Sandeep. Yeah, well, the leverage is, we believe it's a temporarily reason what is driving up the leverage. At the moment, it's at 3.4 times. We believe that, towards the year-end, it will be still below 3.5 times, and we expect to see a starting of the deleverage from Q1 onwards as we increase EBITDA on a quarterly basis, and we reduce the amount of CapEx, okay? So we believe it's a temporary thing. In terms of the... As you know, we have communicated many times in the past, our target is to keep the leverage throughout the investment period at around 2.5 times, and we believe this is a temporary situation, driven by, by temporary matters.
On the dividend policy, yes, I think we want to stick to our policy, which is paying 40%-50% of the previous year's net income. Obviously, as net income decreases this year, the dividend payout this year will be, on an absolute terms, considerably lower than last year. So from the cash flow point of view, it will be a much lower... but this we want to keep to the policy.
Thank you very much. I'll be back in the queue.
The next question is from the line of Michael Hoffman with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, and thank you very much. With regards to your comment that you thought that 2024 could be double digits, I mean, at the low end of that, at just 10%, that puts you below the midpoint of this year's EBITDA. So I guess I would frame it differently. Do you expect to be less than your original 2023 guidance at the midpoint in 2024?
Hi, Michael. Good morning, and thank you really for the question. Well, I'm gonna answer very, very simple. Difficult to say now again, because you could have a treatment charge idea for next year. Well, depends on what you have, the amount is different there. So it's early to say for us the guidance level, but, when we say a strong growth, is to believe that we, we say a strong growth. Just an example, you consider now that the spot treatment charges, for the concentration, the world is around $100. So imagine if the-- is fixing this, could be a different amount rather than the, what is coming down that. So that, that could have an effect. Second, coke price decreasing.
We are fully convinced that that is gonna be lower prices, but depends on you consider 20%, 30% decrease or even more, could be different. So, hedge is more clear, that could be in the range of EUR 50 million, better, and basically, I think that with those level of ideas, you can modulate whatever you think or consider what the refining contribution plant and with the Chinese contribution. So I do think that is up to you to build this. And for probably whatever conditions you take, you will see that the strong growth is gonna come there, and we are sure that we are captured, we are gonna capture this.
Okay, let me ask it slightly differently. If everything stays just as it is now, except that coke prices are lower, how much, how much is the coke value alone worth in 2024, if it's at the current levels, but everything else is the same? That same zinc price, same aluminium, same treatment charge. What's that? What's the coke alone impact?
Michael, again, well, we have clarified that we have consumption around 250,000 tons of coke per year. And from the peak season of the 2023, sorry, prices from the ones we had in 2021, the difference is normally in the range of 120 or 110 EUR per ton. So you get the, the full difference is EUR 30 million. So again, I'm not sure how much is gonna be the reduction, but probably you can have whatever you want in half, 30%-40%.
Even more.
Even more. I think full EUR 120 perhaps is too much or not, we don't know. So at the end of the day, we have or we need a little bit more time to put the numbers to the guidance, but all the signals I'm telling to you, well, makes that you can put, you know, whatever level of this 50% of the, of the gap could be a reference. Yes, why not? We will see later with more time.
Okay. Thank you very much.
The next question is from the line of Lasse Stüben with Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. I just want to follow up on the coke comments. Can you give a bit more detail on how those agreements look? At the moment, you said in your sort of presentation that your new contracts that are about EUR 130 per ton for Europe. Can you just talk about the duration of those contracts and how that kind of looks on an overall basis for the group, given your comments that the US prices are still a bit higher?
Thank you for the question, Lasse. As I, we have explained it many other times, it's not an easy question because it's a combination of what kind of coke we are using, it depends the geographies and plants. In the case of the European plants, we are majoritarily using pet coke, with what we have seen a very, you know, important reduction during the last Q3, and we are gonna have in the Q4. In the case of the U.S. operation, we are using majoritarily met coke, and in this case, the met coke prices are still reluctant to reduce. In terms of how we are managing this, is the closest as possible to the spot basis prices, because it has no sense to us at the level of the coke prices to close longer-term contracts.
So what we are trying to see is that, a spot basis price in all the geographies, meaning sometimes you have dealers or brokers close to you, you can have monthly prices. In other parts, you have three months or four months, depending on the availability of the coke in the area. That's why it's different, the reduction, not only because by geographies, you can think that the coke price in met coke or anthracite is more or less the same around the world, but it's depending which kind of coke do you use or we use, in this case, in our plants, depending by geographies. That's why at the end, overall, coke price for us is a mixture of the different cokes we are using in the different geographies.
This is the average price where we are talking about, the gap of 110-120 EUR from the normal price in 2021.
Okay. But does that mean that you're kind of locked in at EUR 130 per ton for the first, let's say, quarter of 2024? Would that be a safe assumption?
It's an assumption.
Okay. All right. Okay, just another question, if I may. You kind of mentioned that you've increased productivity, which was a positive impact in Q3. Can you just explain just in a bit more detail what that exactly means and how that looks?
Well, productivity, now we are focused basically in capture the synergies after the acquisition of the U.S. plants. And mainly are coming from all the plants, first, in general speaking, but the main amounts are coming from the U.S. operation, where we are doing, applying the best practices that we are using in the rest of the plants. One of the things that you can consider is the lower coke consumption is one of our tasks, because not only because the prices, but I think that is something that we can really achieve. And it's something very important that, we reduce the price, but as well, reduce the coke consumption in each of the plants, especially in the U.S. plants, is what we are doing. We are capturing part of the synergies that we-- what the...
We were announcing from the acquisition, and we do expect to keep capturing from this year the rest of the synergies. Includes everything. The way of running the plants, maintenance, systems, and coke consumptions, and the way of running the furnace at the end of the day. Everything is included in our plans to do better and better every plant, but in this, especially in the US.
Okay, understood. And one final question. Just given you said that you expect Q4 to be in line with Q3, given the typical seasonality of, you know, maintenance shutdowns, you know, and it sounds like coke prices will be slightly lower, so what's kind of driving that assumption? Is there quite a bit of conservatism in this new guidance? Or, you know, why won't we see the seasonal improvement in Q4?
Well, it's a good question as well. I think that we are now at the end of October, that we can have a look on what's happening in this Q4. And normally, in our case, the Q4 is coming with a strong volumes production, because normally the maintenance, the standstill of the plants has been happened in the Q2 or Q3. And then, reflecting of the same prices that are still depressed and with the current physical stance, we don't see... I don't know if it is conservative or not, but we don't see a very big difference with the what we're doing in Q3 entirely, no.
So this is, this is what we see now in terms of what we are receiving and what the costs are still remain there, and the same prices are gonna be there in this, in this low level. So all in all, make us to see this Q4 the same level that Q3.
Okay, thank you very much.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from the line of Anis Zgaya with Oddo BHF. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you for taking my question. So my question is a follow-up of the last question. It's more or less the same question. Q4 was supposed to be much better than Q3, thanks to already higher Zinc LME prices and lower coke prices and probably better US refinery contribution. So why are you so cautious for Q4? Thanks.
Well, as I said before, I think that it's a combination on all the things that we are discussing. The production and the availability thus of the plants. Normally, it's higher, but depends on the pollution, and you probably heard that the steel production in Europe is becoming a little bit slow in rates. We do see that the cost and the coke prices is still not reducing a lot in US and other geographies, depending on the capacity utilization that we see in China and in other parts. All in all, what is making us is to be very difficult, that is gonna be higher than this. With those same price, which are strongly depends on what is gonna happen, but we don't see that now is gonna be increased.
So the level of this, together with the Steel Dust business, plus the aluminium business, which is depressing the margins of the transfer in the lower energy prices and becoming a little bit tight, all together makes it very difficult for us to see a very big increase over the first three quarters.
Thank you. Thank you.
The next question is a follow-up question, from Lasse Stüben with Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Hi again. Just maybe a question for Rafa. Just for your comments around China, and it sounds like, you know, you'll move a bit slower on Guangdong. What is the implication for, you know, an early look into your, you know, expansion in CapEx for next year? Does that mean you're probably gonna be sort of in line with this year, or how are you thinking about what are the big CapEx projects you'll have for next year?
... Yeah, I think we, we have it. Thank you, Lasse, for the question. We, as he has explained and throughout the presentation, the focus at the moment, given the current, challenging environment in China, the focus is in the US for sure. We see a clear growth opportunity there, so the focus is on Palmerton. If you recall, the Palmerton project is around EUR 60 million CapEx project, out of which we expect to spend this year, EUR 15 million-EUR 20 million, and the remaining next year. Regarding Guangdong, I think we will see very little CapEx. I mean, obviously, we will provide more details when we announce the guidance of 2024, but we see very little CapEx in 2024 for Guangdong.
Probably there is lastly one thing that we are considering, and the good opportunity for aluminium in US perhaps makes up make us to establish an amount of this, because could be a really, really good opportunity. But as Rafa said, the massively or the big amount, next year, we are focused in US and the rest we can monitoring and wait for 2025. So going for the massive investment in China and others. So we have a still time to handle this. Also, Lasse, just to finish up this one. On maintenance CapEx, recall that this year there's an extraordinary item. So I think maintenance CapEx on a run rate basis should be more around EUR 50-55, rather than the level of maintenance CapEx we're having this year. We will provide more details in the-
Okay.
-guidance.
Okay, okay. No, that's helpful. And one more on the US. You mentioned that US loans were lower, as you had expected. Is that because of the operational projects you have in Palmerton, or is this a market-related topic? That wasn't entirely clear to me.
Lasse, remember that normally we will explain that in previous calls and meetings. We have a issue with a contract that was lost during the process of the acquisition of the plant. That contract ended in 2021, so it was, you know, in 2022 affecting because some delay in the swap of the tonnages to other recyclers in this case. This is something that we are little by little recovering based on the U.S. market, and we are recovering already in 2023. But it's true, that is a big effect at the beginning of the... When you compare with 2022. But we do hope that it's gonna be better.
Again, probably in 2025, we are gonna be even over the volumes that we were facing in 2022, and this is what our expectation, and for sure, 2025 and 2026 are gonna be better. So the reason is a very particular matter about the contract that was lost in 2022-2021, 2022.
Okay, understood. Thanks so much.
Thank you, Lasse.
Our next question is with, with the line of Niklas Becker with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning, gents. Just a quick question touching on China. I appreciate the color on current utilization levels, and that overall volumes have been lower than expected. Just in terms of your new guidance for 2024, does this imply any earnings contribution in China at all? And also for 2024, would you expect a significant pickup in volumes across your two plants there? Thank you.
Thank you very much, Niklas, for the question. Yes, as I said before, I think the trend is changing little by little in China, and we see better deliveries to the plant in Jiangsu and even in Henan through the last months, and we do hope that is gonna come in 2024. We don't know if China economy recovery, real estate, and everything is gonna come as we expect, but it's true that could not be worse than this 2023. So the volume that we have now in mind, about 70% of the Jiangsu for the 2023 at the end of the year, will become probably much higher in the range of 80%-90% or even more. We'll see.
In the Henan plant, probably we can bring the operations to the level even than Jiangsu. Reason for that, again, is the recovery in the steel production, especially in electrical furnace route, because it's what is suffering more because as you probably know, is attending more the kind of steel products for the construction business. And this is basically what we see that is gonna happen little by little. And second, we are better established at the country and in the regions, and we are having permits to get that for the surrounding provinces of our plant. That for sure is increasing the portfolio of steel producers that we can attend.
So now all in all, is making us that 2024, if not a year of full, you know, contribution for China in the idea that we have for the future, is gonna be really, really much higher than in 2023. No doubt of that.
Great, thank you. Then just a second question on your CapEx for the current year. You've reported some EUR 84 million in the first nine months, including a EUR 15 million relating to the recovery of Hanover. What do you expect heading into Q4?
Well, most of the maintenance CapEx has been already spent. So we expect just another EUR 10 million of CapEx, with some leftover from maintenance and the majority from growth in the Hanover, in the Palmerton plant in the US. So for the full year, we should be aiming at around EUR 95 million, something around that.
All right. Thanks.
Thank you, Niklas.
The next question is a follow-up question from Michael Hoffman with Stifel. Please go ahead.
I think as you can hear, all of us are a little struggling a little bit about how to forecast next year. Can you give us a little more visibility on your actual utilization?
... By major regions. So what do you think 2023 utilization is in China, US, and the rest of the world? And then where you think that utilization is going in 2024? And, this is in the electric arc furnace business.
Michael, yeah. Well, if I say, starting for China, we do hope that it's gonna be increased, the utilization rate, that in the range of this year, could be 60%-70% in Jiangsu to 30%-40% in Henan. This will probably become to levels of around 90% in Jiangsu and 60%-70% in Henan. This is the increase in China. In the case of Europe, well, no matter the some announcement of the steelmakers are doing at the last part of the year, we do hope that probably is gonna be in the same level of this 2023 year. Well, someone is telling that the worst is coming, and then it start the recovery.
So in any case, we are running the capacity of the plants basically full capacity, and meaning in the range of 90% with the maintenance stop. So we don't see any reason for Europe to don't be at the level. In the case of U.S., as I say, probably we are gonna increase little by little the production through the new contracts and the new establishment of the plants, and I think that we can increase around something like 5%, 10%, more, more, more capacity utilization. For Asia, Korea, and Turkey, probably the level will be the same or even a little bit more in the case of Korea, 10%. So I don't know.
I mean, the theoretical capacity and the production that we are having this year, as I say, during the speech, is around 70%. It will be not crazy to think in a global of 80% or something like that, capacity utilization in the steel long region in 2024. Well, that could be, you know, be more accurate for the future when we do the guidance, but I think that is, a 10% on a global basis could be a good reference to start to figure it out.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you, Michael.
Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I hand back to Rafael Pérez for closing comments.
Thank you all for your questions. You can also contact the investor relations team of Befesa for any further clarification. We will now conclude the conference call and the Q&A session. Let me remind you that you can find the webcast and dial-in details to access the recording of this conference call on our website, www.befesa.com. Thank you very much to all of you, and have a good day.