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Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Nov 3, 2022

Maximilian Schöberl
Head of Corporate Communications and Policy, BMW Group

Ladies and gentlemen, colleagues, good morning, and welcome to our conference call of BMW Group third quarter 2022. There's a slight change to the agenda today. Nicolas Peter, Member of the Board of Management BMW AG Finance will be the one who will be giving you the overview of business development and the key figures of BMW Group. After that, he is, of course, ready to take your questions.

The reason for this is our CEO, Oliver Zipse, cannot be with us today. He is participating in the trip to China with Federal Chancellor Scholz and members of business representatives. Let me just make a few remarks. BMW Group is a global company, and it is in 140 countries that we sell our vehicles. We produce at 31 plants in 15 countries, and we maintain a global research and development network. Europe, with our home market, Germany, as well as Asia and China and America, including the United States, count among our most important markets. All over the world, we are very strong and reliable partners with a long-term focus.

Today, as the global company, our industry is closely intertwined. This is why we continue to work for cooperation across countries and constructive work together. From our point of view, this is the only right way in order to also tackle the major issues of our times, above all, climate change. What matters here are the major regions such as China, Europe, and the United States. With their influence and their economic power, they make a, or they can make and have to make, a significant contribution.

Protectionism is something that diametrically opposes these endeavors. We need dialogue. This is why our CEO is very happy to be part of the delegation of our Federal Chancellor Scholz. Now, said enough, I will now give the floor to our Member of the Board of Management for Finance, Nicolas Peter.

Nicolas Peter
Member of the Board of Management for Finance, BMW AG

Thank you, Max, for these words of introduction. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. In the third quarter, BMW Group delivered a very solid performance. In a globally highly volatile business environment, we can look back on a successful quarter. Sales totaled just under 508,000 vehicles, which is on par with the strong prior year quarter. The EBIT margin in the Automotive segment came in at 8.9%, which is at the high end of our target range for 2022.

The semiconductor shortage and supply chain disruptions have been with us all year. Not to mention, bottlenecks in vehicle and parts logistics, partly due to pandemic-related lockdowns in China. All of these things have disrupted production. Since we were unable to fully meet demand, we adjusted our volume targets at the half-year mark. For the full year, we're targeting slightly lower sales than in 2021. That is with solid growth forecasted for the second half of the year. After the third quarter, we're on track to meet this goal.

Thanks to our flexible production network, we once again did an excellent job of steering the BMW Group through the difficult supply situation in the third quarter. From Purchasing to Supplier Management to Sales and Marketing, our employees are delivering the highest standard of performance each and every day and are doing everything they can to meet customer demand.

We are partnering with our suppliers to continuously optimize our processes and make them more effective and more efficient. Flexibility and operational excellence are what make the BMW Group resilient. Our sales are also benefiting from our presence in the key three regions of the world, Europe, the Americas, and Asia, as well as from a highly attractive and updated model. This became especially clear in the month of September, where sales grew by 6.6% compared to the same month of last year.

Our order books remain full, in particular, for our highly attractive range of all-electric models. Here, we continue to see dynamic growth. In the first nine months, we delivered more than 128,000 BEVs to customers, an increase by 114.8% compared to the previous year.

Ladies and gentlemen, let's take a look at the financial key figures for the first nine months. I'll start at group level. Third quarter revenues were up 35.3% on the previous year, reaching just under EUR 37.2 billion. Revenues for the first nine months climbed to EUR 103 billion. This significant increase in revenues mainly resulted from the full consolidation of our Chinese joint venture, BBA.

Group earnings before tax for the third quarter reached EUR 4.1 billion, which is 20% higher than the already strong result in the same quarter in the previous year. Pre-tax earnings September year-to-date totaled just under EUR 20.3 billion. This 54% increase over the previous year largely came from the fair market valuation of previously held equity interests in BBA, which resulted in a one-time effect of around EUR 7.7 billion.

The group EBT margin came in at 11% for the third quarter and 19.6% for the first nine months. Our research and development costs, in accordance with IFRS, totaled just under EUR 4.9 billion for the year to the end of September. This represents a year-on-year increase of 12.6%. The R&D ratio, according to the German Commercial Code, stood at 4.7% at the end of September.

Due to the strong increase in revenues, this figure was 0.6 percentage points lower than for the same period last year. We expect the figure for the full year to be within our target range of 5%-5.5%. We're constantly working on the future of sustainable individual mobility and the long-term transformation of the BMW Group.

To achieve this, we're investing in new models, including our Neue Klasse. In the third quarter, we once again pushed forward with electrification of our vehicle fleet and digitalization. For example, the Leipzig plant launched its second line for standard production of battery modules. This way, the plant is making an important contribution to supplying the growing number of electrified vehicles with battery components.

At the Dingolfing plant, we rolled out an innovative digital system for the production of axle support. This makes us more flexible and ensures optimal use of our production capacity. Capital expenditure for the first nine months of 2022 totaled just under EUR 4.7 billion, EUR 2 billion more than the figure for the previous year. More than 40% of this increase is the result of investment at BBA.

In the first nine months, investment was also focused on the ramp-up of e-mobility. We expect to see the usual seasonal increase in investment activity in the fourth quarter. The CapEx ratio for the year to the end of September was 4.5%. For the full year 2022, we expect a CapEx ratio of around 5.5%. Ladies and gentlemen, let's move on to the individual segments.

Let's begin with the Automotive segment. Segment revenues for the third quarter totaled EUR 32.3 billion and were therefore 42.7% higher year-on-year. Revenues for the year-to-date reached a new all-time high of EUR 89 billion. The full consolidation of BBA made a significant contribution to this increase. Other operational business factors also benefited revenues. We're still able to ask for good prices for our vehicles.

In combination with a consistently strong model mix and positive development in pre-owned car markets, we were able to more than offset the impact of the decrease in sales. Currency translation effects also played a part due to the weak euro. The cost of sales in the Automotive segment reached EUR 27.3 billion in the third quarter and EUR 75.4 billion for the first nine months. This is 30% higher than for the same period of last year.

Here, once again, the full consolidation of BBA into the group financial statements contributed to the operational increase in the year-on-year comparisons. Headwinds from the full consolidation had a total impact of EUR 2.7 billion. Of this amount, depreciation from the purchase price allocation accounted for around EUR 1.4 billion as planned.

Around EUR 1.3 billion in intercompany profits from inter-group deliveries were eliminated in the first half year. In the first nine months, we also saw an increase in costs for materials and logistics of almost EUR 2 billion, partly due to the developments in raw material and energy prices. The higher percentage of electrified vehicles also contributed to the increase in costs.

The segment's third quarter operating results totaled just under EUR 2.9 billion, a 63.6% increase on the same quarter last year. EBIT for the year to the end of September was only slightly lower than last year's at EUR 7.7 billion. However, the figure for 2021 included the partial release of the provision for the EU antitrust proceedings.

EBIT for the current year was also impacted by the effects from the full consolidation of BBA that I already mentioned. Overall, we've seen a high earnings quality, which is also reflected in the EBIT margin. The figure for the third quarter was 8.9%, and for the first nine months, it was 8.7%. This keeps us on track for the high end of our target range of 7%-9% for the full year.

Excluding the consolidation effects mentioned above, the EBIT margin would be 10.1% for the quarter and 11.7% for the first nine months. This underlines the strong operating performance of our core business. The segment's financial results for the year to the end of September totaled around EUR 8.2 billion and was therefore EUR 6.5 billion higher year-on-year.

The main driver for this was the revaluation of the previously held BBA shares, resulting in a one-time effect of EUR 7.7 billion. The at-equity results decreased by just under EUR 1.4 billion since earnings from the BBA joint venture were only included until 10th of February. Free cash flow in the Automotive segment totaled EUR 9.9 billion at the end of September. It includes an inflow totaling EUR 5 billion from the acquisition of BBA's liquid funds in the first quarter.

In the third quarter, free cash flow stood at EUR 2.1 billion, primarily due to the high operating profits. In the fourth quarter too, we will see increased investments in electromobility. We also expect higher advance tax payments as a result of business profit. For the full year, we're therefore still targeting a free cash flow of at least EUR 10 billion. In the financial services segment, just over 1.18 million new contracts were concluded with retail customers in the first nine months of the year. This decrease of 21.9% from the previous year reflects higher interest rates in general and the price increases associated with them. At the same time, competition remains intense in the Financial Services sector.

In addition, the tight supply situation over the course of the year led to limited availability of new vehicles. Thanks to our strong product mix and higher transaction prices, we have been able to partially offset the downtick in the new contracts with the higher contract volume of financed vehicles. The volume of new business from all financing and leasing contracts with retail customers was therefore only 13.2% lower than for the same period of last year. Segment earnings before tax for the first nine months amounted to nearly EUR 2.7 billion, which represented decrease by 8.6% compared to the strong prior year. We continue to see high income from the resale of our end-of-lease vehicles, especially in the U.S. and Europe.

In contrast to last year, the macroeconomic parameters and overall conditions for consumers have deteriorated. For this reason, we recognized higher provisions for credit risks in the third quarter. Nevertheless, the credit loss ratio currently remains at a historically low level. In the Motorcycle segment, we sold just over 159,000 units from our attractive product portfolio by the end of September. This means we were once again able to surpass the results for the same period of last year by 1.7%. Segment EBIT for the first nine months was on par with last year at EUR 322 million. The EBIT margin came in at 13%.

Ladies and gentlemen, let's now move on to the outlook for our key performance indicators. Owing to the full consolidation of BBA, we expect group pretax earnings to be significantly higher. The number of group employees will also increase significantly due to the integration of BBA staff. In the Automotive segment, we anticipate a significant year-on-year increase in deliveries in the fourth quarter. We're therefore able to confirm our guidance for the full year, targeting slightly lower sales.

The percentage of deliveries from electrified vehicles is also forecast to increase significantly, and the number of all-electric vehicles should more than double. We expect the EBIT margin in the Automotive segment to be within the range of 7%-9%. The CO2 emissions performance indicator for our new EU vehicle fleet is developing better than originally forecast.

Driven by the rapid ramp-up of our all-electric models, we now expect a moderate reduction in CO2 emissions for our EU fleet for the full year rather than a slight reduction. In the financial services segment, we can confirm our target range of 17%-20% for our return on equity. In the motorcycle segment, we anticipate a slight increase in deliveries with an EBIT margin within our target range of 8%-10%.

Our guidance does currently assume or does currently not assume that Russia's interruption of the gas supply will lead to a production standstill in 2022. However, we do expect costs for energy, materials, and manufacturing to remain high. The macroeconomic environment remains dominated by high inflation and rising interest rates. This is causing conditions for consumers to deteriorate, which will affect their behavior in the coming months.

We therefore continue to expect our higher-than-average order books to normalize, especially in Europe. Our guidance does not take into account any significant tightening of sanctions against Russia or reactive measures by Russia. The possibility of the conflict spreading outside of Ukraine or of significant prolonged lockdowns in response to the pandemic are also not included in our guidance assumptions. Ladies and gentlemen. Although our environment remains volatile, the BMW Group is still on course to meet its targets for financial year 2022.

We expect to post significant sales growth in the fourth quarter. After increasing levels of production during the third quarter, we plan to reduce inventories, especially in the overseas markets. We're also counting on high sales numbers for our all-electric models, given the strong customer demand for e-mobility. A growing number of forecasts for 2022 predict that Germany and parts of Europe will enter into recession.

The U.S. and China are likely to fare slightly better. Despite these signs, the BMW Group's dynamic growth will continue. Thanks to our attractive product range and expertise in the field of e-mobility, we're in a strong competitive position. Our globally balanced sales and production strategy allows us to respond quickly and flexibly to different market developments. We're seeing continuing high demand for our products. Our all-electric vehicles are especially popular. The BMW iX and BMW i4 are a hit with our customers.

Orders are particularly strong for both these models. The long-wheelbase version of our 3 Series, the BMW i3, has been produced in China since the middle of the year and is being extremely well-received in the Chinese market. The BMW iX1 and the BMW i7 will also be in the showrooms before the end of the year. With the iX1, we're offering one of our high-volume models as a pure electric vehicle. This will provide the next impetus for our accelerated ramp-up of electromobility.

The all-electric i7 demonstrates the BMW Group's capacity for innovation like no other vehicle. It sets new standards for digitalization and electrified driving experience. Further momentum will come next year from the continued renewal of our product range. The introduction of the BMW i5 is another important step towards electrification of our full model lineup.

Ladies and gentlemen, the BMW Group remains focused on the long term. We are setting the course today for the successful future of our company. Our high profitability gives us the room to invest in targeted and continuous manner in the long-term transformation of the BMW Group. In September, we presented the sixth generation of our BMW battery cells.

The newly developed BMW round cell is optimized for the future vehicle architecture of our Neue Klasse. It represents an enormous technological leap, an increase of 20% in energy density, a 30% increase in range, and a 30% increase in charging speed. The cost of the high voltage battery will be reduced by up to 50%. Our partners will be investing in a total of six factories to produce the BMW round cell.

In keeping with our local for local strategy, the sites will be spread across the key regions of Europe, China, and the Americas. The next highlight on our road to the Neue Klasse will follow in January 2023. At the CES in Las Vegas, we'll be unveiling a vision vehicle that will underpin our digital expertise. The future of the BMW Group is electric, circular, and digital. We're steering the BMW Group prudently through current market volatilities while keeping our sights set firmly on the future. We're in an excellent position to shape the transformation and achieve our long-term strategic objectives.

Thank you. This was Nicolas Peter, Member of the Board of Management, Finance. We'll now start our Q&A session. I would like to ask the colleagues to now give the technical instructions for the conference.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we begin with the Q&A session now. If you'd like to ask a question, please push the keys zero and one on your telephone. One by one, you will be given the opportunity to ask your question. In order to withdraw a question, push the keys zero and two on your telephone. If you're listening over your loudspeaker today, please ask your questions by picking up the receiver. Thank you, and a moment, please, for the first question. First question is Wilfried Eckl-Dorna. Your line is open.

Wilfried Eckl-Dorna
Automatives and Industrials Journalist, Bloomberg

Good morning. I have a couple of questions. One about demand. How does demand currently develop in Europe? It's somewhat flattening. How large is your order book still in Europe? And by when are you able to fulfill orders in Europe? Now in connection with that, Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares today said that he has concerns, especially in Europe, that demand will be slowing down in the middle of next year. What's BMW's opinion on that? Do you share that concern? Are there any indications already that demand at BMW in Europe could significantly decrease? That's one thing.

The other topic I'd like to ask questions on is the current situation in Europe. Does BMW already have to support its suppliers because they have trouble because of increased material and energy costs? And which measures are you taking? Are you giving discounts on prices, on or prepayments? And then the third issue that relates to the E-cars. First of all, I don't quite understand, in your former guidance, sales of E-vehicles was to more than double, and now you're just talking about doubling. What is the true guidance? And to which extent is it, this is in China, that you want to expand your position in electrified vehicles given the dominance of local suppliers there? Does that give rise to concerns? And how do you want to compete with those local suppliers?

And then a third question also relating to China with the Oxford plant, the MINI plant. Great Wall Motor said now that the E-MINIs are produced in China, they said they might have interest in that as well, you know, and like, in trying to produce models of their brand in Oxford. What's your opinion on that?

Maximilian Schöberl
Head of Corporate Communications and Policy, BMW Group

Mr. Eckl-Dorna, we have received six questions from you to give a rough estimate. Instead of three, it's actually six. That's an increase by 100%. There we go. I mean, we'll try and give an answer to each one of those questions, but we'll try and be brief so that others have an opportunity to ask their questions as well. Let me begin with the beginning. The first question related to demand in Europe, then the supplier situation, then E-mobility, specifically in China. Then there was a question about the Oxford plant and Great Wall Motor. Mr. Peter, please.

Nicolas Peter
Member of the Board of Management for Finance, BMW AG

Let's begin with E-mobility, Mr. Eckl-Dorna. More than doubling. If you look at the figures as per September, we are pretty good on track, especially with the i4 and the iX, but also with MINI Electric and iX3, we've got a pretty good order book. With the i7 that we've just presented to the media, we have already received great feedback. As of the weekend, you'll be able to read about it in the press as well. With the iX1, we now have a very strong volume model that will be launched. It's fully electric, and we're right on track here as well. There is a more than doubling to be expected.

Second question relating to demand. We continue to have a pretty full order book in Europe, and it will remain so way into the year 2023. To be honest, this is not surprising if you look at the current environment in Europe. In some important markets, we have pretty high two-digit inflation. We're talking about above 10% given at the same time, increasing interest rates, increasing costs for energy. It's quite understandable that demand will flatten out somehow.

However, in September and also now in October, with the introduction of the X1, you see, especially for Europe, the X1 is a very important model. Again, we have been able to generate quite good momentum. Well, this is why we're making this balanced forecast. We do see a slight decrease in new orders coming in. Especially, we see fewer orders coming in from the South European markets. I mean, in France, the level of inflation is somewhat lower, and we see more of that, in fact, in Germany and in England.

The suppliers, do we support any of them? Well, this is a known fact in the industry. We have a pretty good relationship with our suppliers. There is no such thing as a general statement from us. I mean, we truly have a very dedicated consideration of individual cases. We're in a continuous exchange with each individual supplier. For this reason, we're quite optimistic that despite the complex underlying situation, we will be able to maintain our production as planned.

N ext question related to the Oxford plant. Basically, what I can say is the Oxford plant is an integral component of BMW production structure. Let's say it's the heart of MINI production, and it will remain so. In Oxford, we'll see the next generation of the three-door and five-door hatch models of the MINI Cooper. In addition to that, I don't know whether that's a well-known fact already, the MINI Convertible will return to Oxford in 2025, and further plans will then be announced at a suitable time.

Operator

Thank you so much, Mr. Eckl-Dorna from Bloomberg. Next question, please. Markus Klausen, Dow Jones.

Markus Klausen
Managing Editor, Dow Jones

Hello to Munich. Thanks for giving us the opportunity to ask questions. I have three questions. What were the reasons to confirm the forecast for the range ends up at the upper end, and you've confirmed that. In view of what you said about September business, which was very good, if you look at Germany in October, I guess there'll be a leap in sales. It could very well be that you could actually be above the forecasted range. A little disappointed today, actually, that you only confirmed your guidance and could perhaps give the reasons for that.

Second question, price development in the current year and also previously was pretty good, development of prices with used and new cars. Now, for the next year, what do you expect? Will that remain stable? The third question on the outlook for 2023. Now, Peter, you said that the growth momentum at BMW will continue. Does that relate to sales or revenues, or is that more something like a general guidance?

Maximilian Schöberl
Head of Corporate Communications and Policy, BMW Group

Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Klausen. Let me summarize. Margin confirmed. Why not an increase? Then the price development, also expectations for 2023, and growth dynamics next year. Well, Mr. Peter, please.

Nicolas Peter
Member of the Board of Management for Finance, BMW AG

Okay. Margin confirmed. I think that's good news, isn't it? We're confirming our guidance, and we'll be at the upper end of our range. We continue to have a positive effect, especially as you rightly mentioned, in terms of volume. We're doing well in terms of volume, and September also proves this. In terms of price, we're doing well, too.

However, as I mentioned in my speech, we have slightly higher logistics costs and material costs, and all of that has the effect that from today's point of view, we are assuming that we'll end up at the higher end of our range. Price development, 2023. Well, it's too early to say anything, and this sort of answers your third question as well. It's really too early to give a guidance right now.

Due to our good product momentum and despite a difficult environment or a volatile environment, as I described, we are quite confident for 2023. Why is that? Well, there'll be a new X1 coming, an iX1, a very, very important model for us and t hat will certainly give us some momentum. At the upper segment of our portfolio, we'll have the new 7 Series, and the i7, we are receiving lots of orders for that already. There'll be a revised X7, again, a product which plays an important role for our margin, makes an important contribution. In the course of the year, there'll be a new 5 Series coming.

All of this is positive input in order to have good momentum despite a difficult environment. Now, quite specifically, talking about price development, here we continue to see, and this is also due to the leasing markets. I mean, we have pretty good residual values. They are very stable in the U.S. and also in the large leasing markets of Germany and U.K.

We're assuming that this will also continue next year because in 2023, the first end-of-lease vehicles will be coming back from the COVID years. Due to COVID, we simply had less production, fewer sales, and there's fewer cars being returned. This will obviously have an effect on price quality in 2023.

Operator

Thank you, Markus Clausen. Next question, please. Christina Amann, Thomson Reuters.

Christina Amann
Senior Correspondent, Thomson Reuters

Good morning, Mr. Peter. Good morning, Mr. Schöberl. You already gave some answer regarding pricing dynamics next year. Mr. Peter, earlier you talked about residual values. Now, how about the new cars and their prices? How will they develop? You already announced that you will not reduce prices. You don't want to give any discount in order to strengthen sales. What's the BMW strategy here compared?

Then second topic, energy. You mentioned that BMW is not assuming in the current year that they will be having to reduce production due to gas shortage. What about the entire winter? I mean, until March, April, whatever. I mean, we're starting late right now, but it can still get pretty cold even in April. Have you hedged against that as well, or can you make some more detailed comments on that? In the margin, the range of 7%-9% was reduced coming from the long-term range of 8%-10%. Now, the 8%-10% range, is that something that you're envisaging again for next year, or is it too early to comment on it? Then about China, Mr. Zipse is traveling with Mr. Scholz. He's going to China today. What's your opinion on the market development there?

Maximilian Schöberl
Head of Corporate Communications and Policy, BMW Group

Thank you, Ms. Amann. Four points. Let me summarize. The first one is about price dynamics, residual values, the BMW strategy concerning discounts, then the cold winter, especially between January and March. What are the effects of the gas problem, then the margin, and then the market development in China. Mr. Peter.

Nicolas Peter
Member of the Board of Management for Finance, BMW AG

Okay, Ms. Amann, I think I'll begin with the margin. 7%-9%, we're at the upper end of this range, which means we're also within, as you rightly said, the very long-term range of 8%-10%. Now, as we had explained and as we have communicated, I mean, if you consider that special effect from BBA, from the full consolidation, and if you take that out, then we're in fact above the range in 2022. We're in a two-digit at a two-digit figure, and this, I think, underlines the profitability and the resilience of the BMW Group.

The question relating to 2022, as you can imagine, we'll answer that or we'll talk about it together when we meet again March next year. It's simply too early now. Based on today's knowledge, I think a lot of positive things happen politically, we're not assuming that there will be any interruptions in production over the course of the winter in the European markets. That's, at least, that's our assumption. We ourselves, well, a reduction of about 15% is something we could imagine. We'd be okay with that.

As far as the price dynamics and the residual values are concerned, I mean, we have further improved our processes in particular, so the balance between supply and demand. Together with our dealers in the most important markets, we agreed that we'll work with slightly less inventory. That's in fact, I mean, the positive price dynamics. They will be supported by that. China and further market development, it's like I said, we're not pessimistic as far as China is concerned.

Right now we have a mix. Well, it's an up and down. Why is that? That's because of the COVID situation. Basically, there's pretty good demand for our products. However, due to lockdowns, repeated lockdowns, we keep having these interruptions. A little more than 10% of our operations in China are closed due to COVID. Of course, that also affects sales. We're assuming that over the next few weeks, this will become more balanced once we get to see a more positive development in infections due to those COVID measures.

Operator

Thank you. The next question, please. Vann Hubbert, Handelsblatt.

Speaker 11

Good morning. Thank you for your time. I have two brief questions. One about Mr. Zipse traveling to China. Mr. Peter, why has the board of management come to the conclusion that it's a good idea now to do that now, that the timing isn't maybe a bad sign? Many think this would be seen as a legitimation of the authoritative or the restrictive political course of Mr. Xi Jinping. Is there any reactions from your partners in the U.S. to that? The other thing, most recently, I think it was in U.S. where Mr. Zipse emphasized it would be dangerous if only very few wealthy people could afford new cars. What does BMW actually do in order to make such a new car more affordable?

Maximilian Schöberl
Head of Corporate Communications and Policy, BMW Group

Okay, I'll summarize your questions, Mr. Hubbert. The first one related to China, participation of Mr. Zipse in the trip and possible reactions from the U.S., that I'm not aware of. I can tell you that now already. Second part of your question was mobility being affordable and what does BMW do to keep new cars affordable. Mr. Peter.

Nicolas Peter
Member of the Board of Management for Finance, BMW AG

Let's start. Why is it basically a good idea to talk to partners in China? There's a couple of very important elements. First of all, from our point of view, the cooperation with China is indispensable also in order to be able to implement important political things for the Green Deal, for example. China is not a risk, but it's an opportunity. China presents an opportunity, and we have a high interest in taking this opportunity by talking with each other and by then implementing corresponding projects.

This is important, in particular, as you bear in mind that, you know, China together with the U.S. is our most important foreign market. It was more than two years ago that we went to China last time, and this is now a good time. It's a good opportunity to restart our discussions. Especially when you talk about e-mobility, China will be a very important driver.

We're assuming that by 2030, at least 50%, and you know our sales figures, and we expect that 50% of our sales in China will be fully electric vehicles. We're on a good track here. I mentioned the i3, the iX1 is manufactured there. There'll be further models, fully electric vehicles coming from China. What's really important in this context is the relationship with our partners in China.

This is something that happens on eye level, and in order to make this possible, it's very important to talk to each other. The second question, affordability. I mean, BMW, we're a premium car manufacturer. We're in the premium business, MINI, BMW and Rolls-Royce, with all three brands. Still, nonetheless, it's important to us in order to also secure our sustainable profitability to continue to work in our cost structures.

For this reason, we decided to start the Neue Klasse and the 6th generation of battery cell technology to take the next steps there. I mentioned this, that this next generation, depending on a vehicle, can actually reduce cost by up to 50%. This is quite decisive, a decisive step on the way to electrification and implementation of the Green Deal.

Operator

Thank you. Next question, please. Daniel Zwick, Die Welt. Good morning.

Daniel Zwick
Automatives and Industrials Journalist, Die Welt

I have two questions. One that also touches on China. Do you think, or is that, is it your strategy in the future to produce even more vehicles in China and then to export them into other regions of the world, such as the E-MINI, for example? Another question relating to the economic outlook for Europe. You said you're expecting a recession. What are the factors of economic development in Europe next year that you're most worried about? Thank you.

Nicolas Peter
Member of the Board of Management for Finance, BMW AG

Thank you, Mr. Zwick. That's China and the outlook EU. Well, Mr. Zwick, BMW is probably one of the car manufacturers that has the best geographic distribution across the world. We're very strong in Europe. We're firmly anchored here. We have the largest plant in the U.S., but also we're very strong in Asia.

Talking about strength in Asia, we must not only talk about China, we also need to talk about markets such as Korea, a market that is developing very, very well, or Japan, we're quite confident there as well. This is really a very, very balanced picture. Production in China is mostly for the Chinese market. Most of the production in China is intended for the Chinese market.

With the MINI Electric, we will then also export to other markets. In view of the truly excellent quality of the product, we think this is the right step, and it's a little more than two years ago that we already communicated this step. Outlook E.U. and recession. Well, I've mentioned the factors that are important in Europe. It's increase in interest rates, inflation, but in particular in the large markets such as Germany and U.K.

I already said that the picture in South Europe is slightly different, markets such as Italy, France, and also Spain. These are the factors that we are keeping an eye on. Still we're assuming that despite the difficult situation, because of our strong portfolio, we can go into the next year with confidence because we're coming with products, with fully electrified products, which go very well in those economic conditions. As I just mentioned, in the UKL segment, we are launching products of which we're convinced that they can also make a major contribution.

Operator

T hank you for the question, Daniel Zwick. We now have about 10 minutes left. Can I ask for the next question, please? Lea Kanell, RP.

Maximilian Schöberl
Head of Corporate Communications and Policy, BMW Group

Thank you for the question. So this is about sales increases due to price increases and reasons for that. Mr. Peter, please.

Nicolas Peter
Member of the Board of Management for Finance, BMW AG

Well, firstly, in the most important markets, we increased the prices slightly more than in the past few years, and this applies to all important markets, really. At the same time, you can see this quite nicely if you look at Autodata figures. This was done because our products are highly desirable. So the incentive level was brought down on a very low level. At the same time, as I've mentioned, this is also the way that we continue to optimize supply and demand. We want to make sure that we have high overall price stability. These are the major reasons that play a role here.

Operator

Thank you. Next question, please. Lennart Wermke, Automobilwoche.

Lennart Wermke
Reporter, Automobilwoche

Thank you. Mr. Duesmann recently started a discussion where he said it would be okay to reintroduce car-free Sundays or a speed limit. What's your opinion on these, you know, in order to save energy?

Nicolas Peter
Member of the Board of Management for Finance, BMW AG

Well, Mr. Wermke, simple answer, we don't think that any of this is a good idea.

Operator

Okay. Thank you, Mr. Peter. Next question, please. Henning Peitsmeier, FAZ.

Henning Peitsmeier
Journalist, FAZ

Good morning, everyone. Dr. Peter, I have another question on China, the joint venture with Great Wall. Can you describe precisely how that works? How many MINIs will be exported from the Chinese plant? Just a percentage or a rough number. The local for local, I understand that, but in the case of MINI, I guess that doesn't apply. The second question, will Great Wall produce combustion engine cars of its own brand in Oxford?

Nicolas Peter
Member of the Board of Management for Finance, BMW AG

Let's begin with the second part of the question. Currently, this is not planned. Production of combustion engine cars in Oxford is not something we're planning. For further plans, I guess you'd have to direct your questions to the Great Wall management. The joint venture spotlight in China, that's a joint venture for development and production. We've had several test drives, and these are truly excellent vehicles that we have developed jointly and that we will produce.

There'll be about 3,000 employees working in that plant, and these are investments that we made jointly of around slightly or around EUR 650 million. Great Wall products will also be built in that plant, and in all, the capacity will of around 160,000 vehicles per year. We're now entering the final phase of preparation of serious production of our MINI products there. Thank you.

Lennart Wermke
Reporter, Automobilwoche

Can I just ask again, because you didn't answer my question. About half, 80,000 vehicles will then be electric MINIs, and those will then also be exported. I wanted to know a percentage.

Nicolas Peter
Member of the Board of Management for Finance, BMW AG

The ramp-up phase, that's 160,000 vehicles. How many of those will then be exported or will remain in China? That will depend on demand. We're flexible. It really depends on market development in the global regions on the one hand and in China on the other hand. It's important to be flexible here.

Operator

Thank you very much. We have time for two more questions. Next question, please. Mirko Reipka, Platow Brief.

Mirko Reipka
Chief Reporter, DER PLATOW Brief

Good morning. I have two brief questions. Mr. Peter, could you tell me something about the future dividend payout policy at BMW? You'll have an extremely good result this year. Is it safe to conclude that that will be reflected in the payout of dividends? For a long time, there's been discussion about a more flexible dividend payment policy. The second question with respect to the end of combustion engine cars in the EU. Far when it came to battery production, BMW always relied on partnerships. Will you also do that in the future, or can you exclude that you'll be producing your own batteries in the future?

Maximilian Schöberl
Head of Corporate Communications and Policy, BMW Group

Thanks, Mr. Reipka. Mr. Peter, please.

Nicolas Peter
Member of the Board of Management for Finance, BMW AG

Well, let's begin with the dividend policy for 2022, 2023. What exactly we'll do is something that we'll decide after we've had our financial accounts drawn up. In the past at least, I do not recall that we had a more flexible or discussed a more flexible dividend policy. We have a pretty sound structure in place, and from our point of view, from the current point of view, there's no reason to deviate from that.

Production of our own battery cells. We will briefly or shortly be opening a small cell manufacturing plant in Parsdorf near Munich, and this will enable us, after the opening of our battery center near Munich, to truly cover the entire process of development and manufacture of battery cells and moreover, the manufacture of the battery modules.

Well, to a major portion, this is already something that's being done in-house. This is not done by suppliers. Well, I actually thought in this context, I thought of a greater scale of sales, and that's something you haven't done yet. No, we're not planning anything like that. I mean, we've just communicated what we're planning to do in the U.S., and here too, we'll be working with a partner. Thank you.

Maximilian Schöberl
Head of Corporate Communications and Policy, BMW Group

Thank you very much. As I can see and as I can hear, there are no further questions. I would like to say thank you to Nicolas Peter for answering all the questions. Thanks, Nicolas Peter, for answering the questions. Thanks to the colleagues for their time today. Our conference call for Q3 is over. Thank you and all the best to you. Goodbye from Munich.

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