Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to our Q3 call. Our CEO, Oliver Zipse, and our CFO, Walter Mertl, are also back in the room with me. The line will be open shortly for your questions. The operator will first give you some technical instruction. Please go ahead.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin our Q&A session. If you have a question, we ask that you please use the raise hand function at the bottom of your Zoom screen, or if you have dialed in, please press star nine to enter the queue. Once your name has been announced, you can ask a question. If you want to withdraw your question, please lower your hand using the raise hand function in the Zoom app, or via telephone, press star nine. Thank you, and a moment for the first question, please. The first question is from George Galliers at Goldman Sachs. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.
Yeah, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. The first question I had was around the underlying profitability of the business. If we add back something in the region of EUR 800 million for the IBS provisioning, it would imply an auto margin of around 5%. And I think if we also look at your full year guidance, it would seem to suggest a margin in the range of 5%-7% for the fourth quarter. So is this the right way to think about the underlying level of profitability at BMW today, or are there still factors related to IBS that are suppressing the margin both in Q3 and Q4 on an underlying basis? The second question I had was with respect to your North American manufacturing footprint. Obviously, it's too early in terms of the election and what that might mean for trade and tariffs.
But could you just give us some insight into the flexibility you have in the plant in Spartanburg? Can you increase the capacity there? What kind of shift structure are you operating? And would that plant also be capable, in theory, of producing large sedans in the future? Thank you.
Thank you very much, George. We start with Walter and then Oliver. Walter, please.
Hello, George. Thank you for analyzing our high three-digit million warranty provision, which I didn't mention with these numbers, but quite close, but we shouldn't forget that more or less two weeks we lost on sales. That's the reason why sales is down in Q3, revenue is down, and automatically also profit, so that is the biggest impact in Q3, which we also stated in September. There's still an impact in Q4, so not everything is fully caught back, but still an impact there, and that's the reason why your math is absolutely right for the Q4. It must be something between 5% and 7% in the quarter to end up with 6%-7% year to date, 12% as we set our guidance, and we shouldn't forget also the mixed implication in Q3 because most of the IBS cars have been on the upper premium segment.
So that will turn back in Q4, also supporting it. But as I mentioned, in the quarter four, we still have some impact of IBS.
Thank you very much, Walter. And now we come to the second part of your question, manufacturing footprint in the U.S. Oliver, please.
Good morning, George. Let's look at three things. First of all, we are since 30 years in the United States with our own manufacturing facility, more than 50 years in the market as a key player there, very strong over more or less all segments with a very high manufacturing footprint. And that's my second point. We produce the most demanded vehicles in the United States. We produce there. The X3 is brand new, and we are very confident that this will be a good success in the United States as well. We also produce the X5, X6, X7, XM. It's all produced in the United States. So there's some natural cover-up against possible tariffs or whatever. But let's not speculate whether there are tariffs. It might also only be that this is a verbal issue.
Let's look at the results so far this year per October in the United States. We see a growing market for us. We sold more than 290,000 vehicles in the United States, and that's a growth by almost 7,000 units. So it's a growing market, and if you look only in October, we gained even more momentum. We sold 36,750 cars, and that's a growth by more than 20% against the previous year, plus of 7,300 cars. So the market is working really well for us. We seem to have the right product portfolio on the combustion engine side as well as on the electric side, so in the United States, I would think we almost have a perfect setup for the time to come.
Thank you very much, George. Next question, please.
The next question is from Tim Rokossa at Deutsche Bank. Please unmute yourself and begin with the question.
Yeah, thank you very much, Oliver and Walter. I would have two quick follow-ups to George's questions. I think what he was trying to get to with the first one is, is this underlying profitability level that we've now seen in Q3 pre the provisioning and that we are expecting for Q4, the right number to think about in an environment that we currently have in the world with weak China, EV transition, and so on and so forth, or is there scope to improve that from the levels that we're seeing here? And the second follow-up to that is, Oliver, in your exposure in the U.S., obviously we can see two things here. We can see a further escalation of the U.S.-China trade tensions, and we can see something, as you said, that may just be rhetorically from him right now on E.U. into U.S.
How many vehicles are you importing into the U.S. currently? How many are you exporting? If you could just update us on the number. And then my actual question is, the weakness of the sector that we're seeing right now is still China. It seems there's different perceptions of how this will play out. What's your game plan for China? Is this just a cyclic weakness that the auto industry is used to? We're seeing this in other markets before. We've been there in the U.S., we've been there in Europe. Or did something permanently break when it comes to demand for Western brands? What's your assessment? Thank you.
Okay, thank you very much. Tim, we start with Walter about Q3 and the game plan for China. Walter, please.
Hello, Tim. As I tried to mention, the 5%-7% margin calculated number for Q4 is rather the point, but going forward, our strategic target is still 8%-10%. Of course, we can't do any predictions, which we will do in March, because we also, based on all that's going on also in the U.S., have to see, and then we will give the right numbers accordingly, but our strategic numbers, which we are still aiming for, and we also mentioned that the ad hoc guidance is 8%-10% EBIT margin for our business, and in China, as we mentioned previously, we are growing on the BEV side. We have a 15% share of BEVs in the total market, and Mini just has launched. X3 is also going to claim back things because we are in the run-out of the X3 in China.
It's just an ordinary business so we will seek momentum also going forward.
Okay, thank you very much, Walter. And now, Oliver, to the exposure U.S. vehicle export numbers.
Yeah. Let's first not speculate on the outcome of the election and its consequences. Our nationwide footprint in the United States currently consists of about 30 locations in 12 states. So it's not only Spartanburg. And of course, our largest BMW plant as a single entity sits in the United States. To your question, 65%, so two-thirds of our local U.S. sales are produced in Spartanburg, mainly with the X models. And we are committed to investing further. As we stated before, we will electrify this plant as well. And we are investing there already as we speak with EUR 1.7 billion. The business we have there directly and indirectly provides and supports more than 120,000 jobs. I think this is very important to local politicians and contributes overall $43 billion to the U.S. economy.
So what I mean with that, we have a strong footprint there which kind of protects us against anything which might happen on the geopolitical side.
Thank you very much, Tim. Next question, please.
The next question is from Horst Schneider at Bank of America. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.
Yeah, hello. Can you hear me?
Yes, we hear you.
Okay, excellent. Great.
Go ahead, Horst.
Yeah, yeah. Thank you. First question that I have is, because you have got by now, I mean, in the quarterly report, you don't show these numbers anymore. You show that just in the annual report. Could you maybe tell us what was the amount of warranty provisions that you had at the end of nine months in the context of this recall? And when I think about that, the biggest lever by now for earnings for the future is to bring the warranty costs down. So could you give us maybe a feeling what measures you have taken in general to bring the costs down and how quick you expect these costs to come down? And what is the normal level of warranty provisions once you got all these issues under control? That would be very helpful.
The number two question that I have is, we have got by now, and I mean, several auto companies are saying they need to cut costs. I think in Germany, every auto company is saying that. I think it's due, but you had also an increase of employees in Germany. I think in Europe in general, you still open a plant. Given now the situation that we have that seems to be more difficult to push the sales through, do you see the need to cut more costs? And by when can we expect maybe kind of program you want to announce? Thank you.
Thank you very much, Horst. Walter, please.
Hello, Horst. So the warranty provision compared with year-end 2023 is more or less on the same level. Why is that? Yes, we have all new accruals on provisions, so additional warranty costs digested in the P&L. But on the other side, we also mentioned already that we pay off all these warranty provisions we had it for from last year. So yes, if you have a look for the principal on the warranty side, we have three major topics which you're all aware of. We had the airbag some years ago. We had AGR, and currently we are running on the IBS. So that all gets repaired and paid out. And based on that, we keep the level of provisions currently year to date, September. And these one-off effects, they rather last on the P&L side. Absolutely right.
Okay, thank you very much, Walter. Then we come to Oliver, please.
Efficiency is a cornerstone of our product strategy. There is a base ratio we put in all to our planning of 4%. And let's have a look at Europe. This is not a shrinking market for us. Again, if we look at month-to-date figures, we sold in Europe 620,000 cars, which is a considerable chunk of our complete product portfolio, and it grew by almost 50%. That's more than 7% growth in Europe. So we're not shrinking here in Europe. And let's have a look at the figures. Second of all, yes, we are opening a new plant. We opened the plant in Hungary with very, very competitive conditions. And that will strengthen also on the cost side our competitiveness against plants we have here in Germany. So we need capacities to grow, and we do grow, as you see.
Of course, the Hungary plant is a fully electric plant. As we said before, we grow with a BEV over all segments currently. The current situation does not change our plans at all.
Okay. Maybe can you tell us what is the reversal of warranty provisions we maybe see next year? Is it just the bookings you did, you know, in Q3? Or I think there should be more to come on top, right? Because as you say, you had basically three warranty cases.
As I mentioned, we are working on the repair of all these warranty cases. That's the reason why we have such a big amount on the short period disclosed end of last year. We're still working on those ones. Everyone is getting dealt with. IBS, as we also announced, is through by 2025.
Okay. Thank you.
Okay. Good, Horst. Thank you very much. Next question, please.
The next question is from Jose Asumendi at J.P. Morgan. The first question is, in order to protect the profitability in China, do you plan to change your powertrain mix? More ICE, less BEV to protect margins in the region, and any other measures you plan to take to protect the earnings and cash flow in the region? And the second question is, if global powertrain demand shift more towards BEV and mild hybrid, how is the powertrain portfolio of BMW ready to deal with this transition by 2030?
Okay. Yeah, yeah. We start first part of the question with Walter and then Oliver.
So on the powertrain mix in China, we shouldn't forget that 85% of the volumes sold in China is produced in China. And this will become even more with the new Mini to start, a fully electric Mini produced in Zhangjiagang. So that share will increase. And we will also, of course, have all these benefits in China cost-wise. So it's straight competitive. And maximum 15% is getting imported from outside China. So that is the reason why we're still absolutely convinced about that we have a protection of our earnings and hence the free cash flow.
Oliver.
The strength of BMW lies in its flexibility regarding powertrains, and that is true in all regions of the world, but very specifically in China. Let's have a look at the figures. Until this month, we sold 38,000 cars in China, which were purely electric, which was a growth of almost 5,000 units, so the pure BEV side is growing in China for us. It's not shrinking. What is shrinking is the complete market, but the majority of cars we sell in China is still pure ICEs, so to have that flexibility to respond in the market with super efficient ICEs and at the same time take part in the growth of the BEV segment is, I think, our secret. Now, your question is looking toward 2030. We will locate the Neue Klasse also in China.
So the battery electric-only vehicle segment, we will participate with that new architecture, and it will be very competitive in that market. It has to do with the new user interface. It has to do with the latest battery technology with round cells, as we have said many times before of the sixth generation. And it has to do with a very efficient architecture overall and with the newest level of digitalization and connectivity. So towards 2030, we are very happy with the flexible approach. And of course, on the plug-in hybrid side, we will have more or less in all segments a plug-in hybrid with BMW driving dynamics. And let's not forget the M division at the end of the day, which is very highly regarded in China. And of course, that heritage of M is something competitors don't have. Also, the new players don't have that.
That gives some strength to BMW as well if I look between now and 2030.
Thank you very much. Next question, please.
The next question is from Stephen Reitman at Bernstein. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.
Stephen, are you with us?
Yes. Good morning. Yes, good morning. Sorry.
Good morning.
I'm muted. Thank you very much. A question about China, really. To get some granularity really on what's going on there as well, please. First of all, obviously, you've mentioned about your BEVs are well accepted there. Could you comment about the reception of the i5, which you've priced at the same price as the 525Li? And secondly, could you comment on the state of your dealers? Because obviously, there's been some publicity about some high-profile closures, including a 5S dealership in Beijing, the Beijing Xingdebao, I believe. So is it about their own financial problems, or is it triggered by specifically anything's issues with BMW? Thank you very much.
Thank you very much. Stephen, Walter, please.
Hello, Stephen. Well, I think we are all aware of the pricing situation in China. It's different than in other regions. That's the reason why in China, we have the price on the i5 equal to the ICE car. You will find that across our product range. The dealer support you're referring to, that was, of course, in a three-digit million Euro position that we supported our dealers on profit as well as on liquidity in order to stabilize the situation, and that is coming straight to your next point, that of Chinese dealers. Yep, a lot of them are currently in loss, but they're not just facing performance issues. In some cases, it's also a financing issue. That means it's not just about profitability, but also liquidity. And indeed, GA, German Automotive, had an issue announced last week.
We, of course, care about all of our customers. They're always first priority. That means we are ensuring continuity with other dealers in their area so that we can still serve the customers with all the products they need.
Okay. Thank you very much, Stephen. Next question, please.
Question is from Philippe Houchois at Jefferies. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.
Philippe, are you with us? We don't hear you. Okay. I think we come to another question.
The next question is from Michael Punzet at DZ Bank. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.
Yes, Michael, good morning. I have one question with regard to your financial results. This was clearly negative in Q3. Could you explain the reasons for that? And is it fair to assume that a big bulk of that will reverse in Q4, taking into account the current interest rate levels?
Good. Yes, we understand. Thank you very much. The answer will come from Walter, please.
Hello, Michael. The key reason is the valuation of the fair value derivative side, the standalone derivatives. That has a major impact in September, end of September especially. We had decreasing interest rates, and that had an impact on our portfolio, plus some of the interest derivatives running out and got matured in Q3. That has this impact. Reversal in Q4, as you are fully aware of, valuation of these derivatives, interest rates increasing means we will have additions and positive effects. Interest rates still going down, we would have a negative effect. Mainly, this is in our Other Entitiy segment because this is the funding side for financial services, and they have a hedging strategy to fit with the interest derivatives.
Thank you very much, Walter and also Michael. So we are coming to our last question.
Final question is from Henning Cosman at Barclays. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.
Yeah, good morning. Thank you for taking the question. I have one on capital returns, please. Walter, you talked about the authorization for another EUR 10 billion over a five-year timeframe. Clarification of your net automotive liquidity, you suggested that you would be paying out a very high percentage of your free cash flow. But it seems like if we're spreading EUR 10 billion over five years and add that to the dividends, that doesn't quite add up to the mid-term target of around EUR 7 billion free cash flow. So I just wanted to understand the logic there. Is it possible to accelerate that to accommodate a higher payout ratio of free cash flow? Has anything changed since we had this meeting with you about this? That's the first question, please. The second question is the benefit from tariffs. I just wanted to understand your logic there.
I believe on the media call, you suggested even be a net beneficiary of the tariffs. I just wanted to understand how you think about that. Did you mean relative to Mercedes and Porsche, or how did you think about that? And final one, housekeeping one, could kindly break out the volume price mix by item. I think you usually do that. So it would be great to get that color. Thank you very much.
Okay. We start with Walter and then Oliver.
Hello, Henning. Well, from a legal point of view, we always apply for 10% related to five years. That is our legal frame. And so we did in 2022 when we also requested 10% share buybacks for five years that would have concluded in 2027. As I just mentioned, our second program will be concluded by end of April 2025. And then we would still have EUR 1 billion left. So it will conclude anywhere earlier than 2027. That's the reason why we propose, I have to say, we propose, it's an AGM decision ultimately, we propose to have a further 10% and based on legal question again for five years. And whether we accelerate or not depends, of course, on free cash flow. As we always said, free cash flow of automobile is then paid out via dividend, 30%-40% of our profit and optional by our share buybacks.
That is still the case. I just refer to our AGM proposal, which is based on legal things.
Thanks, Walter. Oliver.
If you are a local producer with a local footprint, you are, of course, benefiting in case there's something changing on the tariff side. And I think that was meant in the last call that we benefit from these tariffs. And that is true in China, where we produce 85% of the local sales volume, and specifically also in the United States, where we have more than two-thirds of our production volume is sold in the United States. And that's a kind of a natural protection you have there.
Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. We have reached the end of the telephone conference. Now, breakdown of volume price mix. Sorry, I'm coming back, Walter. It's the last question for you. Breakdown of volume price mix per item for Q3 .
As I mentioned in my speech, it is all coming down. Volume, of course, heavily impacted because of IBS, which also led to elevated inventory side. That is a key element. Mix is also down because IBS is heavily impacting our upper premium segment cars, meaning MKL, GKL. So there's this real weighting. And the pricing side is a high three-digit negative quarter-over-quarter Q3 2023 versus quarter three this year. And that is rather based on the previous year, our results.
Good.
Thank you.
Thank you very much, Walter. Thank you very much, Oliver. So we have reached the end of the telephone conference. Thank you for joining us. All the best to you and bye-bye and [Foreign language] from Munich.