Dear ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Brenntag AG Q3 2017 results call. At our customers' request, this conference will be recorded. As a reminder, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. If any participant has difficulties hearing the conference, please press star key followed by zero on your telephone for operator assistance. May I now hand you over to Mr. Holland, who will lead you through this conference. Please go ahead, sir.
Right. Thank you very much. Welcome everybody. I'm here today in London with Georg and the team, and we have a large number of analysts around the table with us, joining us for our analyst day. Obviously, we're happy to answer your questions after the presentation. Starting with the Q3, we're very pleased with our results in the third quarter of 2017. The group generated a gross profit of EUR 619.4 million, representing an encouraging 7.7% on FX increase on an FX adjusted basis. We're also pleased with the operating EBITDA performance of EUR 216 million and an increase of 8.5% FX adjusted. Both the gross profit and operating EBITDA development were driven by organic growth and a positive contribution from our acquisitions. All regions contributed to this positive development, and I'll go through each region in detail later in the presentation.
In terms of earnings per share were EUR 0.65, which is an increase 8.3% over last year. Last but not least, in September, we successfully placed a corporate bond in the amount of EUR 600 million at extremely attractive funding conditions, and Georg will go through this a little later on. On that point, I'll pass across to Georg.
Good afternoon, everybody. Let me walk you through the income statement, through the upper part of the income statement first. Sales again increased strongly this quarter on an FX adjusted basis by about 14%, and that's pretty influenced by a continuing increase of chemical prices. I'm sure you have seen that the sales increase does impact our trade working capital, and we'll come back to it a little later in the presentation. When it comes to gross profit, we for sure continue the positive trend we have seen this year so far, and we show the gross profit growth of 7.7% on an FX adjusted basis. Operating EBITDA for the group grew somewhat stronger than our gross profit. Operating EBITDA amounted to EUR 216 million in the third quarter.
What we feel a piece of pretty good news is that all regions, all our four segments, contributed to the EBITDA growth of 8.5%. We did adjust the operating EBITDA for expenses related to the efficiency improvement program in Europe because we think it will allow, going forward, a better comparability of operating performance. The cost associated with that program we recorded so far amount to about EUR 5 million in the third quarter, and we have treated them as special items, and you can actually see them in the P&L on the next page. There is a line, mixed expenses from holding charges and special items. That's the second line on the table, and that's where we record and will record the still outstanding expenses for the European efficiency improvement program. The other lines of the P&L, no major changes.
Depreciation in the quarter amounted to EUR 28.1 million, amortization to EUR 11.2 million. Financial result, a net expense of EUR 21.8 million, and that's pretty much in line with the numbers we recorded for last year. Tax rate at 33%. It all leads to an earnings per share of EUR 0.65 and an encouraging increase of 8.3%. When it comes to cash flow, I won't speak too much about cash flow, but in the third quarter, we recorded an operating cash flow of EUR 124.3 million, and that compares to EUR 180 million a year ago. On the one hand, the cash flow benefits from the increase in profit after tax, that was mentioned already. On the other hand, also this quarter, cash flow was impacted by a comparatively high outflow for working capital due to rise in chemical prices.
It is a normal, to-be-expected consequence in chemical distribution in an environment of rising prices. All other lines with operating cash flow are mainly unchanged against the previous year. When it comes, on the next page, to investment and financing cash flow, in line with our expectations, CapEx for the third quarter had a payout that is slightly above last year's level. You do see a major change, a major element in the cash used for financing activities. You see in that line, mainly the inflow for the EUR 600 million corporate bond that we issued in September this year. We still had the cash on our balance sheet at end of September. It's not on the balance sheet anymore. In early October, we used the funds to redeem parts of our syndicated loan facility. On page nine, you see the information on net debt and leverage.
Net debt decreased and stood at EUR 1.6 billion at the end of the third quarter. Due to the already mentioned bond proceeds, the gross debt increased, not so the net debt. The net debt actually decreased. Group's leverage stands at 1.9 times net debt to EBITDA. The absolute amount of trade working capital was about stable throughout the quarter. We turned the working capital eight times in the quarter, which is about the level we achieved also in 2016. Steve mentioned it already. I would like to lay out the details of our latest transaction in the debt capital market. In September, we successfully placed a corporate bond with a volume of EUR 600 million. We took good advantage of the very attractive conditions in the debt market. We issued the bond with an eight-year maturity and a coupon of 1.18%.
With the transaction, we managed to further strengthen our financial profile. We lengthened the maturity profile considerably at what we feel to be very attractive interest rate. The bond is primarily intended as a refinancing, a kind of early refinancing for the one bond which we have on the balance sheet that matures summer next year. When it comes to the balance sheet, you do see the significant increase in cash and cash equivalents on the balance sheet. That's temporary, end of September only. I would also mention an additional line or two additional lines that we have on the balance sheet, which are small but new.
You do see that we now record for EUR 22 million assets held for sale. That comes from a reclassification of a smaller business by the name of Biosector that we consider non-core and that we intend to sell within the next 12 months. That leads to a requirement of reclassification on the balance sheet. That actually already concludes my part. I give it back to Steve for a discussion of C segment EBITDA.
Thank you, Georg. Before I provide more detail on those segments, I'll go through the bridge and the development of our operating EBITDA of the group Q3 versus Q2 2016 versus Q3 2017. As noted, of course, we had a headwind of US dollar-euro translation of around about EUR 7 million. Our acquisitions contributed EUR 7 million. We're very pleased with the performance of our acquisitions year to date. The EMEA region delivered an organic operating EBITDA growth of 2%. We are particularly pleased with the organic growth in North America, which stands at 8% for the third quarter. In our regions of Latin America and Asia Pacific, both showed good organic growth rates of 13% and 6% respectively. I would like to emphasize that we expect Latin America to remain volatile going forward.
I'll let you take through the detailed developments of the segments for the third quarter on the next page. In terms of EMEA in the third quarter, EMEA region operating in a positive macroeconomic environment. The segment reported gross profit growth of 4.2% and an operating EBITDA growth of 3.7%, as FX adjusted. These results are moderately higher than Q3 of last year and mostly driven by organic growth. Our efficiency program in EMEA, which was mentioned by Georg a few moments ago, is on plan and accelerating. Coming to North America. We're particularly pleased with the results in North America. Gross profit grew by 9.7%, and operating EBITDA increased by 12.3%. The gross profit growth is a good continuation of trends we've seen in the first half of 2017, and the conversion to operating EBITDA continues to improve.
The positive development is broad-based with stable and improving oil and gas industries and business performance, along with regional development initiatives and the successful integration of our labs business, including recent acquisitions. Coming to Latin America. As mentioned previously, the macroeconomic environment in Latin America remained somewhat volatile, although we have significantly increased our results in the region versus prior year. Our gross profit in Latin America grew by 5.2% on a constant FX basis. Operating EBITDA grew by even higher, by 17%, and this development was mainly driven by a pleasing performance in Brazil, which continues to recover. Coming on to Asia Pacific. Our region, Asia Pacific, showed a good earnings development. The gross profit grew by 15.7%, and operating EBITDA grew by 17.6%. These positive results are attributed to both organic growth and the contribution of our acquisitions in the region.
We're particularly pleased with the organic growth in Thailand, Vietnam, and China during the quarter, and we will continue to invest in management to fuel further organic growth. If I may come to the outlook. I'll start with the current trading. I'll slow down at this point because I know you like to write these down. These are the gross profit per day numbers. In July, gross profit per day increased by 8.6% as reported and 5.6% on an organic basis. In August, GP per day increased by 8.8% as reported and 5.7% on an organic basis. In September, GP per day increased by 11.8% as reported and 8.8% organically. In October, the growth was 8.6% as reported and 5.8% on an organic basis. A similar trend to the previous three months.
With respect to the outlook, we continue to expect to see our key performance indicators gross profits and operating EBITDA to grow on a full-year basis. Also, we confirm our expectations of an operating EBITDA for the 2017 year in the range of EUR 820 million-EUR 850 million. This guidance is based on the latest trends and midpoints of the guidance implies organic growth of about 5% in the second half of the year. The October numbers are fully in line with this expectation. The guidance range is to be understood pre-exceptional items and the cost of the EMEA efficiency program are not included and assumes no material change in U.S. dollar-euro translation compared to the last three months. In 2017, we've seen an increase in chemical prices, we expect the prices to remain on a higher level for the rest of the year.
Due to that, due to increased business volumes, we expect an increase in working capital year-over-year. With respect to CapEx, we still forecast to allocate some EUR 150 million in 2017. Now we're very happy to take your questions.
Okay. Thank you, Steve. Thank you, Georg. We are now starting with the Q&A session. We are taking questions from analysts here in the room in London first. We will then take questions from the line. First question comes from Rob Plant with J.P. Morgan.
Thanks, Tom Sykes. Steve, you mentioned at Q2 some detail about the Efficiency Programs and improvements in Europe. I think the two areas were investing in the specialist sales team and also rationalizing the property portfolio, the warehouses, et cetera. It sounds like that is on track. Can you give us some more detail, please?
Yeah. As you know, we have announced the Efficiency Program in Q2. We are pretty much on track now in terms of the movement of people. It is quite a change. It involves about 300 people essentially moving out of business and about 150 people coming into the business. This is basically refocusing the company's ability to develop our specialty chemicals portfolio. For that, we are on track. We fully expect the amount that we put aside for this process to effectively be allocated before the year-end. The recruitment processes are underway as I speak. This is really to focus our growth in specialties from an existing business, which is very successful, but we would like to grow it more, even faster than we are today, and particularly in Europe.
When it comes to the facilities, with the consolidation of our facilities being driven by what I would call destocking, if you like. We are basically not reproducing a me-too facilities going forward. We are essentially looking at where we spend our capital expenditure, our investment strategy and what have you. We are looking to essentially increase utilization on some sites and reduce the capability on other sites and reduce our total cost to serve. That is an ongoing exercise. Where we can accelerate that, we will be doing.
Our next question comes from Rory McKenzie with UBS.
Hi. Thanks. Three for me, please. Firstly, can you break out or talk about the volume growth trends against the gross profit per ton trends in the quarter?
Can you shoot the next question and I'll pick up, Steve?
The next one in the U.S., there's obviously been no real hurricane disruption, which clearly was a good job on your part. Have you actually managed to gain share through that process? Maybe the third question, can you talk about the current trend you're seeing in China? Obviously, take back builds a bit. I think there's been some regulation change there. Will that impact your business and the outlook in China, please?
Yeah. When it comes to the hurricane, there's obviously a lot of talk about the hurricane. It wasn't as though we didn't know it was coming. We did actually plan for these types of events in those areas that are affected by such adverse weather conditions. We were pretty much geared up already to try and mitigate the effects of the hurricane. What we did get is business interruption left or right of the event, if you like. I think we were certainly, like everybody, a little bit surprised about the flooding. I was saying to someone earlier on today that we have fences around, security fences around the sites, and some of our sites had fish in the security fencing, such was the height of the floods.
We did actually take the steps which we thought were necessary, and I should like to publicly thank all our guys in the Houston area in particular, who did an amazing job. There was an effect, but honestly, it's a little bit in the noise. There's some pluses and minuses, but not to the point where we would separate it out as being a hurricane effect. Just skipping on to the China, I'm not sure your point on China. Our Chinese business is, I noted, highlighted in my report that we're pleased with the organic growth in China. It's fair to say that the Chinese authorities are becoming ever keen on both safety and environmental aspects of the chemicals business generally.
To that effect, we are moving at least two of our sites into chemical parks with the assistance of the Chinese government, and they're helping us do that. There will be effectively brand new chemical distribution facilities for Brenntag by 2020, and that's with the assistance of the Chinese government.
Will there be any disruption as a result of that?
No. We expect to manage that process. Again, we know it's coming, and therefore, we will plan accordingly.
The first question was basically to get some information on the gross profit development split into volumes and gross profit per ton. For the quarter, for the group, we record and I think suggested gross profit increase of 7.7%. Out of that 7.7% gross profit increase, a little bit less than half is through volume increase, and the other part is gross profit per ton increase. You see the effect of pretty healthy gross profit per ton increase throughout the globe in all segments, strongest in North America.
Sorry, and was that in particular helped by the hurricane disruption, any shortages there, or?
I wouldn't attribute it to that in any isolated manner. We have gone through a pretty strong price management exercise in North America throughout the years, particularly in those regional operating companies who have been a little bit soft on the spend, so it's much broader than the hurricane. There's no denying that the hurricane created a little bit of perception of scarcity in the market, which helped our price management exercise.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Next question comes from Silvia Backer with Deutsche Bank.
Yes, hi, good afternoon, everyone. Two questions please. First of all, on the European conversion, obviously that's trending a little bit better. How do you expect that to develop over the next couple of quarters? Secondly, the business you mentioned you intend to sell, how material is that profit-wise? Is that split out as a different thing? Finally, on the balance sheet. Obviously again, running it kind of low since the IPO. The M&A spend has been what it's been over the last two years. You've got a new M&A team, I think you highlighted the last capital market day. Are you changing your approach there at all? Should we expect more of the same, or can we expect more dividend payments, et cetera? Thank you.
Well, the European conversion subject is a never-ending subject. Not just for you, but also for us. All the changes that we have underway at the moment are to drive efficiency. The European conversion ratio is something which the European management team are totally onto. We have seen a small improvement. Could it be more than that? Does it need to be more than? Yes, it does. We are pursuing everything we can to improve the conversion ratio in the European space. That will require further consolidation, further efficiency gains in transport logistics, further people consolidation and the way we operate as a European business. That's very much where I would expect it to continue to improve over the years ahead. What was the other question?
Yeah. The business that we reclassified, the small business that we reclassified as assets held for sale, that's a history of pretty volatile earnings. We have had years with EUR 2 million EBITDA. We have had years with EUR 6 million EBITDA. Part of why we consider it non-core is that the characteristics of the business is such a volatile one. This year it's more in the range of EUR 2 million earnings.
Sorry, what business is that?
Sorry? The Biosector business.
It's basically a business that's focused on selling to the pharmaceutical industry. Of preparing and selling [audio distortion] . The comment on freight costs. I think it is a reasonable comment actually, that freight costs are moving up in North America. Particularly in the area of chemical distribution and chemical transport generally. There is actually a perceived shortage in the chemicals space of train drivers and new drivers coming into the industry. I think it would be a fair comment to say that freight costs are moving up in North America. As far as the conversion ratio in North America is concerned, there's nothing in particular that I can point to which would suggest a one-off development. The other point was on Europe, I believe.
Yeah, on the EMEA conversion margin, just wondering what was holding that back in Q3?
On this, I don't think there's any one particular factor holding it back. I think the EMEA region is a complex region with lots of moving parts. I don't think there's one particular factor that's big enough to hold it back.
Next question from Milo Bohinc with Goldman.
Yes, thank you. The first one is also coming back on the improvement in the North American conversion margin, a very solid improvement. With these types of growth levels, would that be fair to extrapolate all the way back to, in the end, your peak margin that you've reached above the 40% in this business?
You're saying that to actually go back to-
Effectively, would it be fair to extrapolate this trend of the improvement that you've shown 120 basis points before there was this level of growth rate?
I would prefer to jump in. I would say a lot of things you said, and I'll repeat them, I cannot too. A little bit, you also mentioned the 40%, which is a number which is probably years out from here. First of all, I would completely agree that on the current level of gross profit growth, we will continue to see operating leverage as we have seen in Q3 and improve conversion ratio further over time in North America. There's no question about that from our perspective. To go back to the peak days that we had, 2014, 42%, 43%. Keep in mind that we lost a fair share of our oil and gas business since then. We basically lost a third of the oil and gas gross profit since then.
It's a business that's now on a much more positive trend, but the peak days, we are still way ahead of. To cut a long story short, is 40% in North America over time in reach? For sure. Is a number well ahead of 40% in reach? Would need a stronger rebound in oil and gas than we currently see.
Good. Got it. Very clear.
Yeah, I think we should also balance out that we have some lubes businesses in the North American portfolio now, which convert at the 32s and 33s. There's a bit of a mix change in the North American business.
Yes. Fair enough. One more question on the free cash flow. The working capital, you pointed out higher investments because of higher chemical prices. I also noticed with the risk of being too nitpicky on the details, that you dropped your line on working capital turn improvement. Is there anything to highlight there?
No. I think our view on working capital turns is that working capital turns are stable. Yes, depending on what exact timeframe you look at, the quarter, year-to-date, LTM, you might see a fluctuation of 0.1, 0.2 times turns. I'm not sure what exact comparison you are looking to. We feel that working capital turns are in good, in stable shape. Keep in mind, working capital is turning a little slower in Asia and in Latin America than in North America and Europe. To the degree you get some mix shift over time, some strong growth in Asia over time, you might see a little bit of pressure on turns, but it's not a topic I would overemphasize.
All right. Thank you.
The next question comes from Carl Raynsford with Credit Suisse.
Thank you very much, gentlemen. Three questions, the obligatory three. Firstly, just back on the U.S. oil and gas. I know you're not going to call it out specifically. I think you said that at the last quarter. You don't want to be drawn into specific numbers, but you're saying it's improving. Are we talking high single-digit, low double-digit improvements? Just an update on how that's improving, that'd be helpful. You also mentioned Scandinavia at the Q2 stage as being a problem area that was raised or flagged again, the Scandinavia demand situation.
Oh, yes.
What would European constant FX GP growth have looked like excluding Scandinavia? How much of a drag is Scandi on that business? The last question, just on the bond refinancing, just so I understand this correctly, you're basically just going to pay the coupon, you're not going to refinance the 2018 bond early. You're not going to pay any redemption charges. You'll just run with that bond concurrently. Is that correct?
Yeah. On the bond first, you are right. The 2018 bond does not have an early redemption option, so it will sit on the balance sheet until middle of next year, and the high coupon from that bond will fall away middle of next year. On oil and gas, basically throughout this year, basically all three quarters, the gross profit in oil and gas is growing 15%, give or take. It's stronger than the rest of the North American business, but not so outstanding that it moves and drives the North American performance. The other part of the North American business is also very strong.
I have to admit, the third question escaped my
The Scandinavia contribution impact on gross profit.
Can you? You are thinking on the quarter or year to date?
Either. Just in sense of how much of a drag it is on the region.
If you permit the rough number, it's roughly 2% of the European EBITDA.
Sorry, it's a 2% drag or it accounts for 2% of European EBITDA.
2% drag on the European EBITDA.
Drag.
It's a rough number. I would have to go to Robin for the details.
Any more questions here in the room? Yes. Next question comes from Daniel Buchta with MainFirst.
Yes, two questions, if I may. The first one, congratulations on the good results. Compared to the softer trends in the first half, in your view, what has changed so that the trends that you're reporting are so much different. If I see the broad macro picture, nothing has changed dramatically now in Q3. It was already very favorable, in my view, in the first half. In your view, what are the main drivers that you are now showing and reporting accelerated trends, and especially on that regard, I think especially the organic profit growth number you have mentioned in September was very strong, especially given it was the month with Hurricane Harvey having an impact. The second one, coming back to M&A.
You mentioned there is nothing different, but in your view, do you see it as more difficult in the current environment to buy businesses because of the improved macro environment so that the owners are not willing to sell at reasonable prices, as I would say? Thank you very much.
Okay. Well, I think as far as the current performance and the trends, I think if you look at the first half, the first half of this year was quite difficult insofar as, so you saw low conversion ratios in the first quarter in North America, better performance in the second quarter, and almost reverse performance in the European business in terms of decent first quarter, weaker second quarter. There is no fundamental reason that we can see that are going to change the businesses in a very meaningful way. I think we've been working pretty hard at growing our gross margin and capturing organic growth on a constant basis. I think we're just seeing the fruits of that hard work coming through now. The thing about Brenntag is a very defensive business.
You look at this business, it can go through some pretty bumpy roads, but it does take some time to move it. Equally, the defensive nature of the business also sometimes creates a bit of a momentum change for things to start really growing. I think what we see now is that start shifting gear, which we hopefully will maintain. When it comes to M&A, there's never a good time to buy a company, or decent companies are never for sale. Equally, in a downturn, people are not selling business because they're cash generative and they've got lots of cash and they don't want to sell it low if it does. And when it's in an upside scale, they're looking for a higher price. It's always going to be a negotiation.
I don't see that there's any change in our ability to, or our wish to buy businesses at good prices. Obviously, clearly prices at which are value accretive to our business.
Just a quick follow-up on the September numbers.
The most per working day is, I would suggest not to overdo on the data point of one month only. You always have to look at the data seriously. Why was September so strong a number? First of all, September was a relatively short month in terms of number of working days, and that always benefits the per working day number a little bit. Secondly, yes, North America had strong growth rates in September, but they were also pretty weak in August, which is not surprising given that the hurricane came end of August. We certainly had a negative impact in August, but some catch-up in September. Don't read too much into the September number.
Okay, great. Thank you.
One more question from Silvia Backer with Deutsche Bank.
Thank you. Just to follow up, the oil and gas business is growing at about 15%. What is the conversion ratio on that business at the moment?
If you permit, I would decline the answer. What I mean is, don't forget we are running an integrated business, and part of the oil and gas business, not all of it, but part of the oil and gas business is using the same infrastructure than the rest of the business. I have to play with allocation keys, and I can show whatever result desired at the end of the day. It's mid-30s, but it's more an estimated number than a calculated number.
Okay. Thank you.
Another question from Rory McKenzie with UBS.
Yes. I don't want to delve too much into the North American margin again. You mentioned that the contribution of acquisitions was stronger than expected in the U.S. Was that on gross profit? Was that on the conversion margin? How did acquisitions do better, and where in particular were they better? Was that enough to move the dial on the overall margin or not?
How do I pick you up? First of all, in the 3rd quarter in North America, the acquisition effects are not that super material anymore. They basically come from the two smaller lubes acquisitions that we have undertaken late Q3 or early Q4 last year. Directionally, the gross profit development of these acquisitions is fully in plan. The cost synergy realization is much ahead of plan.
That's perfect. Thank you.
Next question from Jeff Schneller with Jefferies.
Good morning. From the M&A front in Asia, who are you competing with on deals? As it relates to regulation, moving facilities, environmental issues, are you buying customers? Are you buying facilities? Where are we on the integration phase in terms of do they need more capital than maybe your tuck-ins that you buy in North America or Europe? On the digitalization front, could you update us a little bit on what's going on there and maybe some detail on how we can start to see those results flowing through?
I'll start, Richard. Exclusive deals are not in terms of Asia Pacific. In terms of the digital space, we have our GGB business, which is actually based in Holland. That essentially, we started our digital network business in Germany, in Berlin, about a year ago now. We now operate in Amsterdam. We have a digital warehouse now in Amsterdam, and that is now being worked up into a fully operating model. What we're doing with the digital sense is we're actually starting to operate a Brenntag internal marketplace.
Our ambitions are very simply this, that we are effectively going to use our digital space, our digital marketplace within Brenntag, which is a big market within itself, to allow us to trip over our shoe laces and fall flat on our face with our digital business before we unleash it on customers and subject them to equal unnecessary behavior. We are very, very pleased with the way we're going on our digital business and our digital journey, and that is accelerating. Was there anything else you wanted to ask?
We currently do not have any more questions here in the room, therefore, I would like to hand over to the operator to give a short introduction to the people on the phone, and then we take questions from the line.
Yes, sure. If you have a question for our speakers, please dial star one on your telephone keypad now to enter the queue. Once your name has been announced, you can ask a question. One moment please, for the first question. The first question is from Raj Sharma of STT. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Just on the organic growth, could you give us some color on the difference in the specialty chemical side of the business versus the bulk chemical side? Are you seeing different relative growth rates between the two, or what are the margin implications of that, please?
Hi, it's Georg. Thanks for the question. I hope I got the question. A little bit technical difficulties on the line. I think it was a question for recent differences in organic growth rates of specialties and industrial chemicals. We do primarily segment and focus the business in regional segments. The split you are mentioning plays some role, but it's not the key difference for us in managing the business. Over a very long time period, we would see some stronger growth in specialty gross profit than in industrial gross profit, maybe one to two percentage points stronger growth in specialty chemicals. I cannot say over the recent period, over the recent quarter, I cannot say that we deviated from that.
Understood. Thank you very much.
As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one. The next question is from Jochen Moessner of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hello, good afternoon. Actually, I have two questions. First one, or both, are on Scandinavia. Can you give us a bit more or a bit of color on what are the particular challenges you see in terms of weak demand? Is it a particular vertical that faces the weak demand, and to what extent is the disposal of Brenntag Biosector associated with that? Thank you.
Sorry, are you asking for a specific region? Maybe we missed that.
Yeah. It's about Scandinavia, whether it's a particular industry that faces weak demand or it's an overall problem of Scandinavia. Yes.
No, if I can answer that. Bear in mind that the Scandinavian business, our Nordic region, it's a relatively small region within the European business. Within that, the Biosector, probably in the past could have contributed up to 25% of the EBITDA. That business isn't contributing significantly at the moment. That has a disproportionate effect on Scandinavia. I wouldn't say that the Scandinavian region itself is in poor shape. We definitely don't feel that Biosector is a business we want to be in longer term, and it has had a short-term effect on our business in Scandinavia.
Okay, thank you.
The next question is from Ruedi Loescher of ABN Amro. Go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon. I hope you can hear me. I heard a very bad echo on the line. I have three questions. The first is on the guidance. The midpoint of your full year guidance implies a Q4 EBITDA of EUR 198 million, which would be flat year-on-year and a deceleration compared to Q3. Can you tell us what the reason is for that conservative guidance, so to say? The second question is on North America. Can you talk about your current employee turnover, and how that compares to the historical average? I mean mainly your commercial employees. Thirdly is on Latin America. It's a good thing to see that the conversion margin is up again. Can you tell us what you see as the potential for this region, in particular because the historicals apply less given that you've exited Venezuela.
Just wondering what the potential of this region is. Thank you.
I would do it, Georg, maybe on the guidance question. We must not forget that we will face a pretty significant translation headwind in Q4. Last year's Q4 dollar euro was, if I remember correctly, about 108, roughly 108. We are currently 116, 117. We will have currency translation headwind in Q4. Reaching the midpoint of the guidance range actually does imply an organic EBITDA growth in Q4 of about 5%, give or take a little. Reaching the midpoint of the guidance range implies the continuation of the growth trend we have seen in Q3, roughly.
I think I wasn't quite sure I understood. Were you talking about commercial actual turnover staff in North America? Was that your question?
Exactly. You were saying the turnover in sales force in North America.
Well, yeah, I think we have an average turnover in North America of around about 6%. I'm certainly not aware of any particular segment of our workforce which is turning over faster than that, and certainly including our sales force. It's a relatively stable sales force community in North America.
Okay. Thank you.
When it comes to Latin America, I think the potential Latin America is and has been quite a volatile region in terms of the profitability, and you're quite right to point out Venezuela is no longer part of our Latin American business, and in the past was a very significant part of the business. I think it would be fair to say that when we look at Latin America for the future, we do see growth from where we are today. We see an improving picture both in Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina. But the size of that region will to some extent depend a little bit on acquisitions in the future. At the moment, whilst we do have some interest acquisitions, our primary focus is really in Asia and North America for acquisitions.
Right. I think maybe to ask Steve. Historically, I think you did more than 40%, at 45% in 2011. Also that's Asia Pacific. You did mid-30s in Latin America. Is that still possible with the current business that you have in terms of conversion margin, that is?
I hope we got the question right. If the question was, "Is mid-30s conversion ratio in Latin America still achievable?" Yes, it is.
Okay. Thank you.
The next question is from Tom Sykes of Deutsche Bank. Go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you. Sorry, just to hark back again to the North American conversion rate. Just to be clear, are you getting volume leverage and volume-based improvement to your conversion ratio in the U.S., or is the conversion ratio largely going up by the fact that your gross profit per ton is increasing? Given that you put in some cost about this time last year into the North American oil and gas business again, do you think you start annualizing that and get a better volume-based conversion benefit in North America going forward? Just on the oil and gas business, it's obviously integrated in part to the rest of the business. Would you say the incremental conversion, although it may be at a lower absolute level, the incremental conversion from improved oil and gas, is that higher than the average?
Would you expect that to add to the conversion ratio of North America overall, please?
Tom, hi, it's Georg. I would caution people a little to look at conversion ratio on a quarterly basis. It can be a volatile and a little misleading number. Obviously, the efficiency of the organization, the conversion ratio benefits from leverage of gross profit over the cost base. That can actually be both. It can be leverage that comes from price management, so gross profit per ton, if you say so. It can be volume leverage. We would expect to see both in North America. We had a gross profit increase that was stronger than volume increase, but we also had volume increase. We actually do see both parts of the leverage. Oil and gas. Yes, for sure.
We kept part of the organization, a fair part of the organization to be able to service orders in the oil and gas space if and when they come back. That's now what we are seeing. Incremental conversion in oil and gas is for sure bigger than the average conversion of the oil and gas business.
Okay. Just on the gross profit per ton, do you think, given that there may have been some hurricane effect, is it quite sticky where you've put the new prices? Are there any more gross profit per ton benefits that you think may come through from the programs you're putting through, please?
Hi, it's Steve here.
Thanks.
In terms of the performance of our gross profit per ton, we clearly are seeking to maximize those numbers on a continuous basis. We don't foresee any reasons at this stage why there should be any significant shift in our gross profit per ton. It is across a very large number of tons, if you like, so it doesn't move that much in real terms. I think fundamentally the business is sticky. That's the right term to use.
Yeah.
We don't see any major changes.
Okay. Thank you very much.
As a final reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press zero one. There are no further questions over the phone.
Okay. In that case, well, thank you very much, Steve, for everybody that joined us on the phone, and thank you everybody that's joined us here in London, and we'll close the call there. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attendance. This call has been concluded. You may disconnect now.