Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Also from my side, a very warm Welcome to Branicks 2023 nine months results conference call. Today, as usual, I'm joined by my colleagues from accounting and investor relations. We will give you a short presentation of our results and highlights for the first nine months, followed by a Q&A session. Dear all, also in the third quarter, we were still facing a challenging market environment. Especially, the transaction activity remained affected by the low macroeconomic outlook and the interest rate environment in Germany. Apart from the individual transactions, there was still little movement in the third quarter. Expectations for a full recovery of the transaction market are now focusing on 2024. Despite this difficult environment, we made further progress on our path in the third quarter and performed well operationally.
I will give more detail on the development of the individual key figures in a moment. First, I would like to give you an update on the action plan we presented to you in a half-year conference call in August. We are working intensively on the specification and implementation of all elements of our Performance 2024 action plan, and we are making progress step by step. We look back on a successful financing track record, and we're able to demonstrate this once again by repaying the EUR 150 million bond 18/23 as planned. In the light of the challenges involved in further reducing our leverage, we are working on all available options to improve our financial structure and strengthen our liquidity position. As already mentioned, the transaction market continues to be characterized by uncertainty.
Nevertheless, we have been able to realize disposals here to date, which have led to a positive LTV effect in the third quarter. We are also in advanced talks for further disposals. At the end of September, the LTV ratio stood at 56.9% as a result of the sales that were already completed. This is a slight improvement on the previous quarter, with a value of 57.6%. Our operations were driven by the positive letting performance. We are seeing unchanged and continued strong demand for logistics space, as well as robust office lettings. We have let 17% more space than in the previous year. We are also seeing positive developments from rent indexation, resulting in a like-for-like rental growth of 6.8%.
With regard to the upcoming year-end valuation, we can confirm our expectations of -4% to -7% after receiving the first valuation indications from external appraisers. In the institutional business, we achieved a partial equity placement of EUR 10 million for the so-called Offenbach Unite property in the reporting period. Our focus remains also currently on the active portfolio management of the almost EUR 10 billion in assets under management in the institutional business. An important milestone of our Performance 2024 action plan is the reduction of our operational expenses from next year onwards. In total, we expect to reduce our OpEx by 5%-10% versus this year. Ladies and gentlemen, as usual, I would like to give you a snapshot of our financial profile at the balance sheet date.
As announced in our last conference call, we have repaid roughly EUR 200 million of the so-called bridge loan in July. The repayment of the remainder of the bridge loan is on top of our agenda, as this is the most expensive financing in place. This is also reflected in the average interest rate of 3% overall and 4.8% for 2024 only. But also, for most of the other maturities in 2024, we are in negotiations with banks and investors regarding a mixture of repayment and refinancing via new debt instruments. Overall, we target to reduce our leverage through disposals in the midterm. The covenants of our green bond, maturing in 2026, have sufficient headroom.
While we see some pressure on the increased interest costs and lower fee income on our Bond ICR, with a coverage of 2.3, we are still comfortably above the threshold of 1.8. According to our business plan, we expect a stabilization and turning point for this metric in 2024. The Bond LTV will also benefit from the equity release of our disposals, thereby mitigating the expected negative effect from the portfolio devaluation. Let's now take a brief look at the results of our real estate platform in the first nine months. As already mentioned, our letting performance remains strong, and our teams once again performed exceptionally well. The letting performance of the Branicks platform in the first nine months rose by 17% year-on-year to 346,100 square meters.
In total, assets under management with EUR 13.9 billion were slightly down by 4%, mostly due to disposals, which became effective in the course of the year. Our commercial portfolio saw a decrease from EUR 4.5 billion down to EUR 4 billion, which was a direct result of the disposal activities year-on-year. Institutional business was also affected by the end of larger property management mandate. Like for like, the rental income rose by 6.8% for the entire portfolio, both in the commercial portfolio with a plus of 3.5% and in the institutional business with a plus of 8.3%. Rent increases were realized primarily through indexations. As of today, only 1.2% of the total annualized rental income would expire in 2023 if lease contracts are not prolonged.
Roughly 70% of annualized rental income has a lease length until 2027 and longer. For larger expiries in 2024 and 2025, we already proactively started discussions with our tenants. On our next slide, let me highlight the development of our main income streams. As expected, on the one hand, there was a strong increase in net rental income due to the takeover of VIB and the like-for-like growth of our rental contracts. On the other hand, we saw a sharp decline in the real estate management fees due to the still muted transaction market. Therefore, our recurring income on the platform was slightly higher year on year, and the share of recurring income in relation to the total income rose to almost 100% in the first nine months.
From the total of EUR 33.3 million of real estate management fees, EUR 4.2 million were generated from transactions. In addition, we generated income from associate companies of EUR 4.5 million, which is below the previous year result of EUR 80 million. This is mainly due to the sale of a joint venture investment for EUR 10.1 million in the prior year period. Let's take a closer look on the development of the FFO year-on-year now. The rental income saw a strong increase of EUR 17 million. As previously mentioned, this was due to like-for-like rental growth of our commercial portfolio and the VIB consolidation.
Also, the recurring management fees saw an increase of EUR 6.2 million, but couldn't compensate for the decline in transaction-related fees, which led to a negative effect of EUR 29.8 million. The net interest result was down by EUR 27.2 million. Thereof, EUR 15.3 million as due to the VIB consolidation and the refinancing activities, and EUR 11.9 million was due to the unhedged interest costs for the VIB bridge. Our OpEx, excluding the VIB transaction costs of the prior year, were slightly improved by EUR 0.4 million. This was despite the fact that in the third quarter, we had one-off admin expenses for IT security checks and moving our headquarters in Frankfurt into new premises. All in all, this resulted in FFO of EUR 33.1 million for the first nine months of this year.
Ladies and gentlemen, as usual, I'm concluding my presentation with a final remark on our guidance for the fiscal current year. We confirm the recently updated guidance numbers as of today. Our focus during the next weeks until year-end is on achieving further disposals in the light of our repayment and deleveraging targets. Before I'm ending my presentation now, I would like to say thank you to Peer, who has been our Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications for a long time and will leave the company end of the month to take on new challenges. And also, Max will leave end of the year. So I would like to take the opportunity to say thank you to both for their long-term engagement at Branicks. I wish you all the best for your next steps.
I'm also happy to announce that with Jasmin Dentz, we have found someone with proven IR expertise to take over the investor relations responsibilities at Branicks. Jasmin has a very long experience in this business, and a very warm welcome to her. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for taking the time to join our conference call today. We are now happy to answer your questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press nine and the star key on your telephone keypad. If you would like to cancel your question, please press nine and the star key again. I repeat, please press nine and the star key on the telephone keypad if you want to ask a question, and please press nine and star again, if you want to cancel your question. The first question is from Stefan Scharff.
Yeah. Good morning, Sonja. Good morning, gentlemen. The question is about slide three of your presentation. You mentioned the LTV covenants, and that would be challenged by expected portfolio devaluation, but stabilized by transferred disposals. Perhaps you can say a bit more here.
Good morning, Stefan. Thank you for the question. So, yeah, as said, we expect that we will do some disposals until the end of the year. So therefore, the LTV will go down, so to say. And, yeah, that's all I can say at the moment. So, we are in, in latest discussions on this disposals, so we expect them to come end of the month, beginning of December, and this will be reflected in the LTV then.
Okay. Okay. Perhaps you can also give us an update on the trading activities. You did some trading, but it was not too much until now, I would say. So, it has to do with the challenging market environment. But what might we expect to come in the last six weeks of this year? And what might perhaps come at the earliest in the first quarter next year?
Yeah. So, we do not change our guidance, so we expect to come the trading activities, as you said, as guided. We, As I said, we are in close discussions. We have some LOIs on hand, and if there is nothing especially happening, they will come until the end of the year. Whether the liquidity comes or not, it's always the question, yeah, depends on the communities and so on. But the signing, I have no doubt that they will come as our guidance.
Stefan, you know, developments during the year and since years, yeah, it's always the last quarter where we did the most of the transactions, and I think it's also this year that also we as the potential buyers will close or want to close before the end of, end of year 2023.
Okay. Okay. And what is your general impression about the office market? You had some good letting success and you could increase your letting performance like for like. What is your impression about the demand in the business hubs in Germany? And what is your impression about the square meter rents, and where could they develop next year?
Yeah, that's a very good question. So starting with, the letting side, as said, we, we are in a very good shape on the operational basis, especially meaning letting. So we have a lot of indexations, and we are not challenged from the tenants, that they will not pay the indexation. Now the inflation goes down, so I don't expect that, indexation for next year, but we expect indexations. We, we plan with 2%-4% for next year. And also, if, the tenants go out and we find new tenants, they pay or are willing to pay the index rents, so the rents are not going down. We also see a lot of,
Demand.
Demand on lettings, especially in the areas like here in Frankfurt, in 1 A area, so to say, but also on the other hand, in suburb areas. So we do not see the letting questions going down, so to say. The transaction markets are very special, especially in the office market. So we have office buildings in trading, so to say, and we expect-
Some of them to come until the end, as I said some minutes ago. But these are special cases, so to say. It's not a common market where you bring some assets on the market and you have some bidders, and then you have a transaction market and comparables. It's very special and it's very deep negotiation, and especially only for experts, I would like to say, to know the market and to know who-
... who is a special buyer, so to say, at the end of the day. I cannot say more now, but we will talk about this when we have done the signings, and then you will see what I mean, yeah.
But it's not a market, so to say
I think that will come back because what we hear now from other, other market participants, so to say, is that they also hear that there is more traction, especially from foreign investors from outside Germany. But I don't think this year. It will come, yeah, second quarter, second half year, next year.
Okay. Okay, I see. So also from our side, all the best for Peer and Max for the future. Bye-bye.
Thank you. Bye.
So the next question comes from Andre Remke. The floor is yours.
Yeah, good morning, Sonja and Max and Peer. Thanks for the presentation. A couple of questions on my side. And you, Sonja, you mentioned possible options to reduce debt even further. Does it boil down only to the point of disposals, or could you be so kind to elaborate a bit about other options you have in mind?
Morning, Andre. No, as I said in the presentation, we are working on different streams, and we are working on them. We are not only elaborating them. So at the end of the day, it's disposals because it's for the goal to reduce the leverage and to bring the liquidity in. But on the other hand, we are also working on plans to refinance and to bring liquidity in in other ways and all possible ways we can imagine, so that we are secured on the liquidity side, so to say, yeah.
We are in deep discussions here, and we are working on all these streams, but at the moment, I cannot say what option we take at the end of the day, but it's all about develop options and to be prepared that we can, yeah, that we have secured an option that we can finalize then.
Hmm, okay. Second question is concerning your mentioned advanced talks on further disposals. Could you indicate a potential volume here? Are you within the range of EUR 300-450 million, as given in your outlook? And would disposals come at similar discounts to book value as you are expecting for the year-end valuation, i.e., the 4%-7%?
So as said, we stay with our guidance, so this is the range we expect for the end of the year. Until now, we have for the commercial portfolio, EUR 120 million done around about. So at the end of the day, we expect EUR 250 million to up to EUR 500 million in total by end of the year. And as also said, we expect the signing, whether the liquidity comes on the end of the year, we have this not in our hands, so to say. And that's the guidance, and that's all our target is also our target. And as also said, it will be a mix of office and logistics assets. We see more interest on logistics side.
It's a broader basis of investors who want to invest in logistics. We have also said in our last call, there is a spread of discounts. On the one hand, we have sold an asset nearly at market value. On the other hand, we have sold an asset with a higher discount because it was more or less a developing asset, an asset with a lot of CapEx. And this is also the case here for the assets we have in place, and we want to sell until end of the year. These are very special cases, and yeah, we are still in discussions, so I cannot talk a lot about prices and discounts. But at the end of the day, it's a mix of both of it, yeah.
And those deals with your LOIs on, sorry , I lost the question. But I have another one. On your valuation outlook of 4%-7%, is this on the commercial portfolio only, or also for the EUR 10 billion in other in the institutional business?
No, the outlook is for both of our segments, so it's nearly the same, so to say. For the institutional business, we have the accounting of the fair value, so we have evaluations during the year, depending when the asset was sold, was bought, so to say. So, overall, we have there until now decrease of around about 4% during the year, and we don't think that this will change with the upcoming evaluations, and therefore, also we expect for the commercial portfolio something around about 4%-7%. So we have the first, we have got the first impressions, but this are some assets, and we are still in the evaluation phase, so we stay with our comments we made on this mid of the year.
Yeah. Thank you. And, coming back to your disposals and the liquidity, which may only kick in in beginning of next year, what does it mean for your bond LTV, because this is based on the year-end effective balance sheet. Would you still have enough headroom here, having in mind the 4%-7% devaluation?
... Definitely. So that's, we are focusing very closely on our plans and our forecast and also the covenants we have. And, be sure that we have this in mind and that we plan this very closely. And, so as said in the presentation, we have no doubt at the moment that we get this covenants done, and we have enough headroom. Also, if one or the other closing of the trading transaction will not come this year. But as now, we see the signing coming and also the closing for this year, for end of the year.
Excellent. Thank you, Sonja, for the answers. And, Max and Peer, thank you from my side also, for your support over the last couple of years. Good luck.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Michael Schmidt. The floor is yours.
Yeah, thanks for taking the questions. I have a couple. First one on the, on your secured LTV. I think this increased quarter-on-quarter. Maybe you can explain the reason here. And, in the last call, I think you said that left unencumbered assets are very small for Branicks. But you have secured LTV of only 29% and the LTV of, I think, 54%. So, how can it be, that's my question, that there are no unencumbered assets left? I mean, it's still something I'm a bit puzzled on. I think you need to take out the NAV of the institutional business from the denominator, but even then, there is a huge gap for me, though.
That's the first question, then I have two additional.
Thanks, Michael. Peer here speaking. Yeah, thanks for the question. As already mentioned, this is due to the methodology on how you calculate the LTVs under the bond documentation. So maybe we can go through it after the call and where the differences are, especially on the secured LTV-
Yeah.
and how it's calculated, yeah.
Yeah. Thank you. I mean, it looks, yeah.
Yeah, mainly-
Yeah, it looks a little bit that, that there's a huge overcollateralization, which I don't understand. But later on, maybe more on this. The second question is on your ICR, which is more important than the LTV because it's maintenance based. When you internally model the next quarters, how close do you get to the minimum level of 1.8x? Because you said you expected stabilization in 2024, maybe on the back of a better transaction market then, which gives you then a tailwind. But when I annualize the Q3 EBITDA, then I get to the 8.1... 1.8 minimum level, quite close. So how comfortable are you that you will not breach that ICR covenant?
Yeah, thanks. Also, as Sonja mentioned, we have a close look on this and how it develops, especially in Q4, as we know, this is calculated on the basis of the last four quarters. But I can assure that we will stay above the 1.8 threshold here. Even it's, it will go down again in Q4, comparable to what we see now in Q3. Yeah, it will stay above the 1.8 threshold. Yeah.
Okay. And, in fact, the fact also that, the debt, due within the next, let's say, 12-18 months, will probably, be refinanced at a higher interest rate. This, this is... I mean, you do that sensitivity analysis when you calculate the ICR, do you?
For sure. So as said-
Okay.
We are working with different streams, so to say, to prepare options. And at the end of the day, ICR and the covenants for the bond have the highest priority. So we have this in a very close shape, so to say.
Yeah.
And, and-
Okay.
The key trigger here for the ICR covenant is definitely the payback of the bridge loan here.
Right.
Because the high cost of debt associated to that bridge loan, and if we're going to pay that down through the disposals and the liquidity we generate here, then you will see definitely a turning point in the ICR.
Okay. Okay. And, yeah, maybe to address this point regarding refinancing, and maybe opening the box of Pandora. Is the institutional business an option for you to sell to manage debt maturities, or is that absolutely not on the table?
That's not on the table at the moment.
Okay. Yeah. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
The next question is from Manuel Martin, the floor is yours.
Yes, thank you. Hello, Sonja. Two questions from my side. One follow-up question on the outlook for 2023, the FFO outlook. So it's still EUR 50 million-EUR 55 million. Just to understand it, do I understand it correctly, that you're expecting Q4 an acceleration in the in fees from real estate management to reach the guidance? Or how can I understand that?
Yes, that's right. Because, as you see in our guidance, we have also guidance for our management fees, and, we have not changed this. So we expect, most of the fees coming until the end of the year. This occurs so that we, that we finalize some things here and, and we'll, be able to account for it, and, therefore, we, we have no doubt that we will reach this, as well as the FFO guidance.
Mm-hmm. Okay. Okay. Does this have to do with the? I think there was some placement of fund participations and parked at VIB asset. I can't remember very well. Maybe you can give me some color on that. Is that including that topic?
This is mainly driven by development fees and transaction fees. So at the end of the day, it's also a mix and as said, we are in disposals also in the institutional business. We are working on two disposals here, finalizing at the end of the month, I think. And on the other hand, we have some developing fees and management fees also coming until the end of the year.
Okay. Okay, thanks. Last question from my side, maybe a bit out of the box. We learned that WeWork signing for insolvency. Any implications for your portfolio or a general opinion on this co-working topic?
Hi, Manuel. Yeah, thanks for the question and really expected that one, to be honest. Yesterday. But I can 100% assure you that WeWork is not a tenant in our commercial portfolio and also not in the institutional business segment.
Okay. All right. Thanks then, yeah, well, Peer and Max, all the best from my side. Thanks.
Thank you, Manuel.
The next question comes from Aidan Bolton. The floor is yours.
Hello?
Hi. Yes. Yeah, can you hear me?
Sorry, yeah, I broke up there. Hi, thanks very much for the color. I had two questions. The line's a bit static here. Sorry. In terms of your commentary and your guidance with regards to transactional fees, it looks like you're gonna have a big tick up in Q4. That's great. I just want to get a better sense of how that comes down to your EBITDA then.
Um, so-
Can you maybe give us a split of what you expect your EBITDA to be from an institution versus a commercial portfolio?
Well, I mean, if you look at the existing guidance and what we've achieved by Q3, especially in the institutional business segment, you can see that the recurring income here is around EUR 11 million per quarter. So in addition, additional EUR 11 million you can expect in the Q4 just from the recurring business and doing the asset and property management for our third-party clients. So this adds up to around EUR 44 million ish.
Okay.
if you look on the guidance number, which is around EUR 50 million-EUR 55 million in total for the asset management fees, you can see the remainder has to come then from transaction-related fees. Yeah.
Okay. Okay. And then how should I think about going forward? You're essentially seeing a bounce in H1 next year in transaction and kind of in the investment market. So the institutional business is clearly gonna be lifted while you're selling from your commercial portfolio. And specifically, maybe around your recent EPRA indexation. Obviously, I'm very aware that you need to have in excess of 85% of your EBITDA coming from your commercial portfolio, which you're now selling, and your institutional business is now growing quite rapidly. So does that put you at risk there?
Yeah, thanks for the question. And we're also closely looking at that, and we're happy to be in the EPRA index, and also our goal is to stay in that index. If I remember correctly, the EBITDA threshold here is 75%, not 85%, to stay in the index. So, even that we're seeing commercial portfolio coming down from disposals, also then the recovery in the institutional business, we expect when the transaction market will pick up again. We still see that from the numbers and the first plannings we have for 2024, that we will also stay in the index next year. And yeah, that's what we see so far, can see so far, yeah.
Very helpful. And just to confirm, the EBITDA you're accounting for VIB is on a fully consolidated basis, i.e., if you were to sell some of your stake in VIB or reduce your stake, you might lose that-
Yes.
- ability to fully consolidate.
Yes. Yes. Yes.
Thanks very much. Very helpful.
Thank you.
At the moment, then, no further question. If you want to ask a question, please press nine and the star key on the telephone keypad. There is one question from Philipp Heinrich. The floor is yours.
Yeah. Hi, thanks for the call. I was wondering how you can benefit from the asset disposals on the VIB level that you're talking about, given that it's easier to sell logistics properties in this market. How can you upstream that liquidity to use it for debt repayments?
... Yeah, thanks for the question. I mean, this has been also a topic in the past, and we thought about it. You may have read in the news that VIB has granted a loan to DIC to also use that fund to pay down EUR 200 million of the bridge loan. So in the case we are seeing also selling off logistics assets on the VIB level is something we might think about it again. But to be honest, quite frankly, here, I mean, if we see that in the next months happening, the disposals and the liquidity on as well on Branicks level and VIB level, we have to decide then how we can use it then for paying down debt. Yeah.
Would you consider another loan from VIB up to the whole call?
Please understand that we are checking, of course, all options like in the past, and also the future, but I can't comment on this if this is really something we are going to do. Yeah. The decision lies definitely on VIB management level and not up on Branicks level, yeah.
Okay.
The next question comes from Philipp Kaiser, the floor is yours.
Yeah, thanks a lot. Just one question left from my side. It's more like a clarification. So, I already calculated, like EUR 45 million, EUR 44 million should come or could, should come from the recurring management fee for the full year. So the EUR 6 million-EUR 11 million fee left, regards to your guidance, will come from transaction performance fee, which are linked to those two potential sales of assets in the institutional business. Have I got that right?
Hello. Yes, you have got this right.
Okay, perfect. Then, Peer and Max, thanks a lot for your service, and hope you stay same contact. All the best from my side.
Thank you very much.
Thank you for your question. There are no further questions, so I hand over back to Sonja Wärntges.
Hi, it's Peer speaking again. Also a big thank you from my side and Max. Thanks to the community and, yeah, looking forward to your questions. We are available all the day and, yeah, thank you again, and, bye-bye.
Bye. Thank you.