Siemens Energy AG (ETR:ENR)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2024

May 8, 2024

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. While we are waiting to begin, may I remind you that the recording of today's conference will be available shortly after the conclusion of the call. The conference call is also being webcast live on the Investor Relations section of the Siemens Energy website. The website address is www.siemens-energy.com/investorrelations. A recording of the webcast will be available shortly after the close of the call. After the presentation, you will have the possibility to ask questions by pressing star 1. For operator assistance, please press star 0. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Siemens Energy's Q2 fiscal year 2024 analyst call. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to the Safe Harbor statement on page 2 of the Siemens Energy presentation. This conference call may include forward-looking statements.

These statements are based on the company's current expectations and certain assumptions and are therefore subject to certain risk and uncertainties. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to your host today, Mr. Michael Hagmann, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Michael Hagmann
Head of Investor Relations, Siemens Energy

Thank you, Nirav. Good morning and a warm welcome to our conference call this morning. As always, our documents were released at 7:00 A.M. on our website. I'm very pleased to have our President and CEO, Christian Bruch, and our CFO, Maria Ferraro, with me. Christian and Maria, as always, will take you through the major developments of the last quarter. Hopefully, this will take roughly around 30 minutes. And thereafter, as always, Christian and Maria are available to answer your questions. For the entire conference call, we have allowed a little bit more than an hour. With that, I already hand over to Christian.

Christian Bruch
CEO, Siemens Energy

Yeah, thank you very much, Michael. Good morning, everybody, also from my side. Thank you very much, like always, for joining us for this conference call today. Let me start with the market. We continue to see strong electricity demand. In fact, I have to say the market has exceeded our expectations. The good year start what we had into our fiscal year continued also during the second quarter. For the majority of our businesses, these are benefiting really from the energy transition. Gas Services, Grid Technologies, and Transformation of Industries have turned now into successful businesses and are all positioned to deliver profitable growth. At Siemens Gamesa, we are working as before through the resolution of the quality matters and the offshore ramp-up. We have also used the last couple of months to detail out our way forward.

I will provide you with an overview on this a little later. Across Siemens Energy Group, we did a bit better this quarter than expected on key KPIs. Our order backlog grew to a record level of EUR 119 billion. Orders in the quarter declined by 22% as we were up against very high prior-year order levels at Siemens Gamesa and Gas Services particular. This set, orders for the half-year are still up by 1%. Revenue rose 4% in the quarter and 8% in the first half, in both cases driven particularly by Grid Technologies but also Transformation of Industry. Profit before special items rose from EUR 41 million to EUR 170 million in the quarter. This was also higher than expected but also influenced by positive currency effects.

This means so far this year's profit stands at EUR 378 million compared to a loss of EUR 241 million last year. Losses at Siemens Gamesa were for the first half somewhat lower than expected. Therefore, we are well on track to stay within our guidance for Siemens Gamesa for the full fiscal year. We continue to execute our divestment programs. Maria will give an update on this. The solid cash flow development drove our net liquidity higher so that we again have a very solid balance sheet. Based on the positive development during the first half, we are raising the guidance for the full year on several KPIs. We now expect 10%-12% revenue growth year-over-year. We lifted the lower end of the guidance for our profit margin before special items by 100 basis points.

We also expect much stronger cash flow, which in part reflects the stronger order pipeline as we see it today. As I said before, the market environment remains strong with electricity market growth exceeding our expectations. On this slide, it is shown that the midterm expectations for electricity consumption have increased over the last 2 years under the various scenarios. In order to meet this growing demand, our customers have been placing orders and, we expect that they will continue to do so. This means for us, that on the one side, Gas Services will continue to be a very strong pillar. Karim and his team have been improving the size and the quality of the order book, and it will be a predictable, profitable, and cash flow generating business for many years to come.

The other thing is the stronger than expected order and revenue growth in Grid Technologies means that Grid Technologies is on a trajectory to reach the size and profitability of Gas Services faster than expected. Booking orders of EUR 12 billion during the first half, Grid Technologies is on track to have higher orders than Gas Services for the second year running. The strong orders are now converting into revenue growth and a strong margin improvement. We already started some time ago to increase our capacities to cope with the growth in Grid Technologies. You may also have seen that we have launched new factory expansions for transformers in the U.S. and in India over the last couple of months.

Moving on to Siemens Gamesa, we are working through the quality matters on onshore and see the level of cost which we have been accrued for these quality matters still appropriate. In offshore, our ramp-up continues and is progressing as planned in Cuxhaven, Aalborg, and La Havre. I already said in the last quarter that in Hull we still not have reached the desired output volume. It is improving. We have been able to accelerate the ramp-up of the workforce and we have been able to avoid project delays, but also there still needs work to be done. We are not at the productivity level which we aspire. So this will still need some time. As well, obviously, we will need time to work through the quality matters. Over the last two years, Jochen brought many measures on the way to drive really the total operational turnaround.

And we have also now agreed a long-term strategic forward-looking plan, to bring finally the business back, to the desired double-digit operating margin. Let me, on this way forward, share, a couple of key points. First of all, an important message is we will be active in onshore and in offshore. In onshore, we have defined a more focused approach to the market. We will develop new onshore business based on, first of all, selected regions and second, based on revised 4X and 5X platforms but with a heavily reduced number of variants. This is what Jochen and the team has been also driving over the past couple of months to already simplify the product structure in our company.

We mentioned at the Capital Market Day that we will only focus on attractive markets where we have a stable regulatory framework, an attractive profit pool, and a value-based customer landscape and where there's a match between the market requirements and our offering. Europe offers these characteristics and therefore is a core market, and we intend to restart sales activities in Europe with the 4X towards the end of the fiscal year and for the 5X platform next year. We see similar characteristics also in the U.S. and will therefore also remain active in the U.S. based on existing products and intend to launch a revised product at a later stage. We may also serve other markets opportunistically, but only if it makes real commercial sense. For the new business, please keep in mind the volumes will not come back immediately.

We still have a big plan to work through, and we also have still the quality matters. But we are confident that we are able to rebuild a strong market position over the coming years, but it's really a long-term trajectory. Our service business in onshore remains an important pillar given that we are servicing one of the largest fleets in the market, and we will continue to do so. Based on the focus strategy, and the reduced workload in onshore we have because of the interruption of the sales activities, we are adapting our manufacturing footprint and optimize our structures. In offshore, as a market leader, we have been building a track record with the SG14 platform, which will be our volume product at least until the end of the decade. This is something which we see growing. So we're trying to balance, obviously, the two things.

We have for offshore received more orders in gigawatts for the SG14 platform than for any of the previous platforms. This year, you also might be aware in offshore, the auctions account for around 40 gigawatts of capacities, which marks a major restart of the offshore bidding activities for us in the coming years, and that obviously we want to capture with our volume product. We are also progressing now the integration of Siemens Gamesa functions into Siemens Energy. By 1st of June, we will start to integrate major central functions. And as I said before, over the last two years, Jochen has done a tremendous amount of difficult work and laid the foundation for the operational turnaround and how to integrate the business into Siemens Energy. We are currently initiating now, together with him, many measures which will determine the long-term improvement in our wind business.

This is obviously also where Jochen and I discussed how can we ensure a smooth generational change in the leadership at Siemens Gamesa now while we take so many long-term decisions. We decided that Jochen hands over the leadership of Siemens Gamesa on August 1st from himself to Vinod Philip, which is, I would say, probably a bit earlier than we actually wanted it to do, but it's really due to the fact that we are saying, "Hey, we are now embarking on all these long-term things." The good thing is, Jochen committed also to stay around as long as needed. He is a fantastic turnaround manager and has done a really good job. We are not through with the turnaround, also clearly say this. This is why we have to make this balance, wisely.

At the same time, it is something where, obviously, the long-term things we do not want to see, and this was our agreement, a leadership change in one and a half years from now when we are in the middle of the ramp-up. That is a bit the logic in case of a question. Vinod Philip, obviously, with his background in, running the service operations, in being the strategy head, in running central functions, and being a lead person in the integration of these functions in Siemens Energy is a very capable and helpful manager then to drive the journey from Jochen forward. Let me give you some highlights of projects of this quarter. Like always, at the CMD, we highlighted that roughly 30% of the new gas-fired power plant installation will be driven by the coal-to-gas shift.

Poland today is still generating 60% of its electricity from coal, but it is committed to phase out coal by 2049. We just won our third big coal-to-gas project in Poland. The power plant in Adamów will emit 50% less CO2 than the coal-fired one, which it is replacing. Positive news on that one. Last quarter, I also talked about the first installations of our SG11 turbine in the U.S. This quarter, I'm pleased to be able to announce that we have started the installation of the first 60 Siemens Gamesa SG14 wind turbines at the Moray West offshore wind farm in Scotland, with a rating of up to 14.7 MW. The total capacity will be close to 900 MW, enough power to supply 1.3 million homes in the U.K.

The third project is Adriatic Link, one in a row, I have to say, which is a direct bidirectional underwater cable with a total transmission capacity of 1 GW developed by Terna. The project will connect Italy's north and south regions over a distance of 250 km via the sea. After a Tyrrhenian Link, which we booked last year in quarter two, this is now our second HVDC project in Italy. And as you know, we also have set up a partnership with Air Liquide and hydrogen, and I have said before that brings really the best of our perspectives together. The tangible outcome is a 20 MW hydrogen electrolyzer, which we have installed and at the site in Oberhausen in Germany with Air Liquide. And it's a step into the hydrogen business, but obviously, there's a long way to go also there to make it really a growing business.

With this, I would hand over to Maria.

Maria Ferraro
CFO, Siemens Energy

Thank you, Christian, and good morning, everyone, from my side. So let's, perhaps get right into it and go to the overall Siemens Energy Group slide. As Christian just mentioned, the strong development from Q1 continues into the second quarter, and we see positive momentum across our businesses. Looking at orders, orders decreased year-over-year. This was driven, as expected, from decreases at Siemens Gamesa. This is due to the sharply lower volume of large orders and Gas Services, also primarily due to timing shifts and a high basis of comparison. Overall decline was around 21% on a comparable basis. Orders came in at EUR 9.5 billion, book-to-bill still above one at 1.14, and this drives our order backlog once again to a new high of EUR 119 billion.

Revenue for the group grew by 3.7% on a comparable basis to EUR 8.3 billion. This was driven by growth in Transformation of Industries just over 11%, and especially at Grid Technologies, just shy of 26%, and this offset declines at Gas Services and Siemens Gamesa. Once again, we had a very strong service season in the second quarter, and our service revenue grew stronger than the new unit's business, which resulted in a favorable business mix in the second quarter. Profit before special items improved to positive EUR 170 million. This is mainly driven by Grid Technologies due to higher volume and underlying conditions in backlog and Gas Services, again, due to a very strong service season. In addition, this quarter, we benefited from a positive currency effect associated with the devaluation of the Egyptian pound in March of this year.

Just a quick explanation in this regard: on the 6th of March, 2024, the Central Bank of Egypt allowed the Egyptian pound to float, and subsequently, the Egyptian pound depreciated by approximately 60%. Our company in Egypt holds external sales contracts mainly in euro. As there's no liquid forward market in Egyptian pound, the resulting euro risks could not be hedged. Accordingly, this led to foreign currency gains in the local financial statements, which are prepared in Egyptian pound. These locally recognized foreign currency gains carried through at the SE Group level, and therefore, we benefited from a foreign currency-related gain of approximately EUR 92 million in the second quarter above the profit line. This is just also a side note. This is the absolutely appropriate treatment. This has no economic benefit and does not qualify for our special items definition as such.

Given that mainly Gas Services and Grid Technologies are active in Egypt, this is reflected in these two business areas, which you'll see later in the presentation. Looking at special items, this amounted to positive EUR 331 million. This is driven by pre-tax gains from the sale of businesses. This is related to our ongoing progress of our divestment program. As a result, this brings us to profit for Siemens Energy, for the quarter of EUR 501 million and a net income of EUR 108 million. Free cash flow pre-tax, this improved strongly to positive EUR 483 million. This is contributing across all businesses, but especially with great very good conversion on our Gas Services business as the strongest contributor, also due to the development of operating net working capital. The cash outflow of Siemens Gamesa was a bit lower than expected.

This is purely due to timing shifts, and we maintain the overall -EUR 2 billion free cash flow guidance, for Siemens Gamesa, but we'll talk about that a little more later, when it comes to the guidance overall. Moving on to our order backlog. As I mentioned, the backlog reached another record high of EUR 119 billion at the end of the quarter. And of course, what's important not only about the growth is the order backlog quality. And here, we see the positive trends continue. This is supporting and underpins our midterm targets. Close to 50% of the overall backlog is service. And this means, as Christian mentioned in the context of GS, predictable, recurring, resilient, high margin, and cash-generating business for many years to come.

We're also seeing strong backlog growth in our new units business, and this is also important as the new units help us to grow the installed base and to build the base for additional service revenue in the future. Now, let's take a look at our liquidity status and the cash bridge for the quarter. But first, a quick update on our divestment program. Where do we stand? Here, we made, again, very strong progress in the second quarter after closing the sale of the 18% stake in Siemens Limited India to Siemens AG in the first quarter. Just as a gentle reminder, this transaction resulted in a cash inflow of roughly EUR 2.1 billion and a one-time P&L gain of close to EUR 1.7 billion. In the second quarter, we closed another three transactions.

We also mentioned this, in the Q1 presentation, the sale of Trench Group to Triton, the sale of our 32% investment in Windar, and one other smaller transaction. All of this resulted in cash inflow of close to EUR 700 million and around EUR 350 million in book gains from those disposals. So therefore, after the first six months, we now stand at more than EUR 2.9 billion cash proceeds, from our divestment program with one other smaller transaction still in progress. So as a result, we revise upward our original guidance for divestment proceeds from the EUR 2.5 billion-EUR 3 billion range to around EUR 3 billion. So now looking at the group's cash bridge as at the end of Q2 overall, as you see here, we have EUR 5.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents, EUR 4 billion of financial debt, of which EUR 3.3 billion is long term.

This brings us to a net cash position of EUR 9 billion. This is up from the net cash position of EUR 1.4 billion at the end of Q1. This is again in line with our target to maintain a net cash position throughout the year. The EUR 700 million of net proceeds, which I just mentioned, as well as positive free cash flow, of course, constituted the main cash inflows whereby we also had outflows related to, of course, tax, treasury shares, financial interest, and some other smaller items. Net cash adjusted for our pension obligation then amounted to EUR 1.3 billion at the quarter end. This is an improvement of more than EUR 2 billion versus the end of the last financial year. So just one word on the undrawn credit line. In February, we successfully refinanced the existing revolving credit facilities with a consortium of international banks.

This reduced the total volume of the RCF from EUR 5 billion to EUR 4 billion. Of course, as a result of the successful financial integration of Siemens Gamesa and following an optimization that we've been working on of our financial structure, the new RCF has a maturity of five years. So with all of this, we now have a very strong balance sheet as of the second quarter of fiscal year 2024, again in line with our commitment of a conservative financial risk profile as well as our commitment to an investment-grade rating profile. Moving now to the businesses, starting with Gas Services here, a very solid quarter for Gas Services indeed against a very strong prior year quarter with a continuation of its strong track record in profitability and cash conversion. In the second quarter in GS, we booked orders of EUR 3.4 billion.

This is just shy of 21%, below the high base of comparison in prior year. From a regional perspective, the main orders come from North America and the Middle East. Book-to-bill was a strong 1.3, and the order backlog rose to EUR 43 billion. In Q2, we booked 15 gas turbines, greater than 10 MW, thereof 11 large gas turbines and 4 industrial gas turbines. The market for gas turbines was strong in Q2, and we reached a market share of, for those above 10 MW, of around 20%. Revenue for Gas Services in the second quarter was nearly at quarter previous quarter's level but down year-over-year and came in at EUR 2.6 billion. Growth in the service business of +4% was more than offset by a decrease in the new units business.

And again, this resulted in a positive, favorable business mix in Q2, but with respect to the new unit business, this is mainly timing-related. Profit before special items came in at EUR 381 million. This is above the already high level of prior year's quarter. This is reflecting just over a 14% margin. In this quarter in GS, we benefited from a very strong service business, as I indicated before, as well as some positive one-off effects and the Egyptian currency devaluation, which had a positive impact in GS of EUR 56 million. As a reminder, the seasonality in our Gas Service business is such that the mix in the second half this is, typical in all years, particularly in Q4, that shifts towards more of a new unit mix and less service business, which therefore has an impact on the margin.

This year, again, will be no different than in prior years. Moving on to Grid Technologies business, yet again, our GT business delivered significant improvements across all KPIs on the back of a very strong execution and a very positive market environment. Well done to the GT team. Orders in the second quarter exceeded prior year's quarter level by just over 27% and rose to EUR 3.7 billion. This development was driven by GT's product business and a higher level of grid solution orders, as Christian just mentioned, for example, the order in Italy, the Adriatic Link. And, of course, earlier when we talked about the Q2 awards and milestones, book-to-bill came in at 1.7, and the order backlog went up to a record EUR 30 billion in GT.

Revenue grew substantially by 25.5% year-over-year on a comparison comparable basis to EUR 2.2 billion, with main contributions, as I mentioned earlier, both in the product and the solution business. Profit before special items more than doubled, came in strong at EUR 250 million. This is a margin of 11.4%. This improvement is driven by higher volume, comparatively higher margin in the process order backlog, as well as, like in Gas Services, the positive effect related to the Egypt currency devaluation, which had a positive impact of roughly EUR 30 million. Very strong quarter for the GT business, so thank you very much to the team. Well done. Moving on to Transformation of Industries here, TI, they continue to execute towards the goal of further profit expansion and turnaround with a clear focus on maximizing the service share, selective selectivity to manage profitability, as well as underlying operational execution.

This is again reflected nicely in the TI Q2 results. Orders second quarter, we booked EUR 1.6 billion. This exceeds the prior year by just over 16% comparable. This increase was mainly driven by a large order in the compression business in the Middle East of nearly EUR 400 million. The book-to-bill came in strong at 1.24, and the backlog rose to EUR 8 billion, and this is up more than 20% versus prior year. Looking at the different businesses within TI, we see a continuous positive market environment. In our sustainable energy system business, the electrolyzer business, the long-term outlook remains intact, but in the short term, we do observe delays in the release of funding commitments due to regulatory uncertainties, for example, in the U.S. and in Europe. Our factory ramp-up plans remain unchanged, and we focus on the successful execution of projects from our existing pipeline.

Revenue in TI grew significantly by just over 11% year-over-year on a comparable basis, with all four independently managed businesses, or IMBs, as we call them, at or above prior year quarter's level, with EAD at over just shy of 28% and the compression business at almost 9% growth, showing the highest growth rates. Revenue growth was supported by the execution of a strong backlog and a continued service momentum. Service revenue in the quarter increased close to 20% versus prior year. Profit increased came in at EUR 79 million. This is a margin of 6.2%, particularly in EAD and compression, which benefited from increased volume, especially, like I mentioned, in the strong service business and better pricing. So now turning to Siemens Gamesa here, as Christian mentioned, he provided you with an update on the status of Siemens Gamesa with respect to quality, et cetera.

Now, looking at the figures, orders in the quarter were as expected, sharply down from the prior year and came in at EUR 0.9 billion. Onshore's orders continue to be impacted by the temporary suspension of sales activities for the 4X and 5X turbines. As expected, the offshore and service businesses did not receive any large orders in this quarter, again, due to timing. The same quarter in the prior year, for example, included a EUR 1.7 billion order in the UK. Order backlog, as we continue to convert, decreased to EUR 39 billion, and revenue declined moderately by just shy of 5% comparable, as lower revenue in the onshore and service business did not more than offset the growth in our offshore business. Profit at EUR -448 million. Again, profit continues to be impacted by project margins, certain shifts, and higher plan costs, as we know.

As mentioned earlier, we continue to support guidance for Gamesa in profit at the -EUR 2 billion-ish level for the year. Summing up the achievements in total for the second quarter of fiscal year 2024 across Siemens Energy, we did better than expected on KPIs. We had a solid quarter in the former gas and power businesses and stability at Siemens Gamesa. Our balance sheet remains strong. We saw another improvement in our net cash position supported by the strong progress of the underlying business and our ongoing divestment program of non-core assets. Now, moving on to the financial outlook for the year, the new forecast is based on higher revenue growth assumptions for all segments and higher profit assumptions for Grid Technologies in particular.

In terms of free cash flow pre-tax, we expect all segments to exceed the excluding Siemens Gamesa. I should be clear there, excluding Siemens Gamesa to exceed the original expectations. This is particularly applicable for Gas Services and Grid Technologies, as they are both experiencing strong cash inflows. This is driven by customer prepayments as we benefit from continuing order growth. We now expect Siemens Energy to achieve a comparable revenue growth, excluding currency translation and portfolio effects, in the range of 10%-12%. This was previously 3%-7%. Profit margin before special items is now expected between -1% and +1%. This was previously -2% and +1%. Unchanged, we expect a net income of up to EUR 1 billion, again, including the impacts from our disposals and the acceleration of the portfolio transformation.

Furthermore, we now expect positive free cash flow pre-tax of up to EUR 1 billion. Previously, this was a negative cash flow of around EUR 1 billion. And, last but not least, we expect proceeds from the disposals, as I mentioned before, of around EUR 3 billion, which was previously in the range of positive EUR 2.5 billion-EUR 3 billion. The amended overall assumptions per business area are there and just reference to the slide. And so with that, thank you very much for listening, and I hand over back to Christian. Thank you.

Christian Bruch
CEO, Siemens Energy

Yeah, thank you, Maria. And I will keep it very short. The key priorities have not changed for the fiscal year. Deliver profitable growth. We've seen that. Fix the wind business, and maintain a solid financial foundation. So far, we are well on track and will continue to do our homework step after step, I always have to say, right? I mean, it's really a trajectory and going quarter after quarter through this. There's a lot of work ahead of us. And with this, I look forward to the question-and-answer session. Michael, over to you.

Michael Hagmann
Head of Investor Relations, Siemens Energy

Thank you, Christian. Thank you, Maria. We will now have just approximately 30 minutes for the Q&A. It's already 11 people that have posted, that they want to ask questions. So I would kindly ask you to stick to one question. And as always, if we have time at the end, we will then, you know, allow for second questions. The first three questions go to , Gael de-Bray, and Alexander Jones. So Vivek, if you go ahead. Thank you.

Vivek Midha
Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Thank you very much, Michael. Good morning, everyone. I'd like to ask about the guidance. The question is, why did you potentially not raise it even more? I mean, if I look more closely at the Grid Technology margin guidance, you've raised the margin guidance to 8%-10%. But that still implies a lower margin in the second half despite an acceleration in revenue growth and unlike in gas, there's no question about service outage patterns. So would you see your guidance as still relatively conservative? Thank you.

Maria Ferraro
CFO, Siemens Energy

Yep. I'll take that. Hello. Good morning, Vivek. Thank you for the question. And maybe let me just further provide some explanation, excuse me, around the profit guidance. So we have narrowed the profit guidance, like you said. Effectively, we increased the midpoint by around 50 basis points. Also, as you mentioned, this reflects our raised expectations for Grid Technologies, where we upgraded and increased our profit outlook by around 100 basis points. Again, in line with H1 performance, where we did have a couple of one-off positive effects. But this is, of course, driven by the accelerated and profitable growth. But a large contribution to the revenue upside does stem from Siemens Gamesa. And here, as you know, we're working through our fiscal year 2024 very carefully, but that, of course, revenue comes with mostly negative or low margin projects.

So as a result, I mean, again, this is why we've narrowed the profit guidance. And of course, if we continue to perform at this level, then, of course, you know, it could be the potential that that we're at the upper end of the guidance. However, we do maintain the guidance as is, between -1 and 1.

Thank you.

Vivek Midha
Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Thank you very much.

Michael Hagmann
Head of Investor Relations, Siemens Energy

Maria, next question goes to Gerde Bré. Gerre, please go ahead.

Gael de-Bray
Senior Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank AG

Around Gamesa, can you now say with certainty that the onshore quality topics and the offshore ramp-up issues are behind the group, and specifically on the onshore side of the portfolio? I guess it will likely take at least a year to rebuild the onshore backlog. So how do you intend to deal with that from a cost-cutting and capacity standpoint?

Christian Bruch
CEO, Siemens Energy

Good morning, Gerre. I will take that. First of all, what I can say is, we obviously have been more or less through the whole fleet. We have not seen any new findings in terms of root causes on the quality measures, and we are moving into implementation. And in this regard, this is why we also said it's a good time now to draw a line in the sand and also address a way forward. But keep in mind, and I always want to caution us that we will need to work through the matters, and also you will see the cash outflowing over the years to come. It's a long program which we are running. But obviously, the team and Jochen has done a good job of bringing these different things together.

Offshore, I think I said it in my words, partly, in how we are not there where we need to be, right? In terms of productivity, this is, we're ramping up more people. We're extending the production facilities, but we are not with a productivity level where we want to be yet. It is improving, but it's on its way, step after step after step, but still work to be done. But, this is where I'm seeing the team work in the right directions. Let me call it this way. The rebuild of the onshore backlog is a good one. Thanks for that question. It will take longer, right? I mean, very clearly, we start slowly. It will not come to the same amount of sales activity what you're used to see. It is stepwise uplift and then obviously 5X only next year.

Also keep in mind, once you start the sales process, then it needs time to get the order in, then afterwards until it lands in the factories. We will have a point in time when we also need to manage capacities, factory load, and whatever. This is why we also said very clearly we are looking into this. We do this in parallel with some other organizational measures where we try to reshape the organization, clearer accountabilities. That is something what we're discussing internally. So we will also touch organizational structures and also people. To be very clear, we're working through the details on that, to adapt also to the focused outlook going forward. It will take, let's say, time really to rebuild this onshore backlog what you're used to have been seeing.

Gael de-Bray
Senior Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank AG

Okay. Thanks very much. And, what about the project margin in the backlog for onshore and offshore? Are we still talking about the same levels, around low single digit and mid single digit, right?

Christian Bruch
CEO, Siemens Energy

Look, on onshore, nothing has changed yet, right? Because obviously, we are good or let's say close to a year of sales stop, and really have to rebuild this slowly. Offshore, keep in mind the things what we are now contracting is really revenue in 2028, 2029, right? So that's very long out. Everything else what has been in also so it's coming in revenue 2025, 2026, 2027 is really in the backlog. And we're working through this. What Maria indicated also, this is also the second half, and we still remain also with our guidance on Siemens Gamesa with around EUR 2 billion negative loss, in total, summing that up.

Gael de-Bray
Senior Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank AG

Thank you very much.

Michael Hagmann
Head of Investor Relations, Siemens Energy

Right. Thanks. Next question goes to Alex Virgo. So Alex, please go ahead.

Alex Virgo
Capital Goods Research Analyst, Bank of America

Thanks, Michael. Good morning, Christian and Maria. I wondered if you could just clarify the SGRE's free cash flow guidance within that up to EUR 1 billion, because obviously you mentioned it, all other divisions are ahead of expectations. Gamesa remains unchanged. So I just thought it would be helpful if you could clarify that. And then second question, just going back to your provisioning, and the original plans around the remediation program, I'm just double-checking, if I read through your H1 report, you talk about development of failure rates continues to be closely monitored, but failures observed during this period being slightly higher than expected for certain components. So I just want to work out what that is, and what you're referring to there, if that's something to do with the ongoing monitoring or something to do with the 4X and the 5X.

Christian Bruch
CEO, Siemens Energy

Thank you.

Yeah. Let me take the failure rates and Maria comments on. Good morning, Alex, first of all. First of all, on the quality provisions, what we see with the failure rates is I think we understand better the diversity of the different factors. I think this is what you see, and this is what we're analyzing at the moment. Then obviously, you come down to a much more detailed picture. It doesn't lead to the situation that we're changing our accruals on the quality matters. But obviously, what we see in certain fleet areas where there's more factors in which determine what it is. It's a main bearing from a certain supplier in a certain wind regime and so forth. Then if you would take this specific lot, then you see certain higher failure rates than the average.

This is what we're trying to cluster. It doesn't change our approach to it, but obviously, we deemed it necessary to flag that up, simply in case of the numbers. As I said, we're still with the same accruals as before.

Okay. And I guess there's a flip side of that where this is a function of narrowing down the problem and working out exactly where the bigger issues are rather than necessarily saying there's a change in overall assumptions.

Correct. You could also get additional levers in your hand, right? One example, just to give you a little bit background on this, is certain things we're seeing, how can you adapt the control software, right? And then so you learn additional measures on how you also can rectify things afterwards. This is what it is about.

Alex Virgo
Capital Goods Research Analyst, Bank of America

Great. Thank you.

Maria Ferraro
CFO, Siemens Energy

Hi, Alex. Good morning. So maybe going to cash and just to give a bit of context again, the underlying performance and, of course, record order intake in the first half year where we have EUR 25 billion in orders that also contributed to that, you know, overall very strong cash. If you look at the full year, right now, we're at a net cash of EUR 1.3 billion. So after two quarters, we stand at 1.3. I mean, we generated a free cash flow pre-tax around EUR 200 million. For the second year, we see the cash inflows and cash outflows broadly balanced, which should bring us to a similar, net cash position around the level of Q2, so around 1.3.

This is what we're targeting because, of course, we have our cash inflows, you know, the cash generation that we're expecting in H2 in line with our new guidance. Again, you know, the up to EUR 1 billion. And on the other hand, of course, we see the regular cash outflows as well, related to that. So in summary, we would and I expect that we stay at around the net cash position that we have at Q2. That's where we will land broadly in Q4 at the end of the year.

Christian Bruch
CEO, Siemens Energy

Okay.

Thanks.

Alex Virgo
Capital Goods Research Analyst, Bank of America

Great. Thanks, Maria. Thanks, Christian.

Maria Ferraro
CFO, Siemens Energy

Thank you. And the next three questions go to Akash Gupta, Phil Buller, and Sebastian Growe. Akash, please go ahead.

Akash Gupta
Co-Founder and CEO, GreyOrange

Yes. Hi. Good morning. Thanks for your time. I have a question for Maria. So when I look at your net contract liabilities, they are up to EUR 13.7 billion from EUR 11.8 billion at the end of last fiscal year. How shall we think about development of these net contract liabilities in both near-term as well as medium-term? And maybe a follow-up to that is that, at the Capital Market Day, you guided EUR 1 billion-EUR 2 billion cumulative free cash flow in FY 2024 to 2026. And just wondering how does that changes on the back of increase in 2024 free cash flow guidance? Thank you.

Maria Ferraro
CFO, Siemens Energy

Yeah.

Thank you, Akash, for that. You're right. Our net contracts did develop in strongly, let's say, with respect to our top line. How do you think about that in the near-term? I think you should think about that, broadly speaking, again, in terms of our book-to-bill greater than one. I think it's 11 quarters that we now have a book-to-bill greater than one. We see that order momentum continuing for the rest of this fiscal year. And of course, that is correlated, if you like, in the way those contract liabilities versus contract assets move is correlated to our order development. So we do not see any major swing back or huge or material swing back, neither in the short-term nor in the mid-term in that regard based on the continued market momentum, market development and momentum.

With respect to the cash flow overall development, quite pleased. Again, like I said, it's up to EUR 1 billion of cash. Of course, again, that's also correlated to the order development. So we're pleased with that development so far. And of course, we're in the process of determining what that does mean for next year. But clearly, that market momentum has continued into this fiscal year. And we see that growth and that momentum continuing until, and into the next year. So that's essentially how you should look at it. Thank you.

Michael Hagmann
Head of Investor Relations, Siemens Energy

Thank you, Maria. The next question goes to Phil Buller. Phil, please, if you go ahead.

Phil Buller
Managing Director, JPMorgan

Yeah. Hi. Good morning. Thanks for the question. One for Christian, please, if I may, on end markets. Obviously, the market's very good for grids and gas turbines, but perhaps you can talk about the market share evolution for both of those businesses and perhaps if you can see differences emerging between maybe gaining share in Europe versus the US. And then a follow-up on the last question, if I may, on cash for Maria. In terms of the Siemens India topic, obviously, we've had some proceeds, but how should we think about the holding today or how are you thinking about potential cash liabilities and the timing of that as and when the separation of the local equity takes place, please? Thanks.

Christian Bruch
CEO, Siemens Energy

Yeah. Thanks, Phil, for the question. And obviously, it's a good one. Obviously, seeing that there is, if you take grid, for example, there's strong momentum in a couple of regions. However, obviously, Europe is for us, leading in terms of the market buildout. US, we see following, let's say, behind it. There is a reason why we obviously put the factory into the US very clearly because we want to capture that growth and obviously, also, develop nicely our market share. But at the moment, that is definitely, Europe-driven in terms of all the HVDC projects which are happening here on the Gas Services side. As Maria indicated, it was a strong quarter also with Middle East. Never forget that region and, also partly the US.

If you look on Gas Services, I think you also have to look on what type of turbine are you talking about, large gas turbines, smaller turbines. I think that is a factor what has to be taken into account. And, obviously, we are looking into how does this develop, and how do we continue to do it in a period where definitely, we, the whole market momentum is positive and the load in the system is high. But definitely, we want to have a good presence in the U.S. also in Gas Services to be very clear on that.

Maria Ferraro
CFO, Siemens Energy

Thank you, Phil, for the question regarding Siemens India. Of course, this is the Q1 transaction, as you know, completely finalized in Q1 with proceeds of EUR 2.1 billion. I mean, looking at the future, I mean, there, it really is also step by step, because we now have to look at a carve-out and a demerger process that takes some time. So clearly, this is something that is, in a mid-term viewpoint, so well into the future. At this point in time, there's no necessity for a liability to be booked because it would be difficult to actually quantify that because there's so many factors between now and then that are not known, at this point in time.

Phil Buller
Managing Director, JPMorgan

Thank you.

Maria Ferraro
CFO, Siemens Energy

So the same as in Q1, as I mentioned in Q1. Thanks, Phil.

Michael Hagmann
Head of Investor Relations, Siemens Energy

Thank you. Next question goes to Sebastian Growe. Seb, please go ahead. Sebastian. Operator, can you check if the line is open?

Operator

Sebastian, may I request to unmute your line, please?

Michael Hagmann
Head of Investor Relations, Siemens Energy

I think we'll revert to Sebastian then after, after we hand over to AJ Patel, who will have the next question. Then thereafter, Nick Green, and then we'll Mackie, and then thereafter, we will revert to Seb.

AJ Patel
Founder, Momentic

Good morning. Thank you for the presentation. My question's around Grid Technologies. I'm trying to understand is that you're seeing this fantastic order intake and the book build, and I'm trying to understand how much is increasing the length in terms of the number of years of revenue you get from this business and how much can actually lead to revenue increases? Because if we look at this year's target, clearly, that number's gone up substantially, and I have no real sort of understanding to what capacity you have to add to those numbers as time goes on. So, you know, can we grow the revenue another 20%, 30% next year, or are we reaching the limits of the capacity you have before you have to invest behind before you can then accommodate for that higher growth?

Is there anything that you can give us to give us sort of color for and the appreciation, you know, the dynamics at play here?

Christian Bruch
CEO, Siemens Energy

Fantastic question. Thanks. Thanks very much for that. First of all, I have to say both businesses, you have a short-term running product business, and you have a long-term running with these HVDC big projects, which is then multiple years and then a very long backlog, even reaching out sometimes under 2035 in terms of of the planning. Both of them are very good loaded and grow substantially. You have seen for a reason that we obviously increased the factories to cope with this additional growth. We're also driving standardization and frameworks as much as possible to get more through the systems. But as you rightly said, there is a limit to that in terms of fundamental growth. We have seen a big uplift now. It's our fastest growing business.

It will continue to stay on a strong trajectory to be a double-digit billion and a double-digit margin type of business. But, I would also say there's limitations to it. So, I mean, I would also say don't get carried away, immediately, on these year-on-year growth rates. We will share new updated numbers, obviously, with the year-end call, and this, please give us time for it. And, we started, obviously, some of the capacity extensions also roughly 1.5 or 2 years ago in the background. These are paying off now. That's a good thing. But, you can obviously and I would absolutely agree with this, you cannot continue to grow year-on-year 30%. But, as I said, it will be our fastest growing business.

It will be a core pillar of our going forward strategy, and let us come back to you with updated numbers by the end of the fiscal year.

AJ Patel
Founder, Momentic

Thank you very much.

Michael Hagmann
Head of Investor Relations, Siemens Energy

Thank you both. Next question goes to Nick Green. Nick, if you go ahead, please.

Nick Green
Founder, The Green List

Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. Are you able to give more details around the multi-year recovery plan for offshore or for onshore wind, please? And in terms of details of the question here, presumably, you must be facing a strategic balancing act between the volume of units you hope to sell in the future, the price of those units, and then the cost base. Now, it may not be within your influence to achieve a higher selling price, in which case your choice would seem to be, to get the margin up to, number one, materially cut that operating footprint and lower the cost base, or two, and it's perhaps counterintuitive, simplify the product and sell it at a much lower price to ensure sufficient volume to support the marginal throughput.

Can you please discuss the merits of either cutting your cost base or potentially simplifying and cutting your average selling price in the event that the market doesn't support a higher selling price as you hope? Thank you.

Christian Bruch
CEO, Siemens Energy

Yeah. Thanks, Nick, for the question. Obviously, that as you rightly said, that is a long multi-year plan which we're now embarking on, and this will unfold over several years. I look on the market much more regionally than we used to do in the past, and I obviously also look, first of all, from a product perspective. One thing which we have been doing or what Jochen has been doing with his team over the last 12 months is to substantially reduce the number of variants of the different products to simplify the process. I would not call it simplify the product because it's still a product, but simplify the variations. How do you then do procurement for it? How many different specifications you can have?

It's a simplification in these types of processes which allow, obviously, also to tackle cost in terms of what are you paying for your sourcing, how long, how do you get productivity up in the factories, which is a tremendous factor in the overall cost base, and you shape your regional footprint towards that because you have that product that is a region you're going to tackle. That's a bit the logic. Obviously, at the end, to have a cost base which allows you to, even at a lower volume range, to earn some money.

In hindsight, it means there's, let's say, regions, or certain variants which we will not support anymore and where we cut or shut off or hand over, and this is at the moment under definition, but you will definitely see us touching the organization in terms of getting adapted to this. The other thing is obviously keep in mind that we are working through a trough where we have a low in revenue in onshore and only gradually going to return, and also this will have consequences. But simplifying also the footprint, you may know that we also discussed, I think, on the Capital Markets Day a bit the make versus buy discussions. That is also an element of that where we simplify our back office or, let's say, factory infrastructure.

That is part of that, but I also think at the end, it's really about this regional and product focus. It's not so much about hey, lowering ASP prices. This is not what I'm seeing. And keep in mind, we also will balance it service and new unit and onshore. We will offer services for our onshore turbines, and for us, it is important that we provide reliable and really plannable units, and this is where we have to get better, and simplicity in the product variants will lead to that. And that is a core driver for us, which means more focus in regions and more focus on products.

Nick Green
Founder, The Green List

That's very helpful, Christian. If I could just have a short follow-up, please. If possible, are you able to give any color around the timing of Jochen leaving? It just seems a little odd for a turnaround guy to be leaving before the turnaround has established itself.

Christian Bruch
CEO, Siemens Energy

Yeah. No, Nick, thanks very much for the question. I think that is absolutely important because, honestly, this is what I said, right? I would love to have it probably to do a year later. We are not through with the restructuring. The reason why Jochen and I decided to do it now is because of some changes in the organization according to the long-term forward-looking plan. We are so doing so many decisions at this point in time over the next six months, which determine the next three, four, five years, that we said we don't want anybody to come in 12 months or 15 months down the road and say, "Guess what?

I change a bit." Then we want to have a stable organization and also give the clear message to the organization to say, "The things we are doing now, we are doing for the future, and they're going to be with you for a longer time, really, to fight back." That is the key logic behind it. Jochen will stay around, as you said, as long as we need him, and that is good because he has done an excellent job. He's one of the best turnaround managers, which I know in the industry. So that was a bit the logic where we had to find the balance, and there is never an optimum time for that.

Nick Green
Founder, The Green List

Thank you.

Thank you. Next question goes to Will Mackie. Will, please go ahead.

Will Mackie
Supply Chain Manager, Kutol Products Company, Inc

Hi. Good morning. Thanks. I'm going to stick with Siemens Gamesa for a moment. I think you've just described there's so many decisions to happen over the next six months, you know, the timing of reentry into the onshore, the ramp-up in the offshore. It was only November that you presented a turnaround plan for Siemens Gamesa with a target of reaching break-even by 2026. I mean, how should we think about that midterm projection now given there seem to be another set of moving parts ahead of us?

Christian Bruch
CEO, Siemens Energy

Thanks. Please don't, I hope we didn't confuse it, right? I mean, what we said in November holds to the same logic, what we did over the last months detailing out the time thereafter. Where do we take it to? The plan towards 2026 has not changed, and obviously, the program is set up, will be executed, and that is what the team is lining up. What we wanted in the last months really to define how does it look until the end of the decade, what business is interesting, can we make certain parts of the business successful, or if not, do something else with it. This is what we worked on, but that is really particular for the time, and this is why I said long-term strategic plan after 2026.

It doesn't change the other measures, which will be heavily influenced by working through the existing offshore order backlog and ramping up the facilities, and obviously implementing the quality changes. Important for us was, do we believe we can make it a long-term successful business? This was the work which was happening now. Doesn't change anything from the pictures which were laid out last Capital Markets Day.

Will Mackie
Supply Chain Manager, Kutol Products Company, Inc

Thanks. A follow-up, please, if I may.

Michael Hagmann
Head of Investor Relations, Siemens Energy

You're running up against the hour, Will, and there's still a couple of questions in the queue. Sorry, but I just to be fair, if that's okay, I'll call you later. So next question goes to Sebastian Growe, then before we hand over to Max Yates and Sean McLoughlin, which would then conclude the call. So over to Seb, please.

Sebastian Growe
Head of Capital Goods Research, BNP Paribas

Thanks, Michael. Hi, Maria. Hi, Christian. And sorry for that, technical issue here. First one on GT Outlook. You raised the organic growth target to more than 30% for 2024. Last 12 months, book-to-bill is above 2. And obviously, the sales now is about EUR 10 billion or a little lower in fiscal 2024, whereas the order intake is more than EUR 15 billion. So you mentioned the capacity increase, etc. You have a double-digit, low double-digit, midterm growth target. So how long might it take to really grow into this kind of EUR 15 billion new dimension? And if I may have a quick follow-up on the 4X relaunch, why hasn't this been synchronized with a 5X? Have you realized any unexpected challenges here? So that would be my 2 questions. Thanks.

Christian Bruch
CEO, Siemens Energy

Yeah. I mean, on the growth, I mean, we obviously with Grid Technologies regard, we're going to share that by year-end call in terms of doing this in terms of how long does it take. Keep one thing in mind with a larger project particularly. It's not always us who is the bottleneck. There's cables, there's investment plans, there's regulatory, and this is obviously also what we have to take into a mind to define how fast unfold certain things into revenue. But as I said, we are working through the details to say that is now the revised plan, and we're going to share that by the year-end call. Why has 4X and 5X not be harmonized?

It is a different product, and it touches different markets in terms of different wind regime where you're going to apply that. It's not the same market. Obviously, on the 5X, which is a newer product where we also said we want to look on several solutions before we relaunch it, that was simply part of the overall program, in terms of looking on revised designs. At the end, it's also regionally different market and wind regimes. So I think the staggered approach makes absolutely sense.

Sebastian Growe
Head of Capital Goods Research, BNP Paribas

Okay. Thank you.

Nick Green
Founder, The Green List

Thanks. Max, next question goes to you, and if you could keep to one question, that'd be great.

Speaker 14

Yes. Thank you. Good morning. I'll be quick. Just, I guess my question is if I look across all of kind of power infrastructure, I think about the cable companies that I look at that you do some of these projects with, everyone is talking about margins on new orders that they're taking today being significantly higher than where they were three or four years ago. And I guess my sort of simple question is, is there any reason for the products that you do when we think about supply-demand tightness in the industry shouldn't also be seeing much higher margins on the orders that you're taking today versus three years ago? Well, this is a true statement, right? And we said we have a good pricing regime and an improving margin on the backlog.

Christian Bruch
CEO, Siemens Energy

So we are happy with that in terms of how this is developing. At the same time, obviously, it will always be a balance in terms of, okay, where is this going to and what is the overall cost for the grid buildout because it will cost more money than people expected. But definitely, the margin and pricing improvement has been better. Keep in mind, for long term, years ago, this business has not earned the capital cost. The other thing which I think is important apart from pricing is really the T's and C's. And that is something where the risk-reward profile is much more balanced than it used to be, in the grid's contracts, where the industry finds a way, obviously, to share fairly risk and rewards across the different contracts.

Michael Hagmann
Head of Investor Relations, Siemens Energy

Thank you. And the very last.

Christian Bruch
CEO, Siemens Energy

No problem. Thank you.

Michael Hagmann
Head of Investor Relations, Siemens Energy

Very last question goes to Sean D. McLoughlin. Sean, please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Thank you. Just a quick one from me, continuing on with Grid Technologies. When do your new factories in the U.S. and India actually start generating revenues? And just wondering on a three-year view, if EUR 600 million of CapEx that you announced back in the Capital Market Day is enough to keep up with the demand demand environment that you're looking at?

Christian Bruch
CEO, Siemens Energy

Yeah. The last question, I would once again revert to the really, when we review our Outlook and get back after the fiscal year to you in terms of, so far, everything we have communicated on the Capital Markets Day stands valid. Oh boy. What was the first question?

Speaker 15

Second question was when we will generate revenues out of the.

Christian Bruch
CEO, Siemens Energy

Oh, sorry. Sorry. Thank you. It was a long, it was an early morning. Sorry. And, I mean, normally, obviously, we have started the, how do you say, the foundation laying, right? And, but, expect roughly two years, when the factory is going to start to produce. Thank you.

Michael Hagmann
Head of Investor Relations, Siemens Energy

Thank you. With that, I would hand over to Christian for some closing remarks.

Christian Bruch
CEO, Siemens Energy

No, thank you very much. And I just want to still say, right? I mean, we are happy with the quarter, but it's also step after step. It is a business which takes time. It's lots of things ahead of us. We have to work through the quality matters in Siemens Gamesa. This will be a long period. But I really would like to thank the Siemens Energy team of having done a tremendous job. And, obviously, thanks very much for your attention today. Stay tuned, and speak to you soon.

Michael Hagmann
Head of Investor Relations, Siemens Energy

Thanks, everyone.

Operator

Thank you very much. That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, ladies and gentlemen. A recording of this conference call will be available on the investor relations section of Siemens Energy website. The website address is www.siemens.

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