Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Evonik Industries AG Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. I am Vasilios, the Chorus Call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in a listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by question and answer session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and one on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Christian Kullmann, CEO. Please go ahead.
Thanks a lot, and welcome to our Quarterly Earnings Call also from my side. To sum it up, it was another quarter in which we have pre-released our numbers. It was another quarter where we have again delivered on the quite elevated expectations. Another quarter of sector-leading earnings growth, and ladies and gentlemen, another quarter of very strong free cash flow generation. So ladies and gentlemen, let's go right into the topics of today. Second quarter has once again more proven that our strategy agenda is paying off, and our numbers are more and more reflecting exactly that. What is driving our growth? It is a combination. It is a combination of, first of all, self-helping measures and at the same time, our positioning in the right pockets of growth.
The right pockets of growth, that is, for example, our Specialty Additives business, which has had an unusually tough last year and is now on the path of recovery back to old strengths, or our resilient and steadily growing Care Solutions business. We continue with this targeted investment into these pockets of growth, like the first world-scale biosurfactants plant, which we inaugurated in May. Biosurfactants will be an additional growth contributor over the next years in an attractive market, with strong sustainability trends and already contracted volumes. In respect of self-helping measures, these are our shorter-term contingency measures, which continue to support our earnings this year. Going ahead, this will be accomplished by the ramp-up of the structural cost savings under our Evonik Tailor Made program, and by our business optimization programs, like the one in animal nutrition you are well familiar with.
We'll continue, ladies and gentlemen, with this strategic approach. Currently, in the still sluggish environment, our full focus is on executing our internal measures and programs like Evonik Tailor Made, like the reorganization of technology and infrastructure, or like our business optimization programs. So let me be very clear, I dare even say crystal clear. This means also that any kind of M&A is currently not, three letters one message, not on our agenda, not for this year, and also not for the next year. Maike, why don't we go into more detail on one of these internal programs, for example, Evonik Tailor Made?
Sure, Christian. This is really a topic very high on our daily agenda these days. We are progressing well, have booked the full provision of EUR 240 million this quarter, and are just about to start the third and last phase of the program. The implementation of the target organizations all across our teams and units. We will have the first savings already this year, and then ramping up over the next three years. At the end of 2025, we will have realized quite significant cumulative savings of EUR 200 million already. And from a cash perspective, the net savings of Tailor Made coming through in the bottom line will be higher than the annual cash out in this, and each of the upcoming three years. This means that the program will be net positive for our free cash flow year by year.
This is a perfect transition of our free cash flow development. Just like in Q1, we have significantly exceeded our prior year's free cash flow in Q2 as well. In total, this is a swing of EUR 500 million in free cash flow in the first six months. However, let me add one little caveat. Our cash generation this year will be more evenly distributed over the individual quarters. Last year, we had a weaker first and a very strong second half of free cash flow. The weak environment and demand situation allowed us to reduce our net working capital quite drastically towards the end of the year. Luckily, the demand in our business has improved, which on the flip side, also means less strong net working capital inflow in the second half of this year.
Nevertheless, on a full year basis, we will again deliver a year-on-year higher free cash flow, with hopefully less stress for the entire organization, leaving us more room to focus on the next optimization and efficiency topics. Jumping to our outlook. First, on Q3 with me, and then on the full year with Christian. The start in Q3 has been quite good, very similar to the trends we have seen across Q2. Order books and volumes are still looking healthy in Smart Materials and Specialty Additives. Let's see if the latter one can deliver another strong quarter like Q2. Typically, there is a bit of seasonality in Specialty Additives over the summer months. What is for sure, Nutrition and Care will be up sequentially, driven by higher volumes in animal nutrition after our shutdown, and the typical H2-weighted seasonality in Health Care. Performance Materials will be down sequentially.
The other line should reflect our ongoing cost savings, with the effect of bonus provisions, is typically difficult to predict at this stage. All in all, Q3 EBITDA is expected to be on the pretty strong Q2 level.
Maike, Maike, Maike, please forgive me to interrupt and to intervene. Ladies and gentlemen, give me a chance to dismantle. Let's keep it like a Chinese secret to you. During my Saturdays during grammar school, I was anything else than a monster in math. But, having said this, I do really believe, Maike, that even from my, let me say, a dry point of view, we will have a tremendous good chance to come close to EUR 1.7 billion of EBITDA already after nine months.
Christian, actually, yeah, that's, that's also my understanding.
Great. Great. And with this, ladies and gentlemen, that should give us some good confidence, good confidence even for our upgraded outlook range. As you know, we expect EBITDA to come out between EUR 1.9 billion and EUR 2.2 billion. And from what we know and from what we see today, the lower end of this range appears more and more unlikely. Third quarter has started well, and currently we are seeing no, definitely no area where business is weakening. But as you know, visibility on the other side beyond August still remains limited, limited. And as you know us, we prefer to be conservative. But even for me, as a conservative, as mentioned, it is difficult to ignore that there's probably some further upside from the midpoint of our new guidance range. Those are nice, I guess.
Those are nice closing remarks for our call so far, and now we are happy to take your questions. Thanks a lot for listening so far.
We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question comes from the line of Sebastian Bray with Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Hello, hello, good morning, and congratulations on the results. They are pretty, pretty good. Could you help me with a question, Christian, on your comments earlier around M&A being off the agenda for the next two years, for 2024 and 2025? Does that also apply to divestments, or is it shorthand for acquisitions? What I mean by that is the potential divestment of Performance Materials or partnering up, and the handful of other non-core assets that Evonik has outside superabsorbents. Is that something which we shouldn't be assuming could happen in 2025? And my second question is on tech and infrastructure. It looks as if there has been some underlying improvement in the infrastructure side of the profitability.
I remember Evonik previously had indicated, oh, correct me if I'm wrong, that these assets might move into their own area, presumably with a move to carving out or selling later down the line. Could you give us an idea of what the EBITDA associated with Evonik's infrastructure assets is, please? Thank you.
Okay, I start with the first question about M&A. Here you have to split up. For sure, we will go ahead strictly, disciplinedly in respect of selling the C4 business. Here, the carve-out is already done, and yes, business has improved numbers and figures over the course of the year. We are here, we are not at all in a hurry. We will continue to observe the market. But to be crystal clear about it. C4 is on the list of our disposal candidates, and that is what we are still going to do. Here we do stay put, here we do remain. In respect of the superabsorbent business, signing is done. We do expect the closing in respect of the coming next weeks.
Then we will have the deconsolidation, and then I guess the deal is done. I have talked about M&A in respect of trying to buy other companies or try to buy portfolio parts of other companies. That is what we will definitely quit on for the next two years. That is not on our agenda. For the next two years, we will exclusively focus on, first, our internal self-helping measures to restructure the company, to create a better company than it is in current days. And second, on investments, tiny and disciplined ones in organic growth. So to be very clear, once again, yes, we move on selling the disposal candidates, and yes, we will quit on doing any M&A in the other respect. With this, I hand over to Maike.
Yes, Sebastian, thank you for the congratulations, and we are also very pleased. With regards to your technology and infrastructure question, on the one hand side, we have mentioned before that, yes, there is a really good transition. It is also partly, it's also partly related to the service dividend that we do not bring into our chemical divisions. However, yes, you're right, the assets, with regards to the assets, we have, altogether, we had EUR 3.2 billion sales in 2023, so 1/3 of this is external, whereas 2/3 are internal sales.
We weren't sure in which way your question was going, but the split, if that was what you wanted to hear, is the technology is 25% and the infrastructure part is 75% going into this Marl, Wesseling, and Antwerp part. As I said, we are not sure if this was what you asked us.
Uh, yes.
Yeah?
Let's pretend that Evonik, in 3-4 years' time, says: Infrastructure is a nice asset. We want to follow in the footsteps of some other firms that have split these assets out.
Okay.
Is the correct to say: We take 75% of the sales of externals, so call it EUR 750 million, and then apply whatever margin we might think be appropriate for a utilities business to it. Is that fair, or?
Well, I think, to be quite clear, this is definitely too early to answer that. On the one-hand side, what we are currently doing is we put the whole infrastructure, technology and infrastructure division on its, on a carve-out, versus we bring parts of it also into our chemical divisions. Let us move forward with that, and, then we can see how the split will be. Also, to be very clear, we have mentioned before that we are still open to really pursue all, possible next steps. So we are not really clear on how to proceed, and, bear with us for another couple of quarters here.
That's helpful. Thank you for taking my questions.
The next question comes from the line of Andreas Heine with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Yes, three questions, if I may. The first is on biosurfactants, so you open up the plant. Can you share with us how you expect the ramp-up to be? You mentioned that you have already take-off agreements. Maybe some words on this. That's the first question. The second, a Smart Materials with very nice progress year-over-year. But if I compare that with margins of peers, those are still quite a bit higher. Is that something what you can keep up with as the economy comes back, or how do you think about this issue? The last one is capital allocation. So you will not go for M&A. You have strong cash generation. Is then the main task to use these free cash to reduce debt, or would you also consider to increase the dividends?
Andreas, thank you very much for the question. I propose Maike takes the first one on biosurfactants and Christian, the next two ones on Smart Materials, margin potential, and capital allocation and business.
Yeah. Good morning, Andreas. Regarding your biosurfactants plant question or market question, so what we see is that there will be, in our expectations, the market will go to a EUR 1 billion biosurfactants market by 2023, on the one hand side, replacement and new applications. Our target is actually that we will have 30% of the market share in 2032. That would mean around EUR 300 million of sales. We see that the current focus is clearly on personal and home care markets. But we also see further applications and further potential in areas that will be addressed from us, agriculture, animal nutrition, coating additives, you name it, you get it.
The new plant in Slovakia is probably full in our expectation, full, it's running on full capacity by 2026, and should then generate a triple-digit million sales and EBITDA margins of 25%. So this is probably, if you do the math, that will hopefully be helpful. And this, with that, I hand over to Christian.
Thanks a lot, and good to hear you. Andreas, first about, Smart Materials. Yes, here we do have good chances to improve the profitability in future. Think about utilization rate, which is a little bit higher than, 70%. So, that translates into additional EBITDA in future terms, if the markets in those businesses, in those respective businesses will be back. So there's more to come. And second, what do we do, what do we have in our own hands? Here, it means that we will activate additional potential, in particular, on the cost side. As you know, here we have different, initiatives in place which will pay off over the course of the incoming months. And then there was a third question, somewhat like an evergreen, about capital allocation, and as you know, I'm in love with evergreens.
Having said this, first, it is that we will stay disciplined. Disciplined in respect of our investments. Here, we will focus on decent and disciplined investments, in organic growth, and focus thereby on our innovational potential. Second, I'm in love, the same holds true for Maike, with our investors. That means we will work our knuckles bloody to make sure, that the already high and attractive dividend level will remain, will stay put. And third, not to forget, and that is Maike's job because she's a math monster, that we will work on an attractive balance sheet.
After all the initiatives, all the measures, all the decisions we have taken, the continuing strong free cash flow generation, after all those major restructuring processes I've mentioned, after all of this, we will definitely have an open eye and an open ear, to listen to the preferences, of our shareholders. I guess that it is what I can convey to you honestly.
Thanks a lot.
The next question comes from the line of Jaideep Pandya with Onfield Research. Please go ahead.
Yes, thanks a lot. My first question is around the Health Care business, actually, or more so Health care and consumer care. I mean, your portfolio is very specialty here. Could you just give us some color of the margin profile? 'Cause we, you know, when we back out the animal nutrition business, at least I get to an average margin of around 15%, 16%, 17%, which is similar to some of the peers which have a slightly higher, you know, chemicals or ethylene-oriented portfolio. So what are we missing here? I mean, do you have a tail of products which you need to prune and improve the quality? So that's that's my first question.
The second question is on the moving parts, if you can be, I know we always demand a lot from you guys, but if you can be generous enough, given the visibility you have today, for key moving parts for 2025, that would be very helpful. And then the last question, really to you, Christian, is sort of tying to Andreas's question, but asking it differently. I mean, your share price hovers around EUR 18-EUR 20, and you're basically doing a lot operationally. I guess the Achilles heel has always been, you know, your anchor shareholder dropping shares at untimely manners. Now that they are 25% of the free float, and your balance sheet is robust, you know, is there a likelihood that you sort of backstop them, and therefore prevent this untimely shares coming to the market? Thanks a lot.
Thank you, Jaideep. I suggest the first one, Maike takes on health and care. Christian, the next two on 2025, and our majority shareholder.
All right, Jaideep, good morning, and regarding your health and care questions, maybe let me shed some light there. On the one hand side, we mentioned before that the Health Care, especially the Health Care business, is very much H2 centered. So we will see better margins and also better sales in the second half of the year. This is a typical seasonality we have in our Health Care business line. Also, what we see and what we have expected is, although we build our lipid plant production in the U.S. It is clear that with our mRNA technology, this is ramping up only in the next couple of, let's say, two to three years.
This was planned like this, and because we are currently not struck by COVID-19 or another pandemic situation, the lipid sales is of course lower. As I said, that was totally expected like this. So we see some. I would call it maybe some also challenges. We are pruning our business line in Health Care currently, but from an expectation perspective, we are perfectly in line. And also, that also holds true for Care Solutions. There is a constant pruning going on. We see now the ramp up of the biosurfactant plant, and so this is why it's becoming bigger and bigger, and we are going more and more in this specialty pocket. And with that, I hope that was helpful. I hand over to Christian.
Thanks a lot, Maike. I guess you are pretty well informed about the RAG, and you are so right. The CEO of the RAG Foundation, the chairman of the RAG Foundation, Bernd Tönjes, has announced a couple of weeks ago, publicly, during the annual press conference of the foundation, that they are committed to hold 25% in Evonik. Having said this, and taking in mind that they have outstanding exchangeables of an amount by, give or take, 20% of Evonik shares, it is a fair assumption that they are not far away from this goal. So in other words, the so often cited, so-called overhang topic is frankly and freely no longer existing. Having said this, you have asked about another detail, if we could buy shares back directly from RAG Foundation.
Here it is, that we are constrained to do so. It is, from a legal point, in other words, close to being impossible, so that is not an opportunity which we do have, at hand. Then there was a third question of yours. It is about our expectations, for 2025. Let's keep it like this. This year will be, I dare saying, even at the conservative, as you know, this year will be a pretty good one for Evonik Industries. And it is now summer 2024, a little bit hard to predict what we will see in 2025. Please take in consideration, we do have to deal with political turmoils.
We do have to deal with economic headwind, with inflation, with the global recession, and so on. But we, sorry, but we, as Evonik, we are, let's say, confident in a robust way. And that is, for example, because of three nameable self-helping factors, self-helping measures we have already in place for the next year. First, we'll have a significant, a significant savings impact from our Evonik Tailor Made program, which will be around an amount of, give or take, EUR 150 million. Second, think about the benefits, the additional benefits from our business restructuring programs here. Please, for example, think about animal nutrition, which will contribute in 2025, additional EUR 100 million.
And then, that is, what we have in mind, in respect of the third point, think about lower energy costs for Evonik Industries, and here we judge it could be an amount of around EUR 50 million, which would come additionally in. So in other words, it might be, it might be that in 2025, there will be a hefty and hefty hailstorm outside, but we doing our, our homework, focusing on our self-helping measures and being invested in the right pockets of growth, we are, in this respect, really keen on, doing better, than this year. So far, our answers to your questions.
Thank you so much.
The next question comes from the line of Chetan Udeshi with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, thanks. You know, I had a very quick question. You know, given the volatility and Christian, you mentioned the visibility is still low. I just wanted to, I was just curious, what is your pulse of where we are in the cycle right now? I mean, you know, you guys play into different end markets. Clearly, you know you've seen ups and downs over the last six quarters. What is your pulse of where we are? I mean, do you think, you know, we found a proper bottom, or do you think, you know, it's still difficult to see beyond August, so you might have more wobbles down the line?
But, no, as you like. Please, ladies first.
I can start with the capacity utilization that gives us some ideas on where we are, Chetan, and then Christian, if you want to add on that, let's do that. So, if I try to answer your question regarding where we are, I think the volume, the capacity utilization of our plants gives us probably a quite good idea on where we are. And we came from this super low volume, super low profitability in 2023, and there we definitely have hit the trough. So, we are coming back. We see that the volumes, it's always difficult because you know that we are in quite a few end markets, but the volumes are really coming back.
It's not where it should be, so what we say, roughly is everything beyond 80% utilization rate is very strong. We are clearly not there yet. In 2023, we had a utilization rate of 70%, so the fixed costs were really hurting us. And so now we are somewhere in between. So we are, in 2024, we see a few percentages, per percentage points, coming up. Let's, well, between, let's say 75%, roughly. And so, we are getting better. I think Christian has mentioned it before, we don't see this big macro improvement yet. We are in the right, we haven't invested in the right pockets. We are pretty tough on, on our cost. But, it's not all green out there. So with that, I hand over to Christian, if you want to add something.
Thanks a lot, Maike, but listening to you and here in this respect, we're on the same page. It's really hard for me to add anything, so I guess that's it.
Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Martin Roediger with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Your guidance, what are the implied parameters for the lower and the higher end of that range? And I'm particularly keen about your volume growth parameters. You mentioned that the low end is very unlikely, although obviously indicating that things massively worsen from what you see at the beginning of Q3. Then secondly, the guidance range was already wide at the beginning of the year, with a spread of EUR 300 million, and that spread is unchanged. Can you explain why you did not reduce the wide spread, knowing that H1 is already in your books and Evonik is a specialty chemical company, which normally means low volatility in earnings and margins? And the third question is on CapEx. You guide for EUR 750 million this year, down from last year.
At your last capital markets day in 2022, you said that the midterm CapEx will be between EUR 900 million and EUR 1 billion annually, partly because of the next generation technologies investments. So do you intend to get back to this corridor? And, should we expect that to happen in the years to come? And, also, is this corridor a average figure so that it eventually could be that in some years you will be above that average range of EUR 900 million- EUR 1 billion? Thank you.
Hi, Martin. Good to have you. I try to tackle your question about our guidance quality. Maybe please forgive me, but first of all, I want to express that we are a little bit, let me say, proud what we've gained already this year, and that means also that that holds also true for increasing our guidance, our guidance range by EUR 200 million. Fair, I guess, to assume, to say that that is somewhat like a strong statement. The midpoint, what we've talked about, was the older guidance and the former guidance of EUR 1.7 billion-EUR 2 billion, so midpoint was EUR 1,850 million. Now it is from EUR 1.9 billion to EUR 2.2 billion. So in other words, EUR 2.05 billion.
As you know, by because of listening to our call, we have already given you some hints that even I, that even we couldn't ignore, that there is some room, that it could come out better. Now about the range. Ah, yeah, my God, please forgive me. You know, is it a broader range? Is it a tighter range? Is it worthwhile sometimes to narrow the, narrow the range, or is it more prudent to lift the range up? You know, it depends. It depends.
And here, I guess it is fair to say that sometimes the ideas about how to deal are somewhat different, but worthwhile, and most important is that we are the ones having lifted up our guidance range, that we are the ones who are in respect of EBITDA development in this year are significantly above our peers, and that we are the ones who have already, during the first days of the year, said, without. We will do so without.
Once more, without any pronounced macro recovery. So, that is what I could give to you about the guidance range. And meeting you next time, maybe during an investors and analyst conference, we could have a beer about it, discussing the question: Is it more clever to lift it up? Is it more clever to tighten or to narrow the guidance range? I guess that is a question, it depends. And with this, to Maike, no?
Yeah. With this to me, and good morning, Martin. I think what is left for me to answer is, on the one hand side, your question regarding volume assumptions for H2, which is pretty much on H1 level. So we see that, the Q4 seasonality, of course, is a little bit always lower. And, I think Christian has mentioned that, we expect pretty much H1, same level like H2, minus the seasonality in Q4, and that also goes for the volumes. Regarding your CapEx, the EUR 350 million-EUR 750 million, and what is the mid-term level?
I think the EUR 750 million is probably on a, on a lower end versus, fortunately, we don't see any effect that we will need to put another EUR 250 million on 2025 to, to reach the EUR 1 billion. So we won't see a EUR 1.25 billion CapEx in the years to come. So this is the reason, on the one hand side, we have mentioned the volume, so we have some time that volumes are, utilization rates are at the 100% level, so we don't need to put additional de-bottlenecking CapEx into, into our assumptions. And also, we have moved into our specialty chemical, a little asset investment, lighter, region. So I think the EUR 900 million-EUR 1 billion lies behind us. And we don't see the EUR 750 million.
I think that was probably on a lower end. If you expect a little higher, EUR 800 million+, then I think you are good to go. I hope that was helpful.
Thank you.
The next and last question comes from the line of Jonathan Chung with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi, morning, everyone. I've got two, please. The first one on Crosslinkers. I think in previous quarters, you flagged that there are some competitive pressure in Crosslinkers. Do you still see that as a weakness in Q2 and in Q3? And then more broadly, in Specialty Additives, based on your current run rate order book, when do you think this division will return to the EUR 900 million EBITDA that you flagged on the slide? And then my second question is around your Tailor Made program, which is largely personnel-driven. I noted that one of your talents recently moved to head up Croda's life science business. Do you feel that Evonik will save cost, but at the expense of your technology competitiveness because your talents are moving to the competitions? Thanks.
Hi, I take the second question about your possible concerns of the impact of Evonik Tailor Made. You know, here we at Evonik, here's a very simple, I would say, and that goes like this: Good employees do sometimes leave, better employees do for sure come. Having said this, Evonik Tailor Made will help, and will therefore open gates, very attractive gates for our, let me say, talents, highly gifted talents, that is somewhat like a booster for their career. And therefore, we do believe, we are convinced that also in this respect, Evonik Tailor Made will benefit. The company will benefit from Evonik Tailor Made, also in enhancing and bettering the careers of our, highly gifted talents. And once again, good men leave, good employees leave, better ones to come, and we do hire. And with this, to Maike.
Yes, Jonathan, and with that, to the Crosslinkers specialty additives question. Yes, Crosslinkers, we have not put it to date too much onto the, yeah, scene, but Crosslinkers still feel competitive pressure. We had some, we call it smart inventory management here in Q2, so it was stronger, put it like this, than expected, despite an additional shutdown at a plant shutdown we had. But it's still not there, where it was, before. So this is, you are totally right, specialty additives is still currently limited to catch up to the historical levels by Crosslinkers. And that's pretty much all I can, I can say is that, yeah, you were, you were totally right in your estimation. And with that, I hand over to the closing remarks. Thank you, Christian.
Thanks a lot, dear Maike. Ladies and gentlemen, it was a great pleasure for us having had you today. For summer vacation, we wish you all the best, and hope to see you soon, in person, during an investors or analysts conference. So take care and all the best.
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