Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us today for our Q3 2021 earnings conference call. With me on the call are Stefan Klebert, our CEO, and Marcus Ketter, our CFO. Stefan will begin today's call with the highlights of this third quarter. Marcus will then cover the business and financial review before Stefan takes over again for the outlook 2021. Afterwards, we open up the call for the Q&A session. As always, I would like to start by drawing your attention to the cautionary language that is included in our safe harbor statement, as in the material that we have distributed today. With that, I will hand over to you, Stefan.
Yeah, thank you very much, Oliver, and good afternoon, everybody. It's my pleasure to welcome you to our conference call today. In Q3, we accelerated profitable growth. Order intake grew organically by almost 30% year-over-year. In the prior quarters, we were often asked when we expect large order intake will pick up again, and as expected, this was now the case in Q3. We received four large orders totaling EUR 167 million. Sales momentum accelerated considerably to an organic growth rate of 6% in Q3 year-over-year after 2.8% in the first half. The 6% organic growth is the strongest quarterly organic growth rate for more than three years, and we are on track to achieve our guided 5%-7% organic sales growth this year.
The same holds for our EBITDA guidance, also driven by the strong sales growth. EBITDA and EBITDA margin improved further in Q3 to EUR 170 million or 14.2%. Moreover, ROCE came in strong at 24.6%, driven by a combination of higher profitability and lower capital employed. Let me step back for a second from the quarterly margin development to put these numbers into a strategic perspective. With a 13% margin in the first nine months, we are now already within the guided margin range of 12.5%-13.5% for next year. This brings me to the key developments in Q3 2021. First, let me start with our Capital Markets Day almost a month ago in London.
It was great to finally meet investors and analysts personally again, and we received great feedback from you for our Mission 26 strategy. Thank you for your positive reviews. We very much appreciate that. Second, with the Novozymes order, we received one of the largest order in the company's history and the largest order in the market segment, New Food so far. This great project is also, from an advertising perspective, highly interesting for us. We are the one-stop shop for customers to cover the entire value chain of New Food projects. Third, we entered the last phase of our portfolio planning program. We signed the contract to sell the refrigeration contracting business in France and closed the disposal of the refrigeration contracting businesses in Italy and Spain.
Fourth, the division Refrigeration Technologies was refocused and rebranded to Heating and Refrigeration Technologies to better reflect the division's leading position as a supplier of sustainable heating and cooling technology under one roof. Last, but certainly not least, sustainability. The organization has done a great job to improve the financial KPIs, as discussed a minute ago. However, the team has also done a fantastic job to improve the sustainability aspects of GEA. As a result, we again received an upgrade by an ESG rating agency. MSCI upgraded us from single to double A in their ESG rating. This makes me very proud and is a great achievement. Let me now elaborate on our share buyback program, which we announced in August. As per end of September, we already spent EUR 40 million of the planned EUR 300 million, which equals about 1 million shares.
The average price for these shares is EUR 39.64. A good investment, given the fact that the share trades now. Current trading EUR 42.66. On Monday, we announced the status as per last Friday. As per October 29, we spent EUR 68 million and bought back 1.7 million shares at an average price of EUR 39.56. With that, I hand over to Marcus, who will take you through the financials of the quarter.
Thank you, Stefan. Also warm welcome from my side. Let's go to the executive summary here. As Stefan has already highlighted the headline numbers of order intake, sales, and EBITDA before restructuring expenses, I will focus on the additional KPIs.
The higher profitability and the further strong year-over-year reduction of net working capital resulted in a higher return on capital e mployed of 24.6%. With this number, we are now at the midpoint of our fiscal year 2021 guidance. On net liquidity, the sustainable reduction of net working capital was the main driver for the increase in net liquidity, including financial leases rising from EUR 299 million- EUR 358 million now. The net working capital to sales ratio is only 7.2%. A significant sequential and year-over-year improvement, which I will explain later in detail. To sum it up, Q3 2021 was another great quarter. Order intake and sales growth are gaining momentum. Profitability increased further, as does capital efficiency. We are well on track to achieve our targets for fiscal year 2021.
Now, let's start with the group performance here. Order intake increased organically by 29.6% year-over-year, and all divisions contributed to this growth positively. Separation and Flow, Liquid and Powder, as well as Food and Healthcare Technologies, grew organically by double-digit rates. As Stefan already highlighted, large order growth has picked up. We received in total four large orders amounting to EUR 167 million compared to a large order volume of just EUR 37 million in last year's Q3. Sales was up by 6% year-over-year on an organic basis, driven by both new machines and service sales. It is worth noting that organic sales growth of new machines was 6.2% year-over-year, which is the strongest growth for more than three years.
EBITDA before restructuring margin reached 14.2% and was driven by gross margin improvement in new machines as well as in the service business. Now, let me continue with the figures for Separation and Flow Technologies. Order intake grew organically by a solid 21.4% year-over-year. All major customer industries grew year-over-year. Sequentially, especially the orders below EUR 1 million, single ticket size developed very well and remained on the high level of the prior quarters. Due to the record-high starting backlog, organic sales development was strong with a growth of 9.2% year-over-year. While new machine sales grew organically by 6.4%, service sales grew even stronger with 13.1% year-over-year.
As the division ended the quarter also with a record backlog, the outlook for the fourth quarter for sales is also favorable. Coming now to EBITDA, which increased strongly from EUR 68 million- EUR 84 million. The EBITDA margin improved by 3% points to 26%. This development was driven by better new machines margin, a higher service share, and better capacity utilization. To sum it up, Q3 2021 was another great quarter for Separation and Flow Technologies. The good top-line momentum resulted in an all-time high backlog, which indicates further top and bottom-line momentum in the following quarters. Let's move on to Liquid and Powder Technologies. Order intake increased organically by an incredible 72.5% year-over-year. The low base from last year just partly explains this growth rate.
The key driver is the significant order flow from the customer industries food, especially New Food with the Novozymes order, as well as beverages and chemical. Stefan mentioned earlier, some of the large orders which we always saw in the pipeline were now placed. Sales developed flattish year-over-year with a slight decline by 0.7% organically. This is not very satisfying and is a result of the weak previous quarters leading to a starting backlog, which was significantly below last year's level. However, the backlog at the quarter end has significantly improved and is now just EUR 100 million below the peak level, which was reached in Q1 2020. This is a good indication for an accelerating sales momentum going forward.
Service sales declined slightly by 1.2% on an organic basis year-over-year, and its sales share declined by 1.4% points to 21.3%. This development is mainly due to internal structural effects, which we have discussed already in prior conference calls. EBITDA before restructuring expenses increased by EUR 13 million- EUR 44 million. However, please note that out of the 30 million improvement about EUR 7 million come from a reimbursement of corporate charges. The remaining improvement was due to better backlog quality and better order execution, leading to another improvement in gross profit. Let me now continue with Food and Healthcare Technologies. Order intake increased organically by 12.4% year-over-year and was driven by significant growth in the food as well as the pharma business.
In the latter customer industry, we booked one large order exceeding EUR 30 million. Sales declined on an organic basis by 1.5% year-over-year. Despite the starting backlog being above prior year's level, organic sales growth remained slightly negative. This is related to requested delivery dates in the starting backlog being less biased towards Q3 2021. Going forward, sales momentum should from now benefit from more favorable delivery dates in the backlog, as well as a higher backlog level. EBITDA before restructuring increased by EUR 6 million year-over-year, resulting in a double-digit margin of 11.5%. Also the first nine months, FHT is a double-digit margin business. The margin currently stands at 10.1%. The favorable margin development in Q3 2021 was driven by a very solid increase in gross margin due to better execution, backlog margin quality, and efficiency measures.
Moving to Farm Technologies. Farm Technologies had four consecutive quarters with double-digit organic order intake growth, partly driven by pre-ordering as some customers were anticipating raw material induced price hikes. Thus, growth is cooling down, but order intake still grew in Q3 2021 by 2.5% organically year-over-year. The trends towards automated equipment is still strong and drives demand. Farm Technologies started the quarter with a record order backlog, which was driving growth. Organic sales grew by 15.9% year-over-year, with new machine sales outperforming service sales. Thus, the drop in service sales is not related to any weakness of the service business itself. EBITDA before restructuring grew by EUR 4 million and margin grew to 14.1%, driven by higher volume, better margin in the new machine business, and efficiency measures.
Finally, let us turn to Heating and Refrigeration Technologies. Order intake increased organically by 8.5% year-over-year. Please note that the decline of the reported figure is due to the disposal of Bock earlier this year. Organic sales increased by 2.8% year-over-year. For the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic, new machine sales are growing again on an organic basis. Service sales grew organically even stronger with 4.3%. In combination with the disposal of Bock, which had a much lower service ratio compared to the Heating and Refrigeration Technologies division now, the division's service sales share is at 43.7%. EBITDA before restructuring margin increased from 10% to 12%, resulting from a higher gross margin in the new machine business.
Now closing the divisional chapter with the overview on slide 16, and as you can see, all five divisions contributed to the EBITDA improvement. On a reported basis, two divisions had lower sales in the quarter. Only at Liquid and Powder Technologies, as well as Heating and Refrigeration Technologies, sales declined. This was due to the lower starting backlog and negative M&A effects. Across all divisions, gross margin improved, and as a result of this, all divisions increased their EBITDA year-over-year, with Separation and Flow Technologies being the strongest driver for group EBITDA. GCC consolidation, EBITDA declined by EUR 15 million, primarily due to the initial consolidation of GEA Group Services, the reimbursement of corporate charges mainly to Liquid and Powder Technologies for last year, and higher bonus provisions. On the far right side of the chart, we deducted the translation FX effect of EUR 1 million.
Excluding this FX effect, as we have defined it in our full year guidance, our EBITDA would have improved by EUR 24 million- EUR 169 million. Let's now continue with net working capital on slide 16. On a year-over-year view, we reduced our net working capital further by EUR 249 million- EUR 333 million, while the respective ratio improved by 5.1% points to only 7.2%. All divisions contributed to that positive trend. The strongest improvements in net working capital were achieved in net contract assets reflecting our improved project management. Furthermore, trade receivables and payables were strong contributors to the net working capital improvement. Inventories improved just slightly. To sum it up, we are satisfied with the development of our net working capital.
For the time being, we confirm our target corridor for net working capital over sales of 8%-10%. This leads us, as always, to another important topic, cash generation. Operating cash flow came to EUR 240 million, which is significantly above last year's figure of EUR 169 million, mostly driven by a higher contribution from net working capital. CapEx-related outflow is EUR 4 million higher than last year and coming to EUR 26 million. Free cash flow increased from EUR 148 million- EUR 214 million. Net cash, including lease liabilities, improved from EUR 203 million- EUR 358 million, driven by a strong net free cash flow of EUR 197 million, which includes EUR 40 million outflow for our share buyback program. Let me now talk about our financial headroom.
On the left, you see our available cash credit lines as well as their respective utilization and maturity structure as per end of September 2021. In August, a EUR 650 million syndicated credit line with a maturity in 2022 was replaced by an equivalent credit facility due in 2026. Also in August, a EUR 200 million syndicated credit facility, which was solely set up due to the uncertainty of the global pandemic, was not prolonged and expired. The EUR 80 million with a maturity in 2021 constitute evergreen credit lines. Continuing now on the right side of the slide where two KPIs weakened, which I would like to explain. The first KPI, which slightly weakened compared to last year's Q3, is the equity position. This is a result of the dividend payments. Last year, dividend payments was split into two single payments.
EUR 76 million were paid in Q2 2020, and EUR 78 million were paid in Q4 2020. This year's dividend was entirely paid in Q2 2021. Thus, the total burden on equity from dividends is actually EUR 231 million since the end of Q3 2020. The second KPI which weakened is the financial headroom. It decreased from EUR 950 million-EUR 750 million and is due to the expiration of the EUR 200 million credit facility in August, which we intentionally did not prolong. All other KPIs in this table have improved compared to last year's Q3, especially the positive trend of our net liquidity, including lease liabilities, has continued, improving by EUR 299 million year-over-year. With that, I hand it back to Stefan.
Thank you very much, Marcus. Let me now come to our confirmed outlook for the fiscal year 2021. After a very good development in the first nine months, we confirm our guidance for all three parameters for full year 2021. We expect organic sales to grow between 5%-7%. EBITDA before restructuring to be within a range of EUR 600 million-EUR 630 million and ROCE to end within a corridor of 23%-26%. We are very well on track regarding EBITDA and ROCE, but keep a very close eye on the upcoming challenges for the execution of our backlog, which might arise from shortages of supplies. Let me share how we react on these challenges. The world has significantly changed in 2021 in almost every regard concerning supply chains.
Fortunately, we mitigated most of the effect so far, and we not just kept our business up and running, but we increased at the same time our profitability. How did we avoid being severely affected by supply chain issues and material cost inflation so far? In most cases, a more proactive supply chain management helped us to prevent shortages. Most importantly, the new processes which we set up during the reorganization of our group structure enabled us to discover developments much earlier and to have a significantly higher degree of flexibility to mitigate these effects. A higher utilization of frame contracts alongside with focusing on larger suppliers and the build-up of safety stock enabled us to avoid any larger disruptions. So far, the disruptions were just minor. Regarding material costs, in many cases, we achieved partly much better prices than before.
Regarding energy costs, literally heating and electricity, we expect a total bill of around EUR 20 million for the full year 2021. We changed the energy procurement process significantly compared to how it was handled in the past. Instead of a local approach, since the beginning of 2021, one agency monitors and negotiates the energy requirements for GEA on a global basis. This enables us to achieve much better prices and to keep the expected energy-related cost increases in full year 2022 to an amount in the low- to mid-teens% in absolute terms. Coming now to logistics. The reasons for the disruptions and the cost inflations for logistics services are manifold. Fortunately, with the changes of the procurement processes, we reduced the logistics bill despite the price increases, thanks to a closer market monitoring in combination with a higher focus on global suppliers.
This begs for the question how we react with our price strategy on this volatile development. Generally, we have now more price rounds compared to a normal year where we increase prices just once a year. As cost inflation became such a hot topic and is visible for everyone, price rounds are more accepted among customers than this would be the case in a normal year. Furthermore, when making an offer to our customers for a certain project, we bake into that offers the spot prices for our suppliers and limit the validity of the quotations to two weeks to reduce our price risk. To summarize it, of course, we cannot guarantee that we will never run into a shortage of some supplies. Those disruptions which we have seen so far were minor.
In the short term, the situation is likely to deteriorate, which increases the risk of further supply chain disruptions. However, as just described, we took according actions to limit the impact of such a scenario. Regarding the cost increases, we can compensate a part of those by increasing internal efficiency on one side, and on the other side, by hiking prices. Our EBITDA guidance of EUR 600 million-EUR 630 million for full year 2021 takes cost increases of up to EUR 25 million into account. All in all, we are well prepared. Finally, this brings me to our roadmap for 2022. The next reporting date will be in about four months with our annual report and our guidance for full year 2022 on March 3, 2022, followed by our annual shareholder meeting at the end of April.
This concludes my presentation, and I hand back to Oliver for the Q&A session.
Yeah. Thank you very much, Stefan and Marcus. With that, Annette, please be so kind and start the Q&A session.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. If you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. To withdraw your question, please press the hash key. Once again, please press star and one if you wish to ask a question. The first question comes from the line of Klas Bergelind from Citi Research. Please ask your question. Your line is now open.
Thank you. Hi, Stefan and Marcus. Klas at Citi. The first one is on the orders and looking into the fourth quarter. The larger orders in the third were of course quite big, so that's a tough comp, but it seems like there should be some momentum on the larger side also into the fourth quarter. We're seeing larger orders coming through across several sectors at the moment in the broader industrials universe. If you could talk about the pipeline, and then on the base orders, history suggests that you're typically up 5%-10% quarter-on-quarter on your seasonality. What I'm trying to get to is that if the EUR 1.3 billion-EUR 1.4 billion level also looks achievable in the fourth quarter. I will start there.
Okay. Thank you very much, Klas. Maybe the first question for the order intake. We always said in the Q1 and Q2 call that the pipeline is quite solid also for the large projects for LPT, and we could see that in the Q3. We could book some of them. We are also still quite optimistic that it can continue like that. We expect for the Q4 now order intake in the range of EUR 1.2 billion-EUR 1.25 billion. In that range it should be. Which brings us clearly to a number which is far above EUR 5 billion at the end of the year. The second part?
Yeah, sorry.
No. Please continue, Klas.
Obviously, I appreciate that. At the same time, you should have some seasonal strength, right, on the base business. Otherwise it would imply quite weak large orders.
No, I would not say so. I mean, as I said, this is what we expect, what our latest expectation is.
Okay.
We see good continuing developments, as I said in all businesses. We have not any fear, let's say, that the positive trend is coming to an end. Everything we see is very optimistic.
Okay, that's good. My second one I have is on the margin development. You typically have a higher margin quarter-on-quarter looking into the fourth, but we obviously have the mix being a bit negative as you invoice more LPT orders. I get that. Unless other costs increase a lot quarter-on-quarter, then I struggle to see why the margin shouldn't be on par at least with the fourth quarter. If that happens, your EBITDA will be above the upper end. Unless you are, as you say, Stefan, a bit cautious on supply chain, logistics, price cost into year-end.
Yes. Hi Klas, this is Marcus. We are staying a bit cautious on the fourth quarter. We understand your reasoning. We are looking at it the same way. If everything goes well, there is some upside, actually, to the margin. On the other hand, we need to see. There are material shortages. So far we were able to mitigate all these, but as I said, we're gonna stay a bit cautious for now on the fourth quarter. As Stefan said, we are optimistic to reach our goals here, definitely.
That makes sense. My final one is on the pre-ordering in PharmTech, which was expected. Is there anywhere else in the group where you saw similar behavior or expect to see similar behavior as you're pushing through more price hikes? I had expected a bit more quarter-on-quarter growth in Food and Healthcare, for example. Was there any pre-ordering there that is now rolling over?
No, not that we can confirm that.
Okay. Thank you.
Good. Thank you, Klas.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Max Yates from Credit Suisse. Please ask your question. Your line is now open.
Hi.
Thank you. It's Max Yates from Credit Suisse. Just my first question was on the order backlog. Obviously it's up 21% versus this time last year. I was just thinking about kind of how much of that backlog is to be delivered in next year and maybe kind of how much confidence does that give you on kind of organic growth sort of staying at high single digit levels. I'm just trying to think about kind of how we can best use that order backlog number and how best we think about organic sales growth in that context going into next year.
Okay. I mean, it's absolutely right. I mean, the strong order backlog makes us quite optimistic for a good growth rate also next year. That's very clear. Normally we see realization times between six to maybe 15 months, which we need on average to execute the backlog. So, we are having a good, let's say, tailwind for sales coming out of the backlog for next year. Yes, but I mean, you know all the supply shortages is of course something which is very difficult to predict.
I mean, if we will get all the electronic devices, all the components which includes the chip, at the right time, and if there would be no shortage, then we would be very optimistic. This is very difficult to predict. However, I mean, given the quite significant improvement of the backlog, we are very optimistic for next year. Guidance will come, of course, like, you know, always in the first quarter.
Okay, understood. Maybe if you could just help us secondly on your hedging on raw materials. I mean, so far, I think you've kind of done a relatively good job of both sort of raising prices and hedging. But I guess just if we think about sort of hedging from here, do your sort of current sort of hedges and costs reflect sort of raw material spot rates? Or are you kind of currently re-hedging your raw materials that we should see a sort of further impact from here?
Maybe just an update on kind of how to think about or what the impact from raw materials might be and whether we should expect an incremental impact next year, as sort of you hedge at new higher levels. Thank you.
Let me clarify. We are hedging only FX. That's what we do. We have not done any hedging on the raw material side or on the steel side. We looked at that and found it for all purposes not very efficient because we're usually not buying tons of steel. We are having tons of steel in the pre-products which we are purchasing there. How we hedge is really that we have contracts, frame contracts in place. And these are then our hedges. Of course, now these frame contracts gonna expire beginning of next year. And then, of course, we will see a price hike there unless the situation on the steel market is actually further or is loosening up.
Yes, we expect to see from the new frame contracts price increases for next year.
Are we talking here about your sort of EUR 400 million sort of raw materials bill, or are we talking about sort of framework agreements within components?
No, we are talking about everything we are buying in steel. As I said, we don't buy raw material steel. There is usually steel which we have in pre-products there. We see there's gonna be contracts expiring.
Okay. I mean, just finally on this, 'cause I think you mentioned kind of back in, back I think it was the Q2 call that you helpfully gave us the sort of EUR 400 million of direct raw materials purchasing that you saw 10% inflation on this. Is there any way you can give us a feeling of kind of what either your steel purchases within that EUR 400 million or the total EUR 400 million, what current spot rates may imply in terms of a headwind for next year? I appreciate you will aim to offset it with pricing, but at least the gross number would be helpful. Thank you.
No, the headwind is not gonna be only in steel. The headwind is gonna be in everything we are purchasing. What we will actually also come up with, when we give the guidance, where we say, how we see the headwinds at that point in time. It's not only we're talking about steel. I mean, the price increases are everywhere, basically. If you buy components, you name it, there are always price increases when you start new contracts and have negotiations. It's really a broader inflationary environment when it comes to the purchasing side. As I said, we're gonna do this with the guidance actually for next year.
Okay. Understood. Thank you very much.
Welcome.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Lucie Carrier from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question. Your line is now open.
Hi. Good afternoon, gentlemen. Thanks for taking my question. I have a couple of follow-up, actually. The first one is on the backlog that you are having. How much of that backlog includes potentially some orders related to entity which are about to be disposed, you know, over the next couple of months or weeks that haven't completed the disposal?
Okay. It's very minor, just in the range of lower two-digit there. So that's what it is. We are nearly through the process of divesting. It's really small companies. So it's negligible.
Okay. You said like low single-digit EUR millions or something. Is that-
No, no, low double digits.
Okay.
Yeah, low double digits.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much. Just in terms of the execution as well of the backlog, will you start to execute the Novozymes contract already from next year, or is that more 2023?
Yeah. We will start next year already.
Large share, or are you able to guide us on that, or not really?
Not really, because it might be too detailed, yeah, that we talk about the single projects here. We will start definitely next year and not at the end of the next year to say so.
Okay, thank you very much. The second follow-up I had was around the supply chain constraint. You very helpfully gave us the impact you expect on EBITDA this year, EUR 25 million. Have you seen actually, 'cause you were talking about the materialization of the backlog, have you seen really already, kind of, you know, the inability to kind of, or potential loss or cancellation or delays of your sales on the back of the supply chain constraint? Just on the EUR 25 million you are expecting for this year on EBITDA, how much was the third quarter or maybe the first nine months of the year?
We clearly did not see any cancellation of order intakes or projects based on supply chain shortage. I have to say it, maybe once again, we so far could cope with the situation very good. Of course, we also see price increases as we said. As I also mentioned before, we also have been able to do various price increases, not only once a year, in some areas even twice a year. That is, let's say, what makes us very optimistic and what we also see in the numbers of the backlog that we don't feel any margin drop, so we can pass over the prices and the increase to our customers.
We also have the situation that we have a good relationship to the most important suppliers that we can so far cope very good with the situation.
In terms of the cost impact you've had year to date or from the EUR 25 million?
Yeah. That, I mean, in six weeks there is Christmas, and then the year is gone. So, you can expect that the vast majority of that is in the books.
I guess I was just trying to figure out, you know, whether the comp base for the first half of next year was going to be particularly demanding if, let's say, in the first half of this year you had relatively small impact. That was, I guess, more-
No, I wouldn't say that. I would-
Just lastly, I wanted to ask about the cash flow dynamic and a little bit around what I would call the financing of the growth. Because it seems that the working capital are very, very low. CapEx all seem to be lower than what it was historically. On the working capital side, is it also because you are getting better down payments than previously, or how do we finance really this growth without working capital and CapEx going forward?
Well, we're not getting better down payments than earlier. We are getting down payments. Perhaps it's better than it was three, four, five years ago, but not better than like in the last two years there. However, we are now getting also the large orders in again. Additionally, actually, when you look at it, we are very tightly managing our net working capital here and especially with accounts receivable. We got in a lot of money, and we're very efficient there, and we are extending our payment terms with the suppliers, and that has been going on for the last approximately nine months.
That's the reason why we are able, including the advanced payments, that we're able now to have a record low for our company at 7.2%.
Okay. I'll go back in the queue.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Sebastian Kuenne from RBC. Please ask your question. Your line is now open.
Yeah. Hi, gentlemen. I have to follow up on this, on the CapEx question, actually. You have a run rate for PP&E investment of about EUR 100 million this year, but a higher depreciation charge, again. To finance your growth vision, let's say, for 2026, I mean, how, what do you think would be the run rate of CapEx that you expect for the next years? That would be my first question.
We said.
Uh-
We said at our Capital Markets Day Mission 26 that on average it's EUR 200 million per year, also considering that we invest a lot in our global SAP project, but also, of course, as you said, for additional growth, EUR 200 million per year.
That will start then from when? From next year, or-
Next year.
When, when-
Next year.
Okay.
That starts from next year.
Okay. Understood. On the again on the EUR 25 million cost increase, I have to ask also the question again. We understand that most of this is in the book, but we are of course interested in what's happening next year. If I look at steel prices, I look at alloy surcharges, this is all still going up. Alloy surcharges up by 50% year-over-year. Can you confirm that your contract, especially the long-term contracts, have clauses that allow you to pass this on or what the scale is of cost that you have to bear next year?
Yeah, that's a good question, and I can confirm that this is the case. I mean, when we do the really large projects, normally we have a lot of sub-suppliers producing also parts for these large projects. It is a very clear rule that we have back-to-back agreements that whenever we take in a large project, we have a calculation based on quotations where we can be sure that we can also get this cost. That is everything which is related with material, with assembly. This is where we are trying to limit our risks.
as I said, we also, of course, are focusing on price increases and due to the fact that, let's say, the whole industry is meanwhile used to understand that price increases are necessary. I would say there might have been times where it was much more difficult to pass on prices than it is maybe today. That does not mean that everything is accepted, but I think we have a certain common understanding in the industry at the moment that prices are picking up and this is what everybody needs to do. Otherwise you get squeezed out. For us it's more, I would say what worries me more is the question of availability of parts which we need, especially all the electronic parts.
This might be a larger concern, I would say, for next year. Do we get all the parts we need, especially when it is about the electronic parts? Price increases, we can handle that, I would say, yeah. . Understood. Thank you. My final question would be on the projects that you have for New Food. I think the Novozymes contract was well communicated. If you take that large contract out, what is New Food at the moment? Are we talking EUR 20 million, EUR 30 million orders, order volume this year? Where do you see this for next year, given the current tender activity or the current discussions that you have with clients? Where do you see that this next year?
Yeah. We have already today, not only Novozymes, we also have other large orders from this New Food. It's above 100, so roughly 120. We also expect that this is growing. We also spoke about that during the capital markets day, that we expect in 2026 that it will be a EUR 400 million business. At the moment, there are many, many activities going on, and it's rather a question that we have to make a decision internally to whom do we quote because GEA is really excellent positioned in that market. We are really the full scope supplier for New Food. I think there is no other company who can provide and deliver what we can deliver.
That's therefore I would say every company, every startup who is really thinking about investing in New Food production lines, they, I would rather say then they need to talk to us and we have to make decisions to whom do we quote and in which customer do we invest the man days or man weeks to make a calculation. This is for us a very interesting and growing market.
Could you answer the question where you see this business next year given the current discussions that you have? I mean, without the Novozymes.
We don't guide any-
Could it double for Novozymes?
We don't guide a specific number for New Food. As I said, at the Capital Markets Day, we disclosed that we expect EUR 120 million and that we expect EUR 400 million in 2026. That's
120 is with Novozymes, just to be clear. The Novozymes is included.
Yeah. It includes Novozymes. Yes, Novozymes.
Excluding Novozymes is about EUR 30 million, right? Roughly.
Might be, might not be.
Okay. Understood.
Nice try.
Thank you very much. Yeah. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Sven Weier from UBS. Please ask your question. Your line is now open.
Yeah, thank you. Good afternoon. I wanted to follow up first with a question on the order intake, because that would have also been a question from my side, what Klaus asked already. Because we know when I look at Q4, you have a very good pipeline. I think the dairy, the brewery market are both further improving. You have a good seasonality, and yet you are guiding orders below the level you had in Q1, Q2. So is there just a kind of a safety discount you make to the pipeline you have because of some macro uncertainties, similar to Q2, Q3? Or, anything else we would have to keep in mind on that guidance? That's the first one. Thank you.
Yeah, yeah. Thank you, Sven, for the question. I think there is nothing which should worry you or concern you. I mean, we have of course always the situation that we have some larger projects in the air, and that is always not sure, will they be booked and can they be booked in December or might it be January? This is maybe the reason why we are here a bit more cautious and you know that we don't wanna promise anything which we cannot deliver.
Okay. That's what I thought already. Thank you for that. Second one is just, I mean, obviously now in Q3, the operating leverage has probably been distorted by a few things and quite impressive, of course. When you look at the backlog that you have in place for next year already, what kind of normalized operating leverage should we see out of that mix? That's the second one. Thank you.
I mean, we are struggling.
I'm struggling a little bit with your question.
With your question.
Yeah.
What could you maybe a bit more precise that we understand it better what you mean?
No, I mean, when I look at the incremental margins you had on the incremental sales in Q3, obviously quite some nice operating leverage you had, but I guess that's not a normalized level. Just thinking around the margin quality of the 2022 backlog and what kind of incremental contribution you should have out of that. Is that the normal kind of, I don't know, 20%-25% or anything?
Yeah.
to keep in mind there?
I think in that area of 25, it should be, yeah.
Okay. Thank you. The last one is just on your just a housekeeping one on your D&A. I think you guide for EUR 200 million, including PPA, but now after 9 months, you're only running at EUR 137 million, so EUR 40 million less than last year. Isn't that EUR 200 million a bit on the high side, and implying too much for the fourth quarter? Should it not be lower than the 200?
I will dep-
You mean the depreciation and amortization, EUR 200 million for the last quarter? Let me just clarify.
Yeah. I think you're guiding EUR 200 million for the entire year, including PPA. I think after nine months you had EUR 137 million, so quite a bit lower than last year. I was just wondering if you really think you get to EUR 200 million for the full year and if Q4-
Okay. I understand your question. Okay. Yeah. Well, probably a bit lower than that, actually. Yeah.
The quarterly run rate we had of around 40-something is that still the same?
Yeah. That's probably more like it. Anyway, between EUR 600 and EUR 680 probably. That's what's gonna come up here.
Okay. Thank you. See you next week.
Thanks.
Thanks.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Daniel Gleim. Please ask your question. Your line is now open.
Yes, good afternoon. Thank you very much for taking my questions. First one is for Marcus on net working capital of 7% in the third quarter. How big is the number of the safety stocks within that 7%?
Well, we try to increase safety stock, quite frankly, but the inventory didn't really move there because it's hard to get it for the production despite getting safety stock additionally on board. We exactly looked at that, and inventory nearly stayed flat, quite frankly. There's no increase of safety stock included in there.
When you spoke about the supply chain shortages that you mitigated so far, we're speaking about the third quarter or as of today?
It's more as of today. I mean, as I said, it's our organization, I would say, is doing a great job in relation management to important suppliers. The impact so far is very limited. However, we have to do some effort that this is the case, and it is very, very unforeseeable in the future. That is something which you might hear from many other companies because a lot of companies and suppliers, especially in the electronic business, they do not even confirm any delivery times anymore. Yeah. Which makes it always difficult to predict.
What we get is used for production.
Very clear. Maybe the last one, Stefan. I heard your comments on the fourth quarter order intake pipeline. I highly appreciate it. Can we take maybe a step back and bigger picture look at 2022 order pipeline? Is there anything that comes to your mind with regards to the sequential development? We had this discussion earlier this year with regards to the pandemic, how this prevents people from coming together and making decisions. When you speak with customers today in general, big picture, has this sequentially improved, or is this the same situation? How do you think about the order pipeline 2022 compared to the order pipeline 2021?
I mean, what we can see that people and all the customers are getting more used to the pandemic. I would say even if numbers are increasing, we are somehow back to normal. I mean, our customers are having hygiene concepts in place and it's, everybody needs to take care and to follow the rules, and you need to have a green pass if you wanna enter. I just came back from Italy, where I was visiting, customers and you always have to show your green pass, how they say.
This is, I would say, despite the numbers are increasing and high, life is a bit more normal, I would say, than it was six or nine months ago when the numbers were at the same size. I see no significant, let's say, change in the behavior. It's not that I would say that we have to expect another pandemic hit in the first quarter or so. This is not what I see despite increasing numbers.
Also with regards to the absolute order level, there was no pull ahead effect into 2021.
No.
Very clear. Thank you both.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Aslan Obadalola from Deutsche Bank. Please ask your question. Your line is now open.
Good afternoon. Actually, a lot of what I've wanted to ask has been asked, just one or two more things. In terms of the sort of concerns and sort of the risks to the logistics and the supply chain side that you are obviously looking at into the fourth quarter and into next year, do you see a sort of greater exposure or greater risk in certain divisions or end markets in terms of your delivery there? Is it sort of evenly across the board? Is it some of your sort of products that are more exposed, and therefore you see more of the certain divisions more at risk than others? My sort of second sort of question is just a bit more on the increase in operating cash flow.
You obviously talked about the improvement with down payments and then also touched upon the sort of other element, about EUR 47 million. If you could just maybe give a bit more color on that'd be great. Thank you very much.
Thank you. I would say the supply chain issues are not different from division to division. However, it is different from the kind of component or product we purchase. There is a clear differentiation. Everything which has to do with electronics in every product where a chip or electronic parts are included, this is really our main concern and this is what you definitely might hear from all other producing company. When it comes to steel or to other mechanical components, it's that we have to cope somehow with a problem or issue of price increases, which we, like I said, I think can manage in passing on these price increases to customers. There is not such a shortage or not that we see a similar situation.
It's to make a long story short again, it's rather focused and completely different depending on the product we purchase, but not on the division.
Okay. I'll go to your second question.
Yes.
In regards to the operating cash flow, right? You were specifically asking here about the others EUR 47 million, right?
Yeah, yeah.
These are accruals which have not been paid out yet, so they are an expense in the EBITDA, and are not paid out yet. What is that? For example, there's bonus accruals, which we are taking, which are not paid out yet, so they're an expense, but non-cash items so far. That's where the increase is coming. There are other accruals, project related, for example, which we anticipate cash out, and they have been taken, but there's no cash out yet. That's why this is added back to the EBITDA. Does that answer your question?
Yeah, it does. Would you say that sort of going forward then that's, is that somewhat anomalous for the quarter? Or is that obviously the bonus accrual is probably, but in terms of the project related ones, is that something there'll be a higher end rate going forward?
We don't have that actually every quarter. Sometimes we have it the other way around, where we pay out accruals, which have already been expensed in prior quarters, and then you see the others actually turning negative here, because you have the cash out of already existing accruals.
Yeah.
If you take a look at the different quarters, that varies grossly.
Okay. No, great. Thank you very much.
Welcome.
Thank you. Stefan Klebert, please continue with your final remarks.
Yes. Okay. Thank you everybody for joining us and for your interest in GEA. I hope that we could show you that GEA is really on a good way and a good development. What are the key takeaways from today's presentation? I would say first, we have the fifth consecutive quarter of strong order intake of and further organic sales growth and margin expansion. That is, I would say, remarkable, and we are also very optimistic that we can continue like that. Secondly, we continued with a strong ROCE improvement, and also we see they have a very good cash flow development. Thirdly, and this is I think also important, we feel comfortable with our outlook for the year 2021, and we clearly confirmed our guidance.
With our Mission 26 in place, which we discussed and explained one month ago in London, we feel very, very prepared to improve the profitability and the growth rate of the company further until the next five years. Yeah, that's why we believe and think GEA is a really good and an interesting investment.
Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect.