Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:HDD)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2023

Feb 8, 2023

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG conference call regarding the publication of the Q3 results of the fiscal year 2022 and 2023. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode. The floor will be open for questions following the presentation. Let me now turn the floor over to your host, Dr. Ludwin Monz, CEO of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen, p lease go ahead.

Ludwin Monz
CEO and Chairman of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

Thank you and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Heidelberg's analyst call on the third quarter results on the fiscal year 2022, 2023. Our first slide shows the structure of today's call. I would like to start by giving you a brief overview of the key figures after nine months of the current fiscal year. My new colleague, Tania von der Goltz, whom we were fortunate enough to be able to recruit recently, she will take you through the quarter's financials more in detail. I will then talk about our commitment to environmental efficiency through our ESG policy and our latest initiatives in this area. We will conclude with our outlook for the current financial year before taking your questions. Okay.

I would like to start with some qualitative highlights of the year to December. Order intake has consistently exceeded sales and remains at a solid level. Profitability also continued to develop very positively. EBITDA, adjusted for one-off items, is significantly higher than last year. In terms of free cash flow, we saw a natural increase in working capital as sales and production volumes increased. In addition, free cash flow was still affected by some inventory built up, which we allowed in order to ensure continuity of production while supply chain conditions really remained challenging. All in all, our December results provide a good basis for achieving our full year target if business remains on track for the remainder of the fourth quarter.

While we are pleased to have performed in line with our forecast for the first nine months, the economic environment in our industry remains unpredictable and challenging, particularly in terms of supply chains. Let's move on and look at the performance in the first nine months of the year. Overall, it has been a solid performance across the board despite continuing macroeconomic challenges. Our key figures clearly illustrate this overall picture. Order intake after nine months was one point eight five nine million, billion, actually, EUR 1.859 billion. This was only 1.5% below the comparable figure for the previous year, which benefited from a trade fair in China.

Order intake in the third quarter was EUR 630 million, a decrease of 2% compared to the same period of last year when we had EUR 643 million. At constant exchange rates, order intake would have been EUR 615 million in the quarter. This fairly stable performance in a difficult market environment is better than the engineering sector as a whole, which really is reassuring sign. Sales were up year-on-year in all three quarters and cumulatively by more than 10% in the nine-month period. On a currency-adjusted basis, organic sales growth for the same period was 6%. This is a commendable top-line performance in a period marked by component shortages and persistent logistics delays. Operating leverage was, therefore, the main driver for the improvement in operating profit.

Adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months was EUR 140 million, up 67% year-on-year. The reported EBITDA margin decreased slightly by 10 basis points, while the adjusted EBITDA margin increased significantly by 270 basis points year-on-year. Net income also increased significantly to EUR 54 million, up 35% from EUR 40 million last year. Much for the overview. I will hand over to my new colleague, Tania von der Goltz, for an introduction of herself and some more details on the recent quarter.

Tania von der Goltz
CFO and Member of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

Thank you, Ludwin. Good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us today. As this is my first analyst call with Heidelberg, I would like to briefly introduce myself. My name is Tania von der Goltz, and I'm the new CFO of Heidelberg since January of this year. Before joining Heidelberg, I've been serving for many years at Fresenius Medical Care, a large cap company listed in the DAX. There, I held global management positions within the finance organization. During my time there, I initiated different global efficiency programs and had a decisive influence on FMC's M&A activities as chair of the global acquisitions and investment committee. I am delighted to now serve Heidelberg, a company with a proud technical tradition.

I want to contribute to building on this tradition and help to write a new chapter. During my first week, I already got a good sense of the great dedication of our employees at Heidelberg and their passion to perform, and I'm very much looking forward to shaping a successful journey of Heidelberg way forward. So much about my person. Let us now turn to order intake, which gives me a cautious optimism. Order intake remained on a very healthy level, despite a nominal decrease of 2% year-over-year to EUR 630 million in the third quarter, due to an unusual strong comparable quarter last year. Adjusted for currency translation effects, orders still have been at EUR 650 million. Unlike the trend in the mechanical engineering sector, this signals the relative stability of our markets.

Our volume showed marginal decrease, pricing initiatives improved incrementally. Regionally, demand was strong in North America and Central Europe, particularly among our packaging customers. Order intake continued to slightly exceed sales, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.03 in Q3 and 1.08 for the first nine months. Moving on to the financial development in Q3. It's worth noting that Heidelberg has seen a significant improvement in operating profitability over the past few quarters. This chart reflects trailing four-quarter averages of operating EBITDA, adjusted for one-offs to filter out quarterly seasonality or volatility. We can see that the adjusted EBITDA has increased from a lower level to a more stable level, primarily as a function of volume leverage achieved on a reduced cost base. Let's take a look at the year-to-date EBITDA bridge.

You can see both reported and adjusted EBITDA of the first nine months went up year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA even more. Last year's nine months reported EBITDA included positive one-off effects of EUR 48 million, which related to property sale in Q3 of EUR 26 million, and the disposal of DOCUFY in Q2 of EUR 22 million. Excluding this effect, adjusted EBITDA totaled EUR 84 million. This year, operating leverage from organic sales growth by 6% boosted operating profit by EUR 78 million. While product contribution margins could be kept stable, thanks to our price increases. Personnel costs benefited from our earlier transformation program, but have now come under pressure again due to general wage inflation. In addition to that, personnel costs were negatively affected by a provision of EUR 50 million for one-time inflation compensation payments, as agreed collectively.

That we consider as a one-off in this bridge. Payment will occur at the end of Q4. Looking further ahead, we expect personnel costs to increase significantly in the coming financial year. In the light of further expected cost increases for materials and energy, we will need to continue raising our prices as well. Let us now take a look at our segment reporting. For Packaging Solutions, order intake after nine months was over 5% above previous year, with the third quarter even showing an increase of 22% year-over-year. Demand continues to steadily grow in this market segment. Regionally, the U.S. and European markets were particularly strong during the recent quarters. Sales in the first nine months picked up even faster, 23% year-over-year, boosting EBITDA in the segment to EUR 73 million.

In the Print Solutions segment, orders of the first nine months were down from almost 6% compared to a strong previous year, marked by a significant rebound following the COVID-19 recession. Sales continued to increase slightly over the first nine months, yet remained below order intake. That gives us comfort for volume growth in the upcoming months. Reported EBITDA was below previous year's level, which included the income of the disposal of DOCUFY entirely. In the Technology Solutions segment, the slowdown in purchases of Wallboxes due to the extended delivery times for electric vehicles, the expiry of subsidy programs in Germany, and the current uncertainty over electricity prices, had a dampening effect on order intake and sales, which were considerably down. Accordingly, EBITDA for this segment turned negative to minus EUR eight million after nine months. Now moving to our balance sheet.

Let me highlight two effects. The first one is that the hike in interest rates had a discounting effect on the valuation of our pension provision, contributing EUR 160 million to our equity. Adding EUR 54 million net income, equity increased to a solid EUR 457 million at the end of last quarter, which represents an equity ratio of 21% now compared to only 7% a year ago. The second development I want to comment is the increase in net working capital. This being the main cause for cash flow dropping substantially below last year's nine months figures. Basically, we saw a natural extension of working capital with increasing order backlog. In addition, we have counteracted the system supply chain issues by increasing the inventory of individual items. As a result, free cash flow came up negative after nine months.

Mostly because of the working capital build up, net financial debt increased slightly year-over-year, but remained on a historically low level, totaling EUR 26 million. The free cash flow after nine months was minus EUR 60 million. We saw an increased contribution from operating activities in line with the previously discussed improvement in operating earnings. You ought to know that operating cash flow still includes payouts of EUR 80 million relating to charges for provisions taken already three years ago for the restructuring program, which is still being implemented. As you can see on the left-hand side of this slide, the change in net working capital has driven this into a negative operating cash flow after nine months. A decrease of net working capital in the comparable turned into an increase in the current year, causing a swing of EUR 159 million.

As a final remark on the cash flow from investing activities, positive figure of EUR 55 million includes EUR 90 million cash in from a disposal of non-operating assets. This actually helped us to partially finance the working capital build up. This concludes this section on the financial performance. I will hand over to Ludwin.

Ludwin Monz
CEO and Chairman of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

Thank you, Tania. Let's take a look at something that is of particular importance to us as a company. Heidelberg is well aware of the importance of the issue of climate change and its impact on our planet and our business. Our company is committed to reducing our carbon footprint and becoming more environmentally sustainable. To do this, we have defined four steps to achieve our goal of being carbon neutral by 2030. First step is to further improve energy efficiency at all our manufacturing and distribution sites. This includes implementing energy saving technologies and processes, as well as optimizing our production infrastructure to use resources more efficiently. Our efforts are already making a difference. Heidelberg has reduced its energy consumption by 16% since 2019. The second step is even more important. It involves generating renewable energy in our own facilities.

This includes, for example, the installation of solar panels. By producing our own renewable energy, we are reducing our dependence on fossil fuels and contributing to a more sustainable energy mix. In a third step, we also aim to increase the amount of certified green energy from renewable sources, such as wind or solar power that we purchase from external sources. Finally, as a fourth step, we aim to offset unavoidable emissions by purchasing carbon credits. In summary, our climate strategy is designed to address the challenges of climate change and contributes to a more sustainable future. We believe that by implementing these four pillars, we can significantly reduce our carbon footprint and create value both for the environment and also for our investors.

In addition to our ambition to reduce Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions I just talked about through our climate strategy, Heidelberg has launched a campaign to reduce Scope 3 emissions and increase energy efficiency in printing plants, which are our customers. Scope 3 emissions account for the vast majority of our total emissions and therefore represent the biggest lever for us to tackle. Our campaign provides information and advice from experts on how to optimize energy consumption while reducing costs. Heidelberg has a proven track record in improving the energy efficiency of customers' operations. The latest Speedmaster, which is our printing machine, the latest model, for example, uses 40%, 40% less energy than our 1990 model.

This has been achieved through innovations and improvements throughout the system, including the ability to optimize the utilization of the equipment. The recently launched XL 106, which is the latest model of our offset printing machine. This offers an increase of 18% in printing speed. Printing at top speed reduces energy consumption per sheet by spreading the same and stable basic energy demand over a higher output per hour. This not only reduces emissions, but also saves money for our customers. As you can see, the company's ESG strategy reflects its commitment to creating long-term value for all stakeholders while making a positive impact on society and the environment. Yeah. I hope I've given you a good overview on our sustainability initiatives, now would like to talk about the outlook.

Our guidance for the current fiscal year, we would like to confirm. We remain cautious due to economic uncertainties and ongoing supply chain disruptions that could have an impact on sales volumes in the final and fourth quarter of the year. We also expect the pressure on our margins from rising costs to remain high in the coming quarters. In contrast to easing of consumer price inflation, we do not expect a similar trend in producer prices in the near future. Our focus will therefore be on securing our parts supply in the final quarter, on supporting gross margins through our pricing initiatives, and finally, a net working capital management. On this basis, we are confident of achieving our guidance of EUR 2.3 billion revenue and EBITDA margin above 8% and a modest year-on-year increase in the net income.

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the presentation, of our quarterly results, and we now would like to take your questions. I hand back to the operator to explain the procedure.

Operator

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press nine and the star key on your telephone keypad. In case you wish to cancel your question, press nine and the star key again. The first question comes from Stefan Augustin, please go ahead.

Stefan Augustin
Analyst, Warburg Research

Yes. Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you very much for taking the question. First of all, thank you very much for providing a detailed quarterly overview in the backup numbers. For the first question, I would like to refer to that one. I think on slide 21. It is actually on the order intake. If I look in the order intake from the different divisions, I know that the Packaging Solutions had a very nice uptick in the third quarter, actually propelling it to a new height.

Could you elaborate a little bit on that one, possibly in connection with the regional trends, as you mentioned, that EMEA and especially U.S. has been strong in that quarter, and usually we would expect the U.S. to cool a little bit by now? Is that in connection maybe with the subscription model rollout? Can you add on an update on that one, how it is progressing in the U.S.? Thank you.

Ludwin Monz
CEO and Chairman of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

Yeah. Thank you, Mr. Augustin. Thank you for your questions. Let me just start on that regarding the order intake in packaging, which is a really nice development. I really believe this is a long-term trend that we are seeing. The packaging segment has been growing for long, and we now benefit from that growth. In terms of regional split, we see that this growth mainly comes from Central Europe and North America. If you take North America, for example, that's a region where packaging really plays a dominant role in printing. We see clear trends that for sustainability reasons, paper is a preferred material in packaging, more preferred also in the future, that's one of the drivers in the U.S.

Yeah, it just the market segment of Packaging Solutions is growing. Same is true in Europe, where we also see good growth. I mean, you know, the fundamental drivers of this growth. It's simply a higher consumption, you know, and consumption leads to more demand for packaging. Yeah, that's a good development, and we can benefit from that. Regarding subscription, I can say that this does not play a role here in that regard. Our accounting policy regarding subscription is simply such that we only book the revenue when it happens in subscription. Yeah. There are no big one-time effects when we make a subscription deal.

That might also explain why this cannot and is not the reason behind this. Subscription in general, I believe last time when we spoke, we were talking that we are still in the final stage of signing the contract with Munich Re. This has been completed in the meantime. The contract is in place and we are now rolling out the first customers on that. That's going well and, but it's not in the numbers yet, right? That's gonna happen soon. Well underway and I just two weeks ago, I believe I talked to a customer who is on subscription.

This is a good model for some customers, they really like it, because as you know, we've coupled just the supply of the availability of equipment and supply with consumer goods. We coupled that with consultancy and support regarding productivity. That's really highly appreciated and helps a lot to sell the subscription model.

Stefan Augustin
Analyst, Warburg Research

Okay. Just a follow-up maybe then here. There is not an unusual, let's say, a large order in that Q3 development in packaging or so?

Ludwin Monz
CEO and Chairman of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

Correct.

Stefan Augustin
Analyst, Warburg Research

It's just broad-based.

Ludwin Monz
CEO and Chairman of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

Exactly. I mean, I should say in fairness, as this growth comes from the US, FX effects play a role as well. Yeah. Because this, if you like this revenue is magnified because it's US dollar business and that's, of course, some percentage points more in euros. But that's a small effect. Overall, good development in the US and the exchange rate helps us a little bit.

Stefan Augustin
Analyst, Warburg Research

Okay. I would have a second question before I go back into the queue for the rest then. The next one would be actually, you stressed a little bit the supply chain risk here. We hear from a lot of sides, the supply chain is actually expected to improve somewhat during 2023. Can you elaborate what has maybe changed on your perceptions here? What are the worst, let's say, items to take care of? Does the reduction of the trade payables, is that in connection with, let's say your statement of an increasing supply chain constraints so that your suppliers demanded an earlier payment, for example?

Ludwin Monz
CEO and Chairman of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

No, no. I think that the latter is not the case. There's no significant change in that. Overall, here's the situation. We still see a shortage when it comes to electronics components. On the electronic side, is the biggest shortage that we see. Heidelberg can deal with that reasonably well in most cases as, you know, we can replace components, look for alternatives, that creates extra effort, but it can be managed somehow in most cases. That is actually what we continue to experience. I would not, by the way, I would not say that the situation has worsened. It's about what we have seen now for the last two years or so, or even a bit more.

We continue this to go on. That's on the supply side. When it comes to the cost side or the price side, if you like, the prices of the components we purchase, we have already seen some significant price increase, and we expect that price increase to continue. Yeah. We expect further increases also in the upcoming year. That's the other side of the coin. It's both. Yeah, it's still a shortage which might improve, and we all hope for that. It's that price aspect as well.

Stefan Augustin
Analyst, Warburg Research

Thank you very much. I will go back into the queue for the rest of the questions.

Ludwin Monz
CEO and Chairman of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Peter Rothenaicher, p lease go ahead. Yes, hello. This is from the

Peter Rothenaicher
Analyst, Baader Bank

Dr. Monz. Firstly, a question on China. This has been a weak spot in the last quarter. Now I think we see a improvement in the Chinese environment. Do you already experience now bigger demand in the fourth quarter? Or do you think China will remain weaker development also for this and the next quarter?

Ludwin Monz
CEO and Chairman of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

Yeah, this and the next quarter is really short term. Look, what happened in China was that the first, at least, two, probably even three quarters, there were lockdowns, and the market was simply not accessible for our people. As a result, you know, order intake was slow. Yeah. That's simply the situation.

Right now we are still shipping the orders which we received half a year ago. The improvement of the situation in China obviously does not have any effect on revenue yet. That takes another half year or so until we see that. We certainly hope for an improvement of the order intake. It's too early to tell. Yeah. I mean, the COVID-19 just had its maximum, I believe, at Chinese New Year, and that's just over a few days, so it's really too early to tell. That's our clear expectation. I just yesterday I was in contact with some Chinese people, and they are really enthusiastic about the, call it new freedom or whatever the changed situation.

I'm confident that next fiscal year will be really a new game. Yeah. It's difficult to quantify that. Working assumption would certainly be that it comes back to the pre-crisis level, but we don't know.

Peter Rothenaicher
Analyst, Baader Bank

On Technology Solutions. As the situation is clearly worse than we might have expected one year ago. What is your strategy in here in this area? Do you have to cut capacities? What is your expectations regarding the charging solutions? Do we have to cope also with let's say, significant losses in the upcoming quarters then?

Ludwin Monz
CEO and Chairman of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

Yeah. I mean, there are different aspects I would like to talk about. First of all, a high level view on that business. I really believe that the charging business is in a highly attractive market because there is a fundamental mega trend which drives this market, and that is the, I should say the growth of electro mobility. It's from my point of view, it's just a matter of time until that market comes back. We all know why the market collapsed. It collapsed because the subsidies which were heavy on charging technology and now just recently also the subsidies for electric vehicles were simply discontinued. As a result, you know, we saw the market collapse and also our business.

Again, I consider this a short-term effect. Longer term, I believe that's an interesting market. It's a future market with interesting perspectives. Now, nevertheless, you're right that we cannot live today from revenues which we will make in a few quarters. We have to make our money today. This is my second perspective I would like to give. What we have been working on, and I believe we also talked about this in the last call, is two things. First of all, we have strengthened and extended our product portfolio.

We now can address more segments of this market, multifamily homes, we have a public charging station, we have a mobile charger in the meantime. It's much more than what we used to have in the past. I believe that this will help latest once the market is back. Now, in the meantime, I hope that we can benefit from a regional expansion, and that's the second lever we are using. We are currently building up sales and distribution in other European countries, for example, France, Spain, Italy, UK, northern countries. That's another opportunity. This is why I hope that, you know, this business will stabilize and then start to grow again. The fundamental trends are positive.

This is why I hate to cut this now because I'm convinced that it'll come back. As long as we just have moderate losses, I think we should live with that.

Peter Rothenaicher
Analyst, Baader Bank

regarding your statement on, on pricing. So, um, there is a statement that, uh, the cost increases could be largely compensated by the implemented price increases. To my understanding, I think, uh, not all of the machines shipped, um, have already the improved, uh, pricing situation. So, uh, is it fair to assume that this will improve and also in the fourth quarter, uh, of this fiscal year, and, uh, might this be then a driver also for, uh, profitability

Ludwin Monz
CEO and Chairman of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

Yeah. I believe in general, that's what's gonna happen. Look, the mechanics is this. In the current year, we had two price increases already, and we have announced two more price increases in the next year, right? You could say every six months there's a increase of list prices. That was the case this year. That will be the case next year. Whenever we close a deal, the list price that is the current one is actually the basis for the deal. However, it usually takes half a year between the closing of a deal and the shipment. Shipment date is basically the revenue date.

In other words, the machines that we ship today and the revenue that we book today is based on prices that we had half a year ago.

Peter Rothenaicher
Analyst, Baader Bank

Mm.

Ludwin Monz
CEO and Chairman of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

This explains a little bit why, you know, there's this time gap. This explains a little bit why we are confident that situation will improve further. I mean, of course, at the same time prices increase, right? We, you know, the price level grows, and we can already predict for the next half year because we have made the bookings, so we already know what's gonna happen. On the negative side, we will have cost increases over the next half year, which will unfortunately then counterbalance a little bit that improve of the margins. That is what it is, yeah? This is why we are so confident that we will that the prices will increase further, yeah?

There's a systematic behind that and also some predictability. The unknown is how much cost will increase. I mean, what we know is personnel costs. That is public and announced because it was negotiated between the unions, at least for Germany, between the unions and the company. We know that number. But everything else like material and energy is kind of unknown.

Peter Rothenaicher
Analyst, Baader Bank

Okay. With regard to the pricing, is it possible to mention the decline in volume? You mentioned that FX had a positive effect, pricing had a positive effect. If I look purely on volume, how strong would have been the decline in the third quarter in order intake?

Ludwin Monz
CEO and Chairman of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

We've done actually the analysis on a nine-month period, I don't know exactly the third quarter standalone. Overall, look, the situation is if you look at the, Tania actually talked about that. If you look at the mechanical engineering sector in general, we see a decline. The situation at Heidelberg is different. We see, I would say, a stable situation, which means stagnation to some extent, or we see slight growth. We do not see a decline when it comes to volume in terms of number of machines also, yeah? That's a good situation, right? The demand is stable, that's for sure, we do not see a decline on demand.

What helps us or has helped us in the first nine months is FX, so exchange rates, but also what was it? FX. In terms of orders. Edward? In terms of orders. Yeah. That's EUR 70 million. Which was EUR 70 million. Yeah, that helped us and I believe that overall we are in a good situation. Yeah.

Peter Rothenaicher
Analyst, Baader Bank

Okay. The last point is regarding to tax expenses. Your tax ratio was clearly lower than we have seen in previous years now. Has this also to do with less favorable business in China? I think here there the tax ratio is particularly high.

Ludwin Monz
CEO and Chairman of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

Now I need the finance people, but I can tell you.

Tania von der Goltz
CFO and Member of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

Yes, you already hinted into the right direction. This is due to our Chinese business and the withholding tax on dividends distributed.

Peter Rothenaicher
Analyst, Baader Bank

Okay. Thank you. I go back to the queue.

Ludwin Monz
CEO and Chairman of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

Thank you.

Operator

We have a follow-up question from Stefan Augustin. Please go ahead.

Stefan Augustin
Analyst, Warburg Research

Okay. Thank you. I would follow with the cash flow. The latest projection was that we will be somewhere in the mid double digits as a target for 2022, the running fiscal year. Is that still the same? How much restructuring cash out is still to come in Q4, if any? How much, let's say, a cash in from future or past asset sales do we need to expect in Q4?

Tania von der Goltz
CFO and Member of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

Okay, thank you for this question. As you hinted, we expect the free cash flow to come out positive by the end of the fiscal year 2022, 2023 in a lower to mid double-digit range. We expect somewhat about EUR eight million additional cash out for restructuring. Besides this, we don't expect further one times.

Stefan Augustin
Analyst, Warburg Research

Mm-hmm. That's it. I mean, the asset sales, basically are done, right? There's nothing to expect further.

Tania von der Goltz
CFO and Member of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

Basically cash in from an asset sale. I just getting a hint. For the second tranche of the site in Wiesloch we sold, we expect a cash in of EUR 30 million. We could also mention the aforementioned inflation compensation, you may also consider as a one-timer totaling EUR 50 million.

Stefan Augustin
Analyst, Warburg Research

That will be also then in Q four, right?

Tania von der Goltz
CFO and Member of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

Yes.

Stefan Augustin
Analyst, Warburg Research

The total EUR 50.

Tania von der Goltz
CFO and Member of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

Yeah. This is already considered in the guidance, to the fiscal year 2022, 2023, I've given in the first statement.

Stefan Augustin
Analyst, Warburg Research

Thank you very much. Then, Ms. von der Goltz, directly to you, what have been your first impressions? How do you look after these few days now on board, on Heidelberg and the situation?

Tania von der Goltz
CFO and Member of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

I must really say it's a great company and great people. I have been really highly impressed by their passion and their attitude, and I could feel it really from the first day on. The team is highly skilled and dedicated to deliver the best product and services to our customers. I'm also really impressed by the company's commitment to innovation and its drive to stay ahead of the competition. I believe that this combination is really a strong heritage and a forward-looking approach, which will serve the company well in the future. I'm confident that we can build upon these exceptional skills and will hopefully be able to write and shape a new chapter of Heidelberg's tradition.

Stefan Augustin
Analyst, Warburg Research

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

We have another question. It comes from Peter Rothenaicher. Please go ahead.

Peter Rothenaicher
Analyst, Baader Bank

Yes. Hello. One question regarding the overall environment. I'm following Heidelberg since very long time and there was always a problem, the big or the strong link towards the overall economic situation. If you have seen a downturn in economy, then the order intake for Heidelberg was down massively. So far, I think you're keeping up quite well, but what is your experience from talks with customers? Are they still able and willing to invest also in this quite insecure situation? Do you feel comfortable then also looking into the fiscal year 2022, 2023, 2024, that order intake will remain on that level?

Do you see here, yeah, significant risks for your business and have also the risks that said order intake will decline?

Ludwin Monz
CEO and Chairman of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

Yeah. Rothenaicher, this is an interesting question, and that's something actually which has been on my mind since I joined Heidelberg almost a year ago. We are following actually the economy and the market, and that's not surprising as Heidelberg has a very high market share, right? If you have a high market share, you follow the development of the market in first hand. The question is, what can we do about it, and how can we reduce that dependence? I believe there are a couple of things. One certainly is, and we've worked on that, and we already talked about it. We need to complement the equipment business with recurring business, yeah? Consumables are really key to that. We've just started.

Even if you look at the last years, the percentage of recurring revenue really has grown substantially. Currently, I believe it's at 14%, and we were coming from 4%, maybe five, six years ago. Don't remember exactly. A good improvement and this is a key part of our strategy. More recurring revenue to become less dependent on the investment cycles of the capital goods. That's clearly one thing. The other is our resilience. Because if the break-even point is very high, of course, if there's only small decline, you see that in the operating result immediately.

Improving also our cost structure is really key of what we've been doing, and I've been discussing that with Tania now for the last couple of weeks and that's clearly something we will look into. I believe that these are the things we can do to reduce a little bit that vulnerability to economic cycles. When it comes to customers, and you asked about the confidence of customers. Well, I've talked to just the last month I was traveling in Europe and also not only Germany, but other countries as well. I could not feel a so some hesitance or some skepticism about the future. People are positive.

People, they believe in the market and their abilities, and so I believe there is, at least I could not sense some negative dynamics. As I told you, we don't see it in the numbers, right? The demand is stable, and that gives us the confidence also for the next fiscal year, yeah? We do not expect a significant decline of the market and following the market of our business in next fiscal year. We'll give a guidance, obviously, not now, but only after the full year.

Peter Rothenaicher
Analyst, Baader Bank

Thank you very much. Very helpful.

Operator

Okay. We didn't receive any questions in the meantime. I will leave the lines open for a couple more seconds. Nine star for your question. Okay, there seem to be no further questions. Let me hand back over to your host for some closing remarks.

Ludwin Monz
CEO and Chairman of the Management Board, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen

ladies and gentlemen, I would like to thank you for your interest in Heidelberg. We will be back after the full year, presenting our full year results. Thank you very much and stay safe. Talk to you next time. Bye-bye.

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