Good afternoon, good morning, to all of you listening to our H1 conference call. We are in the room together with Dominik and René and Ozan. Look forward to your questions later, but before we come to the questions, we have some prepared remarks that we wanna make. Over to you, Dominik.
Very good. Hello also from my side. Great that you are joining. Thanks so much for that. I think we've shared with you the presentation, so I'll go through that fairly quickly 'cause as you know, we should focus on your questions. I'm sure you have some. For us, you know, it was all about, as we said now for many quarters, it was all about getting the pricing moving. There was an underlying assumption also of many of you that the company would not have the ability to move the top line, especially on the pricing side. I think we have delivered on that.
Strong pricing drives the top-line growth and stabilizes the results, +10% on the revenue side, just -6% on EBITDA and RCO. The key point, and we'll go into that detail, is the price over cost, and I'll show you the details later. Key message is has clearly stabilized and turned even positive in the month of June. We are in a quarter-over-quarter race, I get it, but we are also in there for the midterm and the long term, and that's why, going back to our five promises from the capital market, it is utterly important for us to hold the line on that one. Promise number three is focused on the 400 kg, the most ambitious target in the industry by far.
That's why it was also important for us to get traction even before the CCUS projects kicking in in 2024 already. Here we are, another 2.5% down versus a good performance already prior year. We really do see traction in each of the countries. By the way, this is not only delivered from mature markets, it is also delivered from emerging markets. Very important to understand. We have already shared with you the renewal of the syndicated loan. Maybe René can say something to that later on when we go through the financial side. We confirmed the outlook on the top line, a strong revenue growth, and we slightly adjusted it on the EBITDA and RCO piece.
I'm sure you will have some questions around that. We go to a slight decrease in 2022 for the full year, and it's really given the recent days and weeks of energy cost volatility, especially in Europe. I think it's prudent to say, guys, this is something we have to flag to the capital market. That is something we try our very best to manage, but this volatility is so high that I think it's fair to be cautious. I say also very clearly our internal EBIT target remains to stay on the old guidance, but that's just for your reference. Page four shows the Q2 results. Double-digit % growth on the top line, more than EUR 5.5 billion.
The operating EBITDA and the operating EBIT is slightly down from a record last year, agreed, but we were also going against a very strong comparison last year. H1 2021 just to remind you, was the best by far in the company's history. If you put it into a longer-term perspective, we are clearly ahead in EBITDA and EBIT both versus 2020. Okay, there was a little bit of corona, but even against 2019 by a substantial way. Margin a little bit under pressure, clear with that, energy cost rise, but overall, I think okay. If you then go to the development per region, you see that the top line has really moved in Western Southern Europe and NICA as well as in Africa.
I think those two, three areas have really done an excellent job on the top line, double-digit percentage growth. North America, a little bit slower, but also plus 6%, and Asia Pacific also a little bit slower, plus 8%. If you go to the next page, you see that the EBITDA development is stellar, I say that, in WSE. I think that's the EBITDA development per basically per area. You have that in the details, I think there. Let's go to page seven then. Let's go, yeah. Let's go to page seven first, sorry. You see here the like for like, the like for like comparison. You see that there is a significant currency impact.
You also see that there is a significant scope impact, that's mainly the West Coast in the U.S. You see that the H1 operating EBITDA was clearly negative in the price over cost. That's what I was alluding to earlier. That's very much driven by a not so good H1, sorry, Q1, but Q2 was again much better, you see here on the next page. If, Ozan, maybe you flip back and forth a little bit because it's interesting to see the delta. While in H1 it was a smaller volume impact, but a massive price over cost impact to the negative.
You see then in the Q2, this has clearly turned around a little bit, higher on the volume side, but almost fully closing the gap on price over cost. I think that's really going in the right direction in that respect. I think let's go to the next page. We see a little bit the development on the Commercial Excellence Program. That's what I was alluding to earlier. We are coming out of four very negative quarters, Q2 last year, Q3 last year, Q4 last year and Q1 this year with very negative price over cost development. You see to the right how we turned this around.
I mean, there were questions from some of you in the Q3 call last year, but also in the Q1 call this year, you know, when is this gonna stay positive? We said, "Okay, hopefully in the second half." We've managed to turn this positive already in June and almost positive for the full quarter of Q2. I internally said, "Thank you very much. Great performance together with our customers." I think the team internally did an excellent job. That's obviously on the back of steep price increases. You see on the left a good trajectory. The trend is absolutely moving in the right direction.
That then also leads to the fact, while we announced last year EUR 350 million commercial contribution to the Commercial Excellence Program, we have upgraded this to EUR 2 billion. Out of that, we have already June year to date secured EUR 800 million. We are very confident that we get to those two billion until year-end. Maybe, René, you wanna continue?
Yeah, thanks, Dominik. Hello, everyone, as from my side. Revenue and EBITDA, I think Dominik has just discussed. If you look then at clean earnings per share, and that means without our additional ordinary results, which includes impairments, book gains, you name it, we go up by +3%, even though with an EBITDA which is by 12% like-for-like lower, and we come to the details below RCO in the next slide. Net debt reduction is favorable by -EUR 662 million, and our leverage now per June is 1.85. We come to the cash flow net debt as well in a few seconds. We've distributed, let's say, EUR 1.3 billion to the shareholders.
This is obviously the split. There is a normal dividend, the dividend to minorities and the share buyback, where you all know we finished the second tranche, mid of July. If we go to the next slide, here is the free cash flow last 12 months and then the net debt development. If we talk about the free cash flow, you see here the different components. We had the tax payment and interest payment, so that's let's say, as expected. Interest payments are very low compared to prior year as well. There you see our efforts to reduce the interest charges here as well. Taxes is obviously a normal tax payment.
Change in working capital is roughly EUR 375 million, which purely comes from inventory. As you know, we wanted to obviously have stable supply to the customers. We need to run the operations in this difficult environment regarding all the supply chain issues. We wanted not to run out. Coal, petcoke, slag, you all know this comes with massive cost increases, so our working capital need for inventory is the main difference here. CapEx net is EUR 1.35 billion, and we come to that later in our guidance. We keep our guidance clearly below 1.2.
Yeah, this is just the timing of the CapEx, which we then clearly reduce in the second half to get to the guidance, and we are very comfortable that we reach that. Other is provision outflows and currency effects. Free cash flows in EUR 1,067, which is a cash conversion of 29%. As you know, the working capital will reduce then in the second half and our CapEx as well. The RCOBD will as well go up on a reported basis, so we will increase that number clearly. Net debt development, as I said, a reduction of EUR 662.
That's a function of free cash flow, net M&A, which is the U.S. West disposal, and we acquired Command Alkon and CBI there in Ghana, the calcined clay project this year. Then the EUR 1.3 billion, let's say, share buyback and dividend combined. Then on the currency side as well, EUR 69 million. Here we are at EUR 6.8 billion per June. If we go to the next slide, our P&L. If we go down below RCO, the additional ordinary result, you see there's a minus EUR 210 million delta versus last year. Last year was influenced by the, let's say, impairment reversal due to our U.S. West disposal, which was roughly EUR 130 million.
Then this year we had an asset impairment of our Russian business due to the massive increase of the weighted average cost of capital, which led to an impairment of roughly EUR 87 million for our Russian business. Financial result is plus EUR 63 million, that is a function of different things. Obviously a lower interest charge regarding our bonds. Yeah, you know, we paid bonds back and reduced our net debt. That's one function. Then the second one is a discounting of provisions gave us a nice positive effect due to the high interest rates. Income tax is plus EUR 86 million. Yeah, that's a function of, you see, lower operational result. Our effective tax rate is stable compared to last year.
That is driven by our lower operational results. You see we come to a group share of profit of EUR 542. The negative things, clearly the delta and AOR, but if you take that out, earnings per share adjusted are going up by EUR 0.09, which is 3%. Now, Dominik, I hand over to you to talk about the CO2 agenda.
Yeah, maybe, guys, I didn't wanna mean to skip over page five. Maybe, René, you go back to page five to talk a little bit about the area split, huh? Revenue development was okay. In North America, and then the operating EBITDA slightly down. We are ambitious guys, you know, the sky is always the limit, but the volume development was stable, pricing was good and is picking up further up. I think that's the trend in the US and Canada is moving absolutely in the right direction. As we indicated to you earlier, we have always the balancing act for us importing in the Northeast.
It's a balancing act between freight rates on imports, cost of clinker and everything. We take the right business decision, and then we had also some labor disruption issues. As I said, North America from our perspective, going against a very strong comp last year. We are very positive for the second half in North America. Europe, as I said earlier, from my perspective, very well done. Results even up against the record results last year in the quarter, +8%. I think both VSA and also NICA, although the result is coming down slightly, I'm not getting too hung up about that. They are stabilizing on a very high level.
Both EU West and Southern Europe and NICA really are driven by very convincing pricing performance, have done an excellent job. Asia-Pacific, I think, the emerging markets in general have a little bit of a slower comeback from Corona and also obviously now the energy cost inflation, that typically takes them a quarter or two more than the developing countries. We do see clear stabilization in Asia-Pacific, so we are quite positive for the second half. The first half was obviously difficult in Indonesia because of the big coal cost impact. You know that from the past discussions. Same is true for India. Bangladesh is a little bit struggling in the first half, and Thailand is now picking up.
It's also interesting, Thailand is the more developed country already, so you see them coming out of the water better. Talking about water, that's the story about Australia. Although we don't like to talk about the weather, I think it's fair to the Australian team. Records, and René was in Australia for quite a few years. Record flooding three times, I think even, on the East Coast in Australia. The underlying business in Australia is strong, so we are also in Australia positive for the second half. Last but not least, Africa.
I think a very, very difficult emerging market situation, but the team has done an excellent job in balancing the input cost increase the availability of clinker and freight and then working also on the pricing side. West Africa a little bit softer than East Africa. I think that's fair to say. Northern Sahara moving in the right direction. Egypt just to say that also has clearly stabilized and is well way back in positive territory. So that was the only country we were losing money in the past. You know that has clearly come out of the water and is looking strong. Last but not least, to finish on the CO₂ side, which is very important for us.
The CO₂ performance in the group was very convincing. As I said earlier, you know, the target on the left was the one communicated at the capital markets. Just to remind you, in the last 32 years, we came down 25%. In the next 8 years, with that stiff target of 400, we wanna do more than that, further 30% reduction. Obviously everybody said, "Ooh, this is very aggressive." Yes, it is aggressive, but we are paid for setting ourselves ambitious target, not overly aggressive. Then we need to live, deliver against that. You know, the train has left the station, and I'm glad to say the train has absolutely left the station in the right manner. We let us measure against what we deliver.
Here we are, at least after you know, 18 months now out of the gate, you know, from 576 down to 561. That's 25kgs in just 18 months. I think that that's à la bonne heure and moving absolutely in the right direction. The very important piece for us is this is not a marketing exercise for Marine and myself. This is deeply rooted. Deeply rooted in our plants and countries. They really carry the ball. With that, I'm very convinced that we will rock the world in that respect. Stay tuned for our journey down to 400. Last but not least, the outlook. I mentioned that upfront.
We keep it stable on the top-line side, so strong increase in revenues. It will be the guidance is a slight decrease in operating EBITDA and RCO. I also shared with you at the beginning, our guiding target is clearly to stick to the old guidance. Let's wait and see. It will all depend a little bit on the input cost development for the remainder of the year. CapEx will be below EUR 1.2 billion as we promised, ROIC around 9% and leverage between 1.5 and 2, no change. In that respect, we are really looking forward to your questions.
Thank you, Dominik. Thank you. Operator, could you start the Q&A, please?
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we'll begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wished to ask a question may press star followed by one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star followed by two. If you're using speaker equipment today, please lift the handset before making your selections.
Anyone who has a question may press star followed by one at this time. One moment for the first question, please.
All right. Everybody familiar with the Q&A process. As I can see in the list, there are many, many questions in the queue already. So please, limit your question to two at a time and no follow-ups, please, for the time being, and we can always jump back in the queue later. First question comes from Paul Roger.
Hey, Paul.
Hi, Paul.
Oh, hello guys. Sorry, I was on mute. Schoolboy error. Yeah, good afternoon, gents. So yeah, I'll keep it to two then. First question's on European gas. I mean, obviously you don't have a direct exposure or burn gas for your kilns, but have you done any thinking in terms of what shortage or rationing over the winter could mean indirectly for you? I guess either in terms of demand or maybe supply chains. Then secondly, on the cost side, can you remind us how hedged you are for energy in the second half? And what magnitude of cost inflation you're baking into the guidance overall? Thank you.
Yeah. Let me take the first one, and then maybe René goes to the second one and maybe also comments on the first one a little bit, because he obviously, you know, that he's over the energy purchasing side. On the European gas, Paul, as you mentioned rightly so, we are not directly exposed a lot. We have. Our plants are not run by gas. There are small exceptions in the UK and some other countries for drying processes, but this is not critical. This will not take the business down. In that respect, we do not have a supply issue on gas directly.
Where it obviously impacts us is indirectly on the electricity side, because as you know, in continental Europe, but not only, also outside of Europe, there is a lot of gas-fired power plants. Then also if there is a gas shortage, they need to switch and then it becomes an economic question. So it's not a supply issue from our side, it's economic decision at some point, you know. At some crazy price developments, it becomes less and less interesting to operate. So I think in that respect, that's I think the risk going forward is not from our perspective, the supply. Paul, I say this openly, yeah. I think Europe is already in its mind prepared for a gas stop out of Russia.
We are politically trying to avoid this, and that we should also economically try to avoid it. If I listen a little bit around, I understand that most people have prepared for a gas stoppage. That's also, I think, good news because it will take the speculation out of the price at some point. That's a little bit my assumption that will, because there is a lot of speculation in this whole pricing on the energy side now. That's at least my view on it. Let's wait and see how that continues, but no direct exposure on the gas or very limited, and then an exposure indirectly on the electricity side.
That may be to René on the question, you know, what's the hedging policy.
Thanks, Dominik. Paul, to answer your question, our forward coverage across the group, in terms of electricity, sits around 60%-70% for the remainder of the year. Then what additional costs we have, that's difficult to say. It would be not professional if I answer this to you because you see the volatility in the market that swings every day 20%, 30%, 40%, 50% even in certain markets. As I said, 60%-70% forward coverage. To give a precise answer at this point in time, I guess this would be not professional if I-
Yeah. Paul, that's I think, you know, why management style is being flexible around this. Because there are, you know, you can then calculate with forwards and everything. But if you look at the volatility, these forwards, even during the day, not even only during the week, they have massive volatility, which also gives us the opportunity. Whenever it drops to a certain level, we obviously buy additional shares of that coverage. So I think it's now an hourly, if not minutely exercise to do this. The company is well on its toes to get this done. You know that we have centralized the process quite substantially in that respect. Not to buy now on elevated levels for into next year, that's not the point.
To really be very quick on our decision points on the key commodities.
Yeah, makes sense. Great. Thank you very much.
Thanks, Paul. Next question comes from Luis Prieto, Kepler Cheuvreux.
Hey, Luis.
Hi, Luis.
Hey, guys. Yes, I'd like to ask a couple of things. The first one is, volumes were weak in the second quarter. What dynamics are at play in those figures, and how should we think about volume performance in H2? The comparison base, I assume is milder in the second half of the year. The second question would be, what happens to pricing if we go into a recession environment? I'm talking hypothetically here. Would you expect prices to generally stick, or would they lose momentum? Thank you.
Luis, that's the 1 billion dollar question. What's the volume and price development? I think, thanks a lot for that question. I think the volume development is very different from market to market. Yes, you see a global figure in the end, but I tell you there are markets where the volumes are absolutely up in all business lines. There are markets where the volumes are down in all business lines. I think this is really a market by market dynamic. Also business line, I think it's interesting to see the aggregate business line right now holds up a little bit better than the Cement and Ready Mix. Why is that the case?
Because if there is a slowdown, I think it first comes typically on the residential side. I mean, the ECB has raised the rate 0.5%. The Fed has raised the rates again 0.75%. Inflation is very high. I think if you listen to your friends left and right, are they now deciding for a new build house or renovating of the house? Probably not. They postpone it. I think in that respect, the order books are very well filled. I think that's important to understand. The order books are very well filled, but the question is, do all these projects now get executed on the residential side? I think there potentially will be a little bit of a slowdown.
On the flip side, we are very positive on infrastructure. You know, there are the programs in place. You go all the way from Australia to the U.S., you go to the EU, you go to the U.K. I mean, some of you sit in the U.K., travel from London to Birmingham, and you see only construction sites all over the place. We are well in the midst of it. That's for example, a market which is important for us that will really get some traction on the infrastructure in the second half. Mixed picture, residential a little bit slower, commercial fairly stable, infrastructure up. That's a little bit and for us it's one third, one third, one third, huh? Just to give you an indication.
On the pricing side, you know, is there a correlation between volume and pricing? Historically, you could make that argument. I said before, from our perspective, that may change because that's where our sustainability efforts also come in. From our conviction, in the end, it will be a product differentiation issue. For the very highest commodity, you may see some more pricing elasticity, but for those products who have a competitive edge, you will less so see this. That's my conviction. Then it's a matter of timing and how well spread is your product portfolio in that respect. That's why we make such a heavy push on the sustainability, on the sustainable revenues and on the sustainability product portfolio. I see great traction in that respect.
That should also cut a little bit the historical dynamics between volume and pricing.
Excellent.
Thanks, Luis Prieto, for your question. The next question comes from HSBC, Pujarini Ghosh.
Hi. Good afternoon.
Hi there.
I have two as well. The first one is on North America. If you could, I mean, please elaborate a little bit more, how you are looking at it as we speak, whether things have started improving and how do you look for the H2 and within H1, whether there was any one-off performance which kind of impacted that number. When you talk about the monthly improvement and June being positive EUR 81 million on price-cost, could you give us a little more flavor about which region is kind of giving the strongest possible push there and yeah. That would be great. Thank you.
Yeah. First question on North America, as I said, you know, there is good price momentum in the US, that's certainly and in Canada, so that's certainly moving in the right direction. When it comes to volumes, that's a little bit for us, you know, impacted by the labor issues that we have mentioned. Some of the labor issues happened in, for us, critically important markets. That obviously pulls also down the volumes.
You see the reason you can see it also in the numbers is that, the volume development in cement and ready-mix is more subdued than it is in aggregates, because the labor issues typically hit you on the ready-mix and on the cement side, not so much on the aggregate side because there's a pickup business in North America. I think that for your benefit, there are no drastic one-offs. But this is a, if you wish to say so, this is a one-off because the labor issues are behind us. All business are back to normal in that respect.
If you wish to call this a one-off, this is a one-off, but there are no fancy bookings, left or right, in North America of any meaningful magnitude. On the price over cost side, I think, you know, let's be happy with the 81% on group level. I mean, as you can calculate yourself, this is a good performance in all areas, but a very strong performance in Europe. I think in that respect, there is a good contribution also coming from you, which for us is the critical piece because we have a heavy European footprint.
That's where the most doubts of you, all of you around the world were sitting, whether we would ever be able to to move the pricing in such a necessary magnitude given the high cost inflation. I think that's why we were razor sharply focused to get our core markets moving. I think the results speak for themselves.
All right.
Thanks, Pujarini Ghosh.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. The next question comes from Deutsche Bank, Matthias Pfeifenberger.
Hey, Matthias.
Yes. Good afternoon, gents. Two questions from my side. Firstly, on the resi slowdown, was that a statement of yours regarding H2, or are you already seeing a slowdown, cancellations, in new construction, especially residential?
Yeah, as I said before, Matthias, I think from our perspective, and you see this also in the announcement of the large home builders in the U.S., I think there is a slowdown in residential on the horizon. I think I'm not gonna paint the picture. I'm very optimistic for our H2, but I'm not gonna paint you a rosy picture of everything. From my perspective, there is a slowdown coming on the residential side. You can always discuss about the magnitude, but let's just, you know, let's also keep in mind this comes out of a ten-year growth cycle that at some point needed to come to a slowdown, and that's what we will see. We are not overly pessimistic on this.
I think this is not gonna fall off the cliff. We're not up for a massive housing crisis. That's not what we see right now. What happens in 6-12 months, nobody can tell you. Is there a slowdown? Yes. Is there a massive drop off? No.
The second question is really coming back to North America. You had kind of the best volume development, especially in your biggest business US, and still margins are down another 400 pips in Q2, which actually compares on a H1 level, is even closer to Asia-Pac, where you really had a lockdown impact. What's really happening? Is this just the labor issues? I mean, you started a margin improvement program a while back. You ran the business for several years. A lot of your competitors really reported improving margins. What's the missing piece?
Yeah, Matthias, I think, you know, you know, the lag is always, you know, quarter-over-quarter there is a lag, and then we have to also take the longer term perspective. We've done a diligent analysis also in the benchmark. I think the aggregate performance overall is, from my perspective, okay, but it's not, it's never perfect. I think, to answer your question, you know, quarter-over-quarter or half-year-over-half-year, you may make your point, but if you then go back into 2021 and 2022 and 2020 and take the longer term perspective, I think also the volume development and the margin development, I think is in the right direction. From our perspective, the margin is still ahead of everybody else.
You make your own analysis. Has it come down from a record level last year? Yes. I would argue in absolute percentage terms, it's still on a very strong level. Rest assured, we're gonna stay very focused on further improving our aggregates business. We stick to our communicated targets until 2025. There is no change. I'm from today's perspective, I'm very confident that we get there.
Okay, thanks.
Thank you, Matthias. Next in line is Elodie Rall from JP Morgan.
Hi, Elodie.
Hi, Elodie.
Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one, if I may come back to your hedging strategy. You gave us your outlook for this year, but how about 2023? Do you think it makes sense to hedge at these levels for next year, and how much have you already done? My second question is, with regard to your capital allocation strategy, can you remind us of your main focus and whether you're looking at some acquisitions at the moment and maybe whether you think at this stage it could make sense to also rotate a little bit out of cement and into light side like some of the peers are doing? Thanks.
Elodie, maybe I'll let René first comment on the hedging, but let's not get too far out. You know, we are giving you the indication for 2022, but careful with 2023. You know, we changed our hedging strategy, so let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. But René, maybe comment on the
Elodie, as we said already in the last call at these super elevated levels, it would be not so clever to lock in now for that period. Obviously a few months ago when we changed the policy, we've already locked in volumes for 2023, which, where the costs are much lower than you have now. Let's wait and see how that develops. I think it's by far too early now to talk in detail about 2023.
We take a longer term perspective on this. We don't go in the volatile setup and, you know that we now take a longer term perspective. We changed the policy, we communicated that, and in that respect, we also try to fill the buckets necessary for 2023. On your capital allocation question, no change. We always said, you know, we're gonna stay very focused on our core materials, and that's what we will do. In terms of geographic portfolio, I think we said, we're not gonna go into South America, to make that very clear. We are also not going to additional countries with our core business. We are gonna continue to optimize our portfolio.
In terms of bolt-on, we already said in the last call, you know, we have smaller ones, mid-sized one, it can also be bigger ones, if it fits to our core strategy that we've communicated in our capital market. It needs to also, in any respect, with every acquisition, with every investment we do now, it needs to support the sustainability story. I think it's, you know, whenever we have a discussion around our new Mitchell plant, if we discuss new investments in our core assets, if we discuss smaller, mid-size or larger acquisitions, it needs to support the sustainability or and/or the digital topic. In that respect, no change to the capital allocation communicated strategy, Elodie.
Okay. Very clear.
Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Yury Taranov from Redburn.
Hey, Yury.
Hi, Yury.
Hi, good afternoon. On your pricing, you have very high price increases, you know, 20% from cement. This is quite spectacular. Going forward, I'm wondering what sort of discussions you're having with the customers. Steel prices are on the way down and your customers buy steel, and steel is also a very energy intensive product. I worry how sustainable your prices are. I can easily imagine that the customers will start refusing paying such high prices for cement when other materials are on the way down.
Yury, I cannot comment on the steel in detail, but I would like to remind you, at least the statistic that I have seen, that the steel prices have doubled, if not more. I saw statistics where the steel prices are up 80-100% in the last 12 months. We are by far not in that magnitude. I think I do not see a big parallel. It has not in the past, and I'm not sure why it should now. They have been always both energy intensive, so I don't see in terms of pricing a big parallel between steel and cement.
You're not, these are not the discussions that you're having so far with any of your customers?
I mean, every discussion with our customers does not only talk about price. It talks very much about the sustainability topic about delivery about quality. There are four, five different arguments that we have with our customers. I know you all focus and think that we only discuss pricing with our customers. You know, on this differentiation journey that we are on in terms of making a difference for our customers, we also have a price discussion, but not only have a price discussion. That's also the reason why my answer to this is, you know, I don't expect that there is a pricing only discussion, and then we get into the good old commodity game again. This may happen here and there, but it shouldn't happen everywhere.
We are trying to differentiate ourselves at the customer interface and have a very educated discussion and take our customers along on this transformational journey. Because, you know, for us to transform alone without our customers will not work, so we need them aside with us. That's true also for the pricing discussion, and we do this in a collaborative approach with our key customers and our strategic customers. In that respect, let's wait and see how this works. Do we see, and that was your question, pricing drop off at this in a larger extent? No.
Thanks, Yury.
Hey, no, wait, hold on. Sorry. Am I allowed to speak still?
Okay. Well, do you have a follow-up or on your question, or?
I only chipped in half of a question. I mean, one of the things, one of the impressions that I'm actually getting, you know, speaking about prices, is that high prices are starting to impact your volumes, especially in Europe. I wonder whether that's the right impression.
This is not a one-up answer to this, no? This is almost an account by account question. To the earlier point, I think there is a slowdown in volumes in general in Europe. That's not. Again, Europe is not Europe, uh? There is the UK is different from continental Europe and even in continental Europe, the development is different. So careful with the quarter-over-quarter judgment on that. I think there is in some markets there is a slowdown that I described to you earlier, and I think I'm not making any. Then maybe in one or two of the pricing discussions, you know, we also have to give up some volume.
That may be the case, but this is, rest assured we do this in conjunction with our customers and with a clear focus on making the right economic decision short-term and midterm. You know, this is not a quarter-over-quarter game. We are in there for the long run. We don't wanna burn any bridges, but is there, you know, on the edge of it always also a balance between pricing and volume? Absolutely. You know, if you make too many hikes on the last ton, that may also cost you not only margin, but you may not even make a profit on that, if you include CO2. We have to watch the situation carefully, yeah.
Okay. Can I just ask the second question? This is about energy. We spoke about this when you were presenting Q1 results, and I wonder what your current take is on the full year energy cost inflation. At Q1 you said 50%-60% was reasonable, but since then the energy costs went up further. What's your current estimates?
Yury , two things here. The first one is obviously the H2 2021 had already elevated costs. If you now go against that comparison base, you and take into consideration the higher energy costs now, we should probably live with a 60%-65%, let's say, higher cost in H2 this year versus last year, which means against a very high cost base already last year. That's a little bit what we see right now, but as we all said, it's very volatile and that's probably the message.
Okay, thanks. That's 60%-65% in H2. What is it if you take the full year? 'Cause I don't remember reading in your report what it was in the first half.
No, but you have this, no, in H1, we had 60%, so and then now you can do the math. I guess H1 60% and H2 roughly the same, just on a different basis.
I understand. Thank you.
Thanks, Yury. Next, one comes from Berenberg, Harry Goad.
Yeah, hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Can I just come back to the-
Hi, Harry.
Comment that, Dominik, I think you made earlier about infrastructure activity, and particularly in Europe. I take your point about the U.K., but I guess if I think about continental Europe and I guess, you know, some of the E.U. money, are you actually seeing that coming into the activity this year? Or was your comment more of an expectation for 2023? Thanks.
Harry , I think in the UK we seem to agree. On continental Europe, the picture there's not one continental Europe as you all know. I think we do see some effect of this in Eastern Europe. We see some effect of it in Western Europe. Do we see already the full effect of it? No. How quickly this kicks in, you know how the distribution in the EU works. That's a cumbersome administrative process. You see, the developments in Italy, so there are market by market, you know, dynamics that lead to the question, when does the money finally arrive? It needs to come from the EU level down to the national level, then from the national level to the county level, because they take the decision, then you need the permitting done.
You have the same dynamics that you have also in the U.S., that the market's even more transparent in terms of national level DOT, gas tax, and then travel ready projects, as they call them in the U.S. We have a similar dynamic in Europe. Do we expect a massive spike in the second half? I think that would be unfair to say, but do we see a further uptick on it? That's also, I think, our realistic assumption.
Okay. Thank you.
Thanks, Harry Goad. Next question comes from Tobias Woerner, Kepler Cheuvreux.
Hey, Tobias.
Hey, thanks for taking the questions as before. Number 1, when I look at your price increases 22% in Q2, some of your peers talk about supplements on the one hand CO2 cost supplements, and on the other hand, electricity supplements which are variable. What portion of your 22% in Q2, to be specific, do you estimate relates to the variable bit if you do apply it? That's question number 1. Maybe number 2 question for René, just give us a sense of the free cash flow generation into the second half and what you expect with regard to the net debt development, if possible. Thank you.
I'm not quite sure whether we got your first part of the question right. If you could, if you just maybe you also broke off a little bit. Could you repeat, please, exactly your first question?
Yes. The first question, hopefully you can hear me now, is, the 22% increase in prices in Q2, what portion of that relates to the variable part which some of your peers are talking about in terms of supplements for the CO2 costs and also electricity costs, which apparently are billed on a megawatt basis to some of their customers, if at all applicable to you?
You know, I said, I think earlier, this is an all-in view. This takes the gross picture. It takes all additional surcharges and everything that you apply. I think I shared with you in earlier calls that there is a flat-out price increase, but there is also all sorts of surcharges on specific elements in some markets on CO2, but by far not in all. I think sometimes it's baked into the total price increase. The same is true for the electricity. There are surcharges on electricity in some markets, but clearly not in all markets. We don't have a group overview. We don't split it necessarily into this variable cost piece.
For us, the gross result in the end is important. From our perspective, yes, we do have all these different tools available and use them, but use them very different in each of the markets, in each of the accounts that we talk to. In that respect, there is not a flat answer out of it, but there is an element of all of these things in the total performance of 22%. Maybe, René, you wanna cover the free cash flow one?
Tobias, obviously, the target is still to achieve, let's say, decent free cash flow. We should at least do another EUR 2 billion free cash flow from, let's say, first of July to end of December. We will, as I said, working capital, we should decrease CapEx, we will reduce, and then it's down to the operational performance. I guess, we should be all in line with what we said we're gonna do.
Yeah. Tobias, just to be very clear, we know from our perspective that cash is a key element for us, especially in this current volatile environment. René has shared with you the details on H1. We said we stick to our guidance also on the CapEx side to come in below EUR 1.2 billion. In that respect, we are very focused on the free cash flow development.
Thanks.
Thanks, Tobias. Next in line is Gregor Kuglitsch from UBS.
Hey, Gregor.
Hi, Gregor.
Hi, good afternoon. I'll have two questions. The first one, please, is whether you've done any contingency planning so that in the event, you know, things get a little bit more difficult, particularly in Europe. I'm thinking, for example, timing of maintenance schedules to maybe avoid the sort of peak energy periods in the winter. You know, what happens if there's gas rationing? I guess the question is, what have you got in your drawer to kind of protect the business and earnings. The second question is, if you can comment if there's further price increases that are coming through kind of sequentially, sort of maybe broad flavor.
I appreciate you don't want to talk about, markets specifically, but if you can just tell us whether there's more pricing action underway. Thank you.
Gregor , thanks for your question. A very simple answer to your first question. Yes, all of the above. Absolutely, we have contingency plans in place, and not only generally here on group level. Every country has a contingency plan in place, and is wherever necessary already in its execution. All of the tools that you described are part of that and some of some beyond of that. I think that's absolutely that's actually moving in the right direction. The second one was.
Whether there's more pricing action on the way?
On the pricing side, I think you saw the slide eight that we shared with you. This is not, you know, you can argue, "Why did you jump up in the Q2?" Well, you know, we have talked about this pricing effort. You cannot switch it on like light bulb, you have to also, you know, do this in conjunction with your customer base. We have worked on this very hard now for 12 months, and we see the results now coming through. In some markets, these are results coming from price increases from October last year. Others are price increases from January, others are price increases from March, others are price increases from June. Are there still price increases out in July? Yes.
We have not stopped to work on that. There is no guarantee to our customer base that we hold prices for the next 12 months. That's not happening. We stay flexible on an as-needed basis. Beyond June, there are already price increases in the markets announced in quite important markets for us, but I'm not gonna say anything more for competitive reasons. That's clear.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from Nabil Ahmed from Barclays.
Hey, Nabil.
Nabil?
Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one was about North America. Could you remind us how much cement you import annually, broadly speaking? Has this mix shifted in recent months, maybe with the disposal of the West Coast operations? Maybe related to that, do you have any plan to increase domestic capacity in the U.S. in particular? The second question, I remember a few years back when we were discussing the Carbon ETS reform, there was a view, and I think you share that view, that it could lead to significant capacity closure and/or consolidation in Europe. If we consider the super high inflation, are you seeing anything like that happening? Any small competitors you know struggling?
Related to that, do you have any intention to, you know, maybe take advantage of that to consolidate some markets in Europe? Thank you.
Nabil, you are also longer with us, so they're good questions, both of them, or all three of them. I think you sneaked in the 2.5, let's put it that way. On the U.S. import side, yes, it's true. With the West Coast disposal, we reduced our import share. That's clear. That was also one of the reasons for the disposal. You know that historically we are the player in the U.S. that used to have the highest import share, and that has come down since then. Please understand that I cannot share that competitive detail. I cannot share with you the import volumes.
In the broader sense, yes, the share has come down. That's for us also good to keep a little bit of this balance because, you know, as much as this may be a little bit more difficult to manage in the competitive peaks of the market, it becomes an advantage on the way down, because you can switch this off overnight. This you cannot so easily do with your installed capacity. Second question, is there additional domestic capacity coming? Yes. You know that we are in a very competitive one. As of beginning of next year, we will have our K4 Mitchell plant coming, $750 million investment. That will consolidate 5 old kilns.
That obviously will substantially help us on the cost and margin position, but it will also help us on capacity, on the capacity side. In that respect, that's a very interesting asset to come on stream. On that one, timing is perfect from my perspective, because even if you would see at some point some slowdown in the U.S., this is a highly competitive asset. In that respect, absolutely going in the right direction. On the Carbon ETS situation, I know your underlying assumption. You've shared that with us. Do we already see significant amount of capacity closures in Europe? Not that I'm aware of. Do we see some movements, you know, the one buying, the other selling? I think not fundamentally.
You know that we've done some transactions in Southern Spain, so have some others, but we do not see yet additional movements. Will we see maybe at some point some movement in that respect? For us, let's wait and see for the result developments of some of the key European competitors, also the smaller ones. Because this is a rocky time now, and whether everybody will be able to pull off what we have pulled off, difficult to say. It's not for me to speculate. Are we up there in a large consolidation play in continental Europe? Let's wait and see. We only do this if this fits exactly to our financial metrics and to our sustainability metrics. Otherwise, it doesn't make any sense for us.
We are not gonna go there, carrying the hedge below our armpits. You know, we do this in a very cold-blooded business decision, and take only advantage if this happens, if this makes economic sense for our shareholders and sustainability sense. Okay, thanks.
Thank you, Nabil. Next in line is Arnaud Lehmann from Bank of America.
Hey, Arnaud.
Arnaud.
Thank you. Good afternoon. My first question is regarding Africa, which actually has been a decent success story for the group in the last years. It's been a little bit under pressure in the second quarter. I'm assuming it's cost related. I think the base effect is getting a bit easier in H2. Are you confident that you can start to grow the profit there again into the end of the year? My second question, maybe for René, I guess. You don't show the refinancing schedule in the slides anymore. Could you give us an indication if you have any large maturities coming up? Is the refinancing already getting a bit more expensive now that the ECB has stopped buying back your bonds? Thank you very much.
Yeah, Arnaud, very good. Thanks for making it a 50-50 split. Then we bring our CFO also into the picture. That's good. You know, the Africa situation for us, and you know this, Arnaud, you've been with us for a long time, has been a very small market for us, for many, many years. I think the team has done an excellent job to move it to a fantastic profitability level. Now, is this gonna go in these circumstances going on forever, and we see another record and then yet another record? Let's not get too greedy, I would say. Some of the African countries are fighting with the current situation in the combination of food supply and also energy supply.
Not so much the cost, but it's a supply issue sometimes. This is a market by market exercise. You know, Africa from our perspective, only works if you look at it from a portfolio. I know many of you have questioned that, but to be just in one country in Africa is a gamble. That's it. You can also go to the casino. We have a well-balanced portfolio in Africa. There is always a market that is down, but there always is a market that is up. That will shift, to answer your question specifically. You know, while some markets have gone well over the last two, three, four years, they will maybe be a little bit more under pressure while other markets come back up.
We are confident that the overall portfolio dynamics in Africa will work, and we will continue to work on that. We have a very strong management team in place. Yes, there was a little bit of softening, but do we see things falling off the cliff in our African business? Clearly not.
Arnaud, let me take the second question. Until beginning of 2024, so end of Q1 2024, we have no other maturities. We don't have any need to tap the market. That's for your, let's say, first part of the question. The second part, yeah, obviously, the interest rates are going up, but it's as well super volatile, yeah. Compared to the high, let's say, the highest rate we have seen two, three weeks ago, we came already 100 basis points down, if you consider the 10-year German bond rate and our high bank spread. It's very volatile, but obviously we are not at 1.5% like three months ago. Yeah, that's clear.
We came already down, and as I said, the next 18 months, we have no maturity to come. No need to tap the market right now.
Excellent. Thank you very much.
Thanks, Arnaud. Next in line is Yassine Touahri from On Field Investment Research.
Hey, Yassine.
Yassine.
Hello, good afternoon. I've got two questions. First, on the slide eight of your presentation, you're showing that the price cost has turned positive in June. Do you believe that the price cost will remain positive in the next six months based on the price increase that you have announced and based on the current energy price? If so, do you believe that you could overall recover the negative price costs that impacted your EBITDA in H1? That would be my first question. My second question is on the US. Could you give us a bit more color on your strategy and the industry strategy to switch from ordinary Portland cement to limestone cement? When do you think the ordinary Portland cement will be fully replaced?
What could be the impact on your margin? Could you replace expensive imports by local production? Could you reduce your energy costs? That would be very helpful if you can give us some color on those two issues.
Yeah. Yassine, very good questions, both of them. Thanks a lot. Price over cost in the second half, our clear target is to keep that positive. Can we guarantee that? No. But is it our clear target to keep it positive? Absolutely. That's the name of the game. We stay very focused on that. In North America, you know, yes, we can do some marketing, but for us, it's key again to deliver. I'm absolutely convinced that we are by far the market leader in that switch from OPC to Portland limestone cement. In fact, we have invented it almost, and we are already in the millions in terms of tons on Portland limestone cement.
The growth rate is very substantial in our portfolio, and it will continue to do so. In that respect, we are absolutely on the right track, and it fully supports our sustainability agenda. Are we gonna stop there? No. You know, when do we stop OPC totally? I cannot tell you. You know, we are very focused on sustainability, but we are not stupid. We are not doing stupid things if it's not necessary. Let's wait and see how this develops. One thing is very clear, our sustainable revenue portfolio is sharply increasing also in the U.S. The PLC is only one small element in that respect.
Thank you, Yassine. Cedar Ekblom, you have the honor to finish off the Q&A.
Cedar.
Cedar.
Save the best for last.
Thank you, Dominik. That's very kind. I've got one question on alternative fuels. I'm sure that you're trying to increase your alternative fuel rates at the moment, not just because of the energy costs, but also around your ESG ambitions. I'm sure your peers in Europe are trying to do the same thing. Can you talk to us specifically on the European landscape? What's happening from an alternative fuels perspective when it comes to availability, pricing? We know that you get paid to take the product often, but is that changing? It's also not just cement producers that are looking for alternative fuels. I assume the steel industry is doing the same. Maybe just a bit of color on what's happening there and whether that can be an incremental headwind, from a cost perspective. Thank you.
Yeah, Cedar . Very good question. I think this has a significant impact, obviously, given the energy cost inflation in general. Now, there is not a quick answer to that, and I would also broaden the horizon a little bit beyond Europe, because for us, alternative fuel is not only a European issue. Just that as a general remark, you know, for us, this is a plant by plant, a global issue. You can do the alternative fuel play also in many other markets, also, especially in the emerging markets. We may not focus so much on that, but especially when it comes to biomass content, there is a very good play you can do in emerging markets on this alternative fuel.
Although the alternative fuel rates in Europe is already well in the 60s%, or even higher, you know, the emerging market one is on a lower scale, but that tells you also the room for improvement. Just take our Indonesian business. You know, we've talked for decades now on the coal issue. We are rapidly increasing our alternative fuel rates in those countries. That has obviously a huge leverage on the competitiveness of the player. By the way, I think we have an advantage being a European player in those markets. You know, I think we have the knowledge and the supply chain to fulfill the massive needs of alternative fuels, especially also in the emerging markets.
I come back to your European question. I obviously, there is no direct link to other energy costs. The market is the market and that may also lead to some pricing, availability, quality issues in some of the alternative fuels. That's, Cedar Ekblom, why we are not focused in each of our plants. We are very cautious to focus on just one supplier or one alternative fuel. We have deliberately taken the freedom to say we stay very flexible. We made this a purchasing exercise, not an owning exercise, because the market is so rapidly changing that if you own it's so difficult to react. If you buy it on the spot, you're staying far more flexible.
Market by market, we look at a very broad supplier base, and we look at a very broad alternative fuel base that then has either biomass content more or less, or has 100% biomass content. That obviously helps then the CO2 agenda in that respect. To draw a line below my longer answer, we are very, very focused on alternative fuels globally. You saw the development earlier in the slide. It's moving absolutely in the right direction. Current alternative fuel rate in Europe is much higher than in emerging markets, but that gives a much higher room for manoeuvre in emerging markets, which we rapidly do.
We don't stand still in Europe, and we try to make the best deal in terms of both economic decision, but also sustainability decision, because as I said, it very much depends then also on the biomass rate.
Great. That's very helpful. Thank you very much.
Thanks, Cedar.
All right. Thank you. This completes our call, today. Thank you very much for dialing in. We are going into summer break and then after, in September, see you on some of the roadshows and the conferences that we are attending. Until then, stay safe and healthy. Bye-bye.
Have a good holiday.
Everyone, bye.
Thanks, everybody.
Bye.