Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Heidelberg Materials third quarter 2023 results. Throughout today's call recorded presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Press the star key, followed by zero, for operator assistance. I would now like to turn the conference over to Christoph Beumelburg. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator. Good morning and everyone, and good morning, everyone, welcome to our analyst and investor call on the results of the third quarter. As you know, on the nineteenth of October, we had already pre-released our headline numbers. As you've seen with the release today, these numbers have not changed, so we will use the call today to shed some further color on the regional development, progress we made on financials and sustainability, as well as remind you on our capital allocation policy. Dominik and René will go through some prepared remarks before we start with the Q&A, so over to you, Dominik.
Yeah, Chris, thanks a lot, and also a warm welcome from my side and René to this Q3 call. Thanks for joining. As Chris said, we have basically released the figures early as they were, from our perspective, very strong, and deviating positively from the consensus. That's why we have gone ad hoc. You see that revenues are up 2%, EBITDA is up 25%, RCO even up 33%. What I think is a bit new versus the ad hoc is the margin development, and we'll take you through the margin development for the group and also for the region. Free cash flow, very good, around EUR 2 billion. René will go through the details. Our share buyback program has been done on Tuesday this week, so we delivered exactly what we promised.
2.5 years, EUR 1 billion in three tranches. First two tranches have been canceled. We continue to make very good progress, not only on CO2 reduction, but also on the CCUS and other CO2 reducing projects. So that there, I think the pipeline is really full, and we get good traction with those projects. Then last but not least, we have upgraded our guidance in the ad hoc. So it's now EUR 2.85 billion-EUR 3 billion, and the ROIC, we are even taking up now. That's a change to the ad hoc and an update to the ad hoc, where we said it's gonna be around 9%, so now we go clearly above 9%. And the same is true for leverage.
We said it's gonna be between 1.5 and 2, and now we guide that it's gonna be below 1.5. I think the next page, on page four, I only would like to go... Sorry, three. No, four. Four, three, sorry. Three, I would only go to the operating margin. You see the other figures you know, but the operating margin, you see, jumps up to 24.8 now. That's not only above last year's Q3, but also above the very good Q3 in 2021. And I'll go through the next page, where you see the same development for the first nine months, and you see there, we are still a little bit behind the Q1, the Q3, or the nine months 2021.
That indicates that the margin development gets even better traction as we go along during the year. That's important, that's that the positive margin development has clearly accelerated during the nine months, more towards the end, and from our perspective, this looks very promising to continue. If you go to the next page, 5, you see the drivers of the EUR 270 million improvement on EBIT, so clearly above EUR 1 billion for the Q3. That's driven by volume decline, mainly coming from residential, partially commercial, outbalanced by infrastructure and some industrial projects, but carried very much by positive price over cost, and that is clearly positive in all areas we operate. Important point, so there is not one that's moving to the ceiling and the others all lagging behind.
It's really carried by all five cylinders, and that's moving in the right direction. That's also true for page six. If you go to the full year, pretty similar picture, EUR 600 million up to almost EUR 2.3 billion now for the first nine months of the year. What you may be more interested about, because that's going beyond, to Chris's point, the ad hoc discussion, is the area perspective. So let's dive into North America. We've discussed on these calls for the last 12-18 months, a little bit, our performance in, in North America, and I have to say Q3, we are now, quite satisfied. We are never, we are never, never fully satisfied, but, we are quite satisfied with what we see from, from North America, not only in terms of financial figures-...
but also in terms of organic investment, because our Mitchell, I was there again a couple of weeks back, is really ramping up. We haven't seen the full results at all this year, but we are now getting to the targeted operational performance already six months after plant start. So that, from our perspective, is a very good, a very good development. We've also invested in Port Canaveral, as you know, and also that one gets significant traction. And then, you know, it's all about organic investment and M&A. You remember our Tiller acquisition, also that one gets traction that clearly sits above the original assumptions of the business case. So in that respect, I think the good news is that all of these will add fully to the EBITDA and RCO next year.
All of this pay more towards the second half of this year. So in that respect, that should set all the sales for our North American business for next year. You see the margin development in North America really jumping ahead of 21 and also 22, now with almost 24%. And again, none, none of the three investments that I showed you is yet in that margin development fully. So in that respect, I think we stay very optimistic for our business in North America. If you go to Western Southern Europe, next page 8, a strong performance on an absolute terms of RCO, more than EUR 100 million up from last year in the quarter alone. And look at the margin jump there from 10.7% to 17.2%.
It's never perfect, but 17 is better than 10, so we have a way to go, but I think this is really a very strong recovery in margins for a very important area for us. NEECA, next page nine, basically performing on a very high level. Again, EUR 230 million result, margin at a strong 23.5%. Overall, very strong development from, from, from NEECA again, so tick in the box, they are continuing to perform on very high levels. APAC was a little bit difficult through COVID, you know that, but we are more and more optimistic for APAC now. And you see this also reflected in our Q3 performance. China remains difficult, but the other countries are coming back.
Australia, a difficult market position, but we have some internal retrenching that gives us good hopes that we will continue to perform very well in Australia and even maybe a little bit better down the road for next year. Same is true for Indonesia. You saw that Indocement has done another very important strategic acquisition in Central Java. That is obviously not yet in the figures in Q3, but most probably will close the transaction now in the next couple of weeks. And that would then mean that it will go fully into our figures next year, because that asset will be fully consolidated and will be a strong contribution, big synergy potential for Indonesia. So we see clear improvement there. India has turned the corner.
You know, we made a management change in India. We see clear traction there. Volume recovery is moving along very well. So in that respect, also India looks better. Thailand performing on a high level, even improving. Malaysia is coming back up after difficult years. Bangladesh holding up on a good level. So overall, we have high hopes for APAC going forward. Africa, AEM is performing on a very stable level, around the EUR 100 million mark for Q3. Margins also coming up again. Volumes are in a couple of countries under pressure, Ghana, Tanzania, partially, Morocco used to be a little bit under pressure. But then I think we see country after country stabilizing, not only on volumes, but also on currencies.
You know that we have some currency impact in Ghana, in Egypt, and that is at least stabilizing on the lower, on the lower level. So in that respect, I think, we are, we are still fighting for the closure of the transaction in Tanzania. We are hopeful that this can be done, by the end of this year, and that then would also make a significant additional contribution of organic growth, for the African business for 2024. With that, René, I would, turn over to you on the financial part.
Thanks, Dominik. Hello, everyone from my side. So if you look at our last twelve months, free cash flow for September, that reached around EUR 2 billion, which is a nice improvement from from the last two years. And our cash conversion now reached a rate of approximately 50%, which is, I guess, a good number for us. Net CapEx below, will be below EUR 1.1 billion. We are very disciplined here, as we always promised, and even will be hopefully, be below the guidance we've given, so EUR 1.1 billion. So, that is also contributing to a good cash flow. Then our net debt has reduced by EUR 600 billion, bringing the leverage another 0.35 down, and we are now again on a very, very comfortable level.
As Dominic alluded to on Tuesday, the share buyback program was finished. The 1 billion shares were bought back, and we canceled already earlier the second tranche of the share buyback. If you go to the next slide, you see that's slide 13, just our cash flow and net debt leverage on a chart. You see on the left, the improvement of EUR 1.3 billion versus last year, September. So bear in mind, that's not year to date, it's last 12 months rolling number, yeah? So, and where does it come from? It's really RCOBD plus, this is in CapEx, plus, lower working capital outgo, yeah, what we as well said.
Net debt now at EUR 5.9 billion, EUR 600 million below last year, and the leverage now at 1.39, even slightly below our target corridor. If we go to the next slide, slide 14, I guess we wanted to demonstrate you what we have promised during our 2022 capital markets day, and what we delivered against. And if you look at the left chart or left bar, you see the usage of our free cash flow from 2018 to 2021. Yeah, 55% debt payback, 26% shareholder loan, shareholder return, and 19% smaller bolt-ons. In the middle, that is the graph shows you what we have promised.
There you see lower debt payback, because our balance sheet was strong already last year, and increased shareholder return and increased M&A. And on the right, you see what we have really done from September 2021 to September 2023. We clearly reduced the debt payback. As promised, we doubled, nearly doubled the shareholder return to 43%, and then we increased as well the bolt on gross CapEx. And this is exactly what we have said in 2022, and I think very comfortable, we can say we have delivered a very good shareholder return the last two years.
Yeah, and if you then go to the next page, I think that's a little bit one level down in the execution. I think as René was rightly saying, you know, for us, it's crucial to deliver what we promise, and we are a capital market, very capital market-oriented company. And that's why, you know, holding the line and making sure that we get to the point that we share with you as our target, we also hit. And I think what's interesting here on page 15, if you take it a little bit from a different angle, and we talked a little bit about portfolio optimization, and many have asked with you, "You know, what does that mean?" You know, very simple for me, we want to simplify and grow. That's that's very easy.
We basically divested about EUR 2.5 billion in the case of simplification. We, you know, we not only the, the West Coast in the U.S., but, you know, the Spanish part of the Spanish business, a lot of other smaller countries, and that all added up to EUR 2.5 billion. We added in a growth part, EUR 1.5 billion in small and mid-size bolt-on acquisitions that we shared with you. A couple of them paid good returns.
And obviously, you know, if you divest EUR 2.5 billion, I give EUR 1 billion back to the shareholders and grow the company by EUR 1.5 billion, and then move the results like we did in the last three years, I would say, "Wow, it's not so bad." I think that goes in the right direction, and we have a clearly defined M&A framework, how we want to grow the company. We have strict CapEx guidelines for internal PPE CapEx. Also, they need to go, they go under financial scrutiny. And then the same is true for M&A. It needs to be a good balance between strategic rationale and financial rationale. You know, we don't go and say, "This is a strategically very important acquisition, we don't care about the financials." Doesn't happen.
It's the other way around, also doesn't happen, you know? So it always needs to be both, and we wanna stay focused on our core markets and co-improve the market positions, that, that Indonesia, for example, is now a good base, good example, that clearly a fantastic improvement of the market position of Indocement. We are rebalancing the earnings towards the more profitable businesses. I think that's, that's also clear. And we wanna make sure that we, we further reduce the complexity also of acquisitions by sticking very closely to our existing product portfolio and asset portfolio, because that also simplifies things over time and doesn't complicate them. Complexity adds costs and intransparency, and that's not what we want. And it also drives, on the financial side, obviously, the synergy potential.
Each of the acquisitions we do is very much looked for when it comes to synergies. In some cases, we then try to refinance also either by sustainability-linked bonds, if we go, if we tap into the bond market, or through disposal proceeds, like you see on the left side. That's very clear. And then we obviously have a clear, strict financial criteria on the M&A side. Both legs need to be in line with the communicated financial target that we shared with you on our capital market day. They obviously also need to be in line, like René said, with our shareholder return policy, and the numbers speak for themselves.
They are absolutely in line with our shareholder return policy, and with that, we want to create value not only for our shareholders, but also for our customers, employees, and obviously also our sustainability-linked societies. So in that respect, I think the target remains good shareholder return with very balanced disciplined and profitable growth. The combination of the two does the trick, and I think the track record is on our side. We strongly believe. Let me make that remark: It's not yet reflected in the share price. That's we say that very openly. We don't think that the great record of the last two or three years has been reflected enough in the share price.
It's moving in the right direction, but it's clearly below our expectations, and we'll continue to push to see that great job we do being fully reflected in the in the share price.... Okay, and then last but not least, sustainability highlights. I think you have seen most of these in separate communications. I think we continue to roll along very well in our CO2 emission reduction. We'll give you the full figures for the full year. Then we have the big project in Bulgaria, on the ANRAV project, first one in Eastern Europe, first full chain one, that will also cover transport and obviously storage. So in that respect, a good project.
Very important for us, GeZero, that's the first one in Germany, heavily funded by the EU Innovation Fund, but obviously also a very strategically and financially important project for us here in Germany, to show that decarbonization can be done, full decarbonization can be done in our home country. And that will have all the energy of the German management team and the group, to make this project a significant success for the group. We have had interesting developments on 3D. I think now we have got the first social housing project that got a lot of attention recently in one of the states in Germany. We continue to roll out the 3D efforts in other parts of the world. So in that respect, bear with us.
Good reduction in CO2 footprint, 55% in this one pilot project, so really moving in the right direction. We've got next to Ghana, a second calcined clay project now in Bussac, in France, launched, that will also reduce the CO2 footprint by 20%. We've got another very exciting Circle withdrawn project that will close the loop in a three-to-five-year project in France. Also very interesting for us, with a certain technology we'll apply there that is very promising from our perspective. Then on the guidance, we have in our talk raised the guidance to EUR 2.85 billion-EUR 3 billion, and now we are a couple of weeks further down the road.
I think from our perspective, we are comfortable to say our clear fighting target is to get as close to the EUR 3 billion as even possible. From today's perspective, we'll clearly be in the upper end of that range than in the lower end, to say that. CapEx will stay around EUR 1.1 billion. The ROIC will be clearly above 9%. So you see also here we're becoming more confident and more bullish for the remainder of the year, and the leverage will stay clearly below 1.5. So I think in that respect, we are moving in the right direction. That's it from us, Ozan and Chris and Katharina. So let's go with your questions.
Let's start the Q&A process.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question can do so by pressing star, followed by one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star followed by two. If you are using speaker equipment today, please leave the handset before making your selections. Anyone who has a question may press star, followed by one at this time. One moment for the first question, please.
Yeah. Thank you, operator. I see many, many questioners on the line, so as it is customary practice, in our calls, please restrict yourselves to two questions at a time in order to allow everyone to get a chance to ask their questions. First question comes from Elodie Rall from JP Morgan.
Elodie, hello.
Hello, Elodie.
Hello, hello. Thanks for taking my questions. So I have two then. First of all, could you give us a bit of indication of trends in October, in particular in Europe and in the U.S.? You've seen some volume declines, you, you've talked about residential weakness. So are you seeing any signs of stabilization at this stage, or is it getting worse? So that's my first question. And for my second question, I will go with buyback. So you have finished your program, you've explained to us again what your capital allocation strategy is, but you do have a very low leverage now. So what refrains you to do another buyback at this stage? Thank you.
Okay, Elodie. Thanks a lot. I'll, I'll give it a try, and then René can jump in. Quick answer to the trends in October, no change. So it's not getting, it's clearly not getting worse. That's not what we, we see. I think we have a couple of more working days in October. I think that's, that, that's interesting. From our perspective, no, if that was your working assumption, is there a decline, a worsening in the trend? Clearly not what we, what we see, rather a stabilization in some parts, even a little bit picking up. So from our perspective, I think the, the, the, that, that's it for the trend in October.
On the buyback, I think, René has shown you the picture, that we have put into the presentation. Clearly, our leverage is coming down. We are sitting below the corridor of 1.5-2, and that also indicates that there is room for both growth and M&A, but also for shareholder return. One part of the shareholder return, there are two parts that René mentioned on his slide. One is progressive dividends. We are coming up to our dividend decision in Q1 next year. Then, the same is true for buybacks. We have the flexibility to do buybacks. We have also the balance sheet to do it, but it needs to be a good combination of all of those two things.
Now let us roll along in this year. Let's fully do this share buyback, and then we'll decide about shareholder return. Clear commitment from our side that we continue the route of strong shareholder return. There's no change to that policy.
... Thank you, Elodie. The next question comes from Paul Roger from BNP Paribas. Paul. Hi, Paul.
Yeah, hello team. Hope you're well. Thanks for taking the question. So it's interesting, so in your prepared remarks, you seem to indicate a frustration with the share price. And I guess one of the things that doesn't seem to be fully reflected is the value of your U.S. platform. I just wonder if this is there anything sort of strategic that's sort of on your mind or that you might consider to address that issue? And then secondly, what magnitude of price increases have you announced for Europe next year, if any? If you're able to say at this stage.
Okay, Paul. Thanks a lot. Share price, you know, from, from our perspective, the, the remark comes from, a clear, you know, we are, we are competitive guys in Rheinland, and if you compare it, to, to, others in the industry, I think we have the highest upside, in terms of, performance being reflected in the share price. That's, that's where I was coming from, you know? I think that as simple as that, Paul, and the question is obviously, obviously, how you get there.
I think it's-- we continue to believe that we-- if we continue to deliver on what we have promised, if we continue to deliver what René has indicated in terms of great balance of growing the company, increasing profits, staying very focused on free cash flow generation, on cash conversion rate, we have all the freedom in the world to continue with small, mid-size and larger M&As on the one hand, and also shareholder returns in the combination of dividends and share buyback. So I think that is completely intact. And with your question to the U.S. platform, I think I agree with you. Our U.S. position is not enough reflected at all in our group share price performance.
That I would fully agree. And then the question is, how can you continue to do that and make that transparent? That's why we continue to have a very strong pipeline of organic projects and M&A projects in the U.S., that we continue to diligently execute, grow our non-U.S. exposure overall within the portfolio. As we always said, again, guys, always what we said, after the divestment of the West Coast, we said we are gonna mainly recycle that proceeds in North America over time. So there should not be any surprise that we continue to grow our North American footprint, and we continue to do portfolio management in other parts of the world.
You saw that we are selling out of smaller positions, notably in Africa, where we have a lot of smaller positions over the years, and we have started to divest a couple of them. And we'll continue to do so, to focus on less countries, but in those countries, have a number one or number two position, and the same is true for North America. So in that respect, whether you... The background of your question, Paul, was whether we go for a listing in the U.S. tomorrow, that is not yet our prime target. Yeah.
Well, I'm sorry, there was the pricing question in Europe as well.
Yes. Yes, yes, pricing in Europe. You know that I do not comment on specific price increases. I ask for your understanding. This is a very competition-sensitive topic, so I will not comment specifically around certain markets. The one thing is clear, we continue to advance our pricing also in Europe next year. That's true for WSE and Nika, because also, you know, there are, from our perspective, two main reasons for that. At first, as we said or three main reasons. First of all, fixed costs are coming up. There is underlying inflation, and I think we do all the fixed cost management that we can, but we cannot completely manage that away. So I think the costs of doing business are going up.
Secondly, variable costs, yes, energy costs are coming down, but they are by far not yet on the level of pre-crisis level. CO2 costs come up. CO2 certificates, although we are long, CO2 certificates are up. Yeah, and I think that warrants that we need to continue to develop our pricing also in Europe.
That's clear. Thank you very much.
Thanks, Paul. Next question comes from Cedar Ekblom, from Morgan Stanley.
Hey, Cedar.
Hello. Two questions from me. The first question, just back on M&A. Is there an optimal size of deal that you target? Most of the deals you've done have been bolt-on, so I'd just like to understand how you think about balance sheet capacity and your ambition to be 1.5-2 times net debt to EBITDA. If you went above that level of gearing, would that take a deal off the table? And then just a second question on your price over cost development, very impressive in the third quarter. Could you give us a little bit of color on the price over variable cost contribution, and maybe a bit of detail on any fixed cost reductions that you also might have done, which contributed to the margin improvement? Thank you.
Yeah, Cedar, maybe I'll take the first one and a small hint to the second one, and then I'll let René answer the second one, huh? You know, on M&A, Cedar, you are long enough in the business, you know, we can always dream on optimal sizes, but it's not, you know, unfortunately, we can't paint the world exactly how we want it. So, the way we look at this is we look at every deal that's out there.
You know, I think, because we know, we, we get to know a lot about the industry, we get to know a lot, a lot about, the specific market, a lot about the, the current, movements in the market, but then we have- we apply our very strict, M&A criteria. So in that respect, huge pipeline at the beginning, and then we boil it down, boil it down, boil it down. And we always said, you know, we have small, mid-size, and larger deals on the table.
The only thing we excluded is that we are not gonna do a multi-billion, and at the same time, multi-country, deal, because we don't want the complexity that would come with that, and that also doesn't warrant that you pay too much absolute money in order to improve the business. But outside of that, you know, we look at every size of the deal. But again, the size alone doesn't and we are not chasing the ... or let's put it the other way around, it's not like the bigger the elephant, the nicer it is for us. No. You know that we have changed the strategy in that respect. We look at North American performance.
You know, it's a great combination of organic investment and smaller and mid-sized, build on acquisitions, and here comes the financial return. So, I think in that respect, if the bigger the deals get, the more scrutiny we put on them, because it also has an impact on the overall financials of the group. And we, again, continue to deliver what we have, what we have promised to all of you, and that's why there is not an optimal size of M&A deals, but there is a rigid framework in place, and that the framework gets diligently applied. On the price overcost, just one remark on the fixed costs. Yes, we are seeing some good traction in reducing our fixed costs throughout the year.
They have been growing like everywhere else significantly, but we are doing a very good job in containing them, and we get clearly good traction as we go along, and that is certainly one of the contributors to the good margin development. That's my remark, and then René, maybe.
Yeah, just to your, to your question, the price over variable cost is EUR 508 million, and then you can do the math what the other one is. As Dominik said, there is still high inflation year-over-year, but you see that it's very much under control, I would have said.
That 508 is a Q3 number, just to be clear?
Correct. This is what you asked, Donna.
Yeah. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Thanks so much. Appreciate it.
Okay.
Thank you.
Thanks, Elodie. Next is Harry Goode from Berenberg.
Hey, Harry.
Yeah. Yeah, hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Just coming back on the cost piece again, and to the extent you can, can you give us any indication of when we think about the total cash cost that you'll be exiting this year at, compared to probably what you came into the year at, to give us a feel for how that run rate has contracted? And then separately, second question, can you talk about the US market into next year? We heard a lot about the strength of the manufacturing sector, the pickup in infrastructure spending, but then clearly it's still a tough housing market. I mean, is it sensible to think that the US market can deliver overall volume growth in 2024? Thanks.
Okay, Harry, let me maybe take the second one, and then René will take the first one on the cash cost. Harry, very simply, we are positive for next year in the US. I think that's the general remark. How it exactly plays out on the volume side, difficult to say, and that's also very different market by market. But overall, I think, you know, there is not a huge volume increase and not a huge volume drop from our perspective. And that's our early expectation for the US. It's very, you know, business line and application driven.
So residential, steep drop, obviously it's during 2023, and the recovery in 2024, you see little bits here and there, small markets where you see already a recovery. It very much also depends on our interest level, interest rate development and everything. So let's wait and see how that residential plays out. But keep in mind, you know, on the infrastructure side, as many of you have noted, we have not yet seen the full volume and the full power of the design program. So there we are very optimistic for not only for 2024, but also for 2025. We see these volumes more and more coming in and then out balancing the decline in residential.
I think the industrial building, we see large industrial building projects also going into 2024. So there we are, we are optimistic. So in the end, you know, if residential would turn the tide, that would then go more on the, on the very positive side. If residential stays subdued, then, you know, we should not expect huge improvements overall on the volume side for the next year. But overall, on the pricing, you know, before you ask that question anyway, so for us, it's still a high inflation country in North America, and that means that also in all industries, for me at least, for our company, we will continue to advance pricing in the U.S. and Canada in 2024 in all business lines.
Harry, to be honest, I'm not really sure what you are after.
I guess it was to get a feel. I mean, I guess when you came into the year, the business was still carrying very high levels of energy cost inflation as well as wage inflation. As you get to the end of the year, you've still got that fixed cost inflation, but the energy piece has probably turned negative. So it's to get a feel for-
... the change in number over the course of the year.
Okay. Okay, understood. Okay. So, from a fixed post-cost perspective, we will be around maybe 4%-5% up year-over-year, yeah, which is, which is, you know, the salaries and then, maintenance and, and everything. So that's, that's, I guess, clear. And then if you go to the energy, energy piece, in 2021, we were EUR 2 billion, in 2022, we were at 3.2, and, this year we will be clearly, clearly below. So that means around maybe EUR 2.8 billion-EUR 2.9 billion on, on energy.
Right. Thank you very much.
Yeah. You're welcome.
Thank you, Harry. Next question comes from Gregor Kuglitsch from UBS.
Hey, Gregor.
Hi, Gregor.
Hi, good afternoon. So I've got two questions. I mean, sorry to come back onto the capital allocation point and maybe sort of tying it back into your comment around your own stock price. I guess it's sort of a comment slash a question, but obviously, your stock is on, I don't know, 5x or below, something like that, EBITDA. You're clearly frustrated by that, hence why you mentioned it. So I guess what I want to understand, how you therefore think about buying assets that, let's say, are substantially, you know, at a higher multiple than that, 'cause obviously, the opportunity cost would be to buy your own shares. So that's question one. And then question two is to come back to the guidance and so to your comments around hitting the top end, potentially of being in the upper half.
I guess mathematically, it implies sort of a bit of a slowdown into the fourth quarter in terms of, EBITDA growth or EBIT growth. I think in fact, at the midpoint, it's slightly negative. So I want to understand if there's anything we need to think about in the prior year comparison that would explain that, or any other reasons why that would be the case, considering the very strong quarter three you just, produced. Thank you.
Okay, Gregor, let me take the first one, and then René will take the second one. On the capital allocation, again, Gregor, you know, we stick exactly to what we have said. When it comes to acquisitions, you know, for us, to the earlier point from Sida, you know, yes, of course, there is an optimal size, there is an optimal multiples to your point.
But, you know, in a portfolio of businesses and in a global company, you cannot always say, "Okay, we don't have a..." To be very specific, we do not have an M&A criteria to say, it's if it's 5.1x, we don't move, or if it's 4.9x, we always move. You know, this is not how it works, guys. Then from our perspective, this is not practical, because in certain markets, you pay certain multiples. You know, this is, we have a global share price and a global valuation, but in one market, you pay a different multiple than you do in other markets. Look at our share price, you know, look at Indocement, that is probably listed.
Look at Accenture, that's probably listed. Look at Morocco, that's probably listed. You know, you have different multiples, it's not 5x, you know? So I cannot answer your question in a way to say everything that's 5.1, we then go into, dividends or share buybacks. That doesn't, that doesn't make any sense. And by the way, the other point you should not forget: What does it mean, this 5x or 6x or 4x? Careful. Our strategy implies if we do it right, we, we target significant synergy contributions, in those acquisitions. That is much different from embarking to other business, lines or other geographies. That's the pure reason why we also should be able to do 6x or 7x or even 8x acquisition, if after synergies, they are at 5x, great! That's fine.
But that's sometimes not so visible for all of you out there, but that is one of our M&A criteria, you know? In the end, after synergies and full integration, they should make a significant and most immediate contribution to our financial numbers, and that is the target with the capital allocation. On the guidance, I push over to René. All I'm saying is, guys, you know, bear with us. The year has twelve months, and we always need to keep something in our pocket. So, René, you go ahead.
Thanks, Dominik. So Gregor, I would agree with Dominik. He alluded already to we would be at, hopefully, at the upper end, yeah. And then you, as you know, you know, in November, December, is harsh—it can be harsh winter. It's a winter play, yeah? If I would be able to predict this, you know, I would not work here. I would do buy some options or something on weather. But that's tricky, but rest assured, you hear us both saying we are very comfortable to be at the upper end, and then we see how the year finishes, huh?
Gregor, you know-
There's not, like, an asset gain or property gain in the prior year, or something like that, and nothing like that?
No, there's not huge property gain, no.
No. No, no.
No.
No, it's purely operational. You're right, it's clear, you know, we are celebrating 150 years. You know, we are all ambitious guys, and now I let you dream, you know. Okay?
Thank you.
All right. Thanks, Gregor. Next question is from Brijesh Siya , from HSBC.
Hey, Brijesh.
Hi. Hi, good afternoon. I have two questions as well. So the first one is on the acquisitions and divestments. So you talked about EUR 2.5 billion in the divestment proceeds and EUR 1.5 billion acquisitions. Could you give us a little more flavor about what's the kind of average range of multiple that was, you've done it, and what's the kind of ROIC you are expecting, explicitly, the acquisitions you have made? And the second comment you made on the presentation, your focus markets. So could you please remind us of your strategy whether within and as you talked about in comment, that you would like to have in the markets where you have a significant position.
So that means that clearly, the markets where you are not number one or number two are kind of falling apart, and that's possibly the portfolio you are looking to kind of optimize in future.
Yeah, Brijesh. Maybe I'll start with the first one, but Vinnie can maybe jump on later on the if you go back to the chart of the 2.5 to 1.5, and I think you are absolutely right, Brijesh. You know, I think that's another angle to look at this, and that's clearly one of our criteria that we do. There was the earlier question from Gregor, you know, "What's the asset multiple you buy?" Well, Gregor, and I come back to your point, you know, if you buy at 7, 8 or even 9 times, you know, you can do that if you have two other assets that you can sell for 20 times.
You know, that is not a bad, that's not a bad financial deal in the end, you know? So I think in that respect, Brijesh, if you know, you know that the one of the largest chunk of the divestment of the EUR 2.5 was the divestment of the U.S. West Coast, and we did not disclose the full price, but we did say that in the end, this was a high, you know, in the high teens, multiple that we basically got for that one, if not more. So in that respect, I think that indicates to you a little bit. And we did not buy for those multiples. That's also clear.
So in that respect, that's also part of the trick, we could call multiple recycling. So, sell high, buy low, and then ... But again, that needs to be market specific, and that's what we are trying to do. And when it comes to the focus market, you know, it's very important for us that when we started this whole exercise, we went through all of our 60 markets and evaluated the market position.
Now, if you look at what we've done over the last three and a half years, you see that we have done very diligent acquisitions in those markets, where we either have a very strong position and we can build it out, or we have a market position that is not so great and we build it out, or we have a market position where we say, "Mm, difficult to really improve." We have to leave, huh? So take, for example, Spain. We said in the center and south of Spain, we had, oof, mediocre market position. We tried for many years to improve it. Didn't work. Sell it, huh?
Take Tanzania, traditionally a very strong market position, now a great opportunity to make the clear number one position by almost doubling the market position with the acquisition there in Tanzania. Fantastic. So that's that one. Indocement, already a good number two position, but a little bit getting behind after the number one position has done significant M&A. So we had to do a little bit of a catch-up exercise. We did this in two steps with the leasing and the Grobogan acquisition now. So really back to a very strong number two position. And that, Brijesh, we do market by market country, but also within countries to be.
That's what in the end, that's where you create the synergies, where you create the financial returns, and that's how the performance continues to improve.
Dominik, would you be tell, let us know what's the kind of multiple you have paid for the EUR 1.5 billion of acquisition?
That's clearly below 10. I'm not sure, but it's probably even. Again, this is market by market specific, but that must be way below 10.
That's way below 10. I would have said 6, 6, 7, 8 mark-
And again, you have to be careful, huh? Before synergies and after synergies, huh?
Okay. This is before synergy you are talking?
Yes.
Yes.
Okay. Thank you.
Okay, Brijeshe, thanks, for your question. Next question comes from, Yves Bromehead from Société Générale.
Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I'll limit it to as well. My first one is just, sorry if I'm already tilting towards 2024, but I just wanted to get your views on some of the large European infrastructure markets. I mean, if we look at the UK, seems like they're already pulling out of the northern part of HS2. In France, we've got the end of the Olympic works in around Paris, and Italy is sort of already struggling on the fiscal side. So I just wanted to get a bit of your initial views on sort of Europe infrastructure, especially for those big three markets. And then my second question, sorry, but more generally, you talked about sort of the rerating ambitions. And I just had a question.
You're already changing your divisional reporting, you're merging North and Southern Europe together. And if we look at the last sort of 3-5 years, listed European Building Materials companies have actually consistently changed their reporting structure, and provided less granularity on volumes and prices, as well as country level performance. And that's coinciding with the same time as valuation multiples are compressing, which is clearly different to the U.S. market. So I guess, what do you gain from doing that at the corporate level versus what it could essentially outweigh what investors may lose in transparency and forecasting ability to potentially rerate Heidelberg or the industry?
... Okay, let me take the first one, and then, René will talk a little bit, or together, we can talk a little bit about the second one. It's not an easy one to answer, huh? If, if we would exactly know how to rewrite that, that, that would be perfect, but that may be an element, so let's discuss that, yeah? On the infrastructure project, I'll take the three that you, on, on Italy, we stay optimistic. I think they have the funds from the EU. I think overall, I think we, we, we see the traction there. I think that's fine. Pricing will look at, long done from our perspective, that, that is not driving the pricing performance, anymore from, from our perspective. That is done, and there are other, projects around.
So overall, the Olympic impact from our perspective is not in 2023 a big carrier anyway. And on HS2, luckily or not for us, the elements between London and Birmingham is a far more important one than the one from Birmingham to Manchester. So sometimes in life you get lucky. You know, I'm not part of the UK government. They are trying to balance all the different things. So but, you know, there is still a lot of pipeline projects for the one from London to Birmingham, so let's finish that. That will take a couple of years before we get there. I've visited my fair couple of those construction sites. You talk massive volumes both in cement, but especially also in aggregate.
I think in that respect, we stay optimistic on the UK.
Yes, regarding the second question as well, the change in our reporting of our segment reporting in Europe, you have seen that we see change something on our management board level next year. There will be one person, Jon Morrish, responsible for now total Europe, yeah? And so we need to change the reporting requirements we have to do. So that's why we have decided, or let's say, we needed to do so. Now Europe is under Jon Morrish, and you know that our valuation is correlating with transparency. To be honest, you know, the last few years, we were very we published everything, volumes, everything. We are very transparent here in the calls. To be honest, would our valuation change if we now be in more detail with volume and pricing in Europe?
I have not seen this in the past. So, you can ask me a lot of questions. We are transparent and try to answer whatever we can. But the change of the segment has to do with our management reporting change. That's it.
If I may add one thing that I think I said in earlier calls, I've had the luxury of, or the beauty, of having looked at other capital-intensive industry in my past. The one thing that is certainly not driving value is pure volume focus, from our perspective. So yes, I get the transparency, historically that you are used to, but from my perspective, I'm paid for the final outcome, of the financial results. Clearly, volume, is in our industry, not the value driver of great performance. That at least my conviction. So in that respect, that's one of the reasons, and what I cannot do is tell the company internally with a different, mantra than I do externally.
If you then ask me all the volume questions, and then internally, I say, "Guys, we push the overall value with our customers that we create, and not just go into crazy," because we are getting, guys, that one thing I said in the past, and I think it's not yet fully understood, sorry to say that. The decarbonization gets us out of commodity. Not everybody decarbonizes at the same speed. That will fundamentally change the product portfolio of each of the competitor. And if the competitors drive different commercial strategies out of that, that will also then drive different values, but it has nothing to do with volumes. That's why it's not like we are stingy and don't want to give you any numbers.
It's really the strategies have changed in our case, and in that respect, you know, we do not view the company with volume focus only.
Okay. Thank you, Yves.
Thank you.
Hope that answers the question. Next question comes from Yuri Serov from Redburn. Hey, Yuri. How are you?
Hi. Well, two questions. So one, back to capital allocation, M&A, and I just want to make it very clear. You seem to be clarifying the position, but I, maybe I'm repeating what you already said, but, it will be helpful for all of us. So when Heidelberg, Heidelberg Materials Management previously was talking about large M&A, what investors heard was that you were saying no multi-billion deals. Today, you very clearly said no multi-billion and multi-country deals. Does that mean that if it's a single country, then a multi-billion deal is okay, is within the range, within the scope?
Yuri, sorry to correct you. I went back to my own remarks a couple of calls back, and I said that repeatedly. I said multi-billion, multi-country. So that's... Because the mantra of your questions in the past was always: Are you gonna repeat the next Italcementi? I said clearly, "No," and we want to stick to that no. So in that respect, that's what I remember in that respect very well, what I said. And again, to get to your point, if we talk about multi-billion deals in one country, the overriding principle remains the financial framework. We are not doing crazy things, even if it's true. That's what I said earlier. Even if it fits strategically super well, this, that does not erase.
I repeat, it does not erase our financial side of our brain. We are continuing to be very disciplined on these deals, and that's what it will be.
... Okay, that's clear. Next question is actually very simple. When I look at your results in North America, you show 1% like for like revenue growth, and from what we've heard from others and seen in the market, prices seem to be up by 10% or higher, which suggests to me that your volumes in Q3 were down by 10%. Is that correct? And how much of that was driven by the disruption of Mitchell startup?
Yeah, Yuri, well, not exactly 10%, but our volume were a little bit subdued. You are right. I think, well spotted, and I think there are three elements that I would contribute to that. One is the Mitchell startup. I think that's what we always said that did cost some volume in the switchover, which we knew internally, that was never a surprise to us, but it's something that has already closed in terms of we see clear improving trends in that respect. So that one, I think, is a tick in the box. Then it's the Northeast, you know, the flooding in New York and also the market weakness in the Pacific Northwest.
That's the second point, and that combines us then to the third point. Yes, we have a little bit a more Northern Tier footprint in the U.S., that exposes us to these different markets. So I think there is a little bit of a footprint issue combined with the weather effect. But for us, especially in those markets, and I can only obviously you have to believe what we at least see, whenever we benchmark market by market, wherever we can from a transparency perspective, we are spot on also in volume development. So there is no fundamental tweak in the wrong direction on volumes. All the volume deviations that I see is exactly what I just described, and most of those for me are one-offs, also, especially in the case of Mitchell.
For us, no, no reason for any concern, rather upsides for 2024.
Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you, Yuri. The next in line is David O'Brien from Goodbody.
Hey, David.
Hi, David.
Hey, how are you? Afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. If I could just extend, I think it was Elodie at the very start, you were talking about stabilization in European trends and then, and talking about some of the infrastructure projects. You were good enough to give us your outlook for 2024 North American volumes. Overall, what should we expect for volume performance in 2024 in Europe? And then secondly, you know, as you already pointed to, volume is kind of weak on both sides of the Atlantic. Are products with enhanced sustainability characteristics materially outperforming those headline volume numbers?
Okay. Let me go to the first one, stabilization in Europe. You know, Europe is a very diverse set of countries. You have very different developments on the, for us, new Europe, which is then Western Southern Europe and NEECA as of next year. That then will span all the way from the UK down to Italy, up to Northern Europe, all the way to the east. So I think in that respect, there is not one answer on volume development. In fact, we do see some volume recovery in the eastern parts of Europe that we have a couple of good volume developments in some of our core markets already now. There is clear stabilization coming in that respect. In Western Southern Europe, it's a mixed bag.
I would hope the worst is over in terms of volume decline, that we see some stabilization. When and to what extent we see some recovery in some of the markets will, from my perspective, very much depend on the psychology around the interest rate decisions of the ECB. If the ECB, and I think the likelihood of that has clearly gone up in the past couple of days and weeks, would indicate that they are done with interest rate hikes or even indicate that they would think about small decline in interest rates, then I would be far more hopeful in terms of volume development, because that would then also reenergize the interest sensitive private side of things and commercial side of things.
So, with that, you know, also in the past, the world has built at interest rate levels of 4%-5%. The world has built at interest rates level of 10%. The market has just got to customize it, and that's why we need to come to an end. Everybody hopes to get a better view tomorrow, and that's been the delicate piece in Europe. But I see good indications from the central banks that may come, and in terms of interest rate hikes. So I'm actually seeing some stabilization of volumes in Europe and in part, in some markets, as I said, already some pickup. On sustainability, absolutely. You know, we are transparent around our sustainable revenues.
We'll give you the full year numbers again, in the full year. We see good traction, in volumes there, better than the overall markets. So, I think that was behind your question, whether they are performing better than the market yet. So it's not like I was saying the revenues declined by 10 or 15%. No, it's rather the opposite. But obviously, they are also coming from a still smaller basis. So in that respect, from our perspective, we get clear traction on growing our product portfolio on the sustainability side, and we'll obviously continue to do so as we go into the ramp up of Brevik, by the end of 2024, beginning of 2025.... Great, thanks, Dominik.
Thanks, David. Next in line is Yassine Touahri from Onfield Research. Yassine, hello?
Yes. Hello, good afternoon.
Hi.
So we just have one question. And I think it's like, you're mentioning in your slides that any acquisition that you do needs to fulfill all financial criteria for MNA. And I think that when discussing with your shareholder, there was some concern about you potentially doing this bid at a $38 per share on Summit Materials. And I think I just wanted to understand, what are those financial criteria? Is it the 10% return on invested capital that you're targeting for 2025? Is it the multiple after synergies? Is it the comparison with your share price?
I think the more detail you give on your financial criteria and how you establish discipline, the more useful it will be to reassure your shareholder.
Yeah, maybe I let René answer first, and then I'll, I'll give you my color also on top, Yassine. Thanks.
Yassine, our financial criteria for M&A are okay, but, like, any acquisition needs to contribute immediately to our net profit. That's clear. Number two, after full integration, realizing all the synergies, it should be around our ROI target of 10%. Yeah, these are our two main targets. Yeah, and then obviously, we have the other targets of cash conversion and everything that's clear, that any acquisition should as well spit out 50% or 45% cash conversion. Then we have obviously the sustainability piece. Yeah, okay, that's not financial, but that has to, you know, so we have financial plus sustainability. These are the core values of the company that needs to contribute to our sustainability strategy. That's very, very clear, yeah.
And then obviously, as Dominik, it would be strategic fit, no question, we would not buy something cheap if it doesn't fit to the strategy, clear. So we would only buy something which fully fits what we always said. And as I said, the big financials are ROI, around 10% after a full potential and synergies and the net profit contribution.
Yeah. And I think, Yassine, maybe just from my end, I think it's important to understand that again, I said that earlier, you know, what's behind this whole portfolio idea, and the, the idea of focus on the markets where we are focused, it's all about synergies. And that's the reason why I'm also very cautious to say even a 10x multiple acquisition can be a good deal in the financial framework that René was just saying, because if you create massive synergies, that is value creating. That is value creating, also under very strict financial discipline. And I know that sometimes it's difficult to look at this from the outside, because it's difficult for you to assess, especially in the smaller and mid-sized deals, you know, yes, what multiple have you paid? You know, how many, how many synergies did you get?
What's the final multiple after synergies? How does that compare to your own multiple? And then again, it's about multiple recycling to what I said earlier, you know, we need to, we are paid for making this mixed picture a very convincing proposal to our shareholders, and we remain stubbornly focused on doing that. And I think the look back over the last three years, René has shared with you the figures. We are humble guys, but we should also be clear that that was not all that bad.
Thank you very much.
All right. Thanks, Yassine. Next in line is Ross Harvey from Davy.
Hey, Ross.
Hi, Ross.
Hi, thanks very much. Firstly, just another clarification, I'm sorry about this, about the M&A framework. Just wondering, you mentioned that a deal would be financed through disposal proceeds and Sustainability-Linked Bonds. But just to clarify, does that mean that you wouldn't consider at this moment in time raising equity for an acquisition? And secondly, I was hoping you might provide more of an update on the CCUS project. Obviously, Brevik is coming live next year, and I'm just wondering if the metrics in terms of margin opportunity that you provided last year at Capital Markets Day are those still realistic? Thanks.
Ross, thank you very much. You get the shortest answer of the day. No, we are clearly not looking to raise equity through any acquisitions. If that was on your mind, good that you asked the question. Clear, no. On CCUS, sorry, we can't do... You know, it's already full, and you have a lot of questions. We can only do so much in a Q3 call. We'll continue to keep you updated on CCUS, the Brevik project ex-advance as well. I'm again in Brevik tomorrow. So, the project advances as planned, and you know, by the end of 2024, we should get to the point where we capture the CO2. That's the current fighting target, and that's what we are striving for.
And then obviously, we will also get additional data points on whether we make this a successful business case. And I tell you, like we did say in the past, from our internal projections, this will be a very convincing business case. But fair enough, we need to prove that to you and others... that it will be, but you know, jumping the ship sometimes is also too late. So we are moving in the right direction, and we'll lift as we go along the curtain a little bit more, a little bit more, a little bit more. But for us, this remains a very important strategic and financial. Same idea, guys, nah?
Not only just because, you know, we think strategically this is not a great differentiator, no, strategically and financially, this must be a very convincing target, and that's exactly what René will show. And rest assured, we are razor sharply focused on delivering that.
Great. And because it was a very short answer—thank you. Because it's a very short answer, can I just double check then, what, what level of leverage would you move up to post-deal? Or what's the maximum that you would tolerate? Would it be 2x, or is it above that?
Guys, we have given you the 1.5, 2.2. And whether, you know, it's, can we shoot up to 2.1 or 2.2? Maybe. Can we go below 1.5, down to 1.3? Maybe. But are we gonna go up to 3 or 3.5? No! Clear, no.
Thank you very much.
Okay. Very clear. We come to the last three questioners. One is Tobias Woerner from Jefferies.
Hi, Tobias.
Hello.
Yes, yes, hi, thanks for taking my questions. 2, if I may. Number one, the acquisition, the plant acquisition in Indonesia, maybe you can give us a little bit more flavor in terms of margins, how it compares to yours, and capacity utilization versus yours, for us to just get a sense of how that flows through. And just confirm, you said close date by Q4. Was that it? And then secondly, just to ask the CCS question a little bit differently, I mean, I think, let's say in October 2021 was trough fear or peak fear in context of the CapEx. The industry would have to swallow from a sustainability point of view or from a decarbonization point of view.
Now, you've, you've been successful with a lot of, of the projects, in Europe now. What level of, grants, subsidies in percentage terms? Is it similar to what you mentioned in the CMD? Thank you.
Okay, Tobias, let me take the first one, and then Röbi will take the second one, as he has also the answer to the question in the CMD. On Indonesia, as we did not disclose any financial years. I ask for your understanding that we cannot because that's part of the agreement with the seller. So I can't give you any very specific numbers, but what I can say is, you know that we did mention that in the press release, the plant was only ramping up, nah? It was only opened last year, it was not at its full capacity.
So whatever we have paid as, you know, on a multiple on EBITDA, that's interesting, but it's not very valuable because they were just ramping up in terms of capacity. That's another nice example, you know. Maybe we have paid more than 5x multiple for that, but sorry, the asset was only X amount utilized, so the multiple it has zero value at all in that respect. What is important for us is the following, and I think we've indicated, and Tobias, you know the business quite well in Indonesia. We have been... Java is huge, huh? All the way, all the way from Jakarta to the west and Bali to the east.
You know, we've done earlier in the year or last year, this leasing exercise in East Java is coming from the east, and then we had the white spot in the middle. And very specifically, what we have done in the past years, if not decades, is transport from West Java, all of our nice products into Central Java. And those of you who have done the travel, good luck, it shows you that's a lot of distance you have to travel, and that adds cost, especially if there are local competitors who don't pay that. Now, we have a local asset that produces locally, and now all of you dream about synergies again. Here we go again.
So this is a fantastic asset addition to Indocement, because it really drives massive synergies, both in terms of asset utilization and getting rid of our logistical costs, and we don't talk single digit EUR millions there, huh? That is significant logistics costs that you incur to serve the market, the growing market in Central Java. CCS, Röbi?
Tobias, just to confirm, we are still calculating the number we have announced, 50% roughly funding. One project is more, one project is less, but we ran the exercise to be sure, if we need to change something or not. We ran this a few weeks ago, and we still can confirm, that the, this is 50%, we are, roughly right.
Great. Thanks a lot.
Thanks, Tobias.
Thank you.
So we have one dropout. This will be the last question from Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq from Virtuo.
Hi, Jean.
Do you hear me?
Yes, hello.
Yes, yes.
Yes, Christoph-
Sorry, from CIC, sorry.
Yes, from CIC. Guten tag, good afternoon. Two questions for me, so I fragen. First, in term of, transparency and rebounding of the last questions, the like-for-like growth over the third Q was, one point six percent. Could we have another magnitude of magnitude of the pricing effects, maybe? And second question: Do you continue, to, buy your CO2 rights in Europe, or did you stop? There is a rumor that, the German producer stopped buying, rights. Can you confirm or comment? Many thanks.
The second question now regarding the CO2 certificates. As we all may say, we are, we have no need to buy CO2 certificates right now. So the answer to your question is, no, we are not buying anything because we are long. And what was the first question you were asking about, about pricing? To be honest, we are not, we are in that quarterly statement, we are not commenting on pricing. You have seen in our cost, which price of our cost was, nicely positive. So you can think that the prices to versus prior year are okay. And then if you compare it to the quarters below, before, you're not losing any pricing momentum currently.
Oh, okay. It's good information.
Yeah.
Many thanks.
Hello. Yes, welcome.
All right. Thanks, Christoph. I think this concludes our call. Thank you very much for your questions. As always, thanks, Dominik, and thanks, René, for providing such detailed answers. As always, we will be quite busy now after the call, going on the road. We'll be with CEO in the U.S., Toronto, Chicago, and New York. Then we will attend a couple of conferences, UBS conference in London, Barclays ESG conference in London, BofA conference in London, and the Berenberg Pennyh ill conference. So stay tuned. I hope to see you all there. Thanks for dialing in. Bye-bye.
Thanks, guys. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.