Infineon Technologies AG (ETR:IFX)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2024

Aug 5, 2024

Speaker 5

Thank you for logging in. Good morning, welcome listeners.

We said that 2024 would be your transition for Infineon, and that is exactly what it has turned out to be. We can see the cycle bottoming out, and some of our target markets are now in a phase of gradual recovery. Together with our structural growth drivers, this is leading to a slight improvement in revenue and segment results in the current second half of our fiscal year. Our outlook for the fiscal year 2024 as a whole is within the range forecast so far. In the third quarter of our fiscal year, Infineon achieved revenue of EUR 3.72 billion, a slight increase by 2%. This was somewhat weaker than expected because some deliveries of products worth mid-double-digit million euro figure has been shifted just into the fourth quarter. The segment result was slightly better than expected. It was EUR 734 million.

The segment result margin rose from 19.5% in the previous quarter to 19.8%. In the current phase of the semiconductor cycle, this is a sound value, which is fully within the framework of our target business model. The slight improvement is also due to higher revenue and better cost efficiency. The margin was pulled down on the other hand, as expected, by existing increased idle costs. Order books of confirmed and unconfirmed orders at the end of June was EUR 22 billion. The backlog of our inventory is 180 days, which is constant. In times of inventories that remain available in most delivery chains, many customers order at short notice. Orders with long lead times have declined. Also, we're seeing more turns. These are orders which are converted in the same quarter and delivered, and they also appear as revenue in our balance sheet at short notice as well.

Free cash flow in the third quarter improved to EUR 393 million. In the previous quarter, it was EUR 82 million. Now, the results of the four divisions in the third quarter. Revenue in the Automotive segment was EUR 2.112 billion, 2% more than the previous quarter. Greater demand for microcontrollers had a positive effect, but the digestion of stocks in classic automobile applications had a subduing effect. The segment result improved to EUR 537 million. The segment result margin was 25.4%, compared to 24.6% in the previous quarter. In the demand for automotive semiconductors, we see two contrasting forces. On the one hand, the lasting correction of inventories.

On the other hand, the structural increase in value of semiconductors per vehicle. In this demand environment, also favored by our lasting market share gains, we expect for our Automotive business in fiscal 2024 that there will be an increase in revenue by about 3%.

In the worldwide use of electric vehicles, the regional differences in China demand is continuing, and that favors us because we're number one on the automotive market there. In the Western markets, on the other hand, the demand is somewhat subdued, and we therefore expect that the strict EU emission targets of 2025 and the introduction of new, more affordable models in the next few years will provide positive impulses. In the meantime, hybrid cars are experiencing a comeback, and our business with silicon solutions is benefiting from that. At the same time, we're expanding our business with silicon carbide solutions. In the past quarter, we recorded some major design wins by American manufacturers of electric vehicles and also a German car supplier. Together, the design wins have a volume of more than EUR 1 billion.

What's particularly encouraging is that a considerable part of this has been recovered from competitors thanks to better technical properties of our solutions and our ability to deliver. Our leading technological position is with a portfolio of all the relevant semiconductor technologies: silicon, silicon carbide, and gallium nitride, enabling us to develop new concepts such as our HybridPACK Drive module fusion, which combines silicon and silicon carbide to offer our customers the ideal price-to-performance ratio. We're also expanding our offer for electromobility, which goes far beyond our power semiconductors. The market for sensor solutions for hybrid and electric vehicles is growing rapidly, and together with the leading automotive system partners, Swoboda from Bavaria, we have developed a powerful sensor for measuring current in the vehicle. The partnership combines Infineon's current sensor chips with Swoboda's competence in developing and industrializing sensor modules.

With this cooperation, we're accelerating the market's launch of particularly compact inverters and smart battery management systems. With the next generation of our AURIX microcontroller family, we're also bringing artificial intelligence to the battery. It will be able to carry out complex algorithms for battery diagnosis, which will make it possible to forecast the useful life of the battery exactly. Now, Green Industrial Power. The division explains revenue of EUR 475 million in the third quarter, which meant that revenue compared to the previous quarter was virtually unchanged. The segment result was EUR 88 million. The segment result margin was 18.5%, falling from 19% in the March quarter. Inventories remain high along the entire industrial supply chain. Final demand demonstrates different patterns, and we expect that the recovery will also be bifurcated. In particular, in the field of renewable energy, the structural growth remains strong.

The S&P analysts expect that installation of solar panels this year will increase by a total of 25% globally, with wind power plants to a growth rate in the high 10% range forecast. As soon as inventories have normalized, the growth dynamic will return in these fields of application. Also, the demand for current for charging stations for electric vehicles, and especially for data centers, is increasing demand for semiconductors along the entire power chain. In contrast, the demand for industrial core applications, such as automation and drives, is somewhat weak at present. Therefore, we expect that the development will remain weak for some time. A few days ago, we recorded design wins for a central component for the energy turnaround, the grid storage systems. The Japanese DAIHEN Corporation will use a CoolSiC MOSFET 2 kV module, which allows high voltage and excellent heat dissipation and high power density.

Introducing the 2 kV class has been an example of pioneering work in the industry by Infineon. We remain convinced of the great potential for growth for our silicon carbide solutions. We confirm our revenue growth target for fiscal 2024, namely about 20% growth to around EUR 600 million for the entire company. Focus is the ramp-up of our manufacturing at the site in Kulim, Malaysia, and the expected conversion to the 200 mm technology. With both projects, we are making good progress. Next Thursday, on the 8th of August, we are opening our new manufacturing module in Kulim, which supplements a long-term competence center for compound semiconductors in Villach. The mega fab in Kulim on the greenfield site offers competitive labor costs and considerable effects of scale, which will strengthen our competitive position for silicon carbide. Infineon has all the success factors for the silicon carbide business.

A globally diversified supply network ensures our supply of raw materials. The first-class trench architecture gives us benefits in power and productivity in chip manufacturing. We have the most comprehensive packaging module offer and the broadest customer pool in the field of automotive industry and renewable energies. In cooperation with our customers, it benefits our excellent system understanding. Our cost-efficient, highly resilient manufacturing can be upscaled in the future depending on the market demand. Thanks to the unique combination of these factors, Infineon is in the best possible position for a very successful business with power systems. Let's turn to the Power & Sensor Systems segment. Revenue in the third quarter was EUR 749 million, which was an increase by 5% compared to the previous quarter. As expected, the June quarter saw the turning point after a long downward trend we'd seen for six successive quarters.

The segment result was EUR 70 million. The segment result margin was 9.3%, following 9% in the previous quarter. Rising costs from capital underutilization and manufacturing curbed profitability. In most consumer computer and communication markets, we have passed the bottom of the trough. The recovery is slow because, first of all, inventories need to be digested, but business is benefited by the following drivers. Firstly, and I stress this, the demand for highly efficient power supply solutions for AI data centers. We are ramping up the management of our specialized modules. Initially, we also have a comprehensive relevant roadmap for improving the energy efficiency of modules to serve the demand for higher computing power. In the next few years, we're going to get a number of market launches thanks to our broadly based clientele.

This puts us in the best way to improve our revenue for the power supply solution for our data centers in fiscal 2025. We expect to double it, in fact. In the next two to three years, we should probably exceed the EUR 1 billion threshold. Above the demand of semiconductors in power supplies for AI servers, we're also recording great customer interest for our extensive double-membrane microphones. The outstanding signal-to-noise ratio in AI applications offers many advantages. It also enables waterproof use. This provides a cost of added value, and we've had some major design wins from leading manufacturers. There's also the general cover smartphone demand, which will support the development of our revenue. In addition, we are ramping up the production of our own package solutions, which means that we shall achieve an increase in the semiconductor value for our customers.

Now, the Connected Secure Systems segment revenue was EUR 366 million, almost unchanged compared to the March quarter. The segment result was EUR 42 million, and the segment margin remained at 11.5%, the same level as the previous quarter's level, which was 11.3%. The demand in the markets for IoT and security solutions has also passed the bottom of the trough. Inventories at distributors have dropped in the June quarter. This opens the way for a slight cyclical recovery in the second half of 2024. As in previous quarterly announcements, as we explained, the use of artificial intelligence has been shifted more and more to the devices themselves, which offers advantages regarding latency, power consumption, and data protection. In view of the strongly growing market for edge AI solutions and other AI applications at the location where they're used, we recently launched an extensive evaluation kit.

It's for embedded edge AI and machine learning systems and offers all the tools that are needed for the development of smart consumer, smart home, and IoT applications. The kit processes the data directly at the sensor data source, and compared to cloud-centered solution architectures, it offers improved real-time solutions with greater energy efficiency. Listeners, I'll come to the outlook. As I said at the beginning, we're in a phase of bottoming out. The conditions for our industry are improving slowly. The greater part of the correction is behind us, but a complete recovery is still not in sight. Looking forward, the recovery paths of the different target markets will vary considerably. Some markets already experience a cyclical upswing, such as smartphones. In others, the preferences of the consumers are changing from pure electric to hybrid vehicles.

Again, we see a shortage of demand in the field of classic industrial and automotive applications. Then there are established and newly arising structural growth markets, which include renewable energies, power supplies for AI data centers, and edge AI. In such a market environment, a well-diversified business portfolio is decisive for a company's success. Looking beyond the present transition phase, we see structural growth chances for Infineon, which comes in particularly in our five key applications: electromobility, automated driving, renewable energies, AI and computer centers, and IoT. In the current fourth quarter of our fiscal year, we expect a revenue of about EUR 4 billion, which is 5% more than in the previous quarter. Revenue will probably increase in all four divisions. Our forecast is based on an exchange of the U.S. dollars to the euro of 1.1, which is unchanged.

With the forecast revenue, the segment result margin should be about 20%. For fiscal 2024 as a whole, we can confirm our guidance. It has been the range forecast so far, and in view of the current market conditions, we expect revenue of about EUR 15 billion, formerly EUR 15.1 billion, EUR ±400 million. At the same time, we're expecting a segment result margin of 20%, which is unchanged. This includes a burden of cyclical idle costs amounting to 1,450 basis points. The investments will probably remain unchanged at EUR 2.8 billion. The investment in large front-end buildings and the purchase of GaN Systems, the free cash adjusted for those purchases, should be about EUR 1.5 billion, which is about 10% of the forecast revenue for the year. For the adjusted reported free cash flow, we looked at a level of about EUR -200 million.

Without paying the purchase price for the acquired GaN Systems, the reported free cash flow would probably have been EUR 600 million. Apart from managing the current demand cycle, in the course of our structural improvement program, Step Up, we'll continue to work on improving our competitiveness. Our aim is to achieve a positive effect on the segment result with high triple-digit million euro figures per year. We expect that the full financial effect will be felt in the first half of our 2027 fiscal year. At present, we are preparing to implement the program measures in the field of manufacturing productivity, portfolio management, price quality, and operating cost optimization. We want to improve our cost structures without letting opportunities in the market slip through our fingers. Therefore, we shall maintain our investment levels in research and development and digitalization.

We want to make innovation much more quickly converted into customer advantage, but in the course of our portfolio management, we shall concentrate those resources and products which are particularly promising. Viewers, that is the end of my remarks, and together with Sven Schneider, I am now happy to take your questions.

Operator

[Foreign language] Christof Rührmair [Foreign language] dpa . [Foreign language] .

Christof Rührmair
Reporter, dpa

[Foreign language] .

Jochen Hanebeck
CEO, Infineon

[Foreign language] .

Speaker 5

Y es, I'll be happy to take that. The connection wasn't very good, but I think you're asking about more details on our Step Up program. So once again, what is Step Up about? Step Up is about improving our structural competitiveness. We see a need to do this, even if at the end of the day the most important thing for Infineon's business success will be to have new, innovative, differentiating products on the market. Nevertheless, at the same time, we need to work on our competitiveness. There, as I said last time, we have got some focal points.

First of all, manufacturing productivity, also efficiency in the central and support functions, which has something to do with portfolio management, and it has something to do with price, quality, and consistency. Of course, at present, it's difficult to get higher prices in the market, but we see potential in the field of quality, price quality, and price consistency. Some of these steps, but this is the smallest point by far, is concerned with jobs and positions. This morning, we informed the workforce that globally we are intending to shed 1,400 jobs, and 1,400 further jobs will be transferred. All in all, this figure is well below 5% of our global workforce. In order to round off the picture here in Germany, for example, in the last five years, we've created 3,000 new jobs. As announced, we shall create a further new thousand jobs in Dresden.

In R&D, something in addition will come in Germany as well. The precise figures on the original sites, that will be your next question, I must say that at present we want to inform all the employees on the spot first of all, so I shall not add anything more to the two figures: 1,400 jobs lost and 1,400 jobs which could be transferred. It's a difficult step for me and the entire management board team. We didn't make it easy for ourselves, and it's not going to be a sweeping move. We looked at all the jobs specifically and checked what job is going to be most competitive and future-proof in which site. In Germany, we can rule out the possibility of sackings and redundancies, and we're being very socially responsible. If I can follow up on this question.

In Regensburg, it has been known 400 was the figure mentioned there. Can you confirm that? The next question comes from Joachim Hofer from Handelsblatt.

Joachim Hofer
Analyst, Handelsblatt

[Foreign language]?

Jochen Hanebeck
CEO, Infineon

[Foreign language] .

Joachim Hofer
Analyst, Handelsblatt

[Foreign language]?

Jochen Hanebeck
CEO, Infineon

Also, 1,400 Stellen fallen global weg.

Speaker 5

1,400 jobs are being dropped globally and 1,400 being shifted. This applies to all high-wage countries, not from North America to Asia, where we've identified functions which can be performed better or more cost-efficiently in best-cost countries. They can be digitalized. But we said this last time, our order is that, first of all, we look at what activities can perhaps be dispensed with because they don't produce much added value, what activities can be digitalized, and then the next category is what functions can be transferred.

Joachim Hofer
Analyst, Handelsblatt

[Foreign language] ?

Jochen Hanebeck
CEO, Infineon

[Foreign language] .

Speaker 5

No, above all, it will be internally. And these are indeed countries where we're already active because what's important to us is that transfers should be successful. And of course, there will always be a certain risk in a transfer. But all the sites where we're already active are involved, and the transfer risk will be kept to a minimum.

Joachim Hofer
Analyst, Handelsblatt

[Foreign language] .

Jochen Hanebeck
CEO, Infineon

[Foreign language] .

Speaker 6

Over to Sven Schneider, over to Regensburg. Regensburg is and will remain to be a central site for Infineon. We believe that with this front-end, the eight-inch front-end, we have an asset in our hands, and we will align this towards more innovation, meaning that this site will be secured for a number of years. It's a question in Regensburg of the jobs to be shed that refers to assembly lines, packaging lines.

In the past, we tried out lots of things, innovation, automation; however, that simply doesn't work. We had to be convinced of that fact. For this reason, the packaging lines are going to be outsourced or transferred, leading to efficiency potential in other areas in Regensburg. But what we want to do is make sure that this site is future-proof. Sven Schneider, hello Mr. Hofer, you asked about idle costs for the entire year. It's an estimated EUR 800 million. Approximately 60% of this was in the second half of the year, and 40% was in the first half of the year. If you compare this with the previous year, it was EUR 450 million. You can see there's a difference. So if we compare this with the structural idle costs, so idle costs that a company always has, it's approximately EUR 150 million.

That's a significant load of EUR 650 million, which corresponds approximately to 4.5% points in the margin for the entire year. Thank you very much.

Operator

[Foreign language] .

Speaker 6

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I'd now like to pass the floor back to Jochen Hanebeck.

Jochen Hanebeck
CEO, Infineon

[Foreign language] .

Speaker 5

Gladly, listeners, finally, I'll sum up. In the third quarter of our fiscal year 2024, we were able to record slight improvements both in revenue and profitability. In the fourth quarter, we're expecting further improvements supported by the gradual recovery of seasonality and structural growth. Recovery in demand has begun at a modest speed and is looking different on the various markets. Nevertheless, our structural growth drivers are intact. Looking forward, we tend to be very confident.

The launch of the new silicon carbide manufacturing module in Kulim is imminent, and the production of power supply solutions for AI data centers is being ramped up. At the same time, with Step Up, we're making good progress, which means that we should be able to strengthen our profitability in the years ahead. Thank you for your interest. We wish all of you a very pleasant summer, and we look forward to hearing from you again in November at the latest for the annual figures. Goodbye.

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