Instone Real Estate Group SE (ETR:INS)
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May 7, 2026, 5:35 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q1 2026

May 7, 2026

Operator

At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Burkhard Sawazki, Head of IR and Capital Market Communication and Strategy. Please go ahead.

Burkhard Sawazki
Head of IR and Capital Market Communication and Strategy, Instone

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our Q1 2026 earnings call. Our CEO, Kruno Crepulja, and our CFO, David Dreyfus, will walk you through our presentation and give you an update on our current business performance and our outlook. As usual, this will be followed by Q&A session. With this, I would like to hand over directly to Kruno.

Kruno Crepulja
CEO, Instone

Hello, everyone and t hank you for joining our Q1 earnings call. Looking at the overall picture, I think it is fair to say that we have a solid start to the year. The first quarter is traditionally marked by weaker seasonality and t he conflict in the Middle East has certainly had a negative short-term impact, which should not come as a surprise. A key achievement was the good progress we made in institutional deals. This gives us confidence that the recovery and demand remains on track. In our retail business, January and February are generally quiet months following a very busy year-end period. The recovery in demand during March and April was affected by increased uncertainty, although this has already begun to normalize again.

One key aspect worth highlighting is that the leading indicators of underlying demand have shown a steady year-on-year improvement, even though the conversion rate in March and April was lower. Neverthless, the high level of reservations gives us confidence that there will be catch-up effects once geopolitical tensions ease. Sentiment has already started to improve somewhat. In the coming months, we also expect an additional boost from the planned sales starts of new projects. In our institutional business, we have made very good progress. At this relatively early stage of the year, we are in advanced negotiations for two deals with a total volume of approximately EUR 80 million. We expect these transactions to be signed shortly, which would already represent an important milestone toward our full-year sales target. We are also in discussions regarding further institutional transactions.

Overall, this positive momentum reinforces our confidence that despite short-term disruptions, the recovery and demand is continuing. Another area impacted by the Middle East crisis is construction costs. The rise in crude oil prices is, of course, having an impact on certain oil-based and energy-intensive building materials. Nevertheless, we remain confident that we will stay well within our overall cost budgets for 2026. This is supported by prudent cost assumptions and clearly by our strong market position. Let us now take a brief look at our financial KPIs for the first quarter of 2026. Adjusted revenues amounted to EUR 79.3 million. The colder than usual winter had a negative impact on construction output, but we expect this to be caught up in the coming month. We anticipate significantly higher revenues in the upcoming quarters, supported by rising sales.

Our gross margin remained at a very healthy level of 27.6%, which clearly represents a benchmark in our industry. While this level should not be extrapolated, we are very comfortable with our full-year target of more than 24%. Adjusted earnings after tax totaled EUR 0.9 million. This figure is distorted by the low top line in Q1. Accordingly, we expect a significant improvement as revenues rise and operating leverage unfolds in the coming quarters. Sales volume was broadly stable at EUR 41.7 million. In our private customer business, sales increased by 5.9% year-on-year, despite the short-term negative impact from the macro environment. Supported by sales launches and our institutional business, we expect a marked acceleration in growth as of Q2. As an additional value indicator, tangible book value per share stood at EUR 14.50.

Based on business performance in the first few months of the year and the continued positive underlying trend in demand indicators, we confirm our guidance for 2026. We expect revenues of EUR 550 million-EUR 600 million, a gross margin of more than 24%, and adjusted net earnings of EUR 35 million-EUR 40 million. As a leading indicator for our business, we expect sales to increase to EUR 650 million-EUR 750 million. There remains a prolonged or intensified crisis in the Middle East, which has already lasted longer than most of us initially expected. We cannot ignore the fact that a certain stabilization of the macro environment remains a key factor for the short-term development of our business. Turning to slide four in our presentation.

Our sales ratio shown in the upper chart reflects the combined effects of weaker seasonality at the beginning of the year and the recent dip caused by geopolitical tensions. This temporary decline has been amplified by increased uncertainty on the banking side, with mortgage approval processes currently taking much longer. Sales in our private customer business are nonetheless up by roughly 6% year-on-year. The development of underlying demand, as reflected by our lead indicators, looks considerably stronger. Reservations are significantly above the levels of previous year. We assume that a large portion of this demand will materialize once tensions in the Middle East ease. We have already observed some improvement in sentiment following the shock in March. In addition, we expect a meaningful boost from the new supply recently brought to the market.

All of these products are ideally aligned with attractive tax incentive schemes for energy-efficient new builds. The first sales launches, such as the second tranche of our Duisburg project near Düsseldorf, via our subsidiary, nyoo, have already generated a high number of reservations within just a few weeks. This is very encouraging. The coming months are expected to be very busy, with several upcoming launches that should significantly accelerate our sales momentum. A particularly positive development is the progress on the institutional side, which is exceeding our expectations from the beginning of the year. We are close to signing of two transactions with a total volume of around EUR 80 million. This represents a major step towards our full [audio distortion] early stage in the year. As you know, institutional business is typically skewed towards the second half of the year.

We are also in discussions regarding additional transactions, including potential JV partnerships with international investors. Overall, we are seeing encouraging momentum which further supports our full- year sales outlook. On slides five and six , we provide an overview of the key market indicators relevant to our business. Despite heightened macro uncertainty and continued interest rate volatility, prices for new builds in Germany's top seven cities are at least stable or moderately increasing, underscoring the resilience of this asset class. This assessment is consistent with our own on-the-ground experience. We have already started to implement selective price adjustments in certain projects aimed at buy-to-let investors. The persistent scarcity of residential space in metropolitan areas, combined with sustained healthy rental growth, driver of positive underlying market dynamics. This is especially true for high-quality energy-efficient new builds.

The price premium for energy-efficient buildings continues to rise, and the renewed energy crisis is likely to further reinforce this trend. The lower chart shows rental growth in the top cities based on data from bulwiengesa. While growth has moderated from elevated levels, it remains on a robust long-term upward trajectory. Slide six illustrates construction price inflation over time. The latest data from the Federal Statistical Office confirms a broadly stable trend over recent quarters. These figures do not yet reflect the most recent increase in oil prices, which is already affecting certain oil-related building materials. Nevertheless, as also evidenced by our Q1 margin, we remain well-positioned to outperform the market. So far this year, costs have remained below our internal projections with only limited inflation. Our strong market position and bargaining power with mid-sized construction companies are key factors.

Nonetheless, we should be realistic and prepare also for rising construction costs as of next year. Although capacity utilization in the industry is currently very low, a significant portion of this year's construction volume has already been secured. Turning to slide seven. Our gross development value, GDV, remained broadly stable at EUR 7 billion during the quarter, excluding our share in joint ventures. The share of projects in pre-sales continues to increase, reflecting our high level of land acquisitions. The operational risk profile remains very low, with 89% of units under construction already been sold. The pre-sold volume of EUR 2.7 billion provides high visibility for future revenues and cash flows. Revenue not yet recognized amounts to approximately EUR 435 million. We continue to create value through our business model by securing building rights for our land bank over time.

Over the past 12 months, we have made further progress on approvals, increasing our zoned land bank to around EUR 2 billion. This enhances our flexibility and allows us to bring additional product to market as soon as demand strengthens further, including the institutional segment. Since the beginning of 2025, we have secured land plots for projects with a GDV of around EUR 1.3 billion, of which approximately EUR 500 million are allocated to our JV business. These JV projects are accounted for at equity and under our current definition are not included in the EUR 7 billion GDV figure, which reflects only fully consolidated projects. The Instone share of these JV projects now exceeds EUR 800 million. We remain active on the acquisition side with an extensive pipeline.

Further land acquisitions are expected in the coming months, and w e are on track to acquire projects with a total GDV of at least EUR 2 billion by the end of 2026. As stated previously, we see a very attractive window of opportunity given increased supply and still limited competition. The current macro environment may further support this dynamic. We continue to prioritize shorter duration projects, which should further strengthen our growth profile over the next two to three years. With that, I would now like to hand over to David for the financial section of the presentation.

David Dreyfus
CFO, Instone

Thank you, Kruno. Let me now walk you through our Q1 2026 results in a bit more detail, starting with our adjusted results of operations on slide nine. In Q1, our adjusted revenues were still below the prior year level, largely due to the comparatively cold winter in Germany and the resulting lower construction output. This will not affect our full- year targets. Together with our construction partners, we have put plans in place to ensure that this work is made up over the course of the year. Higher construction output, combined with increasing revenue contribution from accelerating sales, is expected to lead to significantly higher revenues in the coming quarters. We continued to deliver a very strong gross margin of 27.6%, once again reflecting our industry-leading profitability.

Overall, construction costs came in slightly below our expectations, supported by our strong market position and prudent cost assumptions. While the Q1 results should not be extrapolated, we remain well on track to achieve our full- year gross margin target of more than 24%. We are seeing some cost inflation in building materials, however, a s mentioned by Kruno, we do not anticipate a material impact on our 2026 results as the majority of this year's construction volumes have already been fixed. On a quarterly basis, platform costs were somewhat higher than last year. This was partly driven by non-recurring items, such as expenses related to the LTIP program. Despite general cost inflation, we do not expect a significant increase in platform costs for the full year 2026. Further down in the P&L, net interest expenses increased slightly.

This was mainly due to a modest increase in net debt driven by higher investment activity, as well as lower share of capitalized interest resulting from the ramp up in construction starts. The tax rate was also slightly higher and broadly in line with our full- year budget, reflecting lower expected profit contributions from joint ventures. The bottom-line results of approximately EUR 1 million in Q1 have only limited relevance for the full year. It is distorted by the low level of construction output during the winter quarter. The low top line in Q1 represents an outlier and d ue to the operating leverage of our business model, profitability is temporarily depressed. In the coming quarters, both operating and financial leverage will work in the opposite direction, and w e anticipate significantly higher profits. Moving on to page 10.

Thanks to the strong cash generation projects, we have ample headroom for growth, which we have already started to deploy through the acquisition of high margin projects. Our still low loan-to-cost ratio of only 18.8% and net debt-to-EBITDA of 4x at the trough of the earnings cycle continue to underscore our very solid financial position. We will continue to pursue our land acquisition strategy in 2026 in order to capitalize on the current window of opportunity. Higher investment activity will result in a temporary increase in leverage ratios until cash conversion starts to kick in. Nevertheless, a strong balance sheet remains a core pillar of our business model. Turning to the next slide. Over the past few years, we have repeatedly demonstrated the strong cash generating capability of our business model.

While we continue to expect substantial cash inflows from pre-sold projects, we have now entered a new growth and investment phase. Since Q1 2025, we have acquired land plots for projects with a gross development value of approximately EUR 1.3 billion. We expect total acquisitions with a GDV of at least EUR 2 billion by the end of 2026, corresponding to cumulative acquisition costs of around EUR 300 million for 2025 and 2026. These investments will be financed partially on our balance sheet and partially together with project partners. You can expect further updates on this in the coming months. In addition to land investments, cash requirements will temporarily increase for projects that have entered the construction phase.

This reflects the natural cash flow profile of retail projects, where working capital investments are required early on with cash flows turning positive as construction and sales progress. Nevertheless, as you can see, we generated a positive operating cash flow even in the first quarter. Building on the strong cash generation of recent years, our liquidity position at the end of the quarter amounted to nearly EUR 220 million, which is largely available to fund growth investments and the planned ramp up in construction activity. At the corporate level, only small amounts of debt remains drawn. As a result, our net cash position at corporate level exceeds EUR 110 million. In addition, we have undrawn credit facilities of more than EUR 190 million, providing further financial firepower. Accordingly, the financing of our planned growth investments is fully secured.

Chart 12 shows the current financing structure of our corporate debt, which is largely unchanged. We intend to draw our term loan raised at the end of 2025, and which amounts to close to EUR 50 million over the course of the year, which will more than offset the scheduled debt repayments in 2026. Turning to our outlook. Based on our business performance to date, we confirm our guidance for 2026. We continue to expect sales volumes of EUR 650 million-EUR 750 million. As discussed, numerous sales launches and expected institutional transactions should drive a significant acceleration in growth in the coming months. We anticipate adjusted revenues in the range of EUR 550 million-EUR 600 million, a leading gross margin of more than 24%, and adjusted earnings after tax of EUR 35 million-EUR 40 million.

As already mentioned, a prolonged crisis in the Middle East, accompanied by sustained uncertainty and economic disruption, remains the main risk factor to our outlook. With this, I would like to conclude the presentation and hand over to the Q&A session.

Operator

We will now begin the question- and- answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. Our first question comes from Thomas Rothaeusler with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Thomas Rothaeusler
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Hi, m orning. Couple of questions. The first one is on the institutional business. Just wondering if you would call the recovery a sustainable recovery, and a lso, just to understand what are the drivers, basically. And you point to further institutional deals with JV partners, j ust wondering if you could provide more color, maybe also on the magnitude, what we could expect.

Kruno Crepulja
CEO, Instone

Hi, Thomas. Thank you for your question. First of all, I think it's good to mention that we clearly see that our cost advantage we have with our affordable housing segment is now paying out. We are able to offer a product achieving our margin but also achieving the return requirements of investors. This clearly helps us currently a lot. You know that we have always said that for the social housing segment, the demand has stayed very stable and is not influenced by any interest rate development. We also see an increase of appetite from different investor types for pre-financed residential investments. If you get to the corridor of a cash-on-cash yield of 4%-4.5%, you will find investors who are willing to invest.

Again, what helps us is that we are, as Instone, a cost leader in the market and we are able to meet, you know, the requirements of the investors and our gross margin expectation. Looking at the JV, here, maybe also to be mentioned that we make very good progress. We have one very large project in Düsseldorf, where we are finalizing the negotiation with a potential partner. And we have other projects where we are currently discussed with many interested parties, who are willing to build, to hire Instone as a company providing the construction works and the planning, and w ho think that currently is the best way or, let's say, time period to invest and then to sell the product when it's finalized in a time period where the broader market has come back and offering very attractive returns.

Hopefully I've answered your question.

Thomas Rothaeusler
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yep. No. Great. Thank you. The second one is on your sales guidance, which is EUR 700 million, midpoint actually. As I remember correctly, I think it was like EUR 200 million, at the beginning of the year, you earmarked basically for the institutional business. Just wondering if you would assume a different compensation nowadays after the first quarter.

Kruno Crepulja
CEO, Instone

I would say the potential is there. Of course, we will, you know, if there is for us the chance to sell more to institutional buyers for, I would say for a good margin, we will of course take this chance. I believe there's the chance we can do more. I also want to mention that, you know, we are still confident that we also get to the target, what we have made ourselves for the B2C business, which is of course a bit dependent of the further activities in Iran. But only, also to be mentioned is that if you compare the first quarter sales volume, which is nearly the same as the first quarter in 2025, I have to say that we haven't had any sales start in this year.

We had very strong sales starts in 2025 with Duisburg and Frankfurt Lahnwarte, and n ow we are starting a couple of projects. So, we have, you know, prepared now eight sales starts in the second quarter, which clearly already have an influence because we have roughly 40 units where we already have notary deeds agreed and another 110 reservations, which of course will lead to a notary deed in a couple of weeks. So, we make clearly progress also in the B2C business.

Thomas Rothaeusler
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay, good. The last one is actually on sales starts. I mean, did you change your plans for this year? Maybe, it seems like you have at least turned a bit more cautious with sales starts in the first quarter, obviously on the weaker sentiment from the Mideast conflict. Just to get a better understanding on what we should expect for the rest of the year.

Kruno Crepulja
CEO, Instone

I think we will get to the number we initially planned. We had in the first quarter maybe a delay of three to four weeks for the one or the other project. But I don't see this as a massive shift in comparison to what we have planned.

Thomas Rothaeusler
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay. Okay, great. Thank you.

Kruno Crepulja
CEO, Instone

Thank you, Thomas.

Operator

The next question comes from Thomas Neuhold with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Thomas Neuhold
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes, good morning. Thanks for the presentation. Thank you. My question, I have two. The first is on cost inflation. You mentioned that the high oil price is starting to have an impact on construction costs. I was wondering, what is your guesstimate for cost inflation this year and next year? Do you think that house price inflation will at least match cost inflation, o r is there any risk that margins might come under pressure in the medium term? That's the first question.

Kruno Crepulja
CEO, Instone

Hi, Thomas. Looking at the construction costs and CPI development, I think, you know, we have initially calculated for this year a CPI growth, 2%- 3%. From my perspective, we will stay below that. We clearly have, you know, in the first four months now, very successfully purchased works where we are really significantly below our budgets. And the reason for that is that the construction industry has currently an average capacity utilization, which is slightly above 60%, which is really low. The construction companies in this, let's say, in this segment of, you know, of our business, they are suffering currently through the overall situation, and t his helps us with our negotiation power to get to really attractive prices.

Now, looking at the Iran conflict, of course, and we currently are in negotiation with construction companies, and w hat we clearly see on the ground is that they are still accepting fixed prices over a longer time period, and only a few are discussing with us, you know, prices which are more flexible due to price inflation rates. So, here, we still see on the ground that the construction companies are willing to make fixed prices, and we are very, very comfortable with our budgeting. We believe that for this year, construction CPI won't have any negative influence on our gross margin.

If I look to the next year, I was more skeptical a couple of weeks ago when the war started or was, you know, when we have seen the first reactions and the first inflation discussion. But currently, I would say that due to the low utilization rate, which won't get better really, let's say in the next couple of months, I believe that CPI growth will stay on a level maybe of inflation of roughly 3%. This is our current assumption. This is also plays true if I go through the different scenarios. If the, you know, demand is catching up, the demand would catch up if, you know, the Iran conflict ends. The same scenario, I would say, for the CPI.

Also in the weaker scenario, if the conflict stays longer, then the construction companies are suffering further. For all these scenarios, I think a 3% CPI inflation number for next year, from my perspective, should be realistic.

Thomas Neuhold
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yeah. Thank you. My next question is on the acquisitions. You still target more than EUR 2 billion of GDV in total at the end of this year. I was wondering if you can provide more color on if there are any projects in the pipeline which might materialize in the short term. Generally, on the market situation on the ground, are there more projects in the market now than, let's say, three or six months ago? Is there more or less demand, more competition for projects? What do you see and what do you think?

Kruno Crepulja
CEO, Instone

I think, overall, the situation, let's say in the last six months hasn't really changed massively. We are in a very good position in the competition. We have, you know, the capacities, and there is competition, but it's of course a limited one when you look at the different negotiations we are currently working on. You have always one, two competitors, but it's not like, you know, 10, 15, and t hese competitors are often family offices or it's a combination of private equity for zoned lands. And I have to say that we are overall very confident. We are currently finalizing two bigger acquisitions, which clearly will pay in to reach our target of the EUR 2 billion.

So, big cities, one bigger project in Berlin, for example, and w e are very confident. Looking at the overall strategy, I have to say that zoned land or land which could be zoned in a short time distance in the top cities is a very rare, let's say, product. So, I believe that it makes a lot of sense for us now to invest. You have to also have in mind that after the Ukrainian war started, the companies haven't really invested time to develop new projects. So, we have a four years, if you like, time lag of developers not investing work into new projects, and this will lead to a massive scarcity of zoned land in good locations.

Where we also believe that if the market, you know, recover the land price, inflation will start to go on massively due to the fact that there's a very scarce product there, and it takes a lot of time to activate land plots.

Thomas Neuhold
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Perfect. Thanks for the detailed answer.

Kruno Crepulja
CEO, Instone

Thank you, Thomas.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jochen Schmitt with Metzler. Please go ahead

Jochen Schmitt
Analyst, Metzler

Thank you. Good afternoon. I have three questions, please. Firstly, if the EUR 80 million of potential sales volume to institutionals were to be signed soon, may we assume these contracts to generate around EUR 25 million of adjusted revenues in either Q2 or Q3? That would be the first question. Second one, basically a follow-up again on institutional sales. Are you confident that demand by institutional investors in the second half of the year might be at least as high as in the second half last year? And the last question, do you expect to reach the 30% pre-marketing ratio for some projects in either Q2 or in Q3? These are my questions. Thank you.

David Dreyfus
CFO, Instone

Let me start with question number one. I think the assumption that approximately EUR 25 million from the EUR 80 million will translate into revenues during the course of 2025 is approximately right.

Jochen Schmitt
Analyst, Metzler

Thank you.

Kruno Crepulja
CEO, Instone

Regards the second one and, of course, the second half is the stronger part of, you know, the year. I hope that we won't see the same hockey stick, so hopefully we will see a bit more in the first half in comparison to what we have seen last year. So, hopefully, the end year rally in the last quarter won't be as, as strong as we have seen it last year. And the third one, we have a couple of projects where we expect the 30% hurdle rate to be achieved and also construction start this year.

Jochen Schmitt
Analyst, Metzler

Thank you very much.

Kruno Crepulja
CEO, Instone

Welcome.

Operator

The next question comes from Philipp Kaiser with Warburg Research. Please go ahead.

Philipp Kaiser
Analyst, Warburg Research

Hello, everyone. Thanks for the presentation, and thanks for taking my question. Just a couple of follow-up. Starting with revenues, I mean, due to the kind of soft start to the year, the H2 weightening for this year is now extreme. Could you walk us through the key revenue recognition triggers for the, yeah, last three quarters to get a feeling how comfortable you are to reaching your guidance?

Kruno Crepulja
CEO, Instone

Maybe first, the first answer, let's say, you know, we have started a bit weaker than initially expected for this year due to the strong winter we have seen. What helps us is that, as mentioned before, the capacity of the construction companies is available.

So, we are, you know, forcing now to bring more people on the ground and to catch up with, you know, what we have maybe missed in the first quarter. Here, we feel very comfortable due to the low-capacity utilization of the construction companies. Of course, when you look at the overall development of this year, it's fair to say that the revenue recognition quarter- by- quarter will increase due to the fact that we are increasing the sales start activities. So, you know, increasing the sales volume step by step, w e want to launch roughly 20 sales starts, and this leads clearly to t he highest revenue number in the last quarter. So, you have a, I would say, a continuous step up of revenues over the course of the year.

Philipp Kaiser
Analyst, Warburg Research

Perfect. Thanks a lot for the clarification. You mentioned the low capacity helps you. Have the construction sites already caught up by April or early May? Do you see any catch-up effect already on the construction sites?

Kruno Crepulja
CEO, Instone

I think it's, it won't completely be recovered in the second quarter what we have missed in the first one. So, we will see, you know, this more spread over the year because the biggest, let's say, delay was in the shell construction, the winter month. And what we are currently doing is to increase the speed in the other works. Of course, we try to increase the speed in the shell works, but in addition, we are, you know, bringing more power on the ground in the other parts of the construction activities to compensate and speed up with overall construction activities.

Philipp Kaiser
Analyst, Warburg Research

Okay. Thanks a lot, v ery helpful. Then with regards to the retail segment, just a quick follow-up. Have you seen reservation activity normalize or start picking up from the temporary negative effect in March and April into, yeah, early May? Any, yeah, picking up here?

Kruno Crepulja
CEO, Instone

Yeah, it has picked up. I already mentioned the numbers, so, w e clearly have, let's say, increase the number of notaries in preparation and also the reservation numbers by launching also new projects. I also see that the people have been shocked a bit, I would say, of course, through the war, and we have seen an increase of interest rates, you know, by for 100% financing from 4% to 5%, which is of course a lot. On the other hand, you know that the overall depreciation scheme is not really completely, I would say, i t's still very attractive as a program, but the people needed time.

In addition, what we also see is that the banks needed more time to give feedback and agree to financing. So, this has a bit normalized, t he people have accepted the situation, t he banks are, I would say, also working now more regular, I would say. And this gives us some confidence, but of course, it's also helpful if the war stops. You know that we have said at the, when we have guided through the year that the war should stop in a couple of weeks. Now, we are in the 10th week, and this is fair to say, if the war is further ongoing, then we have to look at it again.

Currently we feel very comfortable, but of course, the war is influencing our business clearly.

Philipp Kaiser
Analyst, Warburg Research

Okay. Thanks a lot, v ery helpful. My next one is on the leverage. What's your peak leverage tolerance during the current investment cycle? Or is it more like opportunity- driven?

David Dreyfus
CFO, Instone

I think, we always mention that our focus will be on LTC, loan-to-cost, where, you know, we think we will be at the peak somewhere between 30% and 40%, definitely below 40%. That is our key driver to look at. Now, on the net debt-to-EBITDA, I think, you know, as long as we have a bit of a depressed EBITDA, you might see an increase also in Q2 of net debt-to-EBITDA, which can go somewhere to 5x . But we definitely also keep that under close scrutiny, and I believe that, you know, EBITDA should increase again, you know, towards the second half or, you know, in the following years again.

So, that should also come down.

Philipp Kaiser
Analyst, Warburg Research

Perfect. Thanks a lot. My very last question regards to Westville. The sale of Westville 2 and 4 GmbH generated roughly EUR 30 million of one-off other operating income, but also materially reshaped your balance sheet. How much of the entire Westville project is now still in the portfolio, and what is the, yeah, residual revenue and probably margin contribution you expect for this year and maybe also next year?

David Dreyfus
CFO, Instone

Maybe I'll start off. I think, you know, we have, Westville will be finalized by mid of this year, so t hat's number one. Therefore, you will have only effects from revenue contribution this, during the course of this year.

Philipp Kaiser
Analyst, Warburg Research

Okay.

David Dreyfus
CFO, Instone

Now, in terms of remaining, revenues, I am not 100% sure how much remaining revenues there are. To not give you unprecise numbers, I think we should come back to you.

Philipp Kaiser
Analyst, Warburg Research

That'd be very helpful, that will finalize mid this year. That helps a lot. That would be my last question. Thanks for the helpful answers. I'll go back in the queue.

Kruno Crepulja
CEO, Instone

Thank you.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, you may press star and one. Our next question comes from Manuel Martin with ODDO. Please go ahead.

Manuel Martin
Analyst, ODDO

Hello, gentlemen. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two questions from my side, maybe one by one. The first one would be coming back to the Iran war. One aspect is prices, a nother aspect could be supply chains. Have you seen or heard about any effects on the supply chains that are concerning for you, or supply chain issues which could appear because that might affect also the construction work? Maybe you could give some color on that, please.

Kruno Crepulja
CEO, Instone

Hi, Manuel. We don't see any effects in comparison to what we have seen, you know, with the Ukrainian w ar when it started. So, there's, from our perspective and our analyze, no risk for supply chain problems for our business, what we currently see here.

Manuel Martin
Analyst, ODDO

Okay. Right. My second question would be on potential investors. I think there was an article in the German press about U.S. investors looking for houses in Germany. Is it something that you have seen as well that maybe some U.S. investors might approach you for JVs or something similar?

Kruno Crepulja
CEO, Instone

Yeah. For JVs, you know, this article is based on this townhouse investments of the one or the other U.S. investor. This is, I would say, only a few where we see broader activities are, you know, renting products, or investment in resi developments in the top cities. And here, we are in a lot of conversations with potential partners who would love to do projects with Instone. As we, as we said a few times before, this is a clear strategy of ours to increase our access to developments by partnering with international investors.

Our interest here is of course to increase our return on equity, and in addition have access to land plots for a very, very reasonable pricing in the current market environment. It makes a lot of sense to secure land and clearly benefiting from the, let's say, the market development in future. So, clearly, a part of our strategy to partner with international money here.

Manuel Martin
Analyst, ODDO

Okay. All right. Thank you very much.

Kruno Crepulja
CEO, Instone

Welcome.

Burkhard Sawazki
Head of IR and Capital Market Communication and Strategy, Instone

Maybe just, your last question, Philipp Kaiser on Westville revenue contribution. There's approximately EUR 21 million of revenues remaining on the Westville side.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this was our last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to the management for any closing remarks.

Burkhard Sawazki
Head of IR and Capital Market Communication and Strategy, Instone

Thank you for your participation. If you need further information, please do not hesitate to contact the Instone IR team. Thank you and goodbye.

Kruno Crepulja
CEO, Instone

Thank you. Bye-bye.

David Dreyfus
CFO, Instone

Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.

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