Good afternoon, and a warm welcome from my side. My name is Olaf Scholz, Head of Investor Relations here at Krones. We have presented this morning our preliminary figures for the fiscal year 2025. So Krones continued profitable growth in 2025, and we forecast also a further revenue and profit will growth for 2026. Next to me is Christoph Klenk and Uta Anders. They will give you more details about these figures and also additional information. And we will also talk about the 2026 targets. After the presentation, you will have the opportunity to ask questions. I think you also know how the Q&A session works. Please use the function, raise your hand, in Teams or send me just a short email, and then I will hand over to you.
Additionally, please be reminded that this meeting will not be recorded, and that it's also not allowed to record the meeting. Please also deactivate any functions of recording at Teams. So I think we can start with the presentation, and I will hand over to Christoph Klenk, CEO of Krones.
Yeah. Yeah, Olaf, thank you. Warm welcome, ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Uta and myself, to our preliminary figures for 2025, and of course, to how we see 2026, and looking forward, and then, of course, answering your questions. I will skip, as always, I would say, the beginning of the slides, because this has been actually working as a summary for you that you can see all in a condensed way. And here, even over the numbers, I will skip because we go in detail anyway. I can say if you see here the numbers at the end of 2025 and seeing the results, we are extremely happy. Before I continue, I want to extend a big thank you to the Krones team globally.
So 21,000 people having make this success possible, because, you know, we're dealing with 160 countries around the globe and, quite complex lines and businesses. And once, somebody is failing, some projects are failing totally. So everybody is important in our team, and that's why we are so thankful that we have achieved those numbers with the team together. Before I go ahead, we had various changes, challenges in 2025. I just want to name them, not all of them, because then we would stand here an hour, but at least three of them. First of all, is Middle East, because we all forgot that in the beginning of the year, Middle East was pretty much under pressure with the strike of Israel and the United States in Iran, which actually affected the whole region.
Then, of course, we had the tariff issues during the year and should not forget that FX issues will affect and has affected our businesses as well. On the other side, we had a highlight with StringTech. You have been all being invited to that, seeing the engineering line and what we are doing with that into the services we are delivering, and of course, with Prefero, the Netstal acquisition and the, let me say, combination of the Netstal machines and the Krones machines. So that's the highlights, and again, thanks to our team that all those things has been working out.
Yeah, numbers you see here, and these are the green tick marks that we have actually achieved what we have promised, and that's the most important thing for us, for Uta and myself, that we once again have been robust in the statements we have made and that we have been achieving our targets. From this on, jumping into more details, order intake. I mean, we have said all the time that order intake will be around one with the book-to-bill ratio, and this is actually what we have achieved. Yes, we have been, and this is very obvious, we have been short EUR 100 million with order intake in comparison with the sales we have done, but nevertheless, I would like to put that into context, what we have seen in 2025.
I said it in the beginning, I mean, the beginning of the year, Middle East was a bit shaky because of what I have said earlier. Then, of course, we had a tariff issue, which, I'm reflecting later on when we go to the split into the regions, how this affected North America, but this has been two challenges. And number three, and this is on the positive note, this is very important for us, that we have maintained price stability. I mean, for those of you knowing us for a longer period of time, in particular, those times before COVID, pricing was all the time an issue. And, since I would say the., l et me say, the markets are a bit more under pressure than before.
For us, it was very important that we kept a very close eye on pricing, and we kept price stability. Some of those, let me say, actions have been that we have been losing some of the orders just to make sure that the signal into the market is crystal clear. That's the remark I wanted to do here. If we look to 2026, because Uta and myself, we have agreed on that, once we go through the presentation here, we give you all the time. Let me say the view in 2026, of course, you will see a summary at the end. But as you have seen, book-to-bill ratio in 2025, around one, which is actually 0.98, if you put it exactly on it, the EUR 100 million shorter, I'm just saying.
We are looking about a book-to-bill ratio slightly above one for 2026. So that means we will be higher than order, than sales, and we will have in order intake, a higher growth than we will have in sales. So that's the statement we are doing, and this is based, of course, always on, let me say, our interviews we have done with our customers by late 2025. And I would say what we see right now in the market looks good for Q1 to confirm what I have just said. So that's for order intake, and I assume you will have later on certainly more questions to it. Order backlog, yeah, that has decreased slightly, but only slightly, and this has been on purpose, because our point was our delivery times have been too long.
Fortunately, we have been able to decrease that to around 40 weeks right now, and in particular, let me say, orders, we are even going further down, so we have shortened that. And we can say that as of today, we don't lose orders because of delivery time. So we have been arrived into the competitive landscape again on where we should be, and that's important for us, that this is not a reason that we are going to lose orders. On the other side, it actually provides a very nice and stable fundament for the, let me say, economical development of Krones in 2026. So we are well booked into the Q3. So very important for us because that gives us the visibility on our statements.
Not more to say again, by purpose, we are happy to decrease that because we need short delivery times. Now, from the market perspective, how do we see things? Number one, we see customers behaving slightly different than what we have seen in the past. I would assume that might be something for Q&A later on, once you want to know more details about that. But basically, if you look to the split of the regions, and this is actually sales, it's not order intake, you might see that on the left-hand side, that North and Central America, in terms of percentage, is going significantly down. However, if you look to the absolute numbers, we maintain a quite stable level on sales in North America, and it's roughly, I mean, it's easy to calculate, it's EUR 1.2 billion.
So all three numbers are reflecting EUR 1.2 billion, and that has to do with the growth of the other regions, and of course, I named it earlier in the beginning, based on FX reasons we have in that. So that's one thing. If you look to pure order intake, North America 2025, that was decreasing, in fact, by 10%. Of course, in the H2 of the year, influenced by the tariffs. But important for you to know, we plan on, let me say, the run-rate levels we had seen, the year before last in terms of order intake for 2026. Because what we see from our customers, since the shock of the tariffs have been going away, the business cases are still even including the tariffs intact.
I think we can talk certainly more about that in the future or in the Q&A. Second, what is to remark here, even as South America looks pretty good in sales, we have missed the targets there. We had higher expectation in to South America, so this was not going too well, to be honest with you. So this is one critical aspect for 2025, and if you look to Asia Pacific, that has been going in, down into sales and in order intake, so that as well, a critical development in 2025. But now the good news comes: for all of the three markets, North America and Central America, South America, and Asia Pacific, we do assume that 2026 will perform better, and we are looking into achieving our targets for 2026.
This, again, because many project has been postponed, are still active, not lost, and that's the reason why we have hope into those markets, and we will see, from our point of view, a good development in 2026. Remarkably, Europe and Middle East, Africa, both of them, in sales and in order intake, have been growing significantly, and in particular, Middle East and Africa have helped to overcome the shortage in order intake in North America. Even China, from the order intake numbers, is an increase in 2026. Sales is declining a bit in the sense of generating revenue, but we are on a good path in terms of order intake. Last but not least, you see Central Asia and Eastern Europe is doing quite well as well, so even good on track here.
That's from, let me say, the markets, the order intake, and where we are with that, and with that, I am going to hand over to Uta.
Thank you, Christoph. Yeah, good afternoon to all of you. Also, from my side, I mean, as always, I will start with revenue development. I mean, you have seen it already in our press release, but let me just give you some additional comments also from my side. I mean, we said 7% growth, so we are within our guidance of 7%-9%, and we have mentioned, or Christoph has mentioned it earlier already, in that 7% is a EUR 99 million effect just coming from currency translation. That was mainly in Q3 and Q4. We didn't see it so much at the beginning of the fiscal year. That's why also we didn't put too much emphasis at the beginning of the fiscal year on it.
But if you look now at the whole fiscal year, EUR 99 million is quite an effect, and if we took that out, we would have been. We would have recorded a growth rate of 8.9%. Yeah, Q4, I mean, we had always said for both order intake and revenue, Q4 will be strong. With EUR 1.556 billion, it was strong, 9.7% growth, compared to 2024, so also there within our expectations. I mean, as Christoph has mentioned, we will highlight already on those slides, on the individual slides, our expectation, our guidance for 2026. Our expectation for 2026 is a growth, a revenue growth of 3%-5%, and, and this is important, adjusted for currency translation effects.
I mean, it's the first time that we are guiding this way, but only and not but. I mean, we also saw, as I said earlier, EUR 99 million is quite a high number for 2025, and we expect a similar number for 2026. So that's why we believe it's only fair to take that out in our guidance or guide this way. Moving on with EBITDA: EUR 602.3 million. I mean, we are not so much into superlatives, but let's say it's the highest number we have ever recognized. So we are proud on behalf of our team that we have achieved that. And you can see 12.2% growth, so absolute numbers growth compared to 2024.
I mean, speaking about margin, you can see the 10.6%, so a 0.5 percentage point compared to 2024, and we are with that within our guidance of 10.2%-10.8%. As I'm sure you all have calculated, Q4, which was an 11% margin, so versus a 10.3, Q4 2024. For 2026, I mean, the headline of our press release has stated it already. We continue growth both in top line, but also in margin. So that's why our expectation, our guidance is 10.7%-11.1% for 2026. Moving on with EBT, very similar development to what I had said already for EBITDA.
I mean, if we look at the absolute number, EUR 424.1 million, 7.5% margin, and I already want to say it at this point, I'm sure a lot of you have calculated the difference between EBITDA and EBT, which is a little bit in terms of growth lower. So, I mean, we had higher depreciation in 2025, and also the interest result was a little bit lower because we had special effects in 2024. But I'm sure we'll come to that also later in the Q&A. Personnel and material expense. Yeah. Starting with personnel cost, I mean, you can see that we have increased it by EUR 125 million, which is.
I mean, that's logical because of the additional FTE, which we will see in one of the next slides, but also the overall cost increase in payroll per person in general. Important for us, and you know that we have highlighted that also throughout the course in the fiscal years, 30.1%, so very close to our 30%, which is an orientation for us as P1, personal cost, as a result of total performance. Material cost, yeah, very positive development, as we can see. I mean, overall, we only increased material cost by EUR 110 million. So, and that brought us then also down to 47.8% material cost ratio. So well below all other years, which is just a result also of the good work of our purchasing team.
I already spoke about employees very shortly. I mean, you can calculate it yourself. We have an increase by 962, coming to 21,339 employees. So what makes up the difference of the 962? A quarter of it is service technicians. Then we have some, but that's not three-digit, so mid- to mid two-digit increase because of M&A. You remember, we have bought CSW, and the rest of the increase is across the globe, as I always say, and also across the functions, also with emphasis, of course, focus on digitalization and IT. Important for us also is, I mean, looking at the ratio of the German workforce, in total, that is 55.0 compared to 55.5 last year.
Also to mention, you can read it in the headline, 1,600 employees in the United States. Now, coming to the segments, yeah, I mean, for Filling and Packaging Technology, the story is always very similar to Krones in total because it is the largest segment. So I mean, with our EUR 4.774 billion revenue, we had a growth of 7.2%. Also, here, affected or impacted by FX. We have met the guidance 7%-9%, which is important for us, and we also here had a very strong Q4, EUR 1.294 billion revenue. Looking at absolute EBITDA and margin, you can see 517.8 and a margin of 10.8%.
So also here, well within our guidance, which we had given of 10.5%-11.0%, and Q4 was 11.2%. Speaking about guidance, yeah, for 2026, we expect revenue growth by 2%-4%, adjusted for currency translation effects and an EBITDA margin of 11%-11.5%. Moving on to Process Technology, I mean, EUR 514 million revenue, it's a growth by 1.2%. Our guidance was 0.0%-5%, so we have met our guidance here as well. Very slight currency translation effects, but as I said, not major. Speaking or coming to EBITDA, you can see it, EUR 52.9.
So another positive development here, and also, if we look at the margin, 10.3%, our guidance was 9%-10%. So a very positive development also because you know that, on the growth side, we are lacking a turnkey project, but that, on the other side, is beneficial also for the margin. Speaking about, guidance, same guidance as we had it for 2025, 0%-5% and 9%-10% EBITDA margin. Intralogistics, EUR 376 million revenue. You can see EUR 44 million more than 2024, which is a growth by 13.2%. Adjusted for currency translation effects, it was 14.9, so very, very close to our, our 15%-20% guidance, which we had given.
Looking at EBITDA and margin, yeah, also, if we look longer term, a very positive development here. Overall, 31.6 is an absolute figure, but also 8.4% as the number, which is also solid. You remember that we had said on the CMD that we are having smaller projects, but also new products, which we brought into the market also then with higher margins. And for 2026, a growth of 5%-10% and EBITDA margin of 7.5%-8.5%. So far for our P&L. Now let's look into our balance sheet and everything which is related to that. I want to start with cash and liquidity. I mean, you have seen it already on the first slide.
We had a very good cash flow in the Q4 again, and overall, a very good cash flow of EUR 283 million, which brought us then to a cash of EUR 549 million, which was above our expectations. And with free credit lines and used ones, you can see the number 1.437 liquidity, so very solid, to manage global economic volatility, as also the headline states. Now, coming to the right side of the picture, I mean, you see that we have increased equity by EUR 206 million, so to EUR 2.18 billion.
The 206, of course, is the result of EUR 299 million net income, paying out the dividends of EUR 82 million, and then a small miscellaneous change brings us to the 212.8, and it's an increase by 11% compared to December 2024. Because the total of assets and liability only increased by 6%, we increased our ratio to 42.2%. Yeah, and of course, I mean, good cash flow, very good cash flow is reflected in stable working capital development, 17.3%. So very much in line with what we had last year, so 2024, below our 20% or also 18%, which we have as a hallmark also for the future.
Then, looking where it comes from, I mean, received repayments, you see that with 15.6%, this is two percentage points lower than we had at end of 2024. But if we look at the overall number, it is still about EUR 900 million, as we had it also, 2024. Now, looking at inventory, also stable here as an absolute number, and that's why also the ratio decreased slightly to 12.5%. EUR 700 million approximately is the absolute number. And now accounts payable, 15.5%. So on the level as we had at 2024, and here we had an increase in the absolute number, which of course then leads to a stable ratio. Receivables, contract assets as last number, a slight decrease, one percentage point.
If I look at the overall number, also slight decrease, slight increase, close to EUR 2 billion we are here now. And if I look at the total working capital, you don't see that number on this slide, EUR 80 million increase. But we see that number on the next slide as change in working capital. But let's start, first of all, with free cash flow. In general, we have mentioned that already a few times throughout this call, EUR 282.9 million. So above our expectations, because we had a very strong Q4 again, as we have it usually. And if we look where does it come from, or where does the free cash flow before M&A come from? Of course, first of all, earnings development.
Other non-cash changes, which is mainly depreciation, and then change in working capital, I already mentioned. Other assets and liabilities, the major part or the bulk in that is tax payments, EUR 111 million, so income tax payments. Some of you may wonder why that is so much higher than it was in 2024. 2024, we had some consolidation effects from Netstal included, so that's why it's not a hundred percent comparable. Cash flow from operating activities, very solid, very good, with EUR 446 million, and CapEx, EUR 185 million, so 3.3%, so slightly below our 4%. Then other, which is smaller things, bringing us to our free cash flow without M&A. M&A activities in 2025, you remember Q3, CSW acquisition, that was the largest in here.
Then financing activities, other, that is mainly the payout of the dividend of EUR 82 million, and then some lease payments. And then you can read it yourself, change in cash, bringing us to our cash of EUR 550 million. Free cash flow as a, as an overview, over many years, and also then slightly shown what our expectation for 2026 is. Yeah, we are always a little bit more cautious. Yeah, Christoph is smiling.
I was smiling.
Because we have always a kind of discussion on how high is the bar. I'm sure that some of you will also measure the bar and have a number there. But you know, what, what is our, what is our message here? Our message is here, we also expect for 2026 a solid and a good free cash flow. That's our, our message. And, last but not least, for 2026, 2025, of course, ROCE 19.1. Yeah, it's logical. EBIT increased by 13%, average capital employed increased only by 8%, so that's why our ROCE increased by 0.9 percentage points to 19.1. And also give you, to give you the absolute numbers, EBIT EUR 417 million, and average capital employed, close to EUR 2.2 billion. Yeah.
So far for the actuals, and now let's just summarize one more time the outlook for 2026. I mean, I have mentioned all those numbers already throughout the call, but already, but one more time here as a summary, 3%-5% revenue growth. Important is the asterisks adjusted for currency translation effects. EBITDA margin, 10.7%-11.1%, and ROCE, 19%-20%. And of course, we have the usual disclaimers, and actually we have added here also reliability of forecasting revenue is impacted because of the volatility of exchange rate. But that's why we have adjusted it in the revenue growth guidance. And for the segments, also here, the summary one more time. I have mentioned all of them already throughout my presentation, so that's why I will not read them out one more time.
That is everything from my side.
Yep.
For the presentation.
Right. So let's have a look on the midterm targets. And since we have this morning several interviews with newspapers, and journalists, I thought I should give a bit more of a taste on it, because, if you look to the planned revenue in 2026, you might ask the question: Is that target still valid? And I can say it's still valid. And I just want to give some highlights on that. First of all, as we state that always here, we are not talking only with our customers about their one-year investments. We have been talking about their three years investments and how markets might develop into the future. No security on that, but at least we have a pretty good understanding about possible investments in the different regions. So that's one thing.
The investment cases are pretty robust. I mean, that you see when you see what, let me say, hurdles we had in the world economy, in the geopolitics in 2025, and still the order intake was good. Then we have our basic growth drivers intact. I don't want to repeat them in detail, is growth of world population, in particular in Asia and Africa and Middle East. It's definitely escaping from poverty in many areas of the world, of people. Then it's in the mature economies. It's definitely product varieties and differentiation, so that helps us a lot for new lines, and it's cost pressure of our customers because new lines will simply have a better cost structure than old lines. Then there is, of course, our new factories coming up in China and in India.
That has, if you say, if we say new factories, that has to do we can actually better compete with local competition. We are still, for example, in China, the number one in terms of revenue, but we have, let me say, growing competition, and we need to get on the price levels of our Chinese competitors, where we can get really close to and have a bigger scale of, let me say, equipment being built in China. Same is true for India. So on those two factories, we have hope, and they have to deliver contribution of it. And then the most important one is innovation. If you look to what you have seen on drinktec, there is this new line type, but it's not, let me say, a machine or a line because it's a new line.
It's about getting more share of the life cycle revenue of our customers. Of course, we are going to take more responsibility, but if you look to the utilization of our installed base, that is a significant proportion on the growth we have. So if you look to all of that, that's quite a big proportion which is coming along. I have to add, we all the time had some acquisitions being built in. They are, let me say, on reasonable scale, EUR 30 million-EUR 70 million. That's the ideal sweet spot for us in the sense we do acquisitions, so that might be not overweighted into what we are going to see until 2028, but nevertheless, it's part of it. And then there's one other big thing, Uta referred to that already.
There's the FX, because if you look to that, and if we would see the FX effects in 2025 and 2026, we are close to EUR 6 billion with the guidance in sales, with the guidance we have given for 2026. So if you look to all of those factors, I think this is a reasonable number, and if we see then around EUR 7 billion being possible in terms of revenue, that will be a, let me say, a reasonable number from our point of view. Certainly, for the time being, with the FX effects, more difficult to achieve, but nevertheless, I would say for the time being, we have no reason to see that our fundamental underlying, let me say, factors out of the markets would not work. That's the statement I wanted to do here and to express that very clearly.
So I would say with that, we are through our presentation. I mean, key takeaways, that's a summary of the presentation. I wouldn't say that we are going to refer that once again. I would move directly on to Q&A. Thanks for listening.
So thanks to Uta, thanks to Christoph, for this information about the actual figures and the outlook. I already got on my list, Adrian Pehl from ODDO with some questions. Adrian, your questions, please?
Yes. Thank you, everybody. I think you can also see me now. So, actually, first of all, a question on what you mentioned in terms of the dynamics in China. I just want to make sure to get that right. So basically, the development that we saw throughout 2025, is that rather a function of the investment cycle of Chinese customers? Or would you say that you have been losing share? I mean, I hear you that the situation on the order book side is improving, but how do you see your market position going forward in China? And the second question is linked to a little bit the slide, obviously, that you showed on the free cash flow development.
Just want to make sure, on the CapEx side of things, what should we expect for 2026, and how is the phasing of the CapEx, given that you are ramping up your capacity, throughout the years? I start with these two, and then I jump back into the queue.
Right. First, to where we are in China and how—and if we look closer to the market, how do we have to see the market there? I mean, first of all, to give general questions of the Chinese market is very difficult because you need to see it different in the different, let me say, beverage categories, and we have to see it, of course, different in the, let me say, various products we have in the Chinese market. So it's a different view. But if I look into general, I would say China has had, over the last five years, a bit an up and down. So we have been on higher investments level, then it has been a bit going down, it had been a bit going up. But if we look to a long run, it's pretty stable.
And I would say the investment patterns of our customers is on a very comparable level. Now, if you look to the future, I mean, China is right now, in terms of investments, dominated by aseptic bottling lines. The Chinese market has some specialties, and if I look back, Krones had a bit of a shortcoming because we didn't have aseptic lines localized. What we deliver out of China is PET lines for water and CSD, which was working well, and everything included, so from, let me say, from the beginning to the end. And now the next step, and this is becoming true in 2026, are aseptic lines out of China, because the market is significantly growing. Historically, we have been the biggest supplier of aseptic lines over the last 20 years in the Chinese market.
We have around 250 systems installed in the market. Then it has been going down a bit, and then it has been going up, and we had the disadvantage of what I just said, no local production, but this is coming up right now. So I would say if I look to the future, there's a better foundation on which we sit in terms of the local supply. We can supply out of the market, and we have strengthened our technical, let me say, ability in China in addition. So I would say there is a good potential for the future.
And second, we have been working on the other side of the product portfolio that we get a bit of, let me say, more simple products out of the Chinese operation, to serve, to begin, I really to say, to begin to serve the market better. Now, if you look to the order, let me say, behavior of our customers, this is a quite competitive market, and then I would say this is changing because we have seen customers being good five years ago. They have lost really market shares, and others have taken them. Fortunately, because of the long term, we are already serving the Chinese market and a good customer relationship.
We don't care too much which customer is at the moment investing or not, because we have access to all of them, and we have a specific program in place to get customers on board, which we didn't know yet because they are new customers. We are having a team observing the local competition in detail just to understand what we need to do in order to get with certain customers an order, which is not all the time only the product. It has a lot to do with the services we supply around the product. Hope that gives you a taste where we are in China.
Can I take the CapEx question?
Yep.
Adrian, it is what we have communicated also throughout the conferences. We stick to our 4%. That's also the bottom-up plan we have, and, I mean, we have mentioned all the investment, not cases, but projects we are currently undergoing. Christoph talked about the strategic importance of India, but also of China. We spoke about the U.S. That's where money goes into when it comes to CapEx, but also here in Germany, I mean, investing into a new warehouse here in, at our headquarters, but also investing more automation into our machining facility close by. So those are the big tickets, and they end up at 4%, as we had planned it all the time.
Thank you.
Mm-hmm.
Thanks to Adrian. The next question, I just see a phone number starting with 44. I don't know the name.
Somebody from the UK, that's all.
It must be UK number, yeah? It's a UK number, and then next is 7407. But perhaps we skip to the next one, which is Vithushan from IV Value. Vithushan, your questions, please.
Hello, everyone. Thank you. Thanks for taking my question. So just regarding the outlook provided, I was just wondering of the composition of it. I mean, is it possible to split it a bit? I understand that it's communicated in local currency, and thereby can you elaborate a bit more on how much, I would say, it could come from pricing and how much from volumes? And also, if M&A is loosely part of the strategy for 2026 as well, if you could get some color on that. And the next question will be on the EBITDA margin.
So you're enhancing them, and is it possible to elaborate a bit more regarding the drivers implying the improvements, notably the cost optimization measures? I've seen in the presentation that personal expenses were increasing relative to total performance while material expenses were decreasing. So can you please shed some lights on this as well? I mean, is this trend going to be for the coming year or not? Thank you.
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
So if you look to the, let me say, more detailed split of the 2026 perspective we give. I mean, number one, we do not see significant changes on, let me say, the markets we are going to serve, okay? So I would say the composition will be pretty much the same, and that's the reason why we see, once we see currency on the same levels as of today, and the changes that currency impacts, and that's what we actually stated, might then be very comparable. If you look to the composition of, let me say, our segments, even this composition will be pretty much the same. I mean, with the growth of what we have said, this will be pretty easy to calculate.
If you look now to our main segment in terms of machines and services, which we do not separate there, even there, the composition would be the same. There might be small gains in terms of the life cycle, because that's important for us, but that's the beginning. It will be pretty small. So I would say even this composition will be pretty much the same. And if you look to pricing, there is very little in terms of pricing included. We keep prices stable, and even in those areas where we had historically, I would say, better and, fast price adjustments, which is the spare part and life cycle business, even there, prices are pretty stable because customers do not accept that we are raising pricing for the time being.
I mean, we are fighting, and I said that in the beginning, we pay strong attention that pricing is not eroding. That's our target. But if you look to sales in total, there's no pricing effects being included. So I hope that gives you for, let me say, this category, a point. And if you look to the strategy to 2026, I mean, if you look to the overall situation, we have been, let me say, driving the company significantly by growth in a pretty large scale over the last four years. Yes, that's a bit less than in the past, but if you look to 2026, we have big initiatives in the markets that we go more in specific cases of the market that we strengthen.
For example, if name it, processing, that we say we have, we are going to attack certain markets stronger. We have four categories of processing, different sales forces being in place, which are coming just to make sure that we maintain the growth. Same is true for Intralogistics. And if we look to our core business, it's about what I said, that in 2026, the factories in China and in India are going to be started up. That's an important factor to serve the markets closer. And of course, as always, we are building stronger footprint into life cycle around the globe just to make sure that we are going to harvest on the installed machine base and getting more share in the service section. I would say that's my summary. Yeah, okay. Thanks, Uta.
I would have said it also.
Good. M&A is something which we certainly look into, which might be as well part of it. Did I read it right, what you said? Yeah. Good.
Yeah.
Good. Then we go to the.
Let's go.
Yeah.
Let's look at margin expansion. I mean, 10.7%-11.1%, actually, it's compounded by various developments. First of all, let's look at payroll. I mean, I mentioned earlier, staying around 30% is important for us. I mean, despite of staying at around 30%, we expect as an absolute number, an increase in payroll just because of, for instance, collective bargaining agreements, which is around, but it's just an approximate number, 3%. Then on the other hand, and I've communicated that also throughout our conferences, we expect decrease in material cost. And why are we certain that we can achieve that? Because already last year, so 2025 in summer, we have actually closed quite some deals in terms of securing steel, for instance.
We are not only securing that for us, Krones, but we have also secured it for some of our suppliers, which then gives us a leverage also on some of the supplies we get. So that is important, and we have also hedged copper. So that's the two major components of our cost base. Then, I mean, we will not have a drinktec in 2026, which also has a certain effect. I mean, you know, it was around, but it's just an approximate number, EUR 10 million last year, so 2025. So we will not have that high amount in 2026. And as a fourth lever, we will have only a moderate increase in FTE in 2026 compared to 2025, so very moderate.
Last but not least, we have always talked about the strategic measures we are executing to secure our, our margin, to secure our performance. We have spoken earlier about CapEx. I mean, I have spoken about our machining plant, and there we are increasing the level of automation, which helps us also then to increase operational efficiency, just to name five reasons why we or five portions why we believe that the EBITDA can increase as a margin. Does that answer your question? Mm-hmm.
Thank you. Thank you, thank you for, for your answers. I'll get back into the queue.
Thanks to you. The next question is coming from Lars vom Cleff from Deutsche Bank. Lars, your questions, please.
Yes, thank you very much. Good afternoon. Two quick ones, but I guess the first one you already answered. I mean, looking at your organic growth guidance for this year, 3%-5%, if I understood you correctly, you said pricing is stable, so that it will be fully and solely be driven by volume effects, correct?
Yeah. Correct.
Perfect. And then, I mean, more and more of my companies are worried or starting to get worried about chip prices rocketing, potential supply chain bottlenecks. Would you see that as a risk for your company as well? And if chip prices stay on this extremely or far elevated levels they are currently, or some of them are currently, trading on, would you be able to pass on the additional costs to your customers?
First of all, I would say we, as a management, and this is maybe one of the learnings out of the last five years, that you worry all the time about your supply chain. But nevertheless, I would say we see no hurdles at the time being that we are not capable of, let me say, getting those components on board, which we need for our production. And out of this learning from the last five years, we have a totally different view on supply chains because we, our arrangements, Uta said it earlier, that we are going to hedge material and making these on a much longer period than we have been doing that in the past. We have included our suppliers, and this is even to the chip question, even for all the suppliers, because we don't buy any chip direct.
So if we buy chips, they are either in the PLCs, which we get delivered from Siemens and others, or in other electrical components, which we get supplied again from Siemens, from B&R, and so on. But what we have is, we are sitting with them and to look deeper into their supply chain. And I would say the fact that we have been all the time concerned that the Taiwan-Chinese issue might come up, that we have secured supply chains in, let me say, different quantities and different time periods than we have been doing that in the past. And this will help us of a pretty long period, if things go south, that we can, A, maintain pricing, and B, can maintain supply.
I don't want to go more in detail into what we have done there, but it's at least beyond one business year. That's the important message we sent here. Second, this is another learning. Once pricing of certain components goes out of the frame, like a chip pricing would go up, and we can explain that to our customers. We have gained significant experience in translating material cost increases once they are reasonable and can be not compensated by other sectors of material cost, that we can translate that into pricing. This is still a let me say, a procedure we do every six weeks, controlling procurement and sales. Is there anything which we need to translate? Because that was one of the learnings out of the let me say, supply chain crisis.
Once we look early into that and address it early, we can manage even, let me say, significant price changes in the supply chain reasonably. So I hope this gives you a taste on how we are going to manage that, and I wouldn't say that we are fully protected to all of this because, we all know that surprises might come up, but at least we have prepared in a reasonable manner for such kind of incidents which might happen.
That is helpful. Thank you very much.
You're welcome.
Thanks to you, Lars. And then, good afternoon to Christoph Blieffert from BNP. Christoph, your questions, please.
Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. Can you give us some idea about the revenue contribution for the new Chinese and Indian factory, please, in 2026?
A very simple, India will be very low because these are actually, most probably for the time being, what we see today, two lines which are built in India and being then shipped to customers. So if you look to the overall revenue, it's small. It's more for, let me say, if we look to order intake in India and the agreements we are going to do with our customers, and this will actually pay off 2027 and 2028. For China, I mean, today we are doing a low three-digit number revenue in China locally, and I would say this is going to be extended by 10%-20% in 2026. Why is that? Because the factory goes into operation by July, and I would say until we have it in really full speed, it will be October.
Nevertheless, we are doubling the capabilities in China for 2027, and this is what I said earlier, that we are even going to localize our aseptic business there, which is a significant proportion, which can even add then another, let me say, 50% to what we are going to do in China. So it, it will be quite a significant proportion. I think there will be a chance in one of the next meetings to show you some slides, how this looks like. This is a factory which is really big, and at the end, we are talking about increasing our headcount in China until mid-2027, from today, roughly 1,000 to 1,500.
But small in 2026.
Small in 2026. Yeah.
Okay, thank you for that.
Yeah.
You have been highlighting the negative FX impact of, again, EUR 99 million in 2026. This is based on the current exchange rate levels?
The EUR 99 million is 25.
Mm-hmm.
That's what we have highlighted, and this was just the difference between the average exchange rates, 2024 to 2025, so translated them with the same exchange rates, and actually, most of it comes from the U.S. dollar, about half of it.
Mm-hmm
S ignificant portion. 2026, yeah, we expect a similar level. Does that answer your question?
Similar level means again, the hundred.
Like we had it in 25.
Yeah.
Like we had it in 2025, yes.
Yeah.
Around EUR 100 million.
Okay.
Yes.
Mm-hmm.
Okay. If the exchange rate remain on the current level, would you have to adjust your 2028 targets?
Yeah. That's a good question because we can answer that when we know how the exchange rate will remain, let me say, later than 2026. But I told you earlier, I mean, we are, like, keeping this target of around EUR 7 million in place, okay? And how much we might be short because of FX effects, I can't tell you today. We always the statement, we believe in the growth of our market. There are potentials which we can actually lift ourselves. It's not only market related, and since I have been explaining that, we would not make the statement at all that we are, for the time being, skip any of those targets.
I mean, there are many unpredictable things in front of us, but we have seen that world economy is, for us, in our markets, quite stable, and we believe we have talked that up and down. We still believe in that target, and we establish that even with the FX effects in place for the time being.
Thanks a lot for the insight.
Please allow me that, do not make.
Sure
T ake the notions in for the time being. I have to be really careful because there are any worries is interpreted, so we stay with the targets of the around EUR 7 billion in 2028. That's important.
This is understood.
Yep, good. Thanks.
Thanks to you, Christoph. Now, we identified the number from UK. Somebody, somebody has it. From Jefferies. Hi.
Hello, hello.
Now your questions, please.
Can you guys hear me okay?
Yes.
Yes.
Amazing. Good stuff. Thank you so much for taking my questions. Yeah, sorry, I had some issues with Teams. All right, so I have three questions. I would love to start with the medium-term guidance one. So I already heard that on the call, you talked about order intake in Q1 looking good. So what I want to understand for 2026, because clearly there has to be some kind of growth cadence into that about EUR 7 billion figure in 2028, meaning that order intake clearly has to be above 1x or book-to-bill this year. So what I want to understand is, what visibility, and are you actually seeing a pickup in order intake where you could today already give confidence that 2027 we could see an accelerated growth relative to what we're seeing currently, obviously, assuming no further effects at once?
Well, visibility is certainly not up to 2027. I mean, the visibility, if I might explain that, what kind of visibility we have and how we deal with that. We have three measures. Number one, discussion with our customers to understand those, our own analytics. That's one package, where we actually look into the markets and how we think that we see investments coming. Then second, we have the more short-term view, which might go, let me say, until end Q2, beginning of Q3, and this is how many quotes we have out and how the pipeline looks like. And saying that, this includes as well, that we look into how much is the lost order rate we have, because it's important.
Is there enough volume in the market and we are losing because of other reasons, or is the market, let me say, as such, not intact? But what I can say as of today, and this was true even for 2025, volume is not an issue. If my sales colleague would say, he would say, "Christoph, volume is no issue at all. Just pricing is a problem." But this is my second statement, we want to maintain pricing, so this is all the time a bit of a, let me say, a different balance we need to keep. And number three, short term, why I say Q1 is okay, we are mid of February. We know the orders we have already on hands, we know what is out there, and we know what we usually gain or lose.
So I think this is something where we are usually pretty good in predicting that. But 2027 is staying significantly on the measures we have in our own hand, what I said earlier, the factories we are going to build, the innovations we see, the life cycle we want to extend, the processing where we see big potentials in the market that we can grow further, and even Intralogistics, which has been doing great for us, where we can grow on. And we have then, let me say, next time, what we call advanced molding technology, where we see options and some smaller, let me say, growth areas where we are going to grow. So if we put it only on what we know from the market, this would be not enough for us to see really the case.
Yes, order intake, of course, has significantly increased in 2027, that's no doubt about. This is something we have in mind once we look into the statements we have just given.
Fair enough on 27, but then just rephrasing the question, keep it simple, Q1, Q2, Q3, which is what you have visibility on.
Yep.
You're confident that book- to bill is above one?
As confident as you can be with all the history and, let me say, the know-how we have. We have not yet the orders for Q2 and Q3 in our hand, but again, pipeline is good. We have been, I would say any week in discussion, is that sound what we have planned to? Do we—Can we stick to it? Is there—Are there reasons why it should not work? But from all what we know, things are looking pretty good for the time being. A promise I wouldn't give too long, being in the business because, we all know that Israel, Iran, sorry, Iran and the Middle East is, let me say, under pressure for the time being, for us, an important market.
I would predict that there is a reasonable reason, or let me say, it's reasonable that there will be a strike, which would be then serious for our business. So that might be some of the downside, but if things could go normal, yes, I'm quite confident that we are going to get our order intake.
Understood. Thank you. So second question, just on cash levels, we're reaching close to EUR 550 million in net cash. So I'm wondering, is there, in terms of M&A pipeline, is there anything potential coming up that could be larger? And if not, at what level of cash would you start considering returning cash to shareholders?
First of all, I mean, we have proven over the period that we have been using the cash for possible M&As. I would say on the other side, we are very careful in terms of our cash positions because we all know that this is something very comfortable once you have it, and particularly when such times get being more shaky. But I can say we are, how to say? We are working on M&A projects. However, we do speak only in case they are just before becoming true. So these are things which might come up, and we have, sorry, when I say that, not yet considered to pay extra dividend to our shareholders because we believe the reinvestment in the company is going to happen.
We see things which could be done in the market in terms of M&A, and let's see how this continues through 2026 and 2027. I don't think we come into the question, what do we have to use our or we have to give our cash to pay it out to the shareholders?
Yeah, and also with the profitable growth, we believe, our forecast shows that the payout ratio or payout per dividend is going to increase. So that is the lever, where we believe that this is beneficial for our shareholders as well.
Okay, understood. And then just curious around the free cash flow development. I know you said that, you know, that you're being conservative for 2025 for 2026, sorry. But just to understand the dynamics of it, because from today's perspective, I mean, because you basically confirmed the 2028 guidance, I would assume that orders start accelerating in 2026 in order to have the book-to-bill grow in 2027. So looking at the free cash flow development, what is holding you back from generating a free cash flow that is similar or even above 2025?
I mean, we are, we're going to invest further, 4% of revenue. That's also what we plan for 2026 and also the years beyond. I mean, for working capital, I mentioned earlier a level of about 18%, which is an absolute increase also for 2026. Of course, we're gonna generate good levels of cash flow from operating activities. And so we expect a good level. And why is it in our expectation lower than it is for 2025? I mean, you may remember that for 2025, our expectation actually was a bit lower as well. So that means we have generated more cash flow. And I mean, you can cash flow only generate once, so there's maybe also some effect, some small effect from 2026.
But overall, we expect a very good cash flow development for 2026 as well. Some, as my colleague may say, also conservatism in there, but we believe it's gonna be a good one as well.
Understood.
You know, we don't guide it. We don't guide it. I mean, it's of course, indirect part of our ROCE guidance, but the free cash flow, we don't guide, we just give an indication on the expected development.
Understood. Christoph, can I quickly just. Thank you so much. Can I, Christoph, can I just ask very quickly, you said Iran obviously is an important part of the business. If there is potentially a strike there, is there any, I mean, any idea that you could give us in terms of what the potential impact could be?
First of all, when I look to Iran, I mean, it's. I'm looking more to the countries, let me say, aside from Iran, like Saudi Arabia and Israel. So I'm doing not talk about Iran. That's from a business perspective, not important. So I was more looking to the uncertainty which bring death to the region, because if you look to our Israeli and Saudi Arabian friends and customers, I mean, if such a strike would go to happen, they are concerned whether their countries would be attacked. That's the real reason behind it. I would say our customers are in this region, quite robust to whatever weaponized conflict they are going to see.
Nevertheless, a bit of an uncertainty might be if, let me say, such a counterattack of Iran might jeopardize those areas. And I would say it's limited to those being around Iran, but if I really can figure out what the impact would be, I can't tell you. I would take it around. I mean, if you look, too, we have digested a 10% decrease in order intake in North America because of the tariffs, and we have been able to compensate that in other areas. And I would see that other, let me say, areas of the world, and I would name Asia in particular, have a big potential for 2026. And again, I wouldn't promise it, but I can, I would see potentials to compensate in other areas as well.
That's the reason why we still stay pretty sound on our statement. Book-to-bill ratio will be slightly above one.
Understood. Thank you so much.
Welcome.
Thanks to you, Konstantin. The next questions come from Sven Weier from UBS. Good afternoon, Sven.
Yeah, good afternoon. Thanks for having me. I'm sorry, I have to follow up on the revenue guidance, and I'm probably the only person on the call who hasn't understood it yet. But, the 3%-5% guidance that you give, is that already after the EUR 99 million, or do we have to deduct it, so the real guidance is 1%-3%?
So the first of all, the 99 is 25, but I said it's a similar number for 26, and the 3.5.
Mm-hmm
I s not after the 100, so the similar number, you have to deduct it.
Okay, good. That's what I thought, but just wanted to confirm that. And then the other question also on currency, because you said U.S. is down 10. I mean, is that an organic figure, or is that including the negative currency effect? Because otherwise.
In-including
[Crosstalk]
I guess you would be kind of.
Yeah, yeah, including, including, including.
Oh, so organically, you've been actually quite flat in the U.S., despite all the trouble.
Well, it's 50/50. It's 50/50. If you look to the numbers on order intake, what I just said, I would say a bigger proportion is tariffs, but it's certainly a proportion is currency. Yeah. But nevertheless.
Um
This is not so, y ou have to look into currency is an order intake, not so big issue. It's just a translation effect, which we usually have once we translate P&Ls from the US into Germany. Because on the orders, we are dealing with the numbers we have in the quotes, very simple. And we don't translate them because if we quote bottling lines to the US, we have here a euro quote. So if we count, we have not a US count. Once we quote out of the US, of course, it's US, and we do not translate that at all. It's just the number we see. So order intake has not so big, a big effect of FX than actually the sales has, because we don't have the, let me say, exact translation.
Yeah. Makes sense. Final question from me is just, if you could share, what kind of beer exposures do you still have left? I mean, we all.
That's a good question.
C an obviously see the issues that the beer makers have, and it doesn't seem to be getting better. A generational issue, I guess. So has it become quite small already, or what's left in beer?
First of all, I have to say compliment how you phrased the question, in the sense of what beer percentage we have left.
Beer exposure is, this is really good. 2025 was really bad on it. If you look to it, I think it would have been around 20%, maybe beyond, a bit below that. But interestingly, we have received this year quite good orders from the beverage industry, from the beer industry. So I would, if you look to purely Q1, this would be on old levels, maybe between 25% and 30%. But all in all, we do expect that beer is, I would say on a 22%-25% level in our portfolio. And it's still decreasing since intralogistics is growing, and we have been actually in processing, not growing at all in the beer. That has become a pretty small business in the processing.
I would say, and I can say the number, that's pretty easy, we have around EUR 120 million in the processing business being exposed to beer, not more anymore. Where we are coming from, I would say EUR 300 million, but it has been compensated all by other, let me say, activities outside of beer. In the core, I would say it's pretty stable because bottling lines are more replaced than brewhouses.
What is the nature of the order that you got? I'm just curious. I mean, if these guys invest, what are they still investing?
Yeah.
Is this an emerging markets order or a developed market?
To be honest, it's all over the place. So we have orders from Europe, where we have very old equipment being replaced from well-known breweries, but it's as well in Asia, where we have received orders, and there's still some orders out there in South America, where we believe those orders are going to materialize the next three months as well. So it's all over the place. And I have to say, maybe that's interesting for you in the audience, that in particular, the German breweries have been quite active in ordering equipment and getting on better cost levels. So I would say they have a lot of courage in, into what they are going to do. So in particular, in Germany, investments in breweries have been pretty good in 2025, and the same looks like for 2026.
Even if you look to the market development, which is not so good, all over the globe, it's, I would say, a lot of hesitation for investments into breweries.
And is that around also a lot of energy efficiency and those environmental topics, let's say?
I would say it's more economical reasons that they in many cases bring two lines down to one with higher speeds, higher efficiency, getting better, let me say, economics, because they have less people in. That's more the investment scheme we see right now, and there's still some very old equipment out there. In case you look to bottle washers, which have, in their case, they are 25 years old, they have a significant amount of energy consumption, where they, just because of energy reasons, go to reduce that energy consumption. Or for pasteurizers, if they are old, they are horrible in terms of what they consume in water and heating.
Understood. Thank you.
Welcome.
Thanks to Sven for the question. Additional question I think I see from Adrian. Adrian Pehl?
Yes, right. Thank you. Actually, a very quick one on intralogistics. Obviously, I mean, you want to grow the business still quite substantially. So you achieved 8.4% margin in this segment last year. So I was wondering, why should we assume that the margin's not gonna see more momentum on this one? Is that due to mix, or how should we see this?
Yeah, yeah. I mean, intralogistics from, from a, let me say, profitability standpoint, in, let me say, and I would call it commodities, which I call hybrid warehouses, has been, over the years, under pressure. What we did, and this we stated as well on our capital market, is that we're looking into, let me say, more advanced order picking systems and that we have moved, let me say, the portfolio significantly. We have, let me say, a momentum that we are exploring new markets in Asia, while we have, on the other side, the mature markets in the US.
But I would say, if we look in comparison with, let me say, comparable product portfolio structures, we are doing pretty well in terms of the profitability, and we wouldn't see intralogistics necessarily being, in the short run, on the same profit levels than we see the core. That's a fact, and I wouldn't say anything wrong in case I would make the statement that's going the, immediately in the right direction. So I would say the profitability we see, we are quite happy with. Was quite an effort to be there, and I would say we can grow certainly further because, and, and this adds on the margin, because even our service business is growing, and this is not parts in this particular point.
This is more software upgrades, and helping people, customers out with Krones running their installations. So there's a different business model. Again, if we grow on installed base, I think we have a better chance in grabbing the aftermarket business, which is highly profitable in that section, and in the long run, I see a good development in terms of profitability as well, but it will be not in the short term.
All right, and very last follow-up, actually, on the service share in general for the group. I take it that actually, the service share increase is probably more pronounced as of 2027 as well, and more or less like, I think the line of communication so far has been 2025, 2026, rather, not a significant increase on the service side. Is that correct?
Yeah. I mean, if you talk about significant, it's a question of what is significant.
Right
B ut we are growing our service business, so it's still growing. It's, it's has a very solid foundation, and if we look to the first, first two months, things are in line. Is it, let me say, that you see a huge momentum in sales? No, it's, it's, it's a kind of a very constant development, and we will see, would see that even over the period of 2027, 2028. In life cycle, there is no, let me say, big jump. It's more an evolution rather than really an explosion, what you might see.
Even with the new lines we bring up, I mean, we are going to ship eight of those by the end of the year, beginning of next year, which we are harvesting on, but if it's really completely having scale, and we stated that all the time, it will be 2027-2028.
Perfect. Thank you.
Yep, welcome.
Thanks, Adrian, for the questions. So let me check the channels or ask the community. Any further questions from your side? I don't see no hand-raising, also no mails from my mail folder, so Christoph, Uta?
Yeah. I can say only thank you very much. We are beginning of the year. As always, there is, let me say, a realistic optimism we see, and you have heard me, heard from the statements we have made. We are, I would say, as we have been always, quite, let me say, committed to the numbers we have given. A lot can happen, of course, but nevertheless, we managed that and compensated that with the markets we have. We are looking with realistic optimism forward, and even looking with a realistic optimism to our 2028 numbers. Thanks a lot for staying with us and having your questions. Was a pleasure, as always. Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Thanks to you.
Thank you.