Deutsche Lufthansa AG (ETR:LHA)
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Apr 30, 2026, 5:35 PM CET
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Status Update
Jun 14, 2021
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for making the time to join our conference call today. Here with me are Lufthansa Group CEO, Carsten Spohr and CFO, Rem Costin Dagen. Together, we look forward to discussing our medium term plans, our financial targets for 2024 and our measures to return to a strong balance sheet. You will find our press release and our presentation, which we published last night and which Karsten and Remco will be referring to in their prepared remarks in the Investor Relations section of lufthansergroup.com.
Over to you, Karsten. Yes.
Thank you, Dennis, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thanks for joining our call on quite some short notice, but obviously, you understand why that was necessary. It's really only a few weeks ago when we spoke last time. It was the end of April. And you might recall that we found ourselves In the middle of the 3rd wave of those days, increasing incident rates, very little progress, at least over here
in Europe, on the
vaccination campaigns. And since then, things have significantly changed to the better. The incidence rate in Germany, at least, which was around EUR 170,000,000 when we last talked to you in the quarter results, has now dropped to below EUR20,000,000 And there's an increasing number of completely free COVID areas sorry, completely COVID free areas in our home markets. Secondly, the vaccination campaigns have really gained momentum all over Europe. Thirdly, The EU Digital Green Pass will come into effect shortly to make travel within the European Union much easier.
And last but not least, millions of people in our home markets look forward to leaving the past 15 months behind them And to visit friends and family again and spend their summer holidays abroad. Of course, we're not yet back to normal After this unprecedented crisis, but I think it's worth to say that in our view, it's time now to look ahead with confidence. And it's obvious to us that the acceleration of the recovery for us is at a turning point. And maybe to sum it all up and maybe the most important sentence of the whole morning today is that we, in Lufthansa, are switching from the crisis mode to the transformation mode. It's our explicit ambition as an industry leader to also lead the recovery in our industry.
And in that regard, we are confident to reach an adjusted EBIT margin of at least 8% by 2024. Our confidence is based on numerous initiatives, projects, decisions that will make Lufthansa a more efficient and a more profitable company. Additionally, a potential equity raise offer a clear path to leaving the stabilization package of Germany and eventually the other countries who helped us in the crisis behind us. That's, in the end, why we have invited you to this call this morning. Let's talk about the market opening.
In the past few weeks, global demand for air travel has picked up noticeably this both Noticeably and significantly, and capacity offered in European short haul has more than doubled within less than 3 months only. Vaccination campaigns have taken up speed after quite a slow start, and close to half of the German population at least has received one vaccine dose by now. And the 1st countries indeed are coming close to herd immunity. And as a result, new bookings at our airlines have more than doubled compared to March April levels. Bookings for the summer months have accelerated week after week since about mid May, driven by touristic, private leisure and VFR demand.
Customers book short term, that means for June July, but increasingly also for leisure trips in August early September as the confidence in the easing of restrictions and the safety of travel increases. And the longer this pandemic lasts, The more it becomes clear that also business travel will recover. Let's talk about the phases of the crisis. We have Past, as I mentioned, the low point of the crisis and compared to the Q2 of 2020, we more than halved our cash frame to €235,000,000 in the Q1 of 2021, and cash gain will be further reduced in the Q2. And based on the surge of bookings, which I just mentioned, we even expect operating cash flow to be positive in this quarter already.
In the 12 months since the beginning of the crisis, we reduced fixed cash costs by 35%, which is more or less €4,000,000,000 We have cut our investments by 2 thirds and the stabilization measures agreed upon with the governments of our home countries provide the base of our successful return to the capital markets, where we raised a record €4,500,000,000 within just a few months. At the end of the Q1, available liquidity amounted to €10,600,000,000 equaling around 50x our monthly current cash drain. We can hence focus on the structural transformation of the group now, which we have accelerated since the beginning of the crisis. We target structural cost savings of €3,500,000,000 to rightsize our cost base. We are adapting our operating model to the long term changes in the market, and we established the basis to eventually capitalize on growth in the new normal.
And in sum, we are confident to achieve an adjusted EBIT margin of at least 8% And adjusted ROCE, excluding cash, of at least 10% by 2024 as a result. And based on our medium terms, which Remco and I will outline in more detail in this presentation, we are preparing a capital increase To reestablish a sustainable and efficient long term capital structure and therefore to make an important step towards ending the Stabilization measures. With that, Remco, over to you.
Thank you, Carsten, and good morning, everyone. The long term restructuring of the group's cost base will lay the foundation for future profitable growth. The full leadership team of the Lufthansa Group is committed To use the crisis as a catalyst for change, building on the focus of cost reduction and cash generation, which has become deeply rooted in our organization since The crisis which hit us by no fault of our own. Based on our 2024 margin and capital return expectations, We target to structurally lower group wide costs by around €3,500,000,000 compared to the 2019 levels. This includes unit cost reductions at the Group Airlines amounting to a low to mid single digit percentage rate and the lowering of structural costs in all other group companies and functions.
The targeted reduction of €3,500,000,000 It's a gross number, so it's sized to offset inflation and cost headwinds we expect in certain areas, especially those subject to regulation and other non controllable market factors. By the end of the year, we expect to have secured around half of the targeted savings already. Overall, we have identified more than 1,000 Single measures across all parts of the group for which we track progress on a monthly basis. Three main drivers will account for the bulk of the savings: The reduction of personnel costs, operational simplification and overage reduction and third, the modernization and standardization of our fleet. Personnel cost reductions are targeted to amount to around €1,800,000,000 by latest 2024.
Half of the savings, I. E. Around €900,000,000 have been achieved already, even when excluding the effect of the divestiture of LSG Europe. This is mainly the consequence of the reduction of almost 26,000 employees since the start of the crisis. Going forward, we expect an effect of almost €200,000,000 from the current restructuring at Swiss, where around 1700 full time positions will be reduced by the end of the year, including the forced dismissal of around 550 employees.
In Germany, we aim to reduce personnel costs through a combination of collective agreements, Voluntary departures and forced dismissals, in total equivalent to a headcount reduction of up to 10,000 positions. For this purpose, we have launched voluntarily redundancy programs for the grounds and admin personnel at Deutsche Lufthansa AG and Lufthansa Technik. An additional voluntary program for the cockpit personnel is planned to follow in the second half of this year. In addition, we target to turn the existing crisis agreements with Veranikung Cockpit and Verdi, which rule out forced dismissals in both work groups until the end of 2021 Q1 of 2022, respectively, into long term agreements that ensure the required sustainable cost reductions so that more jobs can be saved. Any remaining cost overrun will have to be addressed and will be addressed with further voluntary programs and forced dismissals.
Non personnel related structural cost savings are expected to amount to approximately €1,700,000,000 Let me highlight our key initiatives to simplify our operations and reduce overhead costs. We have used the momentum created by the crisis To reduce organizational complexity, we closed SunExpress Deutschland in the process of bundling our touristic long haul business in just one operation, Eurowings Discover. The Eurowings business in Germany is operated in only one AOC now, thanks to the discontinuation of flight operations at Germanwings, And we have shut down multiple bases at smaller airports in Germany and Austria and closed various businesses and sites at Lufthansa Technik. In operations, we see great opportunities to increase synergies between the airlines. While it's important to adapt the offer of our airlines to the specifics Of their respective home markets, we strive to further standardize non customer facing systems and processes.
For example, this includes The standardized joint management and maintenance of aircraft and engines 2, the standardization of pilot and crew training stations Across the airlines. And 3, the use of the same state of the art systems for technical control, operations control and crew planning. Overall, we target to half the number of operating systems in the area of operations. Measures to streamline group overhead costs include not only personnel reductions, but also the downsizing of office space, the reduction of external Consulting and marketing expenses, the renegotiation of key supplier contracts and the change to a more digital and more cost efficient approach and our ways of working. When it comes to our Fleet 2, it's all about modernization and standardization.
The downsizing, which the crisis had made necessary, has greatly accelerated our transition to a more modern, more sustainable and more homogeneous fleet. Since the beginning of the crisis, we have decided to phase out 115 aircrafts, primarily the very long haul planes such as the 380 and the older Boeing 747s, but also the oldest parts of our short haul fleet, including legacy aircrafts such as the -eight. As a result, the number of aircraft types in operation in our long haul fleet will shrink by 8 more quickly than initially planned. This will not only lower fuel costs and improve our environmental footprint, but also reduces the hidden cost of complexity in areas such as maintenance and crew training and deployment. It will also lower the ratio of reserve aircrafts And support higher aircraft productivity, coupled with further efficiency improvements that we're implementing in our network.
By 2023, based on our current capacity outlook, we plan to have around 650 aircrafts in operation compared to 800 before the crisis. The latter included around 30 wet leases, which we have terminated in the meanwhile. We will reduce our fleet by approximately 230 aircrafts and add 80 new aircrafts over this period. The latter will include around 60 new technology A320 family short haul aircrafts and around 20 long haul aircrafts, including The Boeing 787s, of which we will start taking delivery of towards the end of this year, additional A350s and the first new Boeing 777 in 2023. Finally, Lufthansa Cargo will add another 777F Still in 2021.
The continued modernization of our fleet will go hand in hand with the sustainable reduction in capital expenditures compared to pre crisis levels. We will continue to make use of attractive low cost aircraft financing options, Such as the Japanese operating leases, the so called YOKOs, to finance straight purchases as Lufthansa has done successfully in the past. We will also consider operating leases depending on the required flexibility and the financial conditions offered by lessors. So the kind of financing of new aircrafts will be decided on a case by case basis depending on the strategic and financial considerations. Overall investments, of which around 2 quarters will remain aircraft and engine related, are expected to be around 2 €500,000,000 in 2023 2024, while being lower in 2021 2022.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for listening to me. Dear Carsten, over to you.
Yes. Thanks, Remco. And I want to talk a little bit about the group transformation initially. And I think it's obvious that the rightsizing of our cost base is key to our future. It will provide the means to drive our transformation, And we are committed to position the group so it can seize also future opportunities and therefore emerge as a structural winner in our industry.
We will focus on capturing market opportunities based on our strength in strategic markets and also in The way the industry will recover, we believe there will be options for us. We will further enhance customer Centricity, deliver an individual and seamless travel experience. Digitalization will play an increasingly important role in this aspect As does sustainability, where we are committed to decarbonization driven by technological innovation. And finally, we are dedicated to streamlining our processes and our portfolio. Our strategy remains firmly based on the multi hub system of our Network Airlines.
We call Europe's Economically strongest markets are our home markets. This economic strength, however, is regionally distributed, And multiple smaller catchment areas require a bundling of demand for our intercontinental traffic. And in this regard, an efficient and sufficiently dense feeder network is the prerequisite for operating a successful long haul business of the hubs in Frankfurt, Munich, Zurich, Brussels and Vienna. And we are confident that both businesses, short haul and long haul, will turn profitable very soon again once we have progressed further in the recovery. And in the early stages of the recovery, The crisis slated fall in passenger volumes will even favor hub over point to point traffic, where demand on many routes will remain too small to operate them in a profitable way.
Our long haul business is set to benefit disproportionately not only from the expected shape of the recovery, but also from long term growth trends. The transatlantic, where our airlines and our partners from United and Canada have a leading market share, is expected to recover fastest. After the lifting of travel restrictions for vaccinated U. S. Citizens in many European countries, we're looking forward to see Germany following this.
And we expect opening steps on the other side of the Atlantic also in due course. And accordingly, we plan to ramp up Capacity significantly in July. By the end of August, we'll be back to 90% of our long haul Network in terms of destinations, and we'll be serving 100% of our U. S. Destinations.
The recovery of the U. S. Sorry, of the Asia Pacific is expected to be somewhat slower compared to the transatlantic. However, as the leading European flag carrier on routes to Asia, we are best positioned to capitalize on the high levels of growth expected medium term in these markets. The joint ventures we operate in all major long haul markets We'll support a coordinated restart among our partners and us.
And in sum, those joint ventures account for 70%, seven-zero percent of our long haul revenues before the crisis. And their value for the customer, be it greater connectivity, optionality, Ease of transfer, those options and advantages will weigh even heavier as long as global networks have not been fully reestablished. And commercially, the joint offer, the joint distribution, the joint pricing will help us steering the capacity in sync with the recovery of customer demand and regulatory steps to reopen the markets. And we expect this to support yields and profitability during the restart. When it comes to customer segments, The recovery in VFR and leisure travel will likely outpace the corporate segment also in the next months.
And duty of care considerations will hold back traveling initially, especially among the large corporate customers. Also beyond the immediate crisis, we forecast videoconferencing and sustainability considerations to primarily affect short haul trips though Because in contrast, long haul trips, which often combine multiple meetings or multiple reasons for travel, will be much more difficult to substitute. On that basis, we estimate the Corporate Travel segment to recover to around at least 80% of pre crisis capacity by 2024. We obviously Plan to mitigate this effect in multiple ways. First, we will reduce the share and the number of 1st and business class seats In our long haul fleet, decommissioning of very large long haul aircraft with a high share of premium seats, as examples of 380, which we already decided last year will lead to a reduction of 30%, of course, partly compensated by new additions.
Secondly, we will adapt aircraft configurations where sensible, expanding premium economy in particular, whose contribution per square meter is 40% higher than that of a business class seat. We will take advantage of the desire among leisure travelers to enjoy more space and comfort by traveling business class, a trend which has gained momentum since the very beginning of this crisis. And finally, we will offer a record number of leisure destinations this summer, reflecting the structurally growing importance of this segment in our mix. It's also in this context, We are just launching Eurowings Discover in Germany. Eurowings Discover will focus on offering leisure long and medium haul routes Out of our German hubs, it thereby follows the blueprint of EDELWEISS, Switzerland's leading touristic airline based in Zurich and the sister company of SWISS.
During this cover, we'll be closely integrated in the feeder network of Lufthansa German Airlines to ensure maximum connectivity for our passengers. We will start operations in summer 2021 with initially 3 Airbus 330s flying to touristic destinations such as Windhoek in Namibia, Las Vegas or Mauritius. In the coming winter season, additional 330s and also 320s will be added to its fleet in order to also cater to medium haul warm water destinations such as the Canary Islands, for example. Based on high productivity and efficient processes, we expect the cost structure of Eurowings Discovered to be materially below our network airlines. And it's important to say that Eurowings Discovery is managed independently of Eurowings.
With the later, it only shares its brand, and therefore, it benefits from the strong broad reach of this Touristic Brand. Eurowings has made enormous progress, by the way, in its restructuring process, which started, as you would like to call, even before the crisis. The Eurowings fleet has been modernized and standardized and consisting of now solely Airbus 320 family aircraft. As mentioned already, Aramco reduced operational complexity by closing 2 AOCs in Germany and by terminating all external year round wet leases. Since 2019, Eurowings achieved an overhead cost reduction of more than 30% with aircraft and crew productivity to be improved once traffic levels come back to normal.
Overall, CASK are targeted to be almost 20% lower in 2024 compared to 2019 levels, which is basically around €0.05 Taking into account Eurowings Yield premium over low cost competitors, this is a very competitive cost level. Preserving its strategic focus On those segments expected to recover the fastest, leisure and VFR, Eurowings is well positioned to earn profit margins at least in aligned with the overall group in the medium term. Let's talk about the customers Because all airlines and spending the entire customer journey, we have a full pipeline of innovations planned or already in execution. Based on extensive customer feedback we collected, we have decided to focus on making even more tailor made and personalized offers to our customers secondly, enhancing the travel experience by unleashing the potential of Digitalization and thirdly, by putting even more focus on sustainability. We acknowledge that these individual needs Obviously, offer.
And that's why we let our customers select which services they would like to enjoy and which services they therefore pay for. That's why our new business class to be launched in 2023 will offer different seat options, and that's why we give customers a broader And better choice between different food and beverage options on European short haul flights. What unites all our customers, however, It's the wish to be constantly kept informed, especially when things are not going according to plan. We have, therefore, significantly expanded Digital customer service options since the beginning of the crisis and with the launch of innovative biometric services, Our customers now enjoy the latest technology also for seamless and therefore even more comfortable travels. With the standardization of booking platforms across the group airlines, we will enable customers to move seamlessly between the different airline worlds and to make booking flight intuitive and easy.
Seeking a consistent customer experience, we consolidate our digital touch points with our customers. This is another prerequisite for the personalization of our offer, for example, based on past general patterns, which I've highlighted before. Maisons and More, which is Europe's largest figure flyer program, ties in closely with that. While Symone will be more than just a classic awards and benefits program, it is key to create long lasting customer relationships, Also embracing loyal customers who fly less than the classic business travelers and also with a strong focus on sustainability. The expansion of direct distribution is key for much of what I just have described.
Direct distribution allows us to control the entire customer journey and to make relevant individual offers, creates a modern retail experience. We have constantly increased the share of direct distribution from only 30% in 2015 to over 20 sorry, over 50% in 2019. And by 2024, we target direct distribution channels to account for 75% of our bookings. And that, of course, around the world, including places like Africa, where there's still quite and other infrastructure in place. Direct distribution enables dynamic pricing, and direct distribution also facilitates the sale of ancillary services.
Costs are lowered because GDS fees and the related customer surcharges no longer apply. This helps us to offer more attractive prices for our customers, especially in very priced competitive markets. Meanwhile, sustainability is an integral offer or part of our offer in the way customers make their travel decisions. That's become a key element of our license to operate, so we must reflect it in all aspects of our strategy. Of course, sustainability has many different elements: climate protection, noise reduction, the avoidance of waste, just to name a few.
But let me focus on the most material one, climate protection and the reduction of net CO2 emissions. We are committed to drastically reducing our environmental footprint. By 2,050, we target to be Net carbon neutral. By 2,030, we aim to have halved our net emissions. The technological innovation holds the key to decarbonization, fleet renewal, technical retrofits Such as our newly introduced AeroShark skins and adapted operational procedures alone will make a 10% to 15% contribution to our 2,030 reduction target.
And sustainable aviation fuels are expected in this to contribute between 5% 10%, very much dependent on their availability and their prices. The entire aviation system and the producers must join forces to We commercialize the current production efforts. We are willing to lead such a corporation wherever possible. In addition, regulators and the governments have to establish the basis for greener aviation. This is, for instance, applying to research or mentioned development initiatives for SAAS Manufacturing.
If a single European Sky makes Its announced contribution, another 5% to 10% will be added. And the remaining difference to the target will be achieved through compensation and offsetting. Since long, we have been participating in the EU ETS scheme with Costia now following. Our corporate customers are increasingly choosing green fares to offset the business travel, and our compensate platform gives private travelers the choice between offsetting and buying subs for their flight. We're also transforming the way we work.
The reduction of more than 20% of leadership positions has helped to streamline the organization, reduce complexity and accelerate decision making processes. The organizational separation of Lufthansa German Airlines ensures a clear split of Group and Airline Responsibilities. We also have cut back the Matrix organization in some areas. The core airline functions, we put even more focus on it to increase synergies significantly. Across the organization, we strive to ensure that all business units carry full entrepreneurial and P and L responsibility.
As a result, the group's Management Board will be able to focus even more on the group strategy, strategic capital allocation and value creation. The constant evaluation of our portfolio is another essential part of this. As announced before, the group is in the process of evaluating options for partial divestiture in Lufthansa Technik. We continue to consider Lufthansa Technicolor to the group because of the multiple synergies with the airlines. However, this will still allow selling or listing a minority stake of this business.
For AirPlus and the LSG Group, full divestitures are targeted once the market environment allows the fair value to be realized. We expect the progressing market recovery to add further momentum to these 2 divestiture processes. With that, back to Remco.
Thank you, Carsten. Based on the strategic and operational measures and the related Cost savings actions we just presented, we target at least an 8% adjusted EBIT margin by 2024. In addition, we target a capital return measured as adjusted ROCE excluding cash of at least 10% by 2024. Note that we will adjust ROCE for cash related items going forward, in line with common practice in our industry. All targets are based on expected capacity amounting to 90% to 95% of 2019 levels In 2024 and the shape of recovery by region and customer segments, which Carsten outlined.
We are confident to limit the unit revenue decline to a low single digit percentage rate. Unit costs are targeted to decline at a low to mid single digit percentage rate, taking into consideration our ambitious cost saving targets. Of course, we expect the reduction to be even larger when we reach pre crisis capacity levels. Finally, CapEx of around €2,500,000,000 in 2023 2024 will support free cash flow generation, expected to be at least €2,000,000,000 in 'twenty three and 'twenty four. Ladies and gentlemen, the strengthening of our balance sheet back to pre COVID levels is a journey.
With our presentation today, we try to map out this journey in as much detail as possible. Knowing that The ability will remain key. We are ready to adapt our plans to different recovery scenarios as required. So let me conclude by saying that we are strongly committed: 1, to pull all levers to reach positive results and free cash And regain our strong balance sheet as soon as possible so that we reach our midterm targets by latest 2024 to part ways with parts of our businesses which we are not the perfect owner. To exit the stabilization by the government of our home markets, the sooner the better.
Capital increase for which we are currently making preparations will be important milestone in this regard. Dear Carsten, back to you.
Yes. Thanks, Remco. And ladies and gentlemen, let me just summarize so we have time for your questions. We are very convinced, and as I said,
the
most important sentence is turning from the crisis mode to the transformation mode, That this transformation will in Lufthansa make Lufthansa a stronger, more efficient and a more profitable, more customer focused And a more sustainable company. And we are confident to get there because we have taken decisive action to ensure liquidity during the pandemic And obviously, to respond to the unprecedented disruptions caused by the corona crisis, We have made strong progress in implementing key restructuring actions, which will create a stronger, more resilient business. We enjoy a leading position in our industry in terms of innovation, and we constantly enhance our product and make it more convenient, More individual was sustainable, solidifying our competitive advantage in this area. And we have aligned Financial management in a way to strengthen the balance sheet and drive very attractive returns. And with that, we now look forward to your questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer First question comes from the line of Roxanne Haradaur Doose with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you very much for taking my questions. 3, please. First, as bookings Start to improve, is price elasticity improving as well? Is it possible to stimulate traffic with price discounts?
And what yield trends relative to 2019 shall we expect in June July? 2nd, on medium term restructurings, With long haul flights having a disproportionate high CO2 emission and with a slower recovery in the corporate segment, Does it make sense to have overlaps between the long haul networks in Frankfurt, Munich and Zurich? Or shall we expect restructurings of the long haul networks over the next years? And 3rd, Cargo has been the best performing part of the business since the start of the crisis. Do you Any sustainable benefits in this segment post COVID?
And do you see the potential for cargo to bridge the gap Of corporate traffic until this will no disability recovery in 2024. Thank you very much.
Yes. Thank you very much. Price elasticity, I think it's important to understand that, of course, all the yield management systems have never seen what they are seeing now. It's a lot of manual experience going into this process. And I'm happy to say that we see quite some good discipline across the market when it comes to pricing.
And with the load factors going up much faster than we thought, also our pricing optimization systems are kicking in. So we don't see basically with all, of course, marketing we do to fill our airplanes, we don't see yields Being depressed as some people were afraid. Restructuring, I answered that many times. We have the 5 wealthiest home markets As our home markets and not to offer long range from Vienna or not to offer long range from Brussels to Africa to the U. S.
To Washington would be crazy. So we will destroy value by limiting our long range to less than the 5 hubs where we're operating it now. We did take a long range away from Dusseldorf. So it's from 6 to 5, but those 5, we're currently planning to stay there, obviously, with much Smaller networks in Vienna and Brussels compared to the 360 global networks we are offering out of Frankfurt, Munich and Zurich. Cargo, indeed, there's two reasons to believe that some of the effects we have seen in Cargo Grundberg pandemic will continue.
E commerce is Even more on its rise after this pandemic than it has been before, and Lufthansa Cargo plays a huge role in e commerce And that, we believe, is the customer segment to stay. And also, I think it's worth to say that Germany, which, of course, is our strongest cargo market, maintains its role in the global export environment. Exports in Germany Continue to be strong. Look at the car industry alone. And in our modesty, Lufthansa Cargo is taking a huge advantage of that strong position in our home market of Germany in terms of its export focus.
Thank you very much.
The next question comes from the line of James Hollins with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning. Thank you. 2 for me, please. The first one I see on your midterm targets, you've assumed fuel at 57 Dollars a barrel.
I was wondering how your capacity plans and cost program might change if we were to see fuel At around the $73 per barrel we're currently seeing. The second one is on the operating cash flow positive in Q2. I I was wondering if the change for, I think, your previous guidance was for €200,000,000 outflow per month. Is the change entirely down to that surge in bookings? And maybe you could quantify the new guidance on monthly inflows for Q2?
Thank you.
Good morning, James. Remco here. Let me take those two questions. In the fuel forecasting, we take The current fuel curves, as we have also indicated, so that's where it's based on. Of course, when fuel prices Would change.
Of course, there is also a pricing element in what we have to charge our customers as we expect competition to do. So we will see no difference in our EBIT targets or profitability guidance based on a different oil price As we currently see. On your second question, the indication of the what we call the cash drain, which is basically the EBITDA, we had in Q1 an outflow of €235,000,000 We guided for Q2 €200,000,000 negative per month on average. We expect that to be less, right, in Q10, the €200,000,000 We are performing better than that number. But with the inflow of all the bookings, We expect the operating cash flow to enter positive.
So that's the combination of those two elements. But equally on the EBITDA or the cash Great. We're also performing better at this point than we guided in April.
Okay. Thanks very much.
Next question comes from the line of Stephen Furlong with Davy. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, Parsten. Good morning, Remco. I'm Dennis. Yes, just really one question.
I mean, in terms of the medium to target over 8 Margin on returns, I mean, I see you like we're broadly there in 2017 2018. But I mentioned in Eurowings, where you talk about obviously taking advantage of the leisure recovery there, the profit Stability levels will be in line with the overall group. So you go back to kind of pre crisis, clearly, Eurowings was loss making maybe a little Profitable in 2017. So is it that you think Eurowings will be kind of at margins like the group? Or is that what you're kind of forecasting?
Well, indeed, that's what I was trying to say. Maybe I need to look at what I actually said, but that's exactly what I was trying to say. We believe that with the restructuring in Eurowings, which It's a lot stronger and even more significant than the restructuring in the group in general. We'll turn that business not only back into the positive, But indeed, on a level of profitability compared to the rest of the group. And we have cleaned up the fleet.
We have taken long range out. We are focusing on 1 AOC in Germany, took more than a third of the overhead out. And also the competitive landscape in Germany It's changing to the advantage of Eurowings. Other competitors are pulling back from the German markets or at least are shrinking in Germany. So I'm very optimistic on Eurowings indeed.
Okay. Thanks, Garf.
Next question comes from the line of Daniel Ruska with Bernstein Research. Please go ahead.
Good morning, gentlemen. 3 then, if I may. The first one, little bit strategic on the short haul travel. You mentioned the potential impact on short haul business trips you're expecting. Business needs Kind of big cities in Europe on long haul with the frequency and connectivity on long haul.
But leisure on short haul typically are not just The big leisure the big city destinations and not as high frequency. And so kind of how does that short haul network that you need to feed the long haul business, How does that fare in a market that's more leisure on short haul? What effect does that have on your short haul? 2nd, you talked about your Plan to achieve 75% of the non GDS bookings by 2024. And I remember at the outset kind of breaking free of the GDS and the lack of Availability of IT solutions was a big problem in the direct distribution landscape.
Could you talk about your IT strategy here And if you think there are now providers in the market, maybe even among the GTSs, something like Farelogix, Who help you with the direct distribution? And is it more a buy or more a build strategy from here on out in the direct distribution IT? And then lastly for Remco. You still are planning moderate fleet growth past 2023, But you're planning to keep CapEx below D and A. How does that work?
And is there possibly then a CapEx hike later in the cycle? Thanks.
Yes, Oscar, Schubert Morgan. On your first question on network, I mean, that's the what the miracle you can do if you have a fleet, which On short haul ranges from Canard Airs with 90 seats all the way to 321 with more than 200 seats. So you'll see the 321 going to Athens And going to Mallorca, and you see the Canet Air going to Timisoara or to a small place in Denmark or Norway. So we do that Answer to your question via aircraft sizing, of course, we maintain the connectivity in all our banks to the key Business destinations, that's a very backbone of our business. As you know, we fill a 350 in Munich with about 50 feeding flights Similar in Frankfurt, and these speeding flights, as you rightly point out, are less leisure focused but more corporate focused.
And that's why if anything is visible in terms of adapting our network, we do that mainly via aircraft and gauge Size and less via frequency. We will be maintaining those 4 frequencies a day to Toulouse or other business destinations to fill our long range. No change in that, if at all, again, we change the depth, sometimes by day, the gorge size. On the second question on direct distribution, indeed, The answer, are we being helped by innovations in this market? The answer is a clear yes.
And it's neither build or buy. It's both. But as you also recall, we usually tend to have a high element of build in there. We are convinced to be the industry leader on direct distribution Around the world, and therefore, we will continue to build our own systems where necessary and to separate us from others, but also We have very flexible agreements with GDS providers or with other new entries into the markets where buying is part of our strategy. And there's examples like Theralogic, where we indeed find a good mix between what's off the shelf and what do we customize and the new platforms like airline.com we're developing ourselves are the mix which you are rightly pointing out in your question.
And Daniel, Remco here. Let me take your 3rd question. If you look at our CapEx last year and also the guidance we have given for this year, you see that we are investing Significantly less also in line with the flights we the aircrafts we have taken out. Once we come back more in Normal situation in 2023, 2024. And equally, the years after, we target the CapEx to be in line with the depreciation and amortization, also in line with what we Expect with the top line.
And we expect with that level of investment, we which is still a significant amount of money, we shouldn't forget €2,500,000,000 per year in investment, That this can also catch up with a normal growth percentage we expect in those years. So it's not only for 2022, 2024. And a good investment portfolio holds that in line with depreciation and amortization.
Thanks. And maybe just to clarify on that last point, the CapEx you're showing and targeting here below D and A, is that kind of your Gross all in, including leasing? Or are leases the Jolkos or maybe op leases beyond that CapEx figure?
No, it's an all in number.
Okay. Thanks.
And you should not forget, Oskar, it's a very good time to go aircraft shopping. You get a lot more for 2.5 now than you got for 2.5 2 years ago.
Next question comes from the line of Neil Glynn with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Good morning. I'll also grab 3, please. The first one, just following on from the previous Eurowings question. You've moved, I think, about 80 320 family units from Eurowings to Lufthansa mainline as part of your simplification of Eurowings. Well, I assume those 80 aircraft were performing worse than the ones that remain within Eurowings.
And I just wanted to understand the economic impact at a group level. What's the profitability outlook for these aircrafts? Do they does their performance actually improve or do they just leave the group? Then the second question with respect to free cash flow generation. Remco, you mentioned, I think, euros 2,000,000,000 per annum, 2023 2024.
But how do you manage the interim period? I noticed CapEx creeping up for this year. So for next year, is it imperative that you generate positive free cash flow in the context of the capital raise? Or is it still quite transitional? And then the third question with respect to restructuring.
I think it's quite clear that you're trying to simplify decision making and Expedite things in terms of decision making. But can you give us an example of what actually changes, perhaps whether it's Evidence from the past of where speedier decision making would have produced a better outcome? Or is it more likely to be a focus on Fairer competition for capital across the businesses, for example.
Excuse me, Mr. Spohr, we cannot hear you.
Leo, sorry. I was Trying to gather what the very first question of yours was implying because the 3 of us here don't believe that we got it right. As you know, we closed down Germanwings. Of course, the aircraft from Germanwings were moved both to Eurowings and to Lufthansa. We reduced the number of aircraft in Eurowings, at the same time, modernized the fleet there, but maybe you give us one more chance to understand the first question.
Absolutely. I guess, so theoretically, if those 80 ish planes were losing money under Eurowings And now they've been absorbed by Lufthansa Mainline. What is the future for the performance of those planes? Do they become a lot more profitable because they're operated by Lufthansa mainline or actually I'm sorry
to interrupt you. The number is wrong. We didn't move The aircraft for Eurowings. We obviously took the long range out in Eurowings. We took SunExpress out, which was Considered to be part of Eurowings, but that eight-0 is way too high.
They are now operating probably 100 aircraft next year in total in Eurowings. I think we were at a total of 160 before, including long range, including wet leases and all that, but there is not a number of 8 0 aircraft moved across the group. So that is I'm sure, Dennis, you can take that up later on. There must be some misunderstanding there. What we did to do, we cleaned up the fleet And in Eurowings, and we announced actually even today that we brought back up to 80 aircraft in Eurowings into service From down to 10 in the beginning of the year, so maybe that was the confusion.
So the CEO of Eurowings announced last night That we now have 80 I think it's 81 to be precise aircraft back into operation and we go back up to 100 next year. So Eurowings cleaned up the fleet, cleaned up the AOC landscape, cleaned up the overhead. Our fleet very positive on that. 2nd one will be done by Remco. On the 3rd one, I think fleet is always a great example.
When we now buy airplanes, we buy them There's a so called gray fleet, who is boards of the group, then we allocate them to the AOCs where they contribute the highest return of investments. In the old days, every network planning department of every airline was making its own dimensioning dreams and wishes. We now do that much more centrally and make sure that we allocate aircraft to create maximum returns. That's one example. Standardization of aircraft, we don't Do that necessarily anymore that we allow every airline to specify its own aircraft.
We do that centrally. But some other examples. We decided to reduce more or less 30,000 people within weeks From 140,000 before the crisis to 110,000 in the middle of the crisis. We closed the flight school in Bremen, which For decades has been a very core element of Lufthansa. We have done the restructuring in Swiss, Which we just announced in these days, I think within weeks of arrival of the new CEO.
So I think if you look at us in the last years Compared to how we did things then and how we're doing things now, I think you can see the further acceleration, which we already achieved over the last years to speak up even in the last month.
Neil, let me take the second question. For 2022, for the full year, We are targeting expecting a positive operating cash flow for the full year. For the free cash flow, it's a little bit too early To say that really also depends how 2022 ends out and what level it will end up. But as soon as we can say something more here, we will get back to you.
Many times.
Next question comes from the line of Muneeba Kayani with Bank of America Global Research. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Three questions, please. Firstly, on the near term bookings on Slide 3. Can you quantify how much the bookings are as a percent of 2019 levels? And what's your Expectation on the transatlantic opening given the news flow from G7 and EU Commission kind of in the last couple of days.
Secondly, on fleet on Slide 9, can you help us understand what's the breakdown of those deliveries in 2021, 2022, 2023? And then the third question, just in terms of the capital raise, are you still targeting net debt to EBITDA from the 3.5 times for in terms of the capital rates. Thank you.
Good morning. If I got your first question right, the news flow from opening. I think it's Important to differentiate. The EU weeks ago has decided to recommend member states to open for vaccinated non European travelers, which Many European countries have implemented by now. Latest France, also Italy, Greece and Croatia some time ago.
We're now waiting for Germany to also go along with that and allow non vaccinated non Sorry, vaccinated non Europeans to be allowed into Germany. That's probably days away. But to be honest, for our business model, it's almost more important that Southern European countries and Eastern European countries have opened up because that's where we transfer people to then to have Non Europeans visit Germany itself even though we are a wonderful country to visit. So for us, part of the effect is already there. Our aircraft from the U.
S. Are filling up while we speak, Germany and other Europeans, to be added to the list of companies countries opening very quickly. The other way around, Europeans going to the U. S, we don't know. I think nobody knows.
There's various rumors in the market that something will happen in July. So we expect that to be in effect for us the second half of the summer, and we are increasing our schedule to and from the U. S. After the 1st week in July significantly. That was your first question.
Number of aircraft over the years, Let me see if we find that quickly here. The number of aircraft types is 787s, more 350s and 777s In 2023, but if you want to break down exactly per year, then we'll give it to you, but it's more or less broadly Distributed between those 80 aircraft and the 3 years. The exact numbers you could of course provide if you want them. And I'll hand over to Remco for the capital increase question.
In terms of the balance sheet structure, There are 2 things which are important. 1 is the liquidity levels. As said before, we target the liquidity level after the crisis Between SEK 6,000,000,000 and SEK 8,000,000,000 in the combination of RCF and physical cash. So it's not all cash, and we do that in the most efficient way possible, but that we have A larger buffer than we were handling in the past from a liquidity perspective. Secondly, from a debt and equity level, we target net debt over EBITDA indeed of less than 3.5% and in that sense also coming back To investment grade.
So you have to see all the actions we are taking, 1, because becoming more profitable or coming back to profitability Secondly, the divestments we have targeted and thirdly, what you have read about our capital raise. So that combination, we would want to come as soon as possible back to investment grade, but equally with the liquidity structure that we are Actually, with a stronger balance sheet than we had before the crisis and should something new happen that we are standing on our own feet.
I hope that answers your question.
That is clear. Just one clarification on the bookings. What are bookings today as a percent of 2019 levels at this time?
Well, they're higher because of the surge, but depends on the time frame you look at. So on a day like today, we get in more bookings than we got in 2019 because we have to, of course, close the gap. If you take the longer stretch of time, of course, they're way below. In terms of passenger numbers, maybe we are expecting 30% of passengers compared to 2019 in June, 45% of our passenger numbers compared to 2019 in July and 55% compared to 2019 in August. And we'll see that going up probably up to 70% at the rest of the year, but of course, it's There's details to be announcing that as things are changing while we speak.
So for the whole year, we're still guiding 4 0, 40%, if that's the question. But on a day like today, per hour, Today, we get in sometimes more booking. There's even some destinations where we're already flying more people to in 2019. So it very much depends on the network Element you're asking about.
Thank you.
And it's really important that the numbers I just gave you were passenger numbers. The guided 40%, of course, is capacity. So in that element, long range and short range plays a role. When it comes to pure passenger numbers, we'll be above 40% because short haul will have a higher share than long haul For the year? If you want to book a vacation, be quick, Please, if you want to fly with the Lufthansa Group.
The next question comes from the line of Jamie Robertson with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
3 from me, please. First one, slightly predictable, I guess, but could you just Remind us how you see the adjusted EBIT margin improvement by division. For example, cargo Was breakeven in 2019 and then had its super normal 28% margin in 2020. Where do you see that normalizing Within the target for the group to be 8%, perhaps you could comment on the other businesses as well. 2nd question, Again, coming back to this expectation near term of an operating cash positive in Q2.
Remco, could you give us any sense of the magnitude of the working capital inflow you've seen, thanks to the A surge in bookings and any implications for Q3 operating cash when you'll obviously fly those flights. And is this what I might call a genuine cash generation? Or are you still getting some help from deferring payments like the taxes at Technik? 3rd and final question. It sounds like you see Eurowings Discover as a sensible tool for targeting long haul leisure In a post COVID world, but 3 aircraft going to 11 doesn't sound like very many in the context of the group.
I mean, would you be ready to reallocate aircraft from the mainline carriers if that became appropriate?
Jamie, let me take the first two questions, at least start with this. So In terms of the margin by division, yes, you've seen, of course, very good results of cargo also in Q1, and we expect Cargo to come to record breaking results this year, and we're very happy with that. But If you still keep in mind that in the coming years, the passenger airlines, right, across the industry will be less, right? So the belly capacity in that sense will be less. We expect Hill Cargo to also continue with good profitability levels for coming years, albeit, of course, it's lower than what we Expect for this year and what we had last year.
We should not forget that while cargo is a very has been historically a volatile business, right, The returns, if you think about EBIT over capital employed, Carco, is a very, very good business to be in. And in the coming years, we expect that volatility to be less because of the belly capacity To be less than in the past. And in that sense, we will be, of course, careful in putting additional investments in because We want to maintain that in the total industry, but we will be looking for opportunities where we can think we can get good returns. If you think about margins across the other businesses, you should expect margins to come back what you have seen Historically, we're of course and also mentioned earlier in the call, we expect Eurowings to really turn from a loss making division into a profitable division. And we would also expect that Brussels and Austrian also become a positive again in the years to come.
So in that sense, we are looking across the businesses in a way which is supporting the overall results of the group. If you look at the operating cash flow and your question for Q2 and for Q3, As I said before, in Q2, the EBITDA or the cash drain being less than €200,000,000 on average per month with the Bookings coming in. We expect the operating cash flow to be positive. There's no help in here from other elements of the fear of payments. In the second half of this year, we do expect to start repaying on some of the taxes benefit we had had in Technik.
So that should impact the operating cash flow negative. Equally, if bookings are further coming up in Q3, That should have some conversation as well. We continue with our strict working capital. And how does then exactly net net pans out in Q3? I think that's a bit too early to comment on, but I hope this gives you some of the data points where we currently stand.
Yes. And your question on Eurowings discovery, indeed, it's 11:30s. We are Planning to operate there by early 2022 plus 10 Airbus 320 for mid Hall? Our routes like the Canaries, so that's 21 aircraft compared to Edelweiss, which is our blueprint that's already quite a bit bigger. But indeed, the business model goes well.
It's very much depending on the cross tourism industry. It's Opening new destinations for Lufthansa, Salt Lake City, Fort Myers, Kilimanjaro in Africa. So it's a lot of innovation in terms of the network in there. If it turns out to be as positive as we think, we indeed can grow that business. It's important, I think, to understand that after settling the pilot conflict Between 2014 2017, we don't have any scope clause anymore, so we can grow the business depending on the market requirements and the profitability we can achieve there.
In the end, it's all about strict capital allocation based on performance.
You bet. Thank you, guys.
Next question comes from the line of Andrew Lobbenberg with HSBC. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Can I just stay on Eurowings Discover for a moment? Because part of the story of the improvement at Eurowings is Simplifying it and having fewer AOCs. And suddenly, we're putting you're putting A320s into Eurowings Discover. So is that because Eurowings Discovered can operate at lower costs than Eurowings?
So why are we adding another low cost On value based 320 operation, when I talk, we're focused on simplifying. In terms of the organizational structure, I mean, would you just I mean, are you in principle aiming for the structure that IAG sits with? Is that what we're emulating? And how far down the road are you with the extraction of Lufthansa Passager from the group? And then just a third question, I guess.
The environmental debate in Germany is moving very, very fast In the context of the election that's playing out. But how comfortable are you with The latest commentary out of the various political parties, how concerned are you about the call from the Green Party to Midterm remove domestic short haul flying, at least I think that's what they said at the weekend.
Yes, Andrew, thanks. On Eurowings' cover, a couple of additions to that. It's a fully integrated commercial model in our hubs, whereas the Eurowings, Out of the non hubs is operating on a Navitaire platform, which is, as we know, focused on point to point traffic. So Let's call them the original Eurowings outside the hubs. They remain outside the hubs with Navitaire as a platform point to point.
Eurowings Discover In the Amadeus world, fully integrated into our commercial model here in Frankfurt and in Munich like Edelweiss is in Zurich And complementing our network. That's why the big difference between those two is not the fleet, but it's rather how are they commercially integrated. We had 3 AOCs before operating our long haul outside of the Lufthansa brand in Germany, City Line, Eurowings, I'm doing it with SunExpress Germany and with Brussels Airlines in Dusseldorf. So simplifying all that to the new EOC, We're adding the short haul operation, which we also had in the hubs before on 2 different AOCs into the same one, And that will be like Edelweiss in Switzerland, the second AOC used in the hubs besides, of course, the regional AOC we have in City Line. So we did it's a Significant simplification.
On the extraction of Lufthansa Airlines, we factually have done it. We run it now like all our other business units. The way management team is working there, the way they have the P and L responsibility, the way we allocate capital according to performance, Including the Lufthansa main airline, that is all done. The element missing is the legal extraction of the Lufthansa airline, and there are significant tax And traffic ride issues to be solved. So that's something we don't talk months, we talk years, but we already manage it as if that has Significantly also changed, I think, the attitude in the airline also how unions have to cope with the cost challenges there.
So I think the functional holding is there. And at the same time, compared to our friends in London or Madrid, I think we are a little bit further when it comes to synergy generation. I understand they are partly now copying our model to have best of both worlds, Synergies as much as you can and P and L responsibility in a decentralized fashion to maintain the entrepreneurial spirit. That's at least what we believe We are mastering in the organizational structure which we have. The political situation in Germany, I know you're following this.
You probably realized that when the Greens went out a couple of weeks ago, being quite aggressive on short haul, they got Bashed by other parties, by the media, by the population, by people in their own party. So they pulled back, And they have more important for us fully understood our business model of hubbing, which does require us to operate domestic flights. And I think, Eberlle now has understood in Germany that what the French did initially sounded great in terms of PR. But if you look behind it, they have done a smart thing. We still allow short haul operations when it has connecting travelers aboard, which in our case is the whole business model based on it.
And even the Greens have just publicly stated that they understood that if we had To put the French system in place in Germany, there would be exactly one route which we would have to cancel. It's Dusseldorf Stuttgart. Everything else Falls under the same exceptions as we have them in France. So I think that discussion is more and more rationalized in Germany, to sum it up, Rather of some of the irrational beginnings in the beginning. So I'm less concerned besides that most likely the Greens will not win the election anyway.
But intermodality, for example, is something we are strongly believing, but it does take 30 years in Germany to build a new track. And some people now are saying on a railway track, there's 1,000 which are Hearing the noise every day, X times a day on an airport or on an air route, there's only 2 on either end. So I think this discussion is far from over in a densely populated country like Germany, but everybody has now understood across the party spectrum how our hub system is the backbone not only of Lufthansa, but the backbone of the German Aviation system.
Cool. Thank you.
Next question comes from the line of Johannes Barm with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have 2. Firstly, on the capital increase, obviously, appreciate that you don't give us or can't give us a timing and the size of it. But just curious, when sizing the capital increase, do you bank on the potential proceeds from the plant and divestitures?
So Would you size the capital increase by already assuming those proceeds to come in, I guess, especially to potential Partial divestiture of MRO. So that in combination with the capital increase, you would achieve the investment grade weighted balance sheet. Or would those proceeds from the divestitures come on top, so to speak? And the second question on the cargo business, obviously, Still very strong on yields. Have you ever thought about increasing the order book for the full freighters beyond the current Triple 7 order book in order to capture more of the strong cargo market?
Johannes, good morning. With regard to The capital increase, perhaps I have to restart a little bit on what we're targeting. I think number 1 is that, Of course, to be positive in terms of profitability and positive in terms of free cash flow generation, right, because that It's a sustainable element of a good balance sheet also at some point to be able to give dividends again, etcetera. That is one element. Said before as well, we need a certain level of liquidity.
And then we believe that an equity raise It's still part of the equation in combination, of course, with the divestitures. What we clearly do not want to do is to make It shares an absolute necessity and in that sense, not being able to crystallize on the value. We don't want to be there under pressure. Of course, we want to go as fast as possible, but not to be under pressure. And then it becomes a little bit Timing question overall.
Are divestitures then in or out to a certain extent therein when you have to think about AirPlus And LSG, that's part of the equation. And the time frame we are looking at on Lufthansa technique, We so far don't include that. But equally, it's to be said, it's then again just a matter of timing because then it means that the balance sheet strengthening will just happen a bit earlier than we currently plan. So we have that flexibility, and that is where we are looking at. I hope that answers your question.
On Cargo Evaan, we already did increase the number of 4 freighters in In terms of cargo, we initially always had a midterm sizing of 10 aircraft in mind. We have actually ordered 2 more in the crisis alone, total now Targeting 14 777 freighters. So that is partly not because of the pandemic developments in cargo, but our mid- and long term outlook in cargo, What we have done. And we even are looking at the short haul cargo market, which we believe could be something very interesting from a Profitability point of view. So indeed, the cargo is, as I mentioned in my opening, for us, a mid- and long term Strategic element where we want to increase our exposure even further than being number 1 in the world already.
Could you just as a follow-up, could you give us A rough idea to how much higher the cargo capacity will be after the crisis Versus, I guess, 2019?
I don't have that at hand now. Obviously, With 12 7 77 freighters, we were saying that we have the same cargo capacity as we did before Obviously, 7.7 Freighters compensate for more than 1 MG11. So 2 over 12 is, what, A little bit more than 10%, 15%. So yes, maybe 15% is a good estimate.
All right. Thank you.
But of
course, that is cargo freighters only, right? On Delhi, of course, the long range fleet will be significantly smaller Around the world, also in Lufthansa, so that is to be deducted from that. But then to make it more complicated, we are taking out aircraft With little belly capacity like the 380, and we're bringing in aircraft with quite large belly capacity, 350s and 787s. So it's a constant mix in that regard. Happy to give you more details, but the poly goes beyond this conference call.
In the end, flexibility is key also there. It's a more volatile business And therefore, always having the right amount of capacity available, which is part of the success in that business, is now for us. But there will be a favorable supply demand relationship, in our view, in the years to come.
All right. Thank you.
In the interest of time, I will hand back to Dennis Bieber.
I think we've got one more question. I think we still have time to take that.
Next question comes from the line of Satish Sivakumar with Citigroup. Please go
ahead. Yes. Thanks, Dennis, actually. I just have two questions, which actually resonates with what Andrew Flagged it and also the divestiture plans. So firstly, on the traffic mix, what is your current pure domestic Point to point exposure actually that is not related to fetal traffic.
And do you expect this mix To be unchanged as we come out of this pandemic into 2023 2024. And secondly, on the divestiture plans, Any update on the timing of divestiture of Atlas and Technic? And do you see like the capital increase Likely to be first, which will take priority actually? Because based on your answer to previous question, it looks like You might see capital increase as being the one that's been fast forwarded versus the divesture.
Yes. Let me answer the first one and Henk will take over the second one. If I we couldn't perfectly understand the question, but What I can give you as statistics is 50% of our passengers are short haul, 50% are long haul. Of the 50% which are short haul, again, fifty Percent are connecting. So that gives us about 25% of our total passengers are point to point short haul passengers.
If I got your question right, on domestic, 5% of our turnover is still coming from domestic point to point in Germany, coming down Because of trains and obviously us growing in the long haul market, stronger than the short haul market. So that was the question. Then the answer is 5% of Lufthansa's Turnover come from point to point Germany. And now on divestitures, Remco.
Let me take that question. On the divestiture timing, as we said before, we want to crystallize the right value For, say, real closure of this divestment, is that more likely to happen next year than this year? The answer on that is yes. Could it happen this year if the writeovers would come in? Absolutely.
The likelihood is much more it's going to be next year. With regard to a capital increase, We cannot comment yet on the timing. What we clearly did and what you saw also today and the reason we do the announcement, we have been on the journey from last Here on all the cost and cash savings actions really on the spot and transforming that in a structural change of the company, outline how we want to Do our business and in which structure and also the whole cost savings and the underpinning of that, we have closed on that in terms of a very concrete plan internally, and we Share that with you externally and then coming back in those midterm targets we have now outlay. In that sense, we are very, very committed. We have asked Our banks to now calibrate with the investor community based on the homework we have done, How they see us, we are very positive in this regard.
And depending on that Calibration, we will decide then on the timing of the capital increase what would make sense. But we believe we have done Our homework well here, and we have now to see what the market thinks of
us. Okay. Just actually on a follow-up on the divestiture. Given how the cargo market has actually turned out in the last 12 to 18 months, would you see it as actually an opportunity there in terms of Partial spin off of your cargo and probably you might realize more better value there versus the Atlas or Technic?
Now you need to understand that in pre COVID times and in post COVID times, 50% of our cargo capacity is done in the bellies of our passenger aircraft. So it's a highly integrated business, including the questions where do you fly to. The cargo demand has an impact On where do we fly our passenger aircraft. By the way, a lot stronger right now, but also in normal days. So that is such a Highly synergetic business to the passenger business.
You can't spin that off in our view. There's no profitable long range route without cargo. So you really need carbon in the long range network like we're operating it with almost 200 wide bodies around the world. Yes. So thanks for all these great questions, sometimes detailed questions.
But let me just remind us why we called you in today. This was not a regular quarterly call. We wanted to inform you that our transformation is being accelerated. We want to share with you why we are So convinced that we will be a structural winner in the new normal after COVID. I think we proved not only to you, but also to others that we have taken Decisive action to respond to the crisis to manage our liquidity.
We will be continuing to be the innovator or one of the innovators in this industry, 3, be it on digital issues, be it on technical issues, sustainability issues. So I think we will maintain that leading role we have in the industry. But maybe even more obvious in terms of our financial performance is that we were able to take restructuring actions in this crisis. A country like Germany as a home country, the legal system here probably wouldn't have allowed us without COVID. So I think the restructuring of this group Has been accelerated by COVID beyond what we could have done in normal times.
And put on top of that, the quite disciplined financial management, I think, we have Proven and which also my new CFO, Remco, really stands for with all his personal experience. I think all that added up will make us Even more successful player in this industry, we are the largest airline group in the world after the 3 Americans. One day, maybe the Chinese will take that Position from all 4 of us, but until then, not only in terms of size and quality, but more important when it comes to profitability, We want to maintain our top position in that exciting league we're in. So thanks for accompanying us on that journey, Also accompany us on your holiday journeys, hopefully, in the next weeks. Looking forward to welcome you on board, like we welcomed you on this call today.
Stay healthy. All the best for your families. Thanks for dialing in.