Deutsche Lufthansa AG (ETR:LHA)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2018

Apr 26, 2018

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Emma, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the conference call of Deutsche Lufthansa. Throughout today's recorded presentation, all participants are in a listen-only mode. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, you may press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Please press the star key followed by zero for operator assistance. I would now like to turn the conference over to Andreas Hagenbring, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Andreas Hagenbring
Head of Investor Relations, Deutsche Lufthansa

Thanks, Emma, good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Warm welcome to the presentation of our group results for the first quarter 2018. I've got Ulrik Svensson with me today, our CFO, and he will give you an overview on current developments and of course, present the financial figures for the first quarter. As always, you will have the opportunity to ask your questions after the presentation. Ulrik, please.

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

Thank you, Andreas. Ladies and gentlemen, a very warm welcome from me, too. Overall, we have seen a good development of the operating businesses in the first quarter of this year. The network airlines have performed strongly. They increased Adjusted EBIT by EUR 154 million to EUR 140 million. Lufthansa German Airlines has achieved a positive result with its highest first quarter margin in the last 10 years. Swiss stands out with a margin of 9.3% in this typically weak first quarter. As we already indicated at year-end, the performance of the Eurowings Group has been negatively impacted by a significant one-off cost associated with the integration of additional capacity after the exit of Air Berlin. Trading at Eurowings is very strong. Traffic revenues increased by 34% on a capacity growth of 28.8%, with a 4.2 points higher load factor and at stable constant currency yields.

Overall, the passenger airlines have continued to perform well with unit revenues going up while unit costs continue to come down, and this despite the significant one-off cost at Eurowings Group. Cargo has also continued to trade well. Its profit development has broadly offset lower results at Lufthansa Technik, where profits are now normalizing after an outstanding performance in the first quarter last year. There's also the case for others and consolidation, which had a strong positive impact on the profits in the first quarter of 2017 and are now coming down to the average levels of the years before 2017. Altogether, we are satisfied with the underlying profit development of the operating businesses, in particular with the strong performance of the Network Airlines and Cargo, and above all, continuing unit cost reductions despite significant one-off costs at Eurowings Group.

Allow me a technical remark before we look at the recent developments in more detail. In the first quarter, we have seen the first-time implementation of the new accounting IFRS 15 rules. As guided, this has reduced traffic revenue and fee expenses equally. As a result, reported revenues have remained stable despite strong growth at operating levels. I will take you through these changes today only briefly as absolute profit remains unaffected and the relative performance of the KPIs has been restated in order to reflect a true and fair view of the development of the Lufthansa Group. A more detailed breakdown of the effects is available in the annex of this presentation. The trading environment was balanced in European short haul. The significant extra capacity, in particular at Eurowings and Lufthansa German Airlines after the exit of Air Berlin, could be sold at stable unit revenues.

Trading on long haul improved as well. Transatlantic is strong with load factors and constant currency yield increasing on a moderate capacity increase. In Asia, we have seen stable yields and seat load factors on a 6.3% capacity growth. In Middle East and Africa, our smallest and most volatile region, load factor increases are basically compensating for the yield decline. Overall, yields saw a stable development on a constant currency basis. Due to increasing load factors, constant currency unit revenues increased by 1.2%. The unit cost development was negatively impacted by the anticipated one-off cost at Eurowings. Nevertheless, we were able to reduce total unit cost. Constant currency ex-fuel unit cost came down by 0.5%. The Network Airlines alone reduced constant currency ex-fuel unit cost by 1.9%. We therefore continue to expect an overall reduction of 1%-2% for the full year.

Total revenues declined by 0.7% as a result of the first-time application of the accounting rule IFRS 15 against a non-restated 2017 figure. Excluding IFRS 15, revenues would have increased by 4.5%. Fuel cost increased by EUR 11 million on the back of slightly lower than expected volumes and the strength of the euro versus the US dollar. The overall profit improvement of the passenger airlines was EUR 83 million. This was however, largely offset by an altogether stable development of the operating service companies and the significant negative impact from others and consolidation. In total, adjusted EBIT of the group remained on previous year's level, despite one-off integration costs and the significant negative effect from non-operational elements. Against year end 2017, net financial debt decreased by 27.5% on seasonally strong cash inflows in the first quarter.

Adjusted net debt or adjusted EBITDA for the trailing 12 months improved from 1.7 times to 1.6 times. This has contributed to further improve our financial stability, as is also reflected in the recent S&P upgrade of our investment grade rating outlook from stable to positive. Operating cash flow remained on previous year's levels in line with operating result. The decrease in free cash flow is mainly a function of the acquisition of Brussels Airlines last year. We had bought the company for a very low purchase price, but with a positive cash balance of EUR 200 million, which had impacted the free cash flow at the time. Pension provisions increased by EUR 425 million versus year end 2017, mainly on the back of the reduced discount rate from 2.0%-1.9%. The Network Airlines show the best performance in this quarter.

They improved their Adjusted EBIT by EUR 154 million to EUR 140 million, resulting in a strong margin improvement of 3.2 points to 2.4%. This was particularly driven by Lufthansa German Airlines and Swiss. Lufthansa was the largest contributor to the Adjusted EBIT improvement, with an increase of EUR 95 million to EUR 83 million. Swiss increased Adjusted EBIT by EUR 64 million to EUR 99 million. This is a very strong margin of 9.3% in the traditional weak first quarter. Austrian Airlines was affected by three days of employee meetings. If it had not been for that, profits would have remained broadly flat. Eurowings Group saw a EUR 71 million lower Adjusted EBIT of minus EUR 203 million. This was largely driven by one-off integration cost for the former Air Berlin assets. These one-off costs are significant in the first quarter and will continue to be so in the coming months.

They are certainly a good investment in making Eurowings a better business going forward. Lufthansa Cargo continues its strong performance with an increase of Adjusted EBIT by EUR 32 million to EUR 65 million. This is a margin increase of 4.3 points to 10.1%. The strong trading environment is expected to continue in the next months, albeit against an increasingly difficult comparable base. Lufthansa Technik saw Adjusted EBIT decline by EUR 34 million to EUR 103 million. The company is reporting against an extraordinarily strong first quarter last year, which heavily benefited from seasonal capacity utilization in aircraft overhaul and timing effects. The weaker US dollar also contributed to the lower result. LSG Group is still affected by its ongoing transformation in Europe, but the benefits should become increasingly visible from now on. Others and consolidations saw Adjusted EBIT decline by EUR 83 million to minus EUR 54 million.

The first quarter last year saw a strong improvement in their contribution and we are now returning to levels of the years before 2017. In my last presentations, I had put a particular focus on return on capital and the finance strategy. Today, I would like to show you a particular successful example of investments here at Lufthansa Group. By replacing A340s at Swiss with 777 aircraft, we have reduced unit cost, including fuel, by approximately 25% for each of those aircraft. At the same time, we increased the revenue per flight on average by some 30% at 50% additional capacity. As a result, the margin on those flights increased on average by 10%. This is an extremely attractive business case, and you have witnessed the recent margin development at Swiss.

Coming back to our results for the first quarter, we are very satisfied with the performance of the Network Airlines. We had anticipated the significant one-off cost at Eurowings and addressed this in our full year call six weeks ago. We have reduced our planned organic capacity growth slightly in light of the late deliveries of the A320neos, weather cancellations, employee meetings at Austrian Airlines, and strikes from the ground staff here at Frankfurt Airport, as well as some slower growth at Eurowings Group. We now expect additional fuel costs of EUR 600 million. This is lower than our previous guidance due to the lower capacity growth and a weaker US dollar. The operational development will be good even despite the significant one-off cost at Eurowings. From what we can see today, it will not fully compensate for the still significant increase in fuel cost.

Our guidance remains, therefore, unchanged. We continue to expect an Adjusted EBIT slightly below previous year. With that, I thank you for your attention and I'm happy to answer your questions.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on their telephone keypad. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star followed by two. If you're using speaker equipment today, please lift the handset before making your selection. Anyone who has a question may press star followed by one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. First question comes from the line of Neil Glynn with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Neil Glynn
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Hello, can you hear me?

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

Very well, indeed.

Neil Glynn
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Great. Two questions from me, please. The first one with respect to seasonality. You've obviously achieved profitability in the first quarter of 2018, following a loss last year. That's certainly something that's been a feature in the U.S. as well as among some of your European peers as they've structurally improved EBIT margins. Just interested, do you expect to be able to retain profitability in the first quarter going forward? Is profitability in each quarter a validation of structural margin improvement for you? The second question with respect to yield management in a rising fuel price environment. Just interested, have you changed anything or have you seen a greater ability to actually manage yields upwards in a more consolidated environment as the fuel price rises? Has that differed from experience in the past in a less consolidated market? Thank you.

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

Starting then with profitability in the first quarter. As we all know, most airlines indeed are making a loss in the first quarter. We are extremely happy about the development now of course, Swiss having a 9% EBIT margin in the first quarter and also Lufthansa getting very much into stable profit territory. Indeed, with the structural changes we have done over the last couple of years, we expect for Swiss and Lufthansa, this will continue. With Austrian being slightly more a leisure market, it will be tougher, however. On the second question on yields.

Indeed, a consolidation of the market is, of course, helping yields long term, but there's also a lot of other things we are doing when it comes to changing our GDS relationship, changing how we do our bookings, which will come into place into 2018, where Swiss is the first platform we are using that, which will help. It's too early to say that we can compensate the fuel through the yield fully. Thank you, Neil. Next question, please.

Operator

The next question comes from line of Jarrod Castle with UBS. Please go ahead.

Jarrod Castle
Analyst, UBS

Thank you. Good morning, gentlemen. Three, if I may. You obviously spoke about the drag in Eurowings relating to Air Berlin. Can you give any color in terms of what your estimate is now for the one-off costs relating to the integration and maybe just the profile as we move through the year through the quarters? Secondly, just in terms of cost-cutting, I understand the slow start to Q1. Obviously, you're going to have a bit of catch up as you go through the quarters to achieve the -1% to -2%. Also just in terms of the profile, how we should be thinking about how that should evolve during the quarters. Just the balance sheet, obviously, seeing further strengthening and the rating agency. Just any change in your thinking in terms of balance sheet, capital returns, share buybacks, et cetera? Thanks. Hello?

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

Yeah. Sorry. We were on mute.

Thanks for your questions. Starting with the Eurowings. This is a fantastic once in a lifetime opportunity to consolidate the German market, there are indeed a number of one-off costs. The majority of those costs are coming here in the first and in the second quarter. They are the classical project costs we have spoken about, repainting of aircraft. There are costs in connection with training and so on. There are also MRO costs. The technical level of the aircraft we are taking over from Air Berlin was not fully up to Lufthansa and Eurowings standards. There has been some less capacity due to maintenance, which we had to lease in wet lease capacity to cover. This is indeed trailing off during the course of the year, going into 2019, those costs will have been fully disappearing.

We are very confident that the total group cost reduction of guiding 1% to 2% for the year will absolutely be there. I think that's very visible with the network airlines who reduced their CASK by 1.9% in the first quarter. In terms of the rating agency, yes, you saw the increase of our S&P going from stable to positive. We have now a net debt to EBITDA of 1.6. We will continue, as we indicated early, short-term to strengthen our balance sheet. We think there are opportunities to consolidate the market, we want to have some dry powder for that. Long-term, of course, if there are no opportunities, we will have to look again at what are our abilities to return some of that liquidity to our shareholders.

Jarrod Castle
Analyst, UBS

Okay. Just coming back to Eurowings. Are you going to give us a number for the cost of integration and ramp up at any stage during the year so we can see how the underlying business would be performing otherwise?

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

Yeah. It is clear that the CASK reduction within Eurowings without these one-off costs would have been negative. Today, it is up around 8%, 9%, so that is basically difference is the one-off cost.

Jarrod Castle
Analyst, UBS

Okay. Thanks very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Anand Date with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Anand Date
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah. Hi, morning, everyone. I just had two questions, please. I was wondering, if we look at the load factor performance over Q1 and what all the airlines are saying about bookings into Q2, is it reasonable to draw a conclusion that you guys are volume loading as opposed to taking better price? Is that something that's a function of potential scrutiny around the Air Berlin deal, or is that a new strategy that you guys have in the revenue management system? Secondly, just to come back to on Alitalia. We've been getting lots of press recently that your proposal is now top of the queue or front of the queue, so to speak. Could you just give us an outline, perhaps, of what your red lines might be around how that deal would look?

What sorts of guarantees you might need for that to really work. Thank you.

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

Starting with the sunny country of Italy. As we have said many times, Italy is a very important market for us. It's the second most important after U.S. However, it's important to remember that the way Alitalia looks today is of absolutely no interest to us at all. We have handed in a concept to the Italians, how a totally restructured airline could possibly look like in terms of size, costs, destinations, and so on. That restructuring would have to be done by the Italians. That is something which we could not do as a new shareholder. There are many red lines, which basically means it has to be restructured first. Therefore, for the moment, this is just at a concept stage, and I think that is important to remember.

When we look at seat load factors and lead, clearly, the target of our revenue management system is to maximize the RASK, the total revenue. There is no specific volume strategy. There is nothing which changed from what we have been doing earlier, so there's nothing to be read into that.

Anand Date
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

A follow-up on both. If you don't see that something is happening on Alitalia that sort of fits with the model that you've proposed, would it be reasonable that you would just look to scale up Air Dolomiti or one of the other brands, and you can basically just cover northern Italy with your existing operations?

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

Clearly, scaling up Air Dolomiti and scaling up all different airlines opportunities to make more commercial platform in Italy is an important ingredient. It is a very important market for us, absolutely, we would scale up.

Anand Date
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Just one more. This should be very quick, I'm sure. Do you have any comment on whether your low-cost long-haul ambitions now have to change, and whether you need to do anything a bit differently given what IAG has done with Norwegian?

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

No, not at all. Quick question, quick answer.

Anand Date
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Thanks.

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

That's imminent.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Roeska with Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Daniel Roeska
Analyst, Bernstein

Hey, guys. Good morning. Three, if I may. Number one on the sector. You've pulled back growth a little bit in the forecast due to operational reasons, but maybe looking out on the performance, on what the sector is doing second half of 2018 into 2019, how are you thinking about capacity growth? Is there any indication that you're thinking a little bit more cautiously on what you want to do with capacity? Second question on Eurowings. I know the original plan always was to kind of consolidate within Eurowings and be more efficient running the different operators. Now you've decided also to keep SN Brussels as a full-fledged operator in the Eurowings business unit. Is that in any way impacting what the Eurowings Aviation GmbH can do in terms of synergies? Is it complicating and delaying the process?

Last question that maybe something you kind of touched on before. In the tougher environment, earnings growth gets harder. You talked about how you think about the cash balance, and you need a little bit of dry powder or maybe give it back. Any other ideas how you can translate that cash balance that's building up into earnings growth aside from consolidation in the market? Thanks.

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

Yeah, I know. Clearly, taking down the growth prospect from 7% to 6%, as you rightly said, it's all due to operational questions. Actually, there were five, six different reasons I mentioned in my speech. There is nothing there changing when it comes to how we think about capacity growth. When it comes to Eurowings being our platform for consolidation, absolutely, that is the strategy going forward. Of course, acquisition opportunities never really come when they are most ideal. From a practical point of view, the Air Berlin once in a lifetime opportunity came a little bit too early for us. Therefore, we are now spending a lot of energy on digesting and integrating that. From that perspective, Brussels Airlines is indeed coming a little bit later than we probably first had envisioned when we did that acquisition.

In terms of looking at our cash balances, we still have a net debt of EUR 2 billion. If at some stage there are no further good acquisition or CapEx opportunities, we would indeed look at how could a return of those balances look to the shareholders. That is all too early at this stage.

Daniel Roeska
Analyst, Bernstein

Yeah, maybe if I can follow up on that one. I think we've talked a lot about the M&A opportunity on airlines in the European space, and I was just wondering, if you look at Cargo, Technik or LSG, if there is any significant opportunity to increase in CapEx into those areas where you may be kind of holding back right now because you're still waiting to see how the consolidation game in Europe plays out.

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

I think there might be some exciting opportunities within Technik, which is a good platform and a well-run company. That is too early to speak about what would those opportunities be. It could also be the case that there are a number of smaller ones which in that could add up to some amounts.

Daniel Roeska
Analyst, Bernstein

Okay, thanks.

Operator

As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star followed by one. The next question comes from the line of Andrew Lobbenberg with HSBC. Please go ahead.

Andrew Lobbenberg
Analyst, HSBC

Hi there. Can I ask a couple of questions on Swiss? First up, what do we think about the weakening Swiss franc? What does that do for the business? Frankly, I was surprised how awesomely it traded with the strong Swiss franc. What do we think about the weakening Swiss franc? Staying with Swiss, it was clearly an awesome Q1 performance. When we get to Q1 next year and Swiss's profitability goes down, are there any exceptional one-off positives that you'll be tempted to draw out at that time? Is there anything exceptional that drove this performance? A third question. Have you guys got any further with your homework on the IFRS 16 burden, which is to come?

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

Thanks for those questions on Swiss. As you know, I have an emotional relationship with Swiss, I'm very happy to answer about the fantastic result they have. Clearly the Swiss franc is helping us because we have a lot of costs in Swiss franc. When the Swiss franc is weakening, that is indeed a benefit for them. I think one should see it also in the opposite direction. It's amazing how well they have been performing over the last couple of years, despite of the very strong Swiss franc, maybe now it's coming down to a Swiss franc, which is a little bit more reasonable to the euro. There are no significant Q1 one-offs. Indeed, this is really trading as good as it is. You had a homework question as well when it comes to the IFRS 16.

We will come back to the IFRS 16 in connection with our Q2 numbers. It's a bit too early to say what it is. It's thousands of different contracts around in the world. We all know, it's not aircraft we are leasing, but a lot of actual premises, buildings in many different places of the world. That's too early to speak about.

Andrew Lobbenberg
Analyst, HSBC

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of James Hollins with Exane. Please go ahead.

James Hollins
Analyst, Exane

Hi, good morning. A few from me. On the point to point long haul, looks like there's been a pretty massive shift from Asia-Pacific capacity onto Americas, which I assume might be North America versus where we were six weeks ago in your presentation. Could you just check if that's correct? Is it due to Asia-Pacific weakness or just transatlantic strength? Second one, still looking at CapEx of EUR 3.4 billion this year. That is the question, not the statement. Also, does that change because of the Airbus delays or is it obviously planned in, and do you get compensation from Airbus for that? Finally, are you one of the interested parties that has looked closely, we believe, at Norwegian? Thank you.

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

Starting on the CapEx side, the EUR 3.4 billion CapEx guidance did indeed include the A320neo, which might be delayed. We do get compensation when those aircraft are not arriving in time. That is helpful, even, of course, we would have preferred to get the aircraft in time. On Norwegian, we never comment on any M&A transactions. Starting with your first question, long haul. There is a certain shift to America, but of course it is from a small base. It is not really anything really relevant.

James Hollins
Analyst, Exane

Okay, thanks.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Johannes Bann with MainFirst. Please go ahead.

Johannes Braun
Analyst, MainFirst

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have three. Firstly, on the cost impact from the recent agreement with the Austrian Union on Eurowings, is that significant at all? Can you give any indication on that? Secondly, again, back to extra unit costs. Looking at the development, excluding the Air Berlin integration costs, I guess the main building blocks this year are the pilot agreement and also the management restructuring. I was just wondering if you can give us a sense of how much that has already affected Q1 and what the phasing will be over the year. Will there be more impact from these two building blocks in the quarters to come?

Very lastly, when you talk to your corporate clients these days, is there anything that would indicate that they will get more restrictive on travel budgets going forward, like down trading from business class to premium economy or less travel in general? Anything you can say on that? Thanks.

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

Yeah. Starting with the unit cost. No, there's a steady cost improvement, as you saw in the network airlines, we had 1.9% reduction in the first quarter. This is basically coming from all the P&L items we had spoken about earlier. There's no specific phasing of those unit cost. We speak to our corporate customers. No, there is indeed no change. We see very strong demand, both when speaking to them, so to say, offline and looking into the booking numbers. I think that is indeed continuing and a very strong, so to say, premium part of our cabin. There is indeed no change in Austria when it comes to the agreement on the wages, which will have any impact at all on our guidance.

Johannes Braun
Analyst, MainFirst

The agreement in Austria was in line with your expectation, that's what you're saying?

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

Indeed, yes.

Johannes Braun
Analyst, MainFirst

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Next question comes from line of Ruxandra Haradau-Doser with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Ruxandra Haradau-Doser
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Good morning. Three questions, please. First, I'm a little surprised that yields in Europe were down 2.8% ex-currency in Q1. With strong year-over-year capacity growth of low-cost carriers during the summer flight schedule in Frankfurt, Zurich, and Vienna, how shall we think about yields in Europe in Q2 and Q3? Second, a follow-up to an earlier question. RASK in Q1 was strongly supported by the load factor development, particularly in March. How shall we think about the load factors during the remaining of the year? I reiterate the question I had in the last conference call, adjusting for the fuel cost, because the fuel guidance already accounts for currency changes. What currency impact do you expect this year? Thank you.

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

Okay. Starting with the currency. The currency impact is actually pretty much a wash. Clearly, it does have an impact on our yields, but we also have large savings, predominantly, of course, when it comes to the US dollar saving on the fuel. Overall, for your modeling, I think this has not a significant impact. Looking at seat load factors going forward. Of course, in the months of April, you will see that we have an Easter effect, which means that we have the less loads in the month of April, but a higher yield when you come into the month of May due to all the weekend holidays being moved. Of course, you see the effect that there are higher seat load factors, but lower yields. Overall, this is really much depending on which quarter you look at.

Overall, for the full year, as we have said earlier, we think that our RASK is going to be stable, and that's something we are indeed

Andreas Hagenbring
Head of Investor Relations, Deutsche Lufthansa

Looking at going forward. I think I actually covered both your answers by that one.

Ruxandra Haradau-Doser
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yields in Europe?

Andreas Hagenbring
Head of Investor Relations, Deutsche Lufthansa

You were asking about yields in Europe. I think that has been covered by Ulrik with his answer as well.

Ruxandra Haradau-Doser
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. From your answer, is it fair to assume that the positives you have from currencies on fuel costs are fully offset by the negatives you have excluding the fuel cost?

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

As I mentioned, the currency is indeed a wash for Lufthansa as a total because the currency impact on the yield is being compensated by the cost savings we have, specifically maintenance and fuel.

Ruxandra Haradau-Doser
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Thank you.

Andreas Hagenbring
Head of Investor Relations, Deutsche Lufthansa

Very good. Thanks.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Damian Brewer with RBC. Please go ahead.

Damian Brewer
Analyst, RBC

Good morning, two clarifications from previous questions. James at Exane asked about the CapEx guidance, but you didn't give us a new outlook. Could you provide that, please? Secondly, Eurowings. Seems that there's about a 10% CASK differential, so it looks like there was about an EUR 80 million sort of one-off cost in Q1. Again, I think Jarrod asked, but could you clarify what you expect that to be in Q2? A third question. The full-year yield outlook or rather RASK outlook is stable, which rather implies that H2 would see a decline. The logistics business outlook is for a decline in EBIT despite a 50% incremental margin in Q1 and a still relatively buoyant, if normalized, market. Clearly something is going to go wrong in the second half of the year. What's stopping Lufthansa being capable of compounding earnings growth?

Is there still inherent problems within the group or is the company just not capable of compound EBIT growth? Thank you.

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

Starting on the CapEx. Well, indeed, our guidance is EUR 3.4 billion in CapEx for 2018. There's not a change in that. When it comes to your question on Eurowings and the delta of the CASK, your EUR 80 million number you mentioned there is not a bad assumption. When it comes to our guidance and our T2 EBIT being slightly below last year for the full year, it is just a function that indeed we are getting much tougher comparables in the second half of the year. Nothing else.

Damian Brewer
Analyst, RBC

Just to be clear, economies do compound in their growth. You're saying that Lufthansa's earnings can't compound.

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

I'm not sure I even understand your question there. Clearly, our revenues are increasing. As we said earlier, we had a very good second half of the year. There are fuel cost against us, and some of that we can compensate by better operation performance. At this stage, we think it's prudent to say that it's going to be slightly below last year when you look at the full-year guidance.

Damian Brewer
Analyst, RBC

Yes. Thank you.

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

Thank you very much.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Malte Schulz with Commerzbank. Please go ahead.

Malte Schulz
Analyst, Commerzbank

Yes, good morning. Two questions are left from my side. The first one is, if you look at your lower organic growth guidance now, will it affect also on the network airlines then evenly, or do you plan to shift some of the more capacity growth rather to Swiss Lufthansa core as you have better margins there? The second one is, are you currently also already looking at alternatives to the A320neo if the problems are more severe than previously expected?

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

When it comes to the network airlines, our capacity will short-term not change. We are of course short-term shifting capacity between the different hubs, for example, between Munich and Frankfurt, looking at the airport where we have the best quality and the best pricing or the best cost. Otherwise, there are no larger changes going on there. Your second question regarding alternatives to the A320neo, that's a problem for the whole industry. That is something which I think our suppliers are working very hard to be resolved. In the meantime, we have to scramble with getting in capacity from other sides short-term and get these compensation costs, which I spoke about earlier. This is an industry problem which will not change overnight.

Malte Schulz
Analyst, Commerzbank

One follow-up, if you allow. Will the compensation more than, or at least offset the higher cost you have from wet leases also and if there are other methods to get capacity?

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

I think that's more a question between us and Airbus.

Malte Schulz
Analyst, Commerzbank

Thank you.

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

Thank you very much.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Niamh McMahon with Goodbody. Please go ahead.

Niamh McMahon
Analyst, Goodbody

Hi. Morning. Just two questions from me. The first comes back to a question that was asked earlier on yields in Europe. Yields come in down 2.8% in the quarter. Can we get a bit more color on the reasons for this result, given you had the benefit of half an Easter in the quarter? I'm specifically interested to hear how domestic German yields are performing. Secondly, on North America, you'd quite a turnaround in your yield performance of 4% this quarter. I'm just wondering, what were the main drivers of this?

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

Yeah. Starting with the yields in Euroland and Germany, what we see, of course, is a very large growth of Eurowings. Eurowings indeed have lower yields than Lufthansa Passage and the rest of the airlines. Just due to their very strong growth, disproportionally, there is a mix shift when it comes to the yield. In terms of North America, we have strong trading in North America. There is underlying good demand and a good load factor. Of course, as you rightly say, there is a Forex headwind out of U.S. There is indeed also a very good demand out of U.S. Overall, we are very happy with the North American development.

Niamh McMahon
Analyst, Goodbody

Thank you. Just one follow-up question, if I may. In terms of the mix effect associated with Eurowings, what % of that is included in the minus 2.8%? What's underlying weakness?

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

That number, I have to come back to you on that. I don't have that in my head.

Niamh McMahon
Analyst, Goodbody

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

We have a follow-up question from Anand Date with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Anand Date
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah. Hi. It's a pretty quick one. I was just wondering if you could let us know, firstly, have you seen any benefit from the strikes at Air France or in France generally? Or is that really quite marginal? Secondly, did Q1 see any particularly material impact from bad weather in Northern Europe, or is that also relatively small? Thank you.

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

No, there are no real large benefits from the strikes at Air France. Being a Swede used to bad weather, I think it's been as bad as it's always been. No, there's no real change there.

Anand Date
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay, thanks.

Andreas Hagenbring
Head of Investor Relations, Deutsche Lufthansa

That was the last question we had. Maybe, Ulrik, some closing words?

Ulrik Svensson
CFO, Deutsche Lufthansa

Yeah. Thanks, Andreas, and thanks to all of you for joining our call today. As I said before, we are indeed satisfied on how the quarter went. The unit cost reductions at the network airlines were very visible and will continue in the coming quarters. Eurowings will, of course, see further significant one-off costs in the coming months, but this will not negatively impact our overall cost reduction targets of the 1%-2%. Trading was good. We're expecting this to continue for some more time. The comparables are, of course, becoming tougher later in the year. Nevertheless, we feel we are on track for what we have planned for this year. I'm happy to discuss this with many of you in the coming months. Thanks for today. Bye-bye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded. You may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining. Have a pleasant day. Goodbye.