Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thanks for joining the Lufthansa Group third quarter 2022 results conference call. Throughout today's recorded presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, you can do so by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Please press star followed by zero for operator assistance. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dennis Weber. Please go ahead, sir.
Yeah, thank you, Emma, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the presentation of our results for the nine months of 2022. With me on the call today are our CEO, Carsten Spohr, and our CFO, Remco Steenbergen. The two will give you an update on operational and financial performance and our outlook for the rest of the year and beyond. Afterwards, you will have the opportunity to ask your questions. Carsten, over to you.
Thank you, Dennis, and ladies and gentlemen. Warm welcome from Frankfurt from my side as well. I dare to say that today's meeting is the ideal conclusion to another quite eventful month for the Lufthansa Group. As you probably all know, it was just a few weeks ago, in the middle of the month, we presented the details of our product and quality initiative. We included into this the introduction of our new seats, which will be on all wide bodies and in all travel classes, be replaced on our long-haul routes. We celebrated the newest addition to our fleet, the Boeing 787. Last but not least, and that for sure you all know, we raised our full-year forecast only last week, and I'll expect an Adjusted EBIT of over EUR 1 billion for 2022.
I'm happy to say that I think we did indeed impressively demonstrate this month that the Lufthansa Group has left the crisis mode behind. After the operational challenges of the past few months, now more than 99% of our flights are operating regularly again, and over 70% are on time. We have nearly 80% of our passengers of 2019 back on board, and we already have 650 aircraft back in the air. This figure will go to above 700 by the summer of 2023. In economic terms, we have had an extremely strong summer behind us. The Lufthansa Group achieved an Adjusted EBIT of EUR 1.1 billion for the third quarter period. Our operating margin is double digit again and amounted to 11.2%. Group revenues totaled EUR 10.1 billion, almost double the prior year period.
Between July and September, we welcome more than 33 million passengers aboard our group airlines, and our yields were 23% above their 2019 pre-crisis levels and thus reached a new all-time record high. All our business segments, the passenger airlines, Lufthansa Technik, and cargo including, contributed to this very positive quarterly results. Lufthansa Technik benefited from the high demand for maintenance and repair services from airlines all over the world. With Adjusted EBIT of EUR 177 million, Lufthansa Technik achieves the best quarterly result in its history. For the full year, the colleagues are also confident of exceeding the current all-time record result of EUR 463 million dated back from 2019. Let's talk about Lufthansa Cargo, who as well expects to post another record result for 2022.
The first nine months of this year, our cargo colleagues have generated an operating profit of an impressive EUR 1.3 billion and therefore expect their full year result to exceed last year's figure of EUR 1.5 billion. Overall, doesn't take much to hear that from my voice here, we remain optimistic for the rest of this year. The demand for air travel is still strong, our yields remain high, and booked load factors for the fourth quarter are already higher today than they were at the same time in 2019. In view of these positive developments, we have doubled our forecast for profits in 2022, as you know. We now expect to report an adjusted EBIT for the year of over EUR 1 billion and, as important, an adjusted free cash flow of more than EUR 2 billion.
Another piece of good news: following the early repayment in Germany and Switzerland, we will now also pay back the remaining government stabilization measures in Austria and Belgium by the end of the year. This means that by the end of 2022, we'll have paid back all stabilization packages way ahead of schedule. Ladies and gentlemen, we consider the coronavirus pandemic over in economic terms, and our focus is now again on shaping our future. To this end, we have set ourselves three priorities, the three Ps, as I like to call them, with discussions with our staff, further upgrading our product offering for our guests, offering our people new prospects, and returning to profitability and growing in the coming years.
These three Ps will be our benchmark for the coming months. Before I go into more detail on each of them, Remco will give you a deep dive on our third quarter figures. Remco, over to you. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Carsten, and a warm welcome to all of you as well. As Carsten said, our Q3 results indeed do not show any signs of crisis anymore. In the third quarter, Adjusted EBIT amounted to more than EUR 1.1 billion. Net income exceeded EUR 800 million. All business units contributed to the positive results, testifying to the strength of our portfolio. Importantly, we also generated a positive free cash flow of EUR 410 million, despite a EUR 1.1 billion cash outflow related to the seasonality of customer bookings. As a result, we continued to deleverage, and we also strengthened equity. Let me present you the results of the different parts of our business in more detail.
The passenger airlines offered 78% of pre-crisis capacity in the third quarter, with short-haul being back to almost 90% and long-haul to 70% of 2019 levels. Total capacity offered was lower compared to original plans because of flight cancellations in response to significant system-wide operational disruption in June and July, which eased significantly in the further course of the quarter. However, the additional buffers we created to stabilize operation and EUR 239 million of irregularity costs, that means customer compensation payments and cost of care expenses, were a drag on unit costs, which were 9.5% higher than in 2019, excluding currency effects. Some of the irregularity costs also related to strikes to Lufthansa ground and cockpit personnel, which had an overall profit impact of around EUR 70 million when also considering the lost revenues.
In addition, maintenance expenses increased due to the reactivation of additional parts of our fleet. Higher costs, however, were more than offset by better revenues. The huge demand, especially from leisure travelers, limited capacity and passing on of higher fuel costs resulted in higher yields and load factors. As a result, yields were 22.5% above pre-crisis levels, and loads were almost as high as in 2019. Once more, the transatlantic stood out with strong US-based premium selection demand being a key driver. By airline, Swiss and Austrian Airlines outperformed with operating margins of 15% and 16% respectively, with Austrian even generating a record operating profit of EUR 110 million in the third quarter. In total, Adjusted EBIT in the passenger airline business amounted to EUR 709 million.
Turning to our aviation services, profits in our logistics business exceeded the prior year record level, amounting to EUR 331 million. Despite the easing of disruptions in ocean shipping, which has been a big driver of demand in prior quarters, yields continued to be up by more than 20% on the prior year. Compared to pre-crisis levels, they were more than twice as high in the third quarter. Ongoing supply constraints, especially on the Euro-Asia trade lane, contributed to this. In addition, companies are focusing on making sure they have enough inventory in light of the still manifold risks to supply chains. Lufthansa Technik continued to take advantage of the global recovery in air travel and the resulting strong demand for MRO services, which allowed passing through cost inflation in materials and labor to customers.
The stronger U.S . Dollar also supported earnings, which reached EUR 177 million, the highest adjusted EBIT the business ever achieved in the third quarter. The catering business around LSG benefited from a large footprint in Americas, where businesses picked up far more significantly than in Asia. Only the grants under the CARES Act included in the prior year base meant that adjusted EBIT was down year-on-year, amounting to EUR 6 million. Finally, the result of the other businesses and group functions was minus EUR 69 million, below the prior year level because of the end of short-term work benefits, which were still included in last year results. Once more, cash conversion was strong in the quarter, especially when considering negative seasonal effects. Customer prepayments related to new bookings were EUR 1.1 billion lower than the end of June, in line with pre-crisis patterns.
However, this was more than offset by the high profit and further improved working capital management, where our focus on managing payment terms and on enforcing on time collection of receivables continued to pay off. In sum, Adjusted Free Cash Flow amounted to EUR 410 million in the third quarter and EUR 3.3 billion in the first nine months, the best ever performance in the group's history, even exceeding the record levels of 2017. As a result, net debt declined to EUR 6.2 billion, EUR 2.8 billion below the level at year-end 2021. Let me remind you that our net debt is fixed rate finance at less than 3% per year with an average maturity of approximately five years.
In addition, maturing liabilities amount to just EUR 2 billion in the next 15 months, even including the remaining EUR 500 million of government-backed loans in Austria and Belgium, which we intend to pay back by the end of this year. Considering current liquidity of EUR 11.8 billion and our expectations for cash generations also going forward, our refinancing needs are hence very limited. The net pension obligation decreased by EUR 4.5 billion to EUR 2.1 billion in the first nine months of the year because of the increase in the discount rate to now 3.8%.
As a result, financial leverage measured as net financial debt plus net pension obligations over adjusted EBITDA is down to 2.5 based on results in the past 12 months, demonstrating the progress made towards our goal of regaining an investment-grade rating by 2024. Shareholders' equity increased to EUR 9.2 billion, with net debt over equity now amounting to 90%. In this context, let me emphasize that our success in deleveraging and strengthening the balance sheet does not change our view on potential asset divestitures. The decision to divest AirPlus and the remaining catering business around LSG was made based on strategic considerations. The sales process continue as planned in both cases. The same is true for Lufthansa Technik, where we prepare for a partial divestiture or a partial IPO in 2023.
A healthy balance sheet is the basis for profitable growth, especially in economically challenging times. In addition, we continue to be laser-focused on cost management and the implementation of our EUR 3.5 billion cost reduction program. In the area of personnel costs, we had to reduce our savings ambitions by around EUR 400 million in light of high inflation. However, we target to make up for this in other areas of our cost base, especially sales-related costs and maintenance. The latter, where we identified additional synergies via our joint management of engines across the group.
Taking into account previously mentioned one-off effects in Q3 related to the ramp-up, strikes and operational disruption, as well as the ongoing implementation of structural cost savings, we are confident that we can narrow the ex fuel unit cost gap versus 2019 in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. As far as fuel costs are concerned, effective hedging will limit this year's cost to around EUR 7.6 billion, around EUR 1 billion less than we would have otherwise had to bear. For next year, we have hedged around 50% of our exposure in terms of crude oil at a break-even rate of $89 through options. 32% of our jet fuel exposure is hedged completely. That means including the jet crack.
Let me emphasize that there is a likelihood that the jet fuel cost will remain equally high in 2023 as in 2022, regardless of the current decline in the forward rates. We hence intend to at least maintain our current yield levels in 2023. Compared to fuel, the cost impact from exchange rate fluctuations is far smaller, especially when considering the natural hedge provided by our ex European operations. The revenues generated in U.S. dollar reduce our U.S. dollar operating exposure by around 60%. For 2023, we expect our net U.S. dollar exposure to amount to EUR 6.2 billion, which we have currently hedged at 37% at an average rate of 1.09, with the target to increase the hedge ratio to around 60%.
Regarding the U.S. dollar exchange rate hedging for our aircraft purchases, 50% of this exposure is hedged when the contract is signed. In the last 24 months before final payment, the hedging level is increased in half-yearly steps of 10%, reaching 90% in the end. Naturally, the average hedge rate moves far slower here due to the long order cycles. To be noted that we have currently hedged 70% of our US dollar currency exposure for around EUR 16 billion at an average rate of 1.23. Let me finish with our financial outlook for the rest of the year. In line with previously communicated expectations, we intend to operate around 80% of pre-crisis capacity in Q4. Hence, the average capacity operated by airlines in the full year will be close to 75% of 2019.
Assuming no currently unforeseen deterioration in the operating environment, such as revival of pandemic-related travel restriction and escalation of the Ukraine war or events of a similar magnitude, we are confident to generate an adjusted EBIT of more than EUR 1 billion for the full year 2022. This represents a significant upgrade of our previous outlook based on the positive developments in the third quarter. Record results in Cargo and Technik, as well as the current booking situation, which Carsten will elaborate on in a minute. Adjusted free cash flow is expected to reach more than EUR 2 billion, with the exact outcome dependent on booking levels at year-end. With these results, we're on track for the achievement of our 2024 targets, an adjusted EBIT margin of more than 8% and a capital return of more than 10%.
Pending our formal 2023 guidance, which we intend to publish in March next year, we expect further progress in 2023, meaning a further increase of profits compared to the current year level. Over to you, Carsten, with a more detailed explanation of what will be driving this.
Yeah, thank you, Remco, and ladies and gentlemen. As mentioned before, it's now in the next month about our product, our people, and our profitability. These three Ps will determine our actions, activities over the next months to come. The new Dreamliner, which we presented in the middle of the month, in a way embodies all three. It's a state-of-the-art aircraft with an improved business class and like any long-haul aircraft, it provides around 200 jobs on board, on the ground for Lufthansa Group alone. It's obviously particularly efficient, consuming an average of just 2.5 liters of kerosene per passenger per 100 kilometers. That obviously doesn't just lower fuel costs, but also contributes significantly to our profitability.
The Dreamliner is just one of almost 200 new aircraft that will have joined the Lufthansa fleet by 2030, and for which we are more or less investing EUR 2 billion a year. We have also launched the biggest product renewal in the history of our company. Starting next year, we will be renewing more than 30,000 seats on our long-haul aircraft. The first airline to introduce the new travel experience will be our core airline, Lufthansa Airlines.
Under the name Lufthansa Allegris, we want our product to set new industry standards with more booking options in economy class, with a comfortable new hard shell seat in premium economy, which our guests are already experiencing in Swiss, with seven different versions of the seat in business class and, of course, with the new Lufthansa first class, for which our guests for the first time will travel in advance suites. More comfort, more individuality, and more premium can hardly be offered in a commercial aircraft today. Lufthansa will continue to live up to its claim of being the leading Western premium airline. Our product innovations at the Lufthansa Group go far beyond new aircraft and seats. We're also enhancing our catering, our amenities, and our lounges.
We are hiring new employees in many areas to further improve our customer service and continue to ensure reliable flight operations. On top of this, we are investing substantially in developing digital solutions that will enhance the digital travel experience throughout the customer journey. The teams of our newly established Digital Hangar first focused on expanding rebooking options in our digital chatbot. On some days, the chatbot already rebooks more passengers than our call centers, and this will be, of course, expanded over the next years. In addition to digitalization, sustainability is a further key element in any premium product. The Lufthansa Group aims to be an industry leader regarding climate protection. In doing so, we put our prime emphasis on technological innovations in line with the reduction plan underlying our commitment to the Science Based Targets initiative.
We already made good progress and reduced our specific carbon emissions by 2% compared to 2019 as a base year. We constantly keep on innovating. Last week, for example, Swiss became the first airline in the world to use AeroSHARK technology on its passenger flights. The special AeroSHARK film has been developed by Lufthansa Technik in cooperation with BASF here in Germany. It sustainably reduces an aircraft's aerodynamic drag and, as a result, its fuel consumption. Sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF for short, is another key component in our sustainability strategy. Thanks to SAF, carbon-neutral air travel is already possible today, but these fuels are not yet available in sufficient quantities. As things currently stand, even in 2030, volumes of SAF produced will still only meet roughly 3% of global fuel demand.
This is why the Lufthansa Group currently supports more than 10 SAF projects in Germany, Europe, and worldwide, and has already concluded long-term SAF uptake agreements. Swiss, for example, has teamed up with the Synhelion company, which produces SAF using the sun-to-liquid process in a plant in Jülich, Germany. Swiss will be the first airline in the world to fly with this so-called solar fuel. Let's move on to the second P, people. Recently, I have often talked about the fact that we need to have a new understanding of our social and collective bargaining partnerships with our unions so that they once again deserve to be called partnerships. I'm aware that this is not an easy task and will certainly take time, but we are making significant progress. Just since August, we have reached 10 agreements with nine unions in four countries.
This week alone, collective agreements were reached with the AEROPERS Pilot Association in Switzerland, as well as agreements for cockpit, cabin, and ground staff of Austrian Airlines, and a new collective agreement was concluded with the ver.di trade union for our pilots in Eurowings. We must succeed in negotiating further improved conditions for our employees without strikes in all areas of our group. This week, Swiss, Austrian Airlines, and Eurowings have shown that this is possible. We want to create prospects, not only for the employees, though, who already are working for us, but also for those who are joining us. Because business is coming back so strongly, we need additional hands on deck. We are hiring primarily in product-related and service-oriented functions, as well as in IT and in cockpit and cabins.
As a result, we forecast to have around 115,000 employees on board of the Lufthansa Group by the end of 2023. That is 7,000 more compared to today, but still more than 20,000 less compared to the end of 2019 before Corona and the appropriate crisis started. With that, let's move on to the third P, profitability. Without profitability, everything is nothing in any company, for sure in an airline which is trying to modernize. Having already returned to profitability in the past quarter, we now aim to further increase our earning power and generate sustainably high cash flows. The signs are good for this. After all, global aviation will not return to the overcapacities witnessed in previous pre-pandemic times anywhere soon, because capacity development will be limited by several factors.
First, like any other industry, our industry is affected by global supply chain bottlenecks. Missing semiconductors or various other components and products cause massive delays in the delivery of new aircraft, as well as repairs and overhauls. If you just listen to my colleagues from Boeing and Airbus over the last days, you get a lot of confirming information on this one. Just one example, it's currently basically impossible around the world to obtain a cockpit window for the seven eight seven, and by the way, also for other aircraft types because of supplier insolvencies, shortages of staff, materials, supply chains, and so on. Secondly, the industry-wide personnel shortages of the past summer have not yet been fully overcome across the entire value chain. The many still unfilled vacancies at airports, ground service providers, and security check organizations around the world continue to limit any significant capacity expansion.
If you take on top of that the fact that U.S. carriers are suffering from a dramatic pilot shortage that will take years to address, it's another proof that overcapacities are not to be seen. Last but not least, the high cost of fees, materials, and fuel raises the hurdle for additional capacity deployment to be profitable, preventing expansion as well. Against these limitations on the supply side, several factors continue to support demand, on the other hand. Business travel, for instance, continues to recover. For us to some 70% of pre-crisis levels in terms of revenues. We expect volumes to continue normalizing at the current rapid pace. This is because the present geopolitical uncertainties and the disruption of supply chains, which I partly mentioned earlier, are prompting a diversification of supply chains and target markets in almost all industries worldwide.
This creates additional travel needs to establish and maintain relationships with additional suppliers and sometimes additional customers. When it comes to VFR, visiting friends and relatives and leisure travel, one summer was surely not enough to release all the demand which has been built up during the pandemic. For many people, travel has obviously become more important in their personal hierarchy of needs, especially in the U.S. Our distribution partners report high levels of demand for travel to Europe, also in the next months and quarters. We also see further potential beyond our home markets. Asia hasn't been a factor in the recovery of our industry yet, but now, with the opening of Japan, traditionally a high yield market, that is changing.
Travel restrictions are also being lifted in Hong Kong, and there's a reason to be confident that this could, to a certain extent at least, also serve as a blueprint for mainland China next year. In sum, supply chain constraints in our industry, on the one hand, will limit the addition of capacity in global aviation, probably for years to come. At the same time, on the other hand, the post-pandemic recovery is far from over, structurally supporting demand in generally, economically more challenging times in the global economy. Based on them, the Lufthansa Group is well positioned to take advantage of these favorable supply-demand dynamics. Our global organization makes us very flexible to adjust our offer based on regional and segment-specific trends. Compared to 2019, we have significantly diversified our customer base.
Today, we sell 3 out of 4 tickets to customers outside of our home market, Germany. Revenues generated in the all-important U.S. market are up 15% compared to 2019 levels. This is all the more remarkable, given that the capacity offered on the transatlantic is still 20% below pre-crisis levels. Our booking outlook for the fourth quarter also confirms the sustained strengths of premium demand. Our seats offered in the final three months of the year are already better booked than at the same time in 2019, not only in economy and premium economy, but especially in first and business class. Our status customers continue to account for a large share of this, but premium leisure travel has also been driving demand since the start of the pandemic.
Given the current booking situation, it's evident already that our yields for the fourth quarter of 2022 will be above our yields in 2019 at a similar rate as we have seen this in the third quarter. This continues to be driven first and foremost by the transatlantic, where still strong consumer confidence, a relatively better economic outlook, and the strength of the local currency, the U.S. Dollar, support demand. Our customers remain very short-term in their booking behavior, though. We're also seeing signs of more long-term advanced bookings, especially for the holiday season in 2023. Ladies and gentlemen, coming to an end, the importance of the aviation industry and the demand for air travel continue unabated. People just want to travel, and they naturally prefer to do so with the best in the industry.
We are convinced that with our extensive product innovations, we will deliver on our promise again, and we will further strengthen our position among the world's top five airline groups. We are convinced that we have the best team in the industry, and we will continue to offer conditions which ensure that we attract the best people and retain them. We are convinced, last but not least, that driven by all parts of our portfolio, we will continue to deliver strong results and attractive returns across the portfolio. After its biggest crisis in its recent history, the Lufthansa Group is in an excellent position to have a successful future. In that regard, thanks for your attention, and now we look forward, Remco and I, and of course also Dennis, to your questions. Over to you.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question- and- answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on their telephone keypad. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star followed by two. Anyone who has a question may press star followed by one at this time. The first question is from the line of James Hollins with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Oh, yeah, Carsten, Remco, Dennis, good morning. Three, please. Just on your capacity, previously you talked about 85%-90% in 2023. I may have missed it, but is that still the guidance? May you just run us through, you talked about aircraft deliveries, staffing, obviously we need to think about macro and fuel. Just wondering if A, that was still the number and which sort of end of that you might be thinking currently given those factors. Secondly, I was just wondering how United Airlines partnership with Emirates might be impacting your alliance on some of those routes, just sort of general thoughts on that. The final one on cargo yield, I think it looks like it's down about 10% quarter-on-quarter, still extremely strong, obviously.
I was wondering if you could maybe run us through your expectations on the trajectory into Q4 and beyond on those yields. Thank you.
James, it's Carsten. Yeah, thanks for your question. When it comes to capacity, we stick with our guidance of 85%-90%, but honestly, excluding the arguments you're referring to, rightly, the bottlenecks, I rather see it on the lower end of the 85%-90% range than the higher end. That is probably worth to say. United Airlines partnership, by far the strongest one we have, is hardly being impacted by their new friends in Dubai because their partnership with the Dubai carrier is limited to routes which we don't operate in our network portfolio. There is more political impact probably between the UAE and the U.S. of this than a commercial impact on Lufthansa.
With cargo yields, I will hand over to Remco, who has the latest details, 'cause I'm still so jealous about these yields looking back to my own time in cargo. I can hardly speak about it.
Yeah. Thank you, Carsten. The cargo yields indeed in Q3 are down versus Q2. What we currently see for Q4, that they're on a similar level as Q3, so that is all good news. For next year, we still expect yields to be above what we had pre-crisis level. Where they will land versus the Q4 is still too early to say. We have to see in the coming months where that will end. We are so far still very optimistic of a cargo for next year, albeit it's very likely to be at a lower level than this year.
Again, very clear. Carsten, you sounded very emotional there. Don't be. You're doing well. Carry on.
Sorry, James. Say it again. Oh, James, we missed that last comment. Can you say it again?
The next question is from the line of Alex Irving with Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, gentlemen. Congratulations on the successful quarter. Three from me, please, two on cost and one on the fleet. The first question's on labor cost. Can you please provide a bit more detail around the measures that we are no longer going to implement around your labor cost savings target? I think earlier on, this year, the expectation was that these would be achieved if either unions would agree to the measures or happen to pass laws. Is that right? What has changed, please? The second is basically the mirror image on non-labor costs. Can you please detail the source, the additional EUR 400 million targeted cost savings here, and why you're confident we can make these reductions without hindering the effectiveness of the business? The third question's on the fleet. Great to see the seven eight sevens being delivered.
Can you please remind us which planes these are going to replace in the fleet? On some of the older types that are still in service, the A380, for example. Are these now going to be around into next summer as well, or how are you thinking about that? Thanks.
Alex, Remco here. I will take the first two questions. As we signaled already at the prior conference when we announced our half-year results, correct? That it would be likely that we could not realize the additional labor cost savings of EUR 400 million. We have worked through the quarter and therefore we have now added it to the non-personnel costs. That was also something we indicated before, so I hope it's not something new for you. Overall, in the EUR 3.5 billion, we're very committed. Now, on the non-labor related elements, there's still a couple of elements as I also announced in my speech.
Particularly on the sales related items, further automation, the channels we are working through, this is a part where we believe we can even do more efficiencies than we did before. Secondly, on our MRO expenses, we also think we can further progress. Here, we have worked on the certain things to jointly handle across the group, like the engines, and particularly there are some savings coming out. There we are confident to move that further forward. I think the bigger element for us is, when you look at Q3 and you look at the 9.5%, that it's a bit influenced seasonally with one-offs like we said before. The MRO cost, which related to the very heavy ramp up of the fleet is a big one.
Also, you have to see that in Q3 we had a reinstatement of the variable pay, and you had the catch-up of the first half of this year in Q3. Of course, we had also quite some irregularity costs in Q3. There you have to consider when you look at Q3 going forward. We have said from the beginning, EUR three and a half billion is our cost savings. We will stick to that and we are confident we can make that.
Yeah, Alex, hello from Carsten. To the fleet questions. The 787 is intending to replace our 340-300s, because they're small as the same capacity and both aircraft operate without a first class. We have 32 on order total of the 787s coming in. So this will be now just the beginning. On your initial question, on the 380, we are currently looking at three 380s coming to Munich in May, excuse me, in June of next year. That's just the beginning. We'll need to bring that number up from the demand we see, and also for operational reasons, three is not enough, so we're currently working on the detailed plan for that. Expect three in Munich, and you should book now because our passengers love it if you wanna fly it.
Wonderful. Thank you both for the detail.
Next question is from the line of Ruxandra Haradau-Doser with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Good morning and congratulations on the performance. First a follow-up question on cargo. In the press release, you highlight a good yield performance to Asia in Q3. Could you please give some details on the regional performance you expect in the cargo division in Q4? Do you expect Asia to perform better than the other cargo markets until the end of the year? Second, you mentioned the outperformance of Austrian. It was the airline with the highest operating margin in the quarter. Historically, this was not the case, so what was driving this very strong performance, and is it sustainable? How did the Q3 regularity costs at Austrian compare with 2019 level? Third, in the MRO business, what was the currency adjusted revenue performance in Q3 relative to 2019?
What share of the costs in the division are euro-denominated? Thank you very much.
Ruxandra, the real secret about Austrian is we have put a lady on top, but I know that's not detailed enough for you, so Remco will give you a more qualified answer.
Yeah, Carsten, you are right. Certainly, leadership is a very important one. We have a new leader in Austrian who's a very, very good leader, so that certainly helps. If you go a little bit back in Austrian, correct, the crisis has also changed some things, right? Austrian, from a cost perspective, is become very, very competitive. Secondly, the whole Austrian brand and service positioning is extremely good one and perceived very well in the Austrian market. Also there, therefore, our competitive position, particularly versus the low cost, is the airline is very much appreciated. If you look through the year, and also there we have been able to really increase the yields in line with the cost increases we saw along, and that combined with the cost savings, put Austrian in a very, very good position.
We also believe that will further improve in 2023. We clearly believe it's sustainable and we're extremely proud, I have to say, on Austrian, that they managed this, and I really say that with a smile on my face. If you think about your first question, correct, on the cargo. On Asia, you still have to mention that relatively there are less flights going to Asia. So of course the belly capacity is limited and therefore the rates overall are holding up very well. For Europe versus Americas, it's lower, but still above the pre-crisis levels. I think those are the most important, say, regional performance elements.
The currency-adjusted profitability in terms of the EBIT for Lufthansa Technik. There's about a little bit more than $100 million impact coming for the full year in the results. I have to check what the expectation is for Q3, but it should be about a quarter of that or slightly more than a quarter of that.
Great. Thank you very much.
Next question is from the line of Stephen Furlong with Davy. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Question for Carsten on the transatlantic, and it's an important market obviously. I mean, in terms of the general comments about the supply constraints, do you see next year the transatlantic still being supply constrained? I know that it's partly United Airlines' adding a lot of capacity. On the other hand, if Japan, even China opens up, maybe some fairly scarce metal can move to the other markets. Just might talk about the transatlantic market. Secondly for Remco, just on Lufthansa Technik, in the criteria you look at in 2023 to maybe spin it in terms of partial IPO or private equity or whatever alternative, I presume you will take into account market conditions.
Obviously at the moment valuations in general in the market are quite low. Just my comment on those two things. Thank you.
Stephen, good morning, it's Carsten. Yeah, on the transatlantic, obviously, not just Lufthansa knows that there's money to be made. We all do know that all competitors are looking at this as well. You partly answered your question yourself. Some capacity next year will be needed for Asia. I cannot tell you how much it is because nobody knows how mainland China will act next year. Sure, if it opens, we're all gonna be moving some capacity into there, and we're already doing that now with, you know, Hong Kong and Japan to a certain degree. That's one element why I think we will see also good discipline on the North Atlantic just by being forced to be disciplined due to demands in other markets.
The second, let's call it again, force to be disciplined, is that there is probably planes and flights in the schedule which the industry will not be able to operate. Lack of pilots, lack of airplanes, sorry, being delivered late. Listen to what Boeing and Airbus have been saying over the last days. I think even if we wanted to bring more capacity, when I say we, I talk about the industry, not just Lufthansa Group. If we in the industry want to bring more capacity to the North Atlantic, we probably will not have it. Summing up, because we need it somewhere else or it's just not there in the first place. I see a good profitable summer on the North Atlantic also for next year.
Stephen, yeah, on your second question, of course, for Lufthansa Technik, we will deal with that in a very smart way. If we currently look at the interest for taking a partial sale into account, then there is a lot of interest. Of course, for a partial sale, also the way this is going to be financed for such an entity is also less debt dependent as we expected. We have to see what will come in when we start into the process. Again, we have to keep in mind it's for strategic considerations that overall Lufthansa Technik from a strategic perspective and valuation over the mid and the long term is in a better place, and we can do it by ourselves.
That have, of course, a lot to do with capabilities which were brought in such a transaction. Of course, the valuation for a partial sale is very important to us. We think with the amount of parties which are currently interesting, the impact of the current market search events should be limited. Again, we have to see when we are there. If it becomes something which is stupid, then of course we will wait.
Okay. Thanks, Remco. Thanks, Carsten, and well done again.
Next question is from the line of Sathish Sivakumar with Citi. Please go ahead.
Thanks again, Carsten, Remco, and Dennis. I've got three questions. First on the CASK ex-fuel into Q4. In your slide on page 11, you say that it'll be smaller in Q4 than in Q3. What is actually the driver? Is it just because you're discounting the ramp-up and strikes and disruption cost out, so you expect it to be somewhere similar to, say, Q2 levels, around 6% up? Any color on that, what is going to be driver that is going to slightly be less than Q4 would be helpful. What's your booking visibility into Q1 2023 looks as we speak today versus, say, Q1 of this year? The third one on MRO.
Any color on what are the trends you are seeing as you go into Q4 on pricing would be helpful? Yeah. Thank you.
I take 1 and 3, Remco Steenbergen here. On number 1, yes, you're right. Correct. The Q3 was impacted by one of the major one-offs related to MRO, variable pay catch-up, all the incidents we had in the operation. Therefore, we expect Q4 to be lower. It's also, of course, that we further make progress on our cost savings, which will come into our P&L. That's coming in as well. Therefore, we expect it lower than the 9.5% it currently is. I hope it comes close to what you say, what we had in Q2, more to that level.
We're also to see what will now happen in the last coming months, but that is certainly something we are targeting for. With regard to your question, three, right? On the pricing, as I said before, the pricing in terms of people and material is going up because these inflation elements are passed on, and we see no change in that situation in Q4 versus Q3. With the second question, I give it back to Carsten.
Yeah. Sathish, on Q1, it's important to understand what I said in my little introduction. We see more and more short-term booking. It's not just the math you can do between other Q1s to look at the current Q1s and the booking levels. Of course, short-term bookings tend to be good for the industry because at least in our business model, yields are higher. We don't see any end of the high yields looking all the way through Q4 and to take them into Q1. Why would it suddenly end? There is some optimism there, not that much based on data, but based on the course we see, and we have seen for Q4 or the other quarters. That creates some optimism, as I said, going into the next year.
I think we shouldn't understand or shouldn't forget that the recession elements are much stronger, potentially in Germany and maybe to a certain degree in Europe than we see in other parts of the world. I think it's important for us Europeans not just to take the headlines of the paper and put that into revenue management. In a sense, our data rather confirms strong forecasting rather than weak.
Okay. Yeah. Thanks, Remco Steenbergen. Thanks, Carsten. Yeah.
Next question is from the line of Jaime Rowbotham with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Morning, gents. Three from me. First, also on capacity, you're being cautious, which at the moment is allowing you to maintain these healthy price premiums versus pre-crisis. Clearly, the hope is that that can continue next year, even in a potentially weaker macro environment. Could you just expand a bit more on any extent to which you're worried about the behavior of other airlines impacting that? Perhaps you could split the answer into thoughts on short-haul and then long-haul. Second one is related and specific to long-haul. When I look at Transatlantic capacity from Germany in Q4, I hope the data is accurate. I see your ASK is almost 30% below pre-crisis, but I see your Star Alliance partner, United, is putting capacity 20% above with the result that the market's at about 90% of pre-crisis levels.
As we head into next year, you know, if demand starts to soften, I mean, can you envisage a scenario where you're urging United to pull back a bit in order to protect pricing in that important market? Finally, third one, much quicker. Could you just expand on the irregularities in air traffic figure, the EUR 239 million? Does that include anything for Russian, Ukraine-related impacts at all? And if not, is it possible to quantify how much the war has weighed on the performance in Q3 so that we can consider any potential upside should the situation there improve? Thanks, guys.
Yeah, James, on capacity, I think I've said it before. There is, let's call them operational restrictions. Airplanes around the world, pilot shortage in the U.S., ground staff shortage, especially in Europe, those things will not go away by next year. That's why I do believe not that much in that the industry has learned to be disciplined on capacity, which especially our shareholders or the shareholders of the industry have been waiting for decades. I don't know how steep that learning curve is. It's just that we are now forced to be disciplined on capacity because we cannot put into the air.
In North Atlantic, it's true that United has put a lot more in there than we do, partly because we have also seen very good yields on the South Atlantic, in Africa, on the Asian markets, which are open to us. We are not only focusing that much on the North Atlantic, maybe that's a little different in United. Of course, as you know, we have a joint venture, and we are legally able to talk about capacity measures, and we're doing that while we speak. Yes, we will continue to have that discussion with United. As you probably know, United also this year published quite a bit more than they were able to fly in the end. Maybe there's a certain element of that in them as well.
On the IROPS cost numbers, maybe we'll have a few more, but indeed, and I cannot disclose too much here on this, but yes, there are military elements of airspace structures in Europe, partly some military closures, which cannot be forecasted for security reasons. That is a complexity for air traffic control. While we expect that lift of military equipment towards Ukraine or towards Poland to go on, we expect that to have an impact also on air traffic control next year. We are informed by the air traffic control, by the ANSPs around Europe that, of course, there's also a learning curve there, how to deal with that fact, together with the military, Air Force, you know, experts. I don't expect that to go up, rather to go down that effect.
Numbers, Remco Steenbergen, to be added maybe from you, but I don't think we have any decent number on that question.
The IROPS cost is really all the operational elements. With regard to Ukraine and Russia, perhaps you have to split it. If you think about sales from the airline perspective, of course, we lost those sales, right? But that is a very limited percentage, right? That's in the overall perspective, not material. As we said in Q1, correct, on the MRO side, we had a significant business in Russia. I have to think EUR 200 million of turnover and that we're losing, correct? Since that war started, actually there we see the largest impact and unfortunately because of that, we had also quite a large write-off in Q1 of this year. That I think would be the bigger impact directly related to this.
Of course, we have an enormous impact on oil prices, we all know, and that would be materially the biggest impact, but that's probably not where you're referring to.
Got it. Thank you, guys.
Next question is from the line of Muneeba Kayani with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. Firstly on cash flows. So strong cash flows in the nine months, in the third quarter. Your guidance is for over EUR 2 billion. So how are you thinking about cash flows in the fourth quarter? Do you think it will be negative? If you could just talk about what movements we should expect from a working capital, and CapEx perspective. Secondly, Klaus-Michael Kühne's stake is now 17.5% officially, and he's looking for a board seat. Can you just talk about what your conversations with him and his representatives have been, recently? Do you think he would be increasing his stake further? The third question on cost, just following up on some of the questions earlier on cost.
When you, in your 2024 EBIT margin guidance of over 8%, where do you see ex-fuel CASK compared with 2019? Thank you.
Yeah. Remco here. Let me start. The free cash flow for Q4, we have to understand that there's still a seasonal impact of the prepayments in Q4, which historically is in the range of EUR 700 million-EUR 800 million. That is an impact which we will certainly see in Q4. Of course, with the guidance we have given you see that we expect a positive EBIT in the quarter. We don't expect too much of the working capital, but the real element, the big element that plays a role is the decline of the prepayments, and therefore the EUR 3.3 billion will go down. Hence, that we are very confident that we can generate a free cash flow for the full year of above EUR 2 billion. Correct?
That means that Q4 is indeed negative. Carsten will for sure say a little bit more on Klaus-Michael Kühne's stake. Of course, I'm personally very happy with an anchor shareholder in the company, and an anchor shareholder who is really an entrepreneur and wants to grow a business and create value. I think that's very, very, very good for Lufthansa and having such an anchor shareholder, and we're very much looking forward to work with him and his team. With regard to the CASK ex-fuel, in February, March, when we come with our full year, we will give a little bit more details at this because we're working currently through our budget for next year, as well as the inflationary impact.
As you can understand, they work through the system and we have to see where that lands. Certainly, with regard to our original commitment of the cost reductions in where they are, if the inflationary aspect which impact the whole industry, that of course impacts that cost, but it shouldn't impact our competitive position vis-à-vis the cost savings we have. We look forward very much to come with a very good and attractive CASK going forward, underpinning the 8%, but we'll, more detailed information will come in February, March. Over to you, Carsten, if you want to say something more on, Klaus-Michael Kühne.
Yeah, sure. Remco, thanks. Obviously, we are in very close contact and exchange to all our shareholders. You all know Dennis. That's what he's paid for, and that's what he's doing so well, among other things. Of course, especially close to a shareholder with the magnitude of Klaus-Michael Kühne. As Remco said, to have that, you know, expression of faith into Lufthansa, into our future is great for this company, and I think has sent a very strong signal. If you own 17.5% of Lufthansa, I think a board seat would be a natural next steps. When it comes to disclosing details about that, or also of course, disclosing parts of the conversation, you will understand that that is private. In terms of the board seat, we'll disclose next steps whenever that is appropriate.
Thank you.
Next question is from the line of Sumit Mehrotra with Société Générale. Please go ahead.
Thank you. First, a very mechanical one. The fourth quarter yields, do I understand correctly, will be like 23% above 2019 levels, or they should be at identical levels, absolute, versus Q4 third quarter? Secondly, Swiss has particularly been at the center of the strong performance for the group. Yields, I mean, notably helped by the inclusion of the cargo operations. Should we not see a rationalization next year at Swiss for this extraordinarily good yields and cabin mix situation that we have into 2023 for Swiss? Lastly, the working capital difference between now and the 2019 levels, we noticed the slide. Still 20% below capacity, but is all of this coming from the very high yields booked in? Those are my three. Thank you.
Yeah. Remco here. Yeah, with regard to the yield improvement versus 2019, we expect to be Q4 also around 22%-23% above 2019.
Okay, hopefully that answers your first question. With regard to Swiss, correct? Swiss is an extraordinary brand in an extraordinary situation and a macroeconomic situation in Switzerland around Zürich. Very strong demand. Also, a group of people who could quite afford to travel in luxury, pay good prices for this. The Zürich Airport and also with our slot position, we are very well positioned there. With that, we expect Swiss to further progress next year in profitability versus this year, despite the fact that cargo might still come down. We have to see that also volume will go up further next year. Also there are certain cost savings which will pay off. We're very confident on the continued success in Swiss to further progress.
With regard to your last question on the working capital, there is an element of working capital related to the prepayments. Of course, when you think about prepayments, you have also to consider that prepayments go up by 20% if the yields go up by 20% if you compare to 2019. There we benefit from structurally to get a lower working capital level. Secondly, we've been working quite hard on our DSO positions, and you have to think particularly about Technik and in Cargo and on average in this regard. On payables, the DPOs historically in Lufthansa are more to 40 days, we have 60 days, and we are moving that up more in line what you find across industries.
Inventory management in Technik is also progressing through the learning of the crisis, and also there we hope to be in a better position. All in all, although we are 20% below 2019, even when we move further up, we expect to be in a better position in 2019, which is extremely important, of course, for the right returns, and also to reach our 2024 target of a ROC above 10%.
Thank you.
Next question is from the line of James Hollins with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Morning, everyone. A couple from me. Apologies for crying baby in the background. Firstly on staff agreements, you helped outline the 10 CLAs that have been concluded. Just wondering if you could run us through which groups still remain outstanding and how these negotiations are progressing. Secondly, just to follow up actually on the sale of Lufthansa Technik, I was just wondering if the partial sale would be inclusive or exclusive of your investment in HEICO Aerospace, or if you are actually considering that asset separately.
Thirdly, your US airline counterparts have talked fairly extensively about the structural change in business travel insofar that it's evolved to be more of a blend of business and leisure trips, which is seemingly being very beneficial in terms of yields, loyalty, and how efficiently it uses their networks. I was just wondering if that's a trend that we or you guys are seeing in Europe. Thank you.
Yeah, James. Carsten Spohr. On your last one, let me start with that. I think there is indeed a global shift of how people work, how people combine work with their way of life, and we see that as well. When I started at Lufthansa, the strongest day was always Friday. Now it's Thursday and Sunday. That says a lot, I think. What Scott from United was saying in terms of, I think it was Scott or any of the U.S. carriers have been saying, I think we will see that in Europe as well, probably a little later, probably a little less. But indeed, there is such a mix and that offers new opportunities for us. You walk through the business class cabin nowadays, you don't see necessarily typical business travelers.
You see affluent individuals who can afford to travel business class, be it long-haul or short-haul. On staff agreements, we are, I think, in the last days of concluding something with UFO, our cabin crew union for the main airline. I hear only good things about those negotiations, very constructive. I already promised the staff that there will be significant improvements on their, especially lower end of the pay scale. I think they deserve it with the inflation as we have it in Germany. I think this is gonna be good, not just for us in terms of stability and going ahead, but also for our very important members of the cabin crews. On Kapers, this cabin crew in Switzerland, there is also ongoing talks going on in a good way.
Of course, the big thing is always pilot negotiations for the two main airlines in Germany, Eurowings Germany, and the main airline. They are going separately. As you know, we have gained some peace here with the main airline negotiations till next summer to give ourselves more time for some discussions there. On the Eurowings, the discussions, you probably noticed that after those three days of strike, the management of Eurowings decided to reduce the German part of the fleet by five aircraft. I think that message has been understood, and they are now talking about the next steps on that, which I cannot disclose more than that they are discussing currently how to discuss the future. I think it was clearly heard what happened there last week.
Let me take the second question on the sale of Lufthansa Technik or the partial sale of Lufthansa Technik. Yeah, all the businesses, subsidiaries of Lufthansa Technik would be part and parcel of such a sale, which would then also include the HEICO Aerospace holding, correct? Which is part of the HEICO segment, which is part of the HEICO Group. It's one of the sub-subsidiaries of the HEICO Group. We're working very closely together there, but it will be part and parcel of the sale, yes.
Very clear. Thank you very much.
From the line of Johannes Braun, Stifel. Please go ahead.
Yes, hello, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have 2 left basically. The first one is, I understand that the CEO position for Edelweiss and also Discover Airlines has been merged. Just wondering what we should read into that. Is that kind of a prelude to a merger of those businesses as well? And then secondly, coming back to the Eurowings pilots in Germany, I think I read that they asked for another 14 days off, and you offered 10. I think they also asked for 5 less working hours per week. Just, I mean, maybe you can elaborate a little bit how that will impact the competitive situation of Eurowings and the strategy of Eurowings to actually be a low-cost carrier. Thank you.
Yeah, I have. Indeed. Let's go back one step. We always have said that the blueprint for Eurowings Discover is Edelweiss, who is very successfully adding to the network of Swiss in Zurich as Edelweiss, sorry, as Eurowings Discover is adding to the network of Lufthansa in Frankfurt and Munich. To have a very experienced person on top of both will mean we're looking not only for moving from the one successful blueprint to the other, but also, of course, we look for synergies. A clear no, though, on a merger. That's not intended and will not happen. Also, the brands will be as they are today. Last but not least, Eurowings pilots. Yeah, I think the answer of the Eurowings management has been very clear.
Additional costs result in less routes being profitable, result in less aircraft being needed, unless you can lower the cost somehow else. That's why five aircraft have been taken out. At the same time, the Eurowings management has conceded that the workload was very high this summer for various reasons, including very high level of training and others. I'm not a real expert on the situation there. There will be some relief on working conditions for the cockpit crews of Eurowings, which is why there has been an offer, because we believe it's a fair offer. If they would go further, it would, they endanger the business model, and that's why they have not given in, and that's indeed why they were forced to reduce the size of the German fleet by five aircraft due to additional costs. Also strike costs are HR costs.
I think people have to understand that. The way we allocate them in Lufthansa is that we always allocate them to the AOC which goes on strike, because it wouldn't be fair to punish the rest of the group if some labor group go on strike. We always consider strike costs to be particular labor costs for the AOC where they occur.
Thank you very much. Just to follow up on that, on talking about strike costs, how much was the strike cost for Eurowings so far?
We would say up to EUR 10 million a day. If you add that all up, gives you a number of EUR 30 million. More than Eurowings could afford, which is why they are now smaller.
Thank you.
Next question is from the line of Jarrod Castle with UBS. Please go ahead.
Great. Thanks, and good morning, everyone, and well done on the 3 Qs. Just on Sky Chefs, you know, obviously the profitability year to date and 3 Qs gone backwards. I mean, I guess in the report you talk about restrictions and CARES Act, but you know, what is going on there, and is that impacting kind of demand levels for the business in terms of bidders for the business, you know, and coupled with the fact that we've got pricing discount rates, just getting any views on the bid process. Secondly, you know, you're paying back governments by the end of the year. Government stakes have exited share register. How close are we to dividends or other use of excess funds on the balance sheet?
You know, you've spoken extensively, and we've seen it in the news a lot about, you know, manufacturers struggling to deliver on time, fleet. How are you thinking about fleet orders over, you know, not the near term, but the medium term? Do you need to kind of put orders in earlier to secure slots, or, you know, is it still, you know, how you've been procuring in the past? Thanks.
Let me take the first two questions. With regard to LSG, and you look at the profitability, correct? You have to look at LSG, and it's split between the Americas and Asia, correct? The Americas' profitability, which is also business is fully up and running, is going very well. As you know, Asia is still quite down, and therefore, of course, the profitability goes the other way. That's where we end up on the number which you have seen in our results. When you think about the sale process, there's quite some interest in the sale process. Of course, with costs going up, this has an impact. We do that evaluation as part of the sales process, but more than that, I can't comment.
For the dividend, assuming that the profitability will continue into 2023, which we are clearly expecting, we will be looking to start paying dividends again in 2024, over 2023. Anyway, that is not yet decided, but it is clearly something we will be evaluating to start that again as of 2024, for 2023. With regard to the third question, over to you, Carsten.
Yeah, thanks. You were asking if we are securing slots earlier or if we continue to move ahead as in the past. I think that or is wrong, because Lufthansa Group has always been working with adding options to confirmed orders. There's a three-digit number of options still out there which we can convert into fixed orders. I think it's a good question, but I think my answer basically is that we have always believed here to create some flexibility by adding options to orders and to convert these options or to renegotiate new deliveries is always a discussion over two dimensions and parameters. One is money, how much you have to pay for an aircraft. The other one is slots, time of delivery. Our team, of course, works on those two dimensions and parameters to optimize the fleet of the future.
Again, yes, we always will include significant number of options, and that's why, as you probably know, Lufthansa has following for decades a strategy of having a constant dialogue with at least Airbus and Boeing, rather than making these huge orders and then not to talk to each other for years. We believe in this continuous engagement, and that I think has served us well. Thank you.
Great, thanks.
Next question is from the line of Achal Kumar with HSBC. Please go ahead.
Hi. Morning, gentlemen. I had a couple. First of all, on the yields. You are expecting to maintain the yield in 2023 at the same level. What is it that gives you confidence about the yield? Is it more to do with the business traffic recovery or is it because the customer behavior has changed and now the customers are booking very close? Is it related to the short-term booking window where, of course, the fares are high closer to flight? What is it that exactly gives you confidence on the yield strength? And secondly, about the customer's behavior again.
I mean, you mentioned that the booking window is short, so that must be a bit of a challenge for you to manage your working capital. How do you see that booking window going ahead? Do you think slowly you can see the booking window expanding, and that will help you in the working capital management? How do you see that going ahead and how the booking window has changed over the last two years? Thanks.
Achal, it's Carsten. Yeah, on the yield question, of course, I could go on for probably hours, but we have to come to an end, I understand. Let me repeat a few things I've said. There is a squeeze of supply in the industry for the reasons I stated at least twice, so that usually creates high yields in a healthy demand environment. There's inflation all over the world. Surely, there's also inflation in travel. If you go to the U.S. now, you book a rental car, you book a hotel, you take your family out for lunch, you feel it. We also see it in this case, not as a consumer, but as a business on the other side. We see that in reflecting higher yields. Let's be honest, Lufthansa has a very high share of premium travel, first class, business class, premium economy.
There's a lot of global wealth around which we are profiting from, and we only have every fourth passenger coming from Germany. Three-quarters are coming from other parts of the world. This is why we are not affected by the recession, which probably Germany is entering as much as some other German businesses. With all that, I think we are indeed confident on yields for the next year as well. Rik, to your second question on the booking window, correct? What it does for the prepayments, correct? Is probably where you are looking for. Indeed, it is shorter. If the booking windows would increase, of course, our prepayments would accordingly increase as well. I think it's too early to say, but that trend definitely will be there should the booking windows further increase.
Sorry, would you mind giving some more color on the yield in terms of short haul versus long haul?
Yeah. Here the pattern remains very much the same as we have also seen in 2021. Yields are not as up as much in short haul as they are in long haul. We've seen increases all across our business over the course of 2022, and we don't see these trends changing anytime soon. For the fourth quarter, we expect to see a very similar pattern compared to Q3.
Okay, thanks.
This concludes our Q&A session. I would like to hand back over to Dennis Weber.
Yeah. Thank you very much for your interest and all your questions. I think we have answered them all. If that's not the case, please let us know, and otherwise, we look forward to meeting many of you over the next couple of weeks and months. Have a good day. Thank you. Bye-bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, this conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you very much for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.