Welcome to the global conference call of Mercedes-Benz . At our customers' request, this conference will be recorded. The replay of the conference call will also be available as an on-demand audio webcast in the investor relations section of the Mercedes-Benz website. The short introduction will be directly followed by a Q&A session. If you have difficulties during the conference, please press zero and the hash key on your telephone keypad for operator assistance. If you want to ask a question after the presentation, please press nine and the star key on your telephone keypad, and you will hear the following message: Thank you for your participation. Your request to speak is registered. When it's your turn to raise a question, you will hear the message: You are now in talk mode.
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Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Christina Schenck speaking. On behalf of Mercedes-Benz , I would like to welcome you both on the telephone and the internet to our Q3 results conference call. I'm very happy to have with me today Ola Källenius, our CEO, and Harald Wilhelm, our CFO. To give you more time for your questions, Ola will provide a brief introduction followed by Harald, who will detail our financials as usual. After that, we will move directly into the Q&A session. The respective presentation can be found on the Mercedes-Benz IR website. Before Ola kicks off his presentation, let's relive our IAA highlights one more time.
The all-new electric GLC.
Welcome, everybody. This morning, we published our third-quarter results, and I guess you've already skimmed through the numbers, so we'll be happy to give you a little context now. We're managing, as you know, a highly dynamic business environment from tariffs and political disruptions to intense competition in China and to heterogeneous BEV adoption around the world. As you can see in our results, we're navigating through it with prudence and a plan. From the beginning of the year, we took a realistic view about the challenges and opportunities ahead, and we will maintain this approach. Our first message is this: Q3 is in line with our 2025 guidance. All Q3 key performance indicators match full-year expectations. Yes, the current challenges need a lot of management attention, and while we're 100% focused preparing for the future, we will most definitely take our long-term goals into account.
The best answer in any market environment is customer orientation and product substance. Recently, we've made a lot of progress. With the CLA, we kicked off our biggest ever product launch program. The CLA is elevating its segment. It's our first software-defined car and the first Mercedes to run on MB.OS, and its efficiency is unparalleled. That's not just what I'm saying. Maybe you saw it a couple of days ago. One of Germany's most renowned car magazines basically wrote, "It's the best car we have ever tested." I mean, they've been evaluating cars for almost 80 years, and the CLA has just raised the bar. We now see this great feedback translating into customer orders. The CLA is gaining traction in the European market, and we're just at the beginning of a global rollout. We've also launched the new CLA Shooting Brake.
It offers the same product substance as the CLA and adds even more room. It's a very popular model amongst fleet customers, important for Europe. Both these cars also now in the next weeks start production of the hybridized ICE version. We met many of you guys in Munich in September. You saw the new electric GLC with your own eyes. It sports the new face of the Mercedes-Benz brand, combining iconic Mercedes elements with the latest technology, and that car can be ordered as of today. I'm sure the new GLC is about to continue the success story of our best seller in the electric era. With the new VLE and VLS models, we're expanding and elevating our range of grand limousines. We began pre-series production of the VLE in the third quarter. The next steps will follow soon. I recently drove one of those prototypes. Watch this space.
In that context, let me say a few things about our product strategy at this point. As announced, all added up, we plan to launch more than 40 new models by the end of 2027, and we want to spark desire wherever we choose to play. This includes a significant expansion in the top-end segment over the next two years. That's where Mercedes-Benz comes from. That's what we do best, and that's also what fuels our financial firepower. The focus on the top-end segment remains a cornerstone of our strategy. In addition, the core segment is where most of our volume is. It's the backbone of our business. Here, we'll complete our offering across all powertrains: BEV, plug-in hybrid, and ICE. The electric GLC marks the start, and the C-Class and more will follow. In the entry segment, you'll witness a complete reskinning of our offering.
Soon, the new CLA and CLA Shooting Brake will be followed by two SUVs. As you can see, we make sure to keep providing an accessible entry point into the world of Mercedes-Benz. This is particularly important for the European market, so we have this in mind. All these new products will carry the next generation of exceptional Mercedes technology, so we're keeping up the pace. In electric drives, we've showcased a new dimension of performance with the concept AMG GTXX. The car has shattered a whole series of records. It traveled around the world in less than eight days, covering over 40,000 km. Some might say that was a nice PR stunt, but in reality, it was the most demanding test drive of all time because the very technology that made this possible is going into series production already next year.
This includes axial flux motors and directly cooled batteries. Regarding software, we have entered the era of software-defined cars with MB.OS. We'll roll out MB.OS across our entire portfolio, BEV and ICE, and see constant evolution thanks to over-the-air updates. Our advancements in ADAS are elevating customer experience and increasing safety. We'll launch our point-to-point assisted driving system for urban traffic next week in China. Some call it Level 2++. I'll be happy to talk a little bit more about our way forward in a minute, but first, Harald will guide you through the numbers and give you our financial outlook. Harald, please.
Thank you, Ola, and hello, everybody. Let's continue with the group financials on page six. Revenues are at EUR 32 billion due to lower sales volume, however, partially offset by a better structure. The adjusted EBIT sits at EUR 2.1 billion. Obviously, we'll dive into that a bit more in detail. If you look at the EBIT booked, that sits significantly lower due to two effects: the NLPP restructuring program, as we call it, and the legal proceedings at Mercedes-Benz Mobility. Also, more on that a bit later. EPS is at EUR 1.22 billion. Also, we will give a bit more color on that in the section a bit later. In the third quarter, you might have noticed that we had a healthy cash generation with EUR 1.4 billion in the quarter, yielding a total year-to-date of EUR 5.6 billion free cash flow.
That brings us to a comfortable net industrial liquidity of EUR 32 billion by the end of Q3. Looking on the car sales, page seven, in July, we expected H2 sales in the vicinity of H1, with Q3 slightly lower and Q4 slightly higher. I would say this is exactly what happened for quarter three if you look at the 441,000 units sold. Overall, sales were influenced by the market environment in China and continued diligent stock management to mitigate U.S. tariffs and adjust the dealer inventory. Also worthwhile to notice, I would say top-end actually increased year over year by 10%, driven by G-Class, S-Class, and AMG. All in all, that leads to a higher TEV share of 15.4% in the quarter. Also interesting to see in China, the top-end sales increased by 13% year over year.
On the electrified vehicles, we could notice a 10% year-on-year increase driven by our plug-ins. Sequentially, our BEV sales increased by 22% in the third quarter versus the second quarter, driven by first deliveries of the electric CLA in Europe. Overall, we reached an XEV share of 22% in the quarter. On the cars financials, sales I just explained, revenue developed a bit better thanks to a higher CPU share and top-end share. The ADC remains stable. EBIT sits at an adjusted value of EUR 1.1 billion, cash conversion above one. Let's look a bit more in detail on page nine on the profit evolution. In quarter three, we achieved an adjusted EBIT of EUR 1.1 billion with a return on sales adjusted of 4.8%, respectively 6.3% ex tariffs.
On an overall note, if you look on the chart, you'll see that through our work on cost levers, we were able to offset the impacts of a dynamic market environment, including tariffs, the situation in China, and effects from FX. Let me guide you a bit more in detail. The bars on the chart: volume structure, net pricing, what is inside, lower unit sales that were nearly offset by a better structure due to a higher CPU and top-end share, flat net pricing, lower contributions from China, and overall the effects from tariffs, which amounted to roughly 150 bps in the quarter, slightly lower due to the stock management and lower U.S. group sales. The largest single part of the FX effect you see on the chart is Turkish Lira, for which we maintained pricing compensation. The remainder is driven by Korean Won and Japanese Yen.
The industrial performance is meaningfully positive, driven by the material cost saving and efficiencies in our operations. Similarly, we achieve cost savings in the other cost categories, including reduced direct selling expenses and lower non-capitalized R&D cost. Altogether, these buckets contributed to over EUR 1 billion positively in one quarter. Looking on the cash flow for cars, I see a bit adjusted at EUR 1.5 billion. We had some tailwind from the working capital, positive contribution coming from trade receivables due to lower parts suppliers to BVAC, had higher inventories, but also higher payables, which offset each other. The net investments in PPE equal almost the depreciation level. On the others, we have the adjustment for the non-cash effect of the NLP charges not yet cashed out, dealer provisions, and the reversal of the BVAC at equity result.
Moving to the Vans page 11, sales are at 84,000 units due to a competitive market environment. In Europe, we see the competition in the fleet business continuing. At the same time, we could double the XEV share to 10% thanks to improved availability of our E-Vans. In Europe, we achieved a BEV share of 14%. Revenues reached EUR 4 billion, driven by the sales development, an unfavorable mix, and a softer net pricing also impacting EBIT. More on that next page. On the cash flow side, you see reduced stock levels, which had a tailwind in terms of working capital. However, that was more than offset by the investments into our new van architecture and the ramp-up of the respective PPE. With that, we ended with EUR 300 million of CFB adjusted for Vans. Looking on the Vans profitability evolution, page 12, volume structure net pricing I already explained before.
Additionally, we saw a lower after-sales business and an impact from provisions for achieving CO2 targets. On the cost side, Vans benefited mainly from operational efficiencies, one-time valuation effects, and lower SG&A costs. R&D and others are a wash. That leaves us with a EUR 412 million adjusted EBIT, 10.2%, in a dynamic market environment, which is, I think, a good achievement. Page 13 on the mobility, the penetration rate increased. The new business volume decreased versus previous year, mainly due to the development of the unit sales and the FX effects. Portfolio remains stable over the quarter. Q3 adjusted EBIT is at EUR 313 million, with a return on equity adjusted at 9.6%. The main drivers of the improvement versus previous year are positive development in the portfolio margin, continuously a healthy acquisition margin, which are in line with our target returns.
The improved cost position for SG&A expenses are also supporting the margin improvement. These positive effects were partially offset by a higher cost of credit risk due to a softer global economic outlook. In the United Kingdom, the FCA recently published a draft redress scheme concerning motor finance commission models. Based on this development, we provisioned a mid-three-digit million euro amount in the third quarter, driving the significantly lower EBIT booked at minus EUR 180 million. We're currently reviewing the FCA's consultation paper and are considering our response to the FCA. Page 14 on the group EBIT, cars, vans, mobility, I explained already. In the recon, mainly you have the add equity result of Daimler Truck. Adjusted EBIT is therefore at EUR 2.1 billion. The adjustments refer to the restructuring and the legal proceedings at Mercedes-Benz Mobility. On the restructuring charges, let me give you a bit more color.
These refer to our NLPP personnel cost program, cost reduction program. We had an effect of roughly EUR 1.4 billion in the first nine months of this year. As you can see, we were making good progress on this topic. Please expect also some further progress in the fourth quarter on the NLPP program, however, lower than in Q2. Thereby, the group EBIT booked sits at EUR 750 million. The EPS is at EUR 1.22 billion, which includes positive effects from revaluation of deferred taxes due to a lower corporate income tax in Germany starting in 2028. If you look on the cash flow, we already talked about cars and vans. You see cash taxes at minus EUR 300 million, significantly lower than in previous years. The rest, I would say, is a wash.
With that, we achieved a solid EUR 1.4 billion free cash flow with adjustments of EUR 200 million due to the first cash outs for the NLPP restructuring program. Page 16, comfortable, healthy net industrial liquidity at EUR 32 billion. That brings us to page 70, the stuff you, I think, eagerly expected and anticipated, the share buyback. You know we have that capital allocation framework in place. You know what it means. We are therefore honoring our commitment to return free cash flow generated to shareholders. We stated earlier this year that we would initiate a new share buyback once we had better visibility on the cash generation. Now, we generated EUR 5.6 billion in cash in the first nine months of the year, and we paid out at the same time EUR 4.1 billion of a DBI.
That means we have generated roughly EUR 1.5 billion year to date after the DBI, and we anticipate further positive cash flow for the remainder of the year. Therefore, we've decided to initiate a new share buyback program with a volume of up to EUR 2 billion, planned to start next Monday, 3rd of November, and the program is expected to run for up to 12 months. As we said, we remain committed to our capital allocation framework, and we're pleased to be in a position to execute it now. With that, I would come to the outlook section, page 18, on the divisional guidances. First, and please consider the disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements at the end of this presentation in relation to the outlook. On the cars division, on the sales guidance, with 1.3 million units year to date, we continue to see 2025 significantly below 2024, mainly due to China.
H2 sales are expected in the vicinity of H1, with quarter four slightly higher than quarter three. On the U.S. side, we see underlying customer demand higher in quarter three than in Q3 and continue to manage stock levels to target. Q4 group sales are expected slightly higher than quarter three. In Europe, we expect solid momentum in the fourth quarter. The customer order intake is on a healthy level, which takes us into 2026. In China, the market environment remains challenging and the competition intense. Therefore, we expect quarter four in the similar ballpark as quarter three. On the global test share for the full year, we expect this to be well within the 14% to 15% range. Quarter four is expected in the ballpark of quarter three. The XEV share is at 21% year to date. Therefore, we continue to see full year between 20% and 22%.
On the return on sales, I mean, adjusted with 5.7% including tariffs and 6.7% underlying year to date, with a slightly higher volume in quarter four, continued dynamic pricing environment, a stable mix, cost seasonality, including fixed cost capitalization, as well as higher tariffs. We do confirm the guidance range of 4% to 6% and expect to be well within this range for the full year. With the cash conversion rate year to date now at 1.4, we raise our CCR guidance by one notch to a range of 4.9 - 1.1. No change on PPE and R&D. On the van side, sales usually come in higher in quarter four. This is expected to be the strongest sales quarter of the year, with the sales development in line with earlier expectations. Consequently, we're keeping the sales and the XEV guidances unchanged.
On the return on sales adjusted, in the first nine months, we achieved a healthy 10.7% return on sales adjusted against the year-to-date run rate we expect for the fourth quarter, positive impact from higher volumes, commercial dynamics to continue, headwinds from seasonality of material cost one-timers, and the ramp-up of the transformation of factories for the next generation of vans. We expect the impact from the tariffs to be less than 100 bps on the van side. This aligns well with our previous assumptions, and I mean, therefore, we confirm the full year guidance range of 8% - 10%, including tariffs, and expect the full year to finish at the upper end of the range. With the CCR year to date at 0.9, we raise the CCR guidance also by one notch here.
On the mobility, we are at 9.1% return on equity adjusted year to date, and we expect the full year unchanged in the range of 8% - 9%, also rather at the upper end. This leaves me to comment on the group guidance. Page 19 follows obviously the same assumptions as the segment guidance. On top of the divisional guidance, the group EBIT will be impacted by the restructuring and the legal proceedings, as I commented before. With EUR 5.6 billion of cash generation year to date, we are well on track with regard to the cash generation for the full year. With this, I hand back to you, Ola.
Thanks, Harald. I think this environment will remain dynamic, and I can say this, we're very aware of the challenges ahead of us. That's why our fundamental priorities are firm: desirable products, technological leadership, customer focus, profitable growth, and, of course, attractive shareholder returns. We have a plan, and I think that the results of the first three quarters clearly demonstrate our execution focus. At the same time, we're not afraid to adapt when circumstances change. The animal that is able to adapt is the one that survives and thrives in evolution. Going forward, we'll offer our customers the full range from BEVs and hybrids to high-tech ICE all the way to V8s because customers decide what suits them best, and we will continue to listen to the customer. We can respond to market demand with new products because our architectures allow technologically convincing and cost-efficient solutions.
No technical compromises in terms of the packaging of the cars for the customer. We're constantly readjusting our go-to-market strategy because the operating optimum of a business is a moving target, certainly in the market that we're in right now. We're taking on the challenge in the Chinese market with ChinaFitTech and products and a new approach to fundamentally improve product costs because the hypercompetition in China is not going away anytime soon. This is certainly a multi-year task. Looking ahead, we expect the market environment to remain challenging, and we retain a realistic view, but we also remain confident in the strength of our product pipeline and the upcoming ramp-ups, which will have their full impact beyond 2026 and will unfold fully during 2027. Mercedes-Benz is driven by a management team also with new minds, fresh ideas, and a lot of energy.
We'll jointly press ahead with our product and tech launch program, and we will remain focused on enhancing the customer experience. We'll continue to drive efficiency across our company, and we're committed to generating attractive returns for our shareholders. We are determined. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Ola and Harald. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now ask your questions. I will identify the questioner by name. However, please also introduce yourself with your name and the name of the organization that you're representing before asking your question. A few practical points: please ask your question in English, and as a matter of fairness, please limit the number of questions to a maximum of two. Now, before we start, the operator will explain the procedure.
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We start the Q&A, and the first question goes to Jose Asumendi from JPMorgan.
Good morning, Jose Asumendi from JPMorgan. Congratulations on the results today. Two questions, please. Ola, the first one's maybe to you. I'm seeing very rapid developments on robotaxi and autonomous driving. Jensen at Nvidia yesterday mentioned Mercedes-Benz as one of the key partners in this journey. I was thinking if you could please talk about this, you know, top-down and bottom-up transition when it comes to ADAS. Increasing the level of autonomy and ADAS features on the entry vehicles, and then also, you know, testing that robotaxi. Specifically, if you could also speak about the partnership with Momenta.
For Harald, if you could maybe speak about the auto division when we think about the fourth quarter, and you talk a bit about the restructuring charges you see in Q4 in the auto division, as well as the impact of tariffs that you have in the budget in Q4, and any mitigation measures you're planning to implement. Thank you.
Good morning, Jose. With regard to ADAS, you can now very much see the benefits of the platform that MB.OS gives us. We now have a very, very strong digital foundation to stand on, where we can also integrate and work with different partners. As I mentioned in my speech, and you know this, of course, we're launching Level 2++ in China now. In terms of software and also the hardware capability of the cars, in essence, the sky is the limit. If you want to take this beyond Level 2++ into Level 3 and Level 4 territory, then you need to have more redundancy on board. This way, we're already proving with the current S-Class that we know how to do this. It goes without saying that this journey will continue.
The push forward by Nvidia yesterday to announce that they want to take on the full-scale Level 4 challenge is something that we very much welcome. Having worked together with Nvidia now for more than four years, establishing the foundation for this whole tech stack, it's a natural choice that when Level 4 comes to fruition, Mercedes is part of that game. That doesn't mean that we're now going to turn ourselves into a mobility services company. That's not the message. We have, I think, the best technical foundation with our vehicles, both hardware and software, to do this. We will work as part of this consortium on that task. In China, we know that China is its own digital ecosystems in many respects, and that is how ADAS is developing in China.
That's why I'm very happy that many years ago now, in kind of the first seeding round or second round, when Momenta was even just a small startup, we spotted them. We were one of the very early investors, and we have worked with them ever since. That now has come to fruition with the launch of a whole generation of cars that we're launching here in the next 24, 30 months in China. With Momenta, we can take this journey as well because that foundation that I mentioned that MB.OS gives us, that works in the east, and it works in the west.
Hello, Ozan. Your second question on quarter four. First, maybe on the tariff side, you could see in the third quarter, we had a tariff impact of 150 basis points in that quarter. Commented before that, I mean, on the quarterly run rate, that was a bit lower due to lower U.S. group sales. As said before, we expect quarter four group sales, I mean, to be at a bit higher level. Therefore, I mean, expect a bit of a higher charge on the tariffs in the fourth quarter. I think that also explains the guidance which we're giving here for the full year and the fourth quarter. On the restructuring program, the NLPP restructuring program, that's an adjusted element. I think I commented before, I mean, on the group level, basically, you had EUR 800 million of a charge in the third quarter.
That makes it a year to date of EUR 1.4 billion. I said, I mean, expect some more in the fourth quarter, but less than in the second quarter. Second quarter, I mean, was EUR 600 million. I think you can roughly make the math, I mean, what that should be at group level. If you look on page nine of the deck, you will find the cars numbers in the third quarter, EUR 666 million. I think it gives an idea compared to the EUR 800 million, what the share for cars can be in the fourth quarter. Again, it's an adjusted item. Let me emphasize the payback of that is rather spontaneous and fast. Quite a lot of people will leave until the end of the year or at the beginning of 2026. That will lead to some significant headcount down. Obviously, that will lower the personnel cost charges in 2026.
We do expect a payback of that one in the vicinity of two years or less.
Thank you so much.
Thank you very much, Jose. My next question goes to Tim Rokossa from Deutsche Bank.
Thank you. Good morning. It's Tim from Deutsche Bank. I'd like to reiterate what Jose just said. I know let's get marked for saying that, but that was a great quarter. I think you are clearly delivering on what you had promised us, also with the share buyback program, Harald. Thank you. Two and a half questions, please. The first one, just very quickly, follow up to what you just said. Are there going to be more charges on restructuring next year, or will you largely be done in 2025? My two questions. When we think about the cost savings coming in and all sorts of other moving items that we know so far, the implied run rate for cars of like 4.5% - 5% for H2, is that a good run rate that we should think about as an exit run rate into next year?
What are the moving items on the cash flow side that we already know about today? You have the FCA charge that will be a cash out next year. You probably have some cash out for the restructuring. At the same time, there's probably some cost savings coming in. What is that you can already share with us? Secondly, Ola, probably to you, when we think about the supply chain, Nexperia being a very prominent example, do you see any immediate production risk out there at the moment, or is everything sort of stretched but manageable? Thank you.
Yeah, Tim. Hello. On restructuring, whatever we have in mind that we want to do, that's basically considered in the books. Any further evolution in terms of footprint, what is not yet in our minds today would be another item for 2026, but I don't want to speculate on that one. From today's point of view, everything is either recorded in the books year to date or in the outlook for the remainder of the year. In terms of the cost savings, we made good progress in the third quarter. I emphasized the billion improvement in the third quarter compared to a year ago. At the second quarter, we commented that is roughly EUR 800 million. That makes, if you take a year-to-date approach, a pretty sizable number. We will not rest there. We'll continue, as commented just before, the benefits of the NLPP restructuring program. We'll kick in in 2026.
As we know, the market environment is tough, and I assume that to remain challenging. As we take a realistic view, we are trying to prepare ourselves for that one, so that also in 2026, we can make further progress on cost savings. In terms of cash generation, it's a bit too early to speculate now about 2026. For sure, what is provisioned today should normally lead to a cash out at a later point in time. The majority of the cash charges we're talking here in the third quarter, SCA as well as NLPP, will therefore fall into 2026. That is for sure. I think you might confirm that we have a track record that we'll try to stretch cash generation by all means and will approach 2026 with this in mind.
Good morning, Tim. Let's just take a step back and look at this situation from a distance first. In a modern high-tech car, you have pretty much all five continents inside that modern car. There are many nodes across many components and technologies that provide a large share, in some cases, the full share of what modern cars need. Nexperia happens to be one of those nodes, albeit with relatively straightforward components, but components that you find in many, many, many subassemblies, ECUs, et cetera. There is a significant difference between this situation and what we were talking about only a couple of years ago when we were dealing with the chip crisis.
This is a politically induced situation where one of those nodes has been hit, which means that the solution to this, or the resolution to this, resides in the political space, primarily between the United States and China, in this case with Europe kind of caught in the middle. I know that there are intense talks going on on pretty much all levels to see if this can be resolved. It's not the same as we had during the chip crisis. For the short term, we're covered. It goes without saying that we're scurrying around the world to look for alternatives. I don't want to make a prediction at this stage how the whole thing plays out. I'll leave it at that.
Thank you.
Thank you very much, Tim. The next question goes to Patrick Hummel from UBS.
Thanks, and good morning, Patrick from UBS. Well done on the share buyback. Basically, my questions have been asked by Tim. I'll focus on China. Can you talk a little bit about what your expectations are for the market in the next few months, next couple of quarters? With all the low visibility that we always have to deal with when it comes to China, you said the market remains challenging. I think there is no fresh product in China for a little while. At the same time, you're working on your dealer network to streamline that. If we put it all together, volume, pricing, dealer compensation, are you reasonably confident that things are not going to deteriorate in the coming quarters? Is it fair to assume that 2026 we'll probably see another year of decline in China? Thank you.
Patrick, whereas the call today is not the call where we make a guidance or projection specifically for 2026, of course, you know that. Let me just talk about what is affecting the Chinese situation. That's why I also said in my speech that these fundamental premises that affect the Chinese market are not changing anytime soon. We still have an economy that is trotting along and where you can see that this cautiousness on behalf of the consumer, also in the upper segments, that cautiousness has remained for more than two years now. There's no fundamental change in the immediate future that we think will change this.
The hypercompetition that we're seeing in China with significantly more than 100 players vying for this market and what I believe is the eventual consolidation of that market, it's not something that happens overnight, but it's a process that probably takes several years. What do you have to do in that situation? It always starts with the customers, kind of the gist of my speech. The product rollout that we are now starting, which of course also affects China in the next 24 months- 36 months, every one of those products that we have in the pipeline, and we're talking nothing less than almost like a reskimming of our whole portfolio here in three years' time, we have very, very carefully thought through what do we think the Chinese customer wants.
I mean, beyond the obvious things that you need more space, but a perfect smart cockpit infotainment offering, an ADAS offering that meets the expectation of the market. Next to that, product focus and product defensive that, yes, we'll roll out over a couple of years now. It's also about the cost structure and how do we rejig our setup in China. This is what we have said before, kind of become more Chinese. Eventually, at the end of that process, we are more or less 100% China for China. Part of that is, of course, looking at your cost structure in the immediate term as well, looking at capacities, making sure that you manage that. Thank goodness we have a very flexible production system set up there. We are adjusting. Also the dealer body, focus on the strong ones.
If there are underperforming ones, now is the time to adjust that. We are pulling all the levers in China. I don't want to make a prediction, as I said, for 2026. It's clear that this is something that is not a short-term issue.
Appreciate that, Carter. Thanks, Ola.
Thank you, Patrick. The next question goes to Mike Tyndall from HSBC.
Yeah. Morning, gentlemen. It's Mike Tindall from HSBC. I wonder if we could talk about CLA a little bit. We've now got that product in the market. You've now probably got a better sense of where production cost is. Should we be thinking about this as the bookend of all of the refresh? Is it notably more profitable to produce than the predecessor? Are we seeing a significant drop in supply compensation because the expectation on BEV is now married to the reality? I wonder if you could talk a bit about that. Harold, I guess the obvious question is you've kept the return on sales ranges for the full year, but it certainly looks like you could have tightened them up. Is there something you're seeing that makes you want to say, "Look, I need that space," or is it just a question of being conservative? Thanks.
Yeah, Mike. If you look on the CLA right now, first, I would say great market endorsement. Ola mentioned, I think, the test results, but also if we look into the order intake, which I think is another good indicator in terms of market acceptance, we're very happy with the order book building up. As we deliver vehicles to customers, we obviously can see what the margin does on the vehicle. Even so, it's a bit early days, I would say. If I compare to equivalent products, the CLA didn't have a BEV predecessor, so it's a bit difficult in terms of a like-for-like. Overall, I think the margin, which is coming up from the vehicles delivered already, definitely has a structural change compared to previous EV models.
I think that is opening a chapter in terms of the next, the new generation EV vehicles, not only in terms of product, but also in terms of variable cost base, and therefore also in terms of margin evolution. Your question on the fourth quarter, I commented before, we'll carry a bit higher tariffs. It will carry also seasonal cost phasing. It will also carry a step up in terms of some supplier one-off compensation, which we still see at a higher level in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter. We keep the guidance range at the four to six, but to be clear, I think the options you offered in terms of is there something we see which we didn't share, or is it more prudence? I would rather hint to the latter one.
For sure, there is still uncertainty, I think, on tariffs on a couple of relationships. I think everybody's looking forward to tomorrow when we think about China and the U.S. That just keeps a bit more flex in the space in terms of keeping the guidance at four to six in terms of the underlying. I think you heard us commenting before that we'd rather see that at the midpoint. Therefore, I would judge it more as a matter of prudence.
Got it. Thank you.
Thanks very much, Mike. The next question goes to Philippe Houchois from Jefferies.
Right. Good morning. Thank you for taking the question. I've got two if I can. The first one is on the U.S. market. We've seen, again, changes in the tariff environment between the inclusion of engines in the potential offsets and the EUR 3.75 million production credits being cared for longer. Obviously, a benefit to the U.S. carmakers. I'm just wondering if in 2026, last year or this year, you've done mostly destocking in the U.S. How much of a benefit to you is there from the changes in the offset calculation from the White House? How much benefit is there from you being able to use your high mix of vehicles and sell more V8 and bigger engines in the U.S.? Should we think of the U.S.
as being quite positive next year as you rebuild stock, have a better mix, and potentially have a bit of relief on the tariff side? Second question, more specifically on FX, you had a significant headwind on FX in the third quarter. I'm just wondering, as we think about 2026, what can you tell us about your hedging policy and what it means as given the more expensive euros and the cheaper dollar, what it means for your 2026 earnings? Thank you.
Maybe I'll start with the market, but I'll let Harald comment on the financial impact because you mentioned the offset 375, which is four parts, obviously. I know you know. Yes, it is true that particularly in Q2 and Q3, we made our best efforts to manage wholesale to optimize the financial result. That is the bottom line. I don't want to go into now a specific kind of market guidance for 2026. Of course, it's clear, so I'm going to stay away from that, but I would like to say this as a general statement looking forward. If I take a five-year view on the U.S.
market, how we're set up, the product portfolio that we have, the products that we have in the pipeline, also this fundamental product offensive here in the next two to three years, yes, I do believe that in the next five years, that will also benefit us in the United States. We look at the United States as a growth market and a market where we want to increase our footprint. That is absolutely clearly a part of our strategy. Having said that, the 15%, yes, not 27.5%, but the 15% of a significant part of the vehicles coming into the United States remain. That has then not gone away. We will try to manage that as best we can. Maybe details on the financials of that.
Yeah, Philip, you're absolutely right. I mean, the extension of the 375 in terms of going for longer and staying at 375 rather than coming down has a supportive impact. I think at an earlier stage for the year, we commented that the tariff copy could have a run rate of, I mean, around up to 200 basis points run rate. Moving forward, you could see in the third quarter, it was 150. I commented before that fourth quarter could be a bit higher. If we now take that picture into 2026, again, without making predictions now on 2026, but I would say probably, I mean, the tariff bill comes in rather at 152 basis points- 200 basis points, but not 200 as such. The 375 credit scheme, I think, is a favorable element in this respect.
On the FX side for 2026, I don't want to look into crystal ball here, but I mean, if you look on how we are hedged for in terms of the US dollar and the renminbi, I think we're pretty well covered throughout, I mean, 2026. Probably not too much of an exposure in that respect. If I look at other currencies, I mean, if we see continued softness on the Korean Won and the Japanese Yen, that's something where we would be less covered, I mean, for 2026. Whereas on Turkish Lira, we see now for quite some time, softness on the currency, however, kind of a natural hedge via pricing. I hope that helps.
Great. Thank you very much. Very helpful.
Thanks, Philippe. The next question goes to Horst Schneider from Bank of America.
Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions as well. I want to get back basically to Munich Auto Show. When we met there, I had the impression everything was a little bit more subdued. Now, I think the environment is a little bit brighter. Can you summarize now what in the end is the delta versus Munich Auto Show? What really got better versus your initial expectations? Is it just top end? Is it then price mix? You think this is going to continue also through the coming quarters? We can expect a little bit better results, mainly on the back of positive price mix. The second question that I have is, again, on industrial performance cost cutting. You make very good progress here, and you say you continue to cut costs also in 2026, of course. When do we achieve basically the peak in bridge terms?
How long can industrial performance basically remain such a strong driver, or when is the item coming down from a bridge perspective, maybe? Thank you.
I have to go back and look at my own speech that I gave there in Munich. You know that we usually take a sober and matter-of-fact approach to our communications. I could not detect a major difference in my tone or style between Munich and now. What we did say in Munich is we're staying the course, and the results today are we're staying the course. We delivered on the key performance indicators as had been announced. What did give me a positive feeling in Munich, though, most definitely, was the reaction to the products that we were presenting. I had the opportunity not only to, of course, engage with you guys in press and so on, but with very many dealers, very many customers.
If you had stayed on in Munich, I don't know if you did, you could see that people were standing in line, 20 people behind each other, just waiting to just get a glimpse of the GLC. The message that we did get from Munich was the new face of Mercedes, the iconic grille taken into the future, seems to have hit the nerve. A product that is technologically very advanced in many dimensions, leading, but combined with what we called Mercedes-Benz welcome home feeling that everything is thought through. It's a Mercedes through and through. That also seems to have hit the nerve. If there's anything that we are, I don't know, feeling encouraged by, and now with all the other products that we're going to launch, is that the second-gen BEVs, but of course, this carries on to the ICE as well, that we're onto something.
That is certainly true.
I'll ask maybe quickly on the numbers. I do remember that I almost ended up in a negotiation with some of you, whether it is 4.0 or 3.95 for the third quarter. If I may, I think in terms of sales, it came in line with expectation. Top-end share, I think, was stronger. I think that was a favorable tailwind. I think also efficiencies, we made good progress in the third quarter. In terms of the underlying, yes, we can say that we did better in the third quarter and definitely, we want to take that momentum moving forward. You could also see on the cash flow, that was supportive, including working capital. We'll not rest here, as commented before. We'll keep going with our performance improvement program 2026 into 2027.
I'd like to remind you of what we outlined in February this year during the CMD in terms of the ambitions we take on us to mitigate for the headwinds. We do know that since we had the CMD in February, the market environment became even more demanding in China on volume and on pricing side. That means we rather reflect how to take it even to a higher level to make good for the incremental headwind we're facing. As Ola Källenius said before, here and today is probably not the point to talk about 2026 in more detail. The approach, the spirit we and the team take is clearly to work rigorously on the performance also in 2026 into 2027.
That's great. Thank you so much, and all the best.
Thank you very much, Horst. The next question goes to Henning Cosman from Barclays.
Good morning. Thank you for squeezing me in. I was just also actually going to ask on the Harald just mentioned the February plan. I sometimes find it a little bit difficult to keep track of where we stand. I think in February, the target had basically implied 300 basis points more or less just from the cost savings on flattish volume, flattish price mix. Harald said about a two-year payback of what's going to be roughly EUR 2 billion of provisions by the end of the year. I guess that's two points. I'm just wondering a bit about the reference point. Are we still thinking about 300 points improvement potential, but then apply that to the midpoint of the Mercedes-Benz Cars margin range, so 5% + 8%? Have we eaten into the 300 points improvement potential by that EUR 1 billion that we're going to see this year already?
If you can just help me there a little bit as to where we stand, can we still think about 300 points from obviously now a lower starting point? Second question, just a bit of housekeeping. Your main competitor in Munich obviously spoke about a bit of a distortion from later refunds from U.S. tariff cash held in escrow. You didn't really comment on that. Is there an opportunity for you to receive that next year to perhaps offset some of the cash outs, or were you just more aligned all along and had anticipated the timing of the refunds better? Thank you very much.
On the cost savings, let's wrap up shortly. In February, I think we outlined what are the savings expectations and targets that we have in the different chapters on production costs, on material cost compared to 2024 actuals into 2027. 8% on material cost, 10% on production cost, 10% on fixed cost, 10% on funding. These targets, I think, are still valid. If you look into the slides of 2025, I think we're tracking pretty much in line with these, maybe even slightly ahead of it. As I said just before, we don't take it easy and then slow down. We'll come back on the initial trajectory. No, we'll definitely take them as a base and push the savings forward into 2026 and into 2027, and probably rather look at a higher level on the variable cost challenge compared to the numbers we gave in the CMD in February.
I think definitely when we get to 2026, we will give more color on that in terms of what does it mean, how is the plan moving forward. For now, these targets remain intact with a bit of a tailwind we can take from the 2025. On what we call the escrow held on the tariffs and the refunds, yes, I think there is some refund to be expected. I would say we take a cautious view on that. P&L-wise, I think it's crystal clear what we did. The tariffs at 15% from Europe to the U.S. have been applied and applied retroactively in the P&L. We take a bit more cautious view with regard to Europe as Brussels seems to be a bit slow. The amounts therefore to be recouped from the pre-August situation are yet to be cashed in.
At maximum, I think we see that in the two-digit number, not in the three-digit.
Thank you, Harald. Well done on the cost.
Thanks very much, Henning. We have time for one last question. I would hand that over to Stephen Reitman from Bernstein.
Yes, good morning. Two questions, please. First of all, congratulations on the very good reception you've been talking about for the CLA. I know it's again, it's very early days, but can you talk about what you're seeing in terms of are you seeing any conquest from other brands? What is the reaction on the vehicle in what you're seeing from around the world as well? Secondly, on the Vans business, still a very high margin and probably a lot better than the commercial margins that some of your competitors are probably seeing coming out of my particularly the commercial space rather than your passenger vehicles. Could you comment a bit more about how you see that going on? Thank you.
Stephen, I'll start with the CLA. As you know, we have now launched in the European markets and are rolling out quickly. We're launching now in China and in the United States, and then we'll go overseas. I think it's a little bit too early days to say exactly where Conquest comes from because we didn't have a predecessor electric vehicle in this segment, so for us, it's almost like it's a conquest across the board, combined with some people or more people switching them from ICE to BEV. It's too early days to make a more serious analysis of how that's going. What we can say, though, is that we look at early customer feedback, and early customer feedback next to the general feedback on the car has been very positive.
On the Vans margin, Stephen, you're right, 10.7% year to date, 10.2% in the quarter. We guide 8% to 10%, but you heard it loud and clear. Rather, towards the upper end of the higher end of the band, that's the target for this year. Here is not the point to talk about 2026. As we commented on cars before, I think we take a realistic view on the market evolution, which is also competitive.
We clearly see that. The same thing, try to fight it by mix, by structure, by cost improvements. At the same time, ramping up, however, the van, the new van platform, in terms of the product, but also in terms of the PPE, that will constitute some headwind in 2026. The ambition of the team is definitely to keep the margin high. I would not speculate now whether it's a high single digit or whether it is a double digit. Let's work on that, and we'll get back in February on it.
Is there any particular reason why you're doing so much better in Germany than in the rest of Europe?
Germany has always been our best market for our commercial vans. We have an unbelievable customer loyalty, an unbelievable service network, and by the way, our product is pretty good too.
Thank you.
Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen, for your questions and for being with us today. Also, thank you very much to Ola and Harald for answering the questions. I know we had a few more questions in the queue. As you know, Investor Relations remains at your disposal to answer any further questions that you may have. To all of you, have a great morning, a great afternoon, and a great evening. Thanks, and goodbye.