Hello, everyone, and apologies for the delay. Fortunately, we had a bit of a technical hiccup here, and we had to change the invite. Very sorry for that, very sorry for the inconvenience, but yeah, we've got enough time, I think, to go through all of the points, which I will start to do. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, everyone. This is Christina speaking. I'm Head of Investor Relations and Treasury at Mercedes-Benz Group. On behalf of Mercedes-Benz, I would like to welcome you to our Q2 2025 pre-close call. I'll give you a quick summary of already public information and current key developments of the quarter about Mercedes-Benz Group AG. Subsequently, we will have a few minutes, as always, for your potential questions. Please be aware, the quarter is not closed yet, and therefore the answers to potential questions are limited to our current knowledge.
We're happy to go into more depth as part and following the disclosure. Please mute yourself during the session. We will try to do that as well on our side, but super important that we have as little interruption as possible. Thanks in advance for that. Please note our presentations contain forward-looking statements that reflect management's current view with respect to future events. Such statements are subject to many risks and uncertainties. If the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect, then actual results may be materially different from those expressed or implied by such statements. Forward-looking statements speak only to the date on which they're made. Let's start with Mercedes-Benz cars. We'll go through group sales for the quarter two 2025. I'll start with a quick review to our results conference 2024 and what we guided for 2025.
We said that we're looking at sales slightly lower than 2024. Let me share what we see in our three markets. Everything that I say, of course, relates to the second quarter only. Looking at Europe, sales are robust as expected. In the U.S. and in China, we had to carefully calibrate our group sales to navigate dynamic global tariff policies. For China, we also maintain our cautious view as we continue to see sales lower. Again, we already guided that at the beginning of the year. The U.S. market continues to see solid momentum, however, resulting in a strong increase overall in the overall retail sales. That also applies to the top-end side. All in all, Q2 sales are expected in the ballpark of Q1 2025.
On the TEF share side, we see ourselves within the guidance corridor of 14%-15%, but rather at the lower end of that corridor. Regarding XEV, happy to share that we anticipate XEV sales up in Q2. Looking at the CLA that obviously had its sales release in Europe, we do see that orders are gaining momentum. Now, looking at return on sales, in Q1, obviously, we achieved a return on sales adjusted of 7.3%, and we did confirm the full year guidance before tariffs. For Q2, we expect the margin for the underlying business also to be within the guidance range, but rather at the lower end. Considering tariffs now, obviously, we live in a world of tariffs. We said that we could see a margin impact of 300 basis points for the full year 2025.
The 300 basis points would obviously be a full year effect, arising from three quarters only, so the tariff impact per quarter is respectively higher. There are certain things that were considered in the 300 basis points and certain things that were not factored in. Let me take you through it. Just again, the 300 basis points considered some mitigations such as pre-stocking. The current tariff ease between the U.S. and China, however, and the U.S. tariff offsets on import parts were not factored in. Now considering the U.S.-China tariff ease and the potential from the U.S. tariff offset and also April only ramping up in terms of tariffs, we currently view the tariff impact for Q2 as below 300 basis points. Now, looking at advanced at the van division, I'll also start with what we said at the beginning of the year.
We guided the full year sales slightly lower than 2024. As observed in the first quarter, we continue to see a competitive environment for vans also in Q2. Sales are expected lower versus previous year, yet sequentially improving. What that means is quarter over quarter. As expected, we also see our EV share on vans increasing. Due to the market environment, we may see a Q2 return on sales adjusted before tariffs, rather at the lower end of our guidance range. Regarding tariffs, let's also review what we said. We said that we could see a full year 2025 margin impact of up to 200 basis points. Also here, this did not consider the U.S. tariff offset potential. Considering the ramp-up of the tariff effect and the potential offset, we expect the tariff impact Q2 return on sales adjusted for vans to be small.
Now, let's move on to the mobility side of the house. For mobility, the situation in Q2 remains largely unchanged when you look at Q1. What does that mean? We continue to see competition in China impacting the penetration rate. The portfolio margin, we do see still at a subdued level, also, of course, as a function of the volume loss in China. On a global level, however, the acquisition margin continued to look healthy. Just a word of caution on the mobility side. Of course, the recent worsening of the global economic outlook may, of course, result in higher cost of risk, not something that we see today, but just something to keep in mind. Overall, we expect Q2 return on equity adjusted within the full year guidance range. Now, let's look at the free cash flow of the industrial business.
As previously communicated, we expect the free cash flow of the industrial business, including any impact from tariffs, significantly lower than Q1, but still meaningfully positive. All right. Thank you very much for your attention. Let's now move into your questions. Just a few practical points. Please use the raise your hand function in Teams to join the Q&A queue. I already see some. We will activate your microphone when it is your turn. Please unmute yourself while you ask the question. Ask a question in English and then make sure to mute yourself again. As a matter of fairness, please try and limit the number of your questions to one. Now let's start with the questions. The first one goes to Tim Rokossa from Deutsche Bank.
Yeah, thank you, Christina. Tim here. Thank you for doing this. Okay, one question only then. Can you walk us through the theoretical process of how and when you would adjust your guidance to any tariff reality, i.e., the industry was obviously hoping for a deal. BMW was quite specific on this, so was VW. So far, it hasn't materialized yet. I think there's still some hope on the next few weeks now. Should that not materialize, at what point in time would you tell us that it doesn't, would start raising prices and give us a new indication for the full year? Thank you.
Sure, Tim. Absolutely valid question. Thank you very much for that. Obviously interesting to everyone. Obviously, we will give you additional color at the actual disclosure call. This call obviously is for information that is already available. We try and frame it a little bit just to give you a better understanding of what to expect in the second quarter, obviously with tariffs being in place in terms of the process going forward. That, of course, guiding for the full year, obviously what we pulled out in the first quarter would require a bit more visibility and stability, not only in terms of the tariff regimes that are out there, obviously any sort of deal or non-deal, but also the effect of commercial measures that have not been included so far and have not been materializing for us and for the competition.
We need a bit more visibility to then adjust any sort of guidance for the remainder of the year. As soon as we have that, we will obviously share that with you.
Thank you.
You're welcome. Let's move to Patrick Hummel from UBS.
Thank you. Hi, everybody. Thanks, Christina, for hosting this call. As far as your volume comment for cars is concerned, roughly stable versus the first quarter, was that a commentary on retail level, on wholesale level? Can you just help us understand what kind of tactical inventory management might have influenced that figure? I would have thought on wholesale level, the first quarter was quite soft that we would see a step up in the second quarter. Thank you.
That was a comment on the wholesale levels for Q2. When I said Q2 sales, I expected in the ballpark of Q1 2025, that relates to group sales. I have already also mentioned that obviously with the introduction of tariffs and the super high levels we have seen between the U.S. and China for a while, and obviously the introduction for the new tariff levels at Europe-U.S., we have seen a bit of a stop and go. Calibrating group sales a bit tactically is what we saw in Q2, and overall that results roughly in the ballpark of Q1. The comment I made on retail sales related to the U.S. market specifically. I do believe that is of interest to understand what is the consumer side of things.
There we have seen a strong increase in retail sales, basically also on the top end, as I mentioned, and that was my comment relating to retail sales. Otherwise, I was commenting group sales.
Thank you, Christina.
Welcome, Patrick. I am moving on to Horst Schneider from BofA. Horst, over to you. Horst, I can see you and I love your cap, but I cannot hear you.
Now you can hear me probably.
Yes, perfect.
I actually put my Mercedes cap on.
Yeah.
Identification for the company. Thank you. Now, question on Mercedes, I guess since you said without tariff, margin would be at the lower end of the range. Usually Q2 is a quarter where the margin is rather at the higher end of the range, and then it comes down into the summer period due to production. Is that largely related to volume or was there other negative effects, specifically pricing, which pulled the margin down? On tariffs again, since you said that the free cash flow is still meaningfully positive in Q2, have you already paid tariffs or is the tariff payment actually just coming with some delay? Yeah, this is the first two questions. Thank you.
Yeah. Yeah, happy to answer your questions. On your first one regarding the underlying performance for Q2, what are the reasons? Remember the Q1 result, obviously return on sales adjusted at 7.3%. We had a very strong industrial performance that we already flagged would not necessarily repeat to the same extent in the second quarter. Of course, we had a tariff and the calibration of the group sales, also a bit of a stop and go situation here. With that, we are within the guidance corridor. Super important to mention, but rather at the lower end. On the tariff side, at some point, and I think we're starting to see that it will be difficult to distinguish between indirect and direct tariff effects. What I've given you now, of course, is the direct implication on payments, on tariff payments that happened. That can be distinguished.
Of course, the comment I made to the extent of the group sales, that gets to a point where it's difficult to differentiate. What we can see overall, we are within the guidance range as communicated when it comes to our underlying business, and then the tariff impact comes on top. In terms of the free cash flow, yes, I did say obviously lower than the first quarter, which was very, very strong with $2.4 billion. We do see a positive figure here for the second quarter. Yes, there are payments on the tariff side already, and that is impacting the free cash flow. That is included here.
Christina, when you say tariff impact Mercedes cars, less than 300 basis points, how should we read that? It's more than 200 or it's rather than still close to 300 basis points? Can you narrow this range maybe a little bit? Or it can be also just 100 basis points. How should we interpret your statement?
Yes, I would love to give you that transparency. Let's close the quarter first. It is, I wouldn't say below 300 basis points if I wasn't sure it was below 300.
If it was below 200, you would have said below 200 basis points, correct?
Depends. Yeah, I don't know yet where it is. I need to somehow draw a line with this response. I get your question.
The answer is still there's a big range of uncertainty also for you, correct?
Yeah, because we, I mean, it's the 30th of June, right? Let's close the books. Let's see the final result, and then we can give you more granularity in terms of the impact. It is, I mean, it's a good question in the sense that it is the quarter is impacted by the tariff payments, and we can see a run rate materializing.
Yeah. Okay. Thank you.
You're very welcome. Good. Let's move on to you, José. Over to you. Can you hear me?
Thank you very much. Just one question related to free cash flow. If you could please repeat again the comments that you've done on working capital, please. And then also on CapEx, any meaningful CapEx reductions sequentially second quarter versus the first quarter. Thank you. Thank you, Christina.
Yeah, you're very welcome. I did not make any comment specifically on working capital. I made a comment with regards to the impact of tariffs. I can happily repeat. We said that we did communicate already that the free cash flow of the industrial business, including the impact on tariffs as just elaborated on, would result in a free cash flow in Q2 that is, first of all, meaningfully positive, but, second of all, significantly lower than in the first quarter.
More color on that, obviously with the disclosure.
Is there an official definition of meaningfully?
Not that I know.
Thank you.
No hidden messages here. Yeah.
All good. All good. Thank you.
All right, José. Steven, I will move on to you for the next question.
Yes, good afternoon. Thank you, Christina, for doing this call. Two questions, please. First of all, you said about the reception to the CLA has been encouraging. Could you remind us which markets you have actually launched the vehicle in already? Maybe provide any more color on what encouraging really means. Secondly, in the United States, have you put any price increases through? Obviously, you are not putting any tariff-related prices through because you have always been quite careful about that. Have you put the normal price increases you would normally do on an annual basis, inflation kind of thing? Thank you.
Very welcome. Yes, on the CLA. Obviously we launched it in Europe, in Germany first and foremost, of course. We do see quite encouraging numbers here. Cannot share any details yet. When we compare with the predecessor models, it looks super encouraging. Also, what we see in some of the remaining EU markets, U.K., Spain, Benelux, the Nordics, Poland. This is starting to gain traction there. It is important to note that we do not have demo cars in all of the markets yet in the dealerships. It is difficult to give a clear or to do a clear comparison here. What we see internally in terms of orders coming in, it is quite encouraging. We do look at it very positively.
In terms of your second question on price increases in the U.S., no, we have not included any commercial measures or implemented any commercial measures as yet. It is a bit difficult, of course, because you have to look at it segment by segment, vehicle by vehicle, and also look at what competition is doing. I think there is some activity that we can observe, but when it comes to our direct competitors, maybe not too much. We have not really factored that in. That was my comment also to Tim earlier in terms of when we will be able to guide again or what does the process look like. I think we need a bit more visibility on the commercial side to be able to do that.
Thank you.
Welcome, Steven. Over to you, Philippe. Philippe, can you hear us? Okay, Philippe. We cannot hear you yet. I will try with Henning first and then see if we can get you, Philippe. Henning, can you hear us?
Yeah. Hi, Christina. Good afternoon, everybody. I just had a question for the group level with respect to the reconciliation line. I think it was uncharacteristically weak in the first quarter, driving some of the mixed results. I was just wondering if you had a comment there if that should be more normalized again or what to expect there. Thank you.
No, I don't have that with me right now, but we would give you obviously more color when we go through the figures at disclosure date. Bear with us and we'll share more details and then it should be easier to compare.
Okay. Thank you.
Welcome. I will try again with Philippe. Cannot hear it. Okay. I'm moving over to Mike Tindall. Mike.
Christina, hello. Hope you can hear me.
Hi, Mike.
You can hear me. Just wondering what you've said in meetings or anywhere else about share buyback.
Yeah. Very good question.
What the plan is.
Yes. Good question, Mike. Thanks. Definitely we'll give you some details, obviously, with a full disclosure, but what we said before, so happy to repeat, is that, of course, we announced the next round of share buybacks. We also said that we will stand by our capital allocation framework, so that remains in place. The only reason why we have not started that yet was because we needed more visibility then on the impact of tariffs on the full free cash flow for the full year. We are gaining a bit more insights. Once we have that, you will get some news. For now, I cannot share any additional information, but the fact that we remain committed.
Got it. Thank you.
All right, Philippe. I'll try again. No, Philippe cannot hear us. We have another question from, sorry, Oswald Harald. Over to you.
Hi. Can you hear me okay?
Yes, we can. Thanks.
Just a clarification on, I understand the Mercedes cars guidance very well and the color on tariffs, obviously very helpful. Is there any color you can give us? You said 300 basis points for the full year, which basically over three quarters basically gets you about 400 basis points per quarter. Now you're saying less than 300 for certain and potentially down to 200, let's say. What is the gap? Is the gap just the inventory in the second quarter or are there other mitigating effects that were better than expected, such as the offset on parts? What specifically drove the improvement relative to what you told us three months ago, please?
Yes, absolutely. I mean, certain things were already included in the 300 basis points, like the pre-stocking, so that would include the inventory. Of course, there were announcements just before the Q1 release that we did in April and a little bit after, one being the de-escalation, if you can call it that way, between U.S. and China, and the other one being the offset on imported parts. Both of these were not included in the 300 basis points. This plays a role in now the impact coming down below 300 basis points in the second quarter. Of course, April only being basically ramping up in terms of the tariff effect. These three things would make it lower than 300 basis points for Q2.
Perfect. Thanks. For the full year, logically, would mean that the full year effects then also would be lower than 300 basis points if we include these two effects, right?
Yes, we will. Obviously, that's a mathematical deduction. When we get to the disclosure, we will share more detail on that, how exactly that's going to look like. We obviously need to run the numbers. When we have the disclosure at the end of the month, we will give you a better view and transparency as you have seen from us in the first quarter.
Perfect. Thank you.
All right. I think you did not hear my comment. I will close the call with that. Apologize for the technical issues just at the beginning of the call and for any inconvenience that caused. Thank you very much for your valid questions, and we will talk very soon. Thank you and goodbye.