Welcome to the global conference call of Mercedes-Benz. At our customers' request, this conference call will be recorded. The replay of the conference call will also be available as an on-demand audio webcast in the investor relations section of the Mercedes-Benz website. The short introduction will be directly followed by a Q&A session. If you have difficulties during this conference, please press zero and pound on your telephone keypad for operator assistance. If you want to ask a question after the presentation, please press nine star on your telephone keypad. To remove the question, please press again nine star on your telephone keypad. Please note that dialing nine star a second time during the call will automatically withdraw your question. Please refrain from pressing the key combination multiple times during this call.
I would like to remind you that this telephone conference is governed by the safe harbor wording that you find in our published results documents. Please note that our presentations contain forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views with respect to future events. Such statements are subject to many risks and uncertainties. If the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect, then actual results may be materially different from those expressed or implied by such statements. Forward-looking statements speak only to the date on which they are made. May I now hand over to Steffen Hoffmann, Head of Mercedes-Benz Investor Relations and Treasury. Thank you very much.
Yeah, good morning, ladies and gentlemen, this is Steffen Hoffmann speaking. On behalf of Mercedes-Benz, I'd like to welcome you on the telephone and the internet to our Q3 results conference call. I'm very happy to have with me today Harald Wilhelm, our CFO. To give you maximum time for your questions, as always, Harald will begin with an introduction, directly followed by a Q&A session. The respective presentation can be found on the Mercedes-Benz IR website. Now, I'd like to hand over to Harald.
Hi, everybody, and thanks, Steffen. Let's jump right into it. Quarter three, I would say we once again delivered, I mean, solid financial results, despite a subdued market environment, despite intensified competition, especially on the EV side, despite high inflation with unprecedented spikes. All in all, according to our weather chart, this would rather call for a rainy macro scenario. Looking at our results, I would say they look rather fair, between fair and sunny, let's say. In other words, I mean, Q3 underscores the resilience in a subdued market environment. Let's first look at the numbers on page three. On the group level, stable revenues, group EBIT at EUR 4.8, solid cash flow at EUR 2.3, and a strong NIL of EUR 28. What are the highlights on car side? Page four.
In terms of the performance, I would like to highlight, I mean, the Maybach sales, up 26% in the quarter, the G-Class up 11% in the quarter. On the other side, the GLC and E-Class, I would say this is pretty much the theme of the day, have been constrained by the 48-volt, I mean, supply. On the profitability, we see solid results, in particular, supported by improved, I mean, net pricing. On the products, I mean, we had the highlights during the IAA, the auto show. We presented, I mean, the Concept CLA. We also presented this year, I mean, in the quarter, the AMG GT and all new E-Class Estate and All-Terrain, as well as facelift of EQA and EQB.
We also started, I mean, the sales of the new E-Class in Europe and got excellent market feedback on the product. On the technology side, you can see with the Concept CLA that this with a range of 750 km, you know, that really manifests some segment-leading efficiency, with around 12 kWh per 100 km and with an 800-volt system charging up to 400 km in 15 minutes. Also, lots of interesting stuff on the customer, I mean, experiencing side in terms of over-the-air updates on MBUX to more than 700,000 vehicles. Jumping to page 5, in terms of more details on the sales side, Q3 sales at Cars, 511,000 units.
So year to date, that's 2% up, and therefore, I mean, fully in line with the full year guidance. In essence, I would really like to say we lost around 5% volume in the quarter, and if I look at the full year, probably we, we could do -- we could have done 5% volume more overall on sales. However, due to the 48-volt, we are constrained on the GLC and the E-Class. Year-on-year sales in the quarter lower, mainly in China, but the quarter-over-quarter is a positive trend. If you look on the segments on the entry side, you see our strategy, prioritization, prioritizing value over volume at work in a very competitive market environment. The core, I mean, is flat.
That is mainly a result of the supply chain bottleneck on the 48-volt. The trend clearly we're defending, I mean, in leadership position in all markets combined, I mean, is a healthy margin and very disciplined pricing. Top-end year to date is up 6%, and we do expect it to grow on a full year basis over last year, consistent with our story. Let me give you a few more data points on the top end in the Q3. On the AMG. You see a bit of a lower number, but that is mainly due to model changes like the AMG E-Class, GLC, GLC Coupe, and some positions, I mean, on the AMG.
So these models will come in Q4, and then in 2024. On the S-Class, the S-Class clearly continues to lead in the segment everywhere in the world. In the S-Class, you see a bit lower due to temporarily smaller certification topics, in particular in the US, usual seasonality and a bit of macro. In China, the S-Class holds more than 50% of the market share, and are up there in China by 9% year-over-year in the quarter. And also in the US, if you don't look at the group sales, but rather at the retail sales numbers, you see that it's 48% up in the Q3. I hope this explains that what you see in quarter three is of temporary nature.
Looking on the electric side of things, the transformation into the EV world, I mean, continues. We can see the xEV share now at 20%. On the BEV side, in the quarter is up 66%. And if you look more specifically to the EQS SUV sales, I mean, they more than doubled in the quarter. In total, in the quarter, we had EQE and EQS sedans and SUVs of around 24,000 units. I think that's a good number for a brand-new platform. In the US, the BEVs are growing nicely, with the year-to-date EQS registrations ahead of the relevant top-end competitors. And in China, we were ranked number one in terms of customer experience satisfaction in the survey of NPS by the Chinese arm of JD Power.
Looking at the financials, page six, revenues are -4%, in line with the sales. Year to date, and the revenues are, I mean, up by 3%. ASP is almost flat year-over-year, and slightly up quarter-over-quarter. EBIT adjusted at EUR 3.4 billion, and the BIT at EUR 2.2 billion. Let's have a look at page seven on the EBIT evolution, coming from EUR 4.1 billion in last year's quarter. The bucket volume, structure, net pricing, net looks small, but what happened behind is a much bigger thing. The arrows on the chart are roughly proportional to real numbers. So what does it mean? Year-on-year, net pricing further improved. Net pricing was on similar level as the Q2 2023, and overall at a very healthy level.
Pricing almost outweighs the slightly lower volume and the Q3 lighter mix effect. Volume and mix, I explained already before, some on the AMG and the S-Class effect, and the non-availability of the 48-volt was on GLCs. Used car business was slightly negative year-on-year, coming from a very high level as we guided before. FX, very briefly, EUR 330 negative, chiefly from the Turkish lira, which is compensated in pricing and the remain as a translation effect from the renminbi. Industrial performance, EUR -400. I mean, here we have now tailwinds from lower raw material prices, but they are outweighed by disproportionate inflation charges and supply chain-related costs compared to previous quarters. This is the main reason for lower profitability in the Q3 compared to H1. And I would like to explain what does disproportionate mean.
That means that the charges in the quarter three relate to the first nine months of the year, so to the year-to-date time frame and performance. Selling expenses slightly are slightly better due to lower marketing expenses, G&A slightly positive, and in the others, I mean, we have on the upside the proceeds from the sale of our operations in Indonesia, and on the other side the positive impact we had last year on the interest rates, which we don't have anymore. So that leaves us with the EBIT at 3.4. Return on sales adjusted to 12.4%. On the walk page 8, from EBIT to cash, what can we see? Cash conversion rate, I mean, of 0.7. Working capital is negative, around 500.
Heavier finished vehicles sitting in the inventory, which I think that underpins, I mean, the softer Q3 top-end sales mix, and therefore, I mean, that should improve in the Q4. So the vehicles are there. I think that explains the mix in quarter three is temporary. What else? We, on the other side, we had a bit of favorable trade payables, which is offsetting the inventory effect in the Q3. Net financial investments refer to the sale of the operations in Indonesia. The net investments in PPE and intangible assets, compared to depreciation, are stepping up in line with the guidance, and that refers obviously to the investments in our electrical architectures and future technologies.
On the other bucket, I mean, you see basically the Daimler Truck at equity result and no divi in the Q3. On the adjustments, these refer to the legal proceedings and M&A. Page nine, on the vans. On the sales side, in terms of the performance, at the same level. However, on the profitability side, I would say, I mean, a very strong set of results with solid net pricing, good product mix, balancing supply chain related costs. On the product side, we had a preview of a new lineup on the EQV, V-Class, and V-Class Marco Polo, with more luxurious character, and on the EVito and Vito, a sharpened premium character.
Looking at the sales of the vans, page 10, as I said, flat, in particular, strong in the NAFTA region, and here, the EV sales also mean we see a EUR 1 billion, mainly, just see a bit on the van side. The adjusted cash conversion rate at 1.4. Working capital, I mean, slightly positive with EUR 130 million. Lower finished vehicle inventories, favorable trade payables and receivables. Higher investments, as guided, in PPE and intangible, that refers to the ramp up of our investment into the VAN.EA platform. And in the other buckets, you have several small effects which are adding up to EUR 160 million.
On mobility, key messages, market environment is challenging, remains challenging, in particular, increased competition in China. The overall penetration rates, I mean, are under pressure with a positive trend, however, on the EV side, in particular in the U.S., thanks to the IRA. On the performance side, we see the impact of, in the, in many margins, from higher refinancing rates and intensified competition. In addition, we also see the cost of credit risk, I mean, stepping up by weakening macroeconomic environment. At the same time, we also ramped up, I mean, our charging activities, and you might have seen that we opened, I mean, the first site on the sixteenth of October, and more will come in Germany and the U.S., in a couple of weeks. Page 15, key numbers.
I think I mentioned already, new business increased in the Q3. Portfolio remains stable, EBIT adjusted, decreased. Why? Let's have a look on the page 16. So, how did we get there to EUR 360 million and 10% return on equity adjusted? A bit of negative FX, negative cost of credit risk, driven by more challenging macro environment. And then, the big one is the lower interest margin, which is impacted by the higher refinancing cost, and a higher level of, competition. On top of that, we see investments for the charging unit in the Q3. And, I would say then a bit of favorable impact from our portfolio on mobility services. Page 17.
What does it mean on the group side? The business side, I explained. That leaves the recon, the reconciliation item, positive with the Daimler Truck at-equity result. And that gives us an EBIT adjusted of EUR 4.9 billion, reported, EUR 4.8 billion. In between, you have the adjustments for legal proceedings. On the cash flow bridge, same thing. Business side, I mean, I explained income taxes are roughly -EUR 1.1 billion. Cash taxes are going up, year-over-year, also due to lower offsettable, tax loss carry forwards. We've a significantly improved interest result, due to the higher interest rate levels. And other than that, the recon item includes mainly function, central function-related, topics.
The free cash flow, therefore, in the industrial side of the business is at EUR 3.2 billion. I think with this number, year to date, EUR 7.9 billion, which is from memory, I think, almost the level of full year 2022. On the NIL, page 19, EUR 28.5 billion at the end of the quarter. We're starting from EUR 26 billion at the beginning of the quarter. Solid cash flow, as commented before. We bought back shares in line with our share buyback program of EUR 0.5 billion. As we speak, or, I mean, as of today, we bought all in all, roughly EUR 1.3 billion....
back, that means we are well on track for the EUR 4 billion program, which runs within the up to 2 years. So I think in terms of timing, we are front-loaded. On the other side, FX and also dividend payment from MBM. Now let's turn to the outlook. First, on the division side, the division guidance, I really would like to invite you to read the assumption charts, I mean, carefully. In the interest of time, however, I jump over it and go to the cars division guidance. First, on the sales side, we expect the pace from the first three quarters of 2023 to continue for the remainder of the year. As the 48-volt supply constraints on GLC and E-Class continue, we expect, I mean, Q4 sales at the same level as Q3 level.
Without this supply issue, we would have expected a higher quarter four and a full year of approximately 5% higher. Quarter four expected top-end share is expected to be higher than quarter three. And with that all together, we continue to see the full year sales level 2023 at prior year level. Looking on the return on sales guidance for cars. For return on sales adjusted cars, we confirm the 12%-14% full year range. At the Q2 disclosure, we said that we see ourselves at the upper half of this corridor. What happened since then? The BEV pricing competition has intensified. We have defined our red lines here, but cannot stay out of it completely. The GLC ramp-up continues to be limited due to the 48-volt supply issues.
The GLC is a hot car, an important volume and margin contributor, and we would love to be able to hand over more of these fascinating cars to our customers. Also, the 48-volt supply issue now limits the ramp-up of the new E-Class, the 214. The new E-Class is a great car with fantastic product substance, enjoying great initial customer feedback. We just can't ramp up as planned at the moment. Last, but not least, we see inflation-related supplier costs sitting at a higher level than at the beginning of the year and at H1 level. Despite all of these headwinds, we confirm our full year guidance of 12%-14% return on sales adjusted, but now see ourselves at the lower half of this range. The remainder cash conversion rate, PPE, as well as R&D, remains unchanged.
On the van side, the sales guidance is confirmed. The margin guidance, with a strong margin year to date, we see the van adjusted return on sales, I mean, at the upper end of the 13%-15% guidance range. We continue to see good sales performance, but some higher ramp-up project-related expenses by the end of the quarter for the VAN.EA. The adjusted CCR is also confirmed at 0.7-0.9. Investment PPE, R&D is unchanged. On the mobility side, we're coming from a 12.9% year to date. We see the quarter four at a similar level than Q3. The effects of the deteriorating interest rate margin is likely to see a low point in the Q4. Furthermore, we continue to see OpEx for our branded high-power charging network.
In the full year, we confirm our guidance, however, at the lower end of the range, of 12%-14%. Without the increased OpEx for, for charging, probably we would expect the full year, rather at the mid of the range. On the group guidance, page 22, based on the Q3 results and our outlook as provided before on the segments, we confirm all KPIs as before. And with this, let me turn to the last page of the presentation, 23. We are not only defending our leadership position, I mean, on the top-end segment. I think I made it clear that, what you saw in the, in the Q3 should be temporary in nature. And if I allow me, to have a, a look into the product momentum for 2024.
We see great stuff coming up. What is it I'm talking about? Definitely, we'll see the world premiere of the electric G-Class. We see the start of the AMG GT sales. Real cool car, the AMG E 53 Hybrid, the CLE 53, 63. So tons of great stuff to fuel momentum in the top end. And with this, I think we're happy to take your questions now.
Absolutely. Thank you very much, Harald. So, ladies and gentlemen, you may ask your questions now. As always, I'll identify the questioner by name. However, please also introduce yourself with your name and the name of the organization before asking your question. Please ask your questions in English, and as a matter of fairness, please try to limit the number of questions to a maximum of two. Now, before we start, the operator will again explain the procedure.
Thank you very much. If you want to ask a question, please press nine and the star key on your telephone keypad. To remove the question, please press nine star on your telephone keypad again.
... Please note that dialing nine star a second time during the call will automatically withdraw your question. Please refrain from pressing the key combination multiple times during the call. Again, for a question, please press nine star on your telephone keypad. If you have difficulties of raising a question, please try another conference call telephone number indicated in the invitation you received, or press zero rhombus on your telephone keypad for operator assistance. And we start the Q&A with George Galliers from Goldman Sachs.
Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. Obviously, you've seen some disruption in Q3 from the 48-volt, and also, I believe you still face high supplier compensation requests. Maybe just thinking a bit further forward to 2024, do you think that this provides you with some volume catch-up opportunity on the vehicles that have been constrained by the 48-volt? In addition, when we think about supplier compensation in 2024 in absolute terms, would your base case be that this should be substantially lower than it has been in 2023? Thank you.
Thank you, George. Definitely, we do expect, and not only expect, I mean, we work hard, I mean, on the 48-volt topic, I mean, with the supplier, to cure the problem. And therefore, and allow ramp up of, GLC and the E-Class, in 2024. I think I would not give our numbers for 2024 in this respect, but the supportive view that that should generate, I mean, positive momentum, with the GLC being hot car, E-Class being hot car, both of them, having healthy margins. I think that therefore definitely that should support, I mean, 2024, not only in terms of sales, but also in terms of margin evolution.
On the supply chain, inflation related, I mean, costs step up, we are facing this quarter and also in quarter four. Definitely, I have the expectation that they will come down over time. But we would wish to be cautious maybe at this juncture, how and when exactly that is going to happen. Clearly, we do expect each and everybody, including the supply chain, to do their job, fight inflation, fight cost increases, as we are doing. Just to give an example, I mean, our fixed cost trajectory, the journey we laid out in 2020, we didn't change it due to inflation. We kept the target, which just means it's harder.
So we expect the same thing from the supply chain, and therefore we'll take a hard look at that. But again, when it's going to come down, let's see a bit when we enter 2024.
Thank you, George. We continue with Patrick Hummel from UBS.
Hi, good morning, Harald and Steffen. Two questions also from my side. You mentioned at the very beginning that it's getting a bit rainy outside, and that would suggest that you would lean towards a 10%-12% margin rather than the 12%-14%. Now, for the time being, you've done quite well, but if we take a look into already 2024 beyond Q4, there are these headlines about high inventory days in the U.S., discounts in Europe, et cetera, difficult EV situation in the market overall. You called out the pricing pressure and the red lines you defined. You mentioned more cost-cutting that you are working on or intensifying your efforts to reach your absolute targets.
What does this all mean for 2024 qualitatively? Would you say we should be prepared for, you know, the rainy margin corridor? Or are you still confident to stay in that 12%-14% range going into next year? And my second question, simply against that backdrop, what does this all mean for your cash return and capital allocation? You were on stage in Munich at IAA, starting basically a debate on stage, what kind of net cash level is appropriate for this company, and you clearly left us under the impression that you're sitting on too much net cash, and there's flexibility. So how do you think about this against the backdrop of a more rainy weather situation outside? Thank you.
Yeah. Thanks, Patrick. Actually, it did rain this morning in Stuttgart.
Here as well.
I see a bit of blue, blue sky coming up, but maybe too early. No, well, I think this is Q3 earnings call, so I think giving guidance on 2024 at this juncture is a bit difficult. I mean, so... But I'd like to give a few elements, I would say. Definitely, I think the EV space is an extremely competitive space. I think I said before, we defined our red lines. But overall, as you can see with the Q3 results, particularly on the pricing side, I mean, we could materialize a strategy in terms of value over volume and protect, I mean, the margin overall of the portfolio.
As we have the tactical flexibility to adjust in terms of, I mean, the EV ramp, the demand from customers, we can bring, I think, the whole product portfolio, the very competitive portfolio. I mentioned the GLC before, I mean, the E-Class, the AMGs to come next year at work. I would expect, I mean, they have a favorable impact in terms of, I mean, the mix for 2024. In terms of, I mean, the overall, I mean, demand side of things, I commented in the half year in terms of the volume, i.e., 2024, I mean, not to be below 2023. As we speak today, I still have the same view for 2024 when it comes, I mean, to the volume side of things.
And, supply chain-related costs, we already talked about, I mean, before. So rest assured, I mean, our ambition sits also for the future, and where it sits for 2023. But now probably my colleagues will stop me from talking before I start to give further guidance on 2024. On the net cash, well, I know you all want to have the EUR 28 billion back now. No, we're not doing that. My point is, I think we have a lot of flexibility. I don't change, I mean, I don't see a fundamental change in the cash generation, despite a more subdued macro environment and a more rainy scenario, I mean, out there.
As you can see, we're progressing with the SBB program well ahead of timing, the proportional timing, and we'll continue to think in terms of what does that mean for capital allocation moving forward, but we still have a bit of time until we complete the program.
Thank you, Patrick, and we go to Frankfurt, to Tim Rokossa from Deutsche Bank.
Thank you, Steffen, Harald. It's Tim from Deutsche Bank. I was also going to ask you about the weather obviously, but Patrick has already done this, so let's try to approach it in a different way, because obviously it's the key question today to investors. You specifically are known for someone that has things very well under control. You have a very tight grip on the numbers with Mercedes. That's a reputation that you already had at Amazon. Now, you certainly have it in Mercedes. Now, can you help us understand how much of what was going on in Q3 and will now go on in Q4 is somewhat of a short-term glitch, where we really talk about the GLC issues that are out of your control with, with your supplier and then the supplier compensation payments?
Or is there just so many issues falling on Mercedes right now, or the overall industry, actually, that it's just getting a lot more difficult to control, and that we should prepare for an environment where at least there's more volatility on the margin, even if you don't want to point us now towards the 10-12 or 8-10% in a rainy environment. And secondly, how should we think about the discounts in Germany and the stories that we've seen over the last few days in the press? You obviously introduced the agency model here. The point of that is better pricing control. Now we hear a lot about discounts for also brand-new vehicles. Have you overdone it on the ASP side, at least in the market in Germany, or what was really going on there? Perhaps you can contextualize this. Thank you.
Yeah, thanks, Tim. I would say let's get the elephant out of the room. So what happened in the Q3, I commented before, that, I mean, the step up in supply chain-related cost, in particular, I mean, inflation-related cost, is the main reason for the margin evolution in the Q3 compared to the H1. And we do expect this to be also at elevated level, maybe even higher level, I mean, in the Q4. And that is, I mean, the main reason why you see the comment on the full year guidance, now at the lower half of the range of the 12-14.
Which obviously you guys calculated immediately in terms of what does it mean for the Q4 margin, which mechanically, therefore, would sit below 12%. But let me be extremely clear. When I commented before on the disproportionate element in the, in the quarter three of the higher level supply chain-related costs, it refers to the nine months. And when I say in the Q4, we do expect, I mean, even higher charge on this topic, it refers to the full year, not to the Q4. What's my message, therefore, you shouldn't look in terms of the run rate on the quarter, but you really need to look on the run rate on the full year, and that is for 2023, the 12%-14%.
To your second question, yes, EV is a very competitive space. I mean, come on, with price discounts or some of the other guys, more than 30%, some of the traditional players selling BEV vehicles below the pricing level of ICE, with variable costs probably sitting above, as you know. I would say this is a pretty brutal space. In this context, I think you could see that we had been doing... Again, look at the Q3, I mean, pretty well. And overall kept the discipline on the pricing, as you can see in the Q3 print on the chart, on the chart.
Within the portfolio, I mean, you have vehicles, hot cars, which do not afford or which do not require, apologies, which do not require, I mean, any particular measures. You have other portfolio positions, which require a bit more measures. And I think this article you're referring to, I think that refers, I mean, probably to some short-term year-end stock measures. I'm a bit speculating here, as I didn't write the article, but you should not conclude, I think from this one on the overall pricing strategy, which has been demonstrated as firm and robust in the Q3. However, I repeat, on the EV side of things, this is extremely competitive in these days.
Thank you, Tim. And we go to London, to José Asumendi from JP Morgan.
Thank you very much. Morning, Harald. José from JP Morgan. Two questions, please. First one, on the auto bridge, can you go back a little bit to this volume structure, pricing, category, to maybe break down or provide a few more details behind that pocket? And second, can you talk a little bit about your Chinese auto business? Can you provide a bit more details behind volume, mix, and maybe the ramp up of the facility in Shenyang? Thank you.
Good morning, José. Is your question volume structure mix referring to quarter three, quarter four, or 2024, 2024, 2025?
Q3. Q3, yes.
Well, in the bridge, I think you can see volume is now year-over-year slightly negative. Mix is negative for the reasons mentioned before, on AMG and S-Class, chiefly certification, temporary margin impact, whereas the pricing is nicely favorable. And then, within the industrial performance, the raw materials now started to be positive. So we're enjoying the tailwind we were counting on for a while, but then offset by this higher level supplier supply chain-related costs I addressed already before. So there, I think this, in essence, I mean, are the mechanics of the quarter three bridge.
Maybe I repeat myself, but the supply-chain-related topics and the non-availability of 48-volt on the GLC and the E-Class are the main reasons why you see the quarter three at 12.4 rather than 13.5 of the H1. In terms of how should that move and may develop further, I tried, I think, to comment before. So, we should see a mix favorable. We should see pricing stable in the Q4. We should see the supply chain-related cost picking up, as well as some seasonal cost effect in the last quarter.
I mean, as we see that basically each and every year, and a bit of the minor things, you know, like, the capital gain from the sale of our Indonesia operations. And if you do the math, you're getting, I think, to the numbers I explained before, within the 12-14, but at the lower end of the range. So I would say under control. On China, in terms of the China momentum, year-over-year, I mean, we are, we are down in China, but I would caution maybe to take the Q3, 2022 as a reference. I mean, remember, Q2, 2022 was heavily impacted by the lockdown. Quarter three came up, I mean, pretty, pretty sharply than in China.
If you compare the evolution in China more quarter-over-quarter, which may be in this respect more relevant, i.e., quarter 3 over quarter 2, 2023, we see momentum picking up, so positive trend. We see the demand on the top end very strong, commented on Maybach and G-Class, and I think that refers to China as well. The macro a bit, I would not hide that, if I may say. The overall, I think, macro situation and the consumer sentiment in China did not come back completely after coming out of the COVID lockdowns since the beginning of the year.
That's probably still, I mean, a sentiment which is hanging out there on the market overall, where also the top-end segment is not completely immune. But in the longer term, we do expect or we see the potentials, obviously, in China. And that's why we're holding the position in the top end of more than 50% with the S-Class being the undisputed leader.
Very helpful. Thank you.
Thank you, José. We continue with Horst Schneider from Bank of America.
Yeah, good morning. Hope you can hear me. I want to ask another follow-up question on Q4. I hear you, Harald, regarding the bridge. Mathematically, your guidance implies now for Q4, a margin of 7%-11%, which is, of course, a pretty wide range. When I hear you talking about the bridge items, hard for me to imagine that it should be at the lower end of this range. So maybe could you narrow a little bit the outlook for Q4, if you think about 7% or 11%? And then again, regarding the reasons, where I get the sense that it's mainly related to supplier costs. Could it be that this is an industry problem?
Because basically, the whole industry has got a BEV problem, and therefore the sale producers, they are charging basically compensations, which would imply also for you that potentially the supplier cost issue is an issue also for 2024. Would you agree or disagree to that? Thank you.
Thank you, Horst. Well, I think we can clarify the understanding of the guidance ranges. So when we say 12-14, and 11.5 would not qualify for the guidance range. So by my maths, the very low of the range we're guiding here today, i.e., the 12-14, in the lower half of it, means a Q4 which doesn't fall, I mean, in essence, or which doesn't go single digit, but we call it this way, yeah. So, and I think that's what we're talking about when you compare to quarter three performance, so around, I mean, 200-300 basis points, yeah.
And that is, I mean, fully explained by this supply chain related to the cost and seasonal cost phasing. I think I gave the elements already, I mean, a few times, I mean, before. Looking forward, I mean, the supply chain related cost, I mean, obviously, I mean, cover everything in terms of the relationship, the whole portfolio, some inflation related. Obviously, also, I mean, the question then, in terms of what is, I mean, the offtake on given programs. However, I mean, I'm not commenting on individual supply relationships, nor on individual programs and, I mean, any charges, I mean, which might occur from there.
Over time, I think, I mean, therefore, as said before, the supply chain related cost, I mean, should come down. Again, the timing of it, I would remain cautious maybe at this juncture. And I think it's a kind of a law in supply chain management that you get your yearly productivity. And I want to see the yearly productivity back.
As said before, I mean, inflation, yes, it spiked, energy costs spiked, but, I mean, we are beyond the worst. And, I mean, therefore, the spikes in the bill of material, when it is within the suppliers, should relax, I mean, over time, and that's what we want to see then coming through as well. So, no detailed comment in terms of the tailwind for 2024 here, I would say. But in the longer term, definitely we should try to recover some of the stuff we lost here.
That's great. And last question that I have maybe on order books. The order trend, is that getting negative, or order stable?
Order book and order intake is going the right direction. And as I said, I mean, GLC e-cars are hot cars. Obviously, given the constraints we have, we still have, we probably don't see the full momentum yet in the order intake either. As I mean, too many models are unfortunately constrained here. So once we're getting out of that, I think we'll also see then order intake momentum stepping up. Overall, I think I commented before that for 2024 sales, I see from today's point of view, no reason why 2024 should be below 2023.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Thank you, Horst. We continue with Stephen Reitman from Société Générale.
Yes. Good morning. I have two questions. First of all, if you could comment on what you've been seeing in Germany with order intake on BEVs, after the change in the tax treatments for company cars from the beginning of September, and what are your thoughts about how much the sort of, like, incentives or government bonuses are impacting this market? And secondly, also, if you could comment as well on the agency model. You made some comments already, but I was just wondering if you could maybe talk a little bit about how you've seen pricing, you know, how you've seen price realizations and the degree of satisfaction you're registering with dealers and with your customers. Thank you.
Thanks, Steven. Well, I mean, on the change in legislation end of September, I mean, we are a few days after end of September. I think, I mean, it's a bit early, too early, I mean, to judge on from there. Definitely, I think we can say is that the tax treatment of xEV vehicles is an important element, in particular, when it comes, I mean, to fleet customers, to corporate fleets. And therefore, I mean, we need to watch that item. But too early, I would say, at this juncture to speculate about it.
With regard to the agency model, now, when we have it in place, in quite a lot of markets, I mean, already. As you know, Germany moved latest, in summer, in June. U.K. going in the year. I think all in all, wherever we look at, in terms of, I mean, what's the economic impact, I mean, of the model? I think we can clearly say it's favorable. So to the pricing, to the net pricing, and definitely supported within the margin bridge we were talking earlier before, to the Q3 also the quarter three pricing performance. It will also help, I think, to consolidate, and therefore, all in all, reduce the spend on the sales and the distribution side.
In terms of, I mean, the working capital, you see, I think that overall, I mean, the amounts are pretty well digestible. The step up in inventory in the Q3 is more a function of the mix and a bit of the volume rather than a function of the agency model, I would say.
Thank you very much.
Thanks, Stephen. We continue with Henning Cosman from Barclays.
Yeah, thank you. Good morning. Thanks, Harald, for sort of drawing the floor, I guess, at 10% margin for the Q4 in the cars. But, I'm still trying to fully understand this, the supplier compensation thing. So, am I right in understanding you said at the Q3 stage it was over proportionate because you compensated for the entire first nine months, and then in Q4 now, you will have even larger over proportionate compensations, because you will be compensating for the entire full year. And this is compensation negotiations, I guess, that haven't been concluded. If you could just confirm that that's the correct understanding, and that you ask us to then still view it on a full year basis, on an overall runway.
So that, I guess, when we then transition into 2024, everything else equal, already from the release on a normalized basis, it should be a little bit better. If you could just confirm that. And the second question was on mobility. I think you mentioned there was or there would be a low point in passing on of higher interest rates in the Q4. Can we take that as an indication that also the absolute EBIT level is around or will be reaching a low point in the Q4, not too dissimilar from the adjusted EBIT level in the Q3? And we can see some sort of normalization up in 2024 in mobility from that level. Thank you very much.
Thanks, Henning. On your first question, I just can say, very smartly analyzed, understood, and commented. So I just can say I do confirm your understanding. On the second question, for the mobility, I would say, I mean, there are two things. Number one, the higher level of refinancing costs, which we try to pass on to customers, obviously, from a customer point of view, constitutes, I mean, higher level bill, which affects, in essence, all markets, yeah. Next to the very competitive behavior of some market participants in China. On top of... And probably that doesn't go away quickly. I mean, what's the saying? Higher for longer.
So I don't want to speculate here in terms of, I mean, when might rates come down, but as long as the rates are where they are, then that just mean that higher level bill is not a given that you can just pass it on. On top of it, I think you have some temporary, I mean, issue in it. What do I mean?
In certain countries, the contracts, or I mean, the vehicle purchase, and the financing, I mean, attached to it, has been done some time ago, call it 18 months ago, and given the supply chain, the semi-related delays, some of these bookings, I mean, are of a vintage of, call it, total of 18 months, and therefore have been concluded at interest rates levels lower than the one we're facing today. So if you deliver the vehicle now, I mean, you're facing refinancing costs, which are sitting at a higher level and therefore weigh on the interest margin. That doesn't apply to all markets, and it applies to some markets, in particular in the European space. So this impact, I mean, somehow should level out, I mean, over time.
And then obviously in the new business, we are trying to step up, I mean, the interest rate margin, and I can say in the acquisition rate, we're seeing today, we see the trend going the right direction, but it will take a while until, I mean, all of the new business comes through before the old one from the portfolio has been released to the P&L. So, yeah, I would say we should see therefore some kind of a bottom line in the Q4, but it will not mean immediate recovery, I mean, the quarter thereafter. So I think we need to be a bit patient, but trying to fight that by efficiency measures, digitalization, all other types of things.
Thank you.
Thanks, Henning. Considering the fact that at nine our time, many of you will have the next OEM call, I think we have time for one more question, which would go to Harald Hendrikse from Citi.
Yeah, morning. Thank you so much for taking my question. I'll, I'll just go one question. Given you say the EV market is brutal, and we understand all of this, I think you've been very, very honest about the development of your own vehicles, and I think we're looking forward to the performance of the CLA in 2024. But does the environment on BEVs make you question the targets that you have, or, or are these set in stone? I mean, the reality is that these cars are probably now less profitable than you would have hoped. The pricing power in this part of the market is clearly more difficult. You know, does it make you change strategy, or, or is there really just no choice in moving towards that 2030 target? Thank you.
Yeah, thanks, Harald. Yeah, as said, I mean, the space today, I think, is very competitive, I mean, you called it brutal. On the other side, we see an adoption rate, customer adoption rate running at a lower level. So, I would say, if the margins on the EVs today are sitting at a lower space than assumed maybe some time ago, I mean, there is an upside potential, I think, from the technical flexibility of the portfolio, namely, I mean, a very competitive and margin-healthy ICE portfolio. I think this is exactly the benefit of one company transitioning from ICE into BEV, rather than being BEV only.
However, we don't take it lightly, as we completely stick to the strategy in terms of full electrification, and we're doing all of the investments for the products. Some of you, I mean, you know, I mean, could see what is going to come here. I think, I mean, these products, call it, I mean, kind of, I mean, the second wave after the first wave of early adopters, I mean, grabbed what you can get in the market with heavy discounting. I think there will be a much broader wave of, I mean, customer than honoring, I mean, the value of the products, I mean, moving forward.
And, I mean, next to the very competitive space, I mean, today, probably the current environment is not a healthy and a sustainable one moving forward. I think we'll see some consolidation. We'll see some normalization. I don't want to sound naive here, but I can hardly imagine that the current status quo, I mean, is fully sustainable for everybody. So we are doing, I mean, what we have to do, which means we play the long game. We invest into the products, we invest into the charging. So we address the customer concerns, which might still be today, range anxiety, charging anxiety.
So we cover all of these, and we therefore completely stick to the strategy, use the technical flexibility, I mean, in between, and retain the overall objectives which we outlined.
Thank you, Harald.
Yeah, and with that, ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for your questions and for being with us today. Also, thank you very much to Harald for answering the questions. As always, IR remains at your disposal for any further questions you might have. Have a great morning, great afternoon, great evening. Thank you very much, and goodbye.