Welcome to the global conference call of Mercedes-Benz. At our customers' request, this conference will be recorded. The replay of the conference call will also be available as an on-demand audio webcast in the Investor Innovation section of the Mercedes-Benz website. The short introduction will be directly followed by a Q&A session. If you have any difficulties during the conference, please press zero and rhombus on your telephone keypad for operator assistance. I would like to remind you that this telephone conference is governed by the safe harbor wording that you find in our published results documents. Please note that our presentations contain forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views with respect to future events. Such statements are subject to many risks and uncertainties. If the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect, actual results may be materially different from those expressed or implied by such statements.
Forward-looking statements speak only to the date on which they are made. May I now hand over to Steffen Hoffmann, Head of Mercedes-Benz Investor Relations and Treasury. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Good morning. Once again, good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Steffen Hoffmann speaking on behalf of Mercedes-Benz. I'd like to welcome everybody here in the room, as well as on the phone and the internet, to our full year results conference call. We are very happy to have with us today Ola Källenius, our CEO, Harald Wilhelm, our CFO. You probably all joined a presentation right before. Just as a quick reminder, the respective capital market presentation with all 22 figures and the 23 outlook can be found on our IR website. Ladies and gentlemen, you may ask your questions now. For the people in the room, please raise your hand to show you would like to ask a question. After being prompted, please use the microphone ahead of you.
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The first question goes to Tim Rokossa from Deutsche Bank.
Yeah. Thank you very much. First of all, great to see the share buyback program from you guys. As you know, we've been discussing about this for a long time already, so this is great to see. I'd have two questions. The first one relates to the mix, and the second one to pricing and volume, and all three obviously are somewhat interlinked. TVs are expected to outperform unit sales once again. Ola, you already said that CMIs are still a bit of a constraint, but it's easing. Do you feel any pressure internally to dilute the mix anytime soon, or can xEVs continue to grow until MMA is being introduced, for example? By the way, I would not consider a baby G-Wagen that we could read about in the press a mix dilution.
My wife's a big fan, the Rokossa household would clearly be a buyer of that. Secondly, when we think about push volume versus positive pricing, it's great to see that you don't have any real aggressive volume assumptions. I think we can see this as a confidence sign that you don't push volume. Obviously a lot of people would challenge you on your positive pricing assumption. How do you ensure pricing remains positive? Is that because you still have this backlog in Europe that you work through, where there is a lot of price increases still included? Is the direct sales model pushing into that, or how do we really get confidence that positive pricing is still a thing also in 2023?
If we start with the first question, thank you, Tim, for that. Yes, we're guiding overall volume around the same level as 2022, but we have an ambition to slightly grow on the Top-End side. I think one thing that shall not be forgotten, if you look at how the progression of this has been over the last two to three years, that within the three segments that we have, Top-End, Core, and Entry, you can have quality growth inside those segments. Indeed, you made reference to the Entry side. Do you know, do we feel pressure? We have been able to improve the quality of the contribution on the Entry side as well. some of the vehicles that we do sell there have very healthy contribution margins. you cannot...
It's not a black or white. You just do the one, and you don't look at the other. You have to manage this whole pyramid, or as we presented, last year when we talked about our luxury strategy, this diamond and look inside of it. With regard to pricing, of course, some of it is action that we have taken last year that then go into a full-year effect. It is indeed, our ambition this year to, in the net between pricing and what we have going on on the raw mat and the commodity side, to keep that in positive territory.I don't comment to speculation on our portfolio. There are so many fans thinking about so many different variants, so you have to stay tuned on that one.
Okay. Next one is Patrick Hummel from UBS.
Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Also two questions from my end. The first is just a follow-up actually to Tim's question about pricing. I would assume there are two very price-sensitive segments that you're still exposed to compact and in Europe also the fleet segment, where you have a mix of, let's say, Entry and Core Luxury cars, where I would assume that it's a fine line to walk between pricing and volume management. I'm wondering, as your volume guidance for the group implies flat and you set top and you want to grow, you're obviously prepared to take a certain hit or a small hit on the volumes at the bottom end of your portfolio, how do you steer your distribution in that regard?
Where are the pain points in terms of losing volumes, where you would say, "Okay, we have to do a bit more on pricing?" What are the incentives? Can you talk a little bit more about the daily art of optimizing, as you called it, just before? My second question relates to China. There we see a very competitive market environment, especially in what is your entry and core segment. We've seen a lot of price action on the EV front, and I'm just wondering what that elevated level of competition in EVs that will probably affect you, at least at the bottom end of your portfolio, what that means for your trajectory towards EV margin parity, if you can just give us an update on that? Thank you.
Just start with the first one. Maybe I'll jump in on the second.
Yeah. A bit of a further deep dive into pricing, but maybe not quantifying each and every lever on the pricing. I think we have been talking quite often about, I mean, what's behind pricing. I mean, it's definitely, it's, I mean, the initial pricing of the vehicle, I mean, which should stay over the life cycle. It is the e-escalation updates year-over-year. It is how we manage the discounts, and now very important, I mean, the lever coming from the direct sales model. We work on all of these. We took, I think, I mean, ambitious approach in terms of the initial pricing for basically, I think all of the variants which came, I mean, into the market and will continue to do so.
I mean, we need to stay realistic as well and watch, I mean, the competitive space and the environment. Second one is on the year-on-year price, I mean, escalation. You know, we reacted, I think, very, very quickly and swiftly back in 2020, 2021, to step up, I mean, beyond the ordinary course in terms of, I mean, the inflation update, the escalation update, and we took measures for 2023 already for this to be, I mean, the case in 2023. Discounts, I mean, you could see it in the chart basically on in the walk, in the EBIT walk, 2021-2022, had a very important impact, I mean, in the price bucket. We got it really, I think, to a nice level.
I mean, here we need to adapt a bit, I would say, to market environment. The switchover of the direct sales model should be a good enabler in terms of managing discounts moving forward. The markets which we turned around so far, I think really proved very beneficial in this respect and went beyond the expectation we had when initially setting out the business case for the switchover of the direct sales model. The entirety of all of these measures allows us to say that the pricing should be positive and even so positive that it can offset the headwinds which we expect, I mean, from raw mats, commodity, supplier, inflation, la, la, la. Will it be as high as 2022, i.e.
the walk from 2022 - 2023? Probably not. should be, I mean, good and solid enough, I mean, to compensate.
If you, if you think about the tools, you asked about the tools. If you're out there in the market, how do you actually drive a market? It's a joint venture between the marketing and sales people and Harald's team on the finance side. It's essentially a focus on contribution margin and also contribution margin per vehicle. To manage the overall contribution, that is KPI number one. If we talk about China, it is absolutely true that over the last few years, the growth of the electric vehicle market in China has been from the bottom. Most of the action has been below 300,000 RMB segments where we almost don't have anything.
It's like the EV market has been below where premium and then upper premium and luxury sits. One has to admit that the competitive intensity in that segment of the market is very, very, very high, which is of course something that we're watching. Whereas the premium and upper luxury is still in very early days. It's almost like it's in its infancy. I think we have to apply some strategic patience here and look at how this grows organically because it doesn't make sense to then, you know, jump into at the upper end and the same dynamics that maybe is happening at the lower end. It's early days. We're watching it, and perhaps we're gonna have to have some strategic patience.
Thank you, Ola. Thank you, Harald. We switch to some of the colleagues on the telephone line. The next gentleman would be José Asumendi from JPMorgan.
José, if you can hear us, this...
Good morning.
Yeah.
It's José from JPMorgan.
Very good. We hear you.
Ola, congratulations on the year. Can you hear me?
Yes, we can hear you.
Perfect. Thank you. Good morning. Just a couple of questions, please. Perfect. There's a bit of delay, so I'll just formulate the both questions. The first question for Harald Wilhelm, please. Can you comment on the gross margin dilution on BEV versus ICE, if there is any within Mercedes-Benz? We are seeing some of the competitors disclosing substantial gross margin dilution between electric vehicles and internal combustion engine. This topic is obviously going to accelerate in the coming quarters as other car companies disclose margins. I would love to understand, please, if there is any margin dilution for you on BEV versus ICE on gross margin, and if there is not any significant dilution, what are you doing better than the others? Is it pricing power?
Is it economies of scale, purchasing battery, et cetera? Second question, please, for Ola. When I look at the margins, very strong performance. However, I would love to understand a bit better this medium-term margin ambition you have for Mercedes-Benz cars. Have margins peaked in 2022? What do you think are the levers to improve the profitability margins to higher levels in the next two, three years? Do you think we could be, at least on our side, underestimating the move from wholesale into retail? Thank you.
José, thank you. On the, on the BEV margin, I would say you've, you know that since quite a while, we take a, I think, I mean, a cautious and a prudent view on it in terms of how do we, how do we judge, I mean, the mid and the long-term outlook, I mean, on the BEV margins. As the significant step-up in variable cost, I mean, from the eDrive train, I mean, particularly, I mean, the battery, today is a fact, and even more so if we look at the raw material prices. To talk about, I mean, cost parity or margin parity, sounds to me a bit too ambitious.
We take, I think, I mean, a more realistic stance in this respect, and that's why when we address all of the other levers, I mean, to compensate, I mean, the margin dilution. Where did we end up, I mean, in 2022? Well, you don't see really traces. I think, I mean, the family which is in the market, EQ family, with the EQS, with the EQS SUV, starting the EQE sedan starting, but also even, I mean, EQE and EQB are doing well in terms of a margin. Now, I mean, we scale significantly, I mean, in 2023. We say approximately double. The vehicles are there.
Structurally, however, they sit below the respective ICE. That's why in the guidance for 2023, said before you have a slight dilution from this BEV step up, which we want to compensate by the Top-End share. Maybe when I say slight, you could see that in the order of magnitude in terms of 0.5% in terms of ROS dilution for 2023. Individual margins, I think it doesn't make a lot of sense now to talk about the individual margins of each and every vehicle as depending on when and how they scale. I mean, this is changing.
The one thing, I would say even the ones where you would expect a pretty poor margin at the lower end, are doing okay. The margins are not that far away from the respective ICE vehicles. I'm referring to EQA and EQB, for example. On the EQS, you know that we took a very ambitious stance in terms of where to position in, and we'll definitely keep the aspiration to improve them in the margin. I would say for 2023, moderate slight dilution and for the other levers, I think that will refers to your second question.
Yeah. Just as a general statement, José, good morning, is the so-called weather chart that Harald presented at the strategy update in May of last year, that stands. There we outlined what our ambition is by the mid of the decade when we have progressed further into transformation. We haven't finished transformation, but we have progressed further into transformation. That ambition under those different weather condition stands, which means we want to manage the transformation in a profitable manner. I don't want to say anything that changes that today, because that is our financial ambition. You asked specifically about the dynamics of going into direct sales. I've had the opportunity to talk to different markets on this here recently.
A few weeks ago, I went to India, whereas it's not a very large market, it is a market in growth and an economy in growth. That was one of the overseas market that we turned into direct sales last year. I had a meeting with the dealer board, and I think the best is actually to get direct feedback from the people that have switched their business model together with us. What do they say?
They were tremendously positive on what they had experienced on this, on this shift. I think there's one effect that we had calculated with, but as you said, Harald, maybe so far it came out a little bit better than we had expected, is if a customer makes a decision that they want to buy a Mercedes, let's say you want to go out and buy an E-Class. At some point in that purchasing decision-making process, the customer has made up his or her mind. Usually what happens is, you either go to the dealer of choice, the one that you know and you trust, and you make the transaction, or you start shopping around. The shopping around in then one market area, maybe you go to a couple or three dealers. Inevitably, you would have a dynamic going on there.
Once you go to direct sales, and it is the manufacturer that sets the price, you move away from selling the price to just selling the product, which, by the way, should be your focus anyway if you have a luxury ambition. Not only does that take anxiety away from the transaction, event, and also gives the customer confidence that when they buy, they're not gonna get a better deal next door, so to speak. That dynamics, generally in the market that we have had turned over so far, has led to a higher customer satisfaction and more price stability. Yes, moving into direct sales is one of those levers to deal with the increase in variable cost driven by EV drivetrains, which is what the margin story is all about on the EV side.
Thanks, Ola. Thanks, Harald. Thanks, José, for your questions. We stay virtually in London and continue with Daniel Roeska from Bernstein.
Thank you. Morning. It's Daniel from Bernstein. Congrats on the strong Q4. Maybe a little bit more on a strategic timeframe on the upstream and downstream around the whole BEV transition. Could you talk about your goals for your upstream supply chain? Where are you seeing sufficient investments from suppliers and governments, and where do you think you may still need to step in beyond what you had planned so far from raw mats, mining, refining, cell manufacturing, kind of where do you perceive the speed to be the slowest right now? Thinking about the downstream, kind of your sales, there have been plenty of studies asking consumers, 20% - 40%, typically in the market are willing to buy an EV, but there are still holdouts. There are 20% - 40% who don't want to buy an EV yet.
In your view, what are the most important issues you need to tackle on? You need to convince kind of those holdouts in the next seven years. Kind of what are you focused on, kind of bringing those last non-EV buyers into the fold? Thanks.
Yeah, Daniel, if we start with the raw material picture, we have kind of mapped in a matrix the whole world and all the relevant raw materials, just to mention the main ones, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and so on. As you are aware, we have already struck some offtake agreements. We have also signed agreements to go all the way to the source into mining with Canada and refining, in this case, in Europe. We're working on other potential options to go into deep sourcing. Prior to that and alongside with that, we're working with every one of our tier ones and looking at the sourcing chain completely, also region for region.
For instance, we announced at the beginning of last year that we will, by the mid of this decade, we will North American or Americanize our supply chain for battery cells in the United States for the mid of the decade. We have sat down with that player and looked at, you know, where are the raw materials gonna come from, where's the refining capacity, and so on. This is a very large matrix where you try to kind of fill field after field from a question mark to an exclamation mark. If you ask me where is the strategic challenge for the overall raw material market of those, I think it is the pace of lithium extraction and refining. It's not the only challenge, but that is maybe the one that has the, has the biggest ramp.
'Cause if you put all the ambitions of all the car companies on top of each other, you look at what the current level of production is, a lot needs to happen between now and the end of the decade and into the next decade. This is a dynamic and moving area, but where we are going beyond what we would traditionally do, rely on the tier ones taking care of the problem. A last comment on that, as you all know, we took a stake in the aspiring European cell champion, ACC. Now we have a tremendous amount of visibility through being a partner in that venture of exactly what's going on in cell manufacturing on all levels, which indeed increases not only our visibility, but also our know-how on how to go after this.
The EV holdouts, we are all realistic about the transition that switching from high-tech combustion to all EV is a, is a project that is gonna go on throughout this decade and next decade. We have an ambition to try to go faster into it and convince the customers at the upper end of the market, and specifically the Mercedes customers, to go in faster. I think many many things are happening and need to happen. On the one side, on the product side, it will get more and more attractive. I briefly alluded to the fact that some of the technologies that we developed for the EQXX research car, I mean, in two or three years, you will already see some of these things in the market. What does that mean?
Better efficiency is better economy for the customer. Better range is then less range anxiety.
Faster ability to charge, and you combine that with the proliferation of the charging infrastructure that we are contributing it in to ourselves as well. Those would add both economic and convenience arguments along the way. I'm not gonna pretend that the full transfer to a full electric future is a walk in the park. It's a very, very big job for any company and for the industry. I can commit to that we, as Mercedes-Benz, are going to invest massively of making that journey for our customers increasingly more attractive. And then we will see when the last holdout jumps. It will be, as far as we are concerned, sometime in the, in the 30s, closer to the beginning than the end.
Thanks. Maybe if I could follow up on your first answer a little. Do you have a sense what the critical path is kind of to get the upstream supply chain into shape, basically? When is it kind of... When is the last critical point when you could step in with investments or do something else, kind of how much time do your suppliers and the supply chain have to demonstrate that they can get to the higher lithium capacity? Is that like 2025, or is it more at 2028, 2029 on the critical path?
I think it's impossible at this stage to pinpoint that exactly. The market is too heterogeneous and not transparent enough to even be able to judge this. Plus, nobody knows exactly, you know, how quick is the adoption rate going to be. There are so many factors that would factor into that. You can't pinpoint it. The only thing you can do in a situation like this is to get going, and start moving. That's what we're doing.
Fair enough. Thanks very much.
Thanks, Ola. Thanks, Daniel. The next gentleman in line is George Galliers from Goldman Sachs.
Good morning, thank you for taking my questions. The first question is on the optionality, Harald, that you have exercised. I'm sure many investors will be very happy to see you initiate a buyback program, together with the dividend, it does amount to a sizable shareholder return. The 40% dividend payout ratio has been a consistent staple of Mercedes's capital allocation framework for many years. Is it fair that investors should now also consider a buyback as an ongoing pillar of your capital allocation framework? The second question I had was just around mobility. You're targeting a 12%-14% return on equity or 13%-15% before the charging costs for this year, which is obviously some way below the 2021/2022 run rate.
You mentioned higher interest rates playing a part which presumably you could try and pass through to your customers, decreasing the affordability of the cars, and therefore potentially increasing the need for incentives, or which the industrial business could suspend to support the customer. The crux of the question really is it fair to say your absolute priority is the pricing on new cars to the customers and the continued success of the Top-End Luxury vehicle sales? If that means that the financial services ROE slips into the targeted 13%-15% range pre-charging from today's levels, you are happy for that evolution. That disciplined and stronger pricing on the new cars is the absolute number one priority. Thank you.
Yeah. Thanks, George. Well, I see you guys. You know, you move from optionality to reality, and you continue to grab. Well, what's the message here? I think, the EUR 4 billion over the two years meant to come, definitely we wanna do that. We said we wanna do that, maximum within 24 months. Let's see, I mean, the speed of execution. We also said, we want to fund that from the cash flow to be generated, after application of the divvy, in 2023 and then in 2024. I think, Ola, as we stand here, we have, I think, any intention to continue doing so, even beyond 2024.
I would say, let's do 2023, 2024 in terms of strategy execution.
And then-
in terms of margin, in terms of cash generation, in terms of implementation of the EUR 4 billion, and then we have ample of time, I mean, to see where we're going. Anything beyond that does not make too much sense at this stage. Second question on mobility. I think you heard, I mean, what I explained in terms of the margin guidance for 2023. If you take the underlying 13%- 15%, I think that sits within the mid to long-term corridor where we think, I mean, mobility should be in terms of return on equity. I mean, we're driving that business at a 9% - 10%, I mean, equity ratio. I think that sits above our cost of capital.
At the end, I mean, frankly, this is one company, cars and mobility. I mean, we join forces and to be successful, I mean, in the market. There's no point in, so to say, on the one side, I mean, subsidizing the industrial side, the cars or the van side, and plummeting, I mean, the mobility return, nor on the other side, doing the opposite. No, we're doing that, I mean, as one team. At this stage, when we talked about, I mean, the lower interest rate margin, that is really, I mean, a function of the transition phase in some of the markets.
You cannot right away I mean, pass further on the higher level interest, I mean, to the customers. There's a time delay, I mean, in between, namely in Germany. There's also a competitive environment, and that's why I think, I mean, we cater for that. Ambitioning for this kind of underlying 13%-15%, we feel comfortable about that in terms of where it stands. Again, at the end, both work hand in hand to be most successful in the market space.
Thanks, Harald. Thanks, George. We continue with Horst Schneider from Bank of America
Yes, good morning. It's Horst Schneider from Bank of America, and thanks for taking most of my questions. The first one is for Harald, please. Would be great if you could maybe share some more details on industrial performance for 2023. Maybe you can share some details what exactly you expect just in terms of range for the raw material price burden, wage cost increases, supplier cost pass-through. I think that all falls into the industrial performance bracket. The number two is maybe more for Ola. When you say you want to double your EV sales in 2023, maybe you can provide some more details how you want to achieve that. In which region particularly you want to grow. I know you launched a lot of EVs, probably growth comes from the new models as well.
Is it just from the new models or you also expect increases from the EQA, EQB environment got not any easier with the Tesla price cuts, so maybe that affects particular EQA, EQB as well? Therefore, the question is also how you expect EV pricing to develop in the end, and is there a trade-off between volume and EV pricing in the end for 2023? Thank you.
The first one, Horst, on the industrial performance side, 2023, well, you might see some relief on the raw material side. I mean, if I think about steel, for example. At the same time, I mean, on battery materials, I mean, lithium, obviously they are still at a very elevated level. As the share goes up on the BEV side, I mean, that obviously causes headwind. What else? We do anticipate commodity one-time charges, I mean, in 2023 to continue also at an elevated level. Also, inflation hitting, I mean, the commodity bill, so to say.
I mean, the second tranche of this inflation compensation, I mean, in Germany, the EUR 3,000 per employee, just to name a few. All in all, still, I mean, a significant, I mean, headwind on the industrial side, less than from today's perspective, I mean, less than in the bridge, I mean, 2021 to 2022, but still, I mean, material.
To your second question, Horst, if you see how our EV portfolio is developing and you look at from now to the midterm into the mid of the decade, what will carry us over the next couple or three years are the vehicles that we have now. On the one hand, as you mentioned, the EQA and EQB, and also the four family members of the EQE, EQS family. That is what carry us for the next couple or three years. The second wave that comes beyond that is then the MMA architecture and the MBEA architecture, where we have a whole host of products that are both in Core and in the Entry segments. Specifically for the year 2023, it's a bit of both of what you mentioned.
Yes, we have very good momentum on the EQA and EQB, especially in Europe, but we have launched EQB in the United States, so that's just kind of started. As I mentioned, in China, you know, we're looking at how the market develops. It makes no sense to fire sale vehicles into that market, but then maybe have to have a little bit more patience than that. A combination of this, availability, I'm looking at the EQS here on stage, the smaller brother to that, the EQE SUV, comes in the second quarter of this year. Received very good feedback from that. Will be a good vehicle for the United States, but also for Europe and also for China.
It's a combination of these things, and that's why we feel that in this current market, even though we're guiding volume staying around the same level as next year, that our BEV side of the business has a good opportunity to grow by 100% this year.
Just a small follow-up. Ola, you expect to benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S., or it's a non-event for you in 2023? Or maybe a bit.
The Inflation Reduction Act does provide a policy for leasing, yes, that applies to our vehicles as well in the United States. That is a net benefit to the customer and will lead to some impetus in the market there for us as well.
Okay, that's great. Thank you. See you next week.
Thanks, Horst. We continue with Dorothee Cresswell from Exane.
Hi there. It's Dorothee Cresswell from Exane. Thanks for taking my question. I only have one left, which is around residual. We've obviously seen used car pricing peak, and I just wondered whether you could give us some more color on the size of the headwind that you're anticipating from lower off-lease asset disposal profits in 2023. I think you said that was reflected in your guidance. I'd just like to understand how big that is. Thank you.
Yeah. Thanks, Dorothee. Well, I mean, do we really see material drift or movement right now? I mean, not so much. I know we had been talking about that, I mean, again and again, and then it didn't happen. I'm not standing here and say cry wolf, but I think, probably in the context of the overall macro situation, it is, I mean, prudent, to include a bit of a softening here, which would mean it still remains very positive, but then would lead, I mean, to a less positive contribution in 2023 compared to 2021.
Well, as a rule of thumb, I would say maybe it's, I mean, in this guidance we gave today, roughly, I mean, half a percent in terms of RoS, loss, impact, headwind dilution, which we include at this juncture. Again, this is not based on a scientific data point. This is more, I mean, a risk protection from current perspective.
Thanks, Dorothee, for your question. We continue with Daniel Schwarz from Stifel.
Yes. Thank you for taking my question. I actually had two. One is on the EBIT margin outlook. Last year you included two percentage point buffer for macro risk. This year it's one percentage point. Is that an expression that risks are generally seen lower or your visibility is better compared to last year? The second question would be on the share buyback. The ad hoc says that Geely and BAIC remain below 10%. Can you maybe say why that is? Was it important to you or is a regulatory reason that they cannot exceed the 10%? Thank you.
Well, I mean, there's no sign, science as well between 2% last year and 1% by now. No, I think, I mean, based on what we could achieve in 2022, managing so that situation on the pricing, on the commodity side. On the other side, some of the raw mats, I mean, I mentioned, I mean, steel going right direction. Therefore, I mean, we do believe that, I mean, operating, so to say, with this 1% macro contingency at this stage is the right thing, I mean, to do. Obviously, we'll monitor very closely the evolution in all of the levers, I mean, throughout the year.
Probably having a too wide of a range, you wouldn't appreciate either, having gone through the experiences quarter by quarter with you as well, I mean, the last year. On the second point, I think, we very, very much, I think, I mean, enjoy and, I mean, appreciate, I mean, the partnership with each of them, with BAIC, and with Geely, you know, with a different focus. Therefore, having that kind of strong support, this is, I think, what you can read from this agreement, to stay below 10%. That means, share buyback action is strongly supported by each of them, respectively, BAIC, I mean, and Geely.
I think it's an endorsement, I mean, of the partnership which we're having, not just on the shareholding side, but also, I mean, on the business, on the strategy side of things. On the other side, keeping the shareholding below 10% in the current geo context, I think is also an important thing. Needless to say that there is no pooling. You should definitely read the shareholding separate, i.e. there's a BAIC shareholding and there's a Geely shareholding, and not read that as a combined shareholding. I think we are happy. We're very pleased and grateful and thankful for the support from both of these to agree with us, I mean, on short notice ahead of the announcement.
Again, that endorses, I think, a great partnership.
Thank you.
Thanks, Daniel. Thanks, Harald. If there's further question in the room, please give me a sign. I'll take next one on the phone and then we go back to the room. Next colleague in line would be Tom Narayan from RBC. Tom.
Hi, can you hear me?
Yes, very well. Loud and clear.
Yes. Sorry. Tom Narayan, RBC. Thanks for taking the questions. Looking forward to next week's event. I will be there. I have two questions. Another fun one on pricing. Ford noted at their results call the difference between pricing in the U.S. and in Europe. They had said that incentives are already very high in Europe, unlike in the U.S. There's also obviously corporate car fleet in Europe, higher BEV sales, premium exposure is higher. Just wonder, you're obviously in both markets, but if you are seeing a kind of a difference in the dynamics of pricing in Europe versus the U.S.
My second question is, I don't know if you can give an exact number, but any color on the net savings per car of going direct to consumer and maybe, on top of that, any commentary on the dynamics in the U.S. of going direct to consumer, given the dealership dynamics there? Thanks.
Maybe I start, and feel free to jump in, Harald. Whereas we don't obviously disclose our special discounts for different regions, what you mentioned, due to a higher level of fleet sales in Europe generally for many, many years, the incentive levels in Europe have sat above the United States traditionally. I don't wanna comment on what any other car maker says, but that is generally true. It's baked into the overall model of managing this.
In terms of how the markets look, and I think Harald mentioned it before, is that the economy has been remarkably resilient in the United States. I do read the press, and I do listen to the Fed, that they are very determined on getting inflation under control and will continue to increase interest rates and so on and so forth. There's a purpose behind that, I mean, we need to watch. That is as far as special discount management is concerned. For direct sales, also, we don't disclose what the net benefit of it is in terms of economically for our whole model, but it is a net benefit. Especially this issue. There's a cost savings benefit as well.
It's not just about the market dynamics and, you know, intrabrand competition and so on. It's both. I can only reiterate that on that side of it, we have so far been slightly positively surprised by how it has developed. United States is a different animal. With the franchise model in the United States, we are not pursuing direct sales in the United States, but are working with our very strong partners to develop our position in the U.S. market. What we did do, though, and I think we were one of the first OEMs, maybe the first OEM, we have signed an agreement with our dealers with regard to over-the-air updates and how that is going to be handled in the United States, which is very, very important.
Because you would not want to have the inconvenience of a customer that can buy something over the air, having to then drive to a physical location to get that over-the-air update. I mean, it defeats the whole purpose of the technology if you would have to do that. I'm happy that we could find a balanced agreement with our dealers that both parties profit from for over-the-air in the United States. Even though I realize that this is a small number now in terms of their revenue, and we will talk more about it next week, this is a number that can grow. In that regard, we will be able to sell directly over there to the customers, but in partnership with our dealers in the United States.
Great. Thank you.
Thanks, Ola. Thanks, Tom. The next gentleman would be in the room, Frank Biller from LBBW.
Yes, hello. Thanks for taking my question. There's a question about legal proceedings. In the last quarter, there was a positive of more than EUR 300 million. Maybe you can explain a bit what changed here to the positive and what is that going on in 2023?
Yeah. I mean, within that, well spotted within the Q4, obviously as each and every closing, we do a renewed assessment of all of these proceedings. That one, I mean, caused, I mean, some release of the provisioning, but also, I mean, technical evolution in terms of the FX evolution, which is also being recorded in there. That is basically explaining the evolution.
Thank you, Harald. I go back to the telephone to Philippe Houchois from Jefferies.
Thank you very much, and good morning. Sorry to go back to this direct selling, but the one question I have is, we've seen what Tesla has done recently in terms of pricing, but what I'm more interested in is kind of the transparency of what is happening in the direct selling business or the Agency Model business model. I mean, right now, the industry works more in an opaque manner between customer and the dealer and the dealer and the OEM. The risk in more direct selling approaches is we get much more transparency, much more dynamic pricing, and a bit of a yo-yo on the pricing. I'm just wondering what it means for your brand. Tesla is not a luxury brand.
It's barely maybe not a premium brand over time, but you are moving in a different direction. How does this visibility, transparency, or volatility in pricing impact the brand potentially negatively? Also if there's a big variance, you know, how that would potentially affect result value assumptions that you built into your business model. Then another question more for Harald is, from a modeling standpoint, you pointed out, you know, you're moving from being a wholesale business model to a more retail business model. That means you take on more risk on inventory, you know, finished and work in progress, but you also drop a lot of dealer receivables on your captive finance balance sheet.
I'm just wondering, from a consolidated business standpoint, is it gonna be more capital intensive to be doing direct selling rather than one more capital tied up on the industrial balance sheet, maybe it's inventory and less, much less tied up in the captive finance balance sheet? Thank you.
On your first question, I wanna go back to the feedback that we have received so far from the markets that we have turned. It's actually raised the comfort level with most customers that they are getting a fair deal. Yes, when you go into direct sales, you can have movements, and you'll have to make those decisions as you go along and how the market moves.
Ideally, you should try to prevent it from swinging too much in a too short period of time, of course. There, I come back to this, I don't know, homework number one, managing the operating point. As I said, it is, it is a craft. It's not something that is done without experience and sophistication. So, yeah, there would be more transparency on that, and you would have to try to manage those swings as best you can and try to not make it erratic. I want to underline that in the first market we turned three years ago, South Africa and Sweden. We have now some experience with this over the last couple of three years. In those markets that has worked quite well.
Now we're getting into some big markets here with U.K. and Germany, this year, so we're excited about how that's going to develop.
Philippe, on the modeling, on a nominal basis, yes, you are right. I mean, switching into the Model D basically means that the dealer stock comes on our balance sheet. But when we have a different approach or an ambition on it, namely, having a much more direct, I mean, interaction visibility, I mean, with customer allows to optimize also the inventory end-to-end, from the ordering down when into the factory and improve therefore the flow of the outbound. Therefore, I think there is definitely, I mean, a potential to not only add up, I mean, the inventory coming from the dealer, but having a consolidated view of an inventory and dealer, which is less than one plus one.
You might see in the guidance for 2023 when we say we have a cash conversion of 0.8-1. U.K., as Ola said, is already online. Germany coming online this year with a very important size of the market. We do believe and can absorb that overall, but also within the in-inventory envelope we want to do at large. On the financing side, I think when Mercedes-Benz Mobility already serves dealer financing, but also direct customer financing today. We could say to some extent wholesale financing falls apart and another share comes on board.
I do not expect any material shift in the in the size of the exposure on the Mobility side, nor in the in the credit quality, if I may say. It's again, we are in it already today, and I think the credit quality, but also, I mean, the risk management, allows us, I think, to run that exposure. I said it earlier today with net credit losses at a very, very moderate level, and I do expect that that is not going to change as a function of the switchover of the model.
I would like to underline one thing that Harald said on the management of the inventory. If you put it in a spreadsheet, it's not like you're not paying for the retail inventory today. You're paying it through the dealer margin. In a more optimized model that Harald described, actually, wholesale old wholesale stock plus now new retail stock, if that can be optimized better in a market, actually one plus one becomes less than two. The economic burden of the whole system of such a model is less burdensome and more economical than the model that we have today. That is one part of the cost savings of going into direct sales.
As you said before, I mean, the intra-brand competition, well, I mean, the dealer A has the vehicles on stock, right? The dealer B has a vehicle on stock. In the future, you don't need, I mean, the vehicles, I mean, of a dealer A and B. You only have one set. The elimination of the intra-brand is also an enabler to lower inventory.
Now I welcome Martin Wilkie from Citi in the line.
Yeah. Thank you. Good morning. It's Martin from Citi. Just one question to come back. You touched on the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S. a couple of times. Obviously, there's a lot of talk in Europe about what might happen here, and potentially some decisions towards the end of March. Are Brussels approaching you as to what you'd like to recommend as an industry as to what Europe should do to respond? And in terms of what you'd like to see as a company, and obviously there are incentives for electric vehicles in many countries in the E.U. already, but is it more to do with security of supply of critical components and so forth? Just how you might like to see that develop in Europe. Thank you.
In the dialogues that we have with political leaders in Berlin and in Brussels, whereas we support the underlying notion of pushing ourselves faster into a decarbonized future, I mean, it's one of the foundations of our whole strategy, and should Europe be willing or able to do more in this regard beyond what they have done with the IPCEI and so on, of course, that would be a positive thing. We would be for that with a but, without adding a protectionistic angle to it. We try to remind, and I think at least, Berlin is very aware of this, the biggest exporters from the United States back to Europe are German companies, and we are one of those German companies. Supporting, I don't know, investments and other things to make the transition more economical, faster, good.
Trade barriers, please no.
Clear statement, Ola.
Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Mm-hmm.
We continue on the line with Stephen Reitman from Société Générale.
Yes. Good morning. Thank you. I have a couple of questions, please. Just some clarification. You mentioned that you're planning to double your BEV sales this year. I was just wanting to be clear on what basis we're talking about. Is it on the resale figures that you described, so the 118,000 roughly that you sold in 2022, double that? Or are you looking at the wholesale figure that I'm looking at in slide number 20 of the fact book, where you're showing wholesales, which I guess includes Smart of just shy of 150,000 units. Second question, could you comment on PHEVs and with the abolition of the consumer-facing BAFA-Bonus, eco bonus in Germany, what reaction have you seen to demand for PHEVs in Germany and other markets as well?
Thank you very much.
To be very specific, and this was one of the conversations that we had before this meeting, we always state our wholesale numbers to avoid confusion. When I say double, I'm talking about the Mercedes-Benz branded vehicles wholesale. That's what I'm talking about. Smart, as you know, some of it sits in the production that we still have in Hambach of the fortwo, which is continuing throughout 2023 and into 2024. That we will not double. I think that will probably sit around the same level or something like that. In the joint venture that we have with Geely, we're just about to launch, or we're in launch right now of the first product called the smart #1. Great product, small city SUV.
That product is going from zero to many thousands. They need to talk about that joint venture separately. They need to talk about that. It's not meaningful when you had zero before to talk about the percentage on that side. That's it. PHEVs, you could see that we went from '21- '22 on a relatively stable level. We have indeed, though, introduced more and more of the new plug-in hybrids in the new cars that are coming into the market, that on a WLTP basis have around 100 km range. We can see that a lot of customers that like this best of both worlds proposition, they really love that. You can kind of...
can be electric from Monday through Friday, but if you have longer trip ambitions, you still have the combustion engines. Yes, Germany has changed their incentivization, but it's a super heterogeneous picture around the world here and around Europe. The plug-in hybrids will remain very relevant also in the next few years.
Thank you very much. We have time for a last one-
Thank you.
Last question out of the room, Patrick Hummel.
Thank you for allowing that follow-up. Just a high-level question in terms of how you approach product innovation. Where does Mercedes nowadays stand between the traditional seven-year product life cycle and the MOP, as you liked to call it in the past at least, mid of life cycle versus the constant rapid innovation model that some of the new players maintain with, you know, much shorter product life cycles, innovations on the fly that are more than just small design refresh? I'm thinking, you know, EQA, EQB, in a couple of years from now, they will probably look pretty dated against the MMA vehicle, and the same might happen to EVA2 vehicles when MB.EA is ready and the AMG version. How do you think about the innovation on existing products?
Do you have to set more CapEx or R&D aside for keeping these products fresh than was the case in the past? How is that baked into your investment budget? Thank you.
On the digital side, for all vehicles, and of course, accelerated as we then go into the MB.OS era, it becomes a constant flow. It is like this river. You just add water to it, and there's no beginning and no end. Yes, on the digital side, we're already moving into that direction, and we will accelerate the pace on that direction on all of our vehicles, not just the battery electric ones. With regard to the electric drivetrain, and maybe some other features as well, especially for the battery electric vehicles, it's not like you now do a fire and forget. You know, you put this beautiful EQS into the market and you say, "That's it.
Let's wake up in four years' time or in seven years' time and see what's going on." That's not going to work. You can expect us to also, during the life cycle of a vehicle, do things that maybe we didn't do in the past.
Thank you very much for this lively Q&A. Thanks a lot for your participation. Thank you very much, Ola and Harald, for your answers. As always, from an IR perspective, we are at your disposal afterwards. For the ones who wanna follow the media Q&A, this will start in approximately 15 minutes. To all of you once again, have a great morning, great afternoon, great evening. Look forward to talking to you soon. Look forward to seeing some of you next week in California. Thank you very much and goodbye.