Welcome to the analyst conference call of Mercedes-Benz. At the request of our customers, this conference call will be recorded. A replay of the call will be available as an on-demand audio webcast in the investor relations section of the Mercedes-Benz website. The short introduction will be followed directly by a Q&A session. If you experience any difficulties during the conference, please press zero and the pound key on your telephone keypad to reach the operator. If you wish to ask a question after the presentation, please press nine and the star key on your telephone keypad. You will then hear the message, "Thank you for your participation. Your request to speak is registered." When it is your turn to ask a question, you will hear the message, "You are now in talk mode." If you would like to withdraw your question, please dial three and the star key.
You will then hear the message, "Your request to speak has been removed". I would like to remind you that this teleconference is governed by the safe harbor wording included in our published results documents. Please note that our presentation contains forward-looking statements which reflect management's current views with respect to future events. Such statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties. If any of the assumptions underlying these statements prove to be incorrect, actual results might differ materially from those expressed or implied. Forward-looking statements speak only to the date on which they are made. With that, I would now like to hand over to Christina Schenck, Head of Mercedes-Benz Group Investor Relations, Digital and Communications. Thank you.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Christina Schenck speaking. On behalf of Mercedes-Benz, I would like to welcome you both on the telephone and online to our Q1 results conference call. I'm very pleased to have with me today Harald Wilhelm, our CFO. To allow more time for your questions, Harald will give a brief introduction and walk you through our financials. We will then move directly into the Q&A session. The corresponding presentation is available on the Mercedes-Benz investor relations website. With that, I will now hand over to Harald.
Thanks a lot, Christina, and welcome everyone. Very happy to take you through the highlights of the first quarter, which was another eventful quarter, geopolitically and for us as well. Let me get started with the execution of our strategy before I move then to the financials and the outlook. Our product ramp-up is gaining momentum. As outlined, we're executing the most comprehensive renewal and expansion of our product portfolio. The new S-Class, you certainly didn't miss this one, remains a cornerstone of our top-end strategy. We didn't stop there. We also unveiled the new Mercedes-Maybach S-Class in China, particularly important and very successful in the Chinese market. In 2025, every second S-Class sold in China was a Maybach.
This was complemented by the new EQS, now offering an 80-volt s ystem with fast-charging capabilities, more than 900 km of range, and steer-by-wire technology, which is really cool. We continued the S-Class story on the SUV side, presenting the new GLS in the U.S. alongside the GLE and the GLE Coupé. Last week, the all-new electric C-Class premiered in Seoul. Following the GLC, which has seen very strong demand, it is the second vehicle on our MB.EA architecture and our first electric C-Class, and frankly, it looks pretty stunning. On the van side, the all-new VLE had its world premiere. Built on our new, highly flexible van architecture, it marks the beginning of a new era for the vans division. We will take this even further. Besides the upcoming VLS, we announced the Mercedes-Maybach VLS, offering true luxury and expanding our top-end portfolio further.
By the way, all of these vehicles come with MB.OS, our own operating system, featuring the latest entertainment stack, assisted driving, and much more. By the way, talking about MB.OS, as previously emphasized, MB.OS enables us to partner globally with the leading tech companies. Level 2++ is already on the road in China and is coming to the U.S. later this year. We also go beyond as we work with robotaxi companies with robotaxis with partners. We are further strengthening also our local-for-local strategy. In China, the all-new GLC long wheelbase with China-specific entertainment and Level 2++ was unveiled at Auto China. GLC is closing the BEV white spot in our portfolio.
In the U.S., alongside the presentation of the new key products for this market, we announced investments of more than $7 billion until 2030. The U.S. is a strategic growth market for us, where we are further strengthening our footprint. With this, I would now turn to the financials on page 4, looking at the group KPIs. First, the group revenue developed broadly in line with the sales development at cars in the first quarter. The EBIT came in at a solid EUR 1.9 billion. EPS stands at EUR 0.49. Free cash flow healthy at EUR 1.9 billion. That brings us to a strong net industrial liquidity of almost EUR 34 billion, before obviously paying the EUR 3.3 billion divvy, which we did earlier this month.
Looking at the car sales, we ended the quarter with 419 units, in line with expectation. The sales development was impacted by China. If you look ex-China, total sales increased by 5%. Top-end sales particular were resilient in China, maintaining a global sales share of 15%. Core and entry were lower due to China, while growing by 7% ex-China. The global best sales developed well, up 9%. In Europe alone, we recorded a growth of 34%. This is largely driven by the CLA, obviously the remainder of the portfolio is currently ramping up, with more yet to come. Looking at the car financials, the sales I explained already. The ASP in the first quarter was lower, but slightly up compared to quarter four. This also drives the revenue development.
The EBIT adjusted is at EUR 900 million as expected, and, the CFBIT adjusted stands at EUR 3.4 billion. Now let's have a look at the EBIT evolution, the EBIT bridge on page 7 a bit more in detail. In quarter one, cars delivered an EBIT adjusted of around EUR 900 million, and the return on sales adjusted of 4.1%, well within our full year guidance range of 3%-5%. What are the main puts and takes on the walk? The volume structure and the net pricing is actually slightly negative. However, the bucket is lower overall, mainly due to the tariffs, product enhancements, lower China contribution, and a lower fixed cost capitalization. The FX, I think is self-explanatory on the chart.
On the industrial performance side, the underlying industrial performance is positive, driven by continued efficiency improvements that more than offset headwinds from raw mats and higher depreciation following our numerous product launches. However, on top, Q1 was impacted by several one-timers with negative items in the industrial performance on product-related measures and positive items largely in the other bucket. Overall, one-timers, however, were a wash in Q1. On the SG&A and the R&D side, you see they were positive, reflecting our further efficiencies and having left the funding peak behind us. Turning to the cash, Cars achieved a strong adjusted CFBIT of EUR 3.4 billion. How did we get there?
From the EUR 800 million of the EBIT, we generated significant working capital tailwind that reflects our continued effort to improve the working capital, including a favorable inventory structure and improved payables, mainly related to the production ramp-up. A part of this should unwind over the course of 2026. We further see proceeds from net financial investments. That's mainly due to the continued sale of our retail outlets in Germany. Depreciation exceeded investments. As we have passed the investment peak, total investments are lower, in line with our plan as selected in February. Overall, the level reflects our continued focus on investing in technology and competitive products on the R&D side, while also demonstrating a highly disciplined total CapEx approach.
These positive effects were partly offset by a negative other bucket, which cash outs related to restructuring charges of around EUR 800 million, dealer provisions, as well as the adjustment for the BBAC at equity result. As a result, we recorded CFBIT of EUR 2.6 billion. Adjusting for the special items, it's at EUR 3.4 billion. Looking on the van side, sales volume came in at 80,000 units. In China, we saw a softer consumer demand for mid-size vans. Excluding China, vans were able to grow year-on-year despite a particularly competitive environment in the U.S. and Europe. E-van sales increased by almost 30%, lifting the global EV share to 8%. Revenue development is broadly flat, and on the EBIT, we have a look on the next page.
Before, quickly on the cash flow, the main driver of the CFBIT were the planned investments into the new van architecture. Investments are expected to peak this year, strategically preparing vans for the future. This, I think, is a good moment to remind you that this represents the largest product investment program in the history of our vans business. It underpins a highly attractive and scalable product pipeline, including the all-new VLE, VLS, and VLS Maybach, alongside a broad range of private and commercial derivatives built on a highly flexible modular architecture. At the same time, we are completely remodeling our global production footprint with investments in Vitoria, Charleston, and Jawor to enhance flexibility, efficiency, and competitiveness. Working capital was a headwind driven by temporarily higher inventories as well as a higher value of stock from events. Looking on the EBIT walk for Vans.
Vans achieved an EBIT adjusted of EUR 450 million, and once again delivered a benchmark double-digit return on sales of 10.1%. Let me guide you through the buckets. The volume structure pricing is lower, reflecting a lighter product and market mix, negative net pricing, hardly offset by positive effects from an increased leasing portfolio. FX is a headwind, mainly driven by the Turkish lira, which was largely offset through pricing. Industrial performance is flattish, SG&A, R&D and others are awash. Looking on the financial services side, we have migrated to the new setup, which is working well and is enhancing our competitive offering in the market, which is also reflected in a higher penetration rate in the first quarter.
At the same time, we continue to sharpen our focus on the core financial services business, as evidenced by the signing of the Athlon agreement and the divestment from Blacklane, both expected to complete later this year. New business volume declined by 4% to EUR 13.1 billion, reflecting sales development and adverse FX effects. The portfolio stood at EUR 130 billion at the end of Q1, broadly unchanged versus year-end 2025. The financial services delivered a strong performance in Q1 with a return on equity of 13.3%. EBIT adjusted increased by 44%, supported by continued positive trend in portfolio margin, improved cost efficiency, while at the same time the cost of credit risk remained elevated, reflecting a weaker global economic outlook. Let's have a look at the group numbers.
On the EBIT side, Cars, Vans, Financial Services, I explained already. That results in a solid adjusted group EBIT of EUR 1.8 billion. We had some adjustments in the first quarter. Additional restructuring charges of EUR 175 million for our NLPP personal cost reduction program and M&A adjustments mainly related to Athlon following its reclassification as assets held for sale. With this, the group EBIT booked sits at EUR 1.9 billion. On the cash flow, Cars and Vans I covered already. Cash taxes are positive due to refund related to 2025. Interest paid is negative due to seasonality of coupon payments and higher interest environment. Interest income was positive with more than EUR 100 million. On the free cash flow, on the industrial side altogether, this is at EUR 1.9 billion.
The adjusted figure is significantly higher at EUR 2.8 billion, mainly due to the NLPP cash outs of almost EUR 1 billion in the first quarter. On the NIL bridge, page 14, by the end of the first quarter , the NIL increased to close to EUR 34 billion. That is a pretty comfortable level. Of this NIL, we paid EUR 3.3 billion as a divvy to our shareholders last week. What's the status on our share buyback program, our EUR 2 billion program? It's in full execution. In Q1, share buybacks totaled EUR 470 million. In total, as of today, as we speak, we have bought back shares worth more than EUR 1 billion since inception of the program. Following the AGM, share buyback has accelerated significantly.
With regard to the DT stake, we continue to monitor market development and capitalize on opportunities as they emerge. Now, turning to the outlook and the guidance. Getting started with the divisional guidance for 2025. Please consider the disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements at the end of this presentation in the relation to the outlook. Important to note, the war in the Middle East adds further uncertainty to an already high level of uncertainty in the global economic environment and automotive markets. The outlook assumes no prolonged conflict with respect to potential impacts on material, raw material, and energy prices, inflation, and sales trend. Assumptions are based on today's regulatory framework and on the U.S.-EU tariff rate expected to be reduced to zero now effective August 2026.
The car side, the sales guidance for 2026, we retain an overall constructive view with targeted growth ex-China. Global sales volume is expected to remain at prior year level. Product transitioning is impacting the sales volume as expected, with sales in Q1 being the lowest and building momentum in H2. xEV share is unchanged. With Q1 well within the guidance range, we continue to see adjusted return on sales between 3%-5% as guided. PP&E, R&D, and CCR remain unchanged. The Vans side, I can also make it pretty short. Sales guidance and the xEV share are unchanged. We continue to see adjusted return on sales as guided between 8% and 10%. No change to PP&E, R&D, and CCR.
Also on the financial services side, short and sweet, given the current interest rate volatility, we continue to see the full-year guidance unchanged in the range of 10%-12%. Looking at the group guidance, page 16, it follows obviously the same premises as the segment guidance. In line with the unchanged divisional guidance, all group guidance remain unchanged. Equally, on the free cash flow industrial guidance, this remains unchanged before additional proceeds from major M&A activity. Now turning a bit more to the outlook for the remainder of the year. What's ahead. Well, the 2026 ramp- up is in full motion. We see strong demand for our all new electric models. In Europe, that order intake has more than doubled compared to prior year's quarter, up by 107%.
New models resonate well with our customers. The order books for the new CLA, the GLB, and the GLC are filled well into the second half of the year. CLA and GLC production are running at three shifts, and additionally, an additional Saturday shifts for the GLC. The S-Class is now available to order in Europe. First deliveries are starting in second quarter in U.S., and China, this will follow in quarter 3. We also reskinned completely our large SUV portfolio with the GLS, the GLE, the GLE Coupé, including AMG versions, and the order books on these ones will open soon. On the VLE, the order book is open in Germany. The rest of Europe will follow soon.
With this, we are confident that we can build on that momentum, as our model ramp- up continues in quarter two, with momentum being built in H2. Last page 18. One of my personal highlights, the all-new Mercedes-AMG GT 4-Door Coupé, which will be introduced in Los Angeles on May 19th. You should really block this in your calendar. It will be our first model on AMG's electric high-performance architecture, AMG. EA. This car will set new benchmarks and embody true AMG DNA. Very much looking forward to that one. Thank you for now. With this, I hand back to Christina.
Thank you very much, Harald. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now move on to the Q&A session. I will identify each questioner by name. However, before asking your question, please also state your name and the name of your organization that you represent. A few practical points. Please ask your question in English. For reasons of fairness, please limit yourself to a maximum of two questions. Before we begin, the operator will briefly explain the procedure once again.
Yes, thank you very much. Dear ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press nine and the star key on your telephone keypad. You will then receive a confirmation that you have been placed in the queue. To withdraw the question, please press three star on your telephone keypad. You will receive a confirmation that your request has been removed. Once again, to ask a question, please press nine star on your telephone keypad. If you experience any difficulties when raising a question, please try dialing in via one of the alternative conference call numbers provided in your invitation, or press zero pound key on your telephone keypad for operator assistance. Thank you very much.
We start the Q&A, and the first question goes to Tim from Deutsche Bank.
Yeah. Thank you very much. I think now you hear me. It's Tim from Deutsche Bank. Thank you, Christina. Thank you, Harald. Two questions, please. The first one, Harald, given there was quite a bit going on, just for modeling and contextualizing your full-year guidances, how should we think about one-timers going forward? Is there anything material that you already have on your agenda that we should already think about in our modeling in the coming quarters with respect to cash and earnings? I'm also thinking about your restructuring program. Lots of outflows in Q1. Obviously, some performance improvements impacts that you already see in Q1 as well on the P&L. Where do we stand on that side? Secondly, you already quickly touched on this, but it is a big topic, obviously.
How should we think about raw material inflation in the second half of the year? Is there anything that you're planning already? You said you start to see it a bit, but it's a bit uncertain. How should we think about this? Thank you.
Yeah. Thanks a lot, Tim. With regard to one-timers, as you mentioned them, number one, would like to reemphasize that globally in the first quarter, I mean, they all wash, as I outlined, when going through the EBIT bridge, I mean, a bit before. When I look at the full year in terms of the outlook, obviously, as we guide also at the group level on an EBIT reported basis, everything which we have in mind, which we know, I mean, is included in there. You could see a step-up in the restructuring provision for our personal cost reduction program. In the first quarter, I do not expect any further material addition in the restructuring provisioning on the, on the EBIT side, nor any other material restructuring elements.
Otherwise, I mean, we would have included them obviously in the group guidance outlook. On the cash side, I think, we put it clear in the outlook as well on the free cash flow reported for the group that this is before material M&A. What is in our mind here, what is included in the guidance at this stage, are minor M&A activities, smaller divestments, in terms of our own retail divestments. Larger ones to come to the extent they close in 2026 obviously, would further support cash generation. What else comes to mind? Athlon closing is expected in 2026.
However, that will not sit in free cash flow, but certainly will enhance the net cash position, and we would consider that obviously also in capital allocation. Your favorite ones on DT, no material divestment is assumed in the number. That's why this guidance is before material M&A cash flow. In other words, I mean, if you take that guidance on the free cash flow as outlined before in terms of total cash generation, I would say there are some distinct opportunities to enhance cash generation further, and you know the capital allocation framework, what we are supposed to do with it.
On the second question, on the raw mats, well, you can see in the first quarter bridge already in the industrial performance that we face, some raw mats, headwinds, and we do expect raw mats to step up, I mean, further in the remainder of the year, higher than what we anticipated at the beginning of the year, also driven by the Middle East crisis and, I mean, the global macro situation. That is included, however, I mean, in the outlook for the full year, in line with the 3%-5% guidance, which we confirm here today.
Very clear. Thank you.
Thank you, Tim. We move on to the next question, and it goes to Mike Tyndall from HSBC.
Yes. Morning, folks. Thanks for taking my questions. Mike Tyndall from HSBC. I guess first question just around products, the new products specifically. If I think about your, the capital markets day and the plan in terms of product cost savings, it feels like the big step is to come forward. Is that what we're going to see as these new products ramp? I'm just trying to think about, you know, very strong order intake. How does that translate in terms of EBIT? I guess the second question, I guess in some ways it's self-explanatory, but Q1 is arguably the toughest quarter in terms of FX and tariff, and you've hit the middle of the range. Is the reason we haven't seen an upgrade simply because it's a pretty uncertain world out there?
'Cause it does feel like you're well set up for the rest of the year now. Thanks.
Thanks, Mike. Number 1, yeah, on new products, we're very pleased to see the momentum. The order intake numbers are going up. I mentioned the BEV numbers in terms of order intake in Europe, 107% up. Obviously, you don't see that in sales yet, but it's a good indicator for what is to come. That's what we had been working for so hard. That's what you had been waiting for so patiently. That's what we wanna bring to fruition in the course of 2026, and obviously, I mean, beyond that. At the same time, we do know that, I mean, the EV vehicles carry higher variable cost than their brothers and sisters on the ICE side.
That's why we engage into significant cost savings, I mean, over time, and that should help to improve the margins on these EV vehicles, I mean, over time, 2027, 2028. During the CMD, we outlined that we see the possibility to go to a break even margin break even between ICE and EVs towards the end of the decade, all costs, including CO2, being included. We're exactly, I think, I mean, on that path. This is also a bit of an answer to your second question as obviously as we're ramping up, I mean, BEVs in the second half of the year. The volume goes up, but there's a bit of a dilution coming along with it. No, quarter one is not the worst in terms of the tariffs.
Actually, quarter one on tariffs is slightly mitigated due to the IPAC refund claim, which we included in the books and the records. Actually, I mean, the Q1 tariff impact is around 100 basis points, whereas we expect for the full year still 150 basis points. We'll have some headwind coming from the tariff side in the remainder of the year. From higher raw mats, as I answered Tim's question before, and the third, I would say, is the BEV dilution I just mentioned before, and then obviously the depreciation which kicks in with the new models coming off the production line.
That's why, in terms of the remainder of the year, despite the momentum and some volume growth in H2, we see the guidance in the 3-5 corridor for now.
Got it. Thank you.
Thank you, Mike. We would move on to the next question. It goes to Jose Asumendi from JP Morgan. Sorry. Jose, can you hear us? Okay, Jose, I'm sorry we cannot hear you. We will try again. Let's move on to the next one, and I will hand over to Stephen Reitman from Bernstein. Stephen, over to you.
Good morning. Two questions, please. First of all, on China, can you give us some idea of the timetable of the launch of the GLC Electric in terms of when you're going to be announcing the pricing on that vehicle? Obviously, it's very early days since you did the sort of, like, the full unveil of the long wheelbase version in China. Can you talk a little bit about the reactions you're seeing from your dealers and from any other relevant sources you can talk about? Secondly, on BEV demand, are you noticing any impact yet? Are you seeing what feedback you're getting from the dealers about customer interest maybe moving more towards BEV because of high fuel prices? Thank you.
Thanks, Stephen. Yeah, on the timetable, the GLC long wheelbase is expected to hit China market in quarter three, to turn probably quarter three, quarter four, if my memory is correct. Well, we will set in the pricing at the right moment of time, I would say, not too early, not too late. I think as you could see also, I mean, on other products, we'll have a view that this is competitive, however, obviously protecting, I mean, the brand and the product premium.
The reaction, the feedback from dealers on the GLC, on the EV product line, on what is to come this year, but also, as you know, from time to time, you show a bit the jewelry which are yet to come, also beyond 2026, is very encouraging. The tech motion which we kicked off with the CLA in terms of MB.OS, in terms of level 2++, now, I mean, CLA on the road in China with level 2++, I think is gaining a good momentum in support of the entire product lineup, I mean, to come.
That's, I mean, why we are hopeful that the GLC long wheelbase, which was revealed last week during the auto show, will pick up a momentum once it's going to be launched in the China market. Your second question in terms of EV demand, I would say for Europe, definitely we see that very recently with the Middle East crisis, the fuel price spike, the dependencies, I mean, on fuel, there is definitely, I mean, a favorable momentum picking up. Well, I mean, I cannot tell you how sustainable that is going to be in case the conflict settles.
Clearly, the product in itself, I think, are considered as very attractive through Mercedes, and that is supported, I would say, by the current, macro and geopolitical circumstances.
Thank you.
Okay. I'll try one more time with Jose. Jose, are you online? That's not the case. Let's move on to Christian Frenes from Goldman Sachs.
One moment. Sorry. Here's the operator speaking. Jose, we can hear you, but not really well. Unfortunately, we cannot understand you. Maybe you could try dialing in one more time, and then we will. Unfortunately, we cannot understand you. We are very sorry. Something seems wrong with your line. We cannot understand you at all. We are very sorry. Please try dialing in again. Thank you. We are moving on to Christian. Okay.
Yes. Let's move on to Christian. Christian, over to you.
Okay. Hello, can you hear me now?
Yes.
Okay, great. I don't know what happened there. It's Christian Frenes from Goldman Sachs. Two quick questions, please. Harald, you mentioned the tariff had 100 basis points headwind in Q1, and I think you mentioned 150 basis points headwind for the full year. Just the cadence of this, I suppose should Q2 be the peak tariff headwind then and then with the reduction in the second half? Could you just clarify, please? The second question, in your CARS profit bridge, there seems to be, you know, the other was obviously a benefit. You called that out. You said it was a wash. It looks like your other operating income and expense talks about a EUR 350 million gain from a settlement from claims against suppliers.
Could you just elaborate what that's about, please? Thanks.
Thanks, Christian. I would say, probably, the quarters to come should run at around 150 basis points dilution from the tariffs. Well, obviously it depends a bit on the sales from the imports, I mean, into the U.S., but globally, I would say, take it as a kind of 150 basis points per quarter to come, I would say. That gives you not exactly maybe 150 basis points, I mean, for the full year, but in the vicinity of.
To your second question, I mean, in the bridge here, as I explained, I mean, in the other bucket, we have some support in the industrial performance with some negatives. All in all, I mean, they are a wash. What is in the other bucket? Yes, we have included in the in the quarter one profit the claim towards the suppliers which we had been discussing and settling. You will understand that I will not outline any particular supplier relationships. Please understand.
Thank you.
Thank you, Christian. We would move on to Patrick Hummel from UBS.
Thank you, Christina. Hi, Harald. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I'd like to first ask about China. I mean, your sales performance obviously in Q1 wasn't great, but listening to you, it sounds like it was more, you know, in line with your plans, because you were not pushing too hard.
Is it fair to say that Q1, according to your playbook at least, is gonna be the weakest quarter for China, and we should see not just sales picking up and, you know, bearing in mind we're talking about also EV sales picking up in the second half, is it still fair to assume that also the profitability should improve despite the dilutive impact of EVs versus ICE cars, just to get a better handle on what you expect from China for the remainder of this year? My second question, you booked this booking on Athlon, about EUR 300 million. You know, that asset in itself is worth more than EUR 1 billion, I think. Then you marked EUR 2 billion worth of DTG shares as held for sale.
That gets me to EUR 3 billion M&A or potentially even more, and in the plan you presented with the full year, you talked about EUR 2 billion. I just wonder whether, you know, if you execute all the transactions, if that has any impact on cash returns or you would stick to basically the framework you presented and, you know, any further proceeds would just, you know, give you some buffer maybe for 2027 or so. Thank you.
Thanks, Patrick. First question on China and China sales. I would say, China sales, first quarter evolution, I mean, was roughly in line with what we did expect. We said at the beginning of the year in the full-year outlook, as you remember, that we do expect China sales to be lower in 2026 versus 2025. What was, I mean, in the year and year as well, I mean, elements, remember that the banking commissions have come down, I mean, significantly. That has, I mean, a particular impact, I mean, also, I mean, on our side. You could also see that, I mean, we adjusted in terms of go-to-market strategy. We did adjustment on MSRP.
We did negotiate and discuss and settle with dealers in the first quarter. That, I mean, had some temporary impact, I mean, in the first quarter, but consciously, as we were trying to protect as well profitability at our end as well as, I mean, profitability, I mean, on the dealer side. That came, I mean, at the expense of volume, but consciously. This is, I think, I mean, the important point. As you say, exactly, I mean, as we're building the momentum for H2 with all of the products, I mean, to come, ones, I mean, I emphasize, I mean, the S-Class, S-Class Maybach, the GLS, the GLE locally is localized. Really cool product. The GLC, I mean, electric, the C-Class to come.
I think, there's a fair expectation, this to create volume momentum. Therefore, from today's point of view, I would say quarter one, I mean, should be at the lowest in terms of the sales. Well, I mean, we're not outlining, I would say, the profit, by region. Globally, I would say that should also have, I mean, a supportive effect in terms of margin generation in the, in the second half of the year from China. However, as you can see also in the first quarter, in terms of, China contribution, supplies to China, BBAC result, it's a tough competitive, I mean, market environment.
That's why next to the product momentum, we're taking a lot of actions in terms of localization, in terms of sourcing, in terms of cost effort to mitigate the market situation. The second question in terms of M&A, on the Athlon side, you referred to the EBIT side of things, I would say. The gain included at the group level of EUR 300 million. That is basically as we moved Athlon as an asset sale for sale. The intercompany margin, which has been stored at the group level during the period we hold Athlon, gets now released as the asset gets divested.
So that's a bit more, I would say, a mechanical side of things, accounting side of things, I mean, on the EBIT. I think your question refers more to the cash side. Well, I mean, is there a potential to do more, over EUR 2 billion of cash generation from M&A? I would say yes. I think you could count Athlon in for maybe up to EUR 1 billion or so. However, it will not hit free cash flow on the industrial side as it sits on financial services.
Clearly, it adds to the net cash position. I said it before, I confirm, we would consider obviously this amount also in the capital allocation framework, i.e. consider as cash generated, next, to the other assets, in the own retail as well as any potential move on DT stake. Next to the underlying industrial free cash flow, which we confirmed as per the guidance today, I think, there is a decent cash upside from M&A.
Thank you very much.
Thank you, Patrick. We will try one more time to connect José. José, can you hear us? Okay. It doesn't work, unfortunately. Okay, we move on to Horst Schneider, Bank of America. Horst, over to you.
Good morning, Harald and team. Hope you can hear me. The first question that I have relates to EBIT bridge for in cars for 2026. I really like the details you provided when you released the full year 2025 results and to what extent the various drivers will impact results in 2026. I want to come back on that. Could you maybe repeat again what drives now EBIT in cars in 2026? I have here in my notes -0.5% from structure pricing, -1% FX, gains. I think you said already that the raw material gonna have a more negative effect. Maybe you can update us on these drivers for 2026. That's number one.
Number two, I was surprised in Q1 that you had such a positive impact from the trade payables while inventories were also moving down. I wonder why that was and should we expect going forward some reversal of this trade payable effect? I'm also not aware if you have provided the guidance for working capital for the full year, because I'm thinking, as you rightly say, you're gonna increase sales in H2, should lead to an increase of inventories, but also trade payables. I'm not sure about the trade-off, to what extent working capital will be a positive driver in 2026 or not. Thank you.
Sorry, now it's on. Thanks, Horst. To remind us, the EBIT walk 2025, 2026, as outlined during the ARC and the CMD, I think you picked up on most of the elements, but for the benefit of everybody, I mean, if you depart from 2025, we said at the point in time, tariffs and FX, is -1%, structure and pricing is -0.5%, raw mats is -0.5%, efficiency is 2%, and the depreciation is 0.7%. Well, that's pretty precise now.
Looking at it from a Q1 perspective, i.e. b ased on the quarter one performance, I mean, I will not make an update of each and every item, I would say, but globally, I mean, I would say tariffs, I mean, maybe is a bit better. I mean, as we included the IPAC refund in the quarter one, as commented, I mean, a bit earlier. Structure and pricing, I would roughly see in the same vicinity. Raw mats, maybe a bit more headwind, I mean, to come. Efficiencies, I think, I mean, we are on track. We're also on track in the first quarter. I hope the explanation I gave you on terms of reading material for the bridge helped.
The what sits inside is in sync with the 2% for the full year. The depreciation is also, I think, in the same order of magnitude as outlined during the ARC. Which means all in all, I would say probably, yeah, a bit more raw mats, and headwind, a bit less of a headwind in on the tariffs, and then some puts and takes, but that's why all in all, we confirm the 3%-5%.
Mm-hmm.
Point number two, on the trade payables, in the first quarter, on working capital, what is in there. In the first quarter, we increased inventory from the end of the year, 2025, which is usually the low point in terms of inventory. You get ready obviously to support the product ramp up, the new products coming, that's why inventory went up in the first quarter. However, the inventories, on the structure, on the mix, lighter is improved. Also, the cost efficiencies have an impact on the inventory. That's why you don't see in the cash flow chart such a burden on the inventory side.
It's rather, I mean, in light or a wash. Whereas, on the trade payables, you see, I mean, a more important amount. I mean, that is a function, I mean, of the production ramp up, which is favorable, I mean, on the payable side. Obviously, then, I mean, if you move throughout the year, you then will deliver, I mean, these vehicles as per the sales expectation and then come back down again in terms of the inventory towards the year-end, towards our inventory targets. We did not set out any specific guidance on working capital. That's all included in the free cash flow guidances, in the CCRs of the division and the cash flow of the group.
Clearly, I mean, we have, I mean, very tight and stringent, I mean, working capital targets for all of the three elements. I mean, the DIO, the DSO and the DPO. Next to it, I mean, we're also working and on further improvements on all of the elements. In particular here, you see a benefit to kicking in the first quarter on the, on the payables side, which should also last and be therefore permanent. In a nutshell, a part of the payables will be temporary, a part will be permanent.
Okay.
I hope that helps.
No, that helps a lot. Thanks for that. Small follow-up on raw materials. Is the increase in raw materials not impacting also your suppliers so that it will be more difficult to cut the material costs as much as you want? I think it's an industry phenomenon. It not just affects you, but your view on that would be interesting.
With different contractual arrangements, some are, I mean, fixed prices obviously, and on some, I mean, you have more floating. That's when, I mean, all in all, I mean, we included risk assessment in terms of raw material evolution, I mean, for 2026. That is included, I mean, in the outlook as I pointed out, I mean, before.
Mm-hmm. Okay. That's great. Thank you, Harald.
Thank you, Horst. We will now move on to Henning Cosman from Barclays.
Yeah. Hi, good morning, everybody. Thanks, Christina. Thanks, Harald. I wanted to come back on the operating free cash flow. I know we've, you know, we talked about the working capital a lot, but I think we're dancing around a little bit whether there could be upside to the operating free cash flow guidance. I understand there's upside from the M&A piece. If we think of the above EUR 4 billion and some of the payables effect in Q1 being sustainable now, and the momentum that you hope to generate in the second half, would you be prepared to make a statement if there's a bit of upside? I mean, above EUR 4 billion is obviously all demanded anyway, any sort of additional color, if you could, would be great.
In a related sort of question also ultimately free cash flow, I suppose you called out quite prominently, the investment in the U.S. in the, in the press release at least, perhaps not so much in your prepared remarks now. I'm just wondering if there's anything incremental there, anything at all to do with a continued hope for more favorable tariff treatment eventually. If there's still anything ongoing in terms of electoral conversations with the U.S. administration. You know, separately from that even, is there anything incremental in, in terms of CapEx or investment plan that you're calling out for the U.S. today? Thank you very much.
Thanks, Henning. I had some difficulties, frankly, to understand some elements of your question from voice over. First one, if I get it right, was on the free cash flow side of things. The operational free cash flow side. The M&A side of things I commented already, I mean, before, I would say. I think on the operational free cash flow, it was a good start of the year as outlined before, supported by working capital. Payables, yes, some element will reverse, I mean, in the course of the year. On the other side, well, I mean, you have EUR 1 billion of NLPP cash out sitting in the first quarter, which should not repeat in the remainder of the year.
For the large chunk of cash out on the restructuring program, I mean, that is behind us. Obviously, that will help the cash generation in the remainder of the year. Then, I mean, we'll focus on all of the other levers, I mean, in terms of efficiencies anyhow, but also then on the attempt to manage the inventory to target, which is always a bit more towards, I mean, the year- end. I mean, quarter two, quarter three, we are in the ramp-up mode, I mean, for the new products. So you would see some seasonality obviously here in the cash generation, as you can see also in previous years, but probably more emphasized, more supported, I mean, given the high number of product launches, I mean, we're doing.
I would say based on the Q1 cash flow, therefore, with the elements I outlined on working capital on NLPP, I think we feel good with the guidance of slightly below, and you know what, the corridor is of slightly below compared to the EUR 5.4 billion, which we printed in 2025. Your second question, in terms of further investments in the U.S. and impact, I mean, favorable impact, I mean, on tariffs or deals. Well, I mean, we think we had a important event with the GLS and the GLE reveal in the U.S., in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, in March. We celebrated at that moment in time the fifth million vehicle coming off the line in the U.S.
I think, we could witness, I mean, with a lot of stakeholders being present, during that event, that we are considered as a very good corporate citizen. I mean, over there, we continue to entertain, I think, therefore constructive, I mean, dialogue, but I would not speculate about, I mean, any, link between the investment and the tariffs at this juncture. We are committed, to continue to invest in the U.S. as outlined with the EUR 7 billion investment, for 2026. I don't think, I mean, there's any particular thing I mean to mention. That is a more, mid to long-term strategic statement, I mean, we've been doing. Very clearly, I mean, we see the potential for further localization in the U.S., in particular in the SUV core segment.
That is not, I think for 2026, that is a bit more in the midterm. I hope that answered the questions to the extent I got them.
No, that's great. Thank you. Just to confirm, no more NLP payouts this year in the cash, probably around another EUR 1 billion or so in 2027.
I mean, we did already in 2025 from memory is EUR 200 million, EUR 300 million or so, I think in 2025 cash outs, and then now EUR 1 billion in 2026 first quarter. We will still have some cash out, I mean, in 2026 or remainder, but obviously much lower than EUR 1 billion in the first quarter. From today's point of view, we should be done with it.
Very good. Thank you.
Obviously, the benefit kicking in terms of, I mean, the people have come off the payroll to a large extent, by the end of the year, throughout quarter one. Obviously, that will create, I mean, run rate benefit, moving forward. I mean, that's why we did invest into it.
That's great. Thanks, Harald.
Thank you very much, Henning. We'll move on to Stuart Pearson from Oxcap Analytics.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my call. Stuart Pearson from Oxcap . Following up just very quickly to check my understanding was right on the IPAC refund. Just from what you said, I guess it sounds like you're suggesting that was around 50 basis point support in cars in the quarter. Just to check that that's correct and where that would sit in the bridge, I guess, in structure. Maybe just clarify on that. The second one, just slightly bigger picture. I guess coming back to the U.S., but more the demand side. I know coming into this year as a market, you talked about growth, and I think it was targeted to grow there to, you know, 400,000 retails by the end of the decade.
I think retail's a bit tougher than that in Q1. Just wondering what you're thinking on the U.S. opportunity. I guess you'll have a bit more supply from both GLE and maybe that core SUV a little bit later on. Is that still a significant growth market that you're excited about? What are you seeing in April there? That would be interesting. Then the third one, just on financial services. Obviously very strong quarter. Noticed credit losses came down there a little bit. Is there also a bit of help from residual values improving a little bit in the U.S. just coming out of the end of that normalization process? Just any color on that strong financial services performance would be great. Thank you.
Thanks, Stuart. I mean, in the first quarter, I mean, that refund, following, I mean, the Supreme Court ruling and has been included, I mean, in the first quarter results, and that mitigated, I mean, the tariff impact that sits in cars, but it sits also in vans. That makes basically, as is commented, I mean, the cars dilution limited, I mean, to 100 basis points, I mean, in the first quarter. I think we, we don't spell out, I mean, the detailed amounts, please understand. In terms of the U.S. market, very clearly we see that, as a very important market. We see that also as a market with good growth opportunities.
When I say that, it means I'm not assuming the entire U.S. auto market meant to grow massively, but clearly we have an attack plan to grab share in areas where we're in particular strong, such as the top end. U.S. market, we enjoy a top-end vehicle share of 30% we owe. If you look at the product pipeline to come with the new S-Class, with the GLS now, the new GLS and the GLE, which really wheeled, and many more products, the AMGs. I guess, why we're doing the AMG event in Los Angeles in May. I think we can really create a good buzz, and that's what we wanna do despite the tariff challenge.
This is a distinct decision that, I mean, we're not holding back. No, we are in attack mode, I mean, for the U.S. market, but based on great products, which are, I mean, in the pipeline. The third point on financial services, yeah, I think a good quarter. I would say, it should also be decent quarters ahead. What's driving the improvement, or what's, I mean, the 13% in the fourth quarter, definitely it is the interest margin improvement. We talked about the acquisition margin improvement in the last numerous quarters, and said, I mean, it will come soon, so you need to be a bit patient. I mean, here you go. That is definitely, I mean, the biggest lever in the profitability improvement.
Number two, the efficiencies, which we continue to drive. The new structure also has significant cost savings and efficiencies, which we are able to pull off. Third, on cost of credit risk, we stepped up given the macro challenges, so it's a headwind. That has been nicely digested, I mean, in the quarter one. As we update obviously that model based on the macros parameter each and every closing. Your point on residual values, that sits on the industrial side, so that doesn't impact the financial services.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Stuart. Looking at the time, I think we are at the end of our call. Thank you all very much for your questions and for being with us today. Thank you very much, of course, to Harald for answering all of the questions. Investor Relations remains at your disposal to answer any further questions you may have. To all of you, have a great morning, a great afternoon, and a great evening. Thank you and goodbye.