Everyone. Welcome to our Q4 full year earnings call. We are delighted that so many of you have dialed in so close to Christmas, and we appreciate your interest in our company. With me today are our CEO, Werner Ponikwar, and our CFO, Arno Pfannschmidt. They will guide you through today's presentation. Now, before we start, let me briefly address the usual formalities. Firstly, this call is being recorded, and a replay will be made available on our website later today. Secondly, don't forget that today's presentation, and potentially some answers to your questions, may contain forward-looking statements. For additional information in this regard, please refer to the, to the disclaimer. And with that, let me hand over to our CEO, Werner Ponikwar.
Right. Thank you, Hendrik, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and a warm welcome also from my side. I'm very pleased that you are with us today for the presentation of our full year results. Let me start with the highlights of the past financial year on page five. Indisputable, one of the most important highlights was our successful IPO on July seventh. The IPO was a significant step for our company, as we were able to raise primary proceeds of EUR 526 million in a challenging capital market environment. We will use these funds to systematically drive forward our growth strategy and to strengthen our market position in key markets.
For our IPO, we recently received an award from Deutsche Börse and Weimer Media Group in the category Impact IPO, and this shows the great confidence placed in our ability to really make an impact through our technology to produce green hydrogen for the decarbonization of industries. Secondly, in the financial year 2022-2023, we were able again to win large projects. In our chlor-alkali business, we have seen the highest order intake of all times. In our alkaline water electrolysis business, we were awarded one of the largest, if not the largest, European green hydrogen project to fuel the low-emission steel plant of H2 Green Steel in Sweden. Thirdly, we were able to grow the organization by around 30%, and to further increase our alkaline water electrolysis capacity, which is now exceeding 1.5 GW.
Moreover, we have delivered our first 20 MW modules to our customers, as promised, and are well on the way with the execution of our projects. Let's turn to a snapshot of the strong financial performance in the past fiscal year on the next slide. Here, I just want to point out some of the developments before Arno goes into the details of our financials later on. Our group sales increased by 70% year-on-year, driven by a more than six-fold increase in green hydrogen sales. Order backlogs stood at around EUR 1.4 billion at the end of September, with the alkaline water electrolysis business contributing around EUR 0.9 billion.
EBIT amounted to EUR 24 million, EUR 50 million above the corresponding prior year figure, thanks to higher sales in the AWE business and an improved project mix and project execution in both chlor-alkali and alkaline water electrolysis. These profits were only partly offset by higher costs for organizational capacity expansions for our future growth. Also, worth mentioning, EPS improved to EUR 0.21 on the back of the EBIT increase and higher interest income. Finally, net financial assets were very strong, with EUR 761 million at the end of September, a significant year-on-year increase, largely, of course, driven by the IPO proceeds. On the following slides, I would like to outline some key aspects of our business development, starting with our continued strong momentum in our project pipeline on page seven. We continue to see increased demand for green hydrogen electrolysis systems.
The increase in potential contract value in our project pipeline is driven mainly by North America, where we see the strongest market dynamics. Project sizes have also risen considerably, confirming our strategic focus on large-scale solutions and industrial clients. I'm very optimistic that we will convert the extensive pipeline into further project wins for us in the future, whereby the capacity reservations you know about are the most likely ones in the short term, of course. To also give you a perspective on timing, because there have been discussions on the growth rate of the hydrogen market just recently, around two-thirds of the actively pursued projects in our pipeline should reach effective contract date by the end of our financial year 2024-2025.
So it is roughly a 20-month horizon from today's perspective, with some of the projects reaching contract signature earlier, some of course later. Now, moving on to our order book on page eight. Probably you already know most of the projects stated here, as it is mainly a recap to the last financial year. I have mentioned the big projects. We have one on the alkaline water electrolysis side and a record high for chlor-alkali. On top of that, in October, we have signed a reservation agreement with the Finnish Neste Corporation to supply six 20 MW scalum modules with a total installed capacity of 120 MW for Neste's refinery in Porvoo, in Finland. Also, on the chlor-alkali side, we were able to keep the momentum and signed another order in South America.
And looking forward, we will work on converting the capacity reservation into firm contracts and, of course, also to further projects. Next, we want to provide you with an update on some of our ongoing projects. Regarding NEOM in Saudi Arabia, one of the world's biggest green hydrogen projects to date, we are well underway and in line with the customer's projects timeline. The first lot of modules was released for packaging to be shipped. Well, and actually, I'm pleased to say that the first modules out of this lot were already shipped out of our module yard in Vietnam, and further modules are ready for shipment. The H2 Green Steel project is also making progress.
H2 Green Steel recently communicated that they have started construction work on its site in Boden, installing the first building columns on their foundations, and our work is well underway and according to plan. I can also update you on the order intake for H2 Green Steel, which I think is something a lot of you wondered about. Just last week, we have started the next phase of the project and received additional payments and booked order intake in just slightly above EUR 100 million. The remainder of the project, which is still about 60% of the total contract value, is expected to follow in the next few months. As far as the green ammonia electrolysis project of CF Industries is concerned, the erection of the module is completed.
We expect cell assembly and commissioning to start in the first quarter of calendar year 2024, and overall, the project is on track for startup in spring 2024 and to produce first green hydrogen molecules. As you can see, our project execution is well on the way. This holds true also for the project I have not mentioned here, and we are excited for the months of progress to come. Now, we are actively also responding to the acceleration in the market by expanding our operations. As you know, one focus of ours is the strengthening and expansion of our supply chain to 5 GW by the end of our fiscal year 2025-2026. We are well on track to achieve this, and as I said earlier, our alkaline water electrolysis capacity is now already exceeding 1.5 GW.
Moreover, we make good progress in the module yards. The module yard in Vietnam is already able to manufacture 18 AWE modules in parallel. And keep in mind that one module is 40 meters long, so that gives you an idea of the dimensions of those yards, and this is only one of the yards that we have. I'm also delighted to announce the successful completion of our product manufacturing certification for the 20 MW electrolyzer unit, according to the ISO standard. This is an important proof point of our unwavering commitment to safety, quality, and state-of-the-art manufacturing. This milestone underscores our dedication to delivering products that meet the highest industry standards, ensuring the best performance for our customers. The certification process rigorously assessed and validated our product design and manufacturing processes, affirming our commitment to excellence and innovation.
With this achievement, our customers can trust in the quality and reliability of our products, setting a new benchmark mark for safety and engineering in the market. Overall, we are well on track with our capacity increase across all parts of the value chain to meet increasing customer demand for our solutions. Well, further to our operational build-up, let us take a closer look at one key area of our continuous improvement in technology and fabrication: cell assembly. On page 11, we share a snapshot of our assembly lab, which just recently started its operation. We aim for an increased level of automation in the cell assembly process, because today, a relevant share of the process is still including manual labor.
For that reason, we are now testing robots, like the guys here in Nucera purple on the left, in our assembly lab, in order to consistently provide the highest quality and also to increase efficiency, so lower cost per unit, as well as overall to decrease the cycle times. To successfully implement our growth strategy, we also need sufficient manpower. Robots alone will certainly not get us there. Therefore, I'm happy to say that we also made visible progress in that area. Overall, we were able to attract many new talents. At the end of September, we had 675 employees on board. This means that we have grown by around one-third in just one year, and today, almost 750 people already work for Nucera. We also continue to actively press ahead with our geographical expansion plans.
We recently opened an office in Mumbai, in India, which help us in both the chlor-alkali and also the alkaline water electrolysis business. The hub in Mumbai will predominantly support our global activities in the areas of engineering and project execution, especially in the Middle East, Asia, and also Australia. In Mumbai, we started out with around 30 employees, and expect to have more than 60 until the end of this fiscal year, making this location one of nucera's fastest-growing international offices. Also, around ESG, important steps were taken in the past financial year. At thyssenkrupp nucera, we strongly believe that a responsible and sustainable approach to business is not only essential for the well-being of our planet and communities, but also a fundamental driver of long-term value creation.
We worked intensively on our sustainability strategy, knowing that with our electrolyzer technology for the production of green hydrogen, we are a key driver for the decarbonization and sustainability of global industries. For us, anchoring our ESG goals into our core corporate management processes is one of our top priorities. This is intended to ensure effective measurement, management, and external ESG reporting, and to reduce the scope one and two footprint of thyssenkrupp nucera to zero in the long term. Key measures includes continuously reducing emissions across the entire product life cycle, from production, product development to manufacturing, and then further to recycling. Ensuring the health and safety of employees, using responsible sourcing practices across the supplier network, and implementing strict governance standards, including diversity, transparency, and accountability.
We will present our ongoing activities in this field at various touchpoints throughout the next quarters, and specifically with an ESG report in accordance with the GRI standard for financial year 2023-2024. From financial year 2024-2025 onwards, we will then report and publish an integrated financial and ESG report according to the European Sustainability Reporting Standard. Ladies and gentlemen, before we move on to the financial section, I would like to take a brief moment to recap the value proposition of thyssenkrupp nucera and how we win in this marketplace. We are the leading industrial scale electrolyzer technology provider, with a high-growing alkaline water electrolysis business alongside an established and also profitable chlor-alkali business. Our competitive edge is built on experience.
We have decades of experience in delivering reliable and high-performance electrolysis technology at industrial scale, and in building a network of supply chain relationships and aftermarket services. We also have well-established and strategic partnerships with both suppliers and customers, giving us a crucial head start over smaller electrolyzer companies and new entrants. We have a global presence with a network close to our customers, and we continue to actively press ahead with our geographically expansion plans. We will rigorously pursue our growth strategy to expand our electrolyzer capacity to drive the shift in the energy mix away from fossil fuels towards sustainable energy sources, such as green hydrogen. Our robust financial position, which was significantly strengthened by the IPO proceeds, allows us to do so, and it is also seen as a differentiator in our industry.
Lastly, we do not only have the largest contracted order backlog, but also a sustainable pipeline ahead of us, where we are very confident of winning further orders. With that, I will hand over to our CFO, Arno Pfannschmidt, to provide you with an update on our financials and outlook. Arno, over to you.
Thank you very much, Werner. A warm welcome also from my side. I would like to outline the key developments in our financial figures, looking at the fourth quarter and the full year, 2022-2023. Afterwards, I will provide an outlook for the new fiscal year. Ladies and gentlemen, in the fourth quarter, thyssenkrupp nucera demonstrated once more a strong performance and showed further progress to deliver on its growth strategy. While order intake came in below previous years' level, reflecting usual fluctuations, it is important to keep in mind that the order from H2 Green Steel is yet to be reflected in the order intake in full. Like Werner mentioned earlier, we will see a significant portion of that already in quarter one, 2023-24.
Group sales grew by 47% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year, driven by the ongoing execution of our substantial AWE order backlog. In EBIT, we recorded a year-on-year increase of EUR 6 million for the quarter, driven by strong operational performance, non-recurring effects, and a favorable order mix. Also, in the fourth quarter, we recorded a significant cash in, thanks to the proceeds of our IPO in July. On page 17, we have a more detailed look on order intakes. In the fourth quarter, order intake reached EUR 79 million, 35% below the corresponding prior year figure. Order intake of both chlor-alkali and the green hydrogen business was below previous year, reflecting usual fluctuations. On a full year basis, order intake of the chlor-alkali business reached a record high with EUR 408 million, 10% above the prior year figure.
Interest in our chlor-alkali products was particularly high in North and South America. In contrast, order intake for the group declined by 54% to EUR 613 million. The year-on-year decline was as expected, due to the lower order intake in the AWE business. In the previous year, we had reached a record level for AWE, which had been dominated by the NEOM project in Saudi Arabia. In the fiscal year 2023-2024, we expect order intake to grow significantly, driven by the 700 MW H2 Green Steel project and the successful conversion of capacity reservation agreements. The order backlog at the end of September 2023 stood at around EUR 1.4 billion, with the alkaline water electrolysis business contributing around EUR 0.9 billion. Now, diving into our sales development on page 18.
In the fourth quarter, sales increased by 47% to EUR 159 billion, driven by the ongoing execution of our AWE order backlog. In chlor-alkali, sales came in almost at the same level as prior year. Here, the growing new build business was offset by lower service sales. Looking at the financial year 2022-2023, we recorded an accelerated increase of group sales. High growth in the green hydrogen sector boosted sales by 70% to EUR 653 million. The sixfold increase in the alkaline water electrolysis business was mainly driven by the projects in Saudi Arabia and the Netherlands. In the chlor-alkali sector, sales came in at EUR 330 million, roughly on prior year's level.
Overall, we continued to grow the business, proving that we are on the right track, and we also expect strong sales growth in the new financial year. Moving to the EBIT development on page 19. In the fourth quarter, EBIT turned out slightly better than what we had expected. EBIT reached EUR 4 million, compared with -EUR 3 million in the previous year. This was driven by strong operational performance, one-time effects related to year-end closing and favorable order mix. EBIT for the full year increased by EUR 15 million to EUR 24 million. This corresponds to an EBIT margin of 3.6%, compared with 2.3% a year earlier. The main driver for this pleasing development was the acceleration in AWE sales, an improved project mix, and successful project execution.
These positive developments were only partly offset by higher costs for organizational capacity expansion for future growth. Compared to previous year, this was supported also by lower expenses for the spin-off of thyssenkrupp nucera in preparation for the IPO. As we have communicated before, these ramp-up costs are expected to accelerate during 2023, 2024, which will temporarily impact profitability. I will shed more light on this in a moment. Let's first finish with the developments of the past financial year and take a quick look at the performance of the geographical segments. Key highlights to note include the performance of the segments Germany and Italy, both in quarter four and the full year. Please keep in mind that the segment Germany serves mainly customers located in Europe and the Middle East.
Thus, sales were driven, especially by the progress made with the projects in the Netherlands and Saudi Arabia. The performance of the segment Italy is particularly to be seen in connection with the projects in South America and Sweden. Moving to the net result on page 21. In addition to group EBIT, the financial result also improved, mainly due to the interest earned on our strong cash position. As a result, earnings before taxes reached EUR 34 million, EUR 24 million above the corresponding prior year figure. Deducting income taxes, net income amounted to EUR 22 million, an increase of EUR 60 million compared to the previous year. Earnings per share increased accordingly, from EUR 0.06 to EUR 0.21. We have mentioned our very solid balance sheet already, and on page 22, we wanted to show the year-on-year development.
On top of an already strong and very positive cash position, the IPO proceeds were added, which led to an increase in net financial assets to EUR 761 million at the end of the last fiscal year. With these funds available, we will finance our strong growth in the AWE business, and as a company, we are well-capitalized to leverage from the opportunities ahead. I will go into more details on what that means for us in the short and mid-term on the next page. Let me briefly confirm our planned use of proceeds, because we are getting that question frequently. We will use big parts of the primary proceeds of EUR 526 million to finance our strong growth in green hydrogen and the corresponding CapEx and R&D.
As previously disclosed, EUR 300 million-EUR 500 million in the four-year period until 2025-2026 will go into automation and serial fabrication, strengthening and widening of our supply chain, and the technology development. I don't want to make it too complicated at this point, but just to give you an idea, automation and serial fabrication, as well as the supply chain, will see higher share of CapEx compared to technology developments, where the R&D share will be higher. Werner has shown to us the assembly lab, which is a real great example, by the way, because every improvement in cell assembly will lead to better cost efficiency and higher capacity. Other use cases are, for example, improvements we try to achieve with regards to our 20 MW module, the development of the next generation of electrolyzers, and also the production of half shells.
Lastly, maintaining our strong financial position is of great importance. We are well-capitalized, and with that, we meet the requirements of our business partners for industrial scale projects. In light of the economic conditions expected at the time of the forecast and the underlying assumptions, let me now present you the outlook for the fiscal year 2023-24. We expect a significant increase in group sales in the mid-double-digit % range compared to previous year. The execution of already contractually agreed AWE projects is expected to be the major driver here. As previously stated, we assume AWE sales in the range of EUR 600 million-EUR 700 million in financial year 2023-24. Given the growing nature of our business, we expect the later quarters in that business year to be higher in sales as the earlier ones.
But there is also some volatility among the quarters due to the applied revenue recognition logic, which is percentage of completion. For group EBIT, we expect a negative figure in the mid-double-digit million EUR range. As we have communicated before, gross margin and % of sales will be lower in the financial year 2023-2024, due to a change in the order mix for both chlor-alkali and AWE. In chlor-alkali, we will have a higher share of new build projects, which come with a lower margin. And also, for the strong growing AWE business, we calculate with lower margins compared to the previous year, due to the higher sales share of the NEOM project. On top of that, we plan with a significant increase, especially in research and development expenses and higher administrative and selling expenses, for the implementation of the growth strategy and the organizational buildup.
Ladies and gentlemen, let me reiterate that this negative EBIT is only temporary and a result of necessary startup costs. It is in line with the implementation of our growth strategy and the scaling of our business, and it will sustainably improve our competitiveness and profitability in the long term. With that, I hand back to Werner, who will summarize our full year update.
Well, thank you, Arno. Yeah, wrapping up this full year earnings call, I would like to reiterate some of our key messages. The past fiscal year, 2022-2023, was a very successful one for thyssenkrupp nucera. First of all, from a financial perspective, we grew sales and earnings strongly. We have seen a more than sixfold increase in alkaline water electrolysis sales and a record high in chlor-alkali order intake. At least equally important is the progress in our operations, where I'm especially proud of our colleagues and the entire organization. Project execution is well on track. We have produced and delivered the first modules, and we will prove in 2024 that these modules will be as reliable as everyone expects them to be. And that's also, of course, in the light of our decade-long experience in chlor-alkali.
Also, our organization has made tremendous steps forward, which first and foremost was demonstrated with our IPO. Many smaller, but not less important, steps forward were taken and will make us even more effective going forward. That brings me to my last point. In the current financial year, we will continue to grow our business strongly, and as Arno explained, this will lead to a dip in earnings. But it is—it also comes with a very clear conviction to reach EBIT break even for the AWE business in the financial year 2024-2025. Let us not forget our strong pipeline that will fuel future growth and our strong balance sheet that will fund that growth. With that, I can very confidently say that we are in a great position to leverage the huge opportunity in green hydrogen, and everyone in our organization is fully committed to that.
Thank you for your attention, and we now look forward to receiving your questions.
Okay, the first question comes from Michael Kuhn.
Yes. Good morning, everyone. A couple of questions. Maybe firstly, starting with deliveries. You mentioned CF Industries and that the module is about to start operation in the first quarter. Looking at the other smaller projects you've worked on over previous quarters, how many modules would you expect to start operation over the upcoming months?
Yeah. Hi, Michael, this is Werner. Thank you for the question. As mentioned, for CF Industries, it is planned that this one module will start up in spring 2024. As you also were rightfully mentioning, we have a couple of other projects that will start off, or where we believe that start-up will happen during the first half of the year, of the next year. Which is the one module that we have in Saudi Arabia that is also expected to start in the next half year. And also the modules that we have supplied in the U.S. to Arizona, to Air Products.
These modules are also expected to start up within this year. Apart from that, also in South America, with Unigel, the three modules are expected also to go into commissioning within this year as well. So-
This year means 2024.
This year, I mean, sorry, I'm already in 2024, so, you know, of course, in 2024. All of what I was saying actually is certainly for 2024. And along with that,
Financial 2023, 2024.
Financial year 2023, 2024. Yeah, that's correct. But as none of those have already now reached start up, all of them will be starting up in 2024, in the calendar year 2024.
Okay. Thank you very much. Then, one comment was made on H2 Green Steel, where you said EUR 100 million of order intake were booked this month, and, then I think you said another 60% was still to be booked. So, is that—does it mean that like EUR 100 million or a good EUR 100 million is roughly equivalent to 40% of the contract value?
We had already booked in quarter three a small amount, and we said that this is overall less than 10% of the total contract value. So, you have to take also this into account.
All right. Okay. But you're not willing to share the actual contract amount?
Right.
Okay.
It's not the most difficult calculation in the world, I would believe.
Yeah, yeah. No, no, for sure. One more on the pipeline of actively pursued projects, where the number of projects actually came down, the overall volume and contract value actually up. Obviously, you cannot name specific contracts or projects, but can you give us an idea, let's say, how the pipeline evolved over the past three months and what significant changes you saw in the market?
Yeah, I'm certainly happy to do that. I mean, it's, of course, obvious. I mean, if you look at our substantial pipeline, as you were saying, it remained from the sheer number of projects, pretty stable. But if you look at actually the potential contract value or the, the size, the aggregated size, actually, it has grown quite significantly. Reason for that is, of course, that this is actually not a, if you want, stable picture. It is a very dynamic, a dynamic pipeline actually, that we are also actively managing.
As such, there were projects actually that were discontinued in our pipeline, so we took them out of our pipeline, and other ones actually made it through the different development gates into the pipeline. The ones that made it into the pipeline were considerably larger than the ones actually that were getting out of our pipeline. As such, basically, the number did not increase, but with that, the potential contract value and the size of the project overall increased. That was also true for the actively pursued projects or the projects actually that we are really actively working on.
You see, it's also more or less a stable number of projects, but also here, the values increased significantly, which means that there are now larger projects that made it actually into also our actively pursued project pipeline.
Great, thank you.
Maybe-
And then, last one. Sorry.
No, I was just, you know, I think that maybe also important to mention is that a considerable amount of those larger-scale projects actually that are now in the pipeline are coming from the North American area.
Excellent. That was actually one I was about to ask, because there was, yeah, plenty of discussions lately about how quickly we would see the ramp up in the hydrogen industry in the making. There were discussions in the U.S. about the IRA and the implementation rules. So, looking at the environment at the tool set of available subsidies, et cetera, is now everything in place, or are we still waiting for major measures? And what, let's say, dynamics we should expect over the upcoming quarters and what progress have we made as of late?
Yeah, you have potentially, I mean, you obviously followed also the discussion in the U.S., and you, with that, you certainly also are aware that the legislation around the IRA is still not finalized. I think that they are now in the, you know, talking about the last 5%, if you want. So we would expect that this is finalized now very soon. In Europe, we have also seen a considerable movement with RED III, also with the Net Zero Industry Act and the Hydrogen Bank, which we see actually as a very positive development and also signal to the market, which should going forward also further increase the dynamic in the market.
That's at least our expectation, and that is actually what we also can see in our project pipeline so far. Maybe just one more comment on that. In particular, when it comes to, yeah, what we have also heard a lot, actually, with projects that are delayed. We are very actively actually selecting projects which make it to our pipeline. We deliberately look at the maturity grade of those projects, and along with that, certainly also how concrete and how substantial they are in their efforts actually to mature.
We typically see projects which are developing, if you want, a complete ecosystem, including also offtake, who are moving very much faster than the ones actually that typically do have to look for offtake still, which certainly has an impact on the bankability of such projects. That is maybe why, other than maybe our peers, we are not so negative about the development in the market, because the project that we see in our pipeline we don't see really substantial delays right now, and we are very confident that we will be able to grow as we have planned and expected.
Excellent. Thank you very much, and merry Christmas, everyone.
Yeah, thank you. Same to you.
Okay, the next question comes from Deepa Venkateswaran.
Thank you. This is Deepa Venkateswaran from Bernstein. I have a similar question, and here I'm not talking about peers, but I'm talking about your key supplier, De Nora, who also in their nine months call, you know, talked about lowering their revenue guidance for 2025 as they see a slower growth guidance. Obviously, given that there's a very strong relation between their revenues and your revenues, I was just wondering if you are able to reconcile your view that things haven't really changed compared to your expectations at IPO, whereas De Nora seems to be going a bit softer. Could you please comment on that? Thank you.
I'm certainly happy to do that. Hi, Deepa, this is Werner. Good to have you on the call. So, very quickly, of course, you know, I'm certainly, I'm sure you can understand that we are not commenting on anyone else in the market, actually, doing statement on how they are doing and what they are planning for. So I can also not do that for De Nora, of course. What is very clear is actually, when it comes to our own growth expectations and plans, we are very, very well aligned with De Nora. We have to, of course, because they are part of our supply chain and as such, basically, here, we have a very synchronized planning.
You certainly also know that we are not the only customers of De Nora, so they also have other customers, and we have, actually, of course, no knowledge of any developments with those customers, and that—but that might have been actually the reason why they have started to soften the expectations. I can only say from our perspective, we are very confident that our growth plans and the project pipeline that we have is very solid... and will progress and move ahead as we are expecting that.
And you can also see actually from the development of our reservation agreements that there are also very, very concrete projects in the pipeline actually, that we believe we will be able to convert into fully-fledged contracts even in the short term.
Thank you.
You're welcome, Deepa.
Okay, the next question is coming from Kévin Roger.
Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking the time. I just wanted to come back on the commercial pipeline that you presented on slide 9, and the question that has just been asked. So we understand that there has been a lot of change in the project that makes this pipeline, but can you give us the reason for that? Is it related to the economics around the project, the economics on your side, or just the fact that basically the pipeline is so big that you have a lot of optionality? That's the first reason to try to understand why you have such a, let's say, mixed change in the commercial pipeline in three months' time.
Are you now referring to our actively pursued project pipeline?
Yeah, probably, yes, because this is where-
Okay
... basically, the average size is at 550 versus 360, so a lot of change. So what are the big push for that? The economics of the project-
Yeah
... the economics on your side? What makes that?
Well, well, actually, the push is very much coming from, from the market and from the, from the project side. We continuously evaluating the projects that we have in our pipeline, and that's assessing them actually, in terms of, their maturity and concreteness. And that is certainly driving actually here, this snapshot out of our system that you see here in, in this, pipeline chart. Which certainly means that... And that is very much in line actually with our, own, strategy and our focus, that we are, you know, actively also, selecting and pushing those projects actually, which are large scale. Why? Because we, this is basically our sweet spots.
We believe that we are very competitive in the field of industrial scale, large-scale projects. Of course, actually, we are actively selecting also those projects as the ones that we want to grow with, and that that we want to further develop together with our clients. That explains actually why we have such an increase in the average project size from 360 now to 550, because we are actively selecting those projects as well. When it comes to the contract value, I think you know, I stay with the comment that I have made already. This is in fact also an expression actually of that project sizes, which are obviously growing now substantially.
They have to, because that is actually the only way to reach levelized cost of hydrogen actually in which is competitive. You need large-scale projects for that. And that's certainly something that we see more and more being reflected also in our project pipeline. And with that also, contract value and the average and aggregated sizes have significantly increased.
Okay, okay, understood. And as a follow-up, you just mentioned that two-thirds of those projects are expected to be sanctioned over the next two years maximum, with a big scope in North America. But I guess North America is notably related to the IRA, as we just mentioned. We have seen that on carbon capture, basically, a lot of people appear to be, let's say, waiting for the next election with potentially some candidates that would push out the IRA, things like that. So what's your view on the hydrogen also? Do you see a kind of break in the development of the discussion because of the election next year?
I think you are referring in particular to the U.S. then, because I don't see that actually-
Yes
... areas of the world. I mean, of course, there is a potential actually that you know with a change in the government after the election that there will be also some changes to those kind of policies. We would not expect them, I would believe, because what we have seen so far actually that the policies that have been put in place were actually bipartisan. So actually all the parties were sort of in agreement and consensus with that. Wouldn't say that there's a big risk that this is changing completely. There could be potential impacts there. Still, we believe that also the outer world so the rest of the world will very much also drive these kind of developments.
You might know that, for example, in Europe, there have been—there are now developments like the so-called CBAM. So the carbon border adjustment mechanism that will be put in place in Europe, which will certainly mean that everyone actually who wants to import green hydrogen or hydrogen into the EU will see carbon taxes actually, depending on the carbon intensity of the production. And that these are mechanisms. I would also believe that will also help actually to further also outside of the European Union, for example, deliver those green hydrogen projects.
So again, I think that, I don't see, that this will be a significant impact depending, on, what we're gonna see in the Euro-- in the, in the US.
... Okay, understood. And the last one for me, clear guidance that you provide on the EBIT for next year. I was just wondering, is there any, let's say, seasonality or things like that, that we play along the year with maybe majority of the losses to incur in H1? Or you would say it would be more, structurally, balanced between Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4?
I've not fully understood. Arno speaking here. If your question was on the splits into the quarters.
Yes. On the EBIT, on the EBIT loss that you, that you provide, is there a kind of phasing, let's say, concentration in H1 or in H2, or kind of very well balanced year with losses that would be, let's say, shared between all the quarters? Just if there is a kind of seasonality or whatever that we play next year.
Yeah. We have on the one hand a development in a growth situation where we would expect relatively higher sales in the second half of the year compared to the first half of the year. So that's a trend, of course, and that would apply, by the way, also for the ramp-up cost that they have indeed an acceleration in the second half of the year. So they would definitely not be split evenly, but they have a higher portion in the second half of the year, in the later quarters.
Okay. Very clear. Thanks a lot for that. Thanks.
Okay, and the next question is coming from Martin Wilkie.
Yeah, thank you. Good morning, it's Martin from Citi. My first question was just to clarify, you talked about two-thirds of your reservation agreements being converted by the end of 2025. Just to clarify, the scope of projects that you, you refer to when you talk about conversion, just so we can think about what the order intake could be over the next couple of years. So that, that's the first question.
Yeah, Martin, I think there was a little bit of a misunderstanding. I was talking with the reservation agreements of those reservation agreements that we have already announced, and which should be known to you. For those, we believe that we will be able to convert them into full contracts in the short term. For you know, the majority of our actively pursued projects, and we're talking here about those 33 projects, where the reservation agreements are still a part of that. That's a different story, of course. Here I was saying that we see that two-thirds of our overall pipeline is actually we believe we'll be able to sign contracts actually within the next 20 months.
So to give you a little bit of a horizon, when we believe those things will happen, and can happen in terms of, contracts. But in general, actually, I cannot tell you, you know, when specifically parts of that, pipeline will materialize, because that's, of course, depending on various factors that, today is very difficult, to estimate.
Okay. Thank you. That's helpful clarification. In terms of the conversion, I mean, you've touched already on things like there's still a little bit of detail on the Inflation Reduction Act to get resolved, but a lot of it's done already. What other dependencies should we be looking out for? Normally, what is the catalyst or perhaps the bottleneck that prevents an order getting booked today? Is it, you know, grid connections for green hydrogen? You know, what is the sort of decision tree before the customer signs a contract, the things that we can look out for that can help us understand when some-
Yeah
... of those contracts might get signed?
Yeah. I think the decision tree is a little bit different for different customer group. In particular, those ones, and this is also where we have our reservation agreements on. The customers, actually, they typically have, you know, they develop their whole ecosystem, so they have their offtake. They want to produce and the hydrogen. For them, it seems to be way easier to come to a bankable project, and with that, basically progress pretty quickly. The ones which do face, I would say, a number of challenges, are certainly, if you want, the project development group of customers, which typically do not have immediately also offtake.
So they need to search for that offtake, which typically have also a couple of, I would say, more technical issues, actually, that needs to be resolved. And they typically are also more dependent on funding, which they need to apply for, that needs to be available, before they basically can even go to the banks and try to reach financial closure. So those are, we would see, the typical obstacles that we also see for projects in the market.
Yep. Okay. Thank you very much.
Sure.
Okay, thank you very much. The next question comes from Marco Cristofori.
Good morning, everyone. A couple of questions, if I may. The first one is on the chlorine business. Last year, and the year just closed, you received a lot of orders. Can this means that, this translate into new building and therefore there will be lower maintenance revenues in 2024, and, this could, translate in a lower profitability in the sector? That's my first question. And, the second one is on EBIT, which was impacted by one-off items. Can you give more color on this, please? Thank you.
I think these questions go to myself. Arno speaking here. So yes, I think you're right regarding the chlor-alkali business. Indeed, we have here a mix effect in moving from the last fiscal year to the new fiscal year, 2023, 2024. Indeed, we have a significant higher share of new build sales and less service sales, and that has an impact, indeed, on the margin. And regarding the EBIT one-offs, I would assume you refer to quarter four of the last fiscal year. We had here effects like foreign exchange effects coming from the derivative re-evaluation, which were positive. We have here a reversal of provisions, which were re-estimating the cost to come for projects which had been completed.
So where the risks did not realize, so-called provision releases. And we also had here inventory effects. All the three of them were positive and kind of unexpected, and that was also the main reason why, contrary to our guidance, where we had expected a low minus result in quarter four, we now show a low positive result.
Can you quantify the amount of the one-off?
Yes, I would say it's a mid-single-digit million EUR amount.
Okay, thank you. And if I may, another question, and is mostly on North Africa. It seems to me that can be an attractive area for green hydrogen, particularly for the low cost of renewables in the area. So just to know if you have any plan to develop in North Africa. Thank you.
Yeah, just Marco, thank you for the question. Just very quickly, I mean, we always said, and we stay with that, that in the short term, our focus will be on Europe and North America. However, and that was also stated, we certainly, you know, while we are increasing our capacities and while we are also ramping up our organizations, we want to cover also all other key markets in terms of green hydrogen up until 2030. And that would certainly also include North Africa. Currently, we don't see North Africa being developing very quickly.
But of course, they are on our radar screen, and again, you know, in a sequence, actually, we will also look at North Africa, and certainly will be present there as well going forward.
Thank you. Very clear.
Thank you very much. The next question comes from James Carmichael.
Hi, morning, guys. Just a couple of quick ones, I guess, just really sort of going back to the IPO guidance. And I think, you know, you've spoken about still being confident in the outlook, but I just wanted to clarify whether you're happy to sort of reiterate the 2025-2026 revenue guidance that you gave at the IPO, and if that sort of still stands. And then also just on EBIT as well, helpful to get the outlook for this year, but you used—or, FY 2023-2024. Are you still comfortable again, that, you know, that that should reverse, and we should see sort of positive EBIT from FY 2025-2026? Sorry, 2024-2025. Thanks.
Yes, as Werner has mentioned, we are confident to achieve also the midterm ambition and the targets which we had communicated during the IPO.
Okay, great. Great. And then, I guess just one, one very quick last one. Also, you know, interesting to see the automation that you're putting through the factories with, you know, the, the robots doing the bolts, et cetera. How, how, how much of that overall, manufacturing process can be automated? You know, will, will there still be some sort of manual elements left at the end? And, have you done any work in sort of quantifying what that might mean for, for margins over the long term?
Yeah, James, good one. Of course, you know, what you have seen here actually is the cell assembly, the robots. We believe that's a manufacturing process that can be to a very large extent automated, and it's certainly something that we are currently working on. As mentioned, there was quite, I would say, significant amount of manual labor still involved here, and that will certainly improve in terms of cycle times, but also actually in cost per unit quite a lot. Apart from the cells, as you certainly know, we are manufacturing modules in module yards, and you've seen also a picture actually of those module yards.
These are very classical module yards, and of course, also here, we are striving for automation, which is possible because we are also here have repetitive works in the module yards. But by nature of the modules, actually, there's certainly something that cannot be fully automated. I mean, to be very clear on that. Also, the design that we are using for our modules is not fully geared towards fully automated manufacturing. For good reasons, because we were deliberately deciding on using designs and processes actually, which are well known and well established in the industry, and as such, providing high reliability and performance.
Going forward, and we have also, maybe not this time, mentioned several times that we are working on a new generation of Alkaline Water Electrolysis technology that will certainly also feature way more opportunities also for automation of manufacturing. So here we are really looking right at the beginning to for design to manufacturing as well. So that will further help us to decrease the cost of the systems.
Great. Thank you.
Okay, I think there are no further questions left, and I will give the word back to Dr. Werner Ponikwar.
Okay, thank you very much. Then, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your time and also your questions, of course. Maybe we will meet each other on the roads in January together with Hendrik traveling and seeing investors in, I think, the U.S. in January. In case you still have open questions, then please reach out to investor relations, of course. With that, let me conclude today's earnings call. Goodbye, merry Christmas, a happy New Year to everyone here, and all the best, and talk to you soon. Thank you very much.