Good morning from Bremen. This is OHB Bremen. I hope the tone is well and can be received over our analyst conference Q3 nine months results conference. I welcome you here actually with Kurt and Lutz. I was about to say, but Lutz is still in a call and will join us in a couple of minutes. We're very happy to present the nine-month results. I hope you have been able to download it. Martina has put it on the net earlier with the press release and the Q3 report. As always, I'd like to quickly walk you through our slides, explain a little bit the highlights of last quarter. Then, of course, we will open up for Q&A.
We are basically back to a nine-month call here in Bremen with the normal team. Martina will moderate the Q&A session later on. Again, I'll start walking you through the slides. We now put the slides on our own monitor. It's very nice. We can see that business segment overview has a little bit changed. A lot of detailed print, but the reality is that the companies itself has not changed in the three segments: space segment, aerospace, and digital. What you can see is that we try to a little bit explain the content of the three segments. It's work in progress, and I think we will aim for this to be more worked out at our capital markets day in January. Now, Lutz is coming.
Lutz, join us here on the moon. We're already online.
Hello, everybody.
Now the next astronaut has landed.
Yeah.
Very good. I'll just walk quickly through the business segment overview. Of course, if you look at the descriptive part that we have added in the upper part, it's not a big surprise. Being greener, more secure, more connected. Yes, our products, environmental and weather satellites, reconnaissance satellites, space safety missions, telecom and navigation satellites obviously address that market since many years, and just wanna make that point. Stay curious and aspiring is our motto for science and exploration. Yes, that's a big area of activities that we are pursuing since many, many years, and we believe this encapsulates a little bit the products and the content of our space system division. In our aerospace division, access to space is the big topic we're developing with our RFA participation micro-launcher.
We are, of course, since many years, providing into other big launchers, Ariane mainly. Ariane 5 was a big success, now Ariane 6, but also other launchers like SLS, also in the U.S., Blue Origin is a customer. That's a significant part in the aerospace division. Aero engine business from ATP, which is not consolidated, but is a significant participation. That obviously contributes to a resource efficient flying or resource efficient air traffic. The Digital division is described by, of course, establishing secure connectivity, secure connections with our ground systems, with our satellite operations, with the telescopes. A big part that is growing fast is cybersecurity, especially in the rail infrastructure, but also other applications.
Yes, downstream, we are since two years with the digital division very much putting efforts into data analytics, certain applications. That is our aim to utilize more potential out of the data. Again, this is work in progress that will evolve over the next couple of weeks. Thank you. Encapsulates the arc of our activities from, let's say, achieving mission implementation, also flying and transporting satellites into space and then obviously operating that. Another change that has taken place, actually, it became effective on October 1st, so it's not implemented in the numbers that we see for Q3, is that the establishment of the Fuchs Family Foundation has been completed.
The shares are transferred, so my personal shares, my mother's shares, and also from our VOLPAIA holding company, have been transferred to a newly established family foundation. That obviously changes from my perspective things in a legal structure, but not in a day-to-day operation. I remain in control as the chairman of this foundation. Yes, the plan to do that has been explained in the recent calls and conversations. Of course, it's about long-term stabilization of the ownership structure. Yes, we want to make sure that the OHB shares in the Fuchs Family are stable and not interrupted by any unforeseen events.
That is a big success, I believe, and is a good sign for OHB so that we all can focus now on stock price evolution and not legal concerns around that. What has happened in the recent weeks, actually, this has also not happened in Q3, but in October. As you can see here, October 18, we successfully placed the promissory note loan in the volume of EUR 70 million. Maturities are three, five, seven years. It's really a general corporate financing has been the goal of that. We are very thankful to Commerzbank and Landesbank Baden-Württemberg to implement that with us. Has been very positively received. We are stabilizing our debt side.
Of course, we have the syndicated loan in place actually until 2027. We also have taken recently an extension option there. The syndicated loan runs now in its current form until 2027, and this Schuldschein loan secures the group financing in addition to that. This has been a big success. We are obviously adapting, like many other companies, to the uncertainties and, of course, also interest rises. We want to lock this in. This was a very positive placement. The capital markets oversubscribed it significantly. We again, we're very happy that was completed. Now let's obviously focus more on the next weeks on operating and business development topics.
Just to remind, our Strategy 2025 is still in place. Nothing has changed. This is a slide you have seen many, many times, so I don't want to walk you through it. Just the message is we're still pursuing exactly this strategy. We believe this is a good strategy. We believe it's still the right strategy. Everything we see in the markets, we believe, underlines that there are obviously shifts in the markets with regard to commercial projects being more difficult to get financing. Some of the ventures obviously, like always in venture industry, are not successful. We have ourselves also been exposed to that with partners where we had some optimism of implementing space infrastructure and obviously had to learn that they were not fully able to finance it.
still the whole idea of becoming an end-to-end space system provider, we believe is very alive and the right thing for us to do. Focusing in the next couple of weeks, of course, on the institutional business, but this is something we will walk you through in general. A few highlights from the segments, space system. We had a very important contract in OHB Italia. We are really benefiting from the massive investment that Italy is doing in space with the Flyeye telescopes. First batch has been contracted to us, four additional Flyeye telescopes. The first one being developed under an ESA contract since quite some time, will now be finally in full operational mode in Sicily.
These are now four additional ones, and we do expect a couple more to come. Another very important project for us has moved ahead, which is for us, the Hera project, but that is part of the AIDA cooperation between NASA and ESA, Europe and the United States around asteroid protection. Both of these topics are really about space safety, protecting Earth and identifying asteroids from the ground with the Flyeye telescope and of course, preparing mankind that, I mean, of course, in a very early stage against the potential threats coming from asteroids approaching Earth, as partners in Europe with big success that the United States had with its DART mission that really very precisely landed or hit. Landed is not the right word. Hit.
Hit the tiny moon of an asteroid. Didymos has a tiny moon. Didymos is an asteroid, not approaching Earth, but as a test case, and it has a tiny little moon. What I understood actually is that we even have already some data that the circle of this tiny moon around Didymos has been enlarged by 30 minutes. Martina is nodding. This is information that reached us from NASA. We're very happy that obviously our mission, Europe's mission here to fly there and investigate it much closer is very important now, exciting now. We hope, by the way, that this will be completely financed as it has always been intended at the next ministerial conference in two weeks from now. Well, less than two weeks, actually.
More, yeah, more or less two weeks. I will talk about that. We have been able to sell a couple of satellites. OHB Sweden sold two InnoSat platforms to our partner, Satlantis. We're very happy for that to happen. You see the managing director, Bengt Möbius, shaking hands with our customer. That's the fifth mission for that platform. We are now a really successful contender in this product range. Also, LuxSpace was able to sell the new Triton-X platform to SeRANIS. The SeRANIS mission is a mission from Universität der Bundeswehr München. It was a competitive process, actually, on both competitive processes, and we have been able to succeed on both of them.
That makes us very proud that we are really successful in this segment of smaller satellites in the class of 100 kilo. Actually, we had a successful launch there as well, as you can see here. On November 4th, the second MATS, the mid-sized MATS. We had an earlier success with the GMS-T, that was Lutz, when was it? One and a half year ago, maybe, that was launched early.
Launched January 2021.
Yeah. Almost two years ago, now we launched MATS, which is the mid-size, and GMS-T was the smaller version. That was launched on a Rocket Lab launcher in New Zealand a couple of days ago. The satellite works well, and we're very happy that this is a product line that now our Swedish colleagues are really successfully marketing into much broader applications than we thought. By the way, there's another mission going on the Arctic weather and a couple of others. This is a quite exciting thing. A few news from the second segment, the aerospace segment. Here you see the upper stage, the Rocket Factory Augsburg upper stage completely integrated before it was shipped to Sweden for the upper stage test. The campaign is running now.
The stage is in Sweden on the test stand, and hopefully in the next days and weeks, there will be the first test. This is really an exciting moment for Rocket Factory. We proved the engine to work earlier this year with a couple of tests. Now we want this engine not only to run on a longer duration but also, basically, feed it out of the upper stage, the tank system, the propellant system, in a way that is very representative of then, of course, eventually the upper stage flight. Everybody's very excited. Let's see if we can complete that campaign by the end of 2022.
This engine being the same one also for the first stage would also then be tested in the much bigger first stage, let's say mid-next year, in the configuration really at the location of the launchpad. It's exciting times for Rocket Factory Augsburg, and yeah. We can only hold our breath to see if everything goes well, and it's not for sure, not certain, that on a rocket and rocket engine test, everything goes well. We saw many rockets that did this and had difficulties, had delays and failures, and I just want to manage the level of expectation. Testing an upper stage doesn't mean that everything goes smooth. We are all a little nervous and excited. But yeah.
Still, the message is hot fire, hot firing tests on a rocket means there is a real program that moves on to orbit soon. Again, if you look to the early days even of rockets like SpaceX, they also had on their smaller rockets some learning curve and, again, it's better to learn early than to learn late. On Ariane 6, yes, of course, this is also moving on, well. We have delivered our parts of the rocket since a long time now. We have recently signed a very important contract called PHOEBUS together with our partners on ArianeGroup. We are building a demonstrator for carbon fiber reinforced polymer, as it is fully spelled out, CFRP.
Obviously this is about mass saving, and that means that there will be a new upper stage for Ariane 6 in a couple of years that optimizes the performance of Ariane 6. Our fundamental strategy, as this slide proves, is to be on both sides, to be in both camps with the big rockets in the institutional market, with Ariane being a core partner in the Ariane, but of course also have micro-launcher in the low-cost, smaller satellite market. We believe this is a very good footprint to contribute to the rocket and the launching industry. Of course, both of these rockets have not flown yet, so this is a minor little hurdle that we have to make, and we're trying to do this next year.
Here you see a photo of ESA announcing a couple of weeks ago that the first flight of Ariane 6 will take place by the end of 2023. Yes. This is obviously something when ESA and prime contractors, ArianeGroup and CNES for the ground infrastructure, come up with this plan. We are very optimistic, and we are very confident, and we are obviously very supportive. Obviously also very much interested that Ariane 6 launches soon because we are a supplier that wants to deliver into this program, obviously, our parts that we manufacture in Augsburg.
As the quote here is, as Josef Aschbacher said, "Ariane 6 is very important to maintain European independent access to space." As he also says, we are, I can only concur, fully committed to make that happen as soon as possible. Ariane has a strong order book, 29 launches for Ariane 6, so we are very optimistic that this program will soon take off a year from now. Our micro-launcher is around the same time, slot, we believe, that we will see a first launch. 2023 will be an extremely exciting year for our aerospace division. On digital, a couple of updates.
We had another successful turnkey delivery for a big antenna. This one is the one in, actually, it's not on that slide, but I know it's the one in Thailand, the project we worked on since quite some time. Actually, there's on this photo, you don't see it, but you see some jungle around it. There's a much nicer photo where you can see all these green trees around it, and this antenna looking basically 90 degrees to the sky. Thailand is representative of an ever-growing group of countries that is really excited about astronomical science, astronomy in general. It's a market for us. It's a market for our OHB Digital Connect team in Mainz.
As it says here on the slide, world's first capability of a fully automatic system for switching between primary and secondary options.
Operations.
Operations. Basically, what it means is that there's constant innovation in this product range, and we have a very strong export market position because, again, Thailand is a country and a customer that basically selected us because they believe that they got the best service there, and I think they are a very happy customer. Some positive developments in GEOSYSTEMS. We have a new framework contract for our Geo-IT, Bundeswehr operation that's very important for GEOSYSTEMS. Yeah, GEOSYSTEMS, we are very happy, actually, and it has been a very successful acquisition. I looked at the specific numbers. They also have a good year this year. They are maintaining very high profitability. I'm very happy with the GEOSYSTEMS acquisition that we just completed, I don't know, in January.
I think it was January when we finalized it. It shows that.
The three-year framework contract would allow the German forces to more than double the annual revenue with GEOSYSTEMS.
The big thing up on the agenda this month is the ESA Ministerial Council in Paris, November 22nd, 23rd. Of course, it's all about financing the ambitious agenda. As you can see on the quote from ESA, the proposal of the ESA director-general is a total envelope of around EUR 18.7 billion, which is a new record compared to what was proposed three years ago and was decided at Space19+ three years ago. Of course, during these days, there's still a lot of speculation exactly how much money what country will do. We have good signals from all the countries we are operating in that ESA will be successful in implementing its agenda.
Of course, we believe, Germany and also the other countries where OHB companies are active should benefit from it, should participate in it, because I think it proves very much that ESA as an organization is a very successful model for Europe and European countries to participate in the endeavors of space. Still we are making a few calls, and I think, Lutz, the fact that you came a few minutes later had to do with preparing for the ministerial conference.
Exactly.
This is obviously a very important moment in the three-year cycle for us. Yes, what's on the agenda? It's applications. Of course, the main topic is Earth observation. I think it's the biggest single budget again, the biggest budget in the recent years. Of course, we believe Germany will invest. We're absolutely sure other big countries like France and Italy will invest massively in Earth observation and other applications. We work very hard for that to happen. Copernicus program has a next generation coming up. Earth explorer missions are up, like, the one up is the Harmony. We believe also in the future of telecom, there will be investments. The SAGA project, Quantum Key Distribution, is a program we lead in a European consortium.
The big thing we believe will be decided, and we are very hopeful, is the European Secure Communication constellation, a proposal on the desk where we believe, again, also Germany will participate, but also other countries will come in with a significant claim to leadership. Science and exploration. The Cosmic Vision moves on. The missions are implemented. Athena is a mission where we have been very interested in or still are interested in, is moving out a little bit on the timeline. Space safety is a big thing. We talked about Hera, Flyeye, it to be launched also in a cooperation between ASI, the Italian Space Agency, and ESA. What's called enabling and support is basically the rockets.
It's Ariane 6, the independent access to lunar surface, where we work very hard on a European lunar program. Of course, with a sizable lander, hopefully being financed by the European countries, Italy and Germany. EL3 is the name. ElsaS is a project that we lead, and we hope Germany will finance as well. There is a lot of talks going on. We are in many of these programs, and we believe that the European Space Agency needs all the and deserves all the support to make this a successful conference. Military moves on. A lot of proposals on the German special fund, still not much has been implemented so far.
What is, I think, clear after what we have seen in the last eight and a half months is that Germany has to invest heavily in its defense, and this is going on. We believe that this in the midterm will also generate significant opportunities for OHB. Overall order backlog, obviously, as you can see on this chart that you have seen over the years, we're now going at a down period because this is basically defined by a ministerial conference in the sequence of every three year having a peak. That peak hopefully comes after this conference this year and then the implementation of contracts next year. We do believe that by the end of 2023, a year from now, we should have a significantly higher order backlog.
We don't feel very uncomfortable with EUR 1.8 billion. Yes, we used to have higher order backlog. Yeah.
If you look three years ago, 2019.
Similar.
It was 140. Similar thing.
Yeah. This is something we'll track very diligently. Let's look to the numbers after nine months. Yes, order backlog is slightly down or significantly down, just to be fair, over 12 months comparison. Total revenues are up about EUR 700 million. EBITDA up, and we like the fact that profitability grows more than the total revenues. EBITDA up to EUR 68 million. EBIT even up to EUR 41 million. The increase in EBIT is, as you can see, 27%, whereas total revenues only increased 13%. It's even more by earnings before tax, which have been at EUR 40 million, compared to EUR 29 million a year ago, being up 38%.
The big, big message is we are growing, and we are growing much faster on the bottom line than on the top line. This is obviously exactly what we wanted to prove, that we can increase our margins and this is what's going on. We are very happy about the earnings per share being up 38%, because this is really what at the end counts. Slight growth in headcount still. Around 3,000, now it's 3,077. We mainly grow in smaller companies. It's not so much OHB SE or OHB System. I think OHB System even has a slight reduction, and it's the other companies around that that grow. This is also strategically nice because we want to diversify a little bit in our activities.
Yeah, basically those numbers I already walked through. It's a revenue growth that is not as quick as the growth in profitability. The EBIT margin has been at 6%. I remember our discussions about our desire to go to 8%, and I think we are very well on track with 6% EBIT margin compared to 5% where we have been recently. So that's good. Space Systems, slight increase of margin at 5.4%. So we are kind of happy here. Aerospace turnaround moves along. It's good. We're profitable again. That's nice. Obviously still at a small level with the overall volume being only EUR 87 million total revenue, so it's small activity. You have to keep in mind that in this division, significant activities are not in those numbers.
RFA output is obviously not consolidated and also all the activities around aero engine components are not consolidated in those numbers. This is basically MT Aerospace or the MT holding little group of companies. We're on a good way, and we do believe that with the success of Ariane 6 coming soon, MT Aerospace will have a good future. OHB Digital, interesting numbers because they are going down, but this is obviously something that had to do more with where they have been last year. We are still optimistic, and I'm looking for Lutz and Kurt, and we had a debate about that last night, that we will see a double-digit EBIT margin by the end of the year.
Yes.
Obviously what we the number we had last year was very profitable at the beginning, and so it's still by far the most profitable division. We will see good numbers in Q4. We believe this is not a trend that you can see here compared to last year. I guess, Lutz.
No, that's true. I mean, last year we had a very specific impact out of a service project. We delivered service from space with the satellite still being owned by us, so this was very profitable. This year and in particular in the third quarter, there were a few impacts or a few decisions actually, which we did. One is that we have new products and service ready for market. This is why, in particular in Q3, we have spent a lot of money into sales and marketing activities. Have been at major trade shows in Madrid, in Hamburg, in Berlin and so on. That cost lots of money.
As well, for the specific markets, we needed to have ISO 9001 and ISO 27001 certifications in some of these subsidiaries of which we did so. Which we did as well, which has cost money. There were a few special effects in Q3, which actually are preparation for future growth. There was one operational impact which I don't want to ignore as well, and this is that in the cybersecurity area, our growth is that fast that we needed to do some buys of equipment, of EEE equipment, and components outside of the frame contracts which we had. This was a bit more expensive than what we thought. That's cured now because we have increased the frame contracts, so we are safe again.
This was a small operational thing only. The main thing is, as I said, on the sales and marketing side.
Including certification. It's a quarterly impact, it has nothing to do with overall general performance. By the end of the year, digital will be double digit.
Thanks. Yeah. Moving to the guidance and the outlook. Total revenues, and I think you saw it. We are a little bit careful about the guidance on top level on top line with EUR 1.2 billion. This has been something that we are concerned about being able to hit it, and I'm sure in the Q&A session we will talk about it a little bit more in detail. We are explicitly confirming our guidance for EBITDA with EUR 97 million and also with EBIT with EUR 60 million. This means obviously that the margins are developing better than we expected it.
This means that we see ourselves in terms of profitability on a good trajectory to be on the successful path as we anticipated it. Again, I'm sure we'll talk about that and there will be some questions, and Kurt is eager to explain more details on that.
Yeah.
Looking to the balance sheet, not much different here. Still, it's a year, like every year, where there's a long balance sheet at Q3, and we hope to shorten that balance sheet in the next couple of weeks by mainly basically turning contract assets into cash, and this is something that we all work hard on. Also, this is something I think that conversion to cash is something that Kurt will explain a little bit. Other than that, no major changes here on the non-current assets. It's pretty much where we have been last year at the year's end. It over the years hasn't changed, but the current assets have changed significantly in the sense that contract assets have increased.
On the equity side, I guess the big change has been a healthy growth in equity here at EUR 287 million, and of course, we're very happy about that that the equity increases significantly. This is probably a trend that we will foresee also for Q4. We are probably aiming at a equity position in the range of EUR 300 million or something available by year's end.
Yes.
Even more. This is something you can elaborate a little bit on. Other than that, I guess, the problem of the balance sheet is also here, is that the short-term financial liabilities have increased. We have taken our measures to that. We are obviously working very hard to collect money coming in. This is an unpredictable game between now and December 31st. We have a few ideas how this could end, but this is something Kurt knows much better than I do. Here is basically a summary of what I just said. Not very different from where it used to be a year ago. Pretty much, the same in principle.
The net debt is still on a very high level, and we don't like it to be there, but it has moved this way based on a couple of long-running projects that are now entering its final stages. Investment spending is pretty much where it was a year ago. If you can see now, it's not pretty much, it is exactly where it was a year ago, EUR 14.6, EUR 14.6. So basically a stable development here. That probably will also be the case for the full year, I guess, that we have pretty much the level of CapEx there.
Cash flow has been compared to six months results, slightly positive, but compared to last year at this point in time, negative from EUR -83-EUR -129. But this is again, something I guess we have to explain a little bit more in detail. Concluding the overview, I'll just remind you of what's coming up next. We will be this year presenting at the DZ Bank Equity Conference in Frankfurt, and then of course, the Deutsche Eigenkapitalforum also in Frankfurt later in November. Early January, we'll have the ODDO BHF forum, UniCredit Kepler Cheuvreux corporate conference in Frankfurt. A lot of things moving on in the next couple of weeks to explain our story.
The big event is the Capital Market Day in Bremen, January 18, and obviously you're all invited to join us, and I'm sure I'll have lots of updates on the ESA Ministerial Council on a number of programs there. Yeah, and the rest, I guess, is just the regular agenda for 2023. We talked basically more than half an hour, and I'll now turn it over to Martina to moderate our Q&A session.
Yes. We are happy to receive your questions now. If you would like to address it, please raise your hand, and I will allow you as a panelist. First questioner in line is Alexander Hauenstein from DZ Bank. Mr. Hauenstein, good morning.
Good morning. Can you hear me?
Yes, very well.
Perfect. Thank you for taking my questions. I've got a couple of them. Maybe we go one by one. First of all, I'm wondering whether you could shed a bit more light on the profitability in Space Systems in Q3, and what that could actually mean for Q4. How should we think here about the progression? I mean, it was quite strong, a bit stronger than I had expected in this quarter. How strong should we see the fourth quarter here, actually? What are the drivers here potentially?
Yes, sure.
Sure.
Yes, for this question. We had really a good profitability in Q3 in space system area. This has to do mainly with well-running projects in some areas in space system, and some big programs are running better than expected, and the profitability will be better than expected at the year's end. We have less negative impacts from some smaller daughter companies compared to last year. There's a little weak result at Antwerp Space, but all the other companies are running more in line with what we have expected. For Q4, we see or we expect a similar development at the end of the year. We have no major change. We see and we expect further increase in profitability in space systems.
This will lead at the end of the year for the overall group that will be in line with our expectations and in what we have guided in January this year for the whole year, around EUR 60 million EBIT.
Okay, a follow-up on that. Q3 being EUR 13.1 million, so meaning having a similar development in Q4, does that actually mean a similar absolute number or does it mean the trend is even similar, but it might be even further as you probably get a bit more output on the top line?
But at the end of the day. We expect a similar margin, we expect a similar absolute result in EBIT for Q4 compared to the first nine months. That will be at least around EUR 40 million, more than EUR 40 million EBIT, is our expectation actually. The output, as already mentioned in Q4, is a little bit uncertain because this always depends on the achievement of some major milestones in December this year, but it will be also an increase in the output compared to the previous quarters. And this also will lead at the end of the day to, just to say it in advance before the question you will raise, improvement of our cash situation. The cash situation will have a similar development as in all the years, in previous years. We've a substantial improvement in Q4.
The net debt result we actually have, which is pretty high or quite high, will be substantially improved in Q4. This is our expectations for the whole year. But this is quite normal in our business. I think Q4, especially in December, we will have a pretty good cash flow.
Okay, that is understood. When you look at aerospace, the Q3 number was actually a bit fluctuating compared to the first quarters, but these were also quite an uptake and a downward path to Q3 again. I'm wondering, Q4, is that something in between Q2 and Q3, or what is your driver? I understand that you explained a bit why it was a bit less in aerospace, and I understand also that it's getting probably better, but how much will it be better at the end of the day? 'Cause from the path, we struggle to get a certain feeling about Q4 profitability.
Yeah, Q3 has always a problem in each of our segments. That's, there's a lot of vacation time, holiday time, and less productive number of hours than compared to Q2 and Q1. This will be improved in Q4, so that. We see no major other effects in the segment in Q4, but nevertheless, we see we're gonna have at the end of the year an improvement of the result of previous end and also in the aerospace segment.
It won't be in Q4 higher than in Q3, I guess.
Yeah.
Okay, thank you. Coming to digital, you spoke about a two-digit number by the end. Is that an absolute number, I understand? You're talking EUR 10 million, or is that a margin number you talked about?
By the end of the year will be above 10%.
10% full year?
I said above 10%. For the first time since the existence of OHB Digital, we are below 10% this quarter, which I don't like too much, honestly.
Mm-hmm.
On the other hand, it was investing in future business. We took the decision to invest very significantly into sales efforts, sales and marketing efforts this quarter, which brought us to 9.4%. I just stick to it will be above 10% for the full year.
I think what the answer is also in terms of absolute numbers, not far away from that as well, I guess. I mean, if you look at now EUR 96 million, I mean, the implication, the question was implicitly also about a volume question. Are we moving from EUR 70 million to EUR 100 million and then being 10% double digit, or are we moving from EUR 69 million to something very different, I guess? That was also within the question.
Yeah. Yes, yes, both.
Somehow it's above 10 in both cases, because as the
Mm.
It will be above 100%. The 10% will be more than EUR 10 million.
I think this was the confirmation Alexander Hauenstein was asking for.
Yes.
Got it. Okay. Perfect. I know it's difficult to talk about next year, when I look at your guidance on the output side, which has been a bit taken back due to the delays you spoke about and you put on your slides and you explained. Especially in Space Systems, there are some delays and some milestone payments are a bit uncertain whether they will come in Q4. Is it fair to say that if they don't come in Q4, then they will flow into early Q1 2023? That means at the end of the day, 2023 on a full group side will be a bit higher.
Is it the case that due to the whole uncertainty around and all the things which has been developing since you brought out your guidance in January, that you more or less stick to your 2024 three numbers on the guidance side, being on the top line, but also on the bottom line.
Jumping to the questions of the capital market day.
Yeah.
I mean, it is obviously something that between now and mid-December, we are working on the plan, and in mid-December or mid-to-late December, not late December, that's wrong, but mid-December, we are concluding on this planning and verifying it in early January. The bottom line is, and maybe you want to add to that, but it's not so, it's not a stage where we want to go completely public on this. I don't know, Kurt, what you
Yeah, in principle, you are right. Nevertheless, it's correct. It's the remark from Alexander that some of the revenues which we have originally expected in 2022 will flow in 2023. That's obviously the case. For example, the LARES-2 launch did not take place in 2022. What we need to look at in the planning is if there's something moving from 2023 to 2024 as well, because the point is, what we all can see there is the impact of the Ukraine war, or the Russian war in Ukraine, on the launcher situation. This has a major impact. The Soyuz is no longer flying from Kourou. Ariane 6 is not flying when we expected it. So, launchers which were kind of in oversupply in the past suddenly are becoming a rare thing, and therefore, this is really what we need to look at.
It's just an impact which we need to assess in the planning. If it hits as well, some things which were foreseen for late 2023. It's really more to be answered at the capital market day. We are.
For example, as Lutz said, it's really the completion of our Galileo Batch -3.
Yeah.
Also depending on exactly that story. When is Europe able to launch the remaining 10 satellites?
Yeah.
It has to do also with revenue recognition. When are we really delivering all those satellites? I mean, we're putting some in storage, but also the delivery has really suffered.
Yeah. We even have taken satellites back which were already in Kourou, or at ESTEC or so. We need to take them back and store them here. This obviously has an impact. As you have seen, although the top line is not where we intended to be, the bottom line is developing very well.
Yes, I understand that. Nevertheless, I remember a statement from the recent past where you mentioned that these deliveries to Kourou on the satellite side and the delayed start on the other hand were not having any negative effect for you. Now I hear that you're taking some back. Does that have any negative impact, or will you even get paid for that, taking it back and taking it down to Kourou someday again?
Will not have negative impact on the profitability of this program.
There's storage. I mean, storage is something that is a paid service.
Yeah.
Obviously, completing the program has more top-line
Yeah.
consequences. That might be drawn out, and it might be, it will be drawn out because the program, I mean the Galileo satellites will launch later than technically possible because the satellites are all ready. We should have had a launch already this summer. We would be ready to launch more satellites, but this is obviously slowing down because customer does not have the means to launch them because the Soyuz launches are obviously have been terminated from French Guiana and the Ariane 6 launch have been delayed. This results in a situation where we are keeping those satellites here, delaying the final acceptance and storing them. As Kurt said, overall, it doesn't have a negative impact on OHB, but it's a negative impact on the program implementation.
Okay, understood, looking forward to get the update in January. Last question, very quickly on the ministerial conference side. You pointed out on the slides and also on what you told us, a couple of points, which are in focus. Nevertheless, is there anything we can track from the outside in terms of numbers, in terms of news flow, news points, any triggers we could look at, which we from the outside could eventually see and track a bit and do our own analysis or on expectations management here? What has been on the agenda and what actually is coming out? Can we track that or is that impossible for us?
I think it's not that easy because for most of the programs, what the ministry decides is the budget and then competition will follow. There's a few where it's obvious that it's sole source. If the Hera budget is confirmed, which is more or less a certainty, then obviously the money flows to OHB, but that's the minority of things. Most of what you've seen, like SAGA or Harmony or so, will, in the end in a competition which we still have to win. The important thing in 2022 for us is securing budgets which we are interested in, but then we still have to win. If the ministerial conference is very negative.
Obviously there's something which one can derive out of it. That's what we don't hope and don't expect. If it's positive, it keeps our in the capital or at the Capital Market Day, in the outlook, which we will give you for order intake, we obviously will inform you about any change of probability of order intake which we see at the moment. Our current order intake planning for the next years shows numbers which are even after having it made more conservative three times, it still shows numbers which are supporting our growth path, which you see in our strategy.
I think overall what is important is that ESA strives as an organization. Obviously what you will see after the conference are the press releases and the numbers that come out. For us, as you know, ESA is a very, very important customer for the whole industry, actually, the European space industry. Yes, the biggest point is that ESA as such is a successful organization. This is what we really hope for.
Yeah.
I guess the whole industry hopes for. If ESA succeeds in their plans, more or less, doesn't really make a difference as if this program is coming and that program is coming. We are talking about budgets for our core customer, ESA, and hoping that that budget is sizable and as close as possible to the number that ESA was trying to raise.
Which actually would be a very significant increase compared to last time.
Yes.
Yes. The next questioner in line is Harry Breach from Stifel. Good morning, Harry.
Good morning, Martina. Can you hear me?
Yes, very well.
Yeah. Perfect. Great. Good morning, Marco. Good morning, Kurt. Good morning, Lutz. Probably just really simple questions, to be honest. With maybe Lutz, maybe starting with you. Back in August, Lutz, I know I had a feeling that you were maybe not so optimistic about the ministerial and how the budget was shaping up. Do you feel better now about the ministerial, about the budget? And with the number that you kindly put in the presentation, Josef Aschbacher's quote, EUR 18.7 billion, how many years does that cover? Is that a three-year budget?
Next question, if I can, just thinking about, and Kurt, sorry for this is always an impossible question, but thinking about free cash flow for this year with the delay of the SARah launch, should we be thinking that maybe, you know, free cash flow breakeven, maybe a little less would be reasonable? The third question was just about the Ariane first launch delay. Does that have any impact in terms of the cadence of production for aerospace, for Ariane 6, and sort of performance when we think about next year?
Final question is, just in terms of supply chain performance, guys, would you characterize generally your supplier performance as being sort of about the same as it was one quarter ago or two quarters ago, or slightly improving or slightly worse?
Maybe I start off with the Ariane question, then I leave it to Lutz and Kurt. Yes, of course. Being a core supplier, when Ariane 6 launches later, MT manufactures later, that's obviously an impact. Yes, the contracts to go for the next batch of rockets, Ariane 6 rockets that are procured from MT by Ariane Group is delayed because the launches are taking place later. This has an impact. Yes, that's a downside in the MT's business case, and we're doing many things to mitigate that.
If you look at our outlook in the next couple of years on the contribution of Ariane 6, it is much lower now than it was maybe in the planning that we had two years ago when we anticipated the launch to be the first launch and the ramp up to be much earlier. Yes, that's an impact. I don't know who wants to jump in on the other questions.
Yeah. As a cash situation, as already mentioned from my side, there will be a substantial improvement in Q3 or Q4. That's always the case in Q4 and in December especially. Your assumption, it's really hard to say what is the real end, the cash flow at the end of this year. Nevertheless, your assumption, Harry, to be around breakeven or slightly negative or slightly positive is in principle correct. That's what my expectations for the free cash flow at year's end. Concerning your question for the supply chain, on the one hand, in the space system area, we see some influence through this delayed delivery of some EEE parts which lead again to some delays in some projects.
This has some impact, but in general, I must say, the performance of our major subcontractors and major suppliers are affected, but not in an absolutely substantial manner or way.
Perhaps adding to that, when it comes to short-term supply, that's what we faced this quarter in cybersecurity, because actually we are growing faster in our cybersecurity solutions for digital rail than what we even expected. Sometimes it's getting a bit more difficult and you need to pay more. But overall.
We have such long-term relationships, frame contracts, and so on, that even in the more serial business, I mean, in digital, we are speaking about thousands of equipments which we deliver. That's a bit unusual for a space company, but we are doing that. Even there we are well covered and no big issues. Ministerial conference, Harry, sorry when you perceived me as being depressive in August. Actually, honestly, we had a bit an issue with the German position at that point in time. Obviously the German one is very important for us. This mainly because we have a government which goes through its first ministerial conference and started a bit unstructured and uncoordinated. This has obviously been seen in the government as well.
Recently, the preparation for the ministerial conference has been taken through the chancellor's desk personally. He himself is now taking all the different ministries together and is coordinating the preparation effort for the ministerial conference. There's another meeting on his level before the conference, which is actually in less than than two weeks. I'm If I would have had looked very pessimistic at that point in time, which hopefully I did not, but I can tell you I'm looking much more optimistic now. We see as well that other nations in which we are present will be very strong, Italy, for example, and we will benefit from that. Yeah, quite an optimistic look.
The second thing is there has been quite a good alignment between some of the space agencies of different nations and the industrial setup which we had chosen. I think we were a bit lucky to set our priorities in expectation of what the agencies would do in the right way. I take one example, which is the large lunar lander, the EL3, or now with a new name, Argonaut, where for long Germany stated, "we will need to be in the lead," and so on. We actually believe that likely at the end they will not be. We entered in a consortium with an Italian partner in which we have a very, very significant role.
It turns out that the agencies agreed that, between Italy and Germany, that Italy shall be in the lead and Germany shall be the first follower, which fits exactly to our industrial consortium and to no other industrial consortium which we know. Partly we were a bit lucky as well, that we prepared ourselves for the right scenario, we believe. Looking from today's perspective, that's what I mean as well when I look at our order intake planning, we have good reasons to be confident that our growth path will be supported.
If I can ask just specifically back on supply chain? I think Thales had mentioned recently semiconductor supply issues for TAS. Has OHB System AG seen any issues with, you know, on-time delivery for semiconductors?
As mentioned, there are some issues, but actually it's not so significantly. There are issues which lead to some delays, as mentioned, in our programs in few months, in some projects. This is also the reason why we are considering our statement of the total revenues for the whole year, that people believe that we will be a little bit under the expected EUR 1.2 billion for this year. But we see no absolutely substantial impacts. There are some, but no substantial that would jeopardize our profitability and that would jeopardize, as mentioned, the total revenues and the development of total revenues. As far as I know from the Thales colleagues or Thales Alenia Space colleagues, the main impact they are facing is in the area of digital payloads for telecom satellites.
Telecom for them plays a role as big as Earth observation does for us. Each company has a bit of center of gravity in different areas. TAS is one of the worldwide market leaders in telecom satellites, and telecom satellites are particularly hit by this shortage. It's a bit different situation in TAS than in OHB.
Yeah, that's really helpful. Sorry guys, at the risk of being even slower on my side than usual. When we think about the exogenous factors that you speak about in the press release in relation to the revenues maybe being a little below what you expected. Are those exogenous factors mainly linked to sort of prime contractor delays on their programs and launcher delays? Is there anything I'm missing at all?
No, that's the main factor. As you just mentioned. That's all at the end of the day.
Thank you. Thanks everyone.
The next contribution will come from Richard Schramm from HSBC. Good morning, Mr. Schramm.
Yes, good morning. Also Prem, I have a quick follow-up on this shift in projects you signaled for the current year. I didn't get it right if this really has now an impact on the earnings development as well, or if this is just more or less a non-event. Because to me it seems that this shift is very neutral. It's happening on the top line, but looking at your improved profitability for the nine months and your confirmed earnings guidance suggests that this has no impact here on the earnings side and for the current year. Does this mean that we then also should not become more positive for next year when these contracts then are finally invoiced?
Is this really only a top-line matter but nothing happening on the EBIT levels?
In principle, it's a top-line matter, but for the next years it's really too early to say something definitive. Because we have also to consider for the next years the increase in energy prices, for example, which will obviously have an impact on profitability and things like that. Also the inflation will have some impact maybe in the profitability for next year. This is under investigation, and we are just in the planning phase for our business plan for the next years. We'll provide details about that during our capital market day in January.
What we should perhaps say is that we have launched a productivity improvement program. Because we see these factors, we see more inflation, which we'll see in wages and energy prices and so on. We intend to counter this by internal measures. Program is running. As Kurt said, the planning will be done in the next weeks, and we will inform at the capital market day. Clearly we are not just witnessing the evolution as it comes. We have already reacted since a few months now already with the productivity improvement program, so that we can hopefully mostly counterbalance at least these effects. Beyond this, capital market day.
There may be also some support concerning the inflation development from our customers.
Customers, yeah.
Or Marco Fuchs is in discussion for, especially ESA or other customers and we will maybe that we get some support. It's not clear. It's uncertain actually, but there's a possibility also that we will get some help from them.
Because these organizations of course historically have inflation mechanisms, and they are obviously now dusted off because it hasn't been used since decades. Now people are going back to how to deal with the unpredictable inflation in multi-year contracts. Again, this used to be the case in, I don't know, the eighties and the nineties. This is now reemerging as a topic. As Kurt said, yes, of course, customers like ESA go back to those rules. This is something obviously industry at large is very interested in actually also depending on. I guess we will see all over the economy for companies that sign contracts that are multi-year. We will see this as a topic reemerging in a way that we couldn't imagine 12 months ago.
Yeah. Thank you. That was actually my second question already, but you have answered it, because the CEO from Thales also said that ESA so far had no indexing in their contracts while it was more or less fixed price contracts they had. You expect this to change now in light of the current inflationary environment, so that there might be a, for new contracts kind of, indexing or compensation component.
No, I think it's not correct to say there's not, it's not existing. It does exist. Maybe not in the individual contracts, but in the overall set of regulations it does exist. It just needs to be basically re-understood and applied again. These rules are all dating back to the seventies, eighties, when ESA was starting to do business. Yes, of course, at that time we did have inflation. Yes, of course, at that time we also had multi-year contracts, long-term contracts. There is such a set of rules. We again have to apply it again, and it will be applied. Yes, I can confirm what Kurt said. The industry as a whole is debating that with the customer side and on many levels.
Again, it's unpredictable exactly how the outcome is. It's obvious that a high inflation, actually we call this hyperinflation. A hyperinflation situation on long-term programs is an issue that I think the whole world has to deal with, by the way, not only in Europe. I'm sure everywhere.
Yeah.
Where you have inflation, these topics are debated. I'm sure the American companies have similar debates and similar provisions somewhere. Of course, it changes the budgeting because you need more money to address that, and obviously money has to come from somewhere. That's obvious. Yes. On the other hand, obviously governments have more money available. It's a system that works everywhere.
Okay. Thank you.
Now we will have a call-in user who I'm not able to identify. My guess is it is Mr. Rutscha from [audio distortion] Securities. Good morning. No, it's not. Okay, I think we will continue with the next one I'm able to identify. This is Aymeric Poulain from Kepler Cheuvreux. Good morning, Aymeric.
You're still on mute.
Yeah. Can you hear me now?
Yes.
Yes.
Yeah, good morning, for taking my question. I just want to double down on this, the funding side of the business. Do you see, given the rise, very significant rise in interest rates, a change in behavior regarding the financing by, you know, the main institutions or even on the private sector for your project? Do you see an evolution in that funding process, especially working capital cycle, given the burden of higher interest rate? On that, I was curious to see how is your cost of funding today? You just raised money. You said EUR 70 million in the private placement.
What was the cost of borrowing you managed to get from that placement? Just to get a sense of yeah, the funding issues.
That's all the introduction. Of course, we see it now, mainly on private initiatives. Yes, the cost of capital is a significant part of financing a very long-term investment like satellite constellations, for example. Yes, of course, the space industry at large is impacted by higher interest. The valuations are lower, the inflow of capital has changed. I believe that makes the other ventures more risky, and it highlights the importance of a business model that has also a strong pillar of institutional business, because we believe that the institutional business is more robust in that sense. Obviously, also on institutional decisions, there is uncertainty, as we have discussed earlier with the ministerial conference.
I believe the ministerial conference in Europe is an important, also psychological mark. If Europe is able or if the European member states are willing to finance space even in times of high inflation and high interest rates. This is, I think, for some period of time, a very important moment to see if that's the case. I hope it's recognized by governments how important that issue also is. I'll put up the money raising for you. Maybe it's time for you to go back on the phone. Thanks.
It's obviously the case that first for our Schuldschein loan and also for this short-term loan. We are significantly due to the increased interest development in the market and due to the interest that's taken from the European Central Bank in the last few years as we are today. There is also some impact next year on it. We expect no reduction of interest rates next year. This will also have some impact on our financial result for next year and for this year. For this year, not for next.
The cost of the short-term loan?
Yes. The cost of short-term loan outside the interest rates were pretty low. Just not a substantial amount.
The interest? I mean.
The fee we have paid for the interest, for the Schuldschein loan.
For the Schuldschein loan.
rate increase was at the end of the day the two components, the EURIBOR for six months we have to consider and the margin on it, the interest margin from the bank was pretty low. We have achieved really good results. It was between 120 and 160 basis points for the margins on top of the EURIBOR. This is on the left side of the expected and on the low end of the initial indicated term sheet margin amounts.
Thank you.
Okay. Since I do not see further questions, I would like to conclude the Q&A session by thanking everybody for the active participation and hand over again to Marco Fuchs.
Oh, thank you. Thanks, Martina. Thanks, everybody. Thanks for your time and the questions. I think we're in exciting times in the space industry and, of course, the European space industry and here at OHB also. I think what you could see is the evolution of the company from its business model perspective is paying off. I think we have been able to recover our space significantly. I think we are still on a very profitable path and the strategic right decision to implement the digital sector. Space Systems now is moving to a next cycle in terms of the ESA business. I believe we have been very wise to be conservative with our overall business model focusing on institutional business.
We do see, I guess, a very changed big picture with regard to security, with regard to defense, with regard to the whole issue of how to protect and how to maintain critical infrastructure for Europe. I think this has been a major positive point. If I look back a year ago, we were all debating taxonomy issues, if this industry is analyzed, but this is all off the agenda. I think on a very big picture, I think space is doing very well in Europe. Now let's hope to see a successful ministerial conference and then moving into 2023, also more and more programs being established.
I'm very optimistic about the outlook, and I thank you all for your continued interest in OHB, and I hope to see you all in person then latest at our capital market day, January 18, or in between at these four main investor conferences that we just have talked about and introduced. Again, thanks very much and thanks for your interest. If you have any questions, of course, feel free to call either Martina or any of us here on the stage. Thank you and have a good and successful day and week. Thanks.