Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining the analyst and investor call regarding the Porsche AG Q1 2025 results. This call is being hosted by Dr. Jochen Breckner, Member of the Executive Board for Finance and IT. During the intro statement at the beginning of our call, all participants will be in listen-only mode. After the intro, we will jump to the Q&A session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Björn Scheib, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you very much, and welcome to our analyst and investors call on the first quarter of 2025. My name is Björn Scheib, and I'm the Head of Investor Relations here at Porsche AG. With me is Jochen Breckner, member of the Executive Board for Finance and IT, and Jochen will now give you an update on our first quarter, our strategy, and the outlook for the fiscal year 2025. Before we begin, let me remind you that any forward-looking statement to be made during this intro statement is subject to the risks and uncertainties mentioned in the safe harbor statement included in the Porsche Materials Online. This call will be also governed by this language. With that, Jochen, I hand over to you.
Björn, thank you, and thank you for joining us for our analysts and investors Q1 2025 call. As you've seen in our statement yesterday evening, we keep resolutely pushing ahead with intensifying our extensive strategic rescaling and recalibration measures. At the same time, our business performance is continued to be impacted by the increasing economic and geopolitical challenges, as well as a further deteriorating BEV transformation in the luxury segment. As a result, we have decided upon further measures. As a result of the slower ramp-up of electromobility, we decided a strategic realignment of battery activities. Also, Porsche adjusted its value-oriented supply management worldwide due to increasing challenges caused by geopolitical conditions. The introduction of U.S. import tariffs leads to negative impacts for the month of April and May 2025, which are included in the adjusted forecast.
Before we come to the outlook and more details, let's take a look at our Q1 results and start with our sales development. In the first three months of 2025, Porsche AG delivered slightly above 71,000 vehicles to customers. On wholesale level, we sold 65,000 vehicles. This corresponds to a sales decrease of 8.4% compared to the same period a year earlier. The Macan developed significantly positively and is the best-selling model series with 22,000 vehicles. Of these, 14,000 were the new all-electric Macan. Second in the row is the Cayenne with 18,000 units sold. The sales performance of Cayenne, the 911, and the 718 in the first three months was mainly attributable to a base effect against last year and limited model availability in Europe because of cybersecurity regulations. On a regional basis, Porsche counteracted the decline in sales in China with an increased focus on the other regions.
The share of China's sales in Q1 2025 was 12%. Overall, our global sales footprint has become even more balanced and more resilient. As already discussed on our pre-close call, the demand for the new 911 develops very satisfying, even above expectations, especially for the GTS. Also, the demand for the new electric Macan remains robust. The mix and quality of our order book and sales illustrate that our customers appreciate our exclusive product offering and very much make use of the opportunity to personalize their vehicles. As a result, our average sales price on vehicle sales increased in the first three months to EUR 121,000 compared to EUR 115,000 last year. Let's now turn to the financial results. The Porsche Group generated revenue of EUR 8.9 billion in the first three months of 2025. The cost of sales increased by EUR 300 million to EUR 7 billion.
At 79% of sales revenues, this ratio was around 500 basis points higher than last year. This is mainly due to inflationary effects in our supply chain, higher material costs, also due to the higher BEV share, as well as the regular customer satisfaction initiatives and CO2 measures. We also had to account for higher expensed R&D costs. These were at a function of a significantly decreased capitalization rate from 73% in the previous year to 48% in Q1, as well as higher D&A of capitalized development costs of the past. At EUR 630 million, selling expenses were on par with the prior year period. The ratio to sales revenue remained almost constant at 7.1%. Administrative expenses were slightly higher at EUR 510 million. The administrative expenses also include a double-digit million amount relating to the adjustments to the company organization.
In combination with the lower unit sales, this triggered a very unfavorable fixed cost coverage in the first quarter. Accordingly, the Porsche Group operating profit stood at EUR 762 million in the first three months of 2025. The Porsche Group's operating return on sales was 8.6%. The EBIT included EUR 200 million of charges in connection with the strategic realignment. Around half of it is related to our battery activities, and around half relates to the organizational changes. As mentioned, strong pricing, mix, and individualization almost fully compensated the unit sales decline. As a result, automotive revenues amounted to EUR 7.8 billion in Q1. The operating return on sales for automotive was 8.7%. The automotive segment's operating profit in the first three months of 2025 was at EUR 678 million. Automotive EBITDA year-to-date was EUR 1.5 billion, corresponding to an automotive EBITDA margin of 18%.
This year, we have earned an automotive net cash flow of EUR 0.2 billion so far. The net cash flow at the beginning of the year was mainly a function of the following factors. First, lower cash flows from our operating business, which we outlined before. Second, lower capitalized R&D expenses. Inventories increased compared to the end of 2024 due to regular seasonal fluctuations. Third, the continued high spending on the development of our brand and ecosystem. We are investing decisively in our future, in products, software, and initiatives that will sustainably strengthen Porsche. These special expenses will have a short-term impact on the results of the 2025 financial year. We are consciously accepting this in the interest of Porsche's long-term success. In doing so, we are generally relying on our proven and successful Porsche strategy.
We have further developed this strategy extensively over the past year in order to adapt it to the changed framework conditions. After all, only a strategy that is regularly and pragmatically adapted will be successful in the long term. This allows us to respond to the new situation in the markets with the greatest possible flexibility. Financial services revenue amounted to EUR 1.1 billion in the first quarter. The operating profit of the financial services segment was EUR 67 million. Overall, the credit quality of our financial services book is unchanged and very strong. At the end of March, our automotive net liquidity was at EUR 8.7 billion. Now let's move on to the outlook for 2025. Yesterday, Porsche decided to adjust the forecast for the financial year 2025, in particular due to special effects.
For the financial year 2025, the following figures are now expected: a sales revenue between EUR 37 billion and EUR 38 billion, a return on sales between 6.5% and 8.5%, an automotive net cash flow margin between 4% and 6%, an automotive EBITDA margin between 16.5% and 18.5%, and an automotive BEV share between 20% and 22%. As a result of the slower ramp-up of electromobility, Porsche decided a strategic realignment of battery activities. The previous plans to expand the production of high-performance batteries by Cellforce Group, a 100% subsidiary of Porsche, will not be pursued independently in the future. As a result of this, and due to negative impacts from other battery activities, the amount of special expenses in the financial year 2025 will in total increase from EUR 0.8 billion to EUR 1.3 billion, which will affect results.
Beside the EUR 700 million attributable to the battery-related activities, around EUR 300 million of this burden are related to product, Exclusive, and software. The remaining EUR 300 million are related to the organizational changes, which also cover the announced workforce measures. In addition, Porsche has adjusted its value-oriented supply management worldwide due to increasing challenges caused by geopolitical conditions. This applies in particular to the Chinese market, where the continued challenging market conditions and declining demand in the all-electric luxury segment will affect development in the financial year 2025. Irrespective of this, we remain committed to value-oriented sales with the aim of balancing supply and demand. Further additional costs with regard to suppliers also contribute to the subdued forecast, which overproportionally affects the automotive net cash flow margin.
The introduction of U.S. import tariffs leads to negative impacts for the month of April and May 2025, which are included in the adjustment forecast. However, the adjusted forecast does not take into account further effects of the introduction of U.S. import tariffs. Currently, it is not yet possible to make a reliable assessment of the effects for the full financial year. These extensive measures have been initiated to strengthen the company's financial resilience and profitability. In the forecast for the financial year 2025, it is also assumed that the situation in the supply chain will remain challenging and that additional costs in the supplier area must be expected. This is due to individual delivery delays, fluctuations in the numbers of units, and possible insolvencies.
In addition, we expect significantly higher R&D expenditure resulting from a higher R&D budget, a lower capitalization rate, and higher D&A on capitalized R&D due to our product and strategic measures. In the long term, we at Porsche are pursuing higher ambitions. Let's look ahead to the current and upcoming years. We will be strengthening our brand core with emotional combustion engine vehicles. Last week in Shanghai, we presented the 911 Speedster or 911 S/T with a base price above EUR 240,000 in Germany. Alongside additional product approaches in the core segment of two-door sports cars, we will be expanding the 911 range with a model that will raise the bar even higher. Our fans will be delighted. Regardless of the type of drivetrain, at Porsche we fulfill our customers' dreams and wishes, no matter how individual they may be. Porsche already offers almost infinite possibilities for individualization.
Our range extends from the selection of individual interior and exterior options to completely customized one-offs. Before we come to the end, one more statement on our dividend payment. The Executive and Supervisory Board have proposed to the general meeting an unchanged dividend payment of EUR 2.1 billion for the financial year 2024. That's EUR 2.30 per ordinary share and EUR 2.31 per preferred share. The dividend will be paid out in the days following our virtual annual meeting on Friday, May 26, this year. As we want our shareholders to participate in our future earnings, Porsche intends to pay an annual dividend of around 50% of IFRS group earnings post-tax also in the future. Furthermore, we will host our Capital Markets Day on September 17. At this event, we will provide you with an update on our strategic realignment initiatives.
Being Porsche, and we fully understand and share your Passion, we might also give you the chance to experience our highly attractive products. Thank you for your attention, and I'm looking forward to your questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press Star and 1 on the touchscreen telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press Star and 2. Please press the Star key followed by 0 for operator assistance in case of technical difficulties. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Please ensure that the other devices which may be watching the video stream are parallel or completely muted to avoid interferences.
In the interest of time, please limit yourself to one or two questions. As mentioned, anyone who has a question may press Star and 1 at this time. With that, I hand over again to Björn Scheib, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. With the list in front of me, I can recognize that we obviously have quite strong interest. Therefore, gentlemen, I would kindly ask you to stay disciplined and limit yourself to two questions for each participant. For the first question, we are going to take Tim Rokossa of Deutsche Bank, who will be followed by José Asumendi by JP Morgan. Tim, the line is open to you.
Yeah, thank you very much, Björn. Thank you very much, Jochen. I have two questions, and I will clearly limit myself to that, Björn.
The first question I think is the most relevant today, Jochen. I mean, even pre-tariffs, we already had a couple of talks for you. Now, there's no doubt that the situation globally is very difficult for you. For the last 12 to 18 months, we now had various warnings on your side. It increasingly just feels like every time you meet with your supervisory board, the situation gets incrementally worse than what you feared on multiple levels. After the IPO, Lutz told us 12-14% margin would be the bottom in a worst case. Now we are below COVID levels. We're even below GFC levels at this point with the operating margin. How do you intend to restore confidence? How do you think we can get more confidence that there is actually a turnaround inside eventually?
Because I still fundamentally think you do the right thing on the strategy. It just feels like it's incredibly painful to get there. Secondly, specifically when we think about China, it's kind of hard to see that you struggle to find more than 40,000-50,000 people being interested in buying one of your cars in this gigantic market. What does it take to see some improvements in the market locally? Do we have to wait for the new ICE products that will eventually hit in like two or three years, or is there a possibility for something earlier by any major economic recovery in that market? Thank you.
Tim, thank you very much for your two questions and also for the discipline.
Sticking to the two questions, on your first one, you were asking about the numbers of ad hoc releases that you had during the last 12 to 18 months, and also you were commenting on the profitability level that we expect for the current year between 6.5% and 8.5% at a, I must admit, that rather low level. What you need to see there is that these days, looking in various areas of our business, we see a very special and challenging situation. We have diminishing demand in China with a fierce price competition, with a slowdown in the BEV transition in a lot of markets, not worldwide, but in a lot of markets, and we have the U.S. tariff situation, which does not only hit us directly with our business, but has also indirect effects in terms of volatility and insecurity that we see in various markets.
Therefore, these are special times, and therefore we really want to and we will react to these special times in a special manner. We do that by addressing everything that we can do on our own, controlling the business and shaping the business for the future. What you need to understand is, and I'm sure you have seen and read that, is that the major effects that give additional pressure on this year's profitability are special effects and one-time effects. For example, when you look at the battery business with the change strategy with the Cellforce Group, that's something that is a decision we've just taken yesterday based on thorough analysis to address the slowdown electromobility trend and cut spendings on that one.
Also, with our holistic profitability program, we look in each and every corner of our business and improve and cut costs, generate additional revenues, etc. All these measures are ongoing. Last but not least, the strategic realignment we are doing is something that we really believe is something that is worth paying for in this year with a rather low margin for benefits to come in the years to come with a more robust and then again, also again, more profitable business and business model. Now, on China, you were mentioning 40,000-50,000 units, and I agree. If you look at the history of China, we were sitting on almost 100,000 units 2 and 3 years ago in 2022, 2023. Record sales there. Last year, we dropped down to 56,000, and it is clear that we will not achieve a comparable number this year.
We will definitely expect sales in the 40s in 2025. We address the market short term and mid term. Short term, we have launched various special editions, Active and Platinum models in the especially SUV segments. These models are much more attractive to the Chinese market than the regular ones that were in the market before. From that, we assume that we will have an additional stimulus on demand to achieve the numbers that I've just mentioned. Mid term and long term, you are right, the updated product strategy is something we want to build on. We will increase the amount of supply that we have in our portfolio for ICE and also plug-in hybrid vehicles, which should also help the Chinese market. Last but not least, when it comes to the electric cars in China, these are under severe pressure.
Even there, there are some ideas that we can follow to improve the situation a bit. Having said all that, what is clear, at least from my perspective, is that we will not see China coming back to the levels we achieved in the past. I think that mid term, if the situation does not change completely, we will not see much more sales than the levels we see this year and maybe last year in that range.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. The next in the row will be José from JP Morgan, who will be followed by Patrick from UBS.
Björn, Jochen, a couple of questions, please. Can you comment on how you want to maintain the price discipline within the business? Also, how do you think about increasing price to mitigate any of the tariff measures we are seeing currently in the market?
The second question will be looking at your press release yesterday. Looks to me like there are three categories of cost. One is the battery, second one is the tariff impact for a couple of months. Then you have the third category, which is, I think, a basket of supplier payments and other actions. Which elements do you think are one-offs that we should reverse into 2026? I am asking this, obviously, with the idea that Porsche must be a double-digit EV marketing company, not single digit. Some of these elements that we are seeing in 2025 will surely be reversed next year. Thank you.
Thank you very much. To your first point, pricing discipline, this is really of utmost importance for us in our business model and our brand.
Being a luxury player in the car market, we definitely do not want to play the volume game, and we do not do that. We follow our value over volume strategy, and whenever we see that demand is declining, we cut production so that we align supply and demand and that we have this one unit less in the market than the customers' demand to keep a certain level of scarcity and exclusiveness there. That is a clear strategy that has been followed for the last years, and that will be our way to go also in the future. Now, with the tariff situation in the United States, short term, it is a bit more difficult because we are still in a kind of observing situation. We monitor what the discussions are bringing that are currently undergoing between the United States and the European Union.
There are some discussions between the Trump administration and various companies in Europe, like for example, the Volkswagen Group. We wait for the results of these talks and negotiations to see if the situation will change. Waiting for this information, we have decided to not adjust pricing yet in the United States. Therefore, we have this one special effect that we need to swallow and digest the additional tariffs in our margins for April and May volumes. Having said that, if negotiations do not turn out to be successful and the tariff regime would stay as we see it today, we will definitely increase prices in the U.S. to have some mitigating factors on our margin and margin quality as compared to what we see in April and May.
Now, a second question was on the main issues we have released yesterday with the ad hoc statement, batteries, tariffs, and you were mentioning also the supplier situations. Now, with the batteries, the biggest burden that we have in 2024 is the strategic realignment of the Cellforce Group. That is definitely a one-off. It is a write-off of the assets that we have of Cellforce Group that we do because we have decided to not scale the production of that battery cell within Cellforce Group at the location that we have in the southern part of Germany. We are evaluating partnering approaches or other strategic directions. Based on the decisions that have been taken yesterday against the backdrop of the slower BEV transition, it is something that clearly can be seen and needs to be seen as a one-off. Tariffs, difficult to tell, as just elaborated on.
We need to see what will happen with the tariffs, and then we can see how the situation will be in the second half of this year and also in 2026 ongoing. When it comes to the suppliers, there's still additional pressure on our profit margins due to pressure in the supply chain, especially changed demand compared to the expectations that we have on the BEV side. We need to adjust capacities on the supplier side, and this is still something that is putting pressure on our partners where we are in good talks and negotiations to find a solution. Once we've settled that one, we expect a more stabilized situation. Last but not least, as you know, we have also a EUR 300 million burden in our one-time effects for the adjustment of the workforce.
That's something that will be also posted against our 2025 results, and the benefits of the reduced workforce will then kick in starting as of 2026 with first minor effects, and then the whole business case will build up over the years to come.
Jochen, thank you very much. The next in the row will be Patrick of UBS, and he will be followed by Harald from Citigroup.
Thanks, Björn. Good morning, Jochen. Also, two questions from my side. The first one, when it comes to the new guidance for the full year, you basically tell us indirectly that if you can't 100% offset the tariff by higher pricing from June onwards, there's going to be another profit warning later in the year. Am I misreading that?
Because if I just extrapolate, you know, two months, EUR 300 million, that means remaining seven months is EUR 1 billion or EUR 1.05 billion. We can pick our own assumptions on what you can offset on the pricing. Let's say if the SUVs are more difficult to price because they've got local competition and you predominantly tried on the 911 product line, we could have yet another EUR 500 million or so of burden coming late in the year. I'm just not clear what's the rationale of not factoring in anything for the second half here because assuming the offset of everything via pricing seems a quite bold assumption to take. If you can clarify that, I'd greatly appreciate it. The second one, obviously, it's related to Tim's question about investor confidence and trust. The management team, the executive board rebuilt.
Two positions have been changed, including yours, obviously. There are more to come. Oli said in the last call that he doesn't consider his dual role as permanent for the future. I'm just wondering, given the quite challenging situation of the company, to say the very least, I think one element of rebuilding trust with investors is a swift execution of the executive board rebuild. I'm just wondering what kind of timeline we're talking here to have really a complete rebuild of the executive board, a new team that can work on regaining investor trust. Thank you.
Yeah, Patrick, thanks.
We'll start with your first question on the reduced guidance and the question whether there is more to come because, as you correctly were stating, we have not incorporated in the updated corridor the effects of a potential scenario with U.S. tariffs being in place for the full fiscal year. Why have you chosen that way to go ahead? First, we've added the April and May effects because we quite clearly see what will happen in April and May. I mean, today's April 29th, so that's more or less already in the books. Also with May, we have taken some decisions that we still want to observe the market, wait and see what will happen and if the situation will stay as it is or whether there will be some easing elements there. Therefore, we've incorporated April and May effects.
We have not forecasted anything for the remainder of the year because we see so much volatility there, so much uncertainty. Any scenario that we might have put into the guidance would potentially turn out to be the wrong one. Therefore, we clearly stated it's not in there. We wait what will be the results of the negotiations going on. Based on that, we will first make our operational decisions, especially in terms of pricing. Second, if needed, we will inform the market accordingly.
Is it fair to say then, Jochen, if I can just follow up here, that if the rules do not change, your assumption, your base assumption is not a full offset via higher pricing? It would be some offset, as you said before, but we can only speculate what that is.
Yeah. What we definitely will do is a differentiated pricing approach because we see a different competitive situation for our various models. A 911 Turbo is something completely different in terms of market demand and competitive situation as opposed to, for example, a base Macan model. Therefore, you can expect a differentiated pricing, which makes a lot of sense to come up with a sweet spot in terms of margin stabilization and volume effects that we expect. That is correct. Any other on top of that would be still to be decided on once we see how the tariff scenario will play out for the remainder of the year. Second question you had were on the executive management board. That is something, Patrick, I hope you understand that that is really hard to comment on.
From my side, that's really up to the supervisory board who is in charge of executive board nominations. Let's wait and see what these ladies and gentlemen will come up to in terms of decisions, in terms of persons and timing. Last detail on that one was a dual role of Oliver again. That's also something that cannot be commented from my side. Oliver commented his view on that one in various occasions. Also, it's a supervisory board question in both brands, Volkswagen and Porsche, to decide on that one.
Sure. Thank you, Jochen.
The next one in the row then will be Harald of Citi, and the next after Harald is going to be Stephen of Bernstein.
Yeah, morning, Björn, Jochen, and thanks for hosting the call today. Two questions from my side.
Jochen, specifically, I think it's sort of opportune to be talking to you this morning as the new CFO. Obviously, you've had to go through all of the numbers and everything to make sure you're very comfortable with where we are today. Kind of two questions for you. Firstly, how do you ensure as CFO that you are aware of and ahead of all of the different issues that Porsche is facing, Right? If you think about all the warnings we've had in the last two years, there's been a multitude of issues, and not all of those have been known about by investors ahead of time. How do you know, and how can you assure us that you are on top and you're provisioning and addressing all of the different issues that Porsche is facing For the first question.
Secondly, a slightly different take on the same question that we have from Tim. Obviously, the current level of profitability of Porsche is very, very different from where it was at IPO. The long-term margin trajectory got changed anyway, obviously, previously. How do you think about the profitability of the company looking at 2025 and relative to where you think it should be? Investors are clearly saying that the long-term margin of this company is very much below where it was during the IPO. Has the positioning of the company and the market changed so much that you would agree with that assessment, or do you think the 15%-17% that you already reduced it to is still relevant? Thank you, Jochen.
Yeah, Harold, thanks for the two questions.
On the first one, how do I want to make sure to be aware and ahead of the issues, the challenges that we have, and being ahead of the curve? First of all, I think we all need to see, understand, and admit that these are really challenging and dynamic and volatile times that we see in the various markets. We discussed on China already. Also, the tariff situation in the U.S. is something completely new for us directly, but also with indirect effects for the worldwide economy. On top of that, we see the technological change into the best transformation kicking in much more lower than we assumed that it would be. There are a lot of things that are going on that we need to tackle. Understanding what the challenges are is we need to have good knowledge in the markets.
We communicate regularly with everyone. We have a great team in all the departments, especially also in the finance area. A lot of people that I can fully rely on. I mean, what we have done during the last couple of weeks, I can understand that is something that would not be expected in the first place, changing the expectations in such a short period in time. We have done that based on thorough analysis, strategic adaptations that we want to do to shape the business for the future. This is based on clear data analysis and something that we can build on. On the margins, sure, 6.5%-8.5% is a level that is not sufficient for Porsche. That is something that we are not happy with. That's clear.
What I really want to stress here is and explain is that there are a lot of one-time effects and strategic investments that we are doing to shape the company for a robust and more profitable future. For example, the Selfos Group situation that we have, that's a higher 3 million burden that we have this year for the special write-offs we have with the strained strategy reacting to the slowdown BEV trend. With that example, you can see that we really take also critical decisions, but right decisions to cut the bleeding in some areas with investments that, based on today's perspective, would not pay off anymore, again, for the sake of a better future. Now, the 15%-17% in the midterm are still the numbers that we would generally see for the company.
Jumping to that number from today, 6.5%- 8.5% is quite a way. That's clear. If you deduct the one-offs and add the strategic initiatives that we have taken, that's still a target or an ambition level that we are striving for. Again, having said that, that most probably can only be achieved when we see a different, which means a bit more settled down and positive geopolitical environment in the future as opposed to what we have in China and the States today.
Thank you.
Next in the row would be Stephen from Bernstein. After Stephen, we've got Mike from HSBC.
Yes, good morning, Jochen. I'd like to focus particularly on China, please. When I look at the presentation that was made at the full-year stage, you put a slide out showing how you plan to reduce the points of sale.
The idea was to go from 144 dealers at the beginning of January of this year down to 100 by January 2027. Given the collapse in your sales and based on the registration figures I see, you're more trending towards the mid-30s based upon the registrations you had in the first quarter of this year. How would you comment on the pace of that? I think you did point to the weakness in China and you specifically highlighted the weakness of the premium electric segment. Clearly, the weakness of Porsche is also on some of your core products like Cayenne, which I have down by about 38% in the first quarter, and Panamera, a very China car down by 22%, and 911 down by about 15%. These are registrations in the first quarter year on year against very weak comparisons from the year before.
Could you comment more about how quickly you're changing that cost structure and also the paradigm of it? Because obviously, having a lot of dealers is also probably not great from a pricing perspective as well. Thank you.
Yeah. Now, China is a challenging market. That's clear. We remain in managing the market on a strategic perspective following our value over volume strategy and not playing the price war game and positioning Porsche still as a luxury brand with price premiums that we charge from our customers and in most areas are also able to charge from our customers. When it comes to the reduced volumes, you're totally right. We were sitting on almost 100,000 units in 2022-2023. We're down to 56,000 last year. This year, we expect volumes slightly above 40,000 is, I think, a fair estimate that we see.
Based on these numbers, we have to and we do adjust our structures both internally at our Porsche China organization, but also when it comes to our partners in the dealerships in the market. Our plan is still to reduce the number of point of sales by around about a third. From give and take 150 point of sales to 100 in 2027. That strategy is pushed forward. Consequently, first POS are already closed and others are to come. Negotiations are going on with our dealer groups, our partners, so that we achieve a joint strategy taking out the right dealers in terms of geographic footprints, which means where they are located. Also, what we want to do is that, of course, we want to take those dealers off the net that are not performing as good as others. Will that be sufficient?
As of today, based on our strategy, we would argue yes, might be on the slightly higher end, the 100 point of sales in the market. That is something that we will monitor constantly. As we were arguing in other circumstances, a strategy can only be successful when it is adapted and updated to circumstances that might change. That is also the case for China in general, but also for the number of point of sale. If a further downturn scenario would be there, of course, we would also revisit the dealer network. On the second question, you are right. We are struggling a bit with the full electric cars because we see that in China, there has not yet been the establishment of a luxury segment for full electric cars above RMB 600,000.
There's a lot of pressure on our Taycan, and also the newly introduced Macan full electric has started with some sales, but is not kicking in and selling as good as we were expecting. Now, when it comes to the combustion engine cars, of course, since the whole market is under pressure, given the developments we see there, we also see some negative effects there. We answer them with product measures, especially with our SUVs. We've added special editions, the Passion edition, for example, on the Cayenne and the Active editions, which are much more attractive to customers. We expect that that will stabilize demand on these cars. The 911, and that I want to mention, is something that is a car that has really healthy demand also in China. If you compare it quarter by quarter, of course, you see some seasonality and effects there.
The 911 is really at the core of the brand, is our icon, performing very well in China. If you've seen our presentation at our booth in Shanghai at the auto show, that really underlines that this is the core of the brand and something that we want to also play out much stronger in the future, talking about our heritage and legacy that we would argue no other brand can build a business upon.
Thank you. Thank you. The next in the row is, as said, Mike of HSBC, who will be followed by Horst of Bank of America.
Gentlemen. Sorry, I don't know if you can hear me.
Yes, we do. We can hear you. We do.
Brilliant. Just a couple of questions for me.
First off, just talking about the U.S., I wonder if you can explain if you've still got, are you still taking orders in the U.S.? What is your ability to change pricing once those orders are in the book? The second question is just around, I guess I'm trying to understand the supplier compensation piece. We already had some supplier compensation. The weaker volumes means more supplier compensation. Given what you've done on Selfos, is there a possibility that the supplier compensation piece continues on because you won't have the ability to make those batteries yourself? When do we see the end of supplier compensation? Is that a function of negotiation, or is that a function of waiting for volumes to recover? Thanks.
Yeah, Mike, on your first one in the United States, I can keep that short, clear, and crisp.
Yes, we are taking orders. We are happy for every customer coming to the dealership and signing the contract for one of our fantastic cars. Second, yes, we can change pricing before the car is delivered if we want to do so. As explained, we have not decided on price increases yet. If tariffs stay, that is something that will come for the second half of the year. On the supply side and the burden and pressure we have on the supplier issues, when will that be finally settled? That is not about volumes to come back again. It is about the negotiations that we are still doing for various model lines where we see that the expected demand and therefore production volume will be lower than we initially expected and planned for in our car projects and therefore also nominated our suppliers based on this information.
What we are doing here is that we are adjusting capacities with all the suppliers in these specific model lines, especially on the electric mobility model lines to the level that we see as a healthy demand in this year and the years to come. That is an ongoing process that will not last forever, of course. We definitely have a three-digit million burden this year. Since this is a rather complex issue and there are also more electric cars to come, we also expect additional burden in 2026.
Is there an element of that that is one-off? You make the payment to the supplier to compensate them for the fact that you are not going to do the volumes, and then you go forward on the assumption that it is going to be lower volumes.
Is it as long as the contract rolls, you have to keep filling, take or pay essentially?
It really depends on what we negotiate with the suppliers. I mean, each and every company and part is in a specific situation. There are various ways how we can settle the situation that we have. There are some one-time effects that we have, especially on the cash side in the current period and maybe also in the next year. There are other things where we see the parts prices on an increased level over the period of the production of the car. That is really a mixed situation because we try to find the best economic situation for each and every supplier and part that we purchase.
Got it. Thank you.
Very good. We are getting closer to the last minutes of the call.
The next will be Horst, and then we take Philippe. After Philippe, then we have Henning, and after him, Adrian, and then we've got it.
All right. Am I on? It's Horst here. Good morning.
Morning, Horst. Can you hear you?
Yeah, all right. Hey, good morning, Jochen and team. Thanks for taking my questions. I have got two, please, more forecast-related. The first one hooks up to my question that I had also in the Full Year call. It is about the revenue guidance now goes for minus 5% to minus 8%. Your ASP in Q1 was up + 4%. What can we then think about the split between ASP growth versus volume decline? I said in the Full Year call, or you said in the Full Year call, the unit sales decline would not be more than or significantly less than minus 10%.
Looks to me that now the minus 10% is somewhat baked into your guidance. Maybe you could comment on that. The second question is tariff-related. If I take the 300 million for April and May, I just take this number times 6, and I have got this theoretical annualized impact. Is that right? When you talked about negotiations on tariffs and Blume negotiates also with the U.S., there was also this interview in, I think it was Manager Magazin, where you were saying that products could be localized. I think Audi and Porsche were mentioned in the context. Is it that we could expect basic kind of localization of production, and then you get an exemption from tariffs? Is that something you're aiming for? I know it's difficult to answer that question, but any indication would be helpful. Thank you.
Yeah. Okay.
Also, let me try to be helpful then, and I'll start with the second question that you raised on the tariffs. The first element you were commenting on or asking was whether you can take the EUR 300 million from April and May times six to have a full year effect. Clear statement, no. Because in April and May, we swallow and digest the additional tariffs in our margin, and we do not have any compensating activities there because, as I said, we observe the market. We wait what will be the outcome of the negotiations. We also do not want to disturb the negotiations. Therefore, that's a decision we have made that we protect our customers from the tariffs in these 2 months. If tariffs stay, that's not a strategy we would follow.
We would then definitely go for a differentiated pricing strategy across the model ranges, and that would ease the pain that we have from the additional tariffs. The burden on a full year would be definitely much lower than 6x the EUR 300 million.
On a gross level, that is possible. Of course, you have got mitigation measures, but just the gross impact is EUR 300 million times 6, more or less.
It really depends on seasonality, on the model mix we have there. Sure, I mean, if tariffs stay the same and numbers of cars stay the same, pricing stays the same, everything stays the same, then you could do the math in that way. I think it is a bit more complex in terms of the specific cars that we see in specific months, and the seasonality plays quite a big role.
The other aspect was on the negotiations that are also participated by Oliver and the interview that you were mentioning. Now, coming to localized production in the United States, for us as Porsche, we still do not see that based on the tariff situation that we have today, that a business model with local production would pay off. Having said that, of course, with what we do with the strategy in general and also on this aspect is that we review that situation regularly. We need to see what the final tariff regime will be. We need to see how the market will react on our pricing strategy, if that will come in as we are modeling it in our analysis, or if there are other effects that might kick in that we need to incorporate. We will definitely revisit that regularly.
As of now, we have no plans to localize production for Porsche. The other question was on ASPs and volume. We definitely expect retail and also wholesale volume to be below 2025 numbers. That is for sure, that we have a reduction in volumes there following, as I said, the production cuts that we need to not oversupply the markets and support and sustain our value over volume strategy. As you have seen in the first quarter, we were able to increase ASP, and we also expect that that will be the case for the full year. There are additional price increases. Now I am talking worldwide, not talking about the U.S. tariff situation, with the next model year to come in the next few weeks. That will help on the ASP side. We are constantly driving mix optimization and individualization on the product.
Yes, ASP increase will help to compensate some of the volume losses that we expect for the current year.
The ASP increase currently is mainly driven by mix, not that much by price increases, correct?
It's driven by both. It's driven by both. Additional price increases will kick in as of summer.
Okay. All right. Thank you, Jochen. All the best.
Thank you.
Taking a look at the remaining time, Philippe, Henning, and Adrian, I would kindly ask you to limit yourself to one question in order to give everybody on this call the chance to ask their question. Thank you very much.
Hi, can you hear me now?
Philippe, we're here. Jefferies.
Yeah. Okay. I'm sorry about that. Yeah, Mike, I'll stick to one question. It's just I'm listening to you, Jochen, and how you frame the guidance.
It seems like part of you assumes that part of the guidance assumes that tariffs may go away. You discussed China. You focus the market on China volume, and you're now admitting that the volume in China, 40,000-50,000, may be down half, maybe half what it was at the peak. Why wouldn't that happen in the U.S.? I know you slightly over-indexed 911. 911 is a unique product. You can buy a Corvette instead, but you're probably going to buy a 911. If you're a buyer for a Macan or for a Cayenne, you have alternatives. I'm just trying to understand at what point could we be looking at U.S. volume being half what it has been in the last few years?
How much are you willing to basically drop the volume because you can only price part of your range, not all of it? I'm just trying to get a sense of what's missing in your guidance. Thanks.
Yeah. Let me first make that very clear and explain the assumptions that we have in the guidance when it comes to the tariffs. We've included the effects for April and May because we see them quite clearly, and these effects will come, and therefore we've included them in the guidance. We have not included any other effects on potential tariffs in the United States because the situation is so volatile. You get news every day, sometimes every hour, speculations, new data points, new facts, or things that are supposed to be facts, and you do not know whether this information is factful or not.
Therefore, we said a reliable assessment on the tariff situation for the full year is not something that we can do today. We did not want to put any scenario into the guidance and then change it again. Our strategy was to really clearly state that we have not included effects as of June until December. That is something that we need to work on when we see how the tariff situation will finally be set in the United States. Will it go away? I do not know. Would be great. I mean, we argue for free and open and fair trade, but that is something that needs to be seen. As I said, we will do our analysis on facts rather than on speculation. Second question on China and the United States. These two markets really cannot be compared.
What we see in China today is that we have two things. First, fierce pricing competition when it comes to transaction prices. Second, we have especially local products that are positioned at a price point that is not some percentage points higher or lower, in that case, lower than our products or other Western products. This is really a completely different game that is played there. When it comes to pricing, that we will probably do if tariffs stay in the United States. We are talking about percentage points. Of course, given the price elasticities that we know from our market research, there will be some volume reaction, but we definitely not expect a meltdown in the United States as we've seen it in China during the last two or two and a half years.
Thank you very much.
You. The next in the row is Henning, and then we've got Adrian.
Yeah, thank you very much. I'll try and hurry up. I just wanted to follow up on what in your mind will reverse in 2026 compared to 2025. I thought we had it sort of laid out about the cuts at the full year stage, just about the incremental. I think you refer to them sometimes as one-offs now. Can I just clarify? You have an additional EUR 500 million non-cash impairments for Selfos Group, but that's about the extent that you see incrementally reversing next year. In combination now with the previous warning, you had the EUR 300 million for outright restructuring or organizational changes, and now the EUR 500 million non-cash impairment, but the rest will basically stay in the accounts. I just wanted to clarify that.
In terms of what you expect in terms of volume to persist, my understanding is we're talking about 20,000 units or so down, of which about 15 or so in China. With additional price increases coming in the U.S., is it still valid, the roundabout 300,000 unit level that we talked about at the full year stage, or is it perhaps more prudent now to think of that as a sustainably lower number going forward as well? Thank you very much.
Yeah. Quick answers to your questions. The 2 main one-offs that will reverse for 2026 are the ones that you're mentioning, the accruals that we need to do and the provisions for the rescaling of our workforce. EUR 300 million was the number we had there.
You are right, the strategic realignment of the Selfos Group is a write-down of the assets that we have there, and that is for sure also one of the effects. These are the major ones. The investments into products and software can be seen in the P&L as additional R&D and CapEx. What we have explained also in the full year is that we expect elevated levels for these two strategic capital allocation items for the few years to come. There will be a pivot, and things will change once the product portfolio is updated to the new strategy. The new product strategy is also the most important part of the answer for the volume question. Given our product portfolio that we have today and the market situation, we will not see 300,000 units in 2025.
You know that the update of a product portfolio cannot be done within a few months. That is something that really depends on whether you do a small limited model or something like that, or whether you have a complete new model. We are talking two to four years until additional models kick in. Volumes of 300,000 units is something that we would, based on our value over volume strategy, expect that can be achieved, but that is something that we need to build on based on our sales that we see this year.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next in the row then will be Adrian.
Morning. Thanks for squeezing me in. Yeah, just a follow-up question really from Mike earlier on the call. You helpfully mentioned that the U.S. orders are still open.
I was just wondering if you could comment maybe on order intake rates, either at a retail or even the dealer, the wholesale level. What I'm really kind of trying to get at is some customer behavior, such as is there some pull forward in demand in March and April, and would you expect some still in May?
Yeah, we see a normal demand pattern based on seasonalities that we know and based on the product offer that we have in the United States. There were no significant orders pulled ahead into March or February and March before the tariffs kicked in. Yeah, we see a robust and stable situation in the United States and no special effects based on the tariffs.
Thank you.
Very good. The very, very last is from Anthony. Anthony, I also count on you that you limit yourself to one question.
Yes, thank you. It's a very quick one on my side. Hi, guys. It's just on China. You mentioned the ongoing negotiations with the dealers. Just wondering if we should expect some provisions at some point. I was just thinking around 40-50 dealers and the sales organization to be reviewed could be a not so insignificant impact, but just wanted to check with you on that one.
In general, it's in the interest of both all the dealer groups and us to come up with a dealer network that fits to the market size and the demand. Therefore, we are in good discussions and negotiations with the dealers continuously. Therefore, you should not expect significant one-time effects for the reshaping of the dealer network. That's minor budgets that we need there for the one or the other situation or specific dealership.
In general, that's something that is done on good talks with the dealer groups.
Perfect. Thank you.
Jochen, gentlemen, thank you very much for this conference call, your questions, and Jochen with your answers for the relevant interests. As Jochen outlined earlier, we're going to host a Capital Markets Day on September 17th in Germany, presumably on the Hockenheimring, which will not only give you the chance to get an update on our strategic realignment, our outlook, and what the company is undertaking to the degree to increase the resilience and also the total product offering and innovation. At the same time, we'll also grant you the opportunity to experience our products and to share the passion that we and our customers have for Porsche. If anything should be open, IR , stays at your disposal. Stay all healthy, and we stay in touch. Thank you and bye-bye.
Colleague, thanks for dialing in. Talk soon after H1, and then looking forward to meeting all of you at the Hockenheimring. Have a great day.
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