Welcome. Can you all hear me? Is the sound loud and clear? Okay.
Loud and clear.
Very good. I'll say, let's get started. Welcome to Porsche AG's pre-close call, and thank you for joining today. Following the release of our Q3 delivery figures yesterday, today's call is designed to provide analysts and investors with a comprehensive update. We will summarize key data from the sales release and highlight recent public statements made by management at roadshows, conferences, and other events. We will also reiterate selected messages from our first half 25 earnings call and other communication since. Please note that this is our only pre-close communication ahead of our earnings release. We will enter our quiet period immediately after this call. If you receive questions later during the Q&A session that go beyond the scope of our latest public disclosures, we kindly ask for your understanding that we will address those in conjunction with our earnings release on October 24.
Before we begin, please note that today's presentation contains forward-looking statements. The safe harbor language and cautionary notes provided on the slide apply to all statements made during this call. We encourage you to review the disclaimer carefully. Now let's get started with the Q3 deliveries. As you have seen in our sales release yesterday, Porsche delivered 212,500 vehicles globally between January and September, demonstrating resilience in a challenging environment. Please also consider when reading these numbers that we have a couple of gaps currently in our portfolio, namely the ICE Macan in Europe or the 718. Electrified models accounted for 35% of total deliveries, which is a 13% increase year- over- year, with 23% fully electric and 12% plug-in hybrids. The Macan led growth across model lines with an 18% increase, while North America remained the largest market at 64,000 units with an increase of 5% year- over- year.
Now, the so-called region number five, which is overseas and emerging markets, reached an all-time record high with 43,000 deliveries, and in China, deliveries totaled 32,000, which is a decline of 26%, but as you know, here we continue to foc on value-oriented sales, and to note, we don't have any assembly in China nor any joint venture partner. Overall, Porsche's regional distribution remains very balanced, and Porsche increased its market share in five of six model segments despite intensifying competition. Customer demand for individualization is also developing quite positively, supported by rising interest in the Sonderwunsch program and Porsche Exclusive Manufaktur. The capacity expansion, as you have heard earlier and before, is underway. Strong demand for the new 911 Turbo S, coupled with highly positive feedback by both the media and our customers, underscores the enduring appeal of our flagship model.
At the upcoming Icons of Porsche event in Dubai, we will also unveil the all-electric Cayenne. This is the best version, a bold milestone in our electrification strategy. Initial media and customer reactions have been overwhelmingly positive. We've got a WLTP range of up to 600 km, peak charging capacity of up to 400 kW, and a charging time of just 15 minutes from 10 to 80% state of charge. The Cayenne BEV sets a new benchmark in the exclusive SUV segment. Combining performance, luxury, and utility, the Cayenne BEV is not only a record setter and defined lounge, but also a true mountain master, offering a towing capacity of 3 tons. This is on par with ICE variants. Don't underestimate this USP because this capability is especially relevant for SUV customers with an active lifestyle, such as towing a boat or having a horse trailer.
To further enhance everyday convenience, we also plan to offer wireless charging of up to 11 KW, reinforcing our commitment to innovation and customer-centric design. Now we move on to production. Production in the Q3 is expected to reflect current demand across regions, with our flexible and disciplined production management ensuring our stringent value-oriented sales strategy. Please note that Q3, as every year, is also expected to reflect the yearly four-week summer break in our Leipzig and Zuffenhausen plant. Wholesales. We continue to take a disciplined approach to dealer inventory management in both the U.S. and China. Wholesales are expected to reflect our consistent value-driven sales strategy in line with the prior quarters. The wholesale mix will closely track recent retail dynamics, as previously outlined. As in previous quarters, wholesales are expected slightly below retail. Now, incoming orders. Customer demand remains robust, reflecting continued enthusiasm for our brands.
The high level of individualization in the order book highlights the strong desire among customers to configure and purchase their personal Porsche. The 911 Turbo S is getting stronger momentum with its order book filling nicely. With respect to the wholesales, please also listen to the comments on group revenues. As said before, group revenues year to date 2025 and revenues per vehicle in our automotive business are expected to reflect our consistent value over volume strategy, our premium product mix, and pricing and mix remain quite supportive factors. Now let's move on to the strategic realignment. During Q3, we have taken the final steps in the realignment of our product strategy. While these decisions come with short-term burdens, they are essential to securing long-term success.
This approach reflects our response to the evolving global customer needs and the moderated pace of electric mobility adoption, and it enhances our future flexibilities for the years ahead. As a result of these comprehensive product portfolio decisions, Porsche expects incremental expenses of up to EUR 1.8 billion in the fiscal year 2025, expected to be booked in the Q3 2025. The burdens include, among other items, depreciation of capitalized R&D and assets, and provisions linked to product portfolio rescaling. While these investments temporarily weigh on our 2025 financial performance, they are critical to ensure Porsche's long-term competitiveness, sustainable growth, and brand strength. Let's move on to the expenses. We have to expect that we continue to face inflationary pressure, particularly in the material costs and compensation to BEV suppliers due to the lower than expected volumes. However, as outlined before, management is tackling this topic.
As previously outlined, Porsche is proactively optimizing its cost base through targeted measures and cross-functional cooperation. Among investments in quality, customer satisfaction, and CO2 initiatives, we have to expect that these are also headwinds. Now let's turn to the automotive net cash flow. Starting from EUR 400 million year to date, the Q3 cash flow is expected to reflect the reduction of the temporary elevated inventories in the U.S. and China at the end of the Q2 . The cash flow will also reflect the production closure in summer and therefore lower inventory levels in general. Let's turn to the outlook. Core assumptions regarding unit sales, supply chain stability, and cost trends remain unchanged. In light of the EU-U.S. agreement on import tariffs, our forecast now reflects 15% US import duty effective August 1st. We are proactively implementing mitigation measures, including targeted pricing adjustment, to preserve margin integrity.
Operational performance remains overall and in our underlying business quite robust, underscoring the resilience of our business model and the effectiveness of the ongoing measures. Absent the product-related portfolio decisions made last month, Porsche would have reaffirmed its original group return on sales outlook from Q2 2025 despite persistent market headwinds. The underlying strength is also reflected by our unchanged automotive net cash flow guidance. Before we turn to our outlook statement, the group return on sales guidance for the fiscal year 2025 includes approximately EUR 3.1 billion in extraordinary expenses related to the strategic realignment, primarily impairments from Cellforce Group and impairments from the most recent product portfolio decisions. The group return on sales guidance also reflects a high triple-digit million EUR impact from U.S. import tariffs. The strategic realignment and tariffs will also lead to significant cash outflows in 2025. However, these remain significantly below the EBIT-related burdens.
The overall guidance statements as such are for group return on sales, lower end of the guidance, slightly positive group return on sales, and with the automotive net cash flow, we are at 3%. The other end of our guidance statements is 2% group return on sales and 5% automotive net cash flow. Before we come to the end, our cash flow guidance of 3%-5% for the fiscal year reflects the tariff agreement reached between the EU and the U.S. authorities. Assuming reimbursement would be recognized post-December 31st only, current expectations support that we can maintain and provide the guidance unchanged. Porsche also maintains a disciplined hedging strategy with significant coverage already secured for this year and beyond. Before we come to an end, a couple of words on our strategy.
As announced in mid-September, Porsche has reassessed its strategic direction in light of significant macroeconomic and industry shifts over the past two years. We're doubling down on what defines Porsche: emotionally resonant, beautifully designed, and precisely engineered products driven by innovation and deep customer insight. This sharpened focus enables us to deliver a more compelling and differentiated product offering across the segments most relevant to Porsche. With a clear roadmap in place, we are rescaling and recalibrating the company for sustainable long-term success. While these strategic investments weigh on short-term financial performance, they are essential to strengthening brand identity, enhancing product flexibility, and delivering more individual, exclusive, and desirable products to our highly trusted and loyal customers. To the upcoming IR events, Porsche's Q3 results will be published on October 24 at 5:30 P.M. Central European Time.
The joint analyst and investor media call will follow at 6:00 P.M. You should have received our invitation to the Icons of Porsche event in Dubai at the end of November. As one of the largest Porsche festivals globally, the event brings together over 20,000 fans and Porsche enthusiasts to celebrate the brand's heritage, innovation, and lifestyle. The analyst and investors program will feature strategic updates, product premieres, and innovation highlights, including new models, concept cars, classic vehicles, motorsport icons, and immersive brand experiences. After this call, we will send out a template for your estimates to compile our company consensus, which we are happy to share afterwards. We will appreciate your support and the return of your estimates by October 14th, end of business. With this, now let's move on to the Q&A.
Perfect. Thank you, Björn. First one in the row is Henning.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking the question. Afternoon, everybody. I just had two quick ones, please. First one was on the fact that you hadn't specified the headcount reduction that we were still expecting for the rest of the year and the most recent profit warning. So I just wanted to get your view again, Björn and Alex, as to if there's potentially anything more to expect in further provisions or if we can assume that that's fully covered. And then the second question was just if management had said anything on volumes in 2026, just because, Björn, you were talking through the strategic realignment again, so not necessarily asking for guidance, but just in terms of what capacity might have been restructured to in the context of the realignment, if that's a way of saying it. Thank you.
Sure, sure, sure. First of all, as you have been hearing, when we talked about the final milestone to the degree of the strategic realignment, this was to be seen that you should not expect sizable or significant burdens resulting from the discussions that we had at the moment with our in-house works council and our employees. Please understand these discussions are ongoing at the moment. As such, we are unable as of now to share more information on this, but there's a common understanding between management and also our employees that for the future success of this company, there is some initiative and action required to increase the competitiveness of Porsche as such. But it's fair to assume that you will not see significant burdens in that context. Now, coming to 2026, it's a little premature to talk about 2026 now. Why?
Because obviously the population of black swans in this world is a little larger than we expected at the beginning of this year. But it's fair to assume that our order book and our product portfolio should grant us with certain support. To this, I would divert your attention to the electric Cayenne. The electric Cayenne is not substituting the ICE Cayenne, but it's coming on top of the existing product. One product that will see significant lower unit sales next year is the 718, as this product will be running out in all major markets and we only have a couple of thousand units remaining.
Thank you, Björn.
Thank you, Henning.
And next question.
Maybe only one word, Henning. When taking a look at your forecast for 2026, you shouldn't solely focus on the absolute volume. You should also focus on mix and pricing. To this degree, you should not forget that next year we have for the first time the 911 mix in a normal year with the 911 Turbo S being fully available and obviously also meeting quite strong customer demand.
Of course. Thank you.
Thank you. Finally, Horst.
Yeah, thank you. Just two quick ones. Follow-up. This was also my question on the 718, Björn, because I see that every quarter I saw it has already phased out and I still see every quarter, I don't know, sizable units. So when you talk about these phase-out effects, when is that exactly coming in? Is that then next quarter it's turning down already or is it more really an effect as of Q1 26? I mean, just some guidance would be helpful.
No, that is a 26 story. So you will see a number between 10 and 20, more in the direction of 20 for this year. Next year, we will see only a couple of thousand. And this is what I addressed earlier. This would recognize the gaps in our portfolio as of now. And this has fewer to do with customer demand as a whole. We are unable to serve certain market segments, namely the ICE Macan in the European markets. And this is when talking about wholesale numbers or retail numbers, this is something that you should also consider.
And as in the discussion with Henning, I also pointed out, as also in the previous intro for this pre-close call, it's not wholesale, retail, and absolute numbers in the case of Porsche. It's also quite meaningful what we get as mix, what we get as pricing, and what we get in individualization. This is something that you shouldn't ignore.
In that context, have you ever mentioned to what extent then the prices have been increased in the U.S. in the Q3 ?
Yes, there had been official communication that we increased the pricing in the U.S. from 2.4%-3.6% per model. This is on MSRP. And the tariffs are imposed on the import prices. So please understand, tariffs are not on MSRP. Tariffs are on import prices.
Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Since you also mentioned the Turbo S, I'm not sure if you ever mentioned that, but what is the share of the Turbo S on the total 911 sales? And also of the Turbo?
We never quantified this number, but it's absolutely fair to assume that the Turbo has a quite fair share in our total sales of the 911. And if you take a look that we have on an annual basis, around 50,000 plus 911 sales, it's absolutely fair to assume that a fair chunk out of this is also for the higher-end models, be it Turbo, be it GT3, be it GT3 RS, be it the Turbo. So this was for the fiscal year 2025, also not so supportive that we didn't have that product on board. So we are quite grateful that we finally can serve our customers from next year onwards.
Yeah. Can you remind us again of the launch cadence of the remaining 911 derivatives?
It's the Turbo S.
The Turbo S. And when is that getting launched? It's now in Q4 or?
The product will now come to market, and you will see the meaningful contribution on unit sales and results in 2026.
In 2026. All right. Thank you.
Thank you, Horst. Next one is José. José, we cannot hear you.
Thank you. Thanks. Thank you, Björn. I was just saying, if you could please repeat again the comments you provided on cash flow, please, specifically if any comments at all for the Q3 . Thank you.
Let me just read out to you what we said on cash flow. So we said turning to net cash flow starting from EUR 400 million in the first half, the Q3 cash flow is expected to reflect the reduction of the temporary elevated U.S. and China inventory levels at the end of Q2 2025. And the cash flow will also reflect the production closure in summer and therefore lower inventory levels in general. It's also fair to assume, José, that we also see a reflection of our tight spending. And as such, these are our comments to cash flow for the fiscal year 2025.
We'll focus on the Q3 .
Thank you.
Thank you, José. Maybe one annotation on this one without getting academic or too theoretical. Porsche has a quite low vertical integration, and as such, in combination with quite attractive pricing, we have an attractive cash conversion rate. By the way, also quite attractive return on invested capital. Our numbers at a pre-tax level this year are hugely distorted because of the EBIT effects from the strategic realignment, and as such, we have this year from a pre-tax margin level, even excluding the product measures, a quite unfavorable year. Still, you should focus on the cash and cash conversion because, as you can see from our statement that we would have kept our net cash flow guidance unchanged, you can see that despite the current challenges in markets, we're running a quite resilient operating business.
Next one in the line is Philippe.
Yes, good afternoon. My question is, has your management said anything during the quarter about FX impacts? Because we have now the benefit of a lower tariff impact, but the dollar has become significantly weaker. Is your hedging policy covering through the end of 2025 or at one point, do we run out of hedging?
No, you should expect that we have this year, based on our quite conservative hedging policy, the support that the currency is not so much filtering through as you would expect taking a look at a spot rate. In that matter, you should take into consideration that the gross exposure in the dollar terms is also mitigated or reduced by procurement, in particular on our electric vehicles that we make in many aspects on dollars.
Second, you should also keep in mind that we not only have a hedging policy, which is quite conservative on the U.S. dollar, but also against all other major currencies, namely the Chinese RMB and a couple of others. So as such, we see benefit from our hedging policy in general, not only that we run a sustainable, well-planned business, but also to the degree that the currency fluctuations are not fully filtering through to our P&L and cash flow statement.
Okay. Great. Thank you very much. That's helpful. Can I bring a comment?
But you should also expect that we have already sizable hedging in place for next year.
Yeah. Okay. Thank you very much. If I can squeeze in a comment, here we are on a Friday afternoon. It seems like you are going to give us numbers on the Friday afternoon again in two weeks. Should we plan on having regular Friday afternoon meetings, or do you think you could report numbers on a different day?
Thanks. Philippe, absolutely, well granted. This is something which also on our side is clearly in focus. Fully understanding that we all live outside of our business professions, we for sure try to do our best to take this into consideration.
Great. Thank you. Have a good weekend. Bye-bye.
You too.
Also, we want to go home. So Michael, the last one is up to you.
Yes, Michael, good afternoon. I have only one clarification question on your free cash flow guidance. I understand correctly that this is based on the assumptions that you will see the repayment of high tariffs from April to August already in this year?
No. Our guidance statement is based on the assumption that we would get it. Under the assumption we wouldn't get it, the guidance for the cash flow would still be the same. So you can see our guidance in cash flow has a certain resilience. And even if you wouldn't get reimbursement, our guidance for cash flow stands.
Okay. Thank you.
So ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for joining in today. As Philippe said, it's a Friday evening, but also for a couple of others who are listening in, it's a Friday afternoon. Or for a couple of others, it's already even later. Thank you very much for joining. This was the pre-close call of Porsche. We are about to collect the consensus. For the ones of you who send us the numbers, we are quite happy to share the consensus. And for the ones who are going to join us for Icons of Porsche, we look forward to see you there.
For the others, we look forward to see you during our Q3 roadshow. Have a safe and pleasant weekend, and we talk soon. Bye-bye.