Hello and welcome, everybody, to our joint media analysts and investors call regarding today's announcement. My name is Sebastian Rudolph, Head of Communications at Porsche . With me is my colleague Björn Scheib, Head of Investor Relations. The most important ones are Oliver Blume, our CEO, and Jochen Breckner, our CFO. Oliver and Jochen both will provide a brief overview of today's announcement and its implications, then we head to the Q&A. With this, I hand over to Björn.
Good evening also from my side. Before we begin, please note that any forward-looking statements made during this call will be subject to the risks and the uncertainties outlined in the safe harbor statement included in our materials. This introduction is also governed by this disclaimer. Please note that after this call, a short presentation will be available in the investor section of the Porsche website to illustrate today's communications. With that said, I now would like to hand over to Olli.
Thank you very much, and good evening, everyone. Thank you for joining. Jochen Breckner and I are happy to give you a quick update on the latest developments at Porsche AG. You all know we are seeing massive changes within the automotive environment. Those include, first, an unpredictable development of demand for electric mobility, second, a dramatically decreasing demand for luxury goods in China, and third, a trade tariffs and accordingly currency issue in the United States. That is why we are aligning Porsche across the board with clear goals to meet new market realities and changing customer demands, to stay at the forefront of innovation and performance, and to keep delivering excellence with fantastic products for our customers and with robust financial results for our investors.
We have already launched and implemented a wide range of measures in our product strategy, in our company structure, and in how we manage costs. Today, we have set the final milestone in the realignment of our product strategy. The Executive Board, together with the Supervisory Board, has approved target adjustments. This will bring significant changes, and yes, it will require substantial investment. Let me start with the ICE and hybrid portfolio expansion. Key part is we will expand and refine our lineup of ICE models to meet diverse customers' needs and regional market requirements during the transition phase, including newly developed ICE and plug-in hybrid models, including an SUV above the Cayenne in both ICE and plug-in hybrid variants.
Highly emotional ICE derivatives at the upper end of the model lineup to complement our future bet in the 718 segment and lifecycle extension for existing ICE and plug-in hybrid models such as the Cayenne and Panamera well into the 2030s. This will not be just upgrades, but new products with substantial innovations. All of this adds to what we have already announced: the ICE and plug-in hybrid powered SUV in the B segment, the expansion of Halo products, and greater individualization with our Sonderwunsch program and the Exclusive Manufacturer. Let us come to continued commitment to electrification. At the same time, Porsche remains committed to electrification. We believe EVs are essential to achieving long-term CO2 reduction and decarbonization targets, and just as important, they excite specific and growing customer groups. We will offer a comprehensive EV lineup across all major segments. First, the Taycan is a high-performance electric limousine.
Second, the Macan and Cayenne are fully electric SUVs, and there, the fully electric Cayenne will launch next year, as we have shown it also at the IAA in Munich. A highly emotional electric sports car, the 718 segment. However, we have seen a clear drop in demand for exclusive battery electric cars, and we are taking that into account. That's why we are pushing back development of selected fully electric models. Specifically, this means the launch timeline for the fully electric SUVs positioned above the Cayenne, based on the SSP 6.1 platform, is being rescheduled. In close coordination with other brands within the Volkswagen Group, we are continuously evaluating the right moment for its market introduction. The result of all this will be a well-balanced portfolio. Especially in today's highly volatile environment, this flexibility gives us a strong position.
With a compelling mix of combustion engines, plug-in hybrids, and battery electric vehicles, we will be able to meet a wide range of customer needs. In the midterm, this approach will support our growth and improve our position in the markets. Our future lineup will be built on advanced technology and a strong brand, key to staying relevant for customers and driving long-term success. It is and always will be our key compromise. Porsche, the legend, the brand, the economic success is built on first-class vehicles, on sports cars that exceed all expectations, on cars that inspire passion, on icons that survive generations, on models that are much more than just a means of transportation. They are a vision and fascination. They are our motivation. One thing is also clear: we have made key strategic decisions. Now it's time to put them into action.
It's going to be a tough and long road, and it will demand our full focus and strong effort. With that, I will hand over to Jochen. He will walk you through the financial implications and our updated outlook. Jochen, over to you.
Oliver, thank you very much. Welcome, everyone, on this call. As outlined, Porsche's strategic and macroeconomic context has shifted significantly over the past two years. In response, we have rigorously reassessed our strategy, doubling down on what defines Porsche: emotionally resonant, beautifully designed, and precisely engineered products. Innovation and customer desire remain at the core. This renewed focus enables us to deliver a more compelling product offering across the segments most relevant to Porsche. With a clear roadmap in place, we are recalibrating the company for a sustainable long-term success. As a result of the comprehensive product portfolio decisions, Porsche expects incremental expenses of up to EUR 1.8 billion in fiscal year 2025. These include, among other items, depreciation of capitalized R&D and assets, and provisions linked to the product portfolio repositioning. The majority of these effects is expected to be booked in Q3 2025.
The current full year 2025 forecast published by Porsche does not yet reflect these burdens. Cash outflows related to the product portfolio measures are anticipated over the coming years. In total, Porsche now expects extraordinary expenses of approximately EUR 3.1 billion in fiscal year 2025, driven by its strategic realignment. These costs reflect targeted adjustments in product strategy, battery-related initiatives, and organizational transformation measures. We fully acknowledge that these strategic investments weigh on our short-term financial performance. However, they are essential: first, to sharpen brand identity; second, to enhance product portfolio flexibility; and third, to deliver more desirable offerings to our customers. These initiatives lay the foundation for Porsche's long-term competitiveness and sustained future profitability in an increasingly dynamic global environment. Following the EU-U.S. agreement on import tariffs, our forecast reflects the 15% U.S. import duty effective August 1st. We are actively implementing mitigation measures to safeguard margin resilience.
This includes also pricing adjustments. Our core assumptions regarding revenues, unit sales, supply chain stability, and cost trends remain unchanged. Absent today's product portfolio decisions, Porsche would have been in a position to reaffirm its original outlook despite persistent market headwinds. As a result of today's decisions, Porsche expects the following for fiscal year 2025: at the lower end of guidance, a slightly positive group EBIT margin and automotive net cash flow of 3%. At the upper end of the guidance, a group EBIT margin of 2% and automotive net cash flow margin of 5%. Now, I will come to the revised midterm profitability ambition. Porsche expects the strategic realignment of the product portfolio to support improved financial performance over the medium to long term. However, external headwinds are likely to weigh on results. These headwinds are such as U.S.
import tariffs, softening demand in the exclusive segment in China, and a slower than anticipated ramp-up in electro-mobility. While the cycle plan addresses these challenges, it will only partially offset their impact. In response, Porsche is targeting a medium-term double-digit operating margin with upside potential of up to 15% under favorable market conditions, at the lower end of the previously communicated range. Before I close, a brief note on capital allocation. We recognize the importance of a reliable dividend for our long-term shareholders. Backed by Porsche's strong balance sheet and robust cash flow, the Executive Board currently intends to propose a dividend for fiscal year 2025 that deviates from our medium-term policy. While expected to be significantly lower than last year's payout, the proposed dividend would remain clearly above the level implied by our medium-term framework. Final approval is subject to the relevant corporate bodies.
With that, Oliver, I hand back to you. Thanks, everyone.
Thank you, Jochen. This marks the final cornerstone of our strategic realignment, a clear signal of Porsche's next chapter. We are moving forward with focus, discipline, and commitment. Our strategy is defined, execution is underway, and our teams are fully aligned. With innovation at the core, heritage as our foundation, and customer inspiration as our guide, we are shaping Porsche's future. The road ahead will demand resilience, but we are prepared. We will move forward together. Thank you very much, and at the end, I would hand over to Björn.
Thank you, Olli, and thank you, Jochen. We will now start with the Q&A with analysts and investors, and after this, I will hand over to Sebastian for the Q&A session with the media. Gentlemen, with respect to time, we would kindly ask you to strictly limit yourself to one or two quite short questions. The first in the row will be Tim Rokossa, and thereafter we take Mike Tinder.
Hi, this is Tim from Deutsche. Thank you for taking my questions. I guess to Olli and Jochen, I mean, this is yet another adjustment to a short and strategic target. It's pretty big numbers. You make it sound, Olli, like this is the final move, but to be honest, it was portrayed like that before in other talks that we had. How do you want to get investors some confidence this is really it and this is really the final straw of the alignment? Secondly, Jochen, probably rather to you, there are some really big numbers here and it seems like there's a couple of things mixed up. Can you help us untangle this? How much is China? How much is tariffs? How much is probably the K 1 platform and the electric- car platform? Thank you.
Yeah, Tim, let me start. Olli speaking. Thanks for your question. Yes, it is. We are talking about the final milestone in terms of our product strategy. We are looking to an intense process during the last months with deep analysis about our markets, technologies, and financials. This decision brought us to now a completely flexible and resilient product portfolio in terms of BEVs, hybrids, and ICEs. We will be prepared for a slower or a faster BEV transition. It depends on what we will see in the markets. Closing, it is the final milestone, what we have planned carefully over the last months.
Yeah, Tim, thanks for your question. I think that's really an important one because we really need to get this right and get the right understanding. We need to convey that. What is very important is that without this final strategic realignment, as I've just said, we would have been in a position to reaffirm and reconfirm our current fiscal year guidance for 2025 with the 5.7% return on sales, for example. All the effects I was mentioning for the midterm outlook and our ambition there, like muted demand in China, tariffs in the U.S., were already included in that fiscal year guidance. What we are communicating today does not include any of these effects.
The EUR 1.8 billion, or to be more precise, the up to EUR 1.8 billion solely ties back to the electric platform that we started to develop a couple of years ago with various cars that we wanted to put onto this platform. As Oliver just explained, we will not follow that route anymore. We postponed that well into the 2030s. With that, there are coming special expenses. First, we have depreciation on capitalized R&D. Second, we need to have additional provisions for these updated product strategies. That's the up to EUR 1.8 billion. As you understand, this is, of course, relying all to EBIT. When it comes to cash flow, the biggest part of that number is just to come. It won't be in 2025. Of course, capitalized R&D has been cash effects already in the past.
Maybe in a nutshell, key statements: guidance would have been reaffirmed, EUR 1.8 billion, up to EUR 1.8 billion for the strategic realignment, stopping the development of the current electric platform, postponing it well into the 2030s, and changing the strategy into a more flexible and balanced approach when it comes to drivetrain strategy.
Jochen, Olli, thank you very much. The next in the row will be Mike Tinder. After this, we will take Patrick Hummel from UBS. After Patrick, I will hand over to Sebastian for the media.
Hopefully, you can hear me, gentlemen. Just a couple from me. I'm trying to understand the change to the midterm guidance. It looks like you've lost, in terms of profitability, roughly about EUR 1.5 billion of potential profit. All I can see to the midterm is the K1 project is now delayed. I'm trying to understand what the profitability is in terms of the products you're bringing to market, such that that opportunity set is now smaller. The second question, and I don't know if you can answer this, it looks to me as if your free cash flow guidance for this year is unchanged, but the free cash flow guidance at Volkswagen has actually declined. I don't know if you can help me reconcile those two, why yours is what appears to be unchanged and theirs is actually down. Thank you.
Yeah, OK. I think I start and take the question. Let me start with the second one. As you've correctly mentioned and spotted it in our guidance, we have not updated the automotive net cash flow margin for 2025. This is based on the fact that, as I've just said, we would have reaffirmed the complete guidance for the current fiscal year because all the headwinds that we see from tariffs, from China, from a slower trend into electric mobility are baked into that guidance. We do not have effects from that one. We just have the effect from the strategy change with the electric platform. Also, as I've just said, that doesn't come with a huge cash impact in 2025. Part of the cash is already spent for capitalized R&D and other investments that we need to depreciate now.
Other cash for provisions that we will post is yet to come. That's the reason why we have not updated our cash flow margin. We expect that we will reach that probably maybe below the midpoint, but yeah, well within the margin. The second part of the second question was concerning Volkswagen. There, I need to say, and I hope you understand that I can't comment on Volkswagen numbers and the effects that they have there, but the Porsche effects are just as outlined.
Yeah, next week we will have an investor's day in Munich. Maybe you come back with this question, and there we are in the group row.
Yeah, and the first question was on the updated midterm ambition, which is set at a double-digit return on sales at the lower end and then up to 15% in favorable market conditions. The major effects that we see and that we need to reflect, given that they are here to stay as far as we see, are that we have the U.S. tariffs of 15%, which is definitely a headwind. We have mitigating factors like pricing, but 15% is really a hit in the margin that we need to digest. A second slower BEV transition, including CO2 effects when it comes to regulatory requirements, especially in the European Union. We have China. The market situation in China doesn't look as it would change when it comes to exclusive segments in general, and especially for the electric segments.
You know that the luxury tax, for example, has just been lowered to RMB 900,000 , which puts some pressure on our model portfolio, especially on the Panamera, where cars all of a sudden get 12% more expensive without any value for the customers. That's something that we have to digest and work on. Pricing and competitive situation, especially in China, is challenging. Last but not least, looking at the midterm, the effects of depreciated currencies, like first and foremost the U.S. dollars, but also other currencies relevant to us, put headwinds to our business model because our very profound hedging strategy helps us this year, also to a huge extent next year. When we look at the midterm, of course, currency exposure can't be hedged in a suitable way, and that's something that we need to see how FX will develop over time.
These are the major effects, why we set the target to 10%- 15%. From our perspective, very ambitious given the world that we look at, the markets, and competitors. We will start as of 2026 to build the ramp, have a better result in 2026 than in 2025, obviously, given the updated numbers we've just communicated. We will take it from there.
Thank you. Thank you.
The last from analysts and investors will be Patrick. Patrick, please one question because we also need to change over then to the media.
Absolutely. Thank you for taking my question, Björn, and good evening, Olli and Jochen. My question is a very high-level fundamental one. Is Porsche still a luxury business model? Basically, when we look at the financial performance and the outlook, also medium term, these are not margins that one would expect to see in a luxury product, at least not in a successful one. That is very much linked to how we should value the stock. If I look at Mercedes, they've got a business plan. They want to do a double-digit margin from 2027 onwards. Their stock trades at 6x earnings. What I would like to hear from you is, do you still see Porsche as a luxury auto business model? Why is 10% everything you can do over the next few years, basically, or maybe slightly above?
Are you doing enough to restore Porsche as a truly luxury car brand with a luxury profitability?
Yeah, Patrick, let me start from the product point of view. Of course, we are still a luxury company and even more with the decisions we have taken and the huge investments we are putting into, investing in more core products based on the 911 to increase exclusivity, to bring a product in the SUV segment. All this will reflect our luxury positioning and will underline where Porsche is positioned. We are counting right now the youngest and maybe strongest product portfolio ever. All these products to come during the next three to five years are supporting being even better than today. Maybe I hand over to Jochen to underline our ambition in terms of financials.
Yeah. Olli, thanks. Also Patrick for the question, which is fully understood. As Olli said, a short answer is Porsche still luxury would be a simple yes, for sure.
This is a luxury business model in a completely changed and challenging environment. That's one. The second one is that I would like to draw your attention to, other than the return on sales margin, is also cash margin and cash conversion rate. This is very strong in our business model. You see that in the current year that we do not change the guidance. Also looking forward, we expect that we will have a very strong cash flow, great cash conversion rate. That needs to be valued against the backdrop of a very lean balance sheet with low vertical integration in our business model. With that, I think also the financial perspective for the years to come is a promising one given the situation and the markets that we are currently operating in.
Thank you. We switch to the media. The first question goes to Reuters. Christoph Steitz, the floor is yours. Just unmute your mic.
Can you hear me?
Yeah, we are.
Perfect. Thank you so much. One question on your outlook. You mentioned that your outlook factors in a 15% U.S. auto tariff from August 1st. Now, we're still waiting for that to actually happen. My question to you is, what's your confidence level in the U.S. standing by its promise? Have you had any recent discussions maybe with the administration that they will kind of make good on their promise to actually lower the tariffs? Maybe just as an add-on, what's the hit to the VW Group in terms of tariffs year- to- date? Thank you so much.
Yeah, Christoph, the only thing I can say to this, we have been together with Mrs. von der Leyen on Friday together with the European automotive manufacturers. She explained to us the situation right now and the position of the U.S. and the European Commission. We are in the hope that they will close the deal and sign the deal. We think it could last some days or weeks more, but that's not in our hands. What we are continuing to do, and I always talk about that, we are in constructive meetings with the U.S. government also to make an expansion proposal to the U.S. government with investments. The feedback was positive, and they are interested to do so. This could be a supporting part where we would put Porsche under the umbrella. First, we agreed to wait about the U.S.-European deal. Afterwards, we are continuing our talks.
We haven't got a result now, but we will see what will be the outcome together with the U.S. government.
The second question goes to the Financial Times. Sebastian Ash, just unmute your mic and the floor is yours.
Hi there. Thank you for taking my question. You said that you would continue producing ICE cars deep into the 2030s. Now, the European Union has a plan to ban the sale of ICE cars in 2035. I was wondering if you could tell me how Porsche's planning interacts with that European goal. I know there are other markets, but that is still the case in Europe. Just quickly as well, you said Porsche would be under the umbrella of U.S. investments. Can you elaborate on that in any way at all?
As we mentioned, we will have full flexibility in all our segments in between internal combustion engine, plug-in hybrids, and fully electric cars with our investments we have decided right now. We have this flexibility also in between the different regions of the world, especially in Europe, North America, and in China. This makes us robust for the future, especially in, and we have a well-balanced volume situation in between the regions. Therefore, we need this flexibility because the different regions of the world are moving with a different speed towards the transformation. On the other side, we are now in constructive discussions about what will happen in the EU and having now working groups. We are counting on more flexibility from 2035 onwards and taking into account a slower BEV ramp-up in Europe. I'm supporting realistic assessments yearly to adapt also the regulations.
I think the discussions have started on Friday last week, and we will continue it during the next weeks and months. I hope that we'll come to a conclusion giving the industry more flexibility. The headline for the future will remain having the responsibility for decarbonization, but it has to be realistic for the industry, also in terms of supporting with the right framework conditions in terms of charging infrastructure, energy pricing, and also supporting the energy ramp-up. In the meantime, for the next 10, 15 years, we will have now this very flexible model. Talking about what will be the outcome with the U.S. government, today, we haven't got a confirmation. We will intend to do so with an attractive package in terms of the Volkswagen Group. We are heavily invested, and we have growth opportunities. This could help the brands of Volkswagen Group also with a supportive agreement.
Today, we are not there. Once having the U.S. deal, we will continue to get in touch with the authorities of the U.S. government.
The last question goes to a German outlet, the FAZ, Benjamin Waganer. The floor is yours. You're still muted. Benjamin?
Sorry?
Yeah.
Yeah, no, we can hear you.
OK, I have one question. What does the Works Council say about these decisions, especially in view of the talks on the second savings package, which we are supposed to begin within the next few days? Have the talks already begun?
Yes, we have had a very constructive Supervisory Board today. The current situation is understood. We just launched our first package, already agreed with our Works Council, and we already started the discussions with our Works Council for the second package. The only thing I can say today is that the first meetings were very constructive, and our goal is to come to a conclusion during the next weeks and months.
Thank you to investors, analysts, and media for joining this call. Thanks to both of you, Oliver Blume and Jochen Breckner, and to my colleague Björn Scheib. Have a good evening. Bye-bye.
Good evening to all.
Have a great one, everyone.