During this call, we highly encourage you to review the disclaimer carefully. With this, now let's move to our fourth quarter deliveries. As you have seen in our sales release, Porsche delivered 279,400 vehicles globally.
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In 2025, reflecting an expected 10% decline year-over-year. This development is due to product runouts, market dynamics, particularly in China, and our continued focus on a value-oriented derivative mix. Electrified models accounted for around 34% of total deliveries, 7 percentage points higher than in the previous year. These comprise 22% fully electric and 12% plug-in hybrids. In Europe, electrified models exceeded combustion-only deliveries for the first time, reaching 58% electrification share, with approximately one in three vehicles fully electric. Our 911 continues to underline its iconic status, achieving an all-new record high at 52,000 units. The Macan remained the strongest model, with 84,300 units; more than half of these, which was 45,400, were all electric. North America continued as Porsche's largest single market, with 86,200 deliveries, maintaining the prior year's exceptionally high level despite the tariff environment and price adjustments in July.
The so-called region number five, which comprises overseas and emerging markets, also remained stable at around 55,000 units, continuing its strong performance trend. Now, China. China deliveries totaled 42,000 units, driven by ongoing market softness in the luxury segment and intense competitive pressure, particularly in the BEV space. Our strategic approach in China fully remains value-driven. So overall, Porsche's regional distribution remains highly balanced, even amid challenging geopolitical and economic dynamics. Despite market headwinds, Porsche strengthened its position in several market segments, supported by the successful launch of new and updated products. Customer demand for individualization remains strong, supported by strong interest in our Sonderwunsch program and Porsche's Exclusive Manufaktur, where capacity expansion is underway to meet growing demand. The production in the fourth quarter, as outlined, is expected to reflect our disciplined supply management, ensuring our stringent value-oriented sales strategy. Moving on to wholesales.
The wholesales in the fourth quarter are expected to align with our consistent value-driven sales strategy. The wholesales mix should closely mirror the retail trends previously outlined, and overall quarterly wholesales are anticipated to be broadly in line with the retail volumes. One more background. The significant year-over-year decline is primarily driven by two factors. One, the base effect. As in the fourth quarter last year, which means 2024, we had an exceptionally strong wholesale quarter, supported by the launch of the BEV Macan. Second, this year, in the fourth quarter, the wholesales reflect the temporary gaps in our product portfolio. We will continue to engage our dealers in a disciplined dealer inventory management across all regions. Let's move on now to the incoming orders. Given the macroeconomic trends, customer demand remains robust, reflecting continued enthusiasm for our products.
The high level of individualization in the order book highlights the strong desire among customers to configure and purchase their personal Porsche. Strong demand for the new 911 Turbo S, coupled with highly positive feedback from both media and customers, underscores the enduring appeal of our flagship model. Cayenne BEV launch is well received, and we have quite positive commercial feedback. Incoming orders are in line with market realities and in line with our targets. Overall, with the ramp-up of the BEV Cayenne and a slight normalization of the ICE Cayenne and the plug-in Cayenne in its fourth year, we expect an increase of total Cayenne sales in 2026. Now, move on to group revenues. As communicated during our most recent engagements with markets, revenues in the fourth quarter and for the full year 2025 are expected to reflect the significantly lower wholesales compared with the prior year.
However, supported by our consistent value-over-volume strategy and a strong premium product mix, pricing and mix effect remain positive contributors. As a result, the revenues of the fourth quarter and the fiscal year 2025 are expected to decline at a lower rate than wholesales. Now, strategic realignment. During the third quarter, we have taken comprehensive decisions in the realignment of our product strategy. While these decisions entail short-term financial burdens, they're essential to support Porsche's long-term success. The strategic approach reflects our response to an evolving global customer preferences and the moderated pace of electric mobility adoption. It also strengthens our flexibility for the years ahead. So for the fiscal year 2025, in this connection, Porsche expects approximately EUR 3.1 billion in extraordinary expenses related to this strategic realignment. These expenses encompass targeted adjustments to the product strategy, battery technology initiatives, and organizational transformation measures, and exclude the U.S. tariff
burdens.
While these investments temporarily weigh on the 2025 financial performance, they are critical to support Porsche's long-term competitiveness, sustainable growth, and brand strength. By the end of the third quarter, Porsche had recognized approximately EUR 2.7 billion of these charges. Now, let's talk about expenses. We expect continued inflationary pressure, particularly in material costs and in compensation payments to BEV suppliers, driven by lower-than-anticipated volumes. Ongoing investments in product quality, customer satisfaction, and CO2 initiatives are also expected to contribute to additional cost headwinds, all as outlined before. Following the launch of numerous new products in recent periods, we anticipate a sustained high level of D&A, and this is largely attributable to the IFRS capitalization of R&D expenditures and fixed assets. Given the temporary gaps in our product portfolio and the resulting significant lower unit sales volumes as such revenues, fixed cost absorption is expected to remain unfavorable.
Now, automotive net cash flow. The fourth quarter performance is expected to reflect seasonal year-end effects. In the fourth quarter, CapEx and R&D are anticipated to follow their seasonal patterns. For the fiscal year 2025, CapEx is expected to remain broadly in line with the previous year, while R&D spending is projected to be lower. Our automotive net cash flow guidance of 3%-5% is maintained. To round it up with the '25 guidance, core assumptions regarding unit sales, supply chain stability, and cost trends remained unchanged. Our 2025 outlook also reflects the U.S. import duty of 15% effective August 1 and 27.5% for the most part of the second quarter. We have proactively implemented mitigation measures, including targeted pricing adjustments, to preserve margin integrity. Our guidance for the fiscal year 2025 remains firm.
Group revenues in the magnitude of the lower end of the range of EUR 37 billion-EUR 38 billion. Group operating return on sales slightly positive to 2%, as outlined before, net cash flow margin of 3%-5%. And in the fourth quarter, as said before, we saw continued market volatility, but operational discipline and cost control measures at a high level. As outlined before, we had for the fiscal year 2025, EUR 3.1 billion in extraordinary expenses related to the strategic realignment. And in the fourth quarter, as such, we expect extraordinary expenses related to this realignment of roughly EUR 400 million. For the group return on sales, we reflect a high triple-digit million amount for U.S. import tariffs. For the fourth quarter standalone, we expect tariff-related expenses of around EUR 200 million.
Turning to the cash flow, the fourth quarter 2025 cash flow is expected to remain slightly positive, despite extraordinary outflows of around EUR 700 million, which are around 300-500 for the strategic realignment and 200 for the U.S. tariffs. On hedging, Porsche maintains a disciplined hedging strategy, ensuring substantial coverage for the fiscal year 2025 and adequate protection for the subsequent years. Now, before we finish, let us summarize what we have said about the outlook 2026 so far. Our business, consistent with the broader European automotive industry, is undergoing a period of significant transformation shaped by several structural factors. The slower-than-expected adoption of electric mobility across global regions, particularly within the exclusive and high-performance segment, which requires continued product portfolio and investment discipline. Softening demand for Western luxury goods in China, which continues to weigh on premium automotive brands, contributes to a more cautious environment.
Heightened geopolitical uncertainty, including U.S. import tariffs and China luxury tax, which is affecting industry visibility, cost structures, and overall planning reliability. On wholesales in 2026, as outlined in our sales release, we have a clear focus on 2026. We will continue to manage demand and supply in line with our value-over-volume strategy. At the same time, we are planning our 26 volumes realistically, taking into account the production phase-out of the combustion engine 718 and the ICE Macan, which is entering its final production year. To that degree, please note that the 718 in the fiscal year 2025, we had 15,000 + units. As such, retail and wholesale volumes are expected to come in below 2025 levels. At the same time, the share of BEVs in our mix will take another meaningful step up in 2026.
On pricing, we said we expect this to be positive, the 911 mix to be improving, but as outlined, the BEV share for the entire sales to expect to share increase significant. CO2 and FX expected to trend negative versus 2025, mainly driven by exposure to the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen against a stronger euro. On the expense side, also in 2026, we expect continued inflationary pressure, particularly in material costs and in compensation payments to BEV suppliers, driven by lower-than-anticipated volumes. Investments in product quality and customer satisfaction are also expected to contribute to additional cost headwinds. Following the launch of numerous new products in recent periods, we anticipate a sustained high level of depreciation and amortization. And given the broadening gap in our product portfolio and the resulting significant lower sales volumes, fixed cost absorption is expected to stay unchanged, unfavorable.
On the positive hand, the cost base will benefit from ongoing and expanded Push-to-Pass initiatives focused on operational performance, working capital discipline, and cost efficiency. Our priorities remain operational discipline, cost management, and disciplined capital allocation to safeguard profitability and long-term resilience. Now to our expenses that are expected to recur in connection with the strategic realignment. Some expenses in connection with the strategic realignment will recur in 2026, but these will be significantly lower compared to 2025. We expect around EUR 500 million-EUR 600 million related to product, labor, and battery activities. Please note at this stage, there's no update regarding a potential second package of the labor agreement. This is in the making. Expenses in connection with U.S. tariffs. Tariff costs for 2026 are expected based on the 15% regime to remain at around EUR 700 million. As such, these remain broadly in line with the fiscal year
2025.
Based on these assumptions and the recurring expenses outlined in connection with the strategic realignment and tariffs, and as shared in our Q3 call and reiterated afterwards, we have envisioned targeting a high single-digit group operating return on sales, thus above mid-one digit and well below double digit. Please note all these statements were shared based on the currently applicable U.S. tariff rate of 15%. Following the announcements made last week, Porsche is closely monitoring any further development. Please note that within this pre-close call, we can only share publicly available information and previously communicated statements. Therefore, we are not in a position to comment or to speculate about potential impacts should tariff levels change. Now, a couple of words also on the net cash flow for the fiscal year 2026. For 2026, we expect a robust underlying operational business.
We expect significantly lower CAPEX related to the ongoing business and continued execution of Push-to-Pass initiatives focusing on enhanced operational performance and tighter working capital management. At the same time, we expect cash outflows in connection with the strategic realignment. In 2026, Porsche expects significant outflows primarily driven by supplier-related cash outflows in connection with the strategic realignment and the expected license payment to Audi of more than EUR 1 billion. In that context, please note this will be EUR 1 billion +. Cash outs in connection with U.S. tariffs are expected to be broadly in line with the previous year. This under the assumption we have a 15% regime. Before we end, a couple of words on our dividend. Porsche recognizes the importance of a reliable and predictable dividend for its long-term shareholders.
In this context, the executive board intends to propose a dividend for fiscal year 2025 that deviates from the medium-term dividend policy. While the proposed dividend will be materially lower than in the previous year, it is expected to be above our 50% payout ratio. This approach reflects both our commitment to financial discipline and our focus on long-term value creation. As always, the final decision on the dividend amount will be taken by the responsible corporate bodies. Now, upcoming IR events. Porsche's Q4 and full year 2025 results will be published on March 11 in the morning. The analysts and investors call with our new CEO, Dr. Michael Leiters, and our CFO, Dr. Jochen Breckner, will take place at 11:30 A.M. Central European Time. Following the call, we will send out a template for your estimates to compile our company consensus, which we will be happy to share afterwards.
Please send us your estimates on the statements of today's call based on the currently existing tariff regime. This makes it easier to compile a reliable consensus as such that we have numbers sent in all on the same basis in expectation of a 15% regime. Otherwise, it would be difficult to provide you with a reliable consensus. So we would highly appreciate your support and kindly ask you to return your estimates by January 22nd, end of business. With this, we now move on to the Q&A session.
Excellent, Björn. Thank you. First one in the line is Patrick.
Yeah, thank you, Alex. Hi, Björn. Thanks for taking my question. One relatively straightforward one. Has management talked about. Yes, can you hear me? Hello?
I can't hear him.
Hello?
I can hear him. Can you? Not me.
Let me know when you hear me. Hello, hello.
Just a second, Patrick. I can hear you.
Okay, perfect. Great. Thank you. Thanks, Björn. Simple question. Has your management commented during the last couple of months where you see yourself ending up within that zero or slightly above 0%- 2% margin corridor for the full year? Is it reasonable to assume midpoint of the range? The reason why I'm asking is, pretty simply put, if I take the midpoint for the full year, that would get us to an exit rate for the fourth quarter of around 4% margin or so. And your comments for 2026 obviously suggest it's going to be more than five. So I'm just wondering what kind of the exit rate of the fourth quarter should be to better understand the bridge from here. Thank you very much. And by the way, thanks for returning to morning results disclosure. That's much appreciated.
Noted, we also have your feedback on Friday disclosures after market close in mind. As I said, this was not an active approach from this company. Long story short, it's absolutely fair to assume that the company will be well in the range of the guidances. Let us put it as such. We deliver upon our guidance for the fiscal year 2025, and then we open a new book to the degree for 2025. As such, let me also add the following. I'm 100% sure you or the next in the row will ask, what is Michael Leiters's plan? Is there anything that we can already share from the most recent communication that we had been giving on such? Let me add on this one.
Michael brings a broad set of experience from his roles in the past from Porsche as the CTO of Ferrari and the CFO of McLaren, and returning to Porsche represents for him really a special responsibility, and he's fully aware of the high expectations that are placed on him inside of the company, but also from capital markets, and as such, he views the Porsche brand and the company as absolutely unique and approaches the role with the highest respect, and he has prepared extensively for the role and defined his first objective as establishing quickly and jointly a clear and shared view of Porsche structured as a comprehensive health check and the areas that he focused, what is defining Porsche, what differentiates us, and what do we need and what not.
With this, you will also see customer in the primary focus and in the center of everything and a strengthening of the entrepreneurial mindset. With this, he will do everything together with the team, which is necessary to bring Porsche back to global leadership. Even if you haven't asked, I would love to add this because. You read my mind, Björn, and I was thinking about asking, but I thought you would not answer it. That's why I asked you. No, look, it's absolutely clear that you would have asked about it and would have been ultra defensive not to say anything. Give Michael his 100 days for the analysis for getting a clearer picture. On the March 11th , you will get an update about what we are saying for 2026 and what we give here to the degree of Porsche strategy.
And it's absolutely fair to assume that in the course of the year, then we will also host a Capital Markets Day. Right. So no question about where you landed effectively for FY 2025 within a relatively wide corridor. For the zero to two, obviously, it's fair to expect that we are in the midpoint.
Thank you very much. Very clear.
And as said, don't take a single quarter to read too much into this. 2025 was an annus horribilis, and we delivered on our guidance, but now it's about opening a new page or a new chapter in Porsche, and then we carry on.
Thank you, Björn.
Thank you, Patrick. And next one is Horst.
Yeah, hello. I hope you can hear me.
Yes.
Okay, great. I have got more detailed questions, please. On the wholesales, Björn, what you said, you said significantly down.
Does that mean also for the fourth quarter that basically wholesales were, as in the quarters before, below retail sales so that we have kind of destocking? That's number one. Sorry, I cannot hear you. Okay. Can you hear me now or not? Yeah. I can repeat your question, Horst. The question was if wholesales are, as in the previous quarter, below retails.
Yes, thanks, Horst. As I said earlier in the call, wholesales in this quarter are at around the level of the retails.
Okay, I missed that. Sorry. Okay. Then the other question that I have is when you talk about tariff impact, -EUR 200 million in Q4, that includes the price impact or that is just the tariff impact?
Can you please repeat? I cannot hear it. The EUR 200 million of tariff impact in Q4, is that a net number or simply the impact on the expenses?
That's a net number. Net number.
Okay. Then the last one.
We said tariff impact is 200.
The last question that I have.
This is the whole high triple digit, which is around 700. This is the burden that we are discounting in our numbers.
Okay. Great. Understood. The last question that I have is on your 2026 outlook. You said that wholesales could be down in 2026. If I remember right, in the Q3 call, it was said that this does not mean that the revenues are down, but I have missed the statement. Is that still the case that declining wholesales does not mean that the revenues also decline?
You got it, Björn?
I cannot hear anything. My speaker doesn't work.
The question was that it was raised at the Q3 call that despite the lower volumes, we expect for 2026 volumes would not be down, that revenues would not be down, if that's still the case.
Thank you.
Mr. Stumm. Björn.
Sorry. Obviously, there's an issue with my speaker. Therefore, now I put on my phone that you can hear me. The company said in this pre-close call earlier that we expect for this year, and this is coming back to the statement of Horst, for the fiscal year 2026, as outlined in our sales release, we have a clear focus for 2026. We will continue to manage demand and supply in line with our value over volume strategy.
As such, we are planning our 2026 volumes realistically, taking into account the product phase-out of the combustion engine 718, where we said earlier in 2025 it was around 15,000, and the Macan, which is entering the final production year. On pricing, we said in this call, pricing expected to remain positive. 911 mix is expected to improve, and the BEV share is expected to increase significantly. As such, we can only reiterate our statements because the company has not given a revenue guidance about the fiscal year 2026. But you have heard our comment about the fiscal year 2025, where there was a combination addressed from volume decline versus price and mix. This should also give you some idea.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you, Horst. Next one is [Christian Funes].
Yeah. Hi. Can you hear me?
I can hear you.
Great. Hey, Alex. Hey, Björn.
Thanks for taking my question. You just said that the 911 mix should continue to improve in 2026, but the 911 volumes in 2025 are already at very robust levels. Should we expect further growth than in the 911 volume in 2026? And what can you tell us about the visibility from the order book? How much of 2026 is covered by the order book, and does it stretch into 2027 specifically for the Turbo S or GTS? Thanks.
Christian. Do you hear me?
I can hear you. Following comment on this one. As said before, the company has not given any guidance to the degree on single product lines. Only one comment about the BEV Cayenne in combination with the ICE and plug-in Cayenne in order to illustrate what we expect about volumes to give you some hint with the degree of these products.
On the 911, the company has not given a specific volume guidance because we don't run the 911 on volume goals. That will all depend on our aligning demand and supply, but we made clear that the mix of the 911 volume will be a quite satisfying one. To the degree about the transparency for the 911 Turbo S, I would just simply answer this with a smile. This is nothing that should concern you.
Okay. Thanks.
Perfect. Thank you, Christian. And next one in the line is [rederico].
Hi all. Thanks for taking my question. I have one with respect to the pricing policy and its dynamics. Do you plan to increase the prices, if it's possible to know, for the 2026?
Please understand that for competitive and antitrust reasons, the company would never discuss its pricing position to the degree what is planned, what is in the making, and what we would implement in the course of the year. From the past, you can draw some conclusions what Porsche is doing to the degree of product introductions, to the degree of new model years, and also to the degree if, for example, regimes with the degree of extra payments that one has to pay given countries change their import regimes. But it's far too early to give any statement about this, but you have seen how the company acted in the past.
Thank you, [Federico]. And last but not least, we've got José.
Thank you, Alex. Thank you, Björn. A couple of questions, please. Can you repeat the comments around CapEx for the fourth quarter?
Can you also repeat any comments that were provided in the past weeks with regards to CapEx for 2026, higher, lower, in line with 2025? And then three, the prototype or the launch of the first glimpse of the new Macan PHEV, when should we expect? Is this a possibility in 2026, or is this more of a 2027 event? Thank you.
To the degree of CapEx, we said earlier in this pre-close call, the fourth quarter 2025 CapEx and R&D are anticipated to follow their typical seasonal patterns. So for the fiscal year 2025, CapEx is expected to remain broadly in line with 2024, while R&D spending is projected to be lower. This was the statement on 2025. On 2026, we said in this call, just a second, for the fiscal year 2026, we expect significantly lower CapEx related to the ongoing business.
We said on top of the significantly lower CapEx for the operational business, you will see a EUR 1+ billion license payment to Audi. The CapEx for the ongoing business will be significantly lower.
Thank you.
I don't know if we, sorry.
There was just a follow-up. There was a last question there about the launch of the Macan PHEV. Is that more of a 2027 event? Do we get a chance to see a glimpse in 2026?
As far as I understand, the company has not been saying anything about this in the most recent management events. As such, I would also be well advised to stay to the rules of this pre-close call and not to share anything that goes beyond what we had been communicating beforehand.
But it's fair to assume that we will run a capital markets day later in the year, and I'm sure that your interest in our products will not be reduced by then. Thank you very much. José, I'm very sorry. We all have to stick to the rules. This is a pre-close call. We can only share what we have been communicating before, but we do a capital markets day later in the year.
Perfect. We've got some additional raised hands. Next one on the line is Michael.
Thanks, gents. Björn, a question around supply compensation. So we've got kind of two pieces to this puzzle. We've got the cancellation of the, was it the SSP 61 platform? And I guess there's a piece associated with that. And then there's another piece associated with their volumes being lower than you originally projected. That second piece, when does that run off?
When do we get to a point where, I mean, presumably your volumes will never be as contracted, but how long? Do we have any sense of how long those contracts are going to run for? Are they for the full model life? Let's put it that way.
I fully understand your interest, but as said before, this is a pre-close call, and as far as I'm very sorry, this question is to wait by March 11.
All right. Speak to you then.
Thanks, Michael. Philippe is next on the line.
Yes. Thank you. Yeah. I'm sticking to what you have said already, but I think you're telling us today, and if you can clarify, you're telling us today that CapEx will be flat down, but you're talking about EUR 1 + billion paid to Audi.
Are you going to capitalize that payment to Audi, or is it going to be expense? Is it an expense that going to EBIT, or is it going to be capitalized and will depreciate later? In that case, it is CapEx up, isn't it?
Philippe, let me repeat. The operational CapEx. And this is the CapEx for the organic operations, which was in the fiscal year, just to repeat the numbers, 2024, at around EUR 2.1 billion, which was the starting point where we said that CapEx in the fiscal year 2025 will be at the same level. This now gets us to the point that we say for the fiscal year 2026, CapEx will be significantly lower for the operational business. Yeah? But we'll then get EUR 1+ billion for the license payments for the platforms to Audi on top.
So the reported CapEx, to be clear, will be significantly above the reported number 2025. This is what you should read in our statements from the pre-close call. Now, to your accounting-related question, as all CapEx, that will go on our balance sheet and then will be depreciated thereafter. But please note that a platform that Porsche would have developed itself would have significantly added more assets to the balance sheet. As such, this approach with the licensing, again, plays into our strategy about lean vertical integration, low vertical integration, and as such, not building the asset base of Porsche in order to stay robust and, last but not least, agile and flexible. Does this help?
It's very clear. Thank you for the clarification. Yeah.
Absolutely fine.
Oh, and last but not least, Horst once more.
Yes, thank you. I'm just double-checking.
When you talked about margins 2026, Björn, you said above 5% and well below 10. Is that right?
Oh, sorry. This is exactly the wording that we have been sharing beforehand. If you're interested, I can read it out once again.
No, no, no, no, no. I was just not sure if you said above five and below 10, but you confirmed that you said well below 10. You do not need to read that out. No worries, Björn.
And this is, Horst, also based on today's expectation. This is based on today's statements about the assumptions and the tariff regime as we have outlined it explicitly. This is important. This is that we all agree on the assumptions, expectations, sales volumes, pricings, mixes, as such as outlined before.
Yeah. Okay. All right. Thank you.
You're welcome. Thank you very much.
And I think with that, this is concluding our pre-close call for the full year.
Thank you very much for joining in. Stay all safe and healthy, and we will send out our sheet in the next days. And with this, have a lovely evening, afternoon, or morning, wherever you listened in. Thank you and bye-bye.
Thank you. Thank you.