Come on, let's get started. Welcome to the Porsche AG pre-close call, and thank you very much for joining us today. Following the release of our Q1 2026 delivery figures last Friday, today's call is designed to provide analysts and investors with a comprehensive update. We will summarize key data from the sales release and highlight from most recent public statements made by management at road shows, conferences, and other events. We will also reiterate selected messages from all of our full year 2025 earnings calls and other communication. Please note, this is our only pre-close communication ahead of our full Q1 release, and we will enter in our quiet period immediately after this call.
If you receive questions during this Q&A that go beyond the scope of our latest public disclosures, we kindly ask for your understanding that we will address those in conjunction with our Q1 2026 earnings release on Wednesday, April 29th, after the market close. Before we begin, please note that today's presentation contains forward-looking statements, and as such, our safe harbor language and cautionary notes provided on the slide apply to all statements made during this call. We encourage you to review the disclaimer carefully. Now, deliveries in the first quarter of this year, Porsche delivered 60,991 sports cars in the first quarter. This is a decline of 15% year-over-year. The decline was anticipated and reflected our guidance that we gave in March.
The development is driven by expected model and market-related effects, most notably the end of the production of the 718 model range and the prior year ramp-up of the all-electric Macan. In addition, there was the discontinuation of tax incentives for electric and hybrid vehicles in the United States, which had an effect on demand. The Porsche 911 remains in very strong shape. We recognize quite strong demand with deliveries up by 22%. Across all model lines, the derivative mix was quite well-balanced, and we had a very strong share of GTS, Turbo, or GT models. Let me repeat, this is across all model lines and not 911 only. North America, once again, was the largest sales region with 18,344 vehicles delivered. Overall, deliveries remained well-balanced despite ongoing economic and geopolitical challenges.
Our focus in the coming months is on the market launch of the fully electric Cayenne, with first customer deliveries starting this summer. Let us also give you the statements that we have given in the most recent past on the Middle East. Porsche is carefully monitoring the developments, and unit sales in the region equal around 2% of all global unit sales. Overall, Porsche has got a quite robust order book in the region. However, due to the impacted vehicle logistics into the region and a softening demand reflecting the current geopolitical uncertainty, temporary volume effects have to be expected. On the production side, Q1 is expected to reflect our disciplined supply management, aligned with the consistent execution of our value over volume sales strategy. Wholesale in the first quarter are expected to align with our consistent, value-driven sales strategy.
The wholesale mix should closely mirror the retail trends previously outlined, and overall, quarterly wholesales are anticipated to be slightly below retail sales. We continue to adopt a disciplined approach to dealer inventory management across all regions. Incoming orders; g iven the macroeconomic trends, customer demand remains robust, reflecting continued enthusiasm for our products. The high level of individualization and mix in our order book highlights the strong desire among customers to configure and purchase their personal individual Porsche. Talking about revenues. As communicated during our most recent engagements, revenues in the first quarter are expected to reflect the significantly lower wholesale volumes compared with the prior year. At the same time, reflecting our stringent value over volume strategy and a strong product mix, pricing and mix remain positive contributors. As a result, revenues in the first quarter are expected to decline at a lower rate than the wholesales.
Let's talk about the strategic realignment. Since the beginning of the year, our new CEO, Michael Leiters, together with the Porsche leadership team, has conducted a thorough, systematic, and fact-based review of the company. We have taken an open, honest look at what is working well and where decisive action is required. There's no doubt, many things are working quite well. Our brand remains exceptionally strong globally. Customer loyalty is high, reflecting the uniqueness of our products, and demand for our core products is fundamentally intact in many markets. At the same time, we are clear-eyed and realistic about the challenges ahead. We face structural issues relating to volumes, cost levels, portfolio complexity, and organizational efficiency. In parallel, the external environment has become significantly more demanding, with increased volatility across regions and markets. While conducting this comprehensive review, we did not stand still.
We have already initiated targeted measures, including the consistent and disciplined application of our value over volume principle, particularly in China, a quality-driven and carefully phased ramp-up of production for the all-electric Cayenne, and a sharper focus on our core business and profitability drivers. With a clear strategic roadmap in place, we are recalibrating and rescaling the company with one overarching objective to restore Porsche's long-term competitiveness, resilience, and financial strength. These steps are important, but this is only the beginning. Now, expenses. In the first quarter of this year, we expect charges in connection with the strategic realignment of around EUR 100 million related to product, battery activities, and continued focus on our core business. Tariffs are expected to amount to around EUR 200 million.
We expect inflationary pressure to persist in our operational business, particularly in material costs and among others, driven also by memory chips or compensation payments to BEV suppliers. You see, this is all not new. This is the same language that you have been hearing in context of our full-year disclosure. The latter, which is the compensation payments to BEV suppliers, is driven by lower than anticipated volumes. In addition, further investment in our product quality and customer satisfaction will add to cost headwinds. Following the launch of multiple new products in recent periods, we have to anticipate a continued high level of depreciation and amortization from CapEx and capitalized R&D. Moreover, temporary portfolio gaps are expected to continue to weigh on the fixed cost absorption. On the positive side, our cost base will benefit from the continued execution of our Push-to-Pass initiatives.
These will have a clear focus on operational performance, cost efficiencies, and working capital discipline. CO2 regulation and foreign exchange rates are expected to trend negatively against last year, and we continue to pursue a disciplined hedging strategy with a substantial portion of our 2026 currency exposure already secured. While this enhances planning certainty and margin protection, euro appreciation remains a headwind through both translation and transaction effects. Let's now turn to the Group EBIT. The first quarter performance is expected to be fully in line with all previous assumptions and should reflect the key drivers we outlined at the time of the full-year disclosure. Group return on sales in the first quarter is expected to come in around the upper end of the full-year 2026 guidance corridor, underlining the resilience of our earnings profile despite the challenging market environment.
To be clear, this is the reported number, including all expenses that we outlined earlier. The first quarter performance at net cash flow is expected to reflect quite solid operational performance, as well as quite disciplined working capital management. The Q1 2026 reported CapEx is expected to come in slightly below the prior year level, and the Q1 2026 reported CapEx is expected to include the first tranche of the Audi license agreement payment, amounting to a low triple-digit million euro figure. As a result, CapEx related to the operating business is expected to be temporarily lower in Q1, with higher CapEx over the coming quarters. R&D spending is also expected in the first quarter to be below last year's level.
Overall, automotive net cash flow in the first quarter is expected to reflect cash outflows of around EUR 400 million for the strategic realignment, mainly related to these measures and including the first tranche of the Audi license agreement payment. In addition, we expect tariff-related payments of around EUR 200 million. Now, final words about the Outlook 2026. In the wholesale area, the end of production of the 718 in 2025 and of the combustion engine Macan in mid-2026 will create temporary gaps in our product portfolio.
This has been fully reflected in our planning for 2026, and we are working closely with our sales regions and will continue to manage demand and supply consistently in line with our value over volume strategy. As a result, retail and wholesale volumes are expected to remain below 2025 levels and at the same time, the launch of the new Cayenne Electric will drive a further increase in the share of the BEV in our mix in 2026. Overall, Porsche expects a Group Return on Sales of 5.5%-7.5% and an Automotive Net Cash Flow Margin of 3%-5%. Our guidance includes around EUR 800 million-EUR 900 million of extraordinary expenses in relation to our continued strategic realignment. The Group Return on Sales guidance also includes an estimated EUR 700 million from U.S. import tariffs, broadly consistent with last year.
Automotive net cash flow for the full year 2026 is expected to reflect cash outs of around EUR 1.4 billion-EUR 1.5 billion, mainly related to strategic realignment measures, including the Audi license payment of around a billion. In addition, we expect tariff payments of around EUR 700 million. Adjusted for the cash outs related to the strategic realignment, underlying operating automotive net cash flow is expected to be significantly higher than in 2025. Our increased focus on the core business may also result in selective adjustments to our portfolio of shareholdings. We talked about the focus on our core business earlier. Potential M&A activities relating to the divestment of non-core shareholdings are not included in the outlook, due to their uncertain nature. However, if successfully executed, such transaction could result in one-offs.
Let me also repeat, the current situation in the Middle East and any further deterioration of the situation could adversely affect supply chains and demand. These potential effects are not reflected in our outlook. Before we come to the end, a short word about the strategy. Looking ahead, we will deliver an even more compelling and differentiated product offering in the segments most relevant to Porsche. At our Capital Markets Day in autumn, we will provide you with the full update on Strategy 2035. Implementing this strategy requires difficult decisions, but history shows that periods of disruption also create opportunity, and Porsche has proven several times, and again, that it can emerge stronger. Our identity is clear and unchanged. Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG, Die Sportwagenschmiede. That is our promise to customers, to employees, and to you as analysts and investors.
Our upcoming IR events are the Q1 2026 results that will be published on Wednesday, April 29, after the market close. The analyst/i nvestors call will be hosted by our CFO, Dr. Jochen Breckner, and will take place at 6:00 Central European Time P.M. Following the call, and we mean now this call, we will send out a template for you to hand in your estimates. As such, we can compile the company consensus, which we will be happy to share with you afterwards. Please send us your estimates based on the statements of today's call and the currently existing U.S. tariff regime by April 15. With this, thank you very much for your attention and let's see if there's a couple of questions left over.
Perfect. Thank you, Björn. I think the first in the row was Horst, and he put down his hand and now back up. Horst, I would ask you to go first.
It is great. Thank you for that. Indeed, I pulled back and came back. The first question that I have is on this wholesales versus retail sales. Björn, if I got you right, you were saying that wholesales were weaker than retail sales. Not sure if I got that right. On the -EUR 200 million tariff impact, I guess this is a net impact and includes in also the price impact. Is it true?
Yeah. Horst, you're absolutely right. When we talk about the tariff effects, and this is for the fiscal year as a whole, the EUR 700 million and for the EUR 200 million in the first quarter, we talk about the net effects. This is what we expect to account within the EBIT. For your question about the wholesale, yes, you are absolutely right.
You cannot quantify that more, right, to what extent wholesales were below retail sales?
No, but we gave you a qualitative statement that we said we anticipated to be slightly below retail volumes w hich can give you some indication. We had retails of 61,000, and we hinted it would be slightly lower.
Okay. Middle East, apart from the effect that you mentioned on deliveries, has no major impact so far, because Mercedes just said in their pre-close call that they see basically some impact on overall car demand. I think that is a more recent trend. It was not really quantified or qualified, but you don't see anything like that, given the statements that you made.
Very difficult to comment on statements by other companies. We can only say, for us, the Middle East is around 2% of global sales. As with obviously anybody, the supply chains into the regions are currently disrupted. As said earlier, we are carefully monitoring the development. If this all will continue, we also cannot rule out that there will be effects on the demand side in that region. As such, we gave our statements. All else from today's perspective is difficult to judge.
Okay.
There's obviously one thing clear. The longer this conflict takes, obviously there will be larger effects as if the conflict would end tomorrow or yesterday.
I hope it ends tomorrow. Thank you.
Thank you, Horst. Next one in the line is Patrick.
Thank you. Hi, Björn. Hey, Alex.
Hi, Patrick.
Hi. First question is regarding the first quarter mix. You obviously had a solid performance for the 911 range. I was wondering if you can be a bit more specific within the 911, whether there was a particularly high share of the Turbo S, given its early months after the ramp-up, I would assume that contributed substantially. Just to better understand how much of a sort of one-off that high 911 mix could be, and whether it would tail off in the coming quarters. Any color would be appreciated. The second one, you repeated some comments on the raw material side and chips. If I remember from the annual call, what you haven't mentioned now was that you had a high share of hedging for this year that would protect you from rising raw materials costs.
In light of what we've seen now in commodity markets over the last month and a half, can you just comment on that risk, on that open position for the rest of the year? Would you still say that this is a limited risk because you're mostly hedged, or are we running into potential issues in the second half? Thank you.
First of all, in the intro, we gave a specific statement that we said, we see across all model lines that the derivative mix is with a quite strong share of GTS, Turbo, or GT models. First of all, we all tend to focus on the 911 only. First of all, the mix is not strong in the 911 only, but also in the other product lines. Coming back to your specific question, obviously, the Turbo is a product that resonates quite well with our customer base. At the same time, please understand that we don't provide more detailed statements on the mix of single products or model lines. At the same time, you should not expect that the Turbo for the 911 is a one-time effect. This would be surprising to you, and this would be surprising to us. Now, a word about raw materials.
We did imply with the wording today to tell you that situation on the expense and on the cost side are unchanged, that we overall have a certain expectation about the inflationary environment. You're absolutely right to this degree that if the conflict in the Middle East persists longer, that it could have certain effects on certain materials, and I expect you imply the risk, in particular, coming from aluminum. Aluminum at the moment is not a shortage to the degree of supply, but we cannot rule out if the conflict persists longer, that you would see an increase in the aluminum spot prices. As you highlight, we also have hedging and some countermeasures. It's too early, as also with the demand side, to draw conclusions from the current status quo to the future because we all don't know how long this conflict is going to last.
Thank you very much, Björn.
Thank you, Patrick. Next one is Jose.
Thank you, Björn and Alex. A couple of questions, please. Can you comment if there have been any comments in the last weeks with regards to the impact in the first quarter on revenues with regards to pricing and mix, and whether this is a substantial positive in the quarter offsetting to a large extent the volume decline? Any color around those pockets? Second, Björn, can you repeat again, please, the comments you gave on Q1 cash? I think you mentioned something around, apologies, the line was not clear here, but something around the strategic realignment and second, on tariffs, what were the cash outflows, which brings the total cash into Q1? Thank you.
Absolutely, no problem. First, on revenues, we said that we have a stringent value over volume strategy and a strong product mix, strong pricing, and as such, the decline in revenues is lower rate than wholesales. To your point, yes, it's true that because of the gaps in the product portfolio and last year's ramp up of the E Macan , we have significant lower unit sales. At the same time, mix and pricing are positive contributors. Now, coming to your question about the cash, let me just read out what we said earlier. We have in this quarter, and this is the first quarter 2026, cash out for the strategic realignment of around EUR 400 million. This includes the first tranche of the Audi license agreement payments. In addition, we said we expect tariff-related payments of around EUR 200 million. In total, around EUR 600 million for cash outs in the first quarter.
Thank you.
Still, the company made clear in this pre-close call that the first quarter net cash flow performance is expected to reflect quite solid operating performance, as well as quite disciplined working capital management. We also made clear that the CapEx related to the ongoing business in the first quarter is obviously temporary lower. Does this help?
Super. Thank you.
Very good.
Perfect. Thank you, Jose. Next one in the line is Henning.
Hi. Thanks both. I just had a clarification or a couple with respect to full-year volume. I believe at the full-year stage, you were talking about significantly lower volume year-over-year, and I didn't hear the significant wording today, so I just wanted to double-check or clarify. Are you still expecting significantly lower volume for the full year 2026, which implies more or less -10% year-over-year? There are other pieces on China specifically. There were Bloomberg headlines on the afternoon of the full-year call, quoting yourselves that the China volume would be seen around 30,000 units for the full year. I wasn't able to verify where that exactly came from and if you had entertained that, so if you could just clarify both of those. Thank you.
Let me put it this way. The number that you're highlighting here is coming in context with the retails. We gave the statement in the full year disclosure that we said we expect retail to be significantly below the prior year. The number that we discussed today over here was wholesales, and as you had been mentioning, the statement that we gave here is that we expect the wholesale volume to remain below 2025.
Okay. Thank you. And the 30,000 for China?
I expect this was a statement that was coming from the conference call where there was a statement about the volumes in China. Here it was said that we expect a number for the Chinese market of, I cannot remember if a specific number was given. This is a number between 30 and 40, but direction-wise, more in the direction of the 30.
Thank you, Björn.
Thank you, Henning. Next one in line is Anthony.
Yes. Thank you. Just a quick one on the strategic realignment costs, only EUR 100 million in Q1. I was just wondering if there's a particular reason why these costs should increase over the coming quarters, or if you've been a bit more effective at managing these costs versus your initial expectations for the full year rate of EUR 800 million-EUR 900 million? Thank you.
Absolutely. These charges occur based on the decision that get taken, and from that point of view, you have a certain seasonality in the course of the year, but the number EUR 800 million-EUR 900 million stands as of today. From that point of view, it's fair to expect that if it's EUR 100 million now, that in the coming quarters, there will be quarters with a higher number, and as such, we would leave it with this statement because all else would lead to further discussions about potential decisions being taken, and as of now, this would not be falling under the fair disclosure regulations that we have to apply with this pre-close call.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Thank you, Anthony. Last one in the line is [Tim Rokossa].
Thanks for taking my question, both. I think this could be the first time that qualitative comments have been made about non-911 top-end derivatives, and I just wondered whether management has commented about the profitability of, let's say, the Cayenne GTS or the Macan Turbo, relative to the equivalent derivatives of the 911?
Absolutely fair attempt and nice try. To the degree, there's only one word that we generally use when we talk about profitability of single products. It's the German auskömmlich, which means quite satisfying. No, without joking, you're absolutely right that the GTS for sure has a far better profitability than, for example, base model of the Cayenne. It's absolutely fair to expect that if you have a highly individualized vehicle and the combination of Paint to Sample or others, that you can also generate quite attractive margins that compare to profitability levels of other products. Please understand, as a general rule, the company would not specify either rankings of profitability nor quantifications of the profitability of single product or product lines. As said, in particular, if the vehicles are getting individualized, they have a quite auskömmlich gross margin profitability level.
Great. Thanks, Björn. I appreciate it.
With this, I would also point to that statements, and these are also public from the full-year disclosure, that in context of the strategic realignment, the company for sure, with the discussions about the expansion of the future product portfolio, is also more seeking the white spots in the product portfolio that also offer attractive profitability and gross margin of the single products. Last but not least, the company will for sure also grant more optionality and availability of individualization going forward, which is exactly the points that I just mentioned that are the contributors to future profitability and margin.
Whilst I perhaps have the mic, how much of the derivative mix of, let's say, the Cayenne is mechanical because of its kind of ramp down and then ramp back up at the end of this year, versus, let's say, a sustainable operating environment?
This is obviously something which would not fall under the rules of such a pre-close call. I would recommend that we park this question, and you may bring it up with the Q1 disclosure again. At the same time, I would argue that taking a look at the unit sales development of the Cayenne, in the fiscal year 2025 and fiscal year 2026 and fiscal year 2024, there's a certain life cycle effect of the Cayenne as well. The only thing that we newly bring in is the new electric Cayenne. Here also, the normal patterns of the introduction of a vehicle would apply.
With this, thank you very much. I recognize there's no further questions being left open. Thank you very much for your attention. The team will distribute the Excel sheet after this call, and we very much look forward to see you either with the test drive of the electric Cayenne in Portugal, or we're going to see each other on the Q1 conference call at the end of the month. Thank you very much.