Ladies and gentlemen, dear all, thank you very much for dialing in, and a very warm welcome to our Analyst Call regarding PBB's Second Quarter and Half Year Results for 2023. I'm happy to walk you through the key developments, and we will have our usual Q&A session thereafter. The environment remained challenging in Q2, especially for the real estate markets in Germany and Europe, and in U.S. and the U.K. At the same time, interest rates continued to rise also in the second quarter, inflation kept high, and some economies are at the edge of recession. Despite all that, PBB remains on track. PBT was EUR 81 million for the first half. On this basis, we are able and happy to confirm our full-year guidance of EUR 170 million to EUR 200 million for 2023.
As you know, the bank debut was fully booked in Q1. No further effects in the second half of 2023, and looking ahead, we expect the second half to benefit from increasing NII dynamics. Also, potential risk provisioning should benefit from our solid stock of provisions and management overlay. Real estate files portfolios strongly increased by EUR 900 million to EUR 30.2 billion, with improving margin. There were almost no prepayments. New business margin stays on elevated level of 200 basis points. The new business volume starts low in reflection of market environment, therefore, we adjust our full year guidance to EUR 6.5 billion-8 billion. Still a good figure, we believe, in current market environment as we stay selective and rather opt for strong margins than for higher volumes or risk.
After all, this is what PBB stands for, being a risk conservative business, delivering returns in all parts of the cycle. All in all, we expect our real estate finance portfolio to stay above EUR 30 billion. We make good progress, very good progress on our strategic initiatives in a tightly focused manner. We initiated a cost-cutting program, which aims to reduce cost to the 2022 level, with medium-term target, cost income ratio of below 45% by 2026. Against forecasted cost for 2023 or against planned cost levels for 2026, this amounts to an effort of around EUR 40 million, which would bring us then eventually back to the 2022 levels, amounting to EUR 224 million, and a cost income ratio of below 45%. First, the strategic initiatives, as we have already laid it out to you last time.
The progress is on all categories, and I'll walk you through that briefly. I'm talking to page six , is it? Thank you. As mentioned, the real estate finance portfolio has grown strongly to now about EUR 30 billion from EUR 29.3 billion, as of last year, 2022, with improving portfolio margin. Even in times of low new business, we grow our book profitably through margin improvement and careful asset selection and extension management. Furthermore, we increased our retail deposit base to EUR 5.6 billion, which is EUR 1.2 billion up compared to EUR 4.4 billion by the end of last year. Just recently, we entered into a cooperation with Raisin, an operator of WeltSparen Investment platform, and we further broadened our brand and distribution channels, and therefore our deposit franchise value.
We also made further progress with regard to our earnings diversification initiative. The operational setup of our real estate investment management is in progress. The strategy for our first product has been defined. We plan for an equity as well as a debt product. Further details will follow soon, expectedly, at the EXPO REAL in Munich, end of October this year. With our expertise in commercial real estate sector and in close cooperation with our partners, Universal Investment, which is our custodian, and Amundi, which is our sales partner, we are on the way to develop and expand PBB INVEST into a strong investment manager. We still believe that it is exactly the right time to set up a solid and expandable infrastructure without legacies to be ready to start when the market returns.
Overall, the markets have not yet recovered, but we believe that opportunities will arise in the coming months to build up attractive portfolios for institutional investors, both on the debt and the equity side. The next point is Digital Credit Workplace. The credit process has been put to the next level, increasing our process efficiency, and the non-core unit optimization is running. Public Investment Finance and Value Portfolio have been bundled into the new non-core unit. We are thus concentrating on the real estate finance and real estate investment management areas, which are promising for our business model, and we'll continue to invest here, both in terms of personnel, resources and capital. The benefits of merging the parts of the non-core unit can be seen already in Q2.
As the entire public sector portfolio is now in rundown, the previous narrow restrictions on asset sales do not longer apply. This gives us more room in the individual selection of assets that can be sold at a profit. With a stronger reduction on the asset side, the possibilities for bond buybacks expand. In times of rising interest rates, the interest-induced spreads are also increasing and enable buybacks at favorable conditions, as was to be seen. This way, we actively are opening up another possibility for the bank to benefit from the current higher interest rates as an alternative to the loss of floor income, and in addition to the substitution advantages already described through cheaper retail deposits. One of our further key strategic initiatives is the green transformation, where we also make good progress.
First, as you know, we target the green share of our real estate finance portfolio of at least 30% until 2026. The share is now around 20%. 70% of the portfolio are scored and have been vetted. The green share of the scored portfolio is at around 28%. With regard to green consulting, we founded a new entity called Eco ESG GmbH, together with our partner, Groß & Partner, which aims to advise on green transformation projects, and the first joint projects are in preparation, are actually in the pipeline. We want to develop this into an overall managed to green approach, to be leveraged also in other business fields, notably in our real estate investment management. That brings me to another key element of our strategic agenda for 2026, the cost efficiency, and that's on page 7.
When detailing strategic initiatives, we announced that we would also focus more on our cost. Despite general cost discipline, we currently see, and will see in the current year, visibly higher costs from significantly increased regulatory requirements, and first and foremostly, from necessary strategic investments. We have therefore taken extensive measures to significantly reduce our current cost, i.e., in the order of around EUR 40 million. The cost program, as part of our strategic project P2026, aims to bring the cost income ratio back to a level of 45% by 2026, and thus to the, and basically back to the levels which we did show in the year 2022 at an amount of EUR 224 million.
Cost savings would spread into 40% personnel costs and 60% non-personnel, and this corresponds to the cost FTE reduction of approximately 15% for 130 FTEs over the next few years to come. In addition, there are approximately 20 FTEs of Capveriant, which we already communicated to you, which are also being made redundant. Come back to that. Main drivers of personal cost reduction will be increased process efficiency, especially credit, credit workspace, the digital platform for our credit flow, in-depth process reviews, and discontinuation of the public investment funds and Capveriant segments. Of course, we will carry out these reduction measures in a socially responsible manner and take into account company agreement and demographic development structures and natural fluctuations. We have every intention to start with the exercise before the end of this year.
In terms of Capveriant, we have largely completed the measures, as previously announced, by the end of the third quarter, both in terms of personnel as well as in terms of infrastructure. Non-personnel cost reductions will predominantly be driven by reduction of IT, e.g., through insourcing or a new service contract and consultancy costs, as well as specific cost savings over the whole organization as a result of an in-depth cost review. Program costs are already largely covered, either through existing provisions related to Capveriant or the credit workplace, or by cost-neutral measures such as natural fluctuations. Additional costs will be financed by countermeasures and have already been accounted for in our business planning and guidance. With that, let me come to page nine to the operative highlights for the first half 2023.
On the business side, real estate finance new business stays low at EUR 2.5 billion, versus EUR 4.3 billion last year, in reflection of the overall market sentiment and market environment. With some good news in that, the volume shows the increase in dynamic with EUR 1.5 billion in Q2, after EUR 1 billion in Q1. B, the average gross interest margin stays on elevated level of 200 basis points, i.e., 30 basis points up versus last year. C, real estate finance portfolio strongly increased by EUR 900 million to EUR 30.2 billion, with improvement margin on this stock. On the funding side, we made strong progress in further building up our retail deposits in substitution for senior unsecured market funding. Retail deposits are up by 27% year to date, with currently further strong inflow.
Now, if you follow me, please, to page 10. A brief overview on markets, I'm sure there will be further questions coming up later on. Overall, there's, there's not, no secret around it. Commercial real estate transaction volumes did see a further strong decline in Q2, both in Europe and the United States, as you can see from the charts. The determining factors for commercial real estate remain difficult and uncertain. Further increased interest rates with remaining uncertainty on further development, although we assume that there will be some flattish development over the next months to come. Persisting high inflation, in addition, structural trends such as working from home and ESG, which cause further uncertainty and pressure on price.
Property prices remain under pressure, with some differentiating dynamics between prime versus non-prime, core versus non-core, inner city versus peripheral, green versus non-green, and so on. While we expect markets to come to converging views on the relevant pricing components, such as the interest rates, all in all, the prices on real transactions are not to be expected, not expected to bottom out before 2024. Yet, I think, especially in such a situation, PBB business for PBB business model proves its value. PBB is rather positioned on the conservative side, i.e., predominantly prime and core, with conservative risk parameters and focus on strong structures. PBB stock of risk provision provide a solid buffer. Parts of further expected property price movements are already processed and reflected in Stage 1 and 2 model-based provisions.
Finally, with our strategic initiatives, we now lay solid ground for increasing profitability and value creation. Page 11 on the new business and the portfolio view. As already pointed out, expectedly and in a reflection of the market environment, new business volume remained at a rather low level with EUR 2.4 billion, but with an increasing dynamic and with elevated margins from 200 versus 170 before. In this challenging market environment, we remain true to ourselves, staying selective and balancing risk and return rather than going for margin, rather going for margin than for volume or risk. This naturally comes with a higher share of extension, which is around 40%-41% for the first half 2023.
Therefore, as mentioned, we adjust our new business guidance for the full year to between EUR 6.5 billion to EUR 8 billion, with further increasing new business dynamics and new business volumes in the second half of 2023. Despite lower new business volume, we see positive development in the strategic graph portfolio. Volume increased significantly to 30.2, and also the portfolio margin is moving up. Now, please allow me to skip slides 11, slide 11. Keep that for your own reading, that we have been very selective on the United States and UK. New business should not come as a surprise.
On the Nordic side, as you can see, the larger-than-usual share is owed to a fairly large quasi-development structure, which we did finance with a long-term client right in the middle of Stockholm. That's not a strategic shift per se. On page 12. Is it 12? No. On page 13, it is. Real estate finance, new business, and portfolio view. That brings me to the topic of portfolio quality. Given the current market environment, it is not of a surprise that we see some movement in risk parameters. However, all overall, PBB remains well positioned with an average LTV of 51% and average IC of 300%. In that context to that slide, please allow me for clarifying comment.
The LTV clusters show on the chart, which are shown on the chart, are not sliced, i.e., the respective clusters are showing the total loan amount, not only the loan part applying to them. As we, in the recent days and weeks, received several requests on valuations and clarifications on that, some additional explanations might be given at this point. First, it is important to understand that in the context of valuations, PBB focuses on prime properties in core, inner city locations with conservative risk parameters. Property values in this segment are more stable than non-prime, non-core B locations and B properties. Second point, NPIs do not necessarily cause risk provision. PBB follows an approach with rather conservative risk parameters and conservative valuation.
While, for instance, the transaction might be classified as unlikely to pay, overall, actual and most up-to-date valuation may return a collateral value that completely covers the outstanding loan, which we term as an NPL with zero LLP. We continuously and intensively monitor our portfolio. It is not only about regular reviews, but it's a matter of constant monitoring. As per the end of Q2, we have scanned our total portfolio by real estate appraisers, with particular focus on U.S. and office.
Expected valuation adjustments for PBB's portfolio in the second half of 2023 and 2024 are taken into account into our model parameters when we talk about Stage 1 and 2 risk provisioning, that is for the U.S. office portfolio, a further valuation adjustment of around 15%-20%, European office between 5%-10%, and total office portfolio, 8%-12%. Just to be clear on that point, these figures are based on the total portfolio scan and reflect PBB's individual portfolio structure and positioning, i.e., predominantly prime and core. Very, very important to note, they're built on already adjusted valuations from preceding quarters, i.e., on the adjustments which we made already second half last year. Now, on page 14, NPL portfolio.
The NPL portfolio development reflects stressed market environment, and thus, has a dynamic which should not surprise, especially with regard to U.S. business and to the office segment. However, the NPLs which we, which we took on, and that's most important, were coming in at EUR 17 million risk provisioning needs for new NPLs, therefore remain on the module level. Again, there are two more pages on portfolio quality, which is page 15 and 16, which is an update to what we did show to you last time. I would skip that here, but if you have questions, please revert to me thereafter. That brings me to the funding topics on page 17.
Funding activities reflect the optimization of our refinancing and liquidity structure in two directions: A, alignment with lower new business volumes, and B, focus on retail deposits and substitution of senior unsecured capital markets funding. Against this background, we launched a public buyback tender for three senior preferred and 1 Public Sector Pfandbrief in Q2, with a final volume of around EUR 400 million. I'll get back to that point when we come to the P&L section. Furthermore, as of end of Q2, we repaid EUR 1.8 billion on the remaining TLTRO, which leaves us with a remaining volume of EUR 900 million, which is planned to be repaid in 2024. Our liquidity position remains comfortable, with an LCR of 163, and an NSFR of 114.
As you know, PBB manages its liquidity on a six-month basis, on a stressed basis for 6 months, i.e., the liquidity buffer must withstand a six-month stress test, while on a regulatory note, only one-month stress is required. Page 18 on retail deposits. As I mentioned, retail deposits are up by 27% to EUR 5.6. The number of clients increased by 80% since 12/2021, from 41,000 to more than 75,000. We continue to build out our franchise and brand marketing. In this context, we entered into a cooperation with Raisin, the operator of WeltSparen investment platform. 82% of the money of the inflow is term money with average term of 3 years.
Potential unexpected outflows of call money are sufficiently covered by cash and cash equivalents, i.e., there's no liquidity risk from our point of view from any call money which we have on our books. Retail deposits are nearly 100% guaranteed, either by government deposit insurance scheme or by private bank scheme in Germany. Let me go directly to page 20. As usual, the overview on the financials, and as usual, a few comments on selected line items. The first one to mention is the extraordinary strong net income from realizations, which amounted to EUR 42 million in the first half of 2023, which mainly benefits from the sale of financial assets from non-core unit and the liability buybacks.
At this point, the consequences of the strong increase in market interests are also noticeable for us with a time delay and more moderately, where other market participants benefit from rising interest rates from high side deposits. PBB participates by monetizing interest-induced changes in values through asset sales and bond buybacks. Prepayments, which was a source of realization income in earlier times, prepayments stayed low due to the market situation. As usual, bank levy, I mentioned that it's been booked upfront in Q1, will not be a topic for the second half of the year. Now with that, we turn to our net interest income, which is page 22.
As mentioned in several calls before, compared to last year, the NII is being influenced by the fact that there is no further benefit from TLTRO 2, 3, and from floor income as interests have moved up significantly. However, at the same time, the average real estate financing volume has increased strongly from 28% to 29.6 or 6%, at an increased portfolio margin as a reflection of increasingly materializing effects from higher new business margins and retail deposits. On this basis, we expect the positive NII trend to continue and even show an increasing dynamic in the second half of the year, with the NII increasing by approximately 10% in the second half. Now, page 23 on risk provisioning is only up to million against last year, i.e., EUR 21 million.
Net additions in Stage 1 and Stage 2 of EUR 10 million in Q2, mainly reflect increased PDs for individual financings and updated valuation parameters in the light of current market environment, partially compensated by release of management overlay, as anticipated and uncertainty factors materialized in Stage 1 or Stage 2 additions, full stop. The remaining management overlay of EUR 28 million covers assumptions about further deterioration of market values in office markets going forward. Net additions in Stage 3 of EUR -9 million are driven by 2 US office loans, partially compensated by a release from 4 deals, which we put back into the solid part of the business. The stock of risk provisions remains on a stable level, providing a cushion for potential future defaults. You find that on page 24.
You also see that we are fairly stable and flat on the basis points covering the portfolio at 130 basis points and 34 basis points. Now, on cost, which is page 25, 2023 remains a year of investment. Investments in strategic projects continue in line with our strategic agenda. The cost increase, which we see first half of 2023 and which will stretch into 2023 second half as well, are related, first of all, to specific measures to strategic initiatives, i.e., the Digital Credit Workplace, which now sort of comes into full production. Set up, the second one is the set up of real estate investment management, green consulting, and important thing, because directly supporting our business, is the marketing cost for retail deposits, just to name a few illustrative things.
A further driver is the insourcing of functions, i.e., functions which so far have been, and mostly project-driven, been performed by external service providers or consultants, which then can be and shall be covered more efficiently by ourselves. In the first step, this comes with cost, but, going forward, will result in a cost relief. What we do against that, what we do in terms of cost-cutting program, I have just already reflected and presented to you. Now, turning to page, what is it? 26 on PBT. What I've described, re-returns a PBT of EUR 81 million, which underpins our full year guidance of EUR 172 million to EUR 100 million, based on the following expectations for the second half.
As mentioned, the positive NII trend expected, is expected to continue, and I expect it to increase by 10%, benefiting from stable real estate financing for volume or portfolio, and a further increase in portfolio margin. Realization income expected to stay at low levels, so no, no further strong impact from second half of the year. As I said, bank levy has already fully been booked, so that's not a matter for the current quarter or the second half of 2023. The conservative and lasting loss allowances buffer risk provisioning going forward. Now, finally, a word about capital. That's on page 27.
The cost, the CET1 ratio is somewhat down to 16.0 from 16.6 for the second quarter, 2023, based on a slightly increased risk-weighted asset level in reflection of current market environment and somewhat lower capital position due to technical effects and the fact that we paid out a dividend. Now, to summarize my presentation and to put it briefly, we have stormy times, and there's a lot of things to do, but we remain on track as we laid it out to you now various times. We confirm our full year PBT guidance of EUR 170 million to EUR 200 million, which we expect to be supported by further increasing NII dynamic. We expect our portfolio to stay above EUR 30 billion, while we expect the portfolio margin to further increase.
We adjust our new business guidance to EUR 6.5 billion to EUR 8 billion in reflection of challenging market environment. Solid pipeline supports increasing new business dynamics in the second half. Our conservative and lasting loss allows cushioned risk provisioning going forward, and most importantly, we push, push forward our strategic initiatives in a tightly focused manner. As part of this, we have initiated a cost-cutting program with medium-term cost-income ratio target of below 45% by 2026. Thank you for your attention. I'm happy to take your questions now.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question now, please press nine followed by the star key on your telephone keypad only once. If you wish to cancel that question, please press nine followed by the star key a second time. The first question comes from Borja Ramirez. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hello, good morning. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I have two quick questions, please. The first is on the assumptions for real estate prices going forward. If I understood well, as per slide number 13 of your presentation, you expect a decline in the office portfolio values of 8%-12% in the real estate values. I think in the previous call, it was mentioned a higher number than that, but if I understand this correctly. My second question would be on the increase in the non-performing loans in the quarter, mainly in the U.S.
If you could please provide some details, if this is due to the covenant bridge of loan-to-value or is it as subjective, in NPL? Also, how do you see the risk provisioning going forward on this NPL? Thank you.
Okay. Thank you, Mr. Ramirez. Now, on the real estate prices there, that's easy to explain. When we, when we talked about the changes in valuations last time, we were basically reflecting to the view on last year and first quarter. The way you have to read this on page 13 is basically we did account for when, when you look at the way we set up the models and the way we also went through the portfolio, we did account for approximately 10% decrease in valuations for the office portfolio in second half 2022. We add to that, taking the European office portfolio, another 5%-10% for 2023 to come.
That all in all, basically gives, since mid of year, a combined devaluation effect throughout the portfolio, which we also considered into our Stage 1 and 2 models of around, well, depending on which figure you take between 15%-20%. That hould answer your first question. On the NPL. Apologize. On the NPLs, now, we look at the total exposure for the U.S. business of $5.5 billion, of which, presently, nine exposures are in default with the single loan loss provision Stage 3 of $17 million in total. That's, that's where we are. And of the nine defaults which we have, three are with an LLP, six are with zero LLP.
Now, as I described to you, there might be various reasons. There might be shortfalls in cash flow, there might be other sorts of covenant breaches. The majority of cases where we have a default, but no LLP is a case where we have a valuation. Where we have a valuation well in excess of what we need to cover the outstanding loan amount, and therefore, we may see covenant breaches, we may see unlikely to pay situations. The value of collateral is sufficient and ample to cover the loan and the cost of unwinding the engagement, and therefore comes with a zero and sorry, with a zero LLP. I hope that sort of covers your points.
Yes, thank you. One quick follow-up, if I may. Regarding the provisioning calendar or provisioning backstop from the ECB, I would like to ask your views on how with regard to the NPLs with no coverage?
I'm not sure whether I understood the first half of your question.
Sorry. I meant the provisioning calendar for NPLs from the ECB.
The provisioning calendar?
It's also known as the provisioning backstop.
The backstop issue. Okay.
t his is related to the NPLs with no provisioning?
No, NPLs, sorry, the what comes into backstop goes against the capital, not against provisioning, and has always fully been accounted for, as reflected in the capital. We have no outstanding issues there.
Understood. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Johannes Thormann, HSBC. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everybody, Johannes Thormann. Two questions from my side. First off, on your U.S. office NPLs, could you give more details, if what regional exposures is all New York or other locations? Also the one that was removed, what has driven this removal? Were you able to restructure it, and so on? Last but not least, on the U.S. NPLs, as you said, six do not need any provisioning because the collateral is sufficient. Which LTVs do we have to think about to get to such comfortable levels?
The second thing is, I'm struggling a bit with your own philosophy of being risk conservative, but then you contradict yourself basically by doing development loans in Stockholm, which is currently probably, at least in my list, one of the three most problematic markets in Europe. I'm struggling a bit with that philosophy.
Okay. I mean, on the last one, I won't be too specific because, well, we don't, we don't discuss clients on that side. All I can say is one of the best locations you can have in the city, and it is with a partner we know for long, and we do that against an LTV, which is way below 50%. That's, that's a rare opportunity which we see there, and not a, not a reason for being concerned. The first part of your questions on the US office NPL. Across all categories, including and including office, the vast majority of the exposure is on the East Coast.
We have, 75% is being done in New York and Boston, Washington. 12% of the exposure goes to Chicago, and, 12% is on the West Coast. That's-
I understood this, but on the nine NPLs, is it the same or is it, only where is it?
Yes and no. It's basically on all three regional categories. It's the same number of defaulted loans, three in each case. There's a higher degree of being affected by the defaults on the West Coast, obviously, and on Chicago, which hold three defaults each.
Okay, thank you.
The nine d efaults, which I mentioned, you should also take note that three of them already being delisted and put back into queue period, due to agreements with the sponsor, with the investor, partially by equity injections, partially for other reasons, and four of them are put up for sale. W ith an outcome which we can't really foresee, but where we have no LLPs on, as we go forward.
Okay.
Good. Does, does that cover your questions?
Yes. Thank you.
Thank you.
Oh, probably one follow-up on the net income from realizations. We had a whopping amount this quarter, as you said, because you're more able to sell now non-core business or non-core portfolio. Is this an indication for the next quarters, or was this a one-off amount?
Well, it's neither nor. It's not a recurrent item. We can't say that, but it is something which is also not strictly one-off in the usual sense of the word. It is the result of the strategic decision to put the entire public sector on rundown, which, accounting-wise, opens more possibilities to actively manage the asset side. When opportunities arise, we will do that, we will do that, and the same goes for bond buybacks. Again, that's not something which is sort of to be collected every month or every quarter.
If, in the interest rate environment which we have, and the spread environment which we have, where we see opportunities to crystallize the gains, which are driven by higher interest or higher spreads, we will continue to do that. That's partially our way of sort of collecting the advantages of increasing interest on our part, as others do it in different forms and ways.
Okay, thank you.
Pleasure, Thormann.
Next question comes from Tobias Lukesch, Kepler Cheuvreux.
Yes, good morning. A few questions from my side as well, please. Firstly, I would like to touch on this asset devaluation risk that you use for your model. As discussed before, there were actually much higher values you, you issues with Q1 results, 2024 in a base case, 35% in the Network Space. Now, you're saying you have 15-20 in your model. I was just wondering, you know, like, how this feeds through, through the model, what we think of RWAs with that regard, potentially. Maybe also, you know, how you used the management overlay in this regard, as I understand there were some factors you anticipated which for it was used.
Secondly, on the conservativeness of risk provisions, maybe you can highlight a bit again, how you differentiate yourself from some peers. At the end of the day, you are focusing on very low LTVs, usually. In the US now, we have seen a lot of movement, also some provisioning. With the NPL changes, I was wondering how this works, compared to the average street. Lastly, on the costs, maybe you highlighted basically in your presentation that you now target this kind of EUR 40 million, 40% coming from personnel, 60% from non-personnel, 15% FTE reduction. What is new about that?
Maybe you can give a bit more of, of some cost trajectory, how you expect costs to evolve over the next years until 2026. Very lastly, I mean, Capveriant, maybe you can confirm roughly EUR 5 million impact on that EUR 40 million. So how is this waterfall basically working over the next years? Thank you.
Okay, that's a full strength. Thank you, Lukesch. Now, let's start with the sort of conservative risk profile. I want to exemplify that with one example. It makes a difference whether you have, for instance, an A loan or a B loan or a mezzanine structure. We tend to be on the A loan, the senior structure, whereas others occasionally have engaged into higher LTVs, higher up the risk ladder, and therefore, see further, you know, how shall I say? Further impact by risk provisioning these days.
It might be the same property, it might be the same risk class, all that, but it makes a difference whether you cover the first 50% of the property, or whether you sit behind the 50% with 30% to come. That's a consolation which we see not infrequently, especially in cases where we syndicate with some of our partner banks. That is perhaps one reason why you see higher provisioning needs in some cases, as regards to, or as opposed to what we show. Now, on the valuation model, there might be, there might be some sort of misunderstanding.
W e do not decrease the valuation parameters of the valuation model, simply if some of the devaluation which we expect has already taken place last year, we don't need to double up for that amount. You have to see that as a composite figure going through. When we had, for instance, property which was valued at 100, on the 1st of July, 2022, and was devalued by 10%, and there's another 10% coming on top of that, you basically go through to a 20% devaluation by now. That to be seen as in a compounded way.
As your question to the management overlay, I think one of the driving forces towards that, interests were going up, as that's been being reflected in the risk cost, we could remove the management overlay to that extent, i.e., EUR 14 million, which was attributed to that specific factor. As the risk materializes in the model, the reason to provide for management overlay actually becomes obsolete and needs to be removed, therefore it flattens out on that basis. On cost, how do costs evolve? How do we see that coming?
We said we would like to go back to the cost income ratio of less than 45%, and the cost level in absolute terms, which we've seen 2022, which is a EUR 224 million for personal cost and non-personal cost. What we see this year is a fairly significant amount of investments which we take through the P&L straight away, which basically as a forecast figure for the entire year, brings us to an amount of EUR 248 million to EUR 250 million total cost. Coming from strategic investments, coming from the credit workspace, a workplace, which in terms of being, being put together now, is in the full swing of investment.
It is related to marketing expenses, which are needed in order to build out the retail deposit base and so on. That EUR 25 million increase, plus what we expect in terms of further investments and further wage drift up until 2026, which makes up for another EUR 15 million, is the EUR 40 million, which we expect to come down to in 2026, as it, the amount which we need to save in order to go back to the levels which I just have described. In that, there is a cost element to it, which you rightfully quoted on Capveriant, which amounts to not EUR 5 million, that's too much on the high side, is somewhat below that. Ballpark figure is about right.
Does that give you perspective on the cost side?
Maybe it would be really interesting, I mean we have this below EUR 235 million guidance out to 2023. This was, this was not revised, so.
Hey, Lukas, we an't understand you. It's a bad line. Sorry. Hey, Lukas, are you still there?
Hopefully better now. You have this EUR 235 million cost guidance for, below EUR 235 million cost guidance for 2023. I was just wondering, you know, how this evolves 2024, 2025. How much of a cost to achieve you have, you know, when the benefit really comes through? That would be good if you could shed a bit more light, basically, on the path towards that EUR 200 to EUR 24 in 2026.
I'm not quite sure whether I have fully understood what you mean, but the 224 is basically the target, for 2026. Basically, what we say, with the measures, with the investments which we have, with the cost, cost drift which we have, all that, taken into account, we'd like to flatten that out up until 2026, including further investments to come, and including wage drift to come for the next 3 years, to come back to the, to the basis of 224, in 3 years' time, in 2026.
Basically, we d o that in order to enable cost sorry, to enable the investments which we have on our list, and to flatten out the cost increase, which we did see in 2023.
Okay, that means the whole thing is very much back-end loaded.
No, the cost savings need to set in 2024 already.
2023 is the year of investments, and we can't accomplish significant cost cuts on that side for 2023. As a significant part comes from FTE reduction anyway, and we are just in the process of negotiating with the workers' council. And putting that into action as a matter of the third, fourth quarter, you won't see any impact from that side, emerging in 2023. You cannot. It is a matter for 2024, 2025, 2026 to come as we go forward. Also, very clearly, it's not backloaded. We try to accomplish major portion of that already 2024, 2025.
Thank you.
Pleasure.
At the moment, there seem to be no further questions. If you would still like to raise a question at this point, please press nine, followed by the star key once. There's one question coming from Philip Hessler, Pareto Securities. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Philip Hessler from Pareto. I have two quick questions. Firstly, please, on the net income from realizations, in Q2, the EUR 28 million, how much of this came from liability buybacks? Then on your US office portfolio, do I understand your strategy correctly, that 100% of your portfolio is in A locations, or is it too optimistic from my side? Thank you.
Now, on the first one, realization income, that's 100%, EUR 28, no, sorry. The 28 for the second quarter compares against EUR 24 million, which we took out of the liability side. It's about 80%, which comes from that. On the office portfolio, on the A locations, I would say we did a very cautious and very careful selection of business over the last 3, 4 years in the United States. In principle, I would answer with a yes. The problem is that sometimes you discover only 3 or 4 years later that prime location, which you assumed to be a prime location, did not turn out to be a prime location.
That still may happen, but from a today's perspective, I would say, we had very strict and very clear selection parameters, and therefore, we are confident to say, we are invested in prime locations and prime offices.
Okay, thank you. I just wanted to follow up on your answer. You see the risk that, for example, in San Francisco or L.A., that former A locations become B locations, so this risk is clearly existent?
That is probably fair to say, because of the overall political circumstances, which you see prevailing in Los Angeles and San Francisco and partially also in Seattle. The combination of how the inner cities are being populated just now, and the fact that people make excessive use of home office, makes it very difficult to decide what is going to happen to inner cities, especially in these two or three cases. Very clearly, if you would have asked me one or two years ago whether the places where we invested in San Francisco or Los Angeles would be prime, I would say prime, prime. We see slow, but a movement also from the political side to do something about that.
It is very clear also that from a from a from a segmentation point of view, New York is is very clearly very clearly positioned in terms of what is what is A and what is B location, and still will be.
Okay, perfect. Thank you very much.
Hi, Heßler. Vielen Dank!
There's one follow-up question coming from Borja Ramirez. Please go ahead.
Hello. I have a quick follow-up if I may. It, in slide 16, on the office portfolio, if I understood well, it is mentioned that the loan-to-value is expected to increase. So it is currently 53% for the office portfolio. I would like to ask if you could please give some indications on the potential level of loan-to-value that you expect.
Now with the present business outlook, I mean, first of all, I tend to be cautious in making such predictions, where we will land, and usually that's not been part of our guidance, predicting average LTV figures. We have been seen being very consistent and stable on the evolvement of average LTV in the respective asset classes, and to that, I would stick.
Understood. Thank you.
Pleasure.
Okay, thank you very much. As there are no further questions at this point, I'd like to hand back to you, Mr. Arndt, for some closing remarks.
No, I just have to say thank you for dialing in. Thank you for your interest, and, looking very much forward to also meet you in person, at the next opportunity. Have a good day, and thank you for coming in, and, all the best to you. Thank you.