Welcome to the RENK Group AG Q4 2025 pre-close call. Please note that this call will be recorded. During today's call, webcast participants will be in a listen-only mode while we conduct the question-and-answer session. If you wish to ask a question, we ask that you please use the Raise Hand function at the bottom of your Zoom screen, or if you've dialed in, press star nine. Further instructions will follow at the time of the Q&A. I would now like to turn the call over to Christian Weiss, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our pre-close call today. Our CEO, Dr. Alexander Sagel, will guide you through today's call and will be available for questions afterwards. With that, let me hand over to Alexander. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you, Christian. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining today's pre-close call, the first one in 2026. First of all, I hope you all had a great and fantastic start into this new year. Before we go into details, let me summarize the key messages up front. First, RENK has once again proven that we can perform on a true year-end race. Therefore, massive kudos to the entire RENK team for this tremendous effort. Our operational performance and delivery capability, combined with our strong team, were the foundation not only for a very solid final quarter, but ultimately for a very successful full year 2025, where we confirm our 2025 guidance on group level for revenue and adjusted EBIT, and where we are fully in line with current market expectations.
Fair to mention that we deliver this performance despite facing several external headwinds, including exchange rate movements, so a weak U.S. dollar development, tariff effects, a weak industrial market, and, most significantly, the Israeli export embargo, making our 2025 results even more remarkable. From what we can see today, we are on the way to another all-time high regarding order intake for 2025. In fact, over the past year, we secured new contracts close to market expectation, and this despite the fact that some larger international orders shifted from Q4 2025 towards Q1 and first half year 2026. I will come back on this point later during the segment discussion. We are also pleased with the order intakes in the U.S., where RENK America alone recognized record-breaking order intakes in 2025 and crossed the $500 million watermark for the first time.
Truly a great proof point for our strong position in the U.S. market. While Q4 did not include any larger orders exceeding the EUR 100 million level, like, for example, the exceptional strong Q4 of 2024, and was more in line with the previous Q3 2025. We, however, secured a number of important orders across our portfolio, underlining the continued strengths of demand. On the revenue side, full year 2025 showed a slightly better growth rate compared to nine months 2025. Important, all three segments were able to grow in the past year, with VMS once again as the clear growth engine on group level. Notably, in Q4, VMS improved significantly, while M&I and Slide Bearings improved strongly in terms of revenues compared to Q4 2024, just confirming again the successful year-end rally I mentioned before.
Regarding the adjusted EBIT, we can simply recognize that once again, the adjusted EBIT growth in 2025 outpaced the revenue growth, resulting in an improved adjusted EBIT margin on group level, despite low double-digit EBIT headwinds due to the factors mentioned before. This improvement of the adjusted EBIT underscores our clear focus on operational performance and cost discipline. As a result, we see adjusted EBIT very close to current market expectation, both in Q4 but also in full year 2025. Overall, RENK remains fully on track. Our full year 2025 performance has positioned us very well to achieve our targets, deliver on our promises, and simply execute our strategy. Ladies and gentlemen, let me have a quick look on our segments, starting, of course, with the largest one, VMS. The VMS segment continued to be our absolutely strongest growth driver in 2025.
During Q4, order momentum in VMS stayed elevated and comparable to Q3 2025, fueled by ongoing by ongoing demand for our high-performance transmissions for tracked vehicles through the entire year. Just to mention, or better recall, some few key contracts from the last quarter, for example, like the second batch of K2 main battle tank transmission for Poland. You might recall that we booked the first batch already at the end of Q3. From Germany, additional first orders for Pumas, the recovery tank Büffel and the Boxer, and various orders from the THOR III program in U.S. as well, just underlining our leading position in NATO's land defense programs. Furthermore, we saw various international orders for AVDS engine and our drive system as part of retrofit and support programs, complementing our core transmission business.
We also recorded increased orders for the aftermarket business for VTA, for Augsburg throughout the year, especially in Q4. This includes, for the very first time, urgent spare parts and MRO support packages for Ukraine by direct contracts between the Ukrainian MOD and RENK. Comparing Q4 2025 with Q4 2024, it is fair to recall the fact that we had an unexpected high order intake of three large MBT programs just before Christmas, and which were scheduled originally for 2025 order intake, just significantly supporting order intake performance of Q4 2025. On top, the order intake of a larger international MBT program in the lower three-digit million EUR range shifted from Q4 2025 into H 1 2026 due to minor delays in the final contract negotiations.
On the revenue side, VMS just delivered significant growth in 2025, both for Q4 and for the full year. Our production output ramped up strongly in Q4, thanks to the year-end push after a slower third quarter. As you know, we had a planned temporary slowdown in Augsburg during Q3 to implement our new modular production line. By Q4, the new line was simply up and running, and VMS revenues grew significantly year-over-year in the quarter. As a result, we are ending up slightly above current market expectation for Q4 as well as for the full year 2025. In terms of adjusted EBIT, VMS showed another strong performance, which is pretty in line with current market expectation for Q4 and full year 2025 as well. adjusted EBIT increased significantly, both in Q4 and on a full year basis.
As a result, VMS once again remained the largest driver of the adjusted EBIT for the entire group in full year 2025. However, while we were able to partially offset the revenue losses of the Israel business with other business in Q4, the margin quality of the latter was different. Ladies and gentlemen, our Marine and Industry segment, or in short, M&I, also delivered a very solid performance in 2025, primarily driven by the naval side of the business. The global naval market remained robust and RENK benefited from rising defense budgets and a steady flow of modernization and new build naval programs in Europe, in the U.S., and Asia.
However, contracts from three international customers with a total order intake range approximately in the mid-double-digit million EUR value and expected for Q4 2025, shifted into H1 2026, resulting in Q4 order intake levels compared to Q3 2025. Looking now on the revenue side, our naval business achieved a new all-time high for full year 2025, which is the result of our strong execution on ongoing projects and the successful integration of our new U.S. operations, RENK America Marine and Industry, RAMI, and our strategic positioning in the largest navy market of the world, the U.S. market. However, the industrial part of M&I continued to face a more challenging environment. Broader industrial markets remained weak in 2025, with soft demand in sectors like energy, steel, and general industry, which impacted our industrial transmission business.
Overall, M&I's revenues for Q4 and full year 2025 were well above last year's level and slightly above current market expectations. Turning to adjusted EBIT, Marine and Industry saw adjusted EBIT growing faster than revenues in Q4, reflecting solid execution and a strong contribution from the naval business. This also holds true for the full year 2025, with adjusted EBIT growth outpacing revenue growth and reaching an adjusted EBIT level well above current market expectation, underlying our ongoing focus again on performance and disciplined project execution. Please keep in mind that the full year adjusted EBIT level is also impacted by positive one-time effects, like, for example, insurance payments received in Q3 and released provisions for warranty claims in Q4. Taking these one-time effects into account, underlying 2025 profitability would have been slightly above last year's levels. Finally, a few words on our Slide Bearings segment.
Despite a challenging industrial environment throughout 2025, the business realized slight revenue growth close to current market expectation and delivered a very solid performance regarding adjusted EBIT, well above current market expectations. The execution of operation measures and the recruitment initiative are starting to show first tangible results with improving throughput and utilization. The order intake for 2025 is, however, slightly below the 2024 level. Looking on Q4, finally, Q4 2025, we can see that December was the strongest month in the segment's history in terms of revenues, which supported a very solid Q4 regarding revenues and adjusted EBIT, which were, together with the order intake, well above Q4 2024. Ladies and gentlemen, to sum it up, RENK has delivered a successful 2025, and RENK has delivered what we promised.
Execution is clearly key, and we are most, almost brutally focused in driving the needed future capacity uplift and preparing ourselves operationally for the coming years by simply executing our strategy, or in a more simplistic view, maybe, just doing our homework. As a final remark, we will disclose our full year 2026 guidance on March 5th, 2026, as part of the publication of our 2025 annual results. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attention, and I'm now looking forward to your questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin our question-and-answer session. If you have a question, we ask that you please use the Raise Hand function at the bottom of your Zoom screen. If you've dialed in by phone, please select star nine on your keypad to raise your hand and star six to unmute. Once your name has been announced, please unmute and ask your question. If you want to withdraw your question, please lower your hand using the Raise Hand function. Thank you, and a moment for the first question, please. We'll take our first question with Sam Burgess with Goldman Sachs. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Thanks very much for taking the question, and good morning, Alex. If I've heard you properly, VMS revenue is likely to come in ahead of market expectations, but adjusted EBIT in line. Was that, did you say, due to the exclusion of the Israel business, which I presume is coming in at relatively high margin? I think you said previously, you're expecting to receive permission for that in the first quarter of 2026, so we should expect that to come through, you know, at high margin in the first part of the year, would be my first question.
And then the second is just whether anything has changed in terms of what you're seeing, particularly in Germany, on capacity ramp from some of your customers, or whether everything is in line with your initial guidance that you provided at the CMD for a more kinda back-end loaded 2028 sales growth. Thank you.
Yeah, Sam, good morning. It's a pleasure talking to you. I mean, starting with the first questions about the fourth quarter and the impact of the Israel business. I mean, you are perfectly right. We are regarding on the revenue side well above or over the market expectations. And on the EBIT side, I think we are pretty good on the market expectation. So this is a result, because, as you correctly said, during Q4, we could not deliver the quantities from Israel because we had this export embargo. And we could compensate partially with different business, but you also mentioned it, that the margin quality was different, lower, compared to what we had originally considered for our Israeli business. So this is one and first answer on this point.
The second answer on the same topic is that, indeed, we are in very close discussions with the German government. We are in very close discussions with the Israeli government, in regards to understanding the delivery and the shipment timeline, which will be linked on the export approval timeline of Israel. We do expect to have, in the next 4-5 weeks, a more clearer visibility, because it is also needed for our guidance on March 5th, of course. Or what I mean, or what I can say in regards to Israel is that, we have considered for 2026, round about EUR 80 million of revenues from Germany. And, according to the delivery schedule, what we have currently and where we are working on and preparing our production and our production scheduling, this will start during the second quarter.
During the first quarter, we do not have Israeli volumes to be produced because this was not possible. But we will have a stronger back-end loading of the Israeli volumes. But so far, I'm optimistic. We will need to see how the German government finally will proceed on this export approval. But if you take the overall political sentiment between Germany and Israel, I think it has improved during the last couple of months. So let's wait and see. Your second question is a tricky question, to be honest, because I'm not doing the capacity planning, of course, from our customers.
But what I can say is, according to the delivery schedules for 2026 with our key customers in Germany, in Europe, I do not expect any significant deviations from the understanding what we have going into our plants. I mean, into the plants of our customer. We do see, I mean, many, many of activities, and, and this I think is broadly through Europe. So it's our two German customers. Yeah, we have international customers, like, in Europe, but, I have no reason to assume that we cannot fulfill our contracted delivery volumes for 2026.
That's really helpful. Thank you very much.
You 're welcome, Sam.
Our next question comes from Sebastian Growe with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead and ask your question.
I hope you can hear me. Hi, Dr. Sagel.
Absolutely, Sebastian. Good morning.
That's great. Good morning. So, I have three. The first one is more clarification. So from what I heard, you said, I think the VMS would be in line with market expectations, M&I, and slide bearings both above market expectations when it comes to EBIT. However, I think in the sort of group commentary you gave, you said that you would be close to current market expectations. So to me, that sounded a bit like you are rather coming from the lower side, if I may put it this way. But the segment-related commentary would rather suggest you are kind of exceeding market expectations. So if you could just clarify that, and maybe we take the questions one by one, if you don't mind.
Yeah, okay. Yeah, I mean, I think your understanding about my comments on the full year performance in regards to adjusted EBIT for the three segments, VMS, M&I, and slide bearings, is perfectly on the point. Maybe I should be more precise. If I look on 2025 adjusted EBIT performance, I would say it's very, very close to market expectations. I don't know if this answer helps you more, but this is all what I can say right now.
Okay. No, that's helpful indeed, and I think we shouldn't go any further. Then the next one is around free cash flow, to the extent possible that you can talk about that. So, I think we heard you saying that the order intake should rather be at the Q 3 level. At the same time, however, it seems that for some market participants, there has been indeed a very, very substantial tailwind from then also prepayments received. So if you can just elaborate on what we should maybe see then from indeed the prepayment working capital tailwinds for Q4?
Yeah, sure. I mean, as I just tried to allude during my little speech, we have two main factors who also have an impact on our free cash flow generation, 2025. As you know, our target is always, and we discussed it, to be above the 80% in an average over two or three years. We do not-- we are not completely through with our free cash flow figures, but all what I can say is, we are on a good way. We are currently somewhere on the 50% level, and this is what I can see from today's point of view, and this is, I mean, 50% in regards to cash conversion rate. And this is simply driven by two facts. First, we had order intake shifts.
We had larger programs, from the Navy side and one large program from the MBT side. They just shifted from the year-end towards the beginning of 2026, so we do expect them in Q1 and in half year one. This has, of course, a free cash flow or advanced payments who did not materialize as expected before Christmas, but they are coming now during Q1 and during the first half year, from this point of view. And we also had a payment, a customer payment, which was due before December, which did not materialize, but it will materialize right now in February. So there should be a positive cash flow impact on Q1. Overall, currently, what we see is somewhere in the range of a 50% cash conversion rate.
But if we would consider the impacts of these two factors, shifting of programs and this not received payment, we would be, if we would adjust this, but don't take it, I mean, as a normal adjustment, in regards to our free cash flow, well above current market expectations.
Okay, that's helpful. And because you just made the point around the customer payment, we know that one customer of yours is apparently quite vocal about up to 30% prepayments from the German customer in particular. Can you just walk us through to what extent you might benefit also from this generous way the German customer treats their suppliers?
We are contracted by the primes. Yeah, and of course, if the German customer is so generous and, and giving 30% advanced payment for certain programs, we also do hope, of course, when we are in contract negotiations, to participate from this increased advanced payment method. And we will see, to be honest, if we are successful, because we are starting now, as you can imagine, with, for example, the 200 Pumas, which were approved by the German parliament just before Christmas. We are starting now to enter and, and to go into contract negotiations. And of course, we will try all what we can do, and I think in the past, we were not really unsuccessful to make our share and to participate on these advanced payments.
Okay, makes sense. And the very last one, maybe it's a follow-on to what Sam asked before, but I think you have been helpful in qualifying then the expectations around 2025 and how things might then simply shape up in comparison with the consensus. Would it be as helpful then also for 2026 to at least give a certain hint as how to think about the consensus? Because I think as you will and can tell by the market reaction for one of your customers today. The deviation from the expectation has been quite severe in their case, and yeah, I just wanted to sort of check in if and when you could disclose anything around how to think about 2026.
Yeah, Sebastian, I mean, if we're looking, I mean, looking on the stock market this morning, I can understand this question, to be honest. Of course, as you know, and I think you would not have expected a different answer, we will have on our full year call in 2025 a much more detailed discussion on this point, including our guidance for 2026. But really, if I run through from my Alexander Sagel point of view, through the main topics and main triggers for 2026, I think I can provide this, and I should do it, of course. Starting with the market view, which from our I mean, our perception is very, very positive for 2026. We have a strong order book.
As you know, according to the nine-month results, it was in the range of EUR 6.4 billion. To be honest, I would be surprised if in four weeks, the EUR 6.4 billion would be at the same level. I mean this in a positive way. We have overall, we have very positive market conditions. I mean, if you, if you watch the last four weeks on the geopolitics, independently, if you talk about China, Indo-Pacific, if you talk about European Union and and Russia, and even if there's a peace agreement or if there's no peace agreement, for us, it doesn't matter, to be honest. We see it even more positive if there's a final peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine for our overall business and development. But overall, the geopolitics will not change.
On the opposite, we do expect, as you know, a major order intakes through the entire year, starting with the German programs, where we see a pipeline, what we can see today in the range between EUR 500 million-600 million order intakes. This includes Puma, the second batch. It includes Boxer Omnibus program, the Leopard main battle tank and family vehicles, etc, etc. F127, maybe even the MEKO A-200. Let's see, on the Italian programs, on the South Korea frame contract U.S., the Romanian and maybe even Austrian IFV programs. So we do expect good order intake, so positive. So overall, from my point of view, if I talk about the market view, it's fair to say it's an absolute positive perspective.
Just to give you another indication, we have for our largest segment, VMS, already today, 90% of our orders fixed in our books. So I think this is a really record level, at least for RENK. So overall, from the market side, from the business side, positive. From the operation side, if you talk about execution on the revenues, I mean, all what I can say is the operations are simply running. The modular production line is on speed, yeah, and performing exceptionally well. And we are just executing our capacity expansion, you know, investing, investing, and converting plans. But it's also clear, and we just touched the point about Israel. I mean, we need to get the export approvals. We are ready and set to deliver according to the agreed delivery schedule with the customer.
We are working very hard and very open in good discussions with the German customer, of course, but this will be a trigger through the entire year, to be fair. And of course, we had in 2025, we had some impact from the geopolitics, if you talk about tariffs, for example. And I think in the beginning, during Q1 2025, we indicated a potential tariffs impact for 2025 in the higher single-digit EUR range. By the way, this did materialize, and we compensated this in our 2025 figures. But you do not know, at least I or we do not know, how the U.S. foreign politics and maybe even Mr. Trump will impact the tariffs and exchange rate. I mean, I cannot tell you this. Maybe you know it.
So overall, looking on 2026, it's, I think, very fair to say we know what to do. The market is strong. We will see, of course, by nature, new all-time highs in our—in all of our relevant key financial figures. And of course, we know what the market, so the consensus, is expecting from us, and we are confident, and I do not feel massively concerned about the current market expectations. That's all what I can answer you right now. I hope it's okay.
Absolutely, it is. Thank you very much for that, but also for the color around it. I like the end on Mr. Trump's mind. But yeah, just one thing for then the one customer. I think it was a pretty harsh shortfall, simply speaking, when they are getting to around EUR 6 billion for vehicle systems and the market is at EUR 6.5 billion. That's apparently not helpful, and then I think it is a logical conclusion that one asks then also key suppliers to what extent they see eventually, I don't know, softer volume outlook in the short term because of whatever delays might happen, etc, and that was simply the backdrop of the question. But I guess it's more than enough that we have covered then. Thank you.
Yeah, Sebastian, just to answer your last comment, I think it's important to mention that, and you know this, we are not depending on one single customer. I think the benefit for RENK is we have a very wide, diversified customer base, and there is no single customer who has more than 10%. I think this is really the strength of RENK. We are focused in our products. We have a strong aftermarket, a strong downstream business. I think this is also unique. We have from the regional and from the geographics, but also from the customer portfolio, we are not depending on one market, and we are not depending on one customer.
No, that's very relevant. Thank you.
As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please use the Raise Hand feature or press star nine on your telephone. When your name is announced, please unmute and ask your question. We will take our next question from George McWhirter with Berenberg. Please unmute your line by pressing star six and ask your question. George?
Hi, morning. On the contract that you signed with Ukraine MoD for spare parts and MRO, can you just comment on what this contract covered and what you expect potentially for further contracts with Ukraine in the coming quarters and years?
George, good morning. I can hear you loud and clear, and I fully understood your question, and I'm happy to answer. Really, indeed, these were the first two contracts we signed in Q4. This was one contract signed between the Ukrainian MoD and our company, RENK America, and it's about servicing overhauls of engines and transmissions from platforms which are currently operating in Ukraine. And the second one is, I mean, it's a very attractive package of spare parts for several platforms, and these platforms include German platforms, it includes French platforms, and it does also include American, U.S.-based platforms, and it's in the higher double-digit EUR level. It's a kind of frame contract, and really, this is the first business, direct business RENK did since the last four years with direct Ukrainian MoD.
That's really helpful. Thank you. The other question I had was on the M&I business. I was just trying to work out exactly, the Q4. I think I might have struggled to understand exactly what, the message was. Maybe if you could just repeat it, if possible, just the Q4 EBIT, in terms of mentioning some of the one-offs, that'd be great. Thank you.
Yeah, well, what I can tell you is, I mean, if you take the Q4 and what I mentioned, the one-offs, I mean, the total magnitude of this one-offs from the M&I is maybe in the lower- to mid-single-digit EUR value. So it's relevant, but it's not really overwhelming. And honestly, we had no other choice because we solved the dispute with the customers we had on the quality side, so we had no other choice than really to release it. But overall, if you look on the Q4, and of course, if you look on the full year, including these range of one-time effects, we are very pleased, to be honest. We are well above last year's levels, I mean, for both.
If we compare this to the market expectation, we are slightly for Q4 and the full year 2025, slightly above on the current market expectations. So if you take this as a kind of horizon to make your assessment, and then you deduct the indication, what I just said about the one-time impact or one-time effects, I think you should come in, in the right point. Overall, and I said it, we are very happy with the development of the M&I segment. I think it's fair to say that, thanks to the good order intake situation from the naval side, good revenue conversion, thanks to a very focused and disciplined project management and also operations, I think the naval business could very well compensate the revenues which we did not generate by the industry business.
Industry business, and you know this, George, in 2025, was under a lot of pressure. We will see how this will develop in 2026, and our estimate is currently it's flat. However, it will also depend if there will be more turbulences on global business, you know, by exchange rates, you know, and impacting certain industries, industrial areas like steel or like oil and gas, whatever. But overall, we are very pleased about the performance of our M&I business.
Thank you very much.
You're welcome, George.
Our next question comes from Sven Sauer with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please unmute your line by pressing star six and ask your question. Sven, please unmute your line by pressing star six and ask your question.
Hello, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Just two follow-up ones. Can you quantify the full year adjustments that you were mentioning about a warranty claim, release of provision of a warranty claim in Q4, and the insurance payment in Q3? Just combined on a full year basis, what that would be. And the second question would be: can we expect some news in 2026 on the M1E3 suspension package?
So good morning. I start with the last question, because this is a very important question, but not the only important question. I mean, if you talk about M1E3 suspension package, I think it's fair to say that there is no official publication from the customer side. Because also our customer, in this case, GD, has some lessons learned from the latest publications, which were not really helping and supporting our customer in running and going in the EMD phase. But what I can indicate you is that RENK is set for the suspensions of the M1E3 EMD phase. Yeah. It's the same like SAPA—like SAPA is nominated for the transmission. Both SAPA for the transmissions and RENK for the suspensions need to be qualified now.
During the next three years, there will be, like, a couple of platforms build up, I think 15, 16, and every one of us needs to run through this qualification and to perform. Yeah. If we perform and if there's still money left, yeah, for the army budget, the potential partners and suppliers for transmission and for the drive system will go into the serial production. I think just a little comment aside this, it's not only the M1E3 who is attractive. I think it's also attractive to see if there could be a kind of repowering program of the existing Abrams fleet, M1A2, which is especially could be relevant for Abrams fleets in sandy countries.
Like if you take Egypt, if you take Saudi, where there are huge fleets of M1A2s, but maybe even repowering could be attractive for the existing U.S. fleet of the M1A2. When we talk about repowering, or in Germany, the retrofit, it means to get rid of the, gas turbine, to have a diesel engine, and to have a new transmission. So, and here, most likely, there could be, from the customer side and from the end user side, a decision towards the middle of the year. And I would see that RENK is in a good position because the current, Abrams M1A2 is quite heavy, much more tons compared to the target weight of the M1E3 next generation.
So there are not so many transmission suppliers who have a transmission off the shelf just to make a TOT, transfer of technology, and to, yeah, simply start delivering on the short notice. About the adjustments, to be really open, Sven, I don't have the overview. I can tell you what I just told to, to the other gentleman, that if you talk specifically about the M&I, we had this low to mid single digit EBIT impact on the adjustments. Positive, in this case, positive, because it's important if you will see our full disclosed numbers in four weeks from now.
So we had this positive impact, but again, if you would take out this positive impact, our resulting performance, if you look on the M&I margin, would be still above last year performance. And you might recall, we always said that 2025 and 2026 is a year or are the years of stabilization on the 11% value, on 10.5%-11% value, and I think this is exactly where we are running, despite the fact that we had, as I said before, a lot of headwind from the industrials. Yeah. But M&I showed a good performance. And by the way, also our aftermarket in the M&I segment, which is also 50/50 roundabout, from defense and by industry, also showed a good performance.
That was very helpful. Thank you very much.
Our next question comes from Chloé Lemarié with Jefferies. Please go ahead and ask your question.
Thank you very much. Good morning, Alexander. I have a follow-on on VMS. So I understand that in Q4, you had some margin headwinds versus market expectation, but just wanted to check if you started to see some effects from the new organization at Augsburg, or should we expect that to take a bit more time to flow through in 2026? And also on the kind of delay to the Israeli sales in Q4, should we add that to the total that you were initially planning in 2026? Or should we kind of stick to the roughly EUR 70 million that you were expecting initially? Thank you.
Well, bonjour. Always a pleasure, and good questions. Starting with Israel, my recommendation would be to stay on this EUR 18 million range, because we need to get approvals. We need to understand, and this is what we are doing currently. I'm very frequent, as you can imagine, in Berlin, and I was before Christmas in Tel Aviv. And of course, if there's any opportunity to add this, what we could not deliver in 2026, in 2025, on 2026, we are ready to do, but it depends on the timing and on the frequency. Not, I mean, for the new contracts coming in, yeah? So, I'm always a little bit conservative. I see it in the EUR 80 million range.
If we can manage this from the sequence of getting approvals versus delivery schedules to the Israeli customer, if there's any chance to put this on top, we will of course do it. But for this, we need to have more clarity on the overall process now of approvals, and we have a clear delivery schedule from the customer, of course. So now we need to see this and to fit it. Your first question, Gloria, I think was related to the impact of the modular production line. Is that correct?
Absolutely, yeah.
Yeah. I mean, we had a busy Q3. I think you all have seen this. Thank you again very much for participating on our Capital Markets Day. During Q4, this line was just up and running. Yeah, and most likely you could not see the full year impact in one quarter, but what you will see, of course, during 2026, you will see that we have generating or that we will generate more efficiency because the line is running just smoothly. You know, it's – we could theoretically produce much more, but we have our contracts, you know, and the contracts we need to fulfill. But the line is beautiful. It's very efficient. It supports our entire procurement planning. For this reason, yes, we do expect to see further efficiency gains also during 2026.
Very clear. Thank you.
You're welcome.
Our next question comes from Christophe Menard, from Deutsche Bank. Please unmute your line by pressing star six and ask your question.
Yes, sir. Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I had two. The first one is on the-- You mentioned, Alexander, on M&I, mid double digit order that were expected in Q4 shifted to H1 2026. Can you give a little bit more details on this? And the second question, you were talking about the expectation of order intake from Germany in 2026. At the CMD, you mentioned something like a range of EUR 1.4 billion-EUR 2.2 billion in terms of total order intake you were expecting from Germany at given point in time. Do you have any update on this? I mean, I think you said that the CMD dependent on the quantities, and it was not set yet. So any update would be interesting. Thank you.
Yeah, Christophe, bonjour, also here. Yes, of course. I mean, I would propose I start with the first point about the M&I shifts. We had actually three programs, which originally were scheduled, and I think on the Q9, we even talked about this, about various frigate programs of international customers. And in fact, there are two programs. One is for a European nation, and the second one is an international customer. It's not because the customer has problems of funding. The funding is safe, and the budget is there, and there's a clear commitment. It's more about the internal process. It's about the timing on the customer side. So for this reason, these programs, they will come simply.
And there was a third program, and this was a R&D project with a German customer, and simply here, final technical specifications or requirements on this R&D program, which is for a German R&D program, at least for RENK, quite substantial. It's in the lower double-digit EUR million range. We do expect. We simply—I mean, we were ready, but the customer still needs to do some final adjustments on technical requirements and whatever. So also here, just to make it clear, these programs are not lost. They are shifted into next year. So I hope this was an appropriate answer on the first—on your first question, Christophe. The second one, well-
Absolutely, yeah.
Well, on the second one, and here I'm very transparent, I think what we see currently for the next three years as order intake, and these order intakes we are or we see are according to our understanding and logic of the first phase of the German procurement program. So we're talking about 2025 up to 2029 and 2030. What we see here, if we, I just have it in front of me. If I'm just adding up all the order intakes we see in 2026, in 2027, and in 2028, we are well above the EUR 1.3 billion-EUR 1.4 billion order intake, which does not include, for the time being, the upcoming additional incremental. I always say it, Omnibus phase two Boxer.
We have in this number currently around 1,800 of the Omnibus Boxer included. So from my point of view, we are fully, fully in line what we have communicated on the Capital Markets Day in regards to the revenue expectation. If you take during the next three years, 2026, 2027, and 2028, the total order intake potential above EUR 1.3 billion-EUR 1.4 billion, I think we are in a very good shape. And if you talk about the second phase of procurement, so starting 2029, 2030, and looking towards 2035, I mean, what is currently absolutely missing are the entire perspective on the upcoming main battle tanks, the so-called bridge solution.
In Germany, it's a Brückenlösung, and all the family vehicles, for example, which from our estimate are pretty confirming what we indicated from the volume side on our Capital Markets Day. So we see for the second phase of the procurement cycle, that if you talk about the Leopard family, which includes main battle tanks, but also recovery vehicles, engineering tanks, whatever, I think the incremental of what we communicated between 900-1,100 is still what we clearly see. So it fits. From the Boxer side, I just confirmed again, we always talked about what we see until 2035 is somewhere in the range between 4,000-5,000. I think this is pretty much what we see now during the Omnibus.
The first phase of Omnibus in the range of EUR 1,700-EUR 1,800, then additional EUR 3,000, our estimate, for the Omnibus phase two, I call it phase two. And also when we talk about the Puma, for example, you might recall on the Capital Markets Day, we had a higher range, sorry, for round about EUR 700-EUR 750. I think this is pretty much in line what we expect coming to RENK as orders for 2026, but also 2027. We talk about Puma phase two, approved from the German Parliament just before Christmas, as you know, and we do expect the phase three coming in in 2027.
In a nutshell, we see we are fully on track to what we have communicated and what we are following since a couple of months.
Thank you very much. Very comprehensive answer. Thank you.
Our last question comes from David Perry with JP Morgan. Please unmute your line by pressing star six and ask your question.
Hi, Alexander. Can you hear me?
Yes, David. Hi, good morning.
Hi. Yeah, I hope you're well. Thanks for squeezing me in. It's been a long call. I've got one high-level question and then one very detailed question. So the high-level one is this: Your shares were a lot weaker than other stocks in the sector in the last few weeks, and I was talking to some investors trying to figure out what was going on. And the feedback I got was that at various conferences you've been at, you talked you were trying to sort of give the message that 2026 was a transition year. But this call to me has sounded a lot more positive, and I think you said that you were comfortable with the current market expectations. So can I just pin you down a little bit, if you don't mind?
When you say current market expectations, I assume you mean the, I think it's Vuma or Vara, whichever company you use. There, there is a consensus for EUR 277 million of EBIT in 2026, and I think investors that met you in January were a bit worried about that, but are you today just reiterating that? Sorry to put you on the spot, but given Rheinmetall and everything, I think it's good to be clear about these things this morning.
Y eah, absolutely, David, and maybe I'd just jump in. I mean, if you call it bridge year or not, I think it's a bridge year from an operational perspective, especially because as we just discussed with Chloe, the modular production line is ramped up, is running perfectly, and it's a bridging year, especially when we look on our capacity uplift. We are doing massive investments, and as I just said before, we are almost brutally focused on operational execution and meeting requirements in order to be prepared for a different growth rate on the gears side, on the revenue 2028 and beyond. So if I look on 2026, and we always communicated this from the market perspective, from the market conditions, I think everything is clearly fully green.
We have a full order book, as I just said before, we have a very attractive hunting list, how I always describe it, in regards to the main programs. So I think from the top line, from how the market is currently, what I see on February 2026 for the full year, I have no reason to be pessimistic. Here, I'm really bullish. We need to perform, and of course, at the very end, it also depends. See, if you take the shifts of some programs we scheduled for Q4, it depends on the timing of the customer. If you take, for example, when do we get the order intake of the Puma? Puma was approved to our customers before Christmas. We do expect to get the order intakes.
4 or 5 a month somewhere during, in the, Q2 somewhere, or in the end of half year one. It always takes time, so there's always a kind of time factor, which unfortunately, we cannot really influence. But overall, on the market side, it's positive. On the operations, tick in the box, as I just said before. On the challenges, yes, of course, we have the Israel embargo on, not the embargo, but we need to figure out, and David, you know this, it's, it's a tricky way, it's a tricky thing, how during the next 11 months, the export approval process will take place. We are always shooting and preparing ourselves to get the max out.
So in our entire planning, we are planning for the EUR 80 million, roundabout EUR 80 million, and of course, we are planning, if the export approvals and the customer expectations are meeting each other, to, as asked by Chloe, to ship even more in order to compensate what we missed during the last quarter of 2024. But this needs to be managed, and we cannot, at the very end, whatever we do and how good we are in discussions and very transparent and open discussions with our government, from both sides, by the way, we can only marginally control this. And of course, we had, in 2025, we had tariffs, we had exchange rate, and we had on top, the industrial part. Tariffs and exchange rate, unfortunately, also this I cannot predict. I cannot, yeah, I cannot influence this.
This is triggered by people who have a higher ranking than I do, and they are usually presidents or whatever. And if they are coming, of course, we need to fight against this, yeah? And as I just said before, also in 2025, we had this impact, but we compensated it in a way that on a group level, we are very, very, very, very close on the EBIT side to market expectation. This gives an idea, by the way, this gives an idea, by the way, if we would not have this exchange rate and the, and the tariffs impact, and if we could have delivered Israel, what is in the real business value already today in regards to EBIT and margin. But this needs to be managed, and for this reason, do I have sleepless nights? Because I'm...
To be honest, I wake up and I have sweat everywhere because I know the market expectation, like EUR 277. No, I do not have. And I think if you, and you know this, and I think, I hope you all know this, and I think if you look on our Q4 performance, year-end race, RENK can do this, yeah? And i t will be a challenge, but it's a challenge we clearly take, and for this reason, I have good nights because we are performing. I hope this gives you an answer, David.
Yeah. Well, you, you probably shared more info than your wife wanted to share, but,
Yeah!
That's a very reassuring answer.
Better not tell her.
Thank you. I won't tell her. Thanks a lot. Appreciate it.
Thanks, David.
This concludes the question-and-answer session. I will now hand back to Dr. Alexander Sagel for closing remarks.
Yeah, ladies and gentlemen, I think it was, like always, a very good and open discussion. Of course, we cannot share everything, otherwise, our call on March 5th would be useless, and we are still in some numbers. I mean, we are very early in our year-end closing, but I hope it gave you a good indication about what we achieved as RENK, all the 4,200 RENKies in 2025. I hope also in discussion, the first few gut feeling on 2026, we have no reason to be negative, but it's also clear we have no reason to be lazy and sit in the chair. I mean, to run and to focus on operations, on operation excellence, on costs, requires full attention. RENK is dedicated for this, and yeah, we are really looking forward for good discussions. Thank you very much.
This concludes today's call. Thank you everyone for joining. You may now disconnect.