I thank you for participating in this RATIONAL talk today, and a very warm welcome to everybody. First of all, some housekeeping rules again. I will start with a quick summary of last week's results again, and then we can go over to the Q&A session. Please raise your hands then to ask your questions, and I will let you ask the question, and please then switch your camera on. One hint: this call will not be recorded by us. First of all, let me summarize the most important points of 9M 2025 given last week in the earnings call. With sales revenues in the nine-month period of around EUR 980 million, we grew by 5%, and in Q3 alone, we grew even by 6% to EUR 312 million.
FX turned negative for us since approximately Q3, and adjusted for these effects, growth rates would even be at around 6%-7% for the nine-month period, and for Q2 and Q3, between 8%-9%, respectively. This is something I want to highlight. It was the second consecutive quarter now again with organic growth rates within our long-term CAGR ranges of 8%-9%. This means the general business situation is looking very good. Just FX is hindering us from growing sales revenues even at a higher rate. Also, the order situation is looking promising, so that we are confident to reach our sales guidance for fiscal year 2025 at a growth rate in the mid-single-digit range, so at around 5%.
Margin-wise, we need to mention the two biggest impacts, of course, and that is the U.S. tariffs and strong euro, or the other way around, the weakness of our most relevant currencies, as already commented on the sales development earlier. As we already saw it in Q2, there was again a significant margin impact at around 120 basis points on the EBIT margin just for Q3. This was again the same magnitude that we saw in Q2. For the nine-month period, for the nine-month EBIT, this means a negative impact of around 80 basis points on the EBIT margin. Status now, we expect that the impact will continue in Q4, putting some headwinds for us on the margin guidance.
On the other hand, of course, in the top line, we will be able to compensate with good business development, but on the bottom line, there will still stay some negative margin impact coming out of this topic. On the tariff situation, we are facing additional costs, as already said, for the import tariffs to the U.S., that we estimate now at around EUR 11 million for fiscal year 2025. EUR 6 million of that already were in the nine-month period, and the remainder, so approximately EUR 5 million, will be in Q4. The combination of all these facts led us to make the guidance more concrete in August this year for a guidance, margin guidance in the magnitude of 25%-26%. Looking at the business development so far and the expected developments we have now after the nine-month period, we can confirm this guidance.
This means total guidance would be then we grow in the mid-single-digit area, and we realize a margin of 25%-26%. Of course, we cannot give you guidance for next year, but one thing that we already mentioned last week in the earnings call is the expected extra costs for U.S. tariffs, and I can repeat that here. This is around EUR 25 million, so total costs for 2026, or EUR 30 million more than in 2025, resulting in a margin drag of around one percentage point for 2026 compared to 2025. Of course, I know that you would be now keen on hearing more about our reactions on these additional costs, but as already said last week in the call, and there is no change until now, there is no decision yet on pricing that we can communicate now.
First of all now, those who know us, who follow us for a longer period of time, know it in the context of our budgeting where we are in now, that the first step would be to evaluate saving measures in order to counteract higher costs, and then afterwards derive maybe a potential pricing action. That is all that we can say now about that topic. Yes, it was very short. I think there is not a lot more to say from my side now, and with that, I open or I am open for questions. Let me just wait one thing. We have some problems with getting the people on the call, why ever. Lars, did it now work? We just did a short reminder for last week, and now we are at the point where we start in the Q&A.
I think you are right in time.
Okay, perfect. Yeah, I struggled to get on the call indeed.
We have some problems. There's another guy who is still, it's running, but I don't know why it does not work. Let's see. Now I think it's on. I think, Nikolas, I think you're on. It worked now. Okay, guys, also for Nikolas, we did just a short update on last week. There was nothing new, and now we can go over to Q&A. I just, in the, yeah, I think maybe you might answer, ask the one or the other question maybe we already had, but that's okay.
Perfect. Thank you very much.
Who wants to start? No, I see you want to start. Good.
Let's get the party started. Any update on US pricing? Have you taken a decision in the meantime?
I just repeat my second last sentence. I think there is no update on last week's call information. I said it. We are now in the budgeting phase, and of course, there we then are evaluating all the savings measures that are possible, and later on, there will be a decision on pricing.
Sorry, can you hear me? I can't, I'm still stuck in the waiting room, but I can hear you. I'm not sure you can hear me.
We can hear you now, Nikolas.
Okay. Okay, great. Can I ask a question? Sorry for not raising my hand because I don't have the functionality where my screen is stuck. Could I maybe just on the U.S., because we just talked about the U.S., the 4% growth, that's obviously a significant slowdown, and I just wanted to understand that a bit better. I know you had a tough comp, but is that the only explanation for that deceleration? Because it's basically, I think it's from 10% to 4%, no? Sequentially.
Yes, it is. It is. When we look on the run rate, we are doing quite well, meaning last year, Q3 was by far the strongest quarter we had in the North American territory. I can just repeat it to you. We had around €70 million in Q2 and Q4, and we had about €77 million in Q3 last year. This year, Q3 was okay, but it was a little bit less, and adjusted for FX, as you said, it was around 4% growth. When you look into the nine-month figures, we grew by 10% organically and 6% after FX, so meaning also here a little bit of negative impact, but Q4 should be then again a more normal quarter. Was it okay? Lars again.
Taking the opportunity. China, you said that production will start later this year, sales will start early next year. Shall we expect any additional ramp-up costs? Would you be willing to share with us when you expect production in China to be break-even? Is it possible to compare the gross margin or the profitability contribution? I assume production in China is cheaper, selling prices are also lower, but when it comes to profitability contribution, is there any information you're willing to share with us?
Yeah, of course, of course. There is, we are in plan, as also said in the call last week, start of production can be now, I think, in December, and the start of selling will be in March after the Chinese New Year. There will not be a significant amount of additional costs now, what do you say, ramp-up costs, so I think we are through that in the meantime. The margin contribution, at first, it will presumably be negative, that's for sure in the first quarters, years, depending on the development, of course. In the longer term, the plan is to have it approximately on group level, so meaning there is a lower price, but also there is lower production costs, and all in all, this should match that we come out with no margin dilution in the end.
Can I just ask a question on China?
Yes, you can.
Thank you. Yeah, just when you say no significant ramp-up costs, so the cost base, as we've seen it in Q3, is basically kind of that going forward is what we should expect, including the China model commercialization. Okay.
Yeah.
Okay, good. Can I just ask one more thing?
Yeah, of course, of course you can.
Sorry, I can't raise my hand. I'm still stuck in this initial screen. R&D was quite high. Can you maybe elaborate a bit on what happened there?
Yeah. On the one hand, yeah, you know that R&D is one of our major, let's say, topics we are investing in in order to keep our innovative level high. I think we brought out a lot of innovations in the last time. We are working a lot of the time on, let's say, connectivity, intelligence, software topics. The major part of the people we hire is software engineers in the meantime. On the other hand, this means we have more people with higher salaries, and of course, everybody is producing a cost then in his job. From that point of view, it's pure capacity aspect. The other thing is, but it is fee level, but it's maybe not that big.
We do some with the Wittenheim, with the capitalization of the Wittenheim facility, and then, of course, you know we have some cost allocation systems. We did some changes here with the finalization of the Wittenheim facility, and with that, there was a little bit a higher amount that is allocated to R&D, also contributing a few percentage points here. All over, it is really a capacity point of view, investing more into the future developments. Nikolas, all good?
Yes, thank you. Thank you. Perfect. That's very clear.
So Oscar.
Yes, can you hear me?
Yes, I can hear you. Perfect.
Yep. Yes. So obviously, Europe and Germany were pretty good. I was wondering if you could expand on that as to why that was and how that sort of functions into appliances versus after-sales.
Yes. I think we announced it. Germany was all over very strong. Two major reasons why it was maybe even a little bit stronger were we had a quite weak previous year quarter, and on the other hand, we had good business in the after-sales market this quarter, which can come in waves and go down in the next quarter again. We would say, of course, a growth rate of 18% for a German market is something you would not expect, of course, in the longer term. Even the 5% growth rate for the German market after nine months is really ambitious for such a highly penetrated market. Sometimes it comes in waves. We had discussions. I was in a conference yesterday, discussions quite often on that. Sometimes, just let me circle back to your other questions, and then we have an explanation for that maybe.
Also in Europe, we had strong development in most of the countries. There was no country that was really very weak. We had some very strong countries like the U.K., for example, or Italy, but there was growth in all the major countries. If you ask then, what is the reason? Is that the one reason? We can say no. It is really a broad development, and sometimes you see it in waves. You have weaker years where you maybe, for example, you invest in new sales guys, and of course, they are not efficient at the very first day. It takes 6, 12 months. Then they are getting efficient in the market. Then they meet more customers. They visit the customers, invite them to cooking live demonstrations. These figures are going up, and sometimes later, these customers buy a unit.
You cannot say whether hiring new people will be showing up in higher sales figures in one year or in two years or six months. This is something we need to wait for, and it depends on the customer's plans. That is why we say it's very, very important to continuously develop the sales organizations to increase the sales teams in a structured way so that we can fuel this growth story in the long-term view. In the short-term view, in single quarters, you never can say, will this be that figure or that figure? This is quite open. From that point of view, that's good news. There is not the one reason. For example, Asia last year with a big order, and when the order is gone, you have a weak following year.
I think the basis for the growth is strong, and that's why we are confident that we will continue on this path also in the coming quarters. Whether this is the 10% for Europe or just, let's say, 5-6%, which we deem as something sensible to assume in the mid-single-digit area for such a market with comparably high penetration levels, this is the other thing. It could be in this range.
Thanks.
You're welcome. Lars again. Happy to have you on the call.
I was shying away, but maybe, I mean, please help me understand again why it's taking management so long to decide on the U.S. pricing. I mean, you mentioned $25 million of tariff headwinds for next year. Let's assume no major additional headwind from the U.S. dollar staying on the current level. You will have personnel cost increases. Personnel costs to $70-$80 million. So 2%, I don't know, $5.5-$6 million. It already brings us to a $30 million headwind for next year, which is close to 10% of your EBIT. I mean, I would say it's a no-brainer that you need to increase prices significantly in order to secure the current margin level. What am I missing?
Yes, I would say, as I said before, maybe this was before you were able to join the call. We are in the middle of the budgeting process right now, where, of course, there is a lot of cost discussions. The first step at RATIONAL is always to start with efficiency measures, try to improve the efficiency to save costs. We will see, or we will get the results, I would say, in the coming weeks. We have maybe already first figures there, and then there will be a decision on do we need additional pricing measures to come in a range, in a margin range that we would want to see in the end that we would accept. From that point of view, difficult to say, yeah, why is that?
I think we are not in a rush because business is developing well, margins are on a good level, and I think there is no huge pressure for us now to react very short term. You are correct, sooner or later, there will be a decision, and we will then announce it as soon as possible. Sorry for not having a better answer for you here.
No. All good. Thank you very much.
Can I maybe just ask a follow-up? Sorry. I can't see who raised his hand, so go ahead. Just put me in the queue maybe.
In the end, it's only you and us, you and me, Nikolas. Join us whenever you like. You're not disturbing anyone.
Oh, really?
Yeah, yeah.
Okay, sorry. I can't even see who's there. Okay, good.
We would tell you.
All right, all right. Maybe can I just follow up on that, on the U.S. tariffs? You said $24 million-$25 million. It's my understanding that that is $14 million incremental. Is that correct? Because you already have $11 million this year. Or is it another $24 million?
No, 13 million incremental. Yeah, and that's also the same thing that this was what I was saying in my first initial statement before you were able to join. It's 24 million, means plus 13 million compared to 25, meaning an effect of around one percentage point compared to 25.
Yeah. Okay. That impact assumes no pricing, as we've just discussed, and no mitigating action? Or is there already some mitigating action that's netted off this?
No.
Okay.
No. Excluding more than what you said, yeah.
You do not have any visibility yet on what mitigating could do to offset this?
Not yet, no. I think this would be too early to say that. I think by the end of the year or early next year, we will have the complete information on that. I would assume that the decision would be made earlier before we have the final picture out of the planning, and then we say, , now we do an additional potential pricing action. I would assume this would be available earlier. I cannot tell you exactly when.
Okay. Can I ask maybe just one final question on this pricing and U.S. tariff thing? If you are thinking, which you know as a long-term investor, I would kind of go along the same lines, is you're thinking a bit more, let the others raise prices so we can take market share?
This is maybe one point that's important here to say, okay, if we would not increase prices at all, just a scenario right now, not an outlook, would mean, of course, in relative terms that we would get more attractive for our customers, for sure. Maybe this would also help us to improve sales growth. On the other hand, I can share one statement of an analyst with you. He said he would wish that we would increase prices by 4% because this would not be enough to, let's say, annoy customers and hinder them from investing because it's not too much, but it would show some strength that we would be able to increase prices. This would be a magnitude that he would rather see positive than not increasing prices at all.
From that point of view, I think there will be arguments for every action that we take, pros and cons, but in the end, I think it's a management decision, and I hope, as you do, we get it soon.
Yeah. Okay. Understood.
Oh, Lars?
Yeah. Just following, Nikolas. I'm a bit confused now. U.S. tariff impact, $13 million more next year than this year. So $11 million, $12 million this year, $25 million next year. So a total sum of at least $37 million.
No, no. 2024.
Is the total sum.
It's the total. This year, we had 11, meaning €13 million more.
Okay. Understood. Although not necessarily relevant at this stage, but just for the sentiment and the outlook, the iHexagon unchanged outlook, right? Break even in two to three years' time, slowly developing.
As I said, very, very difficult to say. I think to repeat what we maybe had in a few calls before is there are really long-term projects with our customers. There was a statement from one big hotel chain. They say for them, it takes around five to seven years until they decide on a bigger rollout with these units. This is sort of confirming our experience we make with big customers. Again, I want to quote this KFC experience that we had in the early 2000s. There we saw it started in 1997 or so, the project. The first bigger orders came in 2002. In 2004, there was a bigger rollout. This is confirming a little bit this five to seven-year approach in these big customer groups because there is a lot of testing, a lot of, yeah, pilot phases in there.
That is why we think for us, it's now important to get such stories like with Tottenham Hotspur, which can show the potential customers have. It is like we always said with the iVario, it might take a second or a third look until a customer decides, okay, I try one. Here we are in a completely new product category, which is not comparable with the new generation of an existing product. From that point of view, we take the time. Whether it's two years, three years, or five years, I would say nobody can really say right now.
Understood. Thank you.
May I maybe ask another question on the top line? The U.S. deceleration on a tough comp, you just mentioned, or we just discussed Europe, where you see a normalization to mid-single digit, and then Asia would probably have a tough Q4. I think that's what you mentioned in the call. Was it last week or the week before? I am just, can you give us the building blocks on how you will get back to the high single-digit growth? Because my understanding from the Q3 call was that you do expect a return to high single-digit growth next year. Maybe I misunderstood this.
Yes. Yeah, that's correct. So meaning that we come to an organic growth level of, let's say, yeah, 7-9% is something that should be realistic. I think we had now two quarters in a row where we were able to do this. I think the building block is indeed that we see in our figures, in our salespeople development, in our activity and development, meaning customer visits, cooking live participants, etc., that there is more customer contact. In the end, the organic growth rates are at levels in this 7-9% area. From that point of view, this makes us confident when we go on doing this in a successful way, that we are able to get the people to onboard them properly, that we are able to also translate this into sales figures. This is not depending on one certain region.
This mechanic is working everywhere more or less in the same way. Of course, in more penetrated regions, it is maybe more important to visit the people, to remind them of what is going on because they know the technology. In less penetrated markets, you need to get them in a cooking live demonstration to show this new technology to the people so that they understand all the advantages. I think this is maybe a little bit of difference, but I think customer contact is key to the future sales development. From that point of view, we are quite confident. Region-wise, it is still the same story. Overproportionate growth, double-digit in the overseas markets and mid-single-digit in Europe and in Germany, maybe rather in the lower single-digit area in total coming out at approximately 7-9%.
What will be then with the FX development next year, which we see this year very negative? This is another thing we can maybe not control in the same way. Of course, we see that there might be some negative impact next year as well. Just out of the development of this year could be a little bit of negative headwind. On an organic way, what we can control ourselves, we are confident to go back to that track that we had before the crisis.
Okay. Understood. So you would expect Americas to accelerate again?
Absolutely. Organically, Americas or North America is at some 10% growth. It is okay. Maybe it is at the lower end of the range we would expect, but it is more or less in line with what we would expect.
All right. Thank you.
You're welcome. Oh, is there any more questions? I don't see any more questions. I thank you for participating. If there are questions coming up afterwards, please don't be shy and either write an email or give me a call. This is well accepted, of course. Take care. I'm happy to see some of you next week in Wittenheim and the others then next year. We will presumably announce preliminary figures early February, I think fifth or sixth or so, and then have the press conference earnings call and the disclosure of the annual report on 19th of March. With that.
Great. Thank you very much.
Bye-bye. Thank you very much and take care.
Thanks, Stefan.
Thank you. Bye-bye.
Bye-bye.