So good evening, everyone, and welcome to the Full Year/Q4 2025 Investor and Analyst recap call. Obviously, we are not going to provide any new information here. We are just summarizing the information that has been shared with the market over the last couple of conference days, and we remind you of the changes that are going to be expected here looking forward regarding portfolio changes. As a reminder, if you have any questions, please raise your hand. If you are dialed in via telephone and would like to ask a question, please press star three. Star three. Thank you. We have already released the expectation for the full year 2025, with the ad hoc statement that was published on December 18th.
We are expecting that we are now disclosing only the defense business for 2025 and reporting the automotive business as discontinued business. So please adjust the figures in your expectation accordingly. For 2026, we are expecting that the NVL business will be closed in the first quarter, so we are expecting to report 10 months of NVL business for 2026 onwards. For 2025, the expectation has been that we are growing the defense business in the range of 30%-35%, and that the margin will be in the range of 18.5%-19%.
Cash flow has been really good due to prepayments done by the customers towards the end of the quarter, and we have communicated that this will be significantly above 50%. Obviously, our rolling forecast is including here the last three years to come to that figure. We are, or we have given an outlook for 2026. This is a first indication, not yet a full guide, because we have not given any information on the consolidation line. So in operational terms, we are expecting the defense business to grow EUR 15-16 billion, defense business, including NVL.
We are here expecting, or we gave an indication at the Capital Market Day, that sales console will be around 12-ish%. From the operating margin perspective for 2026, we have looked at a range of 18%-20%, again, including the NVL business. Cash conversion rate is expected to be again very, very high due to the high orders that we are expecting for 2026, because now I think this is the most important news now for 2026, which has already been shared with everybody, that the German customer is now really starting to sign the contracts over the next couple of quarters, and that is including major orders for land systems and for naval system.
The biggest contract we have ever signed is now expected for the Boxer. The Arminius contract includes a two-phased contract, EUR 12.5 billion fixed contract for Boxers, which have to be executed until 2030, and then an option or a frame agreement for the period 2030-2035 of an additional EUR 25 million-- billion, sorry. We are looking at additional orders for the naval business for F126 and F127, which combined is around 12-13 billion. We are going to see more contracts for tracked vehicle like Leopard and Puma in Germany and additional ammunition contract and truck contract.
In total, this will be German orders of EUR 67 billion from Germany over the next four quarters. That is going to be financed from the new German financial facility here, whatever it takes approach in Germany, plus then international orders, which will be helped by the new safe financing facilities from Brussels. First contracts that are expected from taking advantage of the safe construct is Romania and Italy for land vehicles. Here, we will see new Lynx contracts and Panther contracts from Italy. This is a total of around EUR 10 billion. Romania will be a package, including Lynx and other stuff, but no further details have been shared so far.
We are expecting here another EUR 3 billion from the Ukrainian customer over the next quarters. So in total, the expectation for order intake in 2026 will be almost the same level or even higher than what we have achieved at the end of last year. Adjusted for the civil business, we will come close to around EUR 70 billion, and we're expecting here more around EUR 80 billion of order intake for 2026. If you include your sales for 2026, backlog at the end of the year is expected to be around EUR 135 billion.
Since especially here, the Boxer contract is including a fixed share, the amount of cash that we are getting at an advance payment will be a significant up to 30% potential on the first EUR 12.5 billion, will put us in a very cash positive situation. We closed 2025 here net debt free, and we're expecting that 2026 will continue here in a very good cash environment. As we said here, the expectation for NVL is to be paid out of existing cash facilities during the quarter. We have made good progress in the disposal of the automotive business.
So here we are also expecting that we are going to see here results latest early Q2 of 2026. I think with all these remarks, I have nothing else here, and open now the discussion to the public. So if you have any questions, please raise your hand and we will go take them one by one.
Then your line is open. You have to unmute yourself.
Yeah, I have done now. Can you hear me?
Yep.
Thank you. Thanks for taking my questions. So first of all, I have a question around what Mr. Papperger said in the FT today, talking around EUR 300 billion of orders from Europe until 2030. Could you give some color on that? I mean, is that something he mentioned also during the conferences or anything you can, can mention on that one?
We did not put a total number here for Europe over the next years. But obviously, we know that Germany is going to place here around EUR 500 billion of orders over the next 10-15 years, and we are going to see already here EUR 67 billion in 2026. We have shared with the market that from the first EUR 100 billion special fund we achieved around or more than 40%. We have not given an indication how much we're expecting from the EUR 500 billion, but we were confident that we are not stopping at the EUR 67 billion.
We are expecting that there will be further business being supported by the safe facilities from Brussels, and that the first EUR 10 billion from Romania and Italy is only the initial step.
The remarks you made on the Boxer contracts, I mean, how does the Skyranger fit into that? The one, the order that we're still waiting for.
The Arminius contract is covering a number of different platforms. So far, we have not given any details which platforms regarding the numbers on the platforms. Here, only qualitatively, that there will be infantry fighting vehicles, air defense vehicles, special purpose vehicles like engineering vehicles, and mine clearing vehicles. What we had shared with the market was that we are now dedicating lines between KMW and Rheinmetall to increase efficiency. So, while the historical split was more complicated, we are now looking to have really dedicated lines here to increase the output.
The idea is to have the capacities ready by 2027, and that we then can execute the orders until the rest of the decade. The point why we do get advanced payments from the customer is because we are expecting to increase the level of automation for the Boxer vehicles for certain parts of the construction, like the welding and the painting, and therefore do qualify for advanced payment from the German customer.
Final question from me for now is just on the contract for the F126. I mean, we read that TKMS has now been awarded a pre-contract for the MEKO.
Mm-hmm.
Does that mean anything in terms of your potential, or is that still an open, open decision?
From our perspective, the F-126 is a must because the MEKO does not have the capabilities of the F-126. Germany requires a dedicated mine hunting capabilities in the North Atlantic and the Baltics. Here, that is the purpose of the F-126, and the MEKO will only be awarded as an interim solution here, if the deliveries of the F-126 would be too late for the customer. There is room for all three variants here, F-126, F-127, and the MEKO here, but especially the frigates here will be required because of their special design.
Thanks. I go back online.
Thanks, Sven.
Mm-hmm. The next question is from caller, user three. Your line is now open.
Hi, it's Christoph from Deutsche Bank. Can you hear me?
Yep.
Thank you for taking the question. I would have two, please. The first one on order intake related to Q4. So assuming most of the releases that you had actually have been booked in Q4 as well, I get to around, like, EUR 10 billion. Could you comment if that ballpark is correct? And has there been any indication in recent meetings or so how much of that is actually fixed and from Germany, and would that be eligible for prepayments? As a first question. And then the second question, just on the 2025 guidance. You had a divisional guide. Obviously, you didn't confirm that with the ad hoc on the power systems disposal.
Was there any comment if the divisional guidance on the defense divisions at least still stands for 25? And any comments where, for example, weapon and ammo, et cetera, will be closer to the high end or low end, or anything in that regard?
Yeah.
In the last few meetings. Thank you.
On the divisional setup, I mean, given the fact that cash flow at Q, in Q4 was pretty good, there had been some contracts which did see solid advance payments or prepayments here. The ballpark figure is correct. What we see here for 2026 is that the expectation that especially ammunition is going to increase significantly given the fact that the capacities which we have started in South Africa, Spain, and now in Germany with the Unterlüß plant are now growing into their capacity.
We share that the expectation for the top line would be a growth from EUR 3.5 billion to around EUR 5 billion in 2026. And obviously, that is our most profitable business.
Thank you.
The next question is from caller user 14. Your line is now open.
Hey, Dirk, it's Sam Burgess. Can you hear me?
Hi, Sam. Yeah.
Cool. Just a quick one on the, Murcia facility and the permitting. Have you got any update there on how those, how that's progressing? That'd be really helpful. Thank you.
Yeah. As I just mentioned, here we're expecting a big growth in ammunition in 2026. So that includes the full availability of all capacities, Murcia in 2026 is up and running. Permits are in place-
Okay, great.
And we're expecting here a complete normalization of the business, which will then contribute to the EUR 5 billion top line.
Right. Okay. So what, what was that you said? Okay, great. Sorry, I might have missed that, but in terms of Q4 impact, I think there was some ammunition that was held up there waiting for delivery.
Yeah, we gave some indication-
Can you just help us think through the effect?
We gave, we gave some indication in the Q3 call here. I think what we mentioned then was up to EUR 200 million of impact in Q3. Which we had not talked or I have not given an update here recently. What we explained is that we had seen some changes in the customer acceptance of smaller lots and only shells instead of full shots. So that helped as well, and we were mitigate here to close the gap, which was widening in the first half then in the second half of last year. But the remaining impact was still there.
Okay. Thank you very much. Helpful.
Next question is from caller user 19. Your line is open. You have to unmute-
Can you hear me?
yourself on your phone.
It's Sebastian here from BNP. I hope you can hear me now.
Yep.
Okay, good stuff. Thank you. So the first one would just be quickly on your comment, on the free cash flow side. So I understood that you would have been net debt free at the end 2025. Can you confirm that?
Yes.
Okay. And the next one is just the qualification or clarification on the consolidation line. So you said that the EUR 15-16 billion would be gross revenue, from which one then would have to sort of indicatively deduct the 12%. And on the margin range that you provided, the 18%-20% for 2026, is this already including consolidation or the-
The net figure. So what I said regarding top line is that we have qualified 15-16 billion operational growth, and that we mentioned at the Capital Market Day, 12% consolidation effect. We will obviously provide a full guidance here with the disclosure of the full year figures. The margin indication that we have given here, between 18%-20%, is a net figure.
Okay. That's helpful. And then for cash flow again, you singled out the prepayments on the ammunition contract of up to 30%. Can you also elaborate on the overall profile and prepayments that you would see for the rest of the more than EUR 60 billion or the remaining-
There are more contracts-
EUR 50 billion
... which would qualify for prepayments. So we think again, that 2026 will be a good year. Here, details will be shared with the full year figures.
All right. Thank you.
... The next question is from caller us er 5. Your line is open.
Okay.
I can hear you.
No, this is David, David Perry. Am I the next one up?
You're on the line, yeah.
Yeah. Hi, hi. Actually, I apologize because I had exactly the same two questions as Sebastian, but let me just ask them slightly differently for full clarification, if you don't mind. So I don't think there's anything below free cash flow, apart from the dividend in 2025. I don't think there was any M&A, so can we just back out that it was about, if my math is correct, it was about EUR 1.7 billion of free cash flow for 2025?
We did not disclose how much free cash flow we are at in net debt free. How much positive cash has not been mentioned, so I cannot answer your question.
Okay. And then the second one is, and maybe I'm being a bit stupid. But I wasn't at the CMD. Just wanna make sure I understand the EUR 15-16 billion. Are you saying it's EUR 15-16 billion, and then we take off about 12%,
Correct.
Okay, so the, the actual number will be below 15?
Correct.
For 2026. Okay, thank you. And could you tell us in absolute terms how much do you think you'll consolidate for NVL for the next months?
Yeah. NVL will here be around, and that's the figure we have shared, and so that's not new information. Due to the fact that we are not consolidating 12 months, only 10 months, and due to the fact that F126 is a little bit delayed, we have given indication that sales from NVL in 2026 will be EUR 1.3 billion-EUR 1.5 billion.
Your share for the 10 months?
Yeah.
All right. Thanks a lot, Dirk.
You're welcome.
Cheers, bye.
There's a question from Sven Weier. Your line is open.
Yeah, one more from me, please. It's on the ammunition side, and can you just remind us how it will work on the contracts there? I mean, I think you're no longer expecting to get fixed contracts for ammunition, but to keep framework contracts, but are you going to get a new framework contract there?
No, the expectation is-
How, how should that work?
We're getting contracts that will fully load the German plant here over the next years with fixed contracts.
So it should be fixed contracts, but so annual tranches of that then, or?
Whether this will be multi-year or annual tranches, I can't say here, but it's not that we are going to see here frameworks. We have an existing framework here, and then the fixed contracts would first eat into the existing frame and then later exceed the existing frame. So expectation is that that will be relatively soon fulfilled.
Yeah, because that's not part of the EUR 60 billion really, right? So that comes on top later.
Yeah, that's not part. There is a share for 2026 here, but we're seeing them more in the years after. And obviously, if we are just converting frames into fixed contract, that would not increase the total backlog in 2026.
And the Boxer contracts you mentioned are just to get, including the frame, to get to, like, a 100% level for the army. It's not covering the 140% reserve, right?
Um-
For later then.
Well, there is. Actually, we are expecting that we have here the initial contract until 2030, then the next one from 2030- 2035, and there's a potential then for a third tranche post under 2035. That would be on the base of a 140% assumption.
Okay.
The point really is that until 2030, we are delivering into the existing force, so we are not depending on the capability of the Bundeswehr to increase here the number of soldiers so only to a certain extent. But then post 2030 here they need to increase here the Then the the troops, and that would then require as well as well additional contracts to supply the additional brigades.
Understood. Thank you, Dirk.
The next question is from Marco Pelosi. Your line is open.
Hi, thank you for taking my question. Could you confirm again the guidance for 2026 revenues by segment, possibly? I think you mentioned the ammunition segment. Could you be more specific on vehicles and electronics solutions, please?
Yeah. The reporting structure in 2026 will see the separation of electronic solutions into air defense and into digital systems, and we will include as well the NVL business. The EUR 15-16 billion are composed of the EUR 5 billion of the ammunition business, up to EUR 6 billion of the vehicle systems, around EUR 2 billion for digital systems, around EUR 1 billion for the air defense business, and then up to EUR 1.5 billion for the naval business.
... Thank you. And, I think before you said, Amos, for the ammunition segment, you were guiding between 3.5 and 5. Is that correct?
No, from 3.5- 5.
Exactly, yes. Thank you.
The next question is from George. Your line is open.
Hi, just a clarification on the German defense order intake for 2026. Did you say EUR 67 billion?
Yes.
Okay, why is it so exact?
Well, that's the figure we know. There might be some smaller ones here, but that is the programs we are knowing that are up for discussion here over the next couple of quarters, and especially Arminius is a contract which we are currently in the negotiation with the German government. So we already have a relatively good view on that business.
Thank you.
Right now, there are no further questions. Oh, there comes one. Daniel Gleim, your line is open.
Yes, good evening, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. Dirk, could you clarify whether Arminius is roughly half of the EUR 80 billion order intake for 2026, or in other words, that the frame component will also be booked in 2026? Thank you.
Yeah, EUR 37 billion will be booked in 2026.
Thank you.
There are no further questions.
Perfect. So thank you for your interest here. We're entering quiet period after the call, and looking forward to talk to you then after we are starting the reporting of the full year figures. Good night, and see you soon. Goodbye.