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Earnings Call: Q4 2022

Mar 30, 2023

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. I am Francie, your conference call operator. Welcome. Thank you for joining the STRATEC conference call regarding today's announcement for the full year 2022 financial results. Throughout today's recorded presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. It's my pleasure. I would now like to turn the conference over to Marcus Wolfinger, CEO of STRATEC. Please go ahead, sir.

Marcus Wolfinger
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, STRATEC

Thank you, Francie. Good morning in the United States, and good afternoon Europe. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to our 2022 financial results disclosure conference. Actually, before we start, I would like to mention some housekeeping stuff. First of all, I don't think that I need to walk you through the Safe Harbor statement. You can actually download that presentation either from the web tool, or you can download it from our website. We split this presentation as always into actually four major blocks. First of all, I would like to get you an overview over the fiscal year 2022, followed by a review of the financial results, and then I would like to get you an outlook. After that, we directly dive into Q&A if there are any questions.

We have given supplementary information in the appendix, which is available in the downloaded presentation. One of the core elements is definitely the strengthening of the management team with the appointment of Georg Bauer, to the Board Member and Chief Commercial Officer, effective January 1st, 2022. With his knowledge about the industry and the sales channels in particular, and as an outstanding expert of this industry, Georg is certainly one of the core assets of STRATEC in the future. As expected, sales declined, actually declined slightly more than we expected, with 8% in constant currency down to EUR 274 million, which is actually mainly based upon the really tough comps, and delivery backlog, to a super tense supply chain situation, particularly for electronic components.

Adjusted EBIT margin with 16.4% in line with the initially set corridor. Actually, this is at the lower edge of what we foresee. Unfortunately, the end of the year didn't develop as we expected. It's still in line with the targeted corridor. We had the successful launch of a variety of molecular systems, particularly one in Q3, which is a digital PCR system, other instruments have been launched as well. Even in the light of the outlook for 2023, which is not really satisfying, we believe that particularly towards the end of the year 2023, the newly launched systems will be in a position to offset the negative contribution of those instruments which are seeing lower demand.

The lower demand are actually mainly seen because we see the super tough comps coming from the period after COVID-19. We have a really well-stocked development pipeline, a high number of ongoing negotiations, but even those instruments which will hit the market in the next years or actually quarter are very promising. That's why we are not really super disappointed about the current development, particularly as we see that the operational development unfortunately decoupled slightly from the development with our new projects. But we are really, I think, very well positioned that those new launches and the projects in pipeline and foreseen upswing of those products which are now seeing headwinds after COVID-19, that altogether we will soon get back on that nice growth track which we have seen over the past years.

Number of employees up by 5.9%. Actually, even in the light of our earnings improvement program and in the light of the negative operational development, we still see a growing number of employees, which is mainly related to our growing development activities. The board of management and the supervisory board will suggest the AGM a dividend growth which actually shows our positive momentum and which actually shows our confidence in the future of the company, that the current, let me call it dip even if it's still a nice top-line growth, let me call it dip, that even this dip is from our end short-term.

That's why we continue to work on our dividend track record and will suggest the AGM a small growth rate on the dividend suggested. Now getting to the financial review. As mentioned before, here are the financials. Sales after EUR 287 million in 2021. Sales of EUR 274 million, which is a decline of 4.4%. Q4 a growth rate of about 8% from about EUR 62 million to about EUR 67 million. Adjusted EBITDA, a decline of 12% coming from EUR 66.6 million in 2021 to EUR 58.6 million in 2022. Fourth quarter, a growth of 17.3%, which is actually a nice achievement.

Actually shows the progress we made in the product portfolio over the year. Adjusted EBITDA margin on a full year basis for 2022 with 21% after 23% in 2021. All the subsequent earnings figures are actually nicely in line with EBIT and EBITDA and EBIT and EPS. There is nothing special in between, which is, gets us to an adjusted basic earnings per share of EUR 2.86 after EUR 3.73 in 2021. And as mentioned, a comparable progress with EPS as we saw in EBITDA and EBIT. In this slide, you can see the sales over years after the nice growth rates we showed in 2019.

We saw the more normalized year in 2020, first year of corona, nice growth rates for 2021. Like the last super strong corona quarter in 2022, Q1, and then more normalized quarter gets us back to where we are at this point. As mentioned, fiscal year 2022 sales of reduction of 4.4% to EUR 274 million , which represents 8.3% decline in constant currency. We have to see that we see some headwinds here. One is the strong pandemic sales with MDx products, which are now coming back. Actually, you know, we had this discussion during the entire corona pandemic that are we selling more instruments than foreseen?

Will we have a saturation in the demand? Actually, we, and that is not only us, this is actually the industry as well, saw some stronger decline rate as initially expected, and I would like to dive into some details. I think this is really important to understand what's going on here, is that when we were attending JPMorgan conference at the very beginning of the year, we certainly had a variety of customer meetings where the world still seems to be in order. Like, we saw some nice demands, forecasts were okay.

Actually, we have brought the budgeting cycle behind us, went through everything and actually we saw that particularly our newer projects were actually strong enough to offset those slight declines, which were foreseen in some of our molecular products. Between now and between then, beginning of January 2023 and now, we definitely saw that the expectations of the leading diagnostics companies changed materially. Actually, eight out of 10 of the top diagnostics companies are disappointed with their projections for 2023. We know that the majority of these eight out of 10 programs have actually established cost reductions themselves already in order to tackle that situation where the decline rate is actually way steeper than everybody expected.

We were actually surprised that we received a variety of weaker than expected forecast updates. Actually, something which didn't happen in the history of the company, that we had some extraordinary forecast adjustments coming through our customers. That actually led us to an unplanned review of our 2023 forecast, which actually led at the end to this ad hoc announcement, that mandatory stock announcement we have released a couple of weeks ago. I personally believe that we actually took a snapshot at a very negative moment in time. Talking to our customers, we already see some improvements here and there. However, we have given that new guidance and from here, I believe we have at least mainly bottomed out. We see good progress here and there.

We will establish that cost reduction and earnings improvement program where we will give details in our Q1 disclosure call. From here, we start into that year of 2023, and I would like to already mention that, and I'll dive into details later on, that we actually plan to get back into the area of +16% EBIT margin on a full year 2024 basis. December 30 of 2024, we definitely will are planning for +16% EBIT margin. On the negative side, again, still providing some headwinds, but the major improvement here is that delivery backlog, which is based upon the availability of certain components.

Again, like in other industries, we can report that the situation has mainly improved, that pricing, prices are starting to normalize, which again, makes us positive about the development of 2023. On the positive side, we have a strong growth with development and services, and we have positive growth rates in all our other. Let me say those, particularly those product lines which haven't seen extraordinary high tailwinds during COVID-19, and we see positive growth rates in the immunoassay, mainly immunohematology. For some of, this is actually a minor business line, clinical chemistry, we see some nice growth rates. Now breaking down sales by operating divisions. Systems are at -20% after -15% in 2021.

See our in service parts and consumables from 2021 to 2022 coming from -6% to -10% constant on a constant exchange rate. In development, we saw that nice growth rate, which we already discussed in the course of 2023, with +73% after +77% in 2021. If we break that down, like between our main sales stream, which means service parts and consumables, like steady development, from 33% in 2021, excuse me, to 32% in 2022. Certainly with systems coming back from 58% 2021 to 51%, now half of revenues in 2022.

As already mentioned, very strong growth rates and the contribution of development and service activities, which actually shows which development pipelines have been pushed over the finish line in 2022. Again, this is the moment in time where I'm typically complaining about IFRS 15 with the duration of our development project of three, four in some cases, including approval. It might even last five years until we get something to the market from the first idea. The first moment in time where capitalization activities are starting until we can really recognize revenues, it might take us those four years. This is a very volatile figure. I can only mention again that the performance of the development department of STRATEC and the revenue recognition after IFRS 15 are not going in line.

2022 was one of those years where a lot of things have been finished. It doesn't mean that in 2021 or in 2022, those activities have been materially lower. Again, it's just mentioning that a lot of products hit the market in 2022, which gives us that confidence of a established growth rate in 2023 and 2024. Talking about EBIT and EBIT margin on an adjusted level, fiscal year 2022 adjusted EBIT margin at EUR 45 million, which is a decline of 17% year-over-year. Adjusted EBIT margin were with 16.4%, roughly in line with the expectations which have been set out at the beginning of 2022.

Again, here, a variety of headwinds position like particularly, a product mix, which was super strong, and we already discussed it during COVID-19, that particularly margin-heavy products saw some nice tailwinds during corona, and now with a more normalized product mix. EBIT and EBIT margin had to come back. Same thing applied with economies of scale. We were actually driving manufacturing to the edge of capacity level, where certainly economies of scale are coming along in a positive sense now with a more normalized utilization of capacities. Certainly after that stressing period where we have driven capacity levels to the edge of this, the capabilities of the organization, we have this negative economies of scale.

Certainly input costs, which are actually a real challenge and actually putting those inflation and cost increase forward to our customers is another challenge we are facing these days. We bring that forward, I would like to mention that already, which will continue to help us to improve that situation with our EBIT margin. On the other side, we see high earnings contribution from realized development sales. Talking about the performance of the segment. Again, a very positive development with our smart consumables in line with expectation for 2023. We actually see the same progress here in smart consumables. Very well-positioned in the industry and a nice development pipeline, which gets to that point where those projects which were brought on board after the acquisition are now starting to pay dividend.

In between those huge investment cycles, are actually showing nice traction as far as EBIT margin is concerned, but top line growth certainly as well. On an instrumentation side with a lower decline, some of the molecular instruments were actually manufactured in Diatron, which showed some nice progress in Diatron during COVID. Now these revenues are coming back for one of our veterinary instruments. We are in the middle of a generation change or generation shift to the next generation, where we have to go through a learning curve with that new generation, which is a material component to top line and certainly bottom line as well. That again is leading to that negative scaling effect.

We hope that and actually part of our earnings improvement program is actually part of bringing the EBIT margin of Diatron forward in the quarters to come. Cash flow and net debt. Cash trading cash flows a decline again after that super strong phase of corona and now very much driven. Again, I would like to mention that we are still facing tough comps. This is actually not a representative figure. I think we will actually level out some kind of halfway between cash flow on an operating level with -80% to EUR 10 million. As you see investment activities and financing activities on an in-line development, which is leading to a stable equity ratio. Cash at the end of the period reduced by 50%, which is actually mainly working capital.

Part of our earnings improvement program, which doesn't have like a material contribution to earnings improvement, but certainly a meaningful improvement to the cash flow, is that now as the procurement side is starting to normalize more, that we can materially reduce working capital and therefore improve the cash position. We had to go into inventory in that painful situation in 2022. With normalized procurement levels, we are very positive that we can get back to a more normalized working capital position as well. On the outlook side, sales expected to grow between 8% and 10% on a constant currency basis. I think this is in line with expectations. Certainly Adjusted EBIT margin of around 12%-14% is everything but within the expected levels.

I would like to mention that I believe that we made that snapshot at a very, let me say, unrepresentative moment in time after the forecast adjustments of some of our customers. I mentioned that eight out of 10 of the diagnostics companies disappointed with their margin expectations for some for 2023. I believe, I personally believe that some of them did some actually kitchen thinking in order to adjust expectations. We had to act accordingly. We got this very unsatisfying forecast. We took that snapshot at the moment in time. I think from here on it can only become better. However, we had to adjust expectations accordingly. This is mainly driven by product mix and input cost inflation. I think both things are improving these days, which makes me very confident.

The conversion to a new system, particularly in our Diatron business unit, is in progress, and we hope that we can show improvements there as well. Also you might have seen in our press release that we have given an early indication for Q1 2023, as we certainly want to make sure that you are all aware of those tough comps for Q1 2023, which will be that last quarter, where we are comparing to a super strong first quarter 2022, which was the Omicron quarter, as you may recall. As you might recall that this was where we had some super strong sales in some regions of the world and where our customers were still expecting nice outflow of instruments for the remainder of the year.

Thus, our 2023 outlook implies a significant revenue decline for the first quarter. In addition, sales contribution from newly launched instruments and its related efficiency gains in production should continuously increase in the course of the year and should show some progress in the course of 2023. Thus, also profitability in Q1 should be expected to be initially lower as compared to the second half of the year 2023. However, this is nothing new and is already fully incorporated in our full year's guidance for 2023. Segment reporting is going to change as well. Georg Bauer has assumed responsibility for sales and business development activities of all the previous business units in a centralized and cross-product manner, which will definitely be super supportive to the long-term growth of the company.

Particularly activities, and our target market of the three business units, previously instrument, market consumables and Diatron, have converged significantly over the last years. That's why we are changing from Q1 2023, that reporting will take place in form of one segment company. The previous segment reporting, instrumentation and Diatron, and market consumables will be the new one segment company. Group sales, however, will be reported into those four operating areas. Systems and components, which becomes more and more important, certainly service parts, maintenance parts and consumables, and certainly the development and service activities, in a separate reporting for one of those operating areas. I think this helps us very much.

I know we. Some of you may recall that we often enough had discussions about why we are reporting some of our consumables in instruments, some of our consumables in Diatron, and other consumables in the smart consumables line. Why we are reporting some of the instruments which have actually been developed through instruments but are manufactured through Diatron, why we are reporting that under Diatron, although the originator is instruments, and so on and so forth. I think with the way how we are integrating the different segments, we cause more distraction and more confusion in the reporting scheme, rather than illuminating some of the details.

That's why we, together with our supervisory board, came to the conclusion that with the higher degree of integration, and particularly Georg's role as an overlapping role between the segments, that one segment company reporting is actually showing a higher degree of transparency than the reporting we had so far with instruments, Diatron, and smart consumables. Focus for 2023 and beyond is definitely the initiative and implementation of the efficiency enhancement program and increase of the company-wide efficiency to the pandemic level. I think what we can expect from our earnings improvements, which is certainly part of that, is that we have not yet entirely concluded the assessment. Thus, I'm not really able to share many details of that today.

As already communicated, details will most likely be provided in our Q1 earnings call at the end of April. What I can say is that we certainly have the ambition to get our margin back to a more satisfying level already in 2024. If you would ask me, I would consider an initial improvement towards an Adjusted EBIT margin. Let's say in the area of 16%, I already mentioned that, in 2024, to be set as our goal. Not all of this margin progress will come from the efficiency program I've mentioned. Also other drivers like the learning curve for some of our new products, like portfolio mix effects, and better scalability with new programs, price increases and so on.

Tackling price increases on the input side, getting back to pre-pandemic levels in some areas might help us. As mentioned, I think the snapshot we took was really a poor choice in terms of timing. That makes me very confident about the progress of this year already, but more towards full year's report in 2024. Certainly the focus for 2023 and beyond is to negotiate further price adjustments, which is part of the initiative I already mentioned, and product portfolio adjustments in light of the continuing input cost inflation. We want to manage and actually process our well-filled M&A pipeline. We have a couple of things in the pipeline.

Things are getting more concrete. We hope that we can talk about details of that already in the next two to three months. We have coordinated a parallel ramp up of the newly launched instruments and to fix some issues within a common time frame. We want to execute our deal pipeline regarding new development and supply agreements. A nice line-up here as well. We need to push things over the finish line. Again, I think just if we see the number and apply statistics, we can look into a super well-filled development pipeline over the years to come. We certainly want to utilize the new corporate structure to continue to join forces across sites. This gets me to the commencement of the Q&A session, and I would like to hand back to the host Francie, who will explain how to work us through the Q&A.

Operator

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star followed by two. Anyone who has a question may press star followed by one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. We have the first question from Odysseas Manesiotis from BERENBERG. Please go ahead.

Odysseas Manesiotis
Research Analyst, BERENBERG

Hi there. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two, please. First one on your sales guidance for full year 2023. Given that some of your key customers have announced some product launch delays after you published your preliminary results, I want to ask whether that guidance includes this product launch delays. Second, on the EBIT margin, since compared to Q4, I think your full-year guidance for 2023 does imply a bit of an expansion. Could you guide us through the bridge? Does it have to do with the learning curve of your new product launches that you mentioned? Could you just give us a bit more color around that expansion? Thank you.

Marcus Wolfinger
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, STRATEC

Absolutely. Thank you very much. Actually, the clear answer is yes. We were aware of some of the delays which have been later on announced by some of our customers, and I'm not wanna talk about details. Some of our customers announced details, not all, but some. These were already incorporated in the, in the guidance update. Obviously this is like, was something which was, particularly as far as development activities are concerned, a known fact in the course of a development program and is part of regular project management. Bridging the learning curve, certainly as mentioned, like with high levels of inventories with some of the molecular instruments within some of our customers, generation changes ongoing. The generation change of the switch from an old generation to a new generation in our veterinary business.

Some ramp up curves like with the Becton Dickinson program, like with our CLIA. We have actually done a bottom-up planning for full year 2023 and the beginning of 2024 already. The bridge actually confirms the guidance given. As mentioned, I can only reiterate myself when saying that the snapshot which has been taken was probably a bad timing. We received those forecasts. Our customers are bound to a certain duration of the forecast and the way how forecasts have to be transferred into orders. That's, at this point, we had to report in a way how we did. If we see the progress. You'll see that in our Q1 report.

I mentioned that already, that Q1 of 2023 has this still tough comps to Q1 2022, and that we will see top line and bottom line progression. Again, all based upon actual forecast, actual bridge, actual bottom up on a detailed product level basis that we will show that progress in the course of the year 2023.

Odysseas Manesiotis
Research Analyst, BERENBERG

That's all clear. Thank you.

Marcus Wolfinger
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, STRATEC

You're very welcome.

Operator

The next question comes from Oliver Reinberg from Kepler. Your question, please.

Oliver Reinberg
Head of German Equity Research, Kepler Cheuvreux

Thanks very much for taking my questions. Three if I may. Firstly, Marcus, is there any kind of chance you can give some more color on this kind of bridge, how to move back to towards this kind of 16%? If we just rank the topics, I mean, what is important of taking costs out, what is important of pricing, what is the importance of volume leverage, and probably mix with smartphones? But just to get a kind of feeling which of of these kind of topics is most important. Secondly, on pricing, if you try to push some kind of more questions, which is fair enough?

I guess was also part of the agenda in 2022, so I was really wondering if you can share some kind of impression of what the reception and feedback from clients were when you are now knocking at the door a year later, which is fair enough, but obviously still something that needs some kind of conviction. And then thirdly, just what you want to get out of the way, can you just give us some kind of framework, how you figure out it's the kind of safety net, negative of minus 60% or worse, and with marginally, please just get a feeling of the negatives out.

Marcus Wolfinger
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, STRATEC

Thanks a lot for those questions. Actually, like if we look into the details, what are the priorities of topics we are working on. Certainly, let's say product mix is not the most important topic, but which is something which is more or less coming along automatically.

Like, you know, we are in an early stage of sales of some of the projects. Over the year, those newer projects... Actually, you know, we discussed that during COVID-19 that we have a nice lineup of projects. Actually, we expected that the ramp-up curve of those new products might be capable of offsetting the expected decline with some of our products which had nice tailwinds during COVID-19. Didn't work out. The ramp-down curve of the COVID-19 exposed products was way faster than expected from everybody. If you look into the industry, this actually surprised everybody. We actually got surprised as well. Particularly if you're looking into the point-of-care applications, you know, it's a disaster if you're really looking at the details. Doesn't affect us that much, we are partly affected.

Definitely the product mix. At this point, certainly sales of some of the molecular products has bottomed out because towards the end of COVID-19, some of our customers actually still had high inventory levels. They are now working down those inventory levels, and as soon as the inventory levels are getting down to a more normalized monthly run rate, they will continue to buy more products from us. We see that already in some of our forecasts. First element. That's more or less an automatic measure, right? The thing we need to work most on is the combination of price increases as well as tackling the input side, you know.

Some of our customers, particularly on the electronic side, they actually cleared their product portfolio, which makes some of the electronic components, particularly those ones which are used in our instruments for years, which is part of a modular development approach, that you might have some legacy electronic components which are now tough to tackle. As mentioned already last year, we are doing redesign and so on in order to get the situation under control. Which means, on the one hand side, tackling any price increase on the input side and in some cases even bringing input prices back to a pre-pandemic level. That's something where we have really put a lot of effort in, and our development teams are really working on that level.

This actually partly already gets me to your second question, is, we need to understand that it is super difficult to establish price increases. Reason is particularly in diagnostics, but in all the other markets as well, where we are seeing multipliers, is that these are highly regulated markets. At the end of that chain, we have payers like government or insurance companies, which have established contracts for the performance of tests with laboratories.

There are predefined prices, which means the laboratories have predefined contracts and the pricing set up with the majority of our customers, which means if company X sells a test to laboratory Y, they have a three-year pricing contract where they establish a price that aPerformance of test A costs Y euro or dollar, which makes it super difficult for our customers to increase prices, which means a lot of the efficiency, as far as pricing is concerned, lies in the negotiation between STRATEC and its customers. We have to take that situation very serious about the value contribution we are offering to our customers. In some cases, we can only increase margin by efficiency gains. In some cases, we can actually establish price increases. Obviously, it's not super well received by our customers.

If we manage to get through a price increase cycle last year, now coming up again, however, the majority of our contracts allow us to increase prices. Like, this is only contract individual, but most of the contracts are actually reflecting inflation rates. We still have high inflation rates. That's why there is nothing bad about asking for price increases. However, it's the outcome of negotiation. It's not well received. Certainly, some of our customers are trying to sit on a established pricing scheme. However, this is part of my sales department and part of Georg's role to make sure that we are achieving a new price level, which actually represents the support and the services we are providing to our customers.

Regarding your third question, Q1, again, it's way too early to talk about the outcome of Q1, although it's over. I think it wouldn't be super serious to try to actually leak some of the details here. As mentioned, we see tough comps, so we will see meaningful top line decline and therefore again, meaningful pressure very much coming through negative scaling effects. That's why we already brought it up. Certainly, it will not be a disaster, but we will have to live with declining top line and declining bottom line. From there on, we see some nice progression top line as well as bottom line. I hope that answers your question and ready to take next question.

Oliver Reinberg
Head of German Equity Research, Kepler Cheuvreux

Perfect. Thank you, Marcus.

Marcus Wolfinger
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, STRATEC

You're very welcome.

Operator

The next question comes from Fynn Scherzler from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Fynn Scherzler
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. This is Fynn Scherzler from Deutsche Bank, on behalf of Jan Koch. I have two questions, please. First, could you provide some detail on the expected magnitude of the earnings shortfall in the veterinary business for the group? What makes you confident you can improve the margin again going forward? How long does this take? Secondly, can you provide some detail on the magnitude of the countermeasures you expect? I understand you will give some details on the cost savings in 2Q, Could you provide a ballpark range today? Are we speaking of around 20 basis points, or is this north of 100 basis points? Thank you very much.

Marcus Wolfinger
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, STRATEC

Yeah. Thanks, Fynn, for bringing that up. Actually, I mentioned that some of the margin decline of our previous Diatron business unit, now being part of the one segment reporting scheme, is related to a next generation product for our veterinary business. We were facing a situation where technologically expectations of the market made it necessary to go into a new product. Certainly, there is ongoing competition, first of all in the end market, but certainly, as a provider to instrumentation in hematological chemistry to that customer. In order to really save that business, we were forced to start the development of the next generation system and to accept a certain margin concession. We worked that down to. Certainly in the first instance, super important to get that new technology to the market.

Certainly there is a phase of declining revenues with the previous generation product and growing revenues with the new project or the new product for that customer, which it makes the margin declining, like in an assessment of the customer with one product with strong margins, one product with lower margin, ramping down the product with the higher margin, ramping up the product with the lower margin. That for that particular customer, the margin might erode slightly away. Now there is already some amendments on its way in terms of development activities to tackle cost of goods. On the one hand side, certainly parts of the price concessions we had to enter into initially are actually eroding away.

This allows for some price increases and certainly going through a learning curve, in terms of manufacturing times and additionally increasing volumes which get just into economies of scale with the new product are all positive contributors to the margin. At this point, we believe that we might get back to previous margin levels at the end of a 24-month period after the market launch, which means at the end of 2024. All those measures are actually already on its way. That's why at this point, certainly the margin for Diatron will continue to get into the areas of the fourth step, but we are very positive that we might bottom out as soon as the first of those measures mentioned are starting to show effectiveness. Countermeasures.

Actually, we talked about an earnings improvement program, which are actually the majority, and I already mentioned that the biggest order of magnitude is actually to be seen as a combination of output prices as compared to input prices. Certainly, as mentioned, accelerating the transition of the product portfolio from those products which made nice progress during COVID-19 with a nice margin profile to the new product with a nice margin profile, which took us a little bit longer. Again, this is not something which should happen as a surprise. I mentioned we already talked about our product pipeline and the contributors of the product pipeline towards the margin pro...

The margin profile and margin progress over the course of 2023 and 2024, as well as the steeper than expected declining rates we saw with some of our molecular products after COVID-19. Again, I would like to mention that there is this decoupling of operational development with forecasts and demand coming from the market at this moment in time, as compared to a strong development pipeline, which will help us to bring those new products. I'm really talking about development pipelines, so those things already contracted, which will have either been brought to the market recently or will be brought to the market in the next quarters, as well as we call that deal pipeline.

Those projects we are in an advanced level of contract negotiations or where we perform consulting work or feasibility work or specification work, or re-work on product requirements together with our customers, which have to be pushed over the finish line. Certainly be pushed over the finish line, but which will help to continue to fill our development pipeline as well. Hope that answers your question.

Fynn Scherzler
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yes, thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Alexander Galitsa from HAIB. Please go ahead.

Alexander Galitsa
Equity Research Analyst, Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe Privatbank AG

Thank you for taking the question. I'd like to first maybe put the Q1 into sort of broader context and then to understand how much visibility you really have on the rest of the year. To my understanding, Q1 should be also the quarter where you benefit from spillover from Q4. I think you were expecting to reach the upper end of the guidance. We came out at the lower end, so there was a quite decent chunk of revenue that you should be realizing in Q1, yet you expect sales to decline significantly. Understandably, your customers have provided you with lower customer, lower forecasts. I'm just wondering in how far so that this lower forecast affecting mostly then Q1, and maybe you could talk to the visibility you then have, for the rest of the year to really grow, I guess in excess of 15% year-on-year?

Marcus Wolfinger
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, STRATEC

Yeah. Thank you. Well, actually first of all, some of the order backlog we have seen in 2022 was already worked down in in and was part of the developments in the last quarter of 2022. Certainly some of our customers already took advantage of the situation to reduce their inventory levels and certainly as a company living from manufacturing, it is important for us to kind of level manufacturing activities, you know, just for the sake of generating revenues in a Q4 or in a particular Q1, and then dropping from the demand to zero just because some of our customers would have been obliged to take a number of instruments in a particular quarter.

We certainly are in continuous discussions with our customers in order to make sure that we are able to level manufacturing across quarters. If the demand is declining and our customers have already inventory levels, we are certainly not trying to push instruments into the warehouses of our customers, but rather trying to level manufacturing over the quarter. Certainly, you know, we had some new product launches where it is quite natural to, like, ship 20 units in the quarter of the launch and then ship 50 units in the subsequent quarter and 100 units in that quarter thereafter. That's actually all on track. I mentioned we have collected updated forecasts from our customers.

With a degree of binding, we have transferred some of our customers, particularly as a learning experience, into a more order-based system rather than a forecast-based system for 2023 or are about to establish those measures. We went through our full budget and actually literally did a new, let me call it forecasting cycle, although the means and measures to establish that was more or less a renewed budgeting cycle, and we fully went through that with updated information. On the other side, I believe that the forecasts which have been provided by our customers in the last two quarters of 2022, were certainly still heavy from expectations at the tail end of corona and market behavior expectations.

We definitely see that some of the laboratories are actually reducing capacity levels and are trying to return instruments to our customers, which is leading to declining demands for new customers, obviously. That has been covered in our new forecast. Again, declining demands, in some cases actually very small demands. On the other side, progress with some of the instruments which hit the market or are about to hit the market. I think the guidance we have given, and again, on a bottom-up basis, is a very realistic one in terms of bottoming out the current market. From here we might see nice progress for the remainder of the year, particularly for 2024. I cannot get you further details because this would actually mean reporting on a forecast level or on an instrument basis, which is certainly the role of our customers and not our role.

Alexander Galitsa
Equity Research Analyst, Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe Privatbank AG

Fair enough. Briefly on the selling price increases. You mentioned the kitchen sinking on the part of your customers. Do you think this could indicate that they are sort of expecting and planning for the situation where they would be more inclined to share the burden of higher input costs with you, or you wouldn't read it like that?

Marcus Wolfinger
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, STRATEC

Yeah, you know, obviously, and I mentioned the equation before that they certainly have agreements with their customers as well. They will certainly try to establish price increases in running contracts with their customers as well, which is, like, the same degree of complexity we are facing with our customers. This is not super well perceived, I must admit. On the other side, this is a situation where we have to undertake this shared burden approach that, like, we can certainly not cover all price increases, whereas we are not expecting our customers to cover all price increases. That's why this will certainly end up as a compromise. I mean, I'm 100% convinced that our customers already factored in that compromise.

Alexander Galitsa
Equity Research Analyst, Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe Privatbank AG

Thank you.

Marcus Wolfinger
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, STRATEC

You're welcome.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time, and I hand back to Marcus Wolfinger for closing comments.

Marcus Wolfinger
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, STRATEC

Yeah. Thank you very much, Francie. Thanks everybody in the line. This actually concludes our fiscal year 2022 conference call. Thank you very much for participating, and thanks very much for those excellent questions. If there are any follow-up questions, do not hesitate to call or email our IR department. Thank you very much for your contribution. Have a good day. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you very much for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.

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