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Earnings Call: Q3 2024

Nov 7, 2024

Thomas Dippold
CFO, SGL Carbon

Compared to last year. And this is due to the fact that our semiconductor and LED business grows by 4% only, automotive is 3%, and all the other business lines that we have in Graphite Solutions are declining. This is thanks to the overall economic development that we see in the world in general, in Europe maybe in particular, and in Germany very especially. And you also see when you follow us over the quarters at our analyst calls that our silicon carbide business and semiconductor business overall is significantly coming down and even went negative in Q3. However, we still, thanks to the product mix effects, maintain a very positive EBITDA development in this business unit. We reached 104.3, sorry for that, EUR 104.3 million EBITDA pre, which is almost 5% up compared to last year.

This is thanks to some product mix effects that we see in there. Our margin in Graphite Solutions goes up and now reaches some super healthy 25.3%. This is almost 1.5% up compared to last year. Process Tech so far is a continuous success story. We now reach 106.2 million EUR in the top line in sales, which is 11% up compared to last year. Process Tech used to be the smallest business unit that we have. It's now the third biggest or second smallest, either way, you wanna see it, but they overtook Composite Solutions. And I think the development that they show over the last couple of years is quite remarkable on the one hand side in sales, but especially in our profitability. We now reach after the first nine months of 2024, 25.6 million EUR EBITDA pre, which is up 46.3% compared to last year.

There's no special effect. There's no one-off. There's nothing in there. It's just better projects, better service, better margins. The margin after the first nine months of this year reached some very remarkable 24.1%, which is up almost by six full percentage points compared to last year. This is really an outstanding performance. Yes, we see that the order book is still quite full. For the next six to nine months, which is normally the lead time for the projects and the orders, not very much can happen. We don't see any cancellations or anything like that. However, when we look at the order intake, we see a certain slowdown. But we cross a bridge when we get there. When we look at the first nine months, we are very happy with the development that they have.

We didn't foresee that for certain, yeah. On the other hand, when it comes to carbon fiber, slide number six, there we see exactly the opposite. The sales drop and the sluggish development in our business in carbon fiber continues. We are 12.5% down compared to last year. Our sales now reach 157.1 million EUR in the first nine months of this year. We see a decline in almost every carbon fiber market that we serve, be it acrylic fibers for textiles, be it panels, be it every, all the businesses are going down, especially the wind market is continuously weak. This is certainly also affecting our margins because we idle more and more capacity there.

If you have this missing fixed cost absorption and the lower prices thanks to the overcapacities that we see in the market and the low prices that we see from our Chinese competitors, this also affects our bottom line. We now have, after the first three quarters of 2024, an EBITDA pre of -EUR 7.9 million. This is EUR 11 million down compared to last year in the same time range. You also have to bear in mind that in the EBITDA pre, there is the equity result of our joint venture, BSCCB, where we make this carbon ceramic brake disc together with Brembo, and some EUR 11.6 million are in the same time. If you take this out, then our result would be -EUR 19 million.

When this minus 19 was exactly in line with our plan for the year 2024. This was so far in the development for the first nine months of the year exactly what we planned. We knew exactly that this is gonna be a bad year, so this development was not unexpected. However, when we started our budgeting process and we saw the first signs how the new midterm planning might look like, me and my colleagues here had a look at that.

This was the reason why we just came up to you guys at the capital market one or two weeks ago where we informed you via a ad hoc message that, thanks to the updated market expectation for the next year and the years to follow, we had to write off our assets and our value in use by EUR 60 million-EUR 80 million, somewhere in this range. We will do that at year-end when we know exactly how the WACC looks like and how a real midterm planning looks like. But in this range, we will have an impairment, which is, of course, a non-cash effect, but it's certainly affecting our net result and subsequently our equity. However, with the shorter balance sheet and the reduced equity, our equity ratio will still be around 40%.

It's still a very healthy company that you're talking to at the moment. Last but not least, Composite Solutions, this business unit is also using carbon fiber and does some composite materials out of it, mainly for automotive applications and automotive parts. There we see a decline in our top line by 16% compared to last year. We now have EUR 95.8 million in our sales after the first three quarters of this year. Why did the sales drop in double digits compared to last year? Because a project was terminated by a customer who used a different solution for the same battery case that he bought previously from us. And therefore he terminated the contract. This contract was very favorable for us, had a good margin. This is the reason why our sales dropped by 16%.

We still had this project in the first quarter, at least with a certain share. But since second and third quarter, our sales also relatively started to drop quite significantly. And also EBITDA pre is quite affected by a drop in 35%. We now reach 10.7% EBITDA pre in the first nine months of 2024, down from 16.6% in the same time range last year. However, we still reach a EBITDA pre margin of 11.2%, which is for a Tier 1 supplier in automotive. I think it's not so bad. After the first nine months of the year, our balance sheet or other key figures or KPIs that we show here on slide number eight, which are very important for us, is on the one hand side the net result here.

You have to see, I mean, it's not misleading. It's presented in the right way. After nine months, our net result is 32.8 million EUR, compared to 5.3 last year. Last year, we made an impairment of our carbon fiber business at half year with some 44 million. That's already in there. Here in our nine months figures for 2024, the impairment for carbon fiber is not yet in. So at year end, you will see then hopefully also a higher operative net result, but then it's gonna be slightly negative if you take out the impairment that I just talked about. Our free cash flow is positive with 15.5 million EUR after the first nine months of 2024.

However, it came down quite a bit compared to last year, where we reached 35 million EUR at the same point of time. A big chunk of it is the customer down payment that we received at the same time last year. We reached quite substantial higher number of customer down payment for our graphite products compared to this year, and this is the reason why our free cash flow went down by roughly 20 million EUR compared to last year. However, this is positive, and I think it's a very good achievement, because we invest significantly higher amounts than our depreciation level, and last but not least, our net financial debt remains very healthy. It went up by roughly 7 million EUR, but this is thanks to the fact that we invest so much, and this is affecting our overall cash flow.

We still manage our business at a leverage level of 0.7, and our equity ratio at the moment is 43.3%. After the impairment, it will be roughly 40%. Still a very healthy development. Our ROCE reaches 11.1%. I think it's also a very good figure, and we make our capital cost by ourselves. And with that, I would like to hand over to Torsten, who will describe a little bit more what's going on, especially on the semiconductor business and silicon carbide in particular.

Torsten Derr
Head of Semiconductor Business, SGL Carbon

Yes. Thanks very much, Thomas. I have the pleasure to explain to you our semiconductor exposure a little bit. And as Thomas said, our biggest business unit, Graphite Solutions or GS, how we call it, makes up a little bit more than 50% of the total turnover of the company. What you see on this slide is a breakdown of the markets which our biggest business unit, Graphite Solutions, serve. You can see that the semiconductor segment accounts now for almost 50% of the total turnover. If we turn to the right-hand side, you can see that our semiconductor market developed quite nicely. We have here the nine months figures of 2022, 2023, and this year. We were able to grow the business constantly up to now. But you can also see that especially the top bar, which represents silicon carbide, it doubled from 2022 to 2023.

The growth was minor from last year to this year. There is one reason, and the reason is a pure volume effect. Here can you see why everything went down? What we are showing you here is the number of electric vehicles sold by quarter. And it went up pretty nicely. In the year 2023, there was a growth quarter by quarter, and then the sales slumped by 26% in the first quarter of this year. After the first quarter down, which is depicted here, we still observed a growth. But you can see in a nutshell, there are two million sold cars missing every quarter. So in total, we are going to sell 8 to 10 million less cars, compared to this year.

Yeah. And what happens as silicon carbide, the main application with 70-80%, is exactly inverters in electric mobility. Also, the demand for SiC wafers and the demand for SiC chips went down. So, we can say we are losing a year or a little bit more than a year, to come back on the growth trajectory, which we and our customers expected. But we are still positive about the market development. We read quite some market studies. And if you look especially into China, China had very nice growth rates of 35% plus.

And all market surveys say that this growth rate, especially in China, will stay on this level. And, yeah, Germany is an exaggeration to the negative. This will also return to normal. Next slide. What does it mean for us? So, according to the market studies, the BEV market is growing with a CAGR of 24%. For our customers, our customers are the wafer manufacturers which produce SiC wafers or SiC chips.

They suffer currently from inventory because they prepared for a steeper growth rate or more EV cars sold. That means they shift currently from the growth mode to an inventory management, and I can say every region is affected. It's not only a European effect. We have the same conversations currently with customers from China, from the US, and also from Europe. So it's a global effect, and we can say that we expect no growth in the silicon carbide field in the year 2025, so what does it mean for SGL? For us, it's a temporary slowdown, and we serve, I would say, all customers in silicon carbide in the world, and all customers confirmed to us that they stick to their midterm growth plan. They shifted the volume a little back to the outer years of their growth plan.

They are already also in the process to complete their investment. So no investment project I was aware of at our customers was stopped. It was delayed or even completed. What do the customers appreciate about us? We are the undisputed quality leader in this field. And when it comes to high-value chips, they can make better chip quality and better yield with our graphite. We are the only one-stop shop in the market, and we have a nicely distributed production network, which can serve the customers local for local. And this might after the election effect in the US be quite nice because a huge part of our investments went into our Semicon facility in St. Marys, US. So we are prepared for local for local market there. We are protected by good contracts, but almost every of our customers is taking the volumes back.

This was the name of the game in the last three to six months. We agreed on new volume figures with most of our customers. We are going into straight cost management, so we are saving wherever we can. We also delayed some investments. We complete the investments which were started, but we wait for the market to return until we restart other projects. An opportunity which we see, and this is driven especially from China, is the application of SiC chips, which were predominantly going into EV industry in other applications. Right now we see, for example, air conditioning units, they will be equipped also with SiC chips. This is possible because the cost of SiC chips went down by the effect which I described. This makes the SiC technology accessible to other applications.

I want to stress we have not lost a single customer, and we kept at least the share of wallet, which we had at the customers. We even increased the share of wallet due to our strong contract structure, and I talked to many of our customers myself, and they already confirmed, they all confirmed their midterm growth plan. Yeah. Coming to our guidance, we confirm again our guidance for the current year, 2024, and our sales guidance is on prior year level, and we also confirm our EBITDA guidance, and we guided the capital markets at an EBITDA between EUR 160 million and EUR 170 million. We will reach this at the lower end of the corridor, and with this, I would like to conclude my explanations and would like to hand back to Claudia.

Claudia Kellert
Head of Investor Relations, SGL Carbon

Thank you. Yeah, now we can start with the Q&A session. The operator will give you some more technical details to handle the Q&A session.

Operator

We now start the question and answer session. Anyone wish to ask a question may press star followed by one on their telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star followed by two. Anyone with a question may press star one at this time. The first question is from Lars vom Cleff with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Lars Vom Cleff
Equity Analyst, Deutsche Bank AG

Hi, good afternoon. Three, three quick questions if I may. The first one is regarding composite solutions. You indicated on the last call that you're in negotiations of a kind of cancellation fee with your customer. I haven't heard you talk about that, so I assume talk is still ongoing or you have not been successful, correct?

Thomas Dippold
CFO, SGL Carbon

Hi, Lars. These talks are still ongoing. It's, as you can imagine, in times like this, a tough negotiation. I think we have very good arguments on our hand. On the one hand side, we don't wanna spoil the whole relation with that OEM, but these discussions are intense but ongoing. We are very confident that we get a kind of a certain compensation, but these talks are ongoing.

Lars Vom Cleff
Equity Analyst, Deutsche Bank AG

Okay. Perfect, and then thinking about the elephant in the room, I have to ask because your CF division and what to do with it tends to become a very long-term story, the never-ending story, to be honest. Have you given yourself internally a deadline until when you want to reach a conclusion or otherwise think about harsher measures to stop the flow of cash and profitability? You call it elephant in the room, and you are completely right. Yes, we have an internal deadline, but of course we don't disclose it. We will tell you once we have reached that point. But at the moment, these talks are ongoing. We know exactly that selling a business unit which is loss-making. We know all the advantages, what you can do with all this capacities that we have to sell with our quality, which we in principle have.

The thing is only for the markets that we are in at the moment. I think everybody of you knows the situation. But I think we have something to offer, but these talks are ongoing. You know also that carbon fiber is a dual-use product. We have sites in the U.S., U.K., but also in Europe. So it's not an easy-to-sell target. However, I think we are doing our best, but certainly there's a deadline for everything.

Thomas Dippold
CFO, SGL Carbon

Thank you. I guess the background, the question is too early, but after the impairment, thinking about the remaining book value of the division in your balance sheet, you also don't want to share any view with us on whether you find it fairly valued or whether there will be a book loss coming as soon as you find a solution for the division. Lars, I think you gave the answer to yourself. That's, I have to try. Yeah. Okay. Nice try. And well done. Thank you. At least you regarded it as a nice try.

Lars Vom Cleff
Equity Analyst, Deutsche Bank AG

U.S. President Trump, and given your business and your divisions, have you done some calculations on the impact of potential U.S. tariffs that are in the pipeline?

Thomas Dippold
CFO, SGL Carbon

No. Lars, we haven't done a calculation, but we estimated everything on a qualitative background, and as our asset footprint is quite well distributed and we also have done quite a large share of our investments in the U.S., we feel pretty comfortable. Even if there are high tariffs, we can go the local for local way, and right now we calculate the effect a plus, a plus-minus neutral.

Lars Vom Cleff
Equity Analyst, Deutsche Bank AG

Perfect. Thank you very much. I'll go back to the line.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star one on your telephone. The next question is from Andreas Heine. Please go ahead.

Andreas Heine
Stock Analyst, Stifel

I ask only a small one this time. First on process technology. Could you update us how long your order book is and how long your visibility is? I read a comment that there's some softening in your order. But the first question, and maybe an update where you finally will end up with your CapEx budget in 2024 and what, from today's point of view, would say the 2025 budget is. Lastly, on the graphite business, in your splitting sales, you show also battery materials, as a sales component. You closed your R&D lab. Is that something which will then fade over, let's say, the next year, or how do you see? It's not big, but how do you see that part of the Graphite Solutions sales?

Thomas Dippold
CFO, SGL Carbon

Hello, Andreas. First question on process tech. Normally we have a lead time or some overview of our process tech projects for six to nine months. So this year is safe. Also the beginning and the first couple of months in 2025 are also more or less ticked. Sales and service business is and parts and service business, which is not so much a project business that where the project's been awarded, remains a little bit volatile. This is more or less on a day-to-day basis, but given the development that we see, I think this is overall a very good and stabilizing development in our overall business. But six to nine months, as a rule of thumb, we can say this is the lead time and the perspective that we can look ahead, and you're right.

There's a softening in the order intake. This might change when we get new orders. But at the moment, for the last couple of months, we see a slight decline in our order intake. Nothing to worry about at the moment. But we have a close look at that, and we intensify our acquisition and sales efforts to see how much we can get from the market out there. Second question was on our CapEx. We think we target this year, coming closer to the year end, and we are also today on the 7th of November, most likely we'll be around EUR 100 million CapEx, maybe a little bit below that. But that's a target that we see at the moment that we aim for, if we also want to spend our money diligently.

CapEx for next year is something we will guide you when we present you our outlook and our guidance for the year 2025. Then you get our sales, our EBITDA pre, plus also our CapEx budget or a rough guidance on cash flow. But please be a little bit patient for that. We are right in the middle of our midterm planning. We'll present it to the supervisory board in roughly four weeks, and then it gets approved. I can't talk about that prior to that. Mm-hmm. Yeah. And Andreas, you asked something about our GAM business, our graphite anode material business. And we were pretty optimistic some years back as 27 battery projects were in Europe and most all disappeared. And even Northvolt is struggling.

We have the belief that Europe is not the best place to go into graphite and anode material production. We had significant efforts in the development of new graphite types. As our potential customers were dying down, we decided to close down the lab. There's still production running, which we run in Poland. The main business which we have is. It ends at the end of the chain into some Tesla types. This is the largest share of business which we have. We now have two options, and we currently evaluate which way to go. Either we go into a restructuring mode or we continue to run that business flat out. This is limited by technology. We will come up with an answer to this question in the next call, I would say. It's ongoing.

And what you thought was absolutely right. And circumstances and conditions changed dramatically in Europe. And for me, Europe is not the best place to be in that business. And then I get that completely right. So currently you feel very comfortable with the quality and technology that can deliver. But as it is a very dynamic market that might change over the coming years and not having a lab would then anyhow mean that you are phased out. And Andreas, if you look into the pie chart, this is a very, very small business. No, it will not make much in the value of the company. If we discontinue it or double it, yeah, it's very small. I was more talking about the potential I see in that business if you are a European producer.

Operator

The next question is from Sven Sauer with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Sven Sauer
Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes. Hello. Just a quick question on the Composite Solutions segment. After the Q2 results, you stated that you were very happy with the pipeline and that you should compensate for the downturn within the next six months. I was just wondering if something has changed now in Q3 regarding the pipeline of CS. Yeah. Sven, you have maybe heard about the troubles a lot of OEMs are in. And the effect for us is that the customer down payments which we received in the last two, three years, it's much harder for us to get. This is the first change. EV projects, everything which is related to electromobility is delayed. There are not many projects which are really canceled, but the OEMs delay it by six months, 12 months, 18 months.

Thomas Dippold
CFO, SGL Carbon

The pipeline is still as healthy as it was, but it is a little bit delayed. And the return on investments also are longer because we have to finance it upfront with our own money. This is a change which we experienced the last three to four months, but the pipeline is still good in terms of projects. Has this answered your question?

Sven Sauer
Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes. Thank you.

Operator

Oh, okay. Once again, to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone. Yeah. Yulia, you should dial in again.

Claudia Kellert
Head of Investor Relations, SGL Carbon

Do we have additional questions? I could see, oh, I see Andreas Heine again. So. Yes.

Operator

We have a follow-up from Andreas Heine, which is, and please go ahead.

Andreas Heine
Stock Analyst, Stifel

Yeah. I'd like to come down to these down payments. I'm not fully got this. You have on the one hand incoming down payments, and on the other hand you have the deliveries. The net effect of that, how does it look like this year and next year under the circumstances as you see them now? So what does it mean for your free cash flow?

Thomas Dippold
CFO, SGL Carbon

And Andreas, I talked about the down payments of the Composite Solutions business. So automotive, parts. This was what I'm talking about. No, not mixed up with customer down payments from the graphite business. They are coming as contracted. But you're right, and this is normally for the toolings. This is for Composite Solutions where we get this money upfront from our OEMs. Your question, if it is related to silicon carbide, there we have a net effect of plus EUR 20 million in this year, the way we foresee it. We get EUR 20 million more inflow than monies that we return.

Andreas Heine
Stock Analyst, Stifel

Oh, very positive. Good. And how, when does that flip to the other side? And the projection that you said that next year's sales into the semiconductor market will be on the current level. So the run rate right now is some EUR 50 million. So I would then assume that you look for the semiconductor market in the magnitude of EUR 210-220 million next year.

Thomas Dippold
CFO, SGL Carbon

I don't comment on your numbers, but your question I would like to answer. You said, when will this flip? And it will flip next year. You know that the sales are, or not our sales, but the number of customer down payments is significantly declining, compared to the years before. We had roughly 30 something two years ago. We had roughly EUR 100 million last year, and we now have 31 so far in this year.

There's a little bit to come also in Q4. If you net it, it's plus 20. And next year we will see some more down payments. If you're not able to collect more customer down payments than we foresee at the moment. But then will be the time when the capacity's either installed or on the way to be installed. And then hopefully, together with higher sales and higher profits, we're able to pay this down over the years.

Andreas Heine
Stock Analyst, Stifel

Thanks a lot.

Thomas Dippold
CFO, SGL Carbon

My pleasure.

Operator

Seems like there are no further questions at this time.

Claudia Kellert
Head of Investor Relations, SGL Carbon

So I couldn't see questions as well. So, then I can close the call. And thanks for your participation. You will find the presentation as well as the report on our webpage. And if you have additional questions, please contact Jürgen Reck or myself. And once more, thanks and have a nice afternoon. Bye-bye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.

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