Dear ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Schaeffler Group Q3 and nine- month 2024 earnings conference call. As a reminder, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be the opportunity to ask questions. If any participant has difficulties hearing the conference, please press star key followed by zero on your telephone for operator assistance. At our respected customers' request, this conference will be recorded, and replay will be available shortly after the call on the website. May I now hand over to CEO Klaus Rosenfeld, CFO Claus Bauer , and Head of IR Heiko Eber, who will lead you through this conference. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much, Operator. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm very happy to welcome you to our today's call on the financial results of the third quarter 2024. The press release, the presentation, and our nine-month report have been published today at 8:00 A.M. CET on our investor relations homepage. And for sure, we will provide a recording and a transcript of this call on our website afterwards. Now, before we take a look at today's agenda, I'm sure that you have all taken notice of our well-known disclaimer. Looking at the agenda, Klaus Rosenfeld, our CEO, and Claus Bauer, our CFO, have joined the webcast to guide you through the key information in our presentation. Afterwards, both will be available for our Q&A session. And now, without further ado, let me hand over to our CEO, Klaus Rosenfeld.
Thank you, Heiko. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome also from my side. I would like to start immediately after the kind introduction of Heiko on page four of the presentation, where you have the key messages and some of the key numbers. Six key messages: sales Q3 slightly below previous year. The trends that we already outlined in Q2 continued with outperformance in AutoTech, strong, I would even say remarkably strong growth in Vehicle Lifetime Solutions, and market-driven sales decline in Bearings & Industrial Solutions, slightly below EUR 4 billion. Certainly not what we would like to see, but something that I think is an acceptable top-line development margin. Q3 overall, 4.7% impacted by the E-Mobility ramp-ups. VLS continuously strong and BIS disappointing, but hopefully now reaching the trough. On the positive side, Q3 free cash flow, EUR 188 million. Once again, testimony for the strong free cash flow generation.
And we can here clearly say Claus is going to explain that in detail, stronger than previous year, despite the Vitesco integration, despite financing costs. So all in all, when you take these first three messages, an okay quarter, certainly we are on track, but also a quarter that shows there is need for action. And that's key message number four. We announced today Program Forward. For me, the fifth program of self-help measures consisting of three main buckets that we will explain later on. The target here is to achieve a recurring EBIT impact of EUR 290 million per annum that shall be 100% realized in the year 2029. That means more or less every measure fully implemented by 2027, and then the EBIT impact phasing in in 2028 and 2029.
The logic is, as I said, a function of the headwinds in Bearings and Industrial Solutions, the promised headcount-related cost synergies from the Vitesco merger, and on top of this, we have decided, with all what's going on in the global and in particular European automotive industry, to also put additional measures in place to respond to the ongoing transformation and weaknesses, in particular in Europe. Let me also say here upfront, we know how these programs are developed. We have done this again in a constructive dialogue with our Works Council . They know the logic. They are informed about this. All these programs are always as good as they are executed and implemented, and I'm very confident that we are very good and very well positioned to realize these benefits as promised.
Number five, the merger of Vitesco has been successfully completed, and that is something that we are really proud of in time, also in line with budgets and expectations. It's now up to us to push the integration. For sure, the strategic logic is absolutely right. We are believers that e-mobility will come. It's only a question of how and how fast. That trend is, from our point of view, not to be reversed. Numbers are complex. Claus is going to explain this. Until end of the third quarter, still the usual logic with Vitesco consolidated at equity from Q4 onwards, full consolidation. You will see a unique year 2024. 2025 will then be the first year where you have the full divisional setup. We'll come back to that in a moment. Last but not least, we confirm our guidance based on what we know today.
I would like to reiterate our promise that dividend payout ratio should be 40% to 60% for the year 2024. That is unchanged compared to what we said before. Page five has the highlights and lowlights. I will do that rather quickly. On the positive side, strong order intake in e-mobility, EUR 2.4 billion, a large transaction in the U.S. that is, again, a proof point for our investment strategy in the U.S., also a proof point for the fact that we've always said hybrid will play a role in the next years to come. AutoTech book-to-bill ratio, and AutoTech being here, all the automotive business in the existing setup without bearings, 2.0 times Vehicle Lifetime Solutions, continued strong sales growth, continued EBIT margin at a record level. We are really proud of that business.
And when you compare that to competitors, I think we can say we are the leading company in terms of margin and also growth trajectory. Free cash flow, strong. Again, I believe that in these challenging times, free cash flow generation, ladies and gentlemen, is absolutely key as cost and capital discipline. And I think we have shown that in the past, that we are effective in managing these levers. The effective working capital management in the third quarter is once again a point that proves that we mean what we say. On the weak side, market environment is challenging. Lower automotive production, especially in Europe, ongoing weakness in various industrial sectors. All that makes it not easier. I am unhappy with the earnings quality in automotive technologies. Still the old setup, as I said. It's impacted by volumes and also by the e-mobility ramp-ups.
We have our issues there with all what's coming together here. Customers are demanding in a sense that we need to deliver what we promised, and with all what we have on the books, that's a challenge. We will go through some headwind there, but we are on the right track also to deal with the more critical projects, and Bearings and Industrial Solutions, margin levels are below expectations. The call for self-help measures is absolutely necessary. The development is disappointing, and we need to respond and address that. That's why we announced Program Forward. On the next page, you have the structure here. It's a threefold response to different challenges. As I said before, performance in BIS, the promised and already indicated cost synergies that are headcount-related, and then the continuous need to drive and manage the transformation.
You have the different levers there from consolidating footprint, reducing capacities to integrating headquarters. For sure, there is an element in the continuous transformation where we want to continue with the product portfolio alignment that Vitesco started. Think about the torque converter, for example, or where we can do more in terms of best-cost approaches in central functions, nothing else than use of shared service center opportunities. On page seven, the program is a European-focused program with 4,700 gross positions to be reduced in Europe. We have on purpose that we will focus this on Europe. We are not including the U.S. We are not including China. And for sure, within Europe, Germany has the biggest part. If you include the transfers into that calculation, the gross reduction is reduced by 1,000 positions to 3,700.
Just to put that into perspective, that is around 3% of the overall population that we have. Is that a program that is too large or too small? I believe it's exactly the right program now. And what is more important than size is proper execution. We know how to do that. And we announced something today that should be realized predominantly in the years 2025 and 2026. It all works well if you can do it in a socially responsible manner and in good constructive dialogue with Works Council . We are known for that. We are addressing 15 locations in Europe, thereof 10 in Germany. And we will announce in the next weeks to come two closures outside Germany to streamline our footprint. The financial impact is on page eight, ladies and gentlemen. Not too much to say here. EUR 290 million is the target.
And to be fair, that EUR 200 million includes EUR 75 million of already communicated cost synergies. You remember the EUR 600 million, the EUR 75 million that you see on page eight, left-hand side in dark blue is exactly that part. So EUR 250 million on top of the synergies that has nothing to do with Vitesco directly. We'll need for these numbers EUR 580 million restructuring cost. Not everything will go into restructuring provisions. Claus is going to explain that. And also here, if you break that out, EUR 150 million of that is already communicated integration cost under the EUR 650 million. What is important here to note, we expect at the moment that the first positive impact on EBIT will come in the year 2026. 2025 remains to be seen, but it's expected at the moment to be without any major EBIT impact.
Cash flow will take a little bit longer because the restructuring payouts typically come upfront. So in 2027, the new program should also yield positive free cash flow contribution. It's very important not only how big these measures are, but how they're implemented. And there I can say we are experienced. We have done this before numerous times. And I see today that there is on every front that we have looked at today, support from customers, support also internally. And we'll now see that we get all of that on track. Back to the numbers. Page 10 gives you the normal page in terms of sales performance. That's, I think, a nice reflection of what's going on in our markets. You see our auto tech in Q3 - 2.5% for Schaeffler as a whole, except for Americas and except for the smaller Asia-Pacific region.
The main regions, Europe -2.9%, China even -10.8% down. What you also see is the Americas, the only region that grew across all three divisions in their current setup. And if you look at Vehicle Lifetime Solutions, 13.2% growth in that environment, I think, speaks for itself. Superb business that we will continue to grow going forward. Very quickly on the divisions, Claus will give you more. Automotive Technologies, Q3 2024, 2.3% margin, clearly disappointing. However, there is positive momentum on the top line. And I think it's fair to say to deliver something that is more or less flattish over nine months and slightly down in Q3 is not a bad result. We are benefiting from the diversification. Engine transmission systems is a resilient contributor in a generally weaker automotive market. And for sure, the ramp-up of e-mobility will remain challenging.
But in terms of growth opportunity, what we see here, we're definitely very well on track. Page 12 supports what I said before. Strong order intake in Q3, EUR 2.4 billion in e-mobility. One big remarkable transaction here in the U.S. market, a program for a three-in-one beam axle for a prominent customer that is the main driver of the order intake in e-mobility. But also on the chassis side, that is part of, as you know, P&C, also a growth business going forward, a very nice order from a new mobility player in China, Chinese top name for a rear-wheel steering product. So we are definitely fine with our order intake and also the quality of our order book. Vehicle Lifetime Solutions, I've said it already before. Page 13, I can do that very briefly. The numbers speak for themselves. 17% margin in the first nine months, 16% growth.
I don't know what I should say here else other than a superb result that proves that this is a perfect hedge and a very good diversification element of our portfolio where we beat competition, and that has to do, page 14, with the way this business has been set up. It's not what you sometimes hear, just selling some spare parts. It's a solutions business. It's a business that is forward-looking in terms of technology, not only an extension of combustion engine, but clearly the transition to e-mobility is ongoing. What you see on this little table is a little development from the tooling side that we showed at Automechanika, where we won the Frankfurt Innovation Award. It's a repair tool for e-axle repairs where you can basically lift the stator out of the rotor without any damage. That is something that gives us an edge.
Our customers are thrilled by these types of solutions because they help customers to do their business in a more efficient and better way. Bearings and Industrial Solutions, I said it before, disappointing result. Need for self-help. Obvious tactical measures are announced. It's something where we need to continue to be straight and fix the problems. What page 16 tells you is that there is, at least from these indicators that you know over years, order book industrial three months and sales. There is some light at the end of the tunnel. It looks like that we're seeing a situation where order book for the first time since several quarters now cuts the sales line from below, and that's typically an indicator that the situation will stabilize. We are also here okay with certain order wins, but that should not say that we are not focused on the right issues.
The right issues are on the cost side, and they need to be addressed. Capital allocation, last page before I hand over to Claus, is a continuation of what we've done before. CapEx ratio in Q3, 5.7%. Reinvestment rate slightly above one. That's absolutely within the range for the nine-month period, 1.0. We invested so far EUR 648 million. And that is certainly below the plan. Shows you that capital discipline is also part of our toolbox, how to make sure that we get to the results that we promise. With that, I hand over to C laus before I come back for the outlook. Claus.
Thank you very much, Klaus. Ladies and gentlemen, also good morning from my side. I start this out because it's a special financial information call this time in the one-timer. As Klaus already alluded to, this is the last time that we will report Schaeffler standalone.
You know that the merger happened beginning of October, and therefore we have this special situation that you will not be listening to a standalone call of Vitesco. So therefore, I added a few slides to just bridge for you the information gap. It's a few minutes of time, but I think it's important for you to understand this story. Let's start out with sales. Klaus already said it, slight sales decline for exchange-adjusted. On the right side, the divisional aspects Klaus already talked about, and I will obviously then dive into more detail on later slides, and the information here that will not be repeated on detailed slides is the regional setup. You see that we have continuing weakness of sales development in China with a sales decline of 6.2%, but also Europe is now weakening.
That is, I think, the well-understood current market environment in automotive and in the industrial with -2.9%. But on the positive side, the two other regions, especially Americas, show significant sales growth. Americas here with 4.2% in the lead. When we look at gross profit on the next slide, then we see also the good message despite the sales volume challenges. We keep the gross profit margin stable at around 21.8%. And if you look at the bottom right, you see even on a nine-month basis in all three divisions, we were able to improve the margin for the nine-month period over last year, one percentage point in total for the group. But please also be reminded that that also includes the one-time impact of our change in inventory evaluation that we adjusted then in EBIT, but it's still included in gross profit.
But in total, I think from an operational standpoint, with the sales volume and production volume challenges, we are facing a result that can be accepted and satisfactory. But on the next slide, we look at overhead cost. And there you see the topic right now. We are not at the moment flexing our overhead cost according to the sales volumes. Therefore, we have some work in front of us. The Program Forward that Klaus introduced and was also introduced to the public in the morning with a press release is obviously addressing these structural issues. And we cannot be satisfied if we have a sales stagnating level that we increase our overhead expenses year over year by 7.5%. However, just to give you a little bit more color to that, the administration cost, I start from the bottom here, is really driven by the integration cost.
If you take that out, then administration costs are flat year over year, and that is already a good first sign. You know that we are facing significant merit increases for our personnel costs. But currently, we are able, except, of course, the integration cost, to offset that with productivity in these areas. In regard to selling expenses, I explained that in the last quarter already a little bit, and that continues. But it's clear when we have our strongest contributor to sales, and especially now the only division that has sales growth in the third quarter is Vehicle Lifetime Solutions. That's coming with a heavy load of selling expenses, so nothing to worry about here. It's obviously, as you saw in Klaus's charts already, still a very significant EBIT margin that we are gaining there. But from a group standpoint, you have this mixed impact in selling expenses.
So that is explainable. And then R&D, Klaus already alluded to a little bit, but the R&D expenses are higher, especially in our automotive division, and especially relating to e-mobility, where we have significant startups in Schaeffler, in Vitesco as well. But we are talking about Schaeffler standalone here. And these are just now represented in higher R&D quotas for that division. I will obviously talk to the details for the divisions then in the later slides. When we come to EBIT for the group, then again, I will talk to the detail by division in the following slides. But only one comment on this slide is on the fourth bullet point on the right side. And it's the same. It's continuing what I already explained in the last quarter. We have Vitesco in our standalone Schaeffler financials at equity.
That at equity consolidation obviously concerns only our shareholding, Schaeffler AG's shareholding in Vitesco Technologies before the merger. That was 39.8%. So around 40% of the result of the net result of Vitesco Technologies is now absorbed as in the past quarters in the Schaeffler AG standalone financials. And we started also to fully harmonize these numbers with the Schaeffler accounting policy, as I explained in our last call. That is obviously also continuing. The big difference between Vitesco Technologies accounting policies and Schaeffler accounting policies is the treatment of R&D expenses and its reimbursements from customers. And therefore, you have, despite Vitesco Technologies's slightly positive net income, you have an at equity impact at Schaeffler for the quarter for the 39.8% shareholding of -EUR 24 million, as represented in this bullet point. That is around 60 bps of margin that causes. Now, let's dive into the details by division.
We start with automotive technologies. And the first message is strong continuing growth in e-mobility. That's what you would expect because of the startup of significant projects. You see it here with 11.5%, another double-digit growth in this area. Not the biggest number on the page, but obviously significantly contributing to the total picture. And then on the other side, you see the two other business divisions, engine and transmission and chassis systems, with each - 5.8%. And that now is already the reason for some of the margin impacts that's depicted in the waterfall chart on the right side, because these are the mature businesses where we have dedicated capital in our plans, production capital. You know that our vertical integration is very high.
If we have a volume decrease of around 6%, that is obviously then driving fixed cost under absorption in our production capital and therefore a margin impact. If I look at that, that's all included in the first column here, gross profit excluding FX. If I translate that to an EBIT impact, then this is driving around 150 bp s of margin deterioration in this quarter. I can also tell you that we had a very weak July and August, but then a decent, I would almost say, strong recovery then in September into October. So we expect October and November being strong months. Then December, you always have the phenomena in front of you to anticipate what will be the closure days of your customers. But we expect a strong continuation of the volume recovery that we saw in September, now also in October and November.
Outperformance on the left bottom, solid, 210 bp s. And when you look at the regional detail, it's clear that's driven by all regions, but Greater China. Asia-Pacific is, from a volume standpoint, not such a big contributor, but you see solid outperformance in Europe. And Americas, although against a negative market, it's still not increasing our sales in absolute numbers, but it's definitely performing better than the market around us. And the continuing weakness in comparative performance in China, which, as explained in the past, has mainly to do with the Chinese domestics. Our portion there is around 50% and growing of our domestic sales to automotive customers in China, but it's only 50%, if you will. 50% is with the European and Western imports in that market.
Therefore, as we increase our weight with the Chinese OEMs, that underperformance, that relative underperformance should get better and hopefully catch up, and Klaus said it. I would like to obviously spend much more time on this slide, but I think it's much more important to understand also the weaknesses, but Klaus said it all, 13.2% growth, significantly above any of the markets. You see especially Greater China and Asia-Pacific with over 20% sales growth, and now I direct your attention to the pie chart on the bottom right, where you see e-commerce plus 80% in sales, and that is one of the components that drives the sales growth in Greater China and Asia-Pacific.
I think we explained in the past our platform business strategy in these markets, especially China and India, where we have internet platforms to deal with our own aftermarket solutions, but also the solutions of third-party suppliers. Therefore, a big growth engine on the top line. But I give you also a little bit and few going forward. As this business grows further, and it will grow further, there's also a little bit of a margin dilution effect because, as you can imagine, the online business, especially as it relates to third-party sales, is not coming with the same margin than our own independent aftermarket business. I think Klaus said it, 16.4%, very solid and satisfactory EBIT margin. That brings me to Bearings and Industrial Solutions. Klaus said it, -5% foreign exchange adjusted sales development. It's also here detailed down in the regions.
Two comments from my side, Greater China with sales development of - 1.3%. That's a much smaller number than we have seen in the last few quarters. So it seems to reach the trough and stabilize here. You understand, I think, from prior calls that drivers here are the unit volumes and also the unit pricing in that market. You see, but then in Europe with - 12.8% significant sales decrease, which is also depicted in the pie chart, especially in the industrial automation market cluster with - 14.3%. That's definitely the current economic weak point, which, as we have seen in the order intake chart, might also have reached somewhat of a trough. But let's also be careful to interpret the order intake chart here. There's some impact from still very strong order intake for aerospace.
The realization cycle of aerospace is not a quarter, not two quarters, but close to a year, so I think we have to be really patient with that division. With a 4.5% EBIT margin that you see on the waterfall chart on the right side, it's definitely an improvement over our second quarter, and I would say it's about the natural performance level that we can expect at the current volumes and the current market environment, but as Klaus said, that is definitely not satisfactory. And therefore, as you have seen in Klaus's part, we initiated our Program Forward with a significant part dedicated to adjusting the structures and this division to the market environment, not only short term because we might be at a very low point, but also anticipating maybe slower recoveries in the future than we formerly have hoped for. Now, back to the group level.
I think I don't need to talk to these KPIs. They're all indications of what I already said and are also a good indicator why we need a program like Forward to improve on these performance indicators. Free cash flow, Klaus said it already, strong free cash flow, even stronger than last year. That despite the fact that we have higher integration costs and higher financing costs, that is about an increment over last year's Q3 of EUR 30 million to EUR 35 million. If you add that back, then that performance is even more impressive under the current difficult circumstances. The waterfall chart on the right top side clearly explains what Klaus already also said. It's the effective working capital management that supported our free cash flow generation. You see a relatively big other column here in the waterfall chart.
The main portion is actually the at equity consolidation of Vitesco that is going into our EBITDA, but it's not a cash-generating element. So therefore, it has to be corrected here. The leverage ratio is the last Schaeffler standalone page before I then come to the Vitesco standalone. We are at 2.5 times in our leverage ratio, which is clearly higher than we would have anticipated even before full consolidation. I think you understand the impact of at equity versus full consolidation. The first time that we have a full 12-month period fully consolidated with Vitesco, we have the full EBITDA impact from that merger, and then the mathematics normalize. Right now, you have the full debt on the books of Schaeffler, but you do not have any EBITDA contribution other than the relatively small and actually negative impact of the at equity portion.
So therefore, 2.5 clearly technically impacted, but still higher than we have anticipated. If you look at the formula of the leverage ratio, it's clear where it is. It's the rather weak EBIT contribution that we have seen in Q3 of this year, replacing a strong Q3 of last year. And therefore, the last 12 months of EBITDA is suffering and therefore impacting that ratio. The good news is nothing changes in regard to our strong liquidity position with EUR 2.5 billion. And again, that's also a standalone number at this point. We get even stronger together with Vitesco then. So now the novelty in this call, and it's a one-time event because the next quarter we will report a fully consolidated set of financials. Klaus will explain a little bit later how that reporting will be for the Q4 of next year and then especially going forward in 2025.
These are the slides that you are used to from the Vitesco quarterly calls. I just go through the headlines here. The sales for the quarter is lower than last year, but there is an impact of around EUR 200 million in there of the reduction of the non-core sales. These are running as anticipated. We ramped down the non-core sales from around EUR 580 million to around EUR 380 million. Clearly, according to the plan, the electrification sales with EUR 413 million for the quarter is significantly higher than last year, 27%, showing the strong ramp-up and start-up of the projects on the Vitesco side. You see a strong adjusted EBIT of 5.9%.
Now, if you remember the Vitesco normal timing pattern, I would say based on their accounting policies, then you know that the R&D reimbursements based on the accounting policies on the Vitesco side always have been realized immediately in the P&L as a reduction of the R&D expenses. So therefore, an EBIT improvement. And these normally were heavily loaded in Q4 because negotiations with the customers have been taking some time. It was possible that a majority of these reimbursements now already have been realized in Q3. That's the good side of the news. Maybe the counter side of that is that we will not, and we are not expecting a similar recovery ratio in Q4 as Vitesco has shown in the past. So it's an acceleration of R&D reimbursement hitting now Q3 instead of Q4.
Just to give you an amount, that's around EUR 155 million that are positive impacting Q3. Free cash flow, surely a big negative number, but that is also according to our expectations. You remember that Vitesco did adjust its guidance in September based on a significant payment to Continental going back to the separation agreement with them. And that is now the result in numbers, mainly driven by this one-time impact, but not, I would say, something that we expect going forward. And then order intake, also a robust quarter, I would say. Interesting is the order intake in electrification. I think more and more customers are not and have not been separating anymore between Schaeffler and Vitesco already in the third quarter. Obviously, going forward, starting with the fourth quarter, there's no separation possible because it's only the merged entity that exists.
But so therefore, I would see that number almost in combination with the order intake on the Schaeffler side, and it's interesting that in the EUR 1.5 billion here, there's actually also a significant portion in the beam e-axle that Klaus showed where the inverter is coming from Vitesco if you will. First testimony of the industrial logic of this merger. Quickly going through a little bit more detail, but I do that rather quick because I mentioned the most important points on the first slide. On group level, we have a sales decline of -1.9% as used. That is always at actual currencies, not foreign exchange adjusted. The second bullet point tells you that that's almost completely driven by currency impacts, and as I already mentioned, of course, then offsetting the impact of the reduction of the non-core business.
So I think in the current market environment, also a pretty robust message here. Again, last bullet point here also mentions again the reduction of the non-core business. I already told you the numbers in that regard. The division powertrain looks more severe. As you know, the non-core business is all in the division powertrain. So the entire reduction of EUR 200 million in these sales, as we planned, is part of the - 10.8% decline in sales. If we correct that, then you will find that the organic sales development of our core business in that division is in line with the light vehicle production development. And so there's a performance according to the market environment. On the electrification side, the reflection of what I said already on the first page, very strong sales growth in our electrification business. That is part of this division electrification.
As you know from the past, there's other components in there. But I think 27% growth in electrification sales speaks for itself and is reflected in these numbers. The EBIT margin is also visible here. The main impact, as I just mentioned, is the accelerated R&D and reimbursement as compared to prior year numbers. Now, this effect will swing around a little bit in Q4 because last year we had a very strong recovery and reimbursement in Q4 that will not repeat itself now in Q4 of 2024. I hope that closes the information gap for you due to the missing Vitesco standalone call for Q3. And with that, Klaus, back to you.
Yeah. Thank you, Klaus. I continue on page 34 with the last final slides.
Guidance, as I said, confirmed for all metrics on this peculiar combined guidance logic that will change then for 2025. Klaus said it on page 35. The reporting structure will change then from January 1st onwards. We will report four product-oriented divisions in future, plus corporate and other. You see on this page how the four product-oriented divisions are set up. E-mobility, Powertrain and Chassis, Vehicle Lifetime Solutions, Bearings and Industrial Solutions will all have separate business divisions underneath that we manage end-to-end. Sorry. E-mobility is electric drives, controls, mechatronics, and modules. Powertrain and Chassis is engine and transmission system and powertrain solutions. Typically, the pure combustion engine business. Hybrid stays with e-mobility. Chassis is powertrain agnostic.
In Vehicle Lifetime Solutions, you will have four business divisions: repair maintenance solutions, platform business, specialty business, a business that we inherit from Vitesco and then emerging businesses, or let's call them new growth businesses. And in Bearings and Industrial Solutions, you will have underneath the divisions three business divisions: industrial bearings, automotive bearings, and linear motion. That's the new setup, how we manage the portfolio. We will be transparent on the divisional side, and the business division structure is there to show you how we look at the overall portfolio, but we're not going to report full P&Ls or even balance sheet cash flows on business divisional level. Compared to the past, there's one other important change.
The corporate and other column is not, as in the past, a column that at the end of the day is leading to a zero sales and some zero costs, so just an allocation logic. In that corporate and other column, we'll have in future three separate activities. I start with the end here, the so-called end-of-life businesses. This is what we typically call discontinued. That is the famous contract manufacturing that we inherit from Vitesco that is a run-off business. And also some of the businesses of BIS, parts of Melior Motion will be included here as discontinued businesses that should run off in 12 to 18 months. We have today already separate in that other column, but allocated out to the divisions what we call the functional entities with external revenues. This is in particular our special machinery operation, something that is peculiar to Schaeffler. It's Schaeffler Engineering.
These entities have a separate market approach, and in future, we will not commingle that with operating results from the divisions, but leave that separate only for the external revenues and the related benefit from that. And then last but not least, we have decided that certain selected and exclusively defined startup businesses would go there. Three examples. In future, we would have the electrolyzer business for hydrogen in there that we run for quite a while. We would put our battery cell activities that are brand new. It's more a research and development project at the moment, but very promising and would also consolidate in that area everything that has to do with humanoids. Not the full robotics, but humanoids is definitely an area where we feel very well equipped with our high competence in high precision metal sheet forming and everything we do in actuation.
So this is the new setup. This will come in place, as the blue bubble says, 1st of January 2025 as the new setup. That also means that the annual report, ladies and gentlemen, will not have that structure. It will still have the existing structure, whereas you get automotive technology, basically one and two division together. You get three and you get four. And in corporate and other, you will have all the Vitesco impact, Klaus. What makes the annual report an interesting animal? But what is more important is that the way going forward is well structured. You understand what's where. And we'll for sure give you then in the first quarter of 2025, the comparable quarterly figures for the year 2024. Hopefully, that is something that helps you then to get the necessary transparency that you can follow the performance of these businesses.
For sure, for the first time since many years, you will have an EBIT margin and a cash flow development for our e-mobility business. Now, let me conclude with my page 36 before we end up with the next meetings. I just want to conclude some numbers as explained. Certainly solid with a mixed performance across the various businesses and a continued stellar performance from VLS. Program Forward is necessary to address the current challenges. We are well equipped to execute this as promised. Transaction with Vitesco exactly executed according to plan. It's now up to us to force the integration. The hard work begins now with all the necessary things that need to be done. On the outlook, we confirm the guidance. We confirm dividend payout ratio.
We are fully focused on the execution of ramp-ups, balance sheet strength counts, free cash flow generation, and continued cost and capital discipline. With that, I'm at the end of my part again, and I leave the financial calendar and selected key events to Heiko.
Thank you very much. So I guess you have all had the chance to read through the upcoming events. So in the interest of time, I would directly propose to jump into the Q&A.
You want to say one word on the capital markets day?
Oh, yes. Very important. We received a lot of questions on when is the exact timing of our capital markets day. So we can be more precise now. It will take place in the calendar week 38, 2025. So that's next year, middle of September.
And with this, I would hand back over to the operator for the first questions.
Thank you. We will now begin our question and answer session. If you have a question for our speakers, please dial star and one on your telephone keypad now to enter the queue. Once your name has been announced, you can ask a question. If you find your question is answered before it is your turn to speak, you can dial star and two to cancel your question. If you are using speaker equipment today, please lift the handset before making your selection. The first question comes from the line of Akshat Kacker from JPM. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my question, Akshat from JP Morgan. I have three, please, and would appreciate if I could take them one by one. The first one is on your capital allocation priorities.
Just considering the overarching structure initiatives across business lines and the ongoing transformation, obviously, within the automotive sector, what do you think is the optimal structure for the balance sheet going forward? Do today's announcements impact your leverage ratio targets? And is it still feasible to distribute dividends at the higher end of the payout ratio for 2025? That's the first one.
Oh, okay. Let me address it, Klaus. If you want to add, capital allocation strategic logic stays in place. Our reinvestment ratio logic that we successfully apply now since some years. So key investments going forward will go into e-mobility and some of the other growth businesses. And those that are not growing need to also consider reinvestment ratio targets below one. In terms of balance sheet and leverage, for sure, cash generation is absolutely key.
We now triggered a program that will need, as you all know, some investment upfront in the form of restructuring costs, whether they are accrued as reserves or not is a different story, but there will be cash out here that will impact that. Our logic that we have always applied is net income before restructuring cost as a basis for dividend. We want to make sure that we can pay dividend without lending money, and that remains the target. Whether we can achieve the upper end of the ratio remains to be seen. Don't forget, we have also a higher number of shares now, and therefore the overall number is at the moment not ready for communication. But what I can commit is that we very well know how important for a stock like ours a continuous dividend policy is.
Therefore, let's give us a little bit more time to digest what we have at the moment. Then we'll come out with a decent number. Is it possible to do that? Absolutely, because Schaeffler AG, as the main entity that needs to provide the dividend, is in good shape. We have, in any case, enough reserves to also go through a period of headwinds. So continuous dividend payment, a continuous commitment to dividend is absolutely part of our logic going forward. And leverage ratio, yes, should not be distracted by end of September. There, the leverage ratio does not include the EBITDA from Vitesco. If that would be done on a fully consolidated basis, the ratio would go below two. Our target to operate somewhere between one and a quarter to one to three quarters of EBITDA is intact and will not be changed.
That's where we want to go, and that's why free cash flow generation is so important for us.
Thank you. The second question is on automotive technology and specifically the powertrain and chassis business. So one of the main reasons cited for the 2% margin in Q3 is reduced volumes and uncertainty. Could you just elaborate on the negative operating leverage resulting from these low volumes in this business segment at present? And also moving forward, when you think about what you are targeting as a business for decremental once the cost actions planned under Program Forward are implemented, how do you expect these decrementals on low volumes to improve specifically for powertrain and chassis, please?
Yeah. Akshat, this is Klaus.
Again, as I said during my presentation, especially in powertrain and chassis, where we have established production capacity and a high vertical integration on the Schaeffler side, the operating leverage is in both directions significant. Unfortunately, also on the way down, we have had a weak, a very weak quarter, as I also said, especially in July and August, that was counteracted a little bit by a relatively strong September. So the impact, as I said, was in the 1.5% range on EBIT. Now, any volume change to the positive going forward will contribute then positively to what we lost in Q3, and on top of that, with the transformation piece of our Program Forward, we are also adjusting then capacity to our longer-term view in this area, so therefore, volume is an important driver for P&C. We try to manage that. You cannot manage that quarter to quarter.
You have to have a longer-term view and then manage towards the longer-term view. But any volume will then also have the positive effect on that side. Interestingly enough, when we now talk about the combined entity going forward, then the operating leverage, and maybe you have seen that a little bit also in the EBIT development on my Vitesco slides, the operating leverage will decrease because the vertical integration for the powertrain solutions on the Vitesco side is not as high. And therefore, you can obviously flex much quicker with procured cost elements.
Claus, one second, please. We just got notified that some of the participants can't hear us anymore. Can we quickly check with the operator?
I can hear you, and I also have the webcast open. The sound quality in both channels are well.
Very good. Akshat, you heard everything okay?
Thank you. Yeah.
Just the last question on e-mobility, please. Is it possible to quantify the extent of losses anticipated within Schaeffler's e-mobility business for 2024? And how do you foresee these improving in 2025, please? Thank you so much.
Look, we have acquired Vitesco. We're not going to separate out in the future what comes from green and what comes from yellow. Also because we will now use one Schaeffler accounting logic for the two businesses. And that has an important impact. And as you all know, we have always said we refrain as much as possible on the IFRS from capitalization of R&D costs. Vitesco has chosen another way. We'll continue with the Schaeffler way. That's more conservative, and that means that profitability at the beginning of a large project is lower than over the cycle.
And it would be completely against the idea of bringing two companies together to make them stronger together now to say, "This is from there and this is from that." That means you will get one number on the e-mobility from Schaeffler and Vitesco together based on the Schaeffler more conservative accounting logic.
Sure. Completely understood. If I could quickly follow up.
And therefore, forget all the promises of the past. That is history. What we now need is a decent plan going forward. And whatever that means in terms of break-even will come when we give guidance and midterm targets.
All right. Thank you.
You're welcome. And again, don't forget, we are managing this business for a value in a sense that we say businesses need to earn their cost of capital over the cycle, and we manage it for cash flow.
These are the predominant drivers of how we steer these businesses that has always paid off, and that also applies for everything that is now acquired through Vitesco.
The next question comes from the line of Christoph Laskawi from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
The first one is more or less a clarification question on what was said on Vitesco. Could you give us just a rough indication of the like-for-like accounting treatment with Schaeffler? You highlighted R&D capitalization, etc. Where would the adjusted EBIT for Vitesco stand in Q3? And considering what you said in basically the R&D reimbursements being allocated to Q3 this year, should we expect a positive or negative contribution of Vitesco on adjusted EBIT in Q4? The second question would be on AutoTech. Peers of you have highlighted the deteriorating environment in Q4.
Could you share your view on what you're currently seeing in current trading and if you are seeing sequential volume actually versus your numbers being better or worse in Q4? And I know it's pretty early, but just in the absence of positives or benefits from the restructuring measures that you have announced today, thoughts on 25 outside of volume? Is there any other drivers which would be helpful on the margins in AutoTech? And then last question, just from the order book in BIS, you highlighted that A&D obviously was a positive contributor. If you strip that out, did you also see a stabilization in the rest of the business, or was that still slightly down? Thank you.
Again, Christoph, I fully understand your question on the like-for-like accounting, but again, we can only at the moment say we are merging these businesses.
We are merging the accounting standards in a way that there is one for everybody, and in any case, we can't answer that question here out of the top of our head. You can add something in terms of tendency, but again, it's a year of transition at the moment, and we need to, in 2025, when we set guidance, be clearer how it came together, but for today, I think we can't give that number.
Klaus, maybe if you look at just off at page 40 of our backup, then you see the equity accounting. That accounts for 40% of our shareholding, Schaeffler AG's shareholding. So therefore, you can at least get a flavor of what the EBIT would be.
I cannot tell you, as Klaus said, off the top of my head in absolute numbers or percentages, but I could definitely derive it from that chart here. Of course, the OCI impacts are not hitting EBIT, the last column, but the other four adjustment columns, or actually, it starts with the net income, the proportionate net income, and then the three following two, three, and four is the adjustment impact for 40% for the 39.8% shareholding, not 100%. So there you have an indication.
Okay. Would you go Q4 and then the other ones?
Yeah. I mean, Christoph, are you hearing us, or is?
Yeah, yeah. I'm hearing you.
Yeah, yeah. Okay. Then Q4, I mean, I would like to have the crystal ball and definitely would also look at a positive EBIT contribution in Q4 provided by Vitesco. However, it depends on many things. I mentioned one parameter.
That's the R&D reimbursements, which actually will not repeat itself at the same level as Q4. The other impacts are how is the dynamic of the IFRS conversion that we just talked about? When does it, for what projects does it turn around? That will not happen in Q4. So there's continued negative impact applying Schaeffler accounting policies. So in total, I'm not expecting a different Q4 contribution than actually we have seen in Q3. In its components, the obvious component that remains to be seen is then the base performance of Vitesco. And there we have, of course, the expectation that the positive development in e-mobility continue. And that's also carrying our guidance. As you see, we have not adjusted our guidance, and that also is expecting significant contribution of the full consolidation. Current trading.
Your next questions, the restructuring measures that we announced today, obviously, will have very little impact yet on Q4. We are, especially in Bearings and Industrial Solutions, we are continuing with our tactical measures, closing days, flexible work times where possible. That already is happening since Q2, as we reported, and was more successful in Q3 than in Q2. But again, from the current Program Forward, there's not much impact expected currently. That will come, as we have shown, then as a positive net impact starting 2026. And R&D as a positive contributor to your last question. Yeah. I mean, as long as we are not in a balanced state, especially in e-mobility, that means as long as we have to ramp up business, then you will have the impact that your R&D expenses are upfront investments.
There you have the impact of the Schaeffler policy that tends to recognize these R&D upfront investments in the P&L rather than Vitesco, which rather capitalized them and then amortized over the lifetime. So in the ramp-up phase, and we are clearly still in the ramp-up phase over the next few years, I don't think that we can expect R&D as a positive contributor. It will stay at the increased level that we are seeing currently. That answered all your questions, Christoph.
Thank you. I had one also on BIS and the order book ex A&D. If you leave the A&D contribution out that you highlighted as being quite strong, the rest of the order book and the rest of the end markets, did they stabilize as well or still slightly deteriorating?
So I mean, let me clarify. You asked about the bearings and industrial solutions.
Yes, the order book, correct.
Okay. This curve where we now see a positive trend. So first of all, again, that we didn't combine that yet. It's just the industrial order book. There's no automotive bearings part in it. And that is clearly a positive sign. Although, I mean, we are now with the order book slightly above zero, so it's now growing. And as you see, the past six quarters, we significantly decreased our order book. So the base line is now pretty low, and we are starting to not decrease the baseline anymore. So that's the positive sign. But don't interpret now in the steigung. In the shape of the curve, too much optimism. It just slides through the x-axis, as you see.
Now, if we would have to break down this order book even further to see when is an impact really expected from the change of orders, is it a rather quick realization cycle like in the distribution channels? Are distributors restocking, or is it really aerospace-driven? These are the two extremes because aerospace, if you have an order intake today, then you're delivering in nine to 12 months. The realization cycle is much longer. I'm afraid to say that this shape of the curve is much more driven right now by aerospace than by distribution. You will see a rather longer-term realization even of the positive trend. I think you will not see a lot of deterioration anymore, but also not the quick and steep turnaround.
And therefore, I think it's even more important that we are not just talking about tactical measures for this division, but now also structural adjustments. Therefore, Program Forward.
Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Horst Schneider from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you for taking also my questions. I just have got a few follow-up questions. Most of my questions have been answered already. On Vitesco, I understand that you want to stay tight-lipped regarding targets, but just for my understanding, we should better ignore for now all targets that have been communicated by Vitesco before. We still have got this 2026 e-mobility target, for example, in mind. And then regarding this purchase price allocation that you show on page 40, is that something I can just annualize, or does that come quickly down for the years after 2024?
That would be question number one, and then I'll go ahead with the others.
Let me answer the first part of the question. Purchase price allocation experts, it's next to me. We will give targets for the Schaeffler Group, including Vitesco, and as the measurement, as the accounting standards need to be aligned and changed, we're not going to do anything in terms of following up on old targets. That would simply confuse everybody. We need and rightly ask for a new target for Schaeffler AG in the structure that I just mentioned. That will come at the beginning of the year as normal with the full year result and that new setup, and then we will hopefully make sure that these targets are all met.
But it would be overly complicated now to try to do a historic alignment of Vitesco targets, Schaeffler targets, with without accounting logic, with different volumes and all of that. That's not value creative. So we will focus only on the new targets.
Okay.
As it relates to purchase price allocation, it gets a little crazy now. The purchase price allocation will stop with the equity consolidation. We will continue with the book values starting with the full consolidation. So it's crazy because it's only an impact for the equity portion of this year, but it completely stops.
Okay. That sounds not complicated. That's what I'm going to say.
I find it crazy, but it would be easier if it stops at the end of the year because we have this in-between quarter where it's fully consolidated now and makes all the comparisons to next year quarters more difficult.
So it's up to us now to provide you then in the first quarter with proper historical, comparable, fully consolidated data. That makes this whole transaction a little bit challenging for the accounting and reporting colleagues. But we'll get through this, and hopefully, next year at this time, we'll swing to show you that we can overachieve our targets.
Yeah. No, that's great. Thanks for that. That helps. On the leverage ratio again, I remember you were guiding when this whole transaction was announced, basically, in Q4 last year. You were talking that you expect the leverage ratio post-transaction to decline below 1.5 times in 2025. So you said before that you are still going for 1.25 to 1.7 times leverage ratio, but you haven't said by when. So should we still expect that for 2025, or will that be achieved later now?
Well, again, same problem here.
This is our overall logic. Can I give you exactly when we are going to achieve what in this environment where I don't have parallel full consolidation, equity consolidation whatsoever? I can only say our target is that we should run this whole overall group on a solid leverage ratio that circles somewhere around 1.5 times. When I do a back-of-the-envelope calculation that we did when we announced the transaction, say, at the moment, what you have is debt of Schaeffler, debt for the acquisition, no real debt from Vitesco, and then only the EBITDA from us, then that is with a 2.5 times too high. If I would do a pro forma calculation, it clearly points that we'll get below two towards the end of the year.
And I'm optimistic that for 2025, we will cruise in the range somewhere between 1.25 and 1.75 if we exclude the restructuring payout that we have. And then again, it's a function of the free cash flow generation in 2025. But again, don't nail us down at the moment on something for 2025. It's a combination of various factors. And the most important thing will be cash flow contribution next year. How that develops is a function of the overall performance in a year that obviously looks like to be, again, a difficult year, similar like 2024.
Yeah. That's great. Last one that I have is follow-up on the synergies target because I have always the impression that it was calculated in a very conservative way. So can you maybe explain again what's included, what's not, and where's maybe more potential on these synergies?
I mean, if you start a transaction like we did and are brave enough at the beginning of a transaction in October 2023 to indicate synergies, you are well advised not to be overly optimistic. The EUR 600 million is clearly driven by that logic. What I can say today is that we definitely confirm the 600. I already said when we presented now the impact from Forward that EUR 75 million of that is part of the chart with Forward. So there is EUR 200 million something on top. Will we be more successful than the 600? Remains to be seen. At the moment, that's the number we think that we are able to achieve. If there are more potential, that's a function of how fast the e-mobility is developing. That's where the main revenue potential sits.
But it's also a function of how good we do our job on the cost side, also on the non-HR-related cost elements. But for the time being, we'll remain at 600. And there, I'm confident that we will be able to deliver that in time.
Okay. That's right. Thank you so much.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from the line of Marc-René Tonn from Warburg Research. Please go ahead. Mr. Tonn, your line is open. You can speak now.
Sorry, sorry. I was just muted. Sorry, sorry for that. Yeah, thank you for taking my questions. First one would be on China and the underperformance we have seen probably reflecting, as you mentioned, still your dependency on more of the German OEMs or European OEMs.
From your order book, and you mentioned that you had been successful in the past in gaining business with, let's say, local players as well. Could you give us some indication on when you would, let's say, expect, let's say, your development in China more aligned with the market overall when this may happen in the future? That would be the first question. Second question, looking at the Program Forward and the building blocks, I think probably the synergies with Vitesco, very much SG&A-driven cost savings. Could you give us some kind of split for what you expect at automotive technologies and Bearings and Industrial Solutions on how we should think about the split in savings between gross profit-related, so more, let's say, direct cost and indirect cost in SG&A? That would also be helpful.
The third question, I think probably a very tricky one, but when we look at the Q3 tax rate, which is probably pretty high, and given the, let's say, importance of the net profit for the dividend estimate for the year, could you give us some indication of what you would expect for the full year here? Should we expect Q4 more, let's say, in a positive result, or is it, let's say, too early to say because there's so many moving parts which will, at the end of the day, define on where you will end up with regard to net income or adjusted net income in that case?
Yeah. Maybe I start with the last question, and you opened the door for me. There's too many moving parts to really make that, but we don't see really the run rate of taxes changing much.
That has also to do with a loss situation in Germany, and therefore, I don't see that turning around quickly. And if I then continue with your first question, then it's true. And I think I explained that in the past. And I'm talking about Schaeffler standalone here. That is also important to understand. Quite frankly, I cannot yet say too much about the dynamics for Vitesco, but my gut feel is that actually our exposure to the Chinese as a starting point would be slightly reduced now in the combined entity because the starting point for Vitesco is they are lower in market penetration with the Chinese OEMs. But it's a clear strategic target, and has been a clear strategic target of both companies to increase the penetration in that market segment.
So I think it will be a phasing in and approaching then the Chinese domestic market performance as you see it rather over a handful of quarters, if not two or three years, where you then translate the orders that you have on hand into really deliveries and sales. So it's not a quick win. Of course, if now all of a sudden market share shifts in the Chinese markets also would, yeah, at least slow down or turn around at some point because of new products from European OEMs, especially German OEMs in that market. That also would impact that proximity to the market performance. But if everything would be the same as now, it's a slow phasing in and approaching of the domestic market performance, not a quick one.
Will you do the taxes? Oh, sorry. Go ahead.
I already did the taxes. Okay. Good.
So in terms of how would the impact from the Program Forward, that's how I understood what you said, Mark, would be allocated to the divisions. You can basically use as an indicator. If you take the 4,700 gross reduction and say that is about 54% related to Bearings and Industrial, you can also from there basically say a little bit more than 50% of the benefit would go to Bearings and Industrial Solutions. That also means the rest then splits somehow between E-Mobility division and Powertrain and Chassis. And there you can basically say the impact on E-Mobility is probably higher than on Powertrain and Chassis. So I would say the logic is around 50%+ to Bearings and Industrial Solutions.
Of the remaining 50% with all the allocations and what is shifted in between, two-thirds of that number then goes to e-mobility, and the other third goes to powertrain and chassis.
The question was actually thanks for the answer, but the question was a bit more related to the proportion of direct cost savings. So let's say basically on the shop floor versus indirect costs and overhead that you could provide, let's say, split there with regard to the segments at bearings and industrial solutions as well as for e-mobility.
I can't give you that split at the moment. I can say if you look at the three buckets in synergies, it is very much indirect cost related. There is nothing that goes to the plants because Vitesco and Schaeffler is not a merger where we consolidate plants. In BIS, the vast majority is somehow related to capacity.
It is related to consolidation of locations. But again, that split, I can't deliver at the moment. And on the transformation side, it's also both impacting direct operations and also admin. But the actual split, I need to work that out in more detail. Off the top of my head, I would say in those areas, it's probably half-half.
Thank you very much.
You're welcome.
Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraints, please limit yourself to one question. And the next question comes from the line of Oleksiy Soroka from ING Bank. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you for holding a long call and finding the time. Just really follow-ups because obviously, you've answered a lot of questions. Some of the housekeeping things. In terms of charges related to the new program, the headcount reduction program, can you clarify? I know there was the bars on the slide.
What you have in mind in terms of cash charges in 2025 and 2026, if possible? Also, there was a question before, and I didn't quite get an answer. In terms of the current trading environment, how it is performing relative to Q3 and September Q3, how things are going right now? And lastly, just from my understanding, in terms of the current range of the adjusted EBIT margin, whether you are still comfortable or there is an element of uncertainty, it will depend how things will go in Q4.
Your first question was a little bit difficult to understand. You said something about China and the program. Program Forward.
No, no, no. Yeah. Sorry, sorry. Let me clarify. The restructuring charges, cash restructuring charges related to the initiative announced this morning.
The cash restructuring charges. Can you go to that page, please? This one.
Yeah.
Just how much it's going to be in 2025 in cash terms.
The absolute number for the cash out for restructuring costs in that year. Again, we have decided not to disclose that number at the moment because that's a function of how fast we are to get the restructuring right. You can basically say that the EUR 500 million that we are putting in as a provision with announcement today will be consumed over, let's say, two and a half years. But how that exactly phases is a function of how fast we are with getting the right contracts with our employees, with finding the right measures. Here at the moment, I mean, that's a rather conservative number. We assume that most of the people will go based on contractual arrangements. But it could well be that we find more people because of natural fluctuation. So that mix is unclear.
Therefore, every number I give you at the moment would be a premature number. We think that we will be able to have all the restructuring payout more or less done by the year 2027. So when you see the free cash flow number in 2027, that is the benefit already overcompensating the last final step of the payout that we need to get the people off board.
Okay. And that's 500.
Does that answer your question?
Yeah. That's good enough. And then 500 is all cash over two and a half years, basically.
Yeah. It says here we said 580, and we will not have everything. And not everything is able to be put as a provision.
So there's a little bit of cash out that comes not out of release of provisions, but by a normal cash out that's typically coming rather upfront at the end of the period.
Okay. All right.
The 500 there at the top is a EUR 500 million provision that we are building. And the delta to the 80 is then payouts that you cannot provision for.
Understood.
Okay. Then the current range of EBIT margin depending on Q4, we said 5% to 8% with this peculiar composite or combined ratio. For sure, Q4 will not be an easy quarter. It's always the same in the car industry. It's a quarter where, at least in Europe, certain time falls off because people are not producing at that time. China is different. But it's always a quarter that is more challenging in this environment with everything that's going on.
I think it's fair to assume or it's better to assume on the conservative side. As we said, we confirm our guidance with all the internal challenges we have. We are confident that we'll end up somewhere between 5% or let's say above 5%.
Understood, and the trading, qualitatively versus September, I think stabilizing and improving, getting worse.
You want to say something about that?
I mean, that's what I thought indicated in my presentation. We had a very weak July and August. September was strong, and we see that continuing into October, and so far, also as far as transparency and visibility goes, also for November.
Understood. Thank you very much.
You're welcome.
Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Heiko Eber for any closing remarks.
Thank you very much.
So first of all, thanks to Klaus and to Claus. I think it's good to see that after the last couple of quarterly releases where we only had a handful of questions, so the interest is back. That's why I also thank you to everyone dialing in today for your interest in our company. I know we were not able to answer all your questions, so for sure, we will reach out to you afterwards to catch up. With this having said, thank you very much for your time. Thank you very much for the interest. Big thanks to the team for the preparation. Have a good day and talk to you soon. Goodbye.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attendance. This call has been concluded. You may disconnect.