Welcome to the conference call of Salzgitter AG regarding the results of the first nine months 2024. Please be aware that this conference call will be recorded. I will now hand over to Mr. Gunnar Groebler, CEO, Ms. Birgit Potrafki, CFO, and Mr. Markus Heidler, Head of Investor Relations.
Thank you very much, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for our nine-month report conference. My name is Markus Heidler, Head of Salzgitter AG Investor Relations, and I'm pleased to welcome you to our session. I'm joined today by our CEO, Gunnar Groebler, and our CFO, Birgit Potrafki, who will provide insights into our performance, discuss key strategic and financial developments. The call will begin with two brief introduction statements, after which we will open the line for questions. Please note that this is an analyst call that is transmitted via our website for the sake of transparency. However, we will only answer questions from the financial community. The press is welcome to contact my colleagues from corporate communications after the call.
If you have technical problems during the transmission, please contact my colleagues or send me an email with your questions, which I will then read out. Please also note that today's discussion may include forward-looking statements, which are based on our current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainties. With that, I would like to hand over to you, Gunnar and Birgit.
Thank you very much, Markus. A warm welcome from our side to you all, and thanks for your interest in Salzgitter. And let me perhaps start this call with a short intro statement. I would like to address a topic that you all are most probably very well aware of. We were informed by our shareholder, Günter Papenburg AG, that it considers, together with TSR Recycling GmbH & Co. KG, to submit a voluntary public takeover bid for our company. In the ad hoc notification we issued on the 4th of November, we have said as much about this potential offer as we can at this point. We will, of course, inform the market about further relevant developments in line with our legal obligations, and if an offer should materialize, we will, of course, assess it in detail as we must according to the law.
And in assessing any offer, we will be guided by what's best for our company, for our shareholders, for our employees, and our customers and trusted partners. That goes without saying. That is what we always do. But let me stress again, there is no formal offer on the table yet, so there is nothing more we can say about this right now. And I ask for your understanding that we cannot comment further on this on today's call. And let me be very clear on this: the board and I will not get distracted from what has been and will remain our top priority: executing on our announced strategy in what remains a challenging market environment, as you all know, and we certainly also will discuss through this call. This requires our full attention, and that's what we are here to talk about today.
With that, let me jump into the nine-month presentation. And as you are very well aware of, I would like to start with health and safety. You might recall from the half-year report that we have seen that the overall trend on occupational safety is still intact. We have seen a challenge in year 2023. However, we have been able to stop that trend in 2024. Still, challenges ahead of us. We're not where we want to be at zero accidents, but we're improving the situation with a lot of measures that are specifically directed to the different businesses. So all in all, I would say positive stabilization and development, but still a long way to go, not only for our employees but also for temporary workers that work on our side. With that, let's move on to the political situation.
We all have seen a very sort of eventful last week, starting with the elections in the U.S. I think what is positive is that we have a clear decision by the voters in the U.S. on who will be next president, and now it is up to us to sort of evaluate what this would mean and will mean from a geostrategic but also economic perspective. It's good to hear and to understand that both the German government but also the Brussels authorities are having a very close look at it and also engaging already with the respective people in the U.S. to better understand what this will mean economically. But perhaps too early to have a final conclusion on that yet. The second event in last week was certainly also the turmoil on the German government. Also here, perhaps too early to conclude.
I think very likely we're going to see elections coming up relatively soon. Up until then, the German government is in place and is sort of fully committed to deliver on its duties. But let's see sort of what kind of political work will be possible in the current situation. What is important for us is we, as Salzgitter, but also through the different associations, are in close contact both with the Chancellery and the Ministry of Economy to continuously work on the regulatory framework and things that need to be improved: electricity prices, to be named as one of the most prominent ones, but also trade defense measures, which is more on the European side.
So that, perhaps from a political perspective, certainly quite a few things will happen through this week and the weeks to come, and then we will gradually also sort of get a clearer picture and incorporate that into our day-to-day work. Now, zooming in on Salzgitter, of course, we have to have a look at the raw material prices. I think what we have seen both on iron ore and coal is that both are trading around a certain level: iron ore at around $100 per ton, coal at around $200 per ton. But we don't see any sort of breakout both on the increase but also decreasing side. Quite some fluctuation. We see this as there's, next to the physical trade, also more and more paper trade happening there, which leads to more fluctuating prices, but fundamentally around those two rates that I just mentioned.
Hot-rolled coil is now, for a couple of weeks, north of EUR 550 per ton, so one could see this as some kind of floor building on the price side for hot-rolled coil, so first, perhaps a very sort of slight signal of a stabilization in the market. Let's see whether this price holds over the next couple of weeks, but as said, we haven't seen prices dropping below that for a couple of weeks now. Now, looking at the strategic development of Salzgitter, and Birgit will sort of then mirror that with the financial developments. I would like to mention three things today. One is an update on our circularity strategy, a deep dive on hydrogen, and then certainly also some elements of the operational improvements that we are undergoing right now, so circularity, let's focus on Salzgitter.
There have been some discussions publicly on whether all the steel companies will follow through with their plans to decarbonize for Salzgitter. Let me be very clear. We remain absolutely focused on delivering on our project phase I. We are well underway when it comes to the delivery in time, but also in budget, and we will be able to serve our customers with green steel or CO2-reduced steel as of 2026, so full focus on that, and full focus also on the surrounding that we need to sort of get our framework right for the circularity strategy. Here, one element is, of course, hydrogen. Two news on that one. One is that the hydrogen backbone, the German hydrogen backbone, has finally been decided.
So we now have a clear picture on where pipelines will be built and when they will be built and what the commercial model of this backbone is, which is good for us as now we know Salzgitter will be connected to that so-called start grid in 2029. And also good news is that the gas transporting companies like GASCADE, etc., have also announced that works in laying new pipelines will start already in 2025. So also here, a clear signal that we are moving ahead. When it comes to our own hydrogen supply, you are well aware that we have engaged in bilateral discussions with suppliers, and we have come to pre-agreements on hydrogen supply. On top of that, we have launched a tender for hydrogen supply some eight to 10 weeks ago. This tender has been very well received in the market.
We have gotten more than 100 interested parties within less than two days. We're now in the process of analyzing those interests and basically putting together a list of parties that are interesting to us in terms of their ability to deliver hydrogen to Salzgitter, but also sort of putting together a certain HPA portfolio from a risk mitigation perspective, like we do on the electricity side with the PPA portfolio. Last element, operational improvements. You are aware of that as part of the strategy, we have launched a portfolio management program. We have been much more active on portfolio management, and I'm very happy to also announce here that the MST sale is now in the closing. We're almost done with the closing. We're talking about a cash position of roughly EUR 130 million, cash in, which is very good news.
And we shouldn't forget that this divestment is the largest divestment Salzgitter Group has done over a couple of years. So also a major step forward in shaping our portfolio towards more circularity. On top of that, of course, we are continuously monitoring our portfolio and market opportunities. But also, let me take that question head-on. There are no news on our participation in Aurubis. There are no news on KHS. We're happy with both participation, both companies in their respective development and how they also contribute to our result. And Birgit will talk you through those numbers as well. On Performance 2026 program is well underway when it comes to the identified EUR 250 million bottom line improvements. We will top that up with another EUR 250 million also here. Birgit will talk you through. Same on the structural adjustments.
You have seen in our press release that we are talking structural adjustments with Works Council and are well underway also here to deliver even more on the financial robustness and resilience for the company. All in all, we are looking at a still very difficult market environment. We are looking also at a bit of a blurry picture when it comes to the regulatory framework in Germany and in Europe. However, what we can influence is sort of our performance, our clear focus on delivering on the strategy, our clear focus on the financial numbers. And this is what management, the entire management team and us as board are doing. And I believe also doing well, especially when you look at the operational performance in Q3. And with that, I would stop here and hand over to you, Birgit, to walk us through the financials, please.
Yes, thank you.
Thank you, Gunnar, and to all guests in the line. Warm welcome also from me. Thanks for joining us today. So the first nine months this year were characterized by really tough headwinds, especially in the steel-related business units who are mainly suffering, as Gunnar laid out, from low prices and in the steel processing unit also from low quantities in addition to the low prices. So that was really giving us some strong times, some heavy times. And luckily, on the other side, not luckily, we are a diverse company. We are profiting from a very strong technology division as well as from our investments in Aurubis. And these two had a disburdening effect. And bringing it all together, we were able to organize a slightly small positive pre-tax profit from operations. And this was possible because we, as Gunnar said, one, followed up our Performance 2026 program.
In parallel, we followed up an additional program focusing on safeguarding cash and on limiting cash outflow. That had and still has a very high priority in our daily business. This also was contributing to the small positive profit operational overall. What are we doing here? We are doing things such as postponing investments, reducing maintenance, and in some areas, doing short-time work, and of course, also working on our inventories. Then we had some one-time effects that brought our result overall to the negative area of - EUR 140 million around. These effects were one-time write-offs in the steel processing area. EUR 20 million of that EUR 150 million we did already some weeks and months ago on the MST that we just now sold. Another one is a write-down on the Mannesmann Precision Tubes.
Here we wrote down around EUR 130 million. This is a complete write-off. This means no further write-offs on this group to be expected. We did that because we wanted to unburden ourselves from the legacy and also because we have, yeah, we see adjustments in the environment here in the customer segment. Of course, this write-off at the Mannesmann Precision Tubes Group will be followed also by restructuring activities to make sure that the entity will be set up strong for the future. As Gunnar mentioned, we are also following another restructuring project, which we are right now discussing with our colleagues from the unions. This is about our trade unit and especially our stockholding trade unit.
So we will not disclose too many details today concerning cash and amount of employees because it's good history and trustful relationships with our unions to first get aligned amongst each other before we go public with this. But be assured, this is of highest interest to us to work on these three pillars. First pillar, again, Performance 2026. And as Gunnar has mentioned, we are right now working on it to even double the amount and to prolong it on the timeline so that we will have more contributions from that. We are concentrating, as I said, on the cash safeguarding measures that we need to do because the economy is weak and we are busy with restructuring. So all of this is meant to make us resilient and to ensure our performance now and also in future.
And with this, we are very happy to take your questions.
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please use the raise hand icon on the button bar in the front end. When it's your turn, I will announce your name and you will see an activation notification in Webex. If you wish to withdraw your question, click again on the hand icon. Participants who have dialed in via telephone should press the star three on the keypad and wait for further instructions. All right. We are prepared to take the first question. Bastian Synagowitz, may we ask your question, please?
Bastian, you are still on mute?
Sorry, can you hear me now?
Yeah.
Yes.
Perfect. Hey, good morning all. Thanks for taking my question.
I've got a couple and maybe starting off with processing, which seems to be the area which probably fell most significantly behind expectations overall, probably also relative to where we were maybe a year ago. So I'm wondering, is there anything which makes you confident to be improving your performance back to levels where you can at least stop the cash drain on an entity level next year or beyond that? That is my first question.
Well, yeah, I will start, Gunnar, and then you can end. So yeah, we have not yet said anything about what are our expectations for the remaining year and maybe also the start into next year. So we don't see, especially concerning the steel-related sectors, we don't see any sign of recovery in the economy so far, which means that our focus on safeguarding cash will remain of highest interest.
We will continue to really do our utmost to safeguard the cash situation here. In case the economy will not pick up, we will face the same challenges as we do right now. In addition, we are expecting, of course, for the hydrogen network that we will receive the orders in order to provide our pipes for the hydrogen network that was just recently finally released by the German government, so that is a positive sign we can see and where we expect to get orders and to have a positive contribution on our business situation also in steel and also on cash, of course, then. Yeah. Technology, we expect technology to continue also next year to have a very strong contribution as well on EBT as well as on cash as well.
And as Gunnar has mentioned, prices, especially hot-rolled coil prices, to be followed up and hopefully have reached the bottom. And once they will take off, that, of course, would also have a positive impact on our cash situation.
If I may just add to it, Bastian, steel processing, as Birgit mentioned, we are very much looking into MPT and not only sort of writing down, but also really making sure through the restructuring program that there is a positive future for MPT going forward. And on steel processing, we should also then mention plate, which has some positive elements strategically. As you might recall, we have set up plate not only to deliver into pipes, but also wind as well as yellow goods, etc. So we are, and as of next year, also starting in the defense sector.
So also here, I think there is, from a plate perspective, a bigger market than we can address than we had in the past.
Okay, great. Thanks for the color. Then my next question is a follow-up on your restructuring plans. And I guess you mentioned that you'll be tackling mostly trading and MPT at this point. I'm wondering, are there any plans for the other business areas as well? And I know you said you cannot give much guidance on the full spectrum in terms of cash out and maybe a number of employees, but you obviously have this, I think, additional EUR 120 million, which you are basically booking for the fourth quarter. And here, I'm wondering, is this also containing a write-down component, or is this a pure provision and hence already a good reference for what could be a potential cash out? That is my second question.
Yeah. Thank you, Bastian. So the EUR 120 million you are addressing from our latest guidance to the market also are mainly including restructuring costs, as we said, for trading and for MPT with the majority activities right now, until now, being foreseen in the trading area, and that is the main portion that goes into this EUR 120 million with very limited and not so much of a cash effect for this year.
Okay, but when you basically say restructuring costs, it's basically a provision, right? It's not an additional write-down.
No, it's mainly provisions. You're absolutely right. You're absolutely right. Yeah.
Yeah. Okay. Okay. Understood.
And perhaps if I may add, it's focusing on those two units. Of course, when we're looking at all the measures that Birgit laid out, we're looking at the entire company. Yeah. Reducing investments, cash saving, etc. is covering the entire company.
It's not only those two units.
Okay. Understood. And then just coming over to decarbonization, Gunnar, you obviously mentioned that I think there has been obviously progress in terms of the hydrogen grid and network. I think at least that's going ahead now. You mentioned also the business model. And maybe could you go a little bit into detail in terms of what the business model really looks like, how pricing mechanisms are supposed to be working? Any color on that front, that would be great.
You mean on the hydrogen network?
Yeah. And basically, how are you procuring hydrogen? Are you locking in hydrogen at fixed prices? Is that even possible? How does the business model for you work like when you're procuring hydrogen for your steel business?
Well, that's too early to say, honestly, Bastian. As I said, we have now sort of launched this tender.
This tender is on purpose relatively open to really capture all different models that are in the market and then put them next to each other and distill what is best for us. And this is too early to say because we're in the process of really getting those more than 100 different offerings into our system and then decide with whom to continue further. The intention is to, in the end, have a portfolio of different contracts in terms of volume, in terms of length, in terms of counterparty risk. Certainly also, this is at least my expectation as of now in terms of price models because there is no sort of defined price model yet, unlike you have it in electricity. So hence, I think we will need to see what fits our business best.
Understood. Okay. Very clear.
Then lastly, on your financial situation, and I think that was touched upon already in the last call as well, but your net debt to EBITDA is obviously approaching three times. And I guess possibly more even next year just depending obviously on the evolution of your financial profile. I think you confirmed on the last call that there is obviously no hard covenant. But is there a red line which you set for yourselves on your debt levels? And are you currently actively considering any further possible asset sales?
So for the time, first of all, let's start with the situation. We, of course, you can be assured that we are very, very carefully looking at our ratio here. Yeah. We have not set ourselves a very hard limit, to be very clear here.
However, as we are all aware, we will reach a net financial position by the end of this year of almost EUR 1 billion-. We will have a strong spending year for SALCOS next year. And in addition to our average spending that we have to keep the entities running. And this will lead us to come to a net financial position between -EUR 1.5 billion and something below -EUR 2 billion. And of course, major focus for us now is to work on EBITDA and on cash. That is absolutely essential for us. And that is why we are putting so much energy and effort into these three pillars of organizing cost-wise a competitive situation. As I said before, Performance 2026, cash safeguarding measures, and restructuring issues.
Okay. Great. Thank you all. I go back into the queue for the moment. Thank you.
Thank you
Mr. Andrew Jones, may we have your questions, please? Oh, I think he lost his audio connection.
Then we take the next user in the call and who comes in.
Mr. Christian Obst, may we have your question, please?
Of course, a kind of difficult situation, but nevertheless, there's a plan going into the 2030s for a full, more or less decarbonization plan. So what will be the time frame for further decision when it goes into 25? Are you totally focusing on the 2025 reorganization of the group to secure cash, or are you also able and willing to make further decisions when it comes to SALCOS part two and part three? This is the first question.
Thank you, Christian. I think the beauty of SALCOS is that we are fully modular.
We have now taken decision on the first phase, as you're all aware of, and I talked about it. Second phase, third phase is fully flexible, both in terms of timeline, also in terms of equipment. What is clear, we're going to need another electric arc furnace. So that's the minimum decision that we have to take, but there's no need to rush into that decision. So it's a decision on technical elements, on availability of suppliers, but certainly also our financial situation that comes into play. And again, the beauty is we are fully modular, we are flexible, so there's no need to take a decision. If we come to that point that we want and can take a decision, we will, but there's no need to rush here.
Okay. Thank you. You are right that you're currently running the three blast furnaces in your operations.
This is despite the fact that prices are ongoing under pressure. Do you think about reducing the overall capacity by taking out of the blast furnace and maybe supporting prices in certain areas?
So what we are evaluating is the total output of slabs in our group, that is Salzgitter plus HKM. As you rightly say, we are running all three blast furnaces in Salzgitter, which is from a pure economic perspective, more favorable than just running two because you can optimize the point of operation of all three in a better way than just running two and run those harder than what we do right now. So economically, the setup that we have right now is more favorable than any other.
Okay. Thank you. Then your total workforce increased by approximately 500 people when it comes to on a year-on-year basis there.
Is this only related to the SALCOS phase I, or what is the reason behind? And when you are selling MST, how many people will go out of the operations?
Okay. Let me start to answer your question by looking at our operations without MST. So we have the main increase in headcount in our technology division, actually, because we were expanding so much, and especially also internationally. So the majority that we hired was in the technology division. And here, of that amount, the majority outside Germany. And of course, we also hired in the steel processing area here in Salzgitter, as you rightly said, because of SALCOS.
Steel production or processing?
Sorry, steel production. Sorry, I chose my words precisely. As you rightly said, in the steel production area in order or in line with ramping up SALCOS and also in order to get people trained.
And here, we do not do anything wrong because we will lose a lot of colleagues over the course of the next few years due to demography, which means we, in parallel to ramp up SALCOS, have a necessity to get prepared also to that demographic shift that will also have a huge impact on us. And concerning the MST figure, we need to provide you with that figure later on.
Okay. Thank you. And the last one is, again, on technology. So if I read it right, it's an ongoing strong order book, strong order intake. There's no margin pressure. Almost where do you see the main risk maybe going into 2025, despite the fact that you said that the result will be more or less on the 2024 numbers maybe?
As you rightly say, so we have a strong order book, but we also see a normalization in terms of order intake. I think that goes for the entire industry. We have seen a strong increase from last year to this year, and we see a certain normalization both on the order intake but also on order prices. So a bit of pressure there. That, to me, is the largest risk. Operationally, we're well on track. I think the production network that we have put together there globally is working very efficiently. And with that, we should also be able to get in the needed orders at a reasonable and good level. However, given that this is something we cannot influence, to me, this is the largest question mark, if there's any.
Maybe another one, if I may, on the EU framework.
So it seems a little bit like that the EU Commission and all the people around it are not really in a place to decide anything so far. So do you expect some kind of delays for any kind of decision concerning the steel industry? What is your current view on what is happening on the EU side?
Well, as you rightly say, so as we are in this process of questioning all the potential commissioners, there's not that much visible political work ongoing in Brussels.
However, I think what is especially for the steel industry quite important that we have been able to put steel really on the map of the political debate with the EDP coming up with an own paper on European steel industry with quite some discussions on a steel industry meeting with the Commission on high level to address the topics that we need to have in order to be able, as an industry, to perform in Europe. And what I also recognize, both in Brussels but also in Berlin, that there's a very different discussion on trade defense measures than what we have seen a year or 18 months ago. So all in all, I would say there's a slight change in trend how to address trade and how to address the base industry in Europe. So maybe a little bit more. Rather to the positive, rather to the positive.
So maybe a little bit more support going forward.
That's at least what I read when talking to politicians, both in Brussels but also in Berlin. And in Berlin, beyond also the current government.
And do you see also the German steel industry speaking a little bit more with one voice, or are they getting more fragmented because of the pressure from the current economic environment?
Well, of course, the pressure from the current economic environment is tough. But now, me also having taken the helm on the Wirtschaftsvereinigung Stahl, my task, of course, is to keep sort of the voice and the team together. So that's what I'm working on right now. And so far, so good, I would say.
Okay. Thank you very much. And all the best for your future, of course. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Christian.
And we'll jump to the question.
Sorry, excuse me. Before we come to the next questions, we looked up the numbers for the MST group. And here we have around 1,000 colleagues working there now will change over to Cogne.
Okay. Let's take the next question, please.
Andrew Jones, your question, please.
Yes. Yeah. Good. Yeah, we struggle with Webex. Cool. So just a question on the overall strategy around SALCOS. I mean, one thing I've noticed in recent times is we've seen peers of yours like ArcelorMittal still hasn't actually really deployed that much money on DRI in Europe, yeah, especially in Germany. We've seen some of the peripheral countries around Europe introducing plans for DRI production. We've seen something in Libya, in Algeria, places like this.
And at the same time, obviously, the German economy has been super weak, and we still don't have particularly great clarity around future infrastructure to support things like SALCOS. Yes, the hydrogen network announcement's positive, I guess, at the moment, but I guess you said you still don't have clarity of a price. So my question is, are you still convinced that this is the right long-term answer for the company? Because could we not see a scenario where you spend all this money, the balance sheet deteriorates further, and what happens in the longer run is the support mechanisms are not supportive enough? And actually, some of your near what some of the countries around Europe start undercutting on HBI or even on actual steel volumes once you've got this up and running? And do you worry about the actual competitiveness of this thing in the longer term?
Thanks for the question, Andrew. I think let's start from where this whole thinking around SALCOS and the decarbonization came from. It's the CO2 issue, right? The CO2 issue will remain. And the pricing of CO2 will also remain. And any study you get in your hands right now shows a CO2 price north of EUR 100 in the 2030s and the reduction of the free allocation of CO2 certificate. Hence, there's a clear sort of risk to the current business model that we have. So that's the starting point for us having talked about SALCOS, having taken the decision on SALCOS phase I, and that's why we are implementing SALCOS phase I as we speak. Of course, we are following closely what's happening on the DRI HBI market globally.
Given that our DRI facility that we built in Salzgitter will not be able to supply the entire volume that we would need in Salzgitter, we have flexibility to decide either to build a new DRI in Salzgitter or to source HBI from a global market as soon as this market materializes. We have a decision point in the future how to go about this further. The DRI plant in Salzgitter actually gives us a lot of flexibility in the play between HBI and scrap and in the play of what kind of iron ore to use in Salzgitter. Next to just the energy question, I think there's also an operational flexibility that we get through that DRI plant on site, which we deem to be a clear advantage going forward.
We are fully convinced that SALCOS phase I is the right thing to do, and we are also well advanced, so it would be a very difficult decision to stop that project now or, my words, a stupid decision to stop that project now. And it will put us in a position that we will be amongst the first ones, if not the first company, to deliver CO2-reduced steel to our customers. And they are still asking for it. We shouldn't forget that there's still an ask for this product going forward. On hydrogen, yes, we know hydrogen will be delayed, and we don't have a price point yet. But given that the hydrogen backbone will only be available in 2029, so we still have five years to go to really sort of find the right price point and get those HPAs locked in.
So also here, we're not under pressure right now. We can run the DRI facility with natural gas. That already gives us a 60% discount on CO2 emissions. And then we take it from there to then solve the remaining piece and questions on the hydrogen delivery.
Okay.
That's a good question.
It does. And just a second one on the hydrogen network. On the revenue side or any potential contract that could come there, I mean, obviously, we don't have a final tender or anything like that. But can you give us an idea for what the opportunity is there in terms of potential volumes or revenue or EBITDA or something that we could expect to be delivered over the next, whatever it is, like four years from that project? I mean, I'm wondering basically how material that is to the processing business.
Without sort of giving insights into our order book, if you take it from a macro perspective, we're talking roughly 9,000 kilometers of network that needs to be built/redeployed, given that it is partly natural gas or oil pipelines we're talking about. Of those 9,000 kilometers, roughly 4,000 kilometers or 5,000 kilometers are to be built newly. 4,000 kilometers is roughly 200,000 tons of steel for pipes, right, that needs to be built. Then you look at the supply side. If you look at Germany, we are only looking at two suppliers for these kinds of large diameter pipes. If you look at Europe, there's only a third one that could chip in. There is a certain imbalance, just looking at Europe, a certain imbalance of demand for large diameter pipes for hydrogen. We're not talking only about Germany. We're also talking about Belgium.
We're talking about Austria. We're talking about adjacent countries, etc. So there's a supply and there's a demand there that will only be met by three suppliers in Europe. So for us, this is certainly a market that is of huge interest and where we want to participate, and we certainly also will participate in a profitable way.
Okay. That's good.
I need to correct myself. Sorry. I need to correct myself. 4,000 kilometers is 2 million tons. I said 200,000 tons is, of course, 2 million tons.
Yes. 2 million tons. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. And just on the profitability side, I mean, obviously, that business swings around significantly depending on the utilization given the high fixed cost burden of some of those mills. I mean, could you give us any indication about what margins could look like on that sort of high-value-add sort of volume?
Apologies, Andrew, but we're not sort of talking about margins in public.
Yeah. No, no, no. Understood. I'll just ask. Thank you.
Yeah. Thank you.
I will now connect a telephone participant.
Hi, this is Tristan Gresser from BNP Paribas Exane. Can you hear me?
Yes, we can hear you.
All right. Perfect. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on the automotive sector. Can you discuss a little bit the latest trend there? I think you mentioned in your release that you're seeing some stabilization for your precision tube business, but does that also apply for auto sheets, or is that still deteriorating? And also, can you remind us how much you're exposed to annual contracts with automotive and how much of those annual contracts are tied to January negotiations? And if you can talk a little bit on those contract negotiations, they've already started.
What can you tell us in terms of volumes, maybe on price? I think if we look at the spot market at the moment, you could infer that you could see a triple-digit decline in contracts for next year. But is that something that is out of the question for you? So yeah, any color there would be appreciated.
So on the contractual situation, unfortunately, we just started sort of getting into those negotiations with the automotive suppliers. So too early to say. I think color that we can shed is that we have been able, over the last 12, 18 months, we have been able to broaden our customer portfolio on the auto side, adding new customers to the mix. So apparently, the automotive industry sees us as an interesting supplier to them, and we're moving well forward with, as I said, broadening the customer base.
So that perhaps gives you some color. But for the contractual discussion, it's just too early. Negotiations are now ramping up and starting, so no real news on that one there. On the automotive sector in general, if I got you right, you wanted to also get some color on that. Well, of course, we're following closely what's happening in the automotive sector in Europe, especially in Germany. I would put it that way. The discussion we're having or reading about closures is an adjustment of capacity. It's not an adjustment of contractual volumes. So in that sense, also perhaps we should see those news in that light. It's not about declining volume to us. It's about overall production capacity on the automotive side.
And again, with a broader customer portfolio as we are able to build it, we're also diversifying and reducing the risk of a low-performing auto supplier in just one corner. And we should also be aware from a risk perspective that none of our customers, automotive customers, now looking at sheets is above 10% of the overall volume. So we are also here, I think we're well hedged with a broad customer base.
All right. That's really helpful. And could you confirm us or give us a rough percentage of how much of your annual contracts through OEMs represent for your steel production business? Is that 30%, 40%?
We normally try to have a split of 30%, 30%, 30%, 30% annual, 30% half-annual, and 30% quarterly contracts. That's normally the way we try to structure our portfolio.
All right. That's very clear.
And my second question, and I think we discussed it last time as well, but you put that in your remarks today, the Trump risk. When we look at your business and the volumes you export to the U.S., could you remind us at the moment how much volume is that? I think it's really line pipes. But is there also an implication for KHS? So how should we think if, let's say, Trump, well, Trump arrives and put back Section 232 tariffs? What could be the impact on your business?
Yeah. So let me answer take that question. And as you may imagine, of course, this also has a high interest on our side. So how is our exposure concerning our U.S. market? So first of all, we have EUR 500 million revenues done with the U.S., of which the majority is organized by trade division and technology.
This is organized local for locals, so not so much imported. When it comes to importing from Germany to the U.S. or from Europe to the U.S., this is mainly, as you rightly said, coming from the tubes area. And here we talk about EUR 50 million revenues. And these revenues are already hit by tariffs of more than 20%. That is not new here. However, what, of course, is to be followed up very closely is the impact that may occur via our customers, so indirectly. In case our customers would face tariffs they are not facing today, and that would have a major impact on their quantities, then, of course, indirectly, we most likely would also feel that.
Okay. That's clear. Could you give us an example of the indirect impact from customers? Is there one particular end market you have in mind?
For example, if we deliver our steel to OEMs, and OEMs are exporting their cars to the U.S., and they would be hit by import tariffs, and that would have an impact on the production volume at the OEM site in Europe, then we would feel that.
Yep. Yeah. Very clear. And that's really helpful. And my last question is just on Q4 Free Cash Flow guidance. I think in the past, you provided some net debt guidance. I think you just did with above EUR 1 billion. But just wanted to discuss a little bit the moving pieces into Q4. So the sale of MST will get a cash inflow of EUR 125 million, if I'm correct. You mentioned little cash impact from restructuring. How much of a working capital release should we expect in Q4?
Could you give us a sense also on the gross CapEx and the net CapEx for Q4 that would be helpful?
Yeah. When we look at the MST sale, we materialized around EUR 130 million in October. And final closing, of course, and final valuation like year-end closing, we will see whether there will be some minor impact. But so far, MST sale is EUR 131 million. And as I said before, we are putting a lot of energy in working on our cash situation and, of course, also on our working capital. So we want to organize around EUR 200 million coming from our working capital improvement until the end of the year and to be seen whether there will be valuation effects coming also with this along the end of the year.
However, we want to create, and we are busy organizing a major impact coming from working capital on our operating cash flow. And concerning investments, still need to become until the end of the year, between EUR 200 million and EUR 300 million.
Okay. And that's gross or that's net of the government grants you should also receive in Q4?
That's net.
Okay. Perfect. Thank you very much.
I can make the next.
Just to summarize it, you can say that more or less, if you look at our net financial position where we are right now and where it will be at the end of the year, there will be no major shift going on because the investments we will be seeing will be compensated mainly by the working capital effect.
Okay. I connect the next telephone participant.
Dominic OKane at JP Morgan.
Thank you for taking my question. I have a similar question to the previous questions, but relating to EBITDA. So the revised guidance which you provided at the end of October, you're guiding to EUR 275 million-EUR 325 million of EBITDA for the full year. So the interpretation is we should be expecting negative potentially EBITDA in Q4. So I just wanted to ask, are there any special items or one-offs included within that Q4 EBITDA number for Q4? And therefore, is it also reasonable then to expect that steel production will carry a negative EBITDA in Q4? Thank you.
Let me start with the more severe impact on EBITDA coming from the provisions for restructuring that will have an impact on the EBITDA of more than EUR 100 million , yeah, that we cannot see yet in the nine-month figures.
So that definitely will push down the EBITDA for the provision for restructuring coming from that impact. And second, if you look at the steel business, there is a seasonal trend. And the seasonal trend is that the fourth quarter is always the weakest quarter over the course of the year, and the first quarter is always the strongest quarter in the course over the year. So we are hitting now the weakest quarter of the year with Q4, just pure seasonal effect in the steel units. If you look at technology, they are going to have their strongest quarter of the year. So that will compensate a little bit from that. However, we see also from the operational side that it will be challenging from the operational EBITDA perspective, mainly driven by the seasonal impact.
Okay. Thank you. Thanks. Thank you.
Bastian Synagowitz, your question, please. Yeah.
Thanks for taking my follow-up here. So I just wanted to get back on the situation around your major shareholder. And obviously, I appreciate that you're reasonably restricted in terms of what you can say. But just in terms of the internal assessment process, should a firm offer materialize, how far are you particularly bound to the price-to-book ratio of any potential bid? And would you be allowed even to recommend any bid which falls significantly short of a certain price-to-book ratio if that situation was to arise, obviously, with your price-to-book pretty close to 0.2x-0.3x ? We're obviously in a very, I think, special situation where at least the implied balance sheet value is obviously significantly above where your current market cap is. That is my first question.
I appreciate the question. However, I have to refer to my intro statement.
We will not further comment on the current situation here.
Okay. No problem. So maybe just slightly higher level then. I guess given that you are in the middle of a very CapEx-intense energy transition phase, and obviously, your current capital structure also implies a free float which is already less than 40%, how do you generally feel about the merits of being listed versus a privately owned company at this point here? Do you have any preference as a management team? Maybe you can just share at least your view on that topic.
Well, apologies, but same answer here. Our focus is on really sort of getting the operational parameters of this company moving in the right direction to make any shareholder happy that we're going to have.
Okay. Understood. Thank you.
Thank you.
There are no further questions. Okay.
Well, then thank you very much, all of you, for participating. And those who had questions, for raising them. Hope it was helpful input that you got for your own sort of further processing and evaluation. Thanks for the interest in Salzgitter. And as said, we will continue to work hard for improving the performance and improving the situation of the company. And all the rest is not in our hands. Hence, I think we all will observe what's happening and then react to that. Thank you very much for now. And you all have a great remaining day and a good week. Thanks. Bye-bye. Bye-bye.
Bye. Thank you.
Thank you to everyone who participated in this conference. Goodbye.