Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome. Thanks for joining our analyst conference for the fiscal year 2025. I'm here with our CEO, Gunnar Gröbler, our CFO, Birgit Potrafki, who will run you through the presentation. Afterwards, and as always, you've got the opportunity to ask questions. With that, I'd like to hand over to you, Gunnar.
Thank you very much, Markus. Good morning from my side. Welcome to the analyst conference for the full year 2025. Certainly, we also will touch upon 2026 and how we look upon that. We have underlined the headline with back in black, 'cause that is what basically describes 2025, you know. We have had a difficult market environment, continuously difficult market environment, perhaps even slightly worse than 2024. However, we have focused on our internal resilience. We have done our homework, and this is what we're gonna show to you now through this conference, how we have been able to improve our internal performance and resilience to get to this statement back in black.
First of all, I would like to start with a number that went down, which is good, and that's our LTIF, the Lost Time Injury Frequency. We have broken the trend of 2023, 2024, where we had a slight uptick. We're below seven again, and certainly not at the end of our journey here. A clear strategy, as you can see on the bottom of the page, that we follow, starting from leadership and accountability of each and everybody in the company all the way to suppliers and contractors, how we include them into our health and safety work and take a very holistic approach. First signal and first message on that element of health and safety. We're also back online and in the trend that we need.
For sure, much more that is needed and much more to come. Again, trend is broken back on track. We are looking at a time of a lot of uncertainty, and we think everybody is very concerned about what's gonna happen within the next 24 hours. We have done a first assessment on what the impact is, and on the negative side, of course, the uncertainty that you have in the total economy is not good for investments, is not helping a fundamental uptick that we have seen in the markets for steel. The longer this conflict takes, the more pressure we're certainly gonna see on the global economy, including Europe.
Even though Europe might not be so much impacted as other regions like Asia, still we're gonna observe that also in Europe. Cost increase is already something that we see. Everybody sees once you get to the gas station. Of course, we see it as well. Freight rates for bulk cargo has gone up, so which is important for our iron ore and coal transports. Even though more than 50% of our iron ore comes from Europe, still there's a cost effect that we see. Same thing on the outbound logistics, trucks going to our customers. Certainly something we're gonna have to discuss, and we started that dialogue to have to discuss with our customers 'cause it's pretty clear that the steel industry cannot carry those costs all alone.
We will have to find common ground and common solutions here. The longer it takes, we're gonna see certainly also more macro trends and macro influence on inflation, but also on the monetary policy, globally, so that certainly will also affect us. On the positive side, though, we have a Euro single market that is functioning. We have an underlying stable demand coming out of Europe, and given that Europe is our core home turf in terms of customers, that's certainly something that will help us through the next period. On top of that, as I said, other regions are hit potentially harder than Europe is when it comes to energy demand and energy cost.
Those importers into Europe certainly will also have a different cost base, so higher prices for imports and higher level of uncertainty also, given the distortions we see on logistical chains all over right now. Last but not least, you have the picture of the Persian Gulf there. Most of the DRI projects that are ongoing right now are located in the Persian Gulf, so they are long-term also hit by any sort of distortion that we're gonna see on the Strait of Hormuz. With our DRI on site here in Salzgitter, we have de-risked in that aspect our future steel production. De-risking is perhaps also the wording that we're gonna use when we're talking about strategy.
We have been following through with our strategy also in 2025 and further de-risk the company, both internally but also as asset through the shift from CO2-intensive energy carriers to low CO2 steel production also de-risked from that geostrategic angle. On the performance side, Birgit will go through the details later in your presentation, Birgit. We have been able to do restructurings where necessary, mentioning trading here, where we went through a deep restructuring in the European trading business, cutting product lines, cutting sort of customer groups, cutting jobs, ultimately also people. But bringing trading back to black already in 2025. A successful restructuring that we have done there. Same goes for steel processing and Mannesmann Precision Tubes.
We did close our site in Helmond. We halved our size in a site in Mexico. Also here going through restructuring to adjust to market conditions as we see them also going forward. P28 performance, our performance program has exceeded our ambition, and Birgit will talk you through that in detail. We have also managed to continue our portfolio management efforts. We have sold our shoe machinery factory, DESMA, in 2025, and we are continuing to review the portfolio. Not only in divestments, but also in acquisitions. Latest example here is the acquisition of Thyrolf & Uhle, prepared in 2025 and then executed early 2026, which enables us to get a stronger foothold on the defense side. I will walk you through that in a sec.
Transformation, of course, is a lot around SALCOS phase one. Just to be very clear, there's no intention whatsoever to postpone SALCOS phase one. We're gonna go live with that summer next year. That is well underway. We are well advanced when it comes to construction. We are now sort of bringing more and more equipment into all the buildings that have been built. We are also in a transition phase from a pure construction site into also the market phase, where next to the construction, we also intensify the dialogue with the customers and they intensify the dialogue with us to then get to sign contracts on green steel. You might recall that we had first projects already in 2025 using our site in Peine for the slabs.
We have proven that Salzgitter can deliver green steel and can deliver green steel products, and now we're in the discussions to sort of further, you know, take it one step further with ramping up SALCOS then on site here. What helped clearly is that we got the LESS certification, the Low Emission Steel Standard is established as a European standard by now, and we have gotten certificates not only for Salzgitter and Peine, but also for downstream activities like Ilsenburg and Mühlheim. That's also well underway. Last but not least, it's not only our transition and our transformation, it's also supporting transformation outside, supporting transformation, especially on the energy side. We're delivering pipes for the hydrogen backbone, both in Germany but also in Europe.
Also here we are supporting that transformation in other parts of the European industry as well. Customer focus has been core element of the strategy and remains core element of the strategy. Let me start with defense. We have, as said, acquired Thyrolf & Uhle together with our company Universal Eisen und Stahl. They joined forces now to be able also not only to deliver plate steel to our customers, but also already components, so that for system integrator we can actually be, and we are, a very good sort of supplier. this move has been highly appreciated by our customers that we are really sort of further integrating capacity on the construction side as well as delivering pure plate as we do from Ilsenburg.
Infrastructure, you all know the infrastructure package that the German government has put forward. We expect that now to hit the road second half of 2026, but then full value in 2027. Energy projects I mentioned already with the hydrogen backbone and other projects around the globe that we can serve with pipelines and other material. Last but not least, let me have a short look also on our technology business. KHS has again performed very well, and especially with the product Plasmax. We are well underway with a large contract that the company signed last year and also implementing that in other parts of the world.
KHS has a strong foothold and really a good performance in 2025 and good order intake that carries us through 2026. Pursuing our vision, it's a clear strategy and we are sticking to the strategy and it shows that even in turbulent times like we have it now, this strategy is resilient and helps us to really navigate through and prioritize where the focus should be. I think we have delivered on that in 2025 and continue in 2026. Looking at SALCOS, as said, we are preparing for commissioning. It is working as planned. You see the picture of the direct reduction facility at the final height of 140 meters. You can see it from outside the site far away.
It's a new skyline that we have created here in Salzgitter. Electric arc furnace construction is well underway, so is the electrolyzer. I think we're gonna move in the stacks now in Q2. Also here, on time and in full swing. That leaves us confident to really have a commissioning over summer 2027, first half of 2027, and then be able to deliver green steel to the market and be the first transformed integrated steel mill in Europe that will actually go that step at that scale. What helps is the modularity that we have with SALCOS, so we can adapt to the current situation, both from a customer side, from the financing perspective, but also from the regulatory perspective and the market.
We have taken decision in 2025 to postpone SALCOS phase II to 2029, and we will then look into that constantly where when is the right moment in time, when do we feel sufficiently comfortable and confident that the next electric arc furnace in Salzgitter will hit the market at a good time. Without a doubt, we will build the second electric arc furnace on site, so we will go all the way when it comes to the transformation. Just the point in time is something that where we have flexibility through the modular approach, and we will use that, of course.
Also coming back to SALCOS phase one, important to note, we have been successful in 2025 to negotiate both with our colleagues in Berlin, but also with the federal state of Lower Saxony and the colleagues in Brussels to get the last tranche of the funding, another EUR 322 million that have been approved, so that we're now looking at a total funding of EUR 1.3 billion for SALCOS. Coming from EUR 1 billion to EUR 1.322 billion, which certainly supports the overall project. Also as some of you have already mentioned to us, the cost increase that we have seen on SALCOS from roughly 2.5, that's how we set it to now 2.7.
We are closing the end of construction, hence we are getting a bit more sharp, but that is certainly what we see. Hence the additional funding exceeds the additional cost. It's a positive impact on the project as such. We get a lot of questions on HKM as the second steel mill that we operate for slabs. We have taken a decision to take responsibility for HKM and have made an offer to thyssenkrupp Steel and Vallourec to buy their shares, and then take full ownership of HKM and transform HKM into a one electric arc furnace steel mill as of 2029-2030. Why do we do that? 'Cause there's an industrial logic for us.
There's an industrial logic from an integrated value chain, including HKM, which already today delivers material into Salzgitter. There's a clear security aspect when it comes to feedstock for defense products. There are, of course, synergies between the two units, not only in decarbonization but also beyond, but certainly in decarbonization, we're talking two new electric arc furnaces. We certainly can learn from each other there and create synergies. Last but not least, we shouldn't forget that HKM will be the only steel mill in Europe that is able to provide slabs to the European market, especially once the Russian slabs are pushed out through the sanctions, which will happen in 2028.
There's certainly a market demand for slabs, and here HKM as the sole steel mill in Europe that can deliver that is well positioned. Financing of that transformation will happen through the internal resources, through the transaction proceeds that we're gonna get, and through public subsidies. HKM has been able to secure EUR 200 million in public grant, so that's already signed and sealed. That would certainly then also support the financial attractiveness of that deal. We estimate that this deal will be closed by summer this year. Also here speed is of essence, and we're in full swing together with the current core shareholders to get that deal done. I talked about defense.
We made a great step forward in 2025 to get all the permits from especially the German military services, as well as from some of the suppliers to the military. Good feedback when it comes to the secure material. Good feedback both from the defense industry, but also from the German military on the quality, on the protection features that we have with that steel, so that's good. We're looking at applications beyond military, also in the civil defense, like the Technisches Hilfswerk, German civil defense unit as well as Red Cross, UN, et cetera.
We are broadening our perspective here, but clearly with a strong focus on getting ourselves more known and the product more known in the defense sector. That's what happened in 2025. As said, we extend the value chain, and we use 2026 now to really get into that market, get first deliveries out, prove our quality, and then ramp up from there for the years 2027, 2028 and years to come. Also here, good step forward to create that market for us and create the product and the visibility of Salzgitter in that market environment. Looking at the overall market environment, while geopolitical, that is sort of very acute right now with all the happenings in Iran.
Certainly something that we all need to follow and monitor closely. However, growth rates that we see underlying, especially in Europe, remain stable. We will have a look at how long that war will take. That will certainly have an impact. Overall, we see a certain growth rate globally, but then also on the European side. Germany recovers post-pandemic, at least parts of the industrial sector and the construction sector. We see a pickup on the construction side, which helps our unit in Peine, but also on the plate, in the plate business, especially vis-à-vis yellow goods. With winter now being finally over, we certainly see a pickup there.
Mild recovery through the year and then through the fiscal stimulus package, certainly something that we're gonna see with more enthusiasm through 2027, 2028. First elements of the second half of this year already, as we have said before. Yeah, European steel, I talked about. Let me perhaps look at regulatory framework in Europe. Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism has been implemented as of 1 January. I think it was a success in 2025 to get that through and get that implemented. We know it's not perfect. We absolutely know it's not perfect, and EU Commission also knows it's not perfect.
The amendments are out to improve the regulation, and we expect this to be implemented this year so that we get a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism that is even more robust and more perfect than what we see right now. On the Trade Defence Instrument, the European Commission has made a strong proposal in autumn last year. It has been embraced by the parliament, the European Parliament, and by most member states. The trialogue is ongoing, and we expect no further delay of that Trade Defence Instrument to come into force first of July this year. We already see this also on market steel price market, and I will get to that in a second.
Looking at CO2, of course, the whole debate around the ETS system has put the upward trend to a halt, and CO2 has dropped. Still we are above levels of 2025 if you look at it. However, I would say a normal reaction in all the public debate around ETS. What I think is important is that none of those who are discussing the ETS reform right now questions the ETS system as such. I think it's fair to say that you need to adapt this system to the current environment that we have, and that's exactly the purpose of that long-planned reform in summer 2026.
None of the decision-makers nor those that are lobbying right now is questioning the ETS system as such, which I think is very important 'cause it is a market-based system for CO₂, and certainly something that works. It has at least proven that it works over the last 25 years. Looking at other prices, be it raw materials and energy. Looking at energy, of course, you see the uptick given the Ukraine war. How do we look upon it when we're talking natural gas? More than 50% of our capacity has been hedged for 2026, so we're in that respect not fully exposed to the gas price development.
We're of course closely monitoring and looking into how we can internally react to that. Electricity, same pattern. However, here we are even more hedged. You remember that we have a strategy in which we go for CO₂-free electricity PPAs, and those PPAs of course are a good hedge now for us with that electricity price development. Looking at the raw materials, iron ore spike is due to bunker oil price increase, hence logistic costs that we see through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Coking coal, the decline comes from weather effects that we had, especially in Australia with strong rain. It pushed up prices. Those rains are gone now, hence prices came down.
Certainly, we're also gonna see some effects on bunker oil here on the coal side as well. Perhaps not that much then with iron ore, but certainly we're gonna see certain effects there as well. Now with those, look at the steel prices. Steel price has picked up. Now I'm looking at the left side, blue line, hot-rolled coil. Since summer last year, we have seen a constant pickup in prices. We're north of EUR 700 now, which we haven't seen since 2024, early 2024, which is really good. Other prices like plate and sections are following that trend, not as explicitly, but are following sections. I expect more price development now that construction kicks in in Q2, Q3, regular seasonal pattern that we should see there as well.
On the international side, the spread is widening. U.S. sees the price increase due to the tax regime we have there. China low internal demand, hence lower prices, and Europe is well positioned here in the middle. How does that translate into key figures? Birgit, you will dive into the financial figures quite intensively as-
Yeah.
Let me perhaps focus on some of the numbers that are less financial. Crude steel production went down year-on-year 24 to 25, which is predominantly due to us taking Blast Furnace C in Salzgitter out of operation. Then of course, a couple of adjustments due to low markets. Hence also sales went down. Birgit will guide you through that. With lower production, you also of course have lower Scope 1 CO2 emissions also went down, and the decline in workforce is predominantly due to deconsolidation of Mannesmann Stainless Tubes in 2025.
Some countering effects, especially on the steel production side to ramp up the team that will handle the parallel operation of blast furnace and electric arc furnace. That's what you see in the core workforce numbers. Short shot on the business units. Let me start on the right-hand side, Technology. Again, a very strong year, record year for KHS, third record year in a row. KHS is really performing well. Even though sales have been slightly below EUR 24, but still a very strong development. Very happy with the development of KHS and of course also with the development of Aurubis, which you don't see on that slide, but still worth to mention 'cause those two certainly have carried us through the year 2025. Trading positive.
As said, restructuring has turned out very positively, positive numbers there. Steel processing, steel production, both negative. However, especially on the steel processing side, you see good development on the results side, given the restructuring that we have seen there, given a strong focus on performance, so that's what you see here in the numbers. Steel production, basically on the same level as 2024. Given the reduced sales, I think it also shows that restructuring or the performance measures have gotten some positive effect here as well. Let me close with the dividend proposal. We're proposing and have discussed that with the supervisory board a constant dividend vis-à-vis 2024, EUR 0.2 per share.
This underlines the investment activity that we still have with SALCOS, so cautious on the dividend. It underlines also the headwinds that we had in the market in 2025 and that we continue to have also in 2026, so prudent also on our end here. It also underlines the stability that we owe our shareholders in terms of dividends, so we believe this is a fair representation of their contribution to Salzgitter, hence this is what we're gonna propose to the shareholders then in the summer. With that, I'd like to hand over to you, Birgit.
Thank you, Gunnar.
Let you guide through the financials.
Yeah. Thank you, Gunnar.
Thank you.
A warm welcome also from me to you out there. Happy to have you today. Before I go to the detailed figures, please allow me to reflect on 2025 and also to give you a slight outlook on what is to be expected for 2026 at a glance here. 2025, Gunnar has mentioned it, was still a challenging year for us, especially in the steel segments, where the wind of the economy, of the not recovering economy was still blowing very strong into our faces, especially in the trade segment, but also in steel producing and processing. We were burdened by prices and in trading also by volumes. You have said it, Aurubis and Technology have performed nicely and flattened nicely the challenges we have faced in steel. For us, last year was a year of organizing financial stability.
How have we done this? Number 1, we have concentrated on our performance program, and we have managed to exceed our self-set targets of almost EUR 100 million by 33%. Thanks, Gunnar, you have mentioned it. You left it to announce the exact figure by me. I'm quite happy and proud of that because this is something that a lot of people in our company organize by constantly and every day working on the measures that are behind this program. We also, Gunnar has mentioned this, have focused on continuing our restructuring activities with focus in the trading segment, steel trading segment. Here, despite the strong headwind we have faced, we have managed to be positive. Gunnar has just shown the figures here. We issued an exchangeable bond in order to safeguard our financial basis.
We focused on cash measures. Also when spending money for our investments, there was a very strict discipline, and all of this paid into our net financial position, which stayed below -EUR 1 billion and was thus a lot stronger than what we had forecasted over the course of last year. We have focused on cost, we have focused on financial stabilization and on restructuring. All of this lays a nice, stable financial basis, and I will show you this in the figures as well. What is going to happen now in 2026? Headwinds are going to continue. We see some slight improvement. Gunnar has mentioned the prices. Gunnar has mentioned the EU measures.
However, the German economy is not yet flourishing, and actually, we do not expect a sudden pickup here. We also will see that we had some nice positive one-time effects in the trading unit last year, which we will not see again this year. This will also have an impact. We will still be positive, however, not as positive as driven by the one-time effects. We do anticipate, as Gunnar has laid out in detail, that the measures as well from the EU as well as from the German government will be effective. However, we expect to see some effects this year and to see the full potential of the effects rather starting from 2027 onwards. We see a positive momentum building in 2026 to be continued in 2027.
We are back to black already with our adjusted EBT, with a slight positive number of +2 , and we will be back to a stronger black even in this year as we have guided. Of course, in addition, we will also continue to focus on our own homework, which is the cost improvement measures, which is restructuring, and which is also shaping our portfolio in order to be fit for the future. Looking now at the numbers, we see here that our sales left upper side came out at almost EUR 9 billion, which is, one billion euro below the year before. When I come to the income statement, I will give you some more details where the - EUR 1 billion went, more or less.
We see, if you look at our adjusted EBT and EBITDA figures, we see that of course the EBITDA was slightly reduced compared to one year before, and this is also due to the reduction in the sales revenues. We see the adjusted EBT of a break-even of a slightly positive +2 here. The EBITDA VX and the EBT VX, V stands for valuation and X stands for exchangeable bond, show the figures without the valuation effects coming from our exchangeable bond. Because this impact would not show the real performance of our company. That is why we decided up from 2026 to report adjusted figures here. Right to these figures, you see the EBITDA and the EBT, including the valuation effect of the exchangeable bond, which was -EUR 30 million by the end of last year.
Very strong last year, upper right figure, our business cash flow or gross operating cash flow you see here slightly above half a billion EUR. That is one of the most important figures to us in these challenging times, and you see that we could even manage to improve it by almost 100 million EUR compared to the year before. Our net financial position came out at -954 million EUR, so below -1 billion EUR. Of course, it's negative. However, if you may recap, when we discussed this figure over the course of the last year, we were starting with expecting 1.7 billion EUR, then cut down to 1.5 billion EUR, and in the fourth quarter we discussed 1.1 billion EUR, and we even managed to be below the -1 billion EUR.
Some smaller contribution were also coming from the working capital side here. Looking at our income statement, you see here on the left side our sales revenues of around EUR 9 billion. Before I come to the deviation to previous year, allow me to quickly guide you through the major elements of our profit and loss here, of our income statement. You see that we have three main drivers that are deciding about our results. First, our material costs, which were around EUR 5.8 billion last year, followed by personnel expenses of EUR 1.9 billion, and then by other operating expenses of - EUR 1.5 billion. Here you also see the effect of the valuation of the exchangeable bond of - EUR 30 million that is included here.
Our contributions from our equity companies is stable, slightly above EUR 180 million. You see a negative impact from financing results, and all this leading to an adjusted EBT of +2, including the valuation of the bond of -28. We have taxes of EUR 42 million and a result after tax of -70 million EUR. If you look now at the boxes on the bottom of the slide, you see the deviations compared to last year. Here I would like to mention the most significant ones. First, sales down by EUR 1 billion. What were the major impacts? Major impact first was the deconsolidation of the Mannesmann Stainless Tubes Group, which was not in our figures 2025 but still in 2024.
We have seen quite some turnover reduction in the steel segments, in all steel segments, especially in trade, and mainly driven by price impacts, as Gunnar has shown the price developments, and in this, in the trade segment as well by volume impacts. If we look at our material expenses, we see that our material expenses were a lot better than one year before and could even overcompensate the reduction in sales. Gunnar has shown the development of the material prices, starting beginning of 2024 and coming down over the course of the year and even in 2025. This had really some very supportive impact here. Personnel expenses also slightly reduced due to also MST deconsolidation and as well as restructuring activities from the trade segment.
Depreciation was burdened in 2024 by impairments in the MPT group and HKM, and some minor other impacts which accounted for the most part of the difference compared to the year before of the EUR 300 million that you see here. You see in other operating expenses a delta of EUR -119 million. Here we have two impacts. We have the effect of the exchangeable bond worth EUR 30 million, and we have foreign exchange impacts here as well. You see the counter position in other operating income where we have benefits from foreign exchange effects. You see from our financing activities, we even perform better EUR 31 million than one year before.
All of this comes together in an improvement of EUR 298 million, so almost EUR 300 million compared to one year before if we look at the adjusted EBT. If we have a look at our balance sheet, we see a lot of stability in our balance sheet. The total assets are stable, slightly above EUR 10.4 billion in both years, 2025 and 2024. We see a slight increase in our non-current assets due to mainly our spending in CapEx. We see a decrease in inventories due to prices and also due to working capital management, and we see a stability in the other two positions here. If you look at the equity and liability side, we also see stability. We see an equity ratio which is constantly slightly above 42%.
We see reduced pensions due to a higher interest rate, and we see some movements in our liabilities. Current liabilities have been decreased because we shifted some of our current liabilities to the non-current liabilities, and you also see an increase in the non-current liabilities due to our exchangeable bond worth EUR 500 million, which is reflected here. Coming to our cash flow statement, on the left side, you see our operating cash flow contributions from each quarter, 2024, and next to that, 2025, and you recognize the EUR 505 million, 2025, that I had mentioned before. We can see mainly two things. First, in 2025, in the first three quarters, we performed a lot better than the year before.
You see that in the fourth quarter of 2024, there is quite a huge contribution that was coming from the working capital, mainly revaluation of inventories and accounts payable that we had in line with our cycle's spendings. If you look to the right side on our cash flow statement, you again can see a lot of stability. We started the year with EUR 1 billion of cash and cash equivalents, and we ended the year with slightly above EUR 1 billion. Our cash flow for investments that we needed, almost EUR 700 million, was financed on one side by our operating cash flow and on the other side out of our cash flow from financing activities. Coming to investments, you have now just seen slightly above EUR 700 million.
If you look only at the CapEx block out of this, you see here for 2025, EUR 528 million. I can tell you that 2025 was actually a peak spending year concerning SALCOS, and it was also a peak year concerning inflow of funding. That is why the net number is not as strong as the year before. In 2025, we received funding for the year 2025 and also some funding that were related to the investments in 2024. I have mentioned a disciplined spending in our entities, and you can also see this here in our CapEx spending, which are not cyclical. You see the EUR 299 million here are quite significantly below the two years before. What are we going to expect in 2026 now?
You see a number slightly below minus EUR 900 million, approaching a similar level compared to 2024. However, Gunnar has mentioned the nice additional funding we are going to receive worth EUR 322 million. The cash inflow portion of that, we are expecting EUR 250 million this year. This will bring down the figure of 2026 to slightly above EUR 600 million. Then the difference to 2025 is around EUR 100 million. Now I come to a topic that's really close to my heart, I have to say, because so many people are working on this and are so diligently doing this, and it's so fair that they also can harvest this nice success.
You see the target on the right side, EUR 97 million, and you see next to that what we actually achieved, EUR 129 million. Within this figure, EUR 110 million have a sustainable effect, will constantly bring down the cost basis. This is an overachievement of 32%. What a figure. If you look at the year before on the left side of the graph, you see that we managed in 2024 to organize EUR 65 million of contribution. You see that 2025 number is double of the number of 2024. We doubled the cost contributions from one year to the other. You see that the biggest portions are organized in the segments where we were negative last year, so in steel producing and steel processing.
You may wonder why trade is such an overseeable number, and this is due to the fact that restructuring activities are not part of our performance program. These contributions from restructuring activities are coming on top of the amounts that you can see here. If we look at the contribution of the performance program by year on the left side, you can see in the middle again the EUR 129 million, and on the left side of that you see what we have organized the two years before. Let me remind you that we had an original program which was targeting EUR 250 million, and we doubled that to EUR 500 million. The EUR 250 million of the original program have already been organized by the end of last year.
This makes us confident that we can also manage to organize the remaining portion. The target for this year is EUR 122 million. You see on the right side, not only have we doubled our ambition, we have further increased it up to EUR 575 million because we need it in some entities. The best part is that not we as a board did that the entities themselves did that. You see here how the distribution is. The major contribution comes from steel producing with 60% and 20% from steel processing. I have listed some examples here because there's always the question raised, what exactly are you doing? How are you organizing?
Let me just pick two examples here. Purchasing in our Peine entity, we have reorganized the material mix that we put in our electric arc furnace, and we have replaced part of the scrap components by other iron-bearing materials, with a positive impact on material cost. Logistics has so many impacts if you care about that. We have brought transports from trucks on rail. We have shortened transports. We have combined transports. This has positive impacts on not only cost, but also on the time transports take and of course, also on CO₂. Outlook for 2026. Gunnar has mentioned so much. I'm just going to run over the headlines here. The steel market is expected to recover slightly compared to the year before.
We see positive production trend also for the German mechanical engineering sector and of course, impulses from regulatory and government demand. All this led us to our guidance that we have issued already quite some time ago. Sales of EUR 9.5 billion. Adjusted EBITDA VX between EUR 500 million-EUR 600 million. A pre-tax result VX between EUR 75 million-EUR 175 million. Really be back to black compared to two years ago and even stronger than last year. A return on capital employed marginally above the year before. Outlook for the business units. Gunnar has shown that all business units and segments have suffered in sales in 2025, and we are expecting increased sales in all segments this year. We expect technology, Gunnar has talked about that, to remain strong, to contribute further.
We also expect Aurubis to remain strong, to contribute further. In addition, we expect, especially in steel producing and steel processing, to have also significant higher EBTs compared to 2025. We even expect in the steel production area to be also back in the black. Now let's come to the conclusion before we come to your questions. I will share the conclusions with Gunnar.
Sure.
I will start and then hand over to him. Let me quickly summarize. We managed to stabilize our earnings as forecasted. In P28 in our performance program, we exceeded our target by 33% and doubled our contribution compared to the year before. We focused to restructure and advanced here. We managed to diversify our liquidity and lay a stable foundation here. We are cautiously optimistic for 2026 and see a stronger upward trend from 2027. With this, back to you, Gunnar.
Thank you very much, Birgit. Let me perhaps then conclude. What you've seen is a lot of focus on stability and creating stability and creating resilience in our company on our way of that transformation. It is just following through with our strategy. It's following through with improving the company's resilience going forward. The funding, the SALCOS funding, the additional funding is certainly of great help for us and you mentioned sort of how this will affect our net financial position. I talked you through HKM. I think we have a good case going forward. There's a lot of work to be done. No ifs and buts about that, but we have a clear plan.
We have a clear commitment also from the management team of HKM, and we are very confident that we will be able to take over HKM this year and then also run through the decarbonization program, the transformational program, for HKM, reducing capacity, reducing workforce, making this a slim and an agile steel mill going forward. Technology we talked about is strong, remains strong, has a good perspective also from a market view going forward. Yes, we're gonna need continuous support from the regulatory environments, Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Safeguards are addressed. The ETS now is under review as we talked you through, and we will certainly also constantly remind the German government that energy prices in Germany are structurally higher and too high.
That's certainly something that we are also gonna continue to work on in 2026 and beyond. With that, I think we have set a resilient company going forward that is able to support Germany's economy, Germany's industry, also securing a resilient year 2026 for those with us as a systematically and systemically important foundation for Europe's industry. We're happy to play to be part of that, happy to contribute to that, and happy to support. Now thank you very much for your attention and ask for your questions. Thank you.
Right. There are already some hands raised, so let's start with Andrew Jones, please.
Mm-hmm.
Hi, all. Thanks for the presentation. I just had a few questions. Firstly, just on Ilsenburg with the contribution you expect from the defense steel. I mean, what are we talking about in terms of tons? Can you compare the average margin on some of these defense applications compared to standard steel grades? That's the first one. Secondly, could you try and quantify potentially what the impact of higher energy costs and freight costs could be on your business? I mean, if we just take, you know, where spot is today, can you give us a ballpark for, you know, the annualized impact you expect on your financials? Thanks.
Mm-hmm. Yeah, happy to. Thanks, Andrew. When it comes to defense, contribution is certainly not that much on the volume side, right? I made that comparison in some other occasions that the volume coming through defense will certainly not compensate for the volume loss that we have seen on the automotive sector since 2018. Volume-wise, this is a different ballgame. It will remain a niche market when it comes to volumes. However, of course, price levels, margins, et cetera, are much more attractive in this area. This is also why we have focused on defense and have broadened our spectrum there and in that market and will also remain in that market. That's, I think, if I got it, you're right, the first question, right?
We'll keep any numbers around it.
What we have said is that we're gonna see sales-wise roughly a single-digit percentage in sales coming from the defense market within the next 2-3 years. We are still in a ramp-up phase. We're still sort of in getting all the permits, both from the military but also from some of the suppliers to the military. 2026 is a transitional year, but then I think we can get to a mid- to high-single-digit number when it comes to overall sales. Your second question, impact on energy prices with the current situation we're having in Iran.
As I told you, sort of, the hedging level that we have on the gas side is north of 50%, so that also already reduces it. Our assessment so far with current knowledge is that the impact will be between EUR 10 million and EUR 15 million on an EBT level. Relatively modest, yeah? 'Cause also on the oil side, there's not that much impact on us. As said, electricity is what we are focusing mainly on, and here we are well hedged. It's a limited impact as we see it today.
Does that include freight?
Sorry, you couldn't.
I mentioned freight as well.
Freight. Yeah, freight.
So, uh- Yeah, of course. As I think both of us said, there's an impact on freight rate. That is something we're seeing already, and something we're discussing with the customers already. We have initiated discussions with the customers, 'cause as I said, it's pretty unlikely that we can carry those cost increases all ourselves. There will be. We will have to find agreements, but that's too early to tell. That's really. That hasn't really sort of come to any conclusion yet. There will be a burden sharing across the value chain, I believe.
Yeah. Okay. That's clear. Thank you.
Thank you.
All right, the next question comes from Zurich, from Bastian.
Yeah. Hi. Good morning, all. Can you hear me?
Yes.
Yes. Hi, Bastian.
Perfect. Thanks for taking my questions. I've got a couple, maybe starting off with your outlook for the trading unit. We expect a drop in an environment despite prices having gone up significantly already. At least from looking at your outlook statement for steel production and processing, you don't seem to be disagreeing with that. I guess this would be really the first time that trading lost its correlation to the steel cycle. Even if we consider this EUR 8 million provision release which you had last year, I guess the bar for an improvement should sit pretty low. Now, have you started the year with a lower than usual inventory position, or is it just you being conservative? Maybe you can just help us why your guidance in trading does not really sound a bit more optimistic?
That's my first one.
Yeah. Look, when it comes to the outlook for trading, yes, we have been more on the cautious side also because we see clearly that on the international trading sort of volumes have dropped significantly. There's a lot of uncertainty in the market right now, hence there's low volumes on the international trading. So we have been very cautious on that end. We shouldn't forget that we're not fully through with the restructuring of trading, so there is still some work to be done, and they said that's then also reflected in here. When it comes to inventory, I think we have been, but correct me if I'm wrong, relatively on a par level when it comes to 2026.
Yeah. What we expect in the industry is that before the safeguard measures will be put into place, the stronger safeguard measures, we expect that some will be building stock up in order to avoid to be affected right away from 1st of July. This is also seen by our trading segment, and this is also what makes them cautious.
Yeah. We've seen a similar effect on CBAM as well, right? In Q4. Bastian, I think we discussed it at some point, that sort of they say the market is reacting to those regulatory measures. That's what we take into account.
Okay. Okay, fair enough. Thank you. My second question is, maybe already on the first quarter, which is pretty much done, so, could you please give us a little bit of early color on how the quarter has gone so far? How your order books shapes up for the second quarter? And also whether you've seen any changes in client behavior just in the last two weeks in particular?
Mm. No, we haven't seen any changes in client behavior yet. Yeah. So far, things have developed as planned. I think it's fair to say that the first quarter has been as expected, so better than what we have seen last year. Of course, we had a pretty strong winter, we shouldn't forget that, which had effects on our delivery to customers and had effect on logistics. But it seems like we are able to catch up then in March on that end. Sales wise, slightly below. But overall, I think also the additional cost measures, P28 is continuing, et cetera, are also delivering on that target. I don't know. Birgit, do you wanna add?
No, that's fine.
Yeah.
That's fine. Yeah, the year start was as we have expected, and it is carrying our guidance, especially for the EBT guidance.
Yeah.
Okay, great. Lastly, on the ETS reform, what is your expectation on how the system may be amended? Could we see a slower phase out in free allocations? What do you see as the most likely outcome?
Yeah. Well, I think what has been discussed now, also from Ursula von der Leyen, is to look into the market reserve and postpone sort of the market reserve there, and through that, give a bit of relief from the pressure on CO2 prices. On top of that. That's basically sort of an ad hoc measure, right? It's not the reform of the ETS. I think it's gonna be important to understand, 'cause you have a couple of building blocks of this ETS system, what you want to work with. One discussion is, of course, the slower phase out of the free allocation. One is to review the benchmark process.
That's in the air right now. Too early to at least for me too early to have a firm view on that. What is important though is that whoever we talk to, whoever we listen to is pretty clear that everybody has understood that whatever we do on the ETS should not harm those that have already done their investments. This first mover disadvantage is something that people are very well aware of, and that should be in all cases avoided in any type of reform.
Got you. Okay. Thanks so much. Thanks for taking my questions.
Thank you.
Next question is from Cole.
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I'd just like to follow up a little bit on your supply chain. We've seen across various industries challenges getting certain raw materials, and I'm just wondering, is anything that we should be thinking about? You've been quite clear on electricity and gas hedges, but are there any products or items available in your supply chain that give you pause for concern? On your sales side, I know you mentioned there's been no change to client behaviors yet, but do you expect to see an increase in procurement from your customers just as they build up safety stocks in a longer supply chain?
Well, first of all, we have done a quick risk assessment on the supply chain. Is there anything that is at risk here? We haven't identified something that is absolutely at risk. We talked about energy, raw material, rest. Coal is unaffected right now by the war in Iran, next to bulk oil as said, but unaffected otherwise. On the iron ore side, as I mentioned, we're roughly 50% of our iron ore comes from EU, hence also here the risk is absolutely low. Next to that, we haven't seen any major threats when it comes to logistics. That actually also goes for SALCOS.
It's not that we see any material that gets stuck somewhere, and we would stop our construction process. When it comes to sales, as said, the expectation is there. So far we haven't seen any changes in the behavior of our customers. Of course, we're in discussions with those. What does a prolonged war in Iran means to them, and how do they react? What I can envisage is that some of the customers that are also focusing on imports from outside Europe for their material, for their steel, might actually turn to more a European value chain in order to reduce uncertainty.
Also given that, other producer outside Europe are much more dependent on oil and gas coming from the Persian Gulf, hence hit more than we are with a cost increase, which then also will increase their cost of production and make the import less attractive than it has been perhaps in the past years. We might see a shift call when it comes to behavior and pattern for sales from our customers or from the buying pattern from our customers. Again, it's too early to say right now. We don't see those changes yet.
Thank you. That's helpful. Maybe just following up on HKM. I'd just like to hear your thoughts on the slab market and how you think it's gonna develop over the next few years. Because, you know, slab is not subject to the 50% import tariffs. You know, we're seeing some more slab getting imported now. I'm just wondering to see how you see the slab market.
Mm-hmm
Market developing over the next few years.
I think in terms of cost and cost development, I think the same goes for slab, and I just mentioned, too, any kind of steel product. First thing. Secondly, the slabs from Russia are under a... Now I'm missing the word. The European sort of regime-
Sanction.
Sanctions regime. They will be pushed out by latest September 2028, and we're talking 3.5 million tons of slabs coming out of Russia still into Europe today. Those 3.5 will vanish. In total, we're looking at a slab market of roughly 10 million tons. That is a free market for slab in Europe. With HKM delivering roughly... Of this now, the 3.5 will move out. HKM will have an excess capacity for the market of roughly 1 million tons.
We are very confident that in such a market, a market share of 10% for an HKM, which has proven in the past that they can deliver in quality and time to that market, 'cause we are always have sold slabs into the market from the three shareholders, that is not overly ambitious and should very well work. We shouldn't forget, we're talking then about one of the most modern, most efficient electric arc furnace in Europe. Hence, also from a cost position, we should be able to compete. We are very confident with that, Cole.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
We have Boris, please.
Hi. Good morning. I have two questions. The first may be on HKM. Can you share those key elements that have been agreed upon with thyssenkrupp Vallourec, and what kind of support you would expect from those guys to go further in buying the asset? The second question would be on the TRQs. Do you still expect the TRQs to be voted with a minimal dilution and by the end of this quarter? That leaves a few days to go. The last one, I would be interested to know the split of your production costs between the different kinds of energy, being electricity, natural gas, and coking coal. Because it seems like at the moment you are quite relying on blast furnaces, so potentially less exposed than other players using electric arc furnaces like Turkey at the moment.
Let me try to answer those questions. On the HKM side, we are in negotiations right now. I'm very confident that we're gonna sign this and close this by middle of this year, and as of then get full ownership of HKM. When it comes to the support, Boris, apologies, but we're in those negotiations, so too early to tell. If you take, I think it was publicly stated, we were in discussions on a sale to CE Capital, HKM sold to CE Capital, I think two years ago. If you do some research on those numbers, you might be very close to or relatively close to reality. Let's see.
Again, we're in the middle of the process. Additional funding will be the EUR 200 million that HKM got on public funding, right? We shouldn't forget that. They asked for public funding under the BIK regime and got that approved in December last year, so that will certainly be available for the transformation as well. When it comes to the split of energy costs, I don't have those numbers top of my head, but what you said is absolutely right. We are especially with our site in Salzgitter operating on blast furnaces right now, so we are producing most of our energy ourselves with the blast furnace gas coming out of coal. That is how we look upon our energy situation in Salzgitter.
Peine is certainly given, it's an electric arc furnace is a different thing. I think I mentioned when we talked about the electricity that we are very well hedged on the electricity side for 2026, so we don't see any major deviation or any major impact on Peine through the electricity cost, given the hedges that we have. The green PPAs that we signed over the last three years are a great deal of help here when it comes to Peine. Then you had a third question that I missed out.
Development of tariff quotas.
What was your question on the tariff quotas, please, again?
Do you still expect the Parliament and the Council in Europe to adopt the proposal of the European Commission by the end of this quarter? Do you expect that to be the dilution of the final document to be minimal?
Well, first of all, yes, we believe that we're gonna get a decision that leads to an implementation by first of July with the Trade Defence Instrument. There is a discussion of this carryover effect. I think that's what you're mentioning, what you're talking about, right? We have a clear position as Salzgitter, but also as a steel industry, both through the Wirtschaftsvereinigung Stahl in Germany, but also Eurofer in Brussels, and try to massage that in that this carryover effect will not affect us on the business side, if it cannot be included. 'Cause that certainly is a certain risk. I don't see this as a major risk, but it's certainly unpleasant to have, so we're gonna work against that.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Okay, Maxime, it's up to you.
Yeah. Good morning, all. First question is on natural gas, because at this stage your needs are quite manageable in the current setup, but with SALCOS ramping up from 2027, I mean, this will get multiplied by. I don't have the figure on the top of my mind, but by very high amount. How do you prepare for that, given that gas prices might remain elevated until they are used, or are you starting there to hedge already? Or, and isn't there the risk that the SALCOS setup will be less competitive than traditional blast furnace production due to high gas prices?
Yeah. Well, first of all, if gas prices remain high, it will not only hit us, it will hit everybody, right? In that sense it will just increase price levels overall. In that context then, I think SALCOS will remain competitive. On top of that, of course we then will strengthen our efforts or review our efforts in terms of natural gas and hydrogen and whether hydrogen can compensate for natural gas quicker than anticipated. We have options here to play, Maxime. First of all, increased price level overall, and then we have flexibility with SALCOS when it comes to natural gas and to hydrogen. We certainly can deal with that development. You're right. We certainly have to look at the developments now and how that will impact our overall cost situation going forward, and that is then well beyond the energy part only.
Okay, thanks. Second question is on follow-up on HKM. Could you perhaps detail the impact it will have on your crude steelmaking capacity? Because you already account for some of HKM's capacity for about 30% of it. You have plans to downsize it. What will be the net impact in terms of capacity on Salzgitter? And how long do you think you need to bring the operation back to profits?
What we have at HKM today is a five million ton operation, right?
As far as I understand, it's now ironmaking.
Mm-hmm.
Sorry, it broke up. I hope you can hear me clear, Maxime. Can you hear me?
Maxime, now you're moving. Can you-
Yeah.
Yeah. Okay, good. Good. Looking at HKM, we're looking at five million tons capacity right now. In the end stage, after transformation, we will downsize it to two, max 2.5 million tons. One electric arc furnace that we're gonna operate on-site in Salz-
Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
In HKM. That's capacity-wise, how we look upon it. We're taking out capacity in the overall European market. HKM is not loss-making. It is a cost center as it is operated right now. We will certainly turn that into a profit center, and the business plan shows that we will be able to bring HKM back into or make it a positive contribution to the overall group already by 2027. The interim period is due to capacity adjustments, et cetera, but it will be well-funded through the proceeds that we get through the acquisition, the funding that HKM has gotten themselves and our contribution as well.
Is that fine for you? Maxime, is that fine for you? Did everything come through?
Okay, thank you. Just the last question is on the debt guidance, perhaps on the debt guidance, for this year, because previous year, I think you had spoken of one. Can you hear me? Yes.
Yeah, we can hear you.
Not now.
Cannot really.
You confirm, yeah, apparently. It's on the net debt guidance.
Net debt guidance
for this year.
Yeah. I will take that.
Mm.
Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Of course. Thanks for that question, and I, of course, expected it.
You had spoken previously of. Yeah.
Yeah.
There's a delay in here.
Yeah, there's some technical challenges. Can you hear us now, back? Can you hear us?
Yes.
Okay. Sorry, you seem to be interrupted. Anyway, the most important part is that you can hear us. I think we got your question. It's about the guidance on the net financial position, where we came out slightly below -EUR 1 billion last year, and what's going to happen this year. We expect to be something between -EUR 1.1 billion and not exceeding -EUR 1.5 billion. Yeah? Rather on the lower side, but definitely not exceeding -EUR 1.5 billion.
Okay, great. Thank you. I turn it back now.
Okay, great. Next question is a kind of black box because someone haven't stated his or her name, but let's see who it is and, if we take the question, please.
Yes. Hi, can you hear me?
Yeah.
Yeah. Hi, it's Tristan Gresser from BNP Paribas. Apologies for that. So my first question is on the steel production business. I think in the annual report in the steel outlook, you mentioned that strip demand will not quite cover capacity utilization. I was wondering if you could explain a bit what this means. I think in previous reports, you always were quantifying that business as able to cover capacity utilization, and it sounds a bit more cautious. But with the CBAM, the quota tailwinds, it would be helpful if you could help us understand the volume trajectory there, and also to confirm a bit the timeline you have in mind for the restart of the smaller blast furnace.
Yeah, I think you are spot on with the last blast furnace. As you might know, we have taken that out of operation in 2025 to do a relining. We have then consciously decided not to take it into operation for 2025. It's still not in operation, and that helps us also then to get to that match that you mentioned between the demand and our production. You shouldn't forget that for Flachstahl, for our site in Salzgitter, they're not only producing for the flat business, but also for the plate business for Ilsenburg. We're able, with this flexibility in the system, we're able to adjust according to demand and we have that flexibility through the Blast Furnace C. Is that? If I got your question right, otherwise, please come back.
Yeah. No, it's fair. You do plan to restart the Blast Furnace C at some point this year. Regardless of the demand environment, there seems to be a strong, let's say, tailwind just from the policy perspective. If demand remains steady, you should still be able to grow your volume and gain market shares versus imports. Is that still a fair assessment? I thought it was a fair assessment a couple months back, but I'm just trying to understand if it's still a fair assessment that regardless of the demand environment, we should expect some stronger volumes for the steel production business this year.
Yeah, I think that was our view a couple of months back, and we still remain stable on that view. Otherwise, sort of the, yeah, no. I think we remain stable on that view, that is we should be able to recover some of the demand that might occur through lower imports into Europe.
Let me add some information.
Yeah.
Which may be interesting for you. After the electric arc furnace, there's our hot roll mill, right? We have not brought this capacity down. We fed it with slabs coming from our own production, from our own arc furnaces. We fed it at the end in addition with slabs that we had on stock from HKM from the year before. Please don't be mistaken that we have taken out Blast Furnace C does not mean we have cut down downstream on the value chain capacities, yeah.
Okay.
Good point.
That makes sense. Then a second question is on steel processing. I think you flag good utilization in H1. Energy demand in the U.S. is good. I've seen you've had some recent hydrogen orders coming through. I think the direction of travel is clear. You were getting close to positive EBITDA in Q4, so with those tailwinds, could you be positive EBT at some point during the year, or if not the full year? I'm trying to understand why it might be veiled with some cautiousness for that business.
Well, the caution comes from our market assessment that we have not seen this huge pickup in on the energy side as you mentioned. Yes, you're right. We have been able to earn some contracts on the hydrogen backbone. However, expectations in the previous years have been much higher. This has been slow. U.S. is not a strong market for us. We are delivering pipes into the U.S., yes. But given the tax regime that is there, of course, U.S. is also pretty cautious with buying from Europe, 'cause that is substantial additional cost. However, we see that some of the steel mills, especially on the mid-size pipes in the U.S. are well-booked. U.S. customers are turning also to us. So far, I would say it is not that clearly visible, hence we are a bit cautious on that end.
All right. Maybe a last question on the ETS reform. Do you want more free allocations? What would be a positive outcome for you? I think the steel industry is relatively split on that matter, and you have some carbon allocation, but you're also quite advanced in your decarb program. What do you want from the ETS reform? Also, we've seen over recent weeks and over the past months, European steel equities, including Salzgitter, fall when the CO2 price is falling. That seems counterintuitive, but I wonder if that does make sense to you, and if you could discuss that a little bit.
No, I don't. As I share your view with the counterintuitivity of the CO2 price. As we still run on blast furnaces, we shouldn't forget that. We're talking about SALCOS, but we're still running on blast furnace. Even with SALCOS phase one coming into operation next year, we still have blast furnaces in operation. That's a bit counterintuitive. However, when it comes to the ETS, for me, it is of utmost importance that we don't skip the system as such. It is very clear to me and to a lot of people I talk to that the system as a competitive CO2 reduction system is functioning and should remain in that general setup.
Of course, you can discuss the phase out of free allowances. You can discuss sort of the benchmark of certain assets, be it blast furnaces, DRI, et cetera. Happy to do so, as long as everybody understands that those companies that have taken investment decisions have taken those investment decisions on a certain regulatory framework that was given to us and there was a lot of stability around over the last 25 years. If you change on the ETS system, you cannot harm those first movers. I think that's the most important one to me when looking at the reform of the ETS.
All right. That's clear. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you, Tristan. Are there any further questions? I think it's Tristan's hand.
Yeah
There shouldn't be. No more questions left so far. Thank you for your participation for the last 1.5 hours, and see you next time. Thank you.
Thank you very much.